Mahathir held it together in Malaysia into his nineties. Biden doesn’t project well but I think he’s sound. It’d be great if the Dems had a younger alternative, but….

Would poor voter turn out help Trump or Biden?

Putin's Bitch definitely won't be the GOP nominee, Sleepy Joe might not be on the ballot either and I haven't seen a thing in the last seven or so months to change my mind in either case. I suspect, though, that if Harris is the nominee, low voter turnout will definitely benefit the GOP candidate. IMO, either Gavin Newsom and/or Gretchen Witmer would win at least as decisively as Biden won in 2020.

From four months ago, my predictions have been on track and in some ways better than I'd imagined ...
https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/807006

It would surprise me if you're right, but then I'm a little out of touch.

:chin:

New York attorney general sends cease-and-desist letter to group accused of voter intimidation
^{— Anthony Izaguirre · AP · Sep 21, 2023}

Here's a piece from a Dutch historian and expert on the US about the radicalisation of the Republican Party: https://www.maartenonline.nl/als-een-partij-gek-wordt/

My first vote for president was JFK. I have never seen a presidential election like the upcoming one. The potential candidates are like Looney Tune characters. Please, third partiers, come forth!

7Nov23 Election Day

Dems crushed MAGA^^ in
• Ohio (reproductive rights & recreational ganja)
• Kentucky (governor)
• Pennsylvania (supreme court justice)
•• Philadelphia (mayor)
• Virginia (senate & house!)

:cool: :up:

^^ making autocracy great again

Seems a good outcome for Democrats. Particularly Andy Beshear in Kentucky who had a solid win in a nominally Red state. Hopefully a harbinger for next year.

The 2018-2020-2022-2023 trend is very blue (anti-MAGA) heading into 2024. :up:

Apparently there's nothing to get your base as excited as hatred for the other side. That's how Trump won the first time and now with bland 80-year Mr. Potato-face representing the Democrats there's not enough to hate for the Republicans to get sufficiently riled up.

But certainly politics couldn't be that dumb right? Right? :scream:

IMHO, Hillary threw away the 2016 election by refusing to campaign in the white working class-dominated states she had lost to Bernie Sanders in the party's primaries which, not coincidentally, were the three states where Donald wound up beating her by a combined 7/10ths of a percent. He didn't win the popular vote in 2016 or 2020 and fortunately he's not running against Hillary again. :shade:

The MAGA "base" is a massive hate-cult that comprises only about a third of the electorate; 2024 will be Biden's / Dems' election to lose (much like Hillary in 2016) because Donald (even IF he somehow trundles through the GOP primaries despite by then (1) having lost his business "empire" and (2) being on trial for 'crimes against the United States') can't' win. So far, Benkei, Biden / Dems don't give any indication he is / they are careless enough to buck the trend and throw away next year's election.

The 2018-2020-2022-2023 trend is very blue (anti-MAGA) heading into 2024 — 180 Proof

My view is that DJT is leading the entire MAGA cult off an electoral cliff, lemming-like, and that his lead in the polls will basically amount to giving them enough rope to hang themselves (scary though it might seem in the meantime :yikes: )

From your mouth to God's ears. Leave it to the Dems to fuck up a shoe in though...

Ah yes, the dominoes keep falling ...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/trump-colorado-presidential-ballot-disqualified-14th-amendment :victory: :cool:

This ruling will force SCOTUS to decide the issue for all 50 states ... soon after they decide Putin's neoNazi Bitch – Joe Biden, Barack Obama & George W. Bush does not – have "absolute presidential immunity from criminal prosecution".

whose dominoes are falling?
For the Trumpist, more proof that the system is rigged against Trump. :razz:

And notice from the article:

Nonpartisan US election forecasters view Colorado as safely Democratic, meaning that Joe Biden will likely carry the state regardless of Trump’s fate.

Your predicted SP-1 would run as 3rd party. You apparently predicted the GOP would be sensible.

If a majority of GOP primary voters want a chance at taking back the White House in 2024, then they will show SP-1 the door in the spring (or sooner). Of course, he'll continue to play the whiny victim and run as a 3rd party spoiler to keep the grift going in order to pay his legal bills. Otherwise, SP-1 will take what's left of the GOP down in flames (à la the Hindenburg) with him next fall. :mask:

At this point, it seems a majority of the GOP want him to be the candidate, and believe he will win for the 3rd time. Losing the case against Carroll didn't hurt him. What do you think will turn this around?

This far out from the 2024 election, polling only indicates relative name recognition and nothing more. What will "turn this around" is GOP primary voters deciding they want to beat Biden more than they want to loyally back a proven loser (neither SP-1 nor MAGA candidates have won a majority of voters in general, midterm & special elections, nationally or locally, since 2016 to 2023). Also, SCOTUS overturning Roe v Wade in 2022 was the final nail in SP-1's coffin as all of the "pro-life" (anti-woman) ballot measure defeats in "red states" such as Ohio & Kansas unequivocally demonstrate. IMO, there is nothing non-trivial to "turn around" (and hasn't been since the day Putin's Bitch pre-ejaculated that he's running again for the presidency (i.e. to stay out of prison)).

GOP do not consider Trump a "proven loser" (70% believe he won in 2020), a majority are delighted Roe was overturned, and Trump's indictments just fire up the base. A conviction might hurt him, but I doubt one will occur in 2024.

On the plus side: Trump "only" has about 50% support among GOP. If the field narrows down to 2 (e.g. Trump vs Haley), early enough, there's a fair chance Trump won't get the nomination. Then, I agree, he'll run as a 3rd party and doom the election for the GOP.

You're entitled to your opinon, so we disagree on a number of points. Let's resume this discussion ten and a half months from now, Relativist, and see who got it more right than wrong.

Happy Holidays :sparkle:

GOP do not consider Trump a "proven loser" — Relativist

The election results say otherwise. Republicans have under-performed in every election since Trump's initial win. Then everyone forgets about that in the meanwhile and Trump leads the media on a wild goose chase into conspiracy theories and grievances. And come the next actual election, the results for the Republicans, as distinct from the fevered fantasy of a Trump presidency, will be abysmal. The real shame of the matter is that there’s a whole lot of really important legislative work that needs doing, there are enormous economic, political, and environmental challenges to deal with, whilst MAGA are totally absorbed in what can charitably be designated a circle jerk.

If TS Elliot is right about the world ending with a whimper and not a bang, there’s your whimper.

:100: :up:

It's only natural that what remains of the GOP increasingly has higher approval ratings for Trump but this is accompanied by a decline in overall GOP voters.

I feel safe in predicting that Biden will again win the popular vote... But it remains to be seen if he can carry the swing states he needs to win. Biden's unpopularity may lead many to stay home rather than vote. Biden barely won some states in 2020, so it wouldn't take much of a shift.

I feel safe in predicting that Biden will again win the popular vote... But it remains to be seen if he can carry the swing states he needs to win. Biden's unpopularity may lead many to stay home rather than vote. Biden barely won some states in 2020, so it wouldn't take much of a shift. — Relativist

I predict low voter turnout. I think that will help Trump. GOP voters are old and reliable.

Addendum to :victory: :mask:

"The Coming Biden Blowout"
by David Frum

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/04/gop-republicans-2024-election-biden-trump/673856/

Assuming the Romney/Manchin ticket does not materialize. If it does, all bets are off.

I would vote for them.