Apparently US voters dislike the Biden economy and the prospect of a female president more than they dislike a 'corrupt, incompetent, con artist, racist, rapist, misogynist, nativist-xenophobe-isolationist, hyper-protectionist, insurrectionist, autocrat & convicted fraudster'. :brow:

But that would be insane. Trump voters are mostly not insane. Therefore that explanation is false. It seems to me more credible that Trump won more on policy and not personality. Did the republicans simply make up democrat policies as strawmen, and then carpet bomb the media with it, resulting in a vote against the democrats (rather than for an odious criminal)? I don't know.

I think most Trump voters just don't take any of his faults seriously. If seasoned military officers warned that he's a danger to democracy, people ignored it. This is why it was unfortunate that the media exaggerated the small things for the sake of increasing readership. It all became a wall of anti-Trumpism in which significant facts got lost. It all fed into his persona as the victimized underdog.

At my workplace somebody changed the computer backgrounds to a fierce eagle in front of the flag. That's Trump. He seems fierce and proud in a way that Harris does not. I'm guessing some people voted for that. She's coastal. He's central, if you know what I mean.

It seems to me more credible that Trump won more on policy and not personality — bert1

Trump won on promises. More people are for various reasons dissatisfied with the way things are and where they think they are going and believe Trump will change things for the better. Policy specifics are in short supply. People will find that tariffs are not the magic bullet. When prices increase as a result Trump will place the blame elsewhere.

I think most Trump voters just don't take any of his faults seriously. — frank

Exactly!

If seasoned military officers warned that he's a danger to democracy, people ignored it. - It all became a wall of anti-Trumpism in which significant facts got lost. It all fed into his persona as the victimized underdog. — frank

While Americans think their own government is the problem and as they hate their "elites", they go all in with populism. If the DNC would be populist, the democratic voters would fall for it just like all the Trump supporters.

I cannot emphasize enough this delusional idea that the biggest evil against the common American is the US government. I really had to listen myself with my own ears in the House of Representatives on Capitol Hill a Republican representative (who I had no idea who was) gave a speech to the empty hall about how a big threat the FBI was to the United States. (This actually happened during the last Trump adminstration in 2019).

I can understand that citizens feel like that their politicians are inept and the government officials can be annoying and bureaucratic, but the intense antipathy towards one's own government is truly exceptional. So exceptional, that it really makes populism an election winner.

the prospect of a female president — 180 Proof

This I think has more relevance than is being gave credit for. Not saying it's fundamentally sound or logical, but during a time where there are at least three "hot" international conflicts (soldiers and civilians actively killing or being killed), with several brewing on the back burner, people tend to find more confidence in a boisterous male persona when it comes to their safety and national defense and well-being. Again, not saying it's right, it's just how people largely tend to think, consciously or otherwise. Arguably rooted in biology, which affects the mind more than many care to acknowledge or hold ability to recognize.

:up:

Add to that, the eye-rolling on the part of Democrats that anyone could be stupid enough to believe the outlandish, ridiculous and vulgar things that Trump constantly spouts. But they did! ‘It’s the stupidity, stupid.’

This poll tells us what the left believes the right believes.

If the right told you the only reason you voted for Harris was because you didn't like Trump and because all you wanted was a woman, how might you respond? I think you'd say you voted Democrat because you are Democrat.

A Trump vote was anti-woke, pro police, pro immigration control, pro reduced taxes, pro reduced regulation, pro Israel, pro life, pro drilling for oil, among other things.

Believe it or not, over 50% of the population voted Republican because they are Republican.

Believe it or not, over 50% of the population voted Republican because they are Republican. — Hanover

Nah. It has to be [insert ad hominem here].

But it's worth remembering that not everyone votes. Historically speaking, voter turnout was high, but less than 2020.

But that would be insane. Trump voters are mostly not insane. Therefore that explanation is false. It seems to me more credible that Trump won more on policy and not personality. Did the republicans simply make up democrat policies as strawmen, and then carpet bomb the media with it, resulting in a vote against the democrats (rather than for an odious criminal)? I don't know. — bert1

Not policy in the strict sense. More like meta-policy. Specifically the idea that the institutions are corrupt, society is falling apart and thus some kind of radical change is necessary.

But there's no specific policy for how this change is supposed to look. Hence the vote was more anti-democrat, in the sense that it was against the existing political and media elite.

I think most Trump voters just don't take any of his faults seriously. — frank

Do you think that's because they don't believe he's as much of a scumbag as the corrupt dems and justice system make him out to be? Or is it because they they don't think his crimes and conduct are particularly relevant - they want someone who will do the right things, not be nice to everyone. Your post suggests perhaps both?

Trump won on promises. — Fooloso4

Yes, that's how it seems to me. And promises are policy, even if they are not credible or detailed.

If the DNC would be populist, the democratic voters would fall for it just like all the Trump supporters. — ssu

Believe it or not, over 50% of the population voted Republican because they are Republican. — Hanover

These statements are very interesting, as they suggest that allegiance is to party not policy or personality. I hadn't considered party loyalty (like football team support) as a main cause of voting behaviour, which is dumb of me probably. Party loyalty is perhaps less of a thing in the UK.

@ssu As for DNC populism, what would that look like? I associate populism with right-wing politics typically, but I suppose you could have a left-wing version that encourages victimhood and dependency, blaming employers for everything, blaming ownership of capital for all ills. The trouble is that just doesn't seem like it would be popular!

This poll tells us what the left believes the right believes. — Hanover

Oh you're absoutely right about that. I'm asking in the wrong place!

If the right told you the only reason you voted for Harris was because you didn't like Trump and because all you wanted was a woman, how might you respond? I think you'd say you voted Democrat because you are Democrat. — Hanover

That's really interesting, thank you. Actually I don't think I would. It really never occurs to me to vote according to party loyalty (but I am a UK citizen so that may be why - it might be more tribal in the US). If I were a US citizen, I would have voted tactically for the dems. I don't like the dems on policy grounds, and they are just as pro establishment as Trump and the Republican Party. But the Republicans are even worse. What I would like (in the UK and if I were a US citizen, in the US) is a proportional representation system that means I can vote for a green party, but neither the dems or republicans are going to propose that kind of radical voting reform.

A Trump vote was anti-woke, pro police, pro immigration control, pro reduced taxes, pro reduced regulation, pro Israel, pro life, pro drilling for oil, among other things.

But that's policy, not identity. But then you go on to say people voted because of their identity as republicans. It could be both of course, but you seem to be inconsistent as to which you consider more causal.

It also might be recalled that Trump’s Republican Party is a completely different party to any other Republican President’s party. Many of his policies (or rather impulses) are diametrically opposite what previous Republican Party leaders have stood for. And also note that almost all the principled Republicans who tried to stand up for principles have been essentially expelled from the Party for insufficient loyalty to Dear Leader.

Do you think that's because they don't believe he's as much of a scumbag as the corrupt dems and justice system make him out to be? — bert1

Some people think he was subject to politically motivated attacks, some people think he's a scumbag, but that's in keeping their values. Some people just genuinely like his smug, insulting, uncouth persona.

. I really had to listen myself with my own ears in the House of Representatives on Capitol Hill a Republican representative (who I had no idea who was) gave a speech to the empty hall about how a big threat the FBI was to the United States — ssu

Yes. We're in weird times. I haven't quite put the puzzle pieces together to understand what it means. I've considered the possibility that there's been a lot more lead in the drinking water than anyone realized.

But that's policy, not identity. But then you go on to say people voted because of their identity as republicans. It could be both of course, but you seem to be inconsistent as to which you consider more causal. — bert1

I think you read where I said that people vote Republican because they are Republican to suggest it's just a matter of party identity. There may be some of that, but that's not really what I meant. I meant they are Republican because they believe in Republican ideology.

Just like the reason Christians (for example) go to church. They go because they're Christian, meaning they believe in Christianity, not just because it's their team.

I get how you read what I said as you did, but it's not what I meant.

About 30% of Americans are registered Republicans. There are a lot of independents.

ssu As for DNC populism, what would that look like? I associate populism with right-wing politics typically, but I suppose you could have a left-wing version that encourages victimhood and dependency, — bert1

Left-wing populism exists.

Best example of that in your continent was Hugo Chavez and the politics of Venezuela. It starts from basically dehumanizing your opponents and claim how super powerful these evil people of the elite are. Leftist populism would forget the woke humbug and DEI and simply focus on the working man, the real honest people that "make the true America". It's quite similar to the Trumpist rhetoric (no surprise there), but the politics is of course leftist. And that leftist rhetoric makes Republicans howl.

And that the real purpose: to make Republicans outrage. Outraging your opponent is the key to get the angry people enthusiastic about your cause. Populism nurtures hatred. It's about changing the Overton window in politics.

What has happened is that with the "New Left" thinking so much that all the woke nonsense is important, they've simply forgotten their own base, the workers and the less educated people. That's why the real divide in US policy goes by education. Well educated people still think they can get a good job and the system works for them. But if a blue-collar worker in the rust-belt, the whole system seems to have forgotten you totally. That's the people Trump went for an got.

1) Harris was a crap candidate.
2) Republicans have a more effective propaganda machine.

That’s all this was.

A Trump vote was anti-woke, pro police, pro immigration control, pro reduced taxes, pro reduced regulation, pro Israel, pro life, pro drilling for oil, among other things. — Hanover

Thanks, no doubt you are right. But what is the upshot of that in terms of the poll?

Left-wing populism exists. — ssu

Thanks for explaining. I think I've only ever really heard right-wing populist rhetoric. (I'm in the UK not S. America).

Well educated people still think they can get a good job and the system works for them. — ssu

I too perceive a divide on lines of education. However I didn't see it in terms of jobs, I see it in terms of complexity. Non populist discourse tends to be complex and somewhat difficult, and recommends policies that entail change and uncertainty. Well educated people are likely to be more sympathetic to such messaging. Is that just me being a liberal elitist wanker? For the record, I'm not well off and have a low income!

But if a blue-collar worker in the rust-belt, the whole system seems to have forgotten you totally. — ssu

Are those people right? If so, how susceptible do you think they would be to more leftist populist rhetoric?

About 30% of Americans are registered Republicans. There are a lot of independents. — frank

What does that mean? I don't think we have an equivalent in the UK. Presumably you can be a registered republican and still vote dem if you want? Is it like club membership, you pay an annual subscription and get a free sticker, badge and a scarf?

EDIT: Apparently in the UK only about 1.5% of the electorate were members of a political party.

It also might be recalled that Trump’s Republican Party is a completely different party to any other Republican President’s party. Many of his policies (or rather impulses) are diametrically opposite what previous Republican Party leaders have stood for. And also note that almost all the principled Republicans who tried to stand up for principles have been essentially expelled from the Party for insufficient loyalty to Dear Leader. — Wayfarer

Interestingly this would serve as an argument that Trump is one of the most transformational presidents in recent history.

Presumably you can be a registered republican and still vote dem if you want? — bert1

Yes. In a lot of states you have to be registered with a party to vote in that party's presidential primary. Probably most of the people who chose Trump as the Republican nominee were registered Republicans, so around 30% of eligible voters nominated him.

One assumes registered voters vote their party and they're amazingly close to the same numbers. That means presidential elections come down to independent "swing" voters. A few states known as "purple" states are balanced enough that it doesn't take many votes to push the state one way or the other.

When Biden was elected, it was super close. This time Trump won pretty comfortably. This surprised a lot of us because Harris seemed to be doing pretty well.

I think Americans are tired of institutional capture, faceless politicians, and demagoguery. Harris is a creation and puppet of the DNC; Trump is a thorn in the side of the RNC. Harris doesn't seem to have a mind to speak, and tries to placate everyone simultaneously; Trump speaks his mind regardless of how stupid or ostracizing his thoughts are. The most interesting race in this respect is Trump vs. Sanders, but the DNC put the kibosh on that one.

:up:

Interestingly this would serve as an argument that Trump is one of the most transformational presidents in recent history. — Echarmion

Cancer is transformative, but not in a good way.