How else am I supposed to interpret I focus on the violence that my country has a direct hand in. — BitconnectCarlos
It would require the U.S. to take Tehran, this is what the hawks and the Israeli lobby are trying to convince Trump to do now. Hopefully there is someone with a level head in that room.Yet I have trouble envisioning the IDF taking and occupying Tehran. And this is the real problem here: attacking Iran is problematic, because a land war would be very, very difficult.
the Hebrew Bible which is sought to be brought to life by many Israeli extremists (in the 21st century) does encourage genocide and mass destruction. — Eros1982
Well, in the end Operation Peace for Galilee wasn't a huge success as in the end it created Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel had to withdraw from Lebanon in 2000 after a long low-intensity conflict. The 2006 Lebanon War wasn't either a huge success and Hezbollah then wasn't destroyed.I am saying this because Israel has never lost a war. — Eros1982
He finally got his war after decades for craving it.Netanyahu may be destroying Israeli and Western institutions, but he definitely won this war on Friday --when Trump gave him the green light to attack. — Eros1982
Supreme Leader Khamenei says Iran won’t accept “imposed war”, “peace”, and warns any US strikes on its territory will have “serious irreparable consequences”.
Well, if they can continue firing rockets at this pace for weeks, that's a clear sign that Israel would have failed. If no rockets are fired to Israel, then Israel has achieved it's objectives.Iran is wasting its rockets on Israel. The regime would do better if it wins time, while spreading chaos in the region surrounding Israel (Lebanon, Syria and Iraq). If Iran chose this path, a US invasion or Israeli nukes would not make sense. — Eros1982
Hopefully indeed, as that is a really foolish idea. Just look at the size of Iran. And unlike Iraq, it's a quite unified country and likely would put up a resistance. The armed forces are nearly 1 million strong and Iran has 85 million people.It would require the U.S. to take Tehran, this is what the hawks and the Israeli lobby are trying to convince Trump to do now. Hopefully there is someone with a level head in that room. — Punshhh
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reiterated in a phone call with Iranian president the Kingdom’s condemnation of the Israeli strikes on Iran saying they have “disrupted” dialogue aimed at resolving the crisis, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported on Saturday.
Speaking with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, MBS underscored Saudi Arabia’s “condemnation and denunciation of these [Israeli] attacks, which undermine the sovereignty and security of the Islamic Republic of Iran and constitute a violation of international laws and norms.”
“The Crown Prince stressed that these attacks have disrupted ongoing dialogue aimed at resolving the crisis and have hindered efforts to de-escalate and reach diplomatic solutions,” SPA reported adding that MBS also offered his condolences to Pezeshkian for those killed by the attacks.
The Crown Prince “emphasized the Kingdom’s rejection of the use of force to resolve disputes, advocating for dialogue as the fundamental principle for resolving differences.”
It's not hard. If one were to focus on, let's say, abuse towards men, one would likely become a men's rights activist. — BitconnectCarlos
Yeah — and it would be they ignore the abuse of women. At least in your world. — Mikie
No. As I said, if you shoot a man that didn't shoot you, you simply need a lot explaining to do to the judge, because you will be the one that shot. And at some times, it will, even under law, be legitimate. But naturally there are quite a high bar for this.
When Israel has a nuclear deterrent, those countries who see Israel as a threat to themselves will try to get a nuclear deterrent. But you simply assume that they aren't seeking a balance, their own deterrence, but their motive is simply to destroy Israel, even if this put their own people and country to the peril of the many nukes that Israel has. — ssu
We never can know how many Americans (and Japanese) would have died if Operation Downfall would have been initiated. And naturally we forget the huge importance of the Soviet attack in Manchuria for the Japanese to admit to surrender. — ssu
How about the Arabs? It would be interesting how Israel would react if the Saudi's would get a nuclear deterrent. What if the Egypt would also get a nuclear deterrent? Israel does have a peace agreement with Egypt (which it doesn't have with the Saudis). — ssu
And that's not relevant to this scenario, where Israel has a nuclear deterrent and enjoys total military dominance over it's rivals. And intends to keep it so by attacking them constantly.In my example, I was thinking of a scenario in which you are unarmed and face an enemy in the process of arming himself. Nobody is talking about Israel destroying Iran entirely. — BitconnectCarlos
One could educate oneself on it and not believe the propaganda. Yet in the Middle East one has to really try to make the difference with the rhetoric to the people and the real underlying policies and strategies.It's impossible to know the Khameini regime's true motive. — BitconnectCarlos
Have you ever thought about the possibility of Israel's enemies wanting to acquire a nuclear deterrent as to be a deterrent or do you genuinely believe that they are fantasizing about starting a nuclear war that likely will be as devastating if not more devastating for their people than the invasion of the Mongol Horde?The world, ideally, would have stopped Iran from going nuclear years ago. It shouldn't be left up to Israel, ideally, but here we are. — BitconnectCarlos
That cannot be interpreted as Israel has to die and we have destroy it, even if we die trying.Khameini's words: "It doesn't matter if we die. Iran is not important, Islam is important." — BitconnectCarlos
I haven't read this, but is has been known for a long time that Soviet Union joining the fight against Japan and it's rapid advance through Japanese defenses was a far bigger issue to the Japanese than American historians give credit.Operation Downfall would have likely been extremely devastating. The typical American (Western?) position is to justify the atomic bombings as a necessary evil to avoid a land invasion. This was my position for most of my life. GEM Anscombe's essay "Mr. Truman's Degree" and her essay "War and Murder" caused me to rethink my perspective on this. You can find the first one online; it's not too long. — BitconnectCarlos
If you want to look at the geostrategic picture in the Middle East with the military balance in mind, you simply cannot forget that Israel has a functioning nuclear deterrent and it's enemies never had it.The world should judge these countries on a case-by-case basis. Nuclear proliferation is a complex issue; I don't pretend to know all the ins and outs. — BitconnectCarlos
To which the MRA would likely say, e.g., "It's not that we ignore the abuse of women, it's that we focus on the abuse of men." — BitconnectCarlos
Israel has said it does not target Iranian civilians, but hundreds have died in the violence, among them a poet and her family, an equestrian and a graphic designer.
Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, said that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to increase “the intensity of the attacks on strategic targets in Iran and governmental targets in Tehran.” Stepping up Israel’s attacks, Katz said, was meant “to remove the threats to the state of Israel and to destabilize the ayatollahs’ regime.” — NY Times
Christians think the whole Bible belongs to them. They're as fascinated by climbing Mt Sinai at dawn as they are hanging around the Jordan River.Christians will always be fascinated with that land where Jesus walked. — BitconnectCarlos
2) In Tel Aviv you have in power some Torah-lunatics who believe that they were destined by Yahweh to conquer whomever they want. These Torah-lunatics it said that possess more than 90 nuclear warheads. Although you might be right in arguing that all this unfolding-catastrophe in the Middle East should not be attributed to Israeli groups only, I do take these Torah-lunatics capable of blackmailing US presidents with their nukes. In others words, I have them capable of threatening to use nuclear weapons, behind the curtains. So, there is some blame in Zionists too (apart from those Jewish-banker theories). — Eros1982
Whoever might be the benefited groups from all these wars, the USA (seen as a whole country) does not seem to benefit. — Eros1982
Outline most probable events in next 10 days and how the Iran attacks will stop. — Me
⚠️ Key Immediate Developments (as of June 19)
Military Dynamics:
Israel has degraded ~45% of Iran's ballistic missile launchers and 35-45% of its missile stockpiles, reducing Iranian barrage sizes from 100+ missiles (Oct 2024) to 2-40 missiles per attack 410.
Critical Iranian nuclear sites (e.g., Natanz) suffered severe damage, with 14,000 centrifuges destroyed due to power disruptions 41013.
Iran's retaliation has been largely ineffective, causing minimal Israeli casualties but escalating rhetoric 78.
Diplomatic Deadlock:
Iran demands to "finish its response" before ceasefire talks, while Israel insists on full nuclear program dismantlement 1011.
U.S.-Iran talks mediated by Oman were canceled post-Israeli strikes 13.
External Pressures:
The U.S. has deployed the USS Nimitz carrier group and air tankers to the region, with Trump demanding Iran's "unconditional surrender" 411.
Russia and China are advocating de-escalation but lack leverage over Israel 1213.
Probable Timeline: Next 10 Days
Days 1-3 (June 20-22): Escalation and Expanded Strikes
Israeli Focus: Deep-penetration strikes on remaining nuclear sites (e.g., Fordow), missile bases, and internal security infrastructure (e.g., Basij paramilitary) to destabilize the regime 410.
Iranian Response: Symbolic missile barrages (5-20 missiles) targeting Israeli military sites, with attempts to mobilize proxies (e.g., Houthi drones, Iraqi militia attacks on U.S. bases) 413.
U.S. Role: Trump may approve limited strikes if Iran refuses nuclear concessions, citing pre-authorized plans 11.
Days 4-6 (June 23-25): Humanitarian and Regime Pressures Peak
Infrastructure Collapse in Iran:
Nationwide blackouts and fuel shortages due to damaged energy facilities (e.g., South Pars gas field) 413.
Protests erupt as Basij repression capabilities weaken 410.
Diplomatic Channels Reopen:
Oman/Egypt brokers secret talks between U.S. and Iran, focusing on nuclear freeze in exchange for Israeli pause 1213.
Russia offers to safeguard Iranian enriched uranium to enable negotiations 12.
Days 7-10 (June 26-29): Ceasefire and Unstable Resolution
Military Exhaustion:
Iran's missile capacity drops below 20% of pre-war levels, forcing reliance on asymmetric proxies 4.
Israel pauses strikes after confirming critical nuclear infrastructure destruction 10.
Ceasefire Agreement:
Iran accepts verified suspension of 60%+ uranium enrichment; Israel halts offensive operations but reserves covert response rights 1011.
U.S. guarantees sanctions relief for compliance, backed by Oman/EU monitoring 13.
Regional Spillover:
Houthis launch sporadic drones toward Israel, but Saudi/Egyptian containment prevents escalation 413.
How Attacks Will Stop: Key Catalysts
Iranian Nuclear Degradation: With Natanz disabled and Fordow vulnerable, Iran loses leverage to prolong war 410.
Regime Survival Fears: Internal unrest and leadership decimation force Tehran to prioritize stability over retaliation 412.
U.S.-Israeli Ultimatum: Trump's threat of direct intervention compels Iranian concessions 1113.
Diplomatic Face-Saving: Oman/Russia mediate a "nuclear freeze" allowing both sides to claim tactical wins 1213.
Risks of Failure: If Iran rejects terms, U.S. strikes could trigger a regional war involving Hezbollah (60,000+ rockets) and Iraqi militias 713. However, current trajectories favor a negotiated pause by June 26-28, with low-intensity shadow conflict persisting long-term. — Deepseek
I don't know if we'll see a regime change, but I would love to see Iran liberated. — BitconnectCarlos
It's nice to have other people who value the history of ancient Israel. — BitconnectCarlos
I'm pretty sure the people of Iran hate Khameini and would celebrate if he died. — BitconnectCarlos
It is the history of their own religion. — BitconnectCarlos
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