@Wayfarer,

You could be right. Time and changing circumstances will tell.

smile

Interesting development.

The Nats have split from the liberals.

Nationals leader David Littleproud has confirmed his party won't be re-entering a Coalition agreement with the Liberal Party. — ABC

The Nats have split from the liberals. — Banno

Yep, and now all that needs to happen is unions and farmers to find common cause and form the farmers and consumers union and the FACU political party.

Littleproud's proudest day! What do you reckon, one more election and the Nats are gone into the political wilderness with the Kaffir Party or back into bed with the Libs?
The fallout for the Nats should be interesting at the next round of states' elections.

smile

It’s a temporary separation, ‘let’s live apart and work things out’. Early in the election cycle. They have no chance of any kind of electoral success as separate parties, if by some miracle the liberals come back from the dead they’d still need to form a coalition govt with the nationals to create a majority.

Scenario one: the Libs finalise their divorce the Nats, clean out all the right wing nutters and adopt genuine liberal policies with a social conscience and become a proper liberal opposition to Labor

Scenario two: The Libs blame Dutton entirely for the disaster - after all, he's gone, and no one else wants to take any responsibility; they take the money from Rinehart, indirectly of course, and keep to the right, business as usual, reactors and all, re-form the coalition in a year or so and repeat their mistakes next election.

Now, which of these is more likely to come to pass?

I think, neither. The liberal-conservative parties can only be a realistic electoral prospect in coalition. If the separation is permanent I can’t see how they can ever be a real force again. I think Howard thinks the same, and most of the old guard as well.

Some analysis the other day, SMH or ABC, said that the collapse of the Liberal vote ultimately goes back to the climate war decisions made by Minchin and Abbott. There was a photo of the infamous group hug when they overturned the carbon tax, which was actually working exactly as intended. Then there was the disgraceful knifing of Turnbull by the climate deniers and the takeover by the Spud. That is what allowed the Teals (environmentally-aware conservatives) to scoop up the conservative vote.

By the way, as an afterthought - is the ALP roughly equivalent to Canada’s Liberal Party?

That looks like the second option.

The ALP specifies socialism in it's charter, so I doubt it.

The Australian Labor Party is a democratic socialist party and has the objective of the democratic socialisation of industry, production, distribution and exchange, to the
extent necessary to eliminate exploitation and other anti-social features in these fields. — ALP Constitution

Scenario two: The Libs blame Dutton entirely for the disaster - after all, he's gone, and no one else wants to take any responsibility; they take the money from Rinehart, indirectly of course, and keep to the right, business as usual, reactors and all, re-form the coalition in a year or so and repeat their mistakes next election. — Banno

I think this one.

I don't agree that they will maintain the hard right that Spud inflicted on them. Ley says they have no choice but to move to the centre, and I think they will have to do that, otherwise the Teals will continue to eat their breakfast. (And, by the way, the Teal Nicolette Boele seems to have beaten the Liberal Gisele Kapterian in Bradfield, albet by a vanishingly small margin probably requiring a re-count. Incidentally there was a very minor social media scandal when 'Boele was forced to apologise for telling a 19-year-old salon employee that her hair washing was “amazing, and I didn’t even have sex with you”. Careers have died on less. )

So does Ley have an expiry date?

Or will she be kept as a figurehead, a small "l" Liberal, so they can pretend to be reforming?

I don't think the Boys will be able to stand back and let her lead. I don't think she has broad support in the Liberal establishment. 29 votes to 25 in the party room. I'm guessing it's less out in the suburbs. "Her new demographic would be the young professionals and first-generation Australians in the major cities trying to get ahead and into their first home" (Saturday Paper) but these are not the people you will find in a typical Liberal Branch.

She may surprise. I doubt it.

Ley says they have no choice but to move to the centre, and I think they will have to do that, otherwise the Teals will continue to eat their breakfast. — Wayfarer

Yes, but... doing so supposes support for a move to the centre. See this article:

Retiring MLA Nicole Lawder admitted on the ABC's election night broadcast that some within the ACT branch of the party were less interested in being elected than pushing it ideologically to the right. — ABC News

This has been the state of play in the ACT, where the Liberals have not won for twenty years. The Boys will not reform, becasue ideology is more important than government.

On Saturday night, Ms Lawder lashed out at what she described as "a couple of very powerful players in the party" who "have pushed the Liberals too far to the right".

"I think there are some people that are so ideologically driven that [they] would prefer to sabotage the pathway to winning," she said.

Lawder is a former MLA and knows her stuff.

And I think there is a pretty good chance of something similar occurring at Federal level.

Plus you have Rinehart stomping around saying that they're not far enough to the Right. And that dreadful Madame Lash on Sky News (Abbott's former dominatrix). So, yes, there are nefarious forces.

I don’t think the Libs are pragmatic. They seem driven by hard ideology and certain people they are in the thrall of. They need a skilful, charismatic leader and an internal ‘night of the long knives’ in order to transform. Is SL that leader? I’m skeptical. I also don’t think they care for the citizenry’s opinions- they think voters are wrong and responding to lies. Thoughts?

I quite agree.

Downside is that the Labor gov will have no strong supervision. The Greens will be the effective Opposition, via their power in the Senate, but the perks of opposition will go to the Libs in the reps - that is, the Greens will have very little admin support.

Just to add, the Libs are far more ideologically driven than the more pragmatic ALP. Hence the dearth of policy.

My younger sister’s example is instructive. She’s married to a public prosecutor, lovely chap, but straight out of a Somerset Maugham novel. Very old-fashioned in his view, a staunch conservative (for which reason we never discuss politics.) But the instructive thing is the depth with which he (and my sister, by way of osmosis) hated Malcolm Turnbull. Far more than anyone on the actual Left, so far as I could tell. And I think Turnbull was the last actual Liberal (as distinct from Conservative) to lead the Liberal Party.

Me, I liked him OK, although I thought he tended towards being vain, in a Warren Beatty kind of way. But I always completely supported his attempts to re-introduce some kind of sane climate policy, and was really annoyed, verging on outraged, when he was rolled over that attempt. And now, I think, the Lib-Nat coalition are reaping the bitter fruits of those decisions. And the Nat side still hasn’t learned anything from it.

The Libs consider themselves to be the natural party of government, in their entitled way, despite never actually achieving enough seats to govern in their own right an having to bed down with the Nats.

The natural party of government, so far as there is one, has always been the ALP. The only party to gain sufficient seats.

Partly becasue they had to accomodate the nats, and partly becasue of their funding arrangements, they could not maintain a liberal ideology. It has become increasingly conservative.

There’s this kind of Darth Vader force field effect from the political right. You see it with Trump. Maybe the false illusion of certainty in a world where nothing is.

We've been moved to the Lounge. Less people, more comfortable chairs?

Apparently the Libs and Nats are back together again already.

Until next week?

The conditions and policy directions accepted in these negotiations may tell us more about which scenario will out.

We've been moved to the Lounge — Banno

We felt that philosophy was being diluted on the main page so we closed the politics and current affairs category and moved several threads to the Lounge (Trump, Ukraine, maybe others). This one slipped through the net.

We've been moved to the Lounge. — Banno

It lasted a lot on the main page. Don't be depresso; I will still be reading the updates on Australian politics. :smile:

I knew it was going to happen sooner or later.

Keeping us on the main page highlighted the calibre of the brilliant folk on this thread, no doubt leading many casual visitors to become members.

But it is comfortable in the Lounge, if a bit out of the spotlight.

Keeping us on the main page highlighted the calibre of the brilliant folk on this thread, no doubt leading many casual visitors to become members. — Banno

Sometimes fairness isn’t fair.

I wonder how much more rain will be needed until the Nats and their supporters realise there is a climate problem.

"moderates are hijacking the devastating election loss to suit their agenda" according to Four Corners.

And so it begins...

Ah, well. The lounge provides me with a nice echo chamber.

But the instructive thing is the depth with which he (and my sister, by way of osmosis) hated Malcolm Turnbull. Far more than anyone on the actual Left, so far as I could tell. And I think Turnbull was the last actual Liberal (as distinct from Conservative) to lead the Liberal Party. — Wayfarer

Lots of conservatives hated him for his advocacy of a republic which made him anathema to Liberal tradition. And they also hated him for his popularity with Labor voters. He was too urbane and sophisticated.

I wonder how much more rain will be needed until the Nats and their supporters realise there is a climate problem. — Banno

Climate change is unlikely to have any impact upon them. Many will come to accept the position that change has come but that it is a natural cycle which humans can't influence.

It’s a temporary separation, ‘let’s live apart and work things out’. Early in the election cycle. They have no chance of any kind of electoral success as separate parties, if by some miracle the liberals come back from the dead they’d still need to form a coalition govt with the nationals to create a majority. — Wayfarer

Well predicted

Sometimes fairness isn’t fair. — Jamal

Yeah, sometimes it's just blonde. Gravity is not too dependent upon page number.

Just a thought or so.

slight smile

Beats me why they’re getting so much media attention. It will be good when Parliament resumes and there’s some actual legislative action to talk about.