Ha! I looked over and saw the Asian markets plummeting, crude oil shooting up. Somebody said "war."

My guess is it'll probably be a war, but I'm open to hearing how this is all somehow a 4D chess negotiating tactic by Trump from his supporters.

My guess is it'll probably be a war, but I'm open to hearing how this is all somehow a 4D chess negotiating tactic by Trump from his supporters. — Mr Bee

You're really open to that? :lol:

Sure I'm up for a laugh. Besides Trump did say that Israel should strike Iran's nuclear sites last October:

Trump says he thinks Israel should ‘hit’ Iran nuclear facilities By AFP

Sure I'm up for a laugh — Mr Bee

I don't think this problem is coming from Washington. It's Netanyahu.

What is Iran going to do about it? Their last attack on Israel couldn't get past their missile defenses. Hezbollah has been severely weakened. Iran will be under intense pressure to retaliate in a way that hurts Israel. How do they do that?

Chatgpt:
What’s Likely?
Immediate: Expect a mix—proxy rocket/drone strikes into Israel’s north mixed with ballistic missile launches aimed at military targets. Some will break through.

Cyber attacks targeting critical infrastructure.

Broader escalation: Possibly Gulf shipping attacks.

Western escalation? Minor risk, unless Iran directly hits U.S. assets.

Don’t expect nuclear/civilian strikes—that would trigger full-blown war. They’ll calibrate to hurt Israel enough for domestic pride and deterrence, without crossing Israel’s red lines.

Bottom line: Iran needs something visible to save face. Expect rocket/missile salvos and proxy action soon—and cyber subterfuge. But they’ll avoid all-out war.

100%.

I don’t think Trump is stealing for a fight here, but the hawks around him surely are. They’ll be saying now is the time to take Iran out, they are weak and Hesbollah are on the back foot.
Trump will go along with it and try to use it to his advantage. Plus it gives Netanyahu cover for the genocide in Gaza and keeps him in power. If Isreal is at war with Iran, he can cancel elections.

I agree. I don't think Trump wants anything to do with this. War with Iran means higher gas prices, a lower stock market, higher inflation and higher interest rates.

I don’t think Trump is stealing for a fight here, but the hawks around him surely are. They’ll be saying now is the time to take Iran out, they are weak and Hesbollah are on the back foot.
Trump will go along with it and try to use it to his advantage. Plus it gives Netanyahu cover for the genocide in Gaza and keeps him in power. If Isreal is at war with Iran, he can cancel elections. — Punshhh

Yeah, the only good thing from Trump is that he actually oppose the concept of war since he’s more interested in business deals than military geopolitics. The problem is that he’s too weak when shit hits the fan and it seems that people around him pressured him to accept all of this, that’s why he went from ”talks with Iran” to a big shrug over night, people around him put him in place and made him a puppet in this matter.

But even if this is all Netanyahu, which is most likely, it could drag the US into it. With so many militaries, resistance groups and terrorist groups weakened, it may be the only point in time to conduct a major invasion. With Israel leading the charge, the US might utilize it to not get blamed for initiating the war and rather ”act to stabilize the region” as an excuse to obliterate the problem of Iran.

We’ve seen that the US has indeed strengthen their presence of bombers close to Iran.

I think this incident might be the watershed where we all get used to shit going down and the US is not involved at all, except to protect its interests. The US isn't going to faceplant in the Mid-East trying to fight the tide of chaos. The US isn't going to go another trillion dollars into debt. We can all just breakout the popcorn and watch like everybody else in the world. We're just like everybody else. This is nice.

I think this incident might be the watershed where we all get used to shit going down and the US is not involved at all, except to protect its interests. The US isn't going to faceplant in the Mid-East trying to fight the tide of chaos. The US isn't going to go another trillion dollars into debt. We can all just breakout the popcorn and watch like everybody else in the world. We're just like everybody else. This is nice. — frank

These kinds of things have a way of spiraling out of control. 20% of the world's oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz. Suppose Iran chooses to shut that down to inflict economic pain on Israel and her backers. Well, now the U.S. president is looking at a catastrophic rise in oil prices, which will lead to more inflation and higher interest rates, which is usually the death knell for an administration. The president is under tremendous pressure to reopen the Strait, so he attacks Iran's navy, but unlike 1988, Iran doesn't back down. So now what?

These kinds of things have a way of spiraling out of control. 20% of the world's oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz. Suppose Iran chooses to shut that down to inflict economic pain on Israel and her backers. Well, now the U.S. president is looking at a catastrophic rise in oil prices, which will lead to more inflation and higher interest rates, which is usually the death knell for an administration. The president is under tremendous pressure to reopen the Strait, so he attacks Iran's navy, but unlike 1988, Iran doesn't back down. So now what? — RogueAI

Yes. Although smashing someone's nuclear capability and military leadership is the kind of thing you would do before you completely level the capital, plow over the rubble, and sow salt. We'll see.

The US has its own oil reserves now, thanks to fracking. We produce 60% of our oil usage. We could increase that. I think the door is closing on any way out of an inflationary recession though. I don't think the US will act unless somebody blows up an American ship.

Israel has been itching for this forever. They realize they have an incredibly weak and stupid manchild in the White House, of which the weak and spineless Republican Party now worship like Jesus— so it’s an excellent strategy on their part.

They won’t be stopped in any way by Trump, not even when oil starts to spike — which will happen if Iran is backed into a corner. Maybe we’ll get “Bibi, STOP!” or some other harsh Tweet. Because that’s been effective so far.

Well, it's on.

Israel uses precision strikes to target senior military officials, while Iran indiscriminately bombs Tel Aviv. Rockets are heading towards Jerusalem, and I wonder what would happen if Iran were to hit the Dome of the Rock. In any case, the Iranian regime must be toppled now. No other way forward.

What a shocker that the genocide-loving racist is cheering Israel on.

Are you sad that Israel is ethnically cleansing Iran's nuclear capabilities from the planet? :fear:

Are you sad that Israel is ethnically cleansing Iran's nuclear capabilities from the planet? :fear: — BitconnectCarlos

Haven't we been here before? I remember another Middle Eastern adventure predicated on stopping Iraq from getting nukes. Turns out, they had no nuke program. And the adventure turned into a horrorshow. Aren't you concerned that can happen here?

I don't think this problem is coming from Washington. It's Netanyahu. — frank

Obviously Netanyahu is the one pushing for this the most and he luckily has people in the White House like Biden and Trump to do his bidding. It's funny to think just 10 years ago we got a nuclear deal with Iran which Trump foolishly ripped up in his first term, and Biden foolishly didn't get back into during his term.

It's funny to think just 10 years ago we got a nuclear deal with Iran which Trump foolishly ripped up in his first term, and Biden foolishly didn't get back into during his term. — Mr Bee

Thinking of the US as foolishly causing the world's problems is a coping mechanism. Without it, you'd have to face the fact that it's all just meaningless violence.

IMHO, the mistake would be for Israel to launch a ground invasion and maintain an occupation in Iran. Israel's objectives here are more limited.

According to the UN, Iran basically broke that deal.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/06/1164291

Thinking of the US as foolishly causing the world's problems is a coping mechanism. Without it, you'd have to face the fact that it's all just meaningless violence. — frank

One in a long line of strawmanned, stupid comments.

The draft for Thursday’s resolution highlights serious and growing concerns since at least 2019 that Iran had failed to cooperate fully with the UN agency’s inspectors.

I'll leave you to guess what happened before 2019 that led to that happening.

I'll leave you to guess what happened before 2019 that led to that happening. — Mr Bee

:up:

It wouldn’t be that some know-nothing imbecile tore it up for no reason other than because a black man brokered it, would it?

Uncle Sam using its rabid pet chimpanzee to sow chaos in the Middle-East - what else is new?

I'll leave you to guess what happened before 2019 that led to that happening.

Apparently pallets of cash for a whole lot of nothing. There were other signatories. They were foolish for staying in a deal which Iran would eventually break.

The hawks are spreading the narrative that Iran could have a workable bomb within 4 days. Even the BBC is repeating this now. It reminds me of the 45 minute claim prior to the Iraq war. They’re all ready to step in if Israel suffers any kind of serious hit.

The idea was to keep a lid on Iran, it was working. Until Trump came along. The only way to stop them now is to topple Iran, or invade and occupy. This is now existential for Israel and it didn’t need to be. Still it keeps Netanyahu out of jail a bit longer, I suppose. So much winning.

It didn’t work, though. The rules of the deal never changed and was still in place.