Europe's turning point US foreign policy.
Trump and Vance have smashed the old order – how should Europe respond?
The vice-president’s attack on European values signalled a historic realignment. Should the continent seek rapprochement or go its own way? — The Guardian
This assault on democracy has left Europe reeling – and alone
Nathalie Tocci
At the Munich security conference, the US vice-president, JD Vance, accused Europe of abandoning the values of democracy by erecting firewalls to exclude the far right from government; of fearing its peoples, and of restricting free speech. This was to a mainly European audience eagerly expecting Vance to address the big security questions of our time, from Ukraine and Russia to China and the Middle East. His assault on European democracy left the room dumbfounded and seething. His chilling suggestion that the waging war against disinformation amounts to war on democracy felt like a genuinely shocking moment.
Vance’s extraordinary assault, and his electoral interference on behalf of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland in Germany just days out from a general election (he had earlier met the AfD’s co-leader Alice Weidel) have little to do with democracy. Rather he was outlining the Mega (Make Europe Great Again) project in support of the far right across Europe.
The strategic goal is clear: a Europe in which the nationalist far right is empowered is a divided Europe, far easier to subjugate by imperial powers, be that the US, Russia or China.
Are our leaders brave enough to out-Trump Trump?
Yanis42
JD Vance, the US vice-president, has told Europeans that their values are no longer America’s values. Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, added that Europeans “can’t make an assumption that America’s presence will last for ever”. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, has confirmed that Europe will not have a seat at the table when the end of the Ukraine war is negotiated.
[...]
A second option is to out-Trump Trump: to undermine Washington by rejecting any deal that gifts Ukraine’s resources to the US, meanwhile signalling to Moscow Europe’s openness to a new security architecture that involves a sovereign Ukraine in a role similar to Austria’s during the cold war. That would be tantamount to turning a dismal crisis into an opportunity for Europe to liberate and to re-energise itself. Alas, I cannot see our present crop of leaders seizing it.
This was a declaration of alliance with the European far right
Rakhiya Diallo
JD Vance’s speech in Munich took Europe by surprise, but nothing in its content is new. His words were loaded with references that resonate with rightwing populist movements across Europe.
The peril Germany is facing may concentrate minds
John Kampfner
Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was the first shock to the system. The Munich security conference of this past weekend will go down as an even bigger moment. Germans are now forced to realise that the US will no longer defend it; some are beginning to wonder whether the superpower on which they relied might even have become an adversary.
The elections next Sunday will go a long way to determining whether Germans have woken up. Will they finally appreciate the need to use hard power to defend the post-1945 settlement that gave their country a moral purpose? [...]
The peril Germany is facing – with Trump on one side, Putin on the other – may concentrate minds. Merz’s new government will have three competing priorities: to bring order to the asylum system, radically modernise the economy and beef up defence spending. The scale of these challenges may strengthen his hand in negotiations to form a new coalition with either the Social Democrats or the Greens, or possibly both. All the parties will have to show a new resolve and sense of common leadership, characteristics that were sorely lacking in the outgoing government.
They know that now they have nowhere to hide. If they fail to make progress over the next four or five years, the AfD, aided and abetted by Trump and Elon Musk, will be in pole position for the next elections.
The continent is torn between denial and hysterical overreaction
Lorenzo Marsili
Europe’s longer-term interest is to avoid having to scramble for an ad hoc and embarrassingly insufficient response each time a security crisis breaks out – whether this is about meddling, piracy, cyber-attacks or aggression against it, or about supporting the UN in peacekeeping missions internationally.
It becomes clearer every day that if peace is to emerge in Ukraine then European troops will need to be part of the solution. They should not be deployed merely to guarantee European states a minor seat at the table of the negotiations or because Trump and Vance order so. They should be deployed to form the basis of a common, effective, but limited European army that is fit for objectives and for the future.
Ultimately, this is not merely about establishing a European military force, but establishing a European security regime crafted and owned by Europeans, less vulnerable to the whims and tides of US policy.
The vice-president of a nation engaged in tearing down its own institutions goes to Munich and lectures the whole of Europe on its project to “destroy democracy”. Does he hold a meeting with the democratically elected government of Germany? Of course not, he seeks out the leader of Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a far right neo Nazi group dedicated to the overthrow of European democracy.
These people are fascists, the sooner this sinks in the better.
Some good points made by the contributors. But I think the most salient thing to understand is that the Trump administration wants to weaken and if possible break up the EU. It's an economic competitor that can credibly hold its own in trade talks and on tariffs.
Where once it was a partner to the US, in the MAGA mindset it is an enemy. Once you understand that, the comments of Hegseth and Vance are very transparent. Trump and Putin share the same goal on this.
The arrogance and hypocrisy of MAGA is extraordinary. European governments (including the UK) should work on behalf of their people first, and not be tempted to lurch to either the corporate right or the fascist right. The threat from both Russia and America is very real, but the threat of climate change and ecological collapse is the worst of all. Europe must not waver on this.
It's an effort to bring the kind of political polarization to Europe that is happening in the US. — ssu
Brexit was one of the most terrible mistakes in recent EU history. The more divided, the better to them. — javi2541997
It is time to build something where we could be together and united. Even closer than in the European Union. I am thinking of a European organisation where our differences are put aside and we work for a common goal: European values. It will be something where doesn't matter if you are from Spain like me, UK like you Amity or Finland like ssu. It is not necessarily political. Like a citizens' movement. — javi2541997
Do we need this crisis to get real? Or is it now about going to war?
How civilised are we? Will the people even have a say in the matter? — Amity
After the US neocon establishment got dealt a heavy blow, the equally abject European establishment is next in line. This is a good thing - the excising of a tumor that has been allowed to fester for much too long.
There is no crisis. — Tzeentch
I understand the scepticism due to past negative experiences, yet that cannot blur our hopes for the future! — javi2541997
"Human values" are always more linked with this continent than anywhere else. We are not perfect, I know. But the amount of philosophers, artists, jurists, teachers, and all experts on humanities is priceless and beyond description. It seems to me that human values have not been well framed in some nations for a lot of different reasons. — javi2541997
As the preamble to the Constitution acknowledges, we established government precisely in order to “spread the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity.” Government is not inimical to liberty; it is necessary for it.
John Locke himself observed that liberty without law is meaningless, and a free market cannot exist without government regulation. Our children will not enjoy the blessings of liberty if we destroy the environment, for example.
Liberty is meaningful only if we also exercise responsibility, both personal and collective. The question is how to regulate, not whether to regulate. If our goal is to ensure that each person can enjoy the blessings of liberty, then our philosophy must explain the democratic values of humanity, dignity, equality, community, responsibility and the common good. Nor are progressives averse to liberty; indeed, we care about it so much that we want the legal system to make it available to everyone, not just the privileged few. — Democratic Values and the American Constitution Society
A normal citizens' movement. It does not have to be technical. I am referring to the participation and the pursuit of European people for taking care of our continent. — javi2541997
I think that we should ditch the geographical locations and look more towards national values. Like a EU but globally, for stable democracies who operate on human rights. — Christoffer
The crisis is real and global. — Vera Mont
Under perceived threats from migrants, economic recessions, pandemic measures, loss of religious privilege, automation and international terrorism, people are open to offers of simple solutions.
The far right always has simple solutions: blame a powerless minority and punish it. The left always has a more complicated plan it can't explain in terms that fit on a tractor-hat. More importantly, the left never promises its supporters special privileges. — Vera Mont
Immigrants in Europe are an essential force that has a huge economic influence. Immigrants make significant contributions to labour markets, help innovations, and fill critical shortages of skills. The analysis of demographic trends shows the need for immigrants to keep European economies growing as its aging population diminishes. Diverse skills, unique perspectives, as well as strong work ethos that immigrant employees embody boosts general productivity in various sectors. — EIIR - The Importance of Immigrants in Boosting European Community
“Of course family matters enormously, of course we need higher birth rates,” Farage told the event, adding that the UK and wider west had “kind of forgotten that what underpins everything is our Judeo-Christian culture, and that’s where we need to start”.
Restoring a “sense of optimism” that was last afoot in the 1980s and 1990s was essential to reversing decreasing fertility rates in the UK, Farage said.
Calling for some “very, very big cultural changes” to persuade Britons to have children, he went on: “We’ve got to start telling young kids that hard work is good, that success is good, that there are no shortcuts in life, that making money is good.”
[...]
The issue of declining birth rates in the west has been highlighted by Elon Musk and several other Maga-related figures. — Financial Times - Farage calls for more UK births
Calling this “the law of the jungle,” the Daily Wire host then suggested that many women only know how to act civilly under the threat of physical violence, encouraging his audience to steer away from those women when seeking relationships.[...]
Though Klavan recognized that this was “not right” and “not good,” he also gave credit to far-right misogynist social media personality Andrew Tate for having “some kind of panache with young people because he says this out loud, and nobody ever says it out loud.”
Besides being a notorious “manosphere” influencer, Tate has been charged in Romania with rape, human trafficking and forming a criminal gang to sexually exploit women. He’s also facing civil and criminal cases in the United Kingdom related to sexual assault and harassment.
“That doesn't create a responsibility in you to beat your wife,” Klavan concluded. “It creates responsibility in you to find a woman who will respect you so you can treat her as she deserves to be treated.” — The Independent
Like a defense alliance of democracies or something? Hey, I'm warming to the idea. — jorndoe
I'd say that globally, nations with good human rights values and structures should go into an alliance. Based on low corruption and democratic values within each nation. Build a military security, free trade between themselves, free movement, and a strong political collaboration. Then cut out all the nations who can't live up to those standards only to invite them when they prove to be on that level. It gives an incentive to join the alliance/union, but also a security and protection against the undeveloped shitty nations who don't give a shit about human rights. It then becomes easier to pressure these nations on their violations to human rights. And they will not be able to form that great of an alliance themselves, since they operate on so much corruption and authoritarianism that they eventually implode. We can see it in the BRICS collaboration, that the foundation is so shaky it's a parody of actual international collaboration.
I think that we should ditch the geographical locations and look more towards national values. Like a EU but globally, for stable democracies who operate on human rights. Of course there's fine details in this, but as a broad concept, there's no reason the EU couldn't expand into being in alliance with countries like Canada and New Zeeland for example. Opening up free trade and travel like that will expand the power of the union into something more than just some defense against Europe spiraling back into world wars again. — Christoffer
Below is an approximate composite ranking of 100 nations that tend to score very highly on both democratic stability and low corruption. (This list combines insights from the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index 2022 and Transparency International’s CPI 2022. Because each index uses its own methodology, and because “stable democracy” and “low corruption” can be measured in different ways, this ranking is only an approximation and should be used with that caveat in mind.)
Top 100 (Approximate Composite Ranking):
1. Norway
2. New Zealand
3. Finland
4. Denmark
5. Switzerland
6. Sweden
7. Netherlands
8. Luxembourg
9. Canada
10. Australia
11. Germany
12. Ireland
13. Austria
14. Iceland
15. Japan
16. United Kingdom
17. Estonia
18. Slovenia
19. Belgium
20. Spain
21. Portugal
22. Chile
23. Uruguay
24. Costa Rica
25. South Korea
26. Czech Republic
27. Poland
28. Lithuania
29. Latvia
30. Slovakia
31. France
32. Israel
33. Taiwan
34. Italy
35. Romania
36. Bulgaria
37. Croatia
38. United States
39. India
40. Indonesia
41. Mauritius
42. Malta
43. Cyprus
44. Georgia
45. Montenegro
46. North Macedonia
47. Albania
48. Serbia
49. Hungary
50. Turkey
51. South Africa
52. Armenia
53. Brazil
54. Mexico
55. Argentina
56. Colombia
57. Paraguay
58. Ecuador
59. Peru
60. Bolivia
61. Moldova
62. Kosovo
63. Jamaica
64. Trinidad and Tobago
65. Barbados
66. Guyana
67. Suriname
68. Fiji
69. Samoa
70. Vanuatu
71. Panama
72. El Salvador
73. Honduras
74. Andorra
75. San Marino
76. Liechtenstein
77. Monaco
78. Ghana
79. Namibia
80. Senegal
81. Cape Verde
82. Malaysia
83. Nepal
84. Bhutan
85. Philippines
86. Sri Lanka
87. Solomon Islands
88. Papua New Guinea
89. Kiribati
90. Tuvalu
91. Grenada
92. Saint Kitts and Nevis
93. Antigua and Barbuda
94. Dominica
95. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
96. Bahamas
97. Belize
98. Guatemala
99. Bosnia and Herzegovina
100. Federated States of Micronesia — GPT-o3
The shift has already taken place, whatever the next election in Germany, Sweden or Canada throws up on top. Liberal parties have been pulled farther and farther rightward, leaving labour either out of touch or taking up what used to the center. The only thing that will reverse this trend is a wide enough popular dissatisfaction. — Vera Mont
There is hope in that. The Trump regime is so drastic and crude in its actions, protests have already begun. People are finally noticing that he and his gang mean to carry out all the threats they made over the last several years. This extreme example might - just barely might - wake up other nations to the peril they're courting. His childishly spiteful trade and defence policies might - just possibly - spur greater co-operation among the countries where democracy is still alive. The extreme insanity of Trumpism just maybe possibly might perhaps trigger a global reaction against all similar agendas before it's too late. — Vera Mont
can GPT combine more factors? In a way that's meaningful? — jorndoe
All those benefits are beside the point. European countries have a long tradition of national identity, national pride, patriotism; long histories of war for domination of other nations or liberation from other nations. Two thousand years of patriotic fervour, stoked by every monarch, prelate and premier who needed to raise and army doesn't go very far underground in one or two generations: the liberal veneer of prosperous times shatters at the first rousing "make us great again" speech in anxious times.The issue of immigrants. People ignorant of their value e.g. in the NHS, tourism, agriculture, etc..
Not to mention they fill the gap in decreasing populations in different European countries. — Amity
Protests in the US can grow quite heated and Americans, unlike most civilian populations, are heavily armed. Violent clashes are inevitable; the regime has not yet had time (if they're even competent to do it) to organize an effective enforcement agency. Civil war may yet be averted, but if they get frightened enough, the Trumpites will surely call for martial law. Then it will depend on which side the federal, state and municipal armed forces take. (My guess is, half and half, which ensures a long and costly civil war, like the last one.)There are always possibilities, until the clamp down of prison, torture and death for those who protest.
Being criminalised for protest happens even in a so-called democracy like the UK. — Amity
We do not negotiate with terrorists. — Vera Mont
Trump blames Ukraine over war with Russia, saying it could have made a deal
President hits back at Ukraine’s complaint that it has been left out of US-Russia talks, saying it had years to make a deal ‘without the loss of much land’
Sean Savett, who was spokesperson for the White House National Security Council under then president Joe Biden, said in a social media post: “Sounds like Trump bought Putin’s propaganda hook, line, and sinker.
“A reminder no one should need: Putin started the war by invading Ukraine unprovoked and his forces have committed war crimes against the Ukrainian people. Russia is the party responsible for this war continuing.”
European leaders are increasingly fearful that Trump is giving too many concessions to Russia in his pursuit of the Ukraine deal that he promised to seal even before taking office. But Trump insisted that his only goal was “peace” to end the largest land war in Europe since the second world war. Trump said he was “much more confident” of a deal after the talks, adding: “They were very good. Russia wants to do something. They want to stop the savage barbarianism. — The Guardian
Protests in the US can grow quite heated and Americans, unlike most civilian populations, are heavily armed. Violent clashes are inevitable; the regime has not yet had time (if they're even competent to do it) to organize an effective enforcement agency. Civil war may yet be averted, but if they get frightened enough, the Trumpites will surely call for martial law. Then it will depend on which side the federal, state and municipal armed forces take. (My guess is, half and half, which ensures a long and costly civil war, like the last one.)
Will that be enough to galvanize the still-sensible nations? I hope so.... I'm still feeding all those things with feathers outside my window. — Vera Mont
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