Only Trump? I can point out truths and lies that all Presidents have told. If you can't tell the truth from the lies it is a problem, Trumps or Obama's lies are their problem not for people who can tell the difference or will not. — FreeEmotion

What's an example of an Obama lie? I really wasn't paying attention at the time.

No one knows where he picked up this nonsense — SophistiCat

Does he know it's nonsense? I would think the average educated Russian knows it's retarded. Right?

Will Putin escalate to de-escalate? — ssu

I think he's in it for several reasons: one of the main ones being his standing within Russia. If Russia is threatened, that cements his hold on the presidency. So he can accept a slow simmer of insurgence.

On the way to that state, he'll want to take out Zelensky and he'll escalate if required to accomplish that.

Im afraid I have no idea what any of that was supposed to mean but... — Isaac

That's it! I'm laying seige!

Does anyone here trust the US Governments official pronouncements or are these to be met with skepticism? — FreeEmotion

Depends. If it's Trump, it's probably a lie.

I put my nukes on high alert so I can bomb you a little faster than I ordinarily would.

Just so you know. You're on notice. I might also take your weapons grade anthrax and blow it on you.

This shows the utter lack of understanding how a country governed by laws operates and that it is usually the dictatorships that are the most corrupt. — ssu

Doesn't it depend on the dictator? Putin was chosen because he was corrupt and so would protect Yeltsin. If he dies in office, couldn't there be a reset where Russia becomes less corrupt?

There are no unbiased news sources, as a general rule. So, be aware of the bias and then calculate how much to discount. — Bitter Crank

I'm going to take that as a biased statement, and add a grain of salt to it.

I wish I could access different channels, my country offers CNN, FOX and BBC. — Manuel

All three of those are known for bias (Fox is worthless).

Maybe Putin wants to use this war to cement his dictatorship, so it doesn't necessarily need to be a quick war.

As the Frontline documentary said, Putin has the same succession problem Yeltsin had. He can't step down without fear of prosecution. So he'll just stay there for life?

The average Russian is poorer than the average Indian. Wow.

America claims they are bio-defence labs. — NOS4A2

That’s not how Americans spell defense.

This is not a combat effective unit. — Count Timothy von Icarus

But they're still able to bomb a children's hospital. I don't think Ukrainians want to hold out for a better deal. There just isn't any deal on the table now because they're locked in. A cease fire would give Ukraine time to get civilians out and regroup. Putin doesn't want that. He's just lying about the deal. He wants the Ukrainians to stop fighting so he can get his shit together and crush Kiev.

There isn't enough trust to do a cease fire, much less a deal about Ukraine's future.

Who said anything about truth? It's just a shit argument — Isaac

Huh?

Has the quote function broken? There seems to have been a flurry recently of posts referring to what I'm apparently saying without making use of it. — Isaac

You straight admitted that you don't care about the truth. Do you need that quoted back to you?

We should probably ban oil and gas from everyone. Go green.

his double-double-secret operative could secretly supply al-Qaeda suicide-bombers with a tactical nuke and have it detonate strategically, with plausible deniability of course — jorndoe

Exactly what location for this detonation did you have in mind, jorndoe?

Well, it's a moot point anyway. After failing to hold Ukraine, he probably won't try to take anything else.

I don't think the NATO response to a second invasion would be because of some treaty. It would be because Putin would start to look like Hitler, not that he's in that category at all at the moment.

Looks like a balanced and lucid analysis to me, coached in careful language. — Olivier5

I think that for all practical purposes, Finland is in NATO because the US and the EU will engage militarily with another invasion. That would be my guess, anyway.

The USSR got out of Afghanistan humbled and crippled, and the same will most probably happen here. — Olivier5

In both cases their defeat will be because of American support.

Hmm.

The other trucks got shelled right after this. — Count Timothy von Icarus

Are you there?

All the combat experience gained by his military dies inside of the body, so it seems a little short sighted, no? — ArguingWAristotleTiff

True

How will such a situation harm his grip on power, rather than simply cement the 'bulwark against the west' narrative which keeps him there? — Isaac

That's not the basis of his power. Russians aren't afraid of NATO.

They have mobile cremations. Scary shit that we may never know the extent of. — ArguingWAristotleTiff

Maybe it's too expensive to send the bodies back? One thing Putin said that I sort of believe is that this was an exercise to give his military some real combat experience. Or at least that's what he seemed to be suggesting.

Icarus
365
Russia moderating it's demands and looking for a way out more explicitly: — Count Timothy von Icarus

That's the way out. Did Russian forces really lose 5-10 thousand troops or was that bullshit?

Should he have just focused on Kiev instead of surrounding the whole country?

But how can Putin get out of this? — Count Timothy von Icarus

Depends on what happens when he takes out Zelensky. A resistance will need a leader.

Maybe Putin thought Zelensky would flee the country and Ukraine would surrender sooner than this.

Maybe so. I'm clueless right now as to what will happen next.

Could Ukraine be his Afghanistan? :grimace:
— frank

No, those are orthodox and blonde! :eyes: — javi2541997

I don't think that is relevant, is it?

I'm sure Putin's got to be thinking about how the USSR's demise was related to its protracted war in Afghanistan.

Could Ukraine be his Afghanistan? :grimace:

Bombs thrown in Russia and the US will spill to China. It will likely set off a chain reaction, in either case, the radiation and change in temperature would kill off almost everyone. — Manuel

I disagree. China could sit it out. I guess if Russia and the US totally unloaded on one another, a nuclear winter might happen.

I don't think it would kill everybody, though.

Being passive is one thing, racing towards WWIII is beyond words. — Manuel

Who's siding with Russia in this scenario? China? China has nothing to gain from bombing its investment and prime market. On the other hand, it doesn't really need Russia for much. Should nuclear conflict transpire, I don't think it will be a world war exactly. It will mainly be the US and Russia being bombed.

We are lacking in leaders worldwide. These folks are insane. — Manuel

We're just not used to it. Our ancestors had to deal with this shit all the time.

If the Pax Americana goes down (which it appears to be doing) this will be happening more often. So being passive isn't the way to peace that you think it is.

The problem that I see, is that these sanctions are going to fuck up MANY countries that have nothing to do with the war and are leaving less room for Russia to negotiate without them having to rely on nukes. That’s my worry. — Manuel

Or cyber attacks. That would be a little less final, but still very destructive.

One way things could escalate is cyber attacks on infrastructure.

I think that actually would tilt the world into a depression. Plus we'd get to see whose country deals best with a shortage of basic needs.

Me? What does that mean? — Xtrix

:grin:

the main thesis in this thread is about obstacles to joining together with others. Do you have experiences relevant to this? — Xtrix

Yea. You.

We know there were no WMD in Iraq because the US government told us. They could easily have lied if they felt like it.

So to apply Walzer's concept of "dirty hands" we would need Putin to recognize the immorality of invading, but say that he had to do it for the well-being of his society.

I think that is the official Russian narrative, right?


The idea is that he was faced with a real ethical dilemma where there's no way to avoid doing something immoral.