Interesting intervention from David Gauke this morning a well respected Tory moderate. Saying that a Johnson majority would be bad for the country. It would likely drive the country of a cliff at the end of 2020, and the uncertainty wouldn't stop in the meantime, but intensify.

Well, one really can't tell who it was yet. And if it would be Russia, remember that their goal is just to make Britain more weak, more hateful against each other and more distrustful of your own government, so that they are a bigger player in Europe. :wink:

Of interest to me is that it will contribute to a political row over the government refusing to publish the select committee report on possible Russian interference. A big headache for Johnson, it has already been leaked that Kremlin sponsored oligarchs had been smoozing with Tory politicians, including Johnson himself and making large contributions to Tory coffers. There are also rumours going round that Dominic Cummings was complicit, as he had spent a year working in Moscow a few years back.

Thatcherism still wasn't really populism and surely John Major wasn't a populist just as Tony Blair wasn't either. But of course political discourse has always been quite rude in the UK.

The cabal I was referring to was in the shadows, they were always confined to an enclave by the moderate, "one nation" Tory's who ran the governments. In order to win the centre ground the party had to show moderation and a nod to the ordinary folk, hence the slogan "one nation". It was never much more than a nod though. Now the cabal is front and centre for the first time, naked, who knows what will transpire.

It has been reported that the Labour Party campaign team has suffered a cyber attack. Just as Hillary Clinton has criticised the government for sitting on the Russia report. This story is growing fast.

It has emerged that Farage had been starting to examine what was wrong with Johnson's deal last week. As soon as the tabloids realised what he was up to, they turned on him and pressured him to get into bed with Johnson, at which point he rolled over. Because as they know, as soon as anyone starts to describe Brexit, it falls apart. The government will do anything, pull any stunt, to prevent scrutiny of his deal, because as soon as that happens it falls apart.

But unfortunately now that they are in bed, the Tory party has lost its soul and any moderate Tory's left will be leaving now.

We are bowing to the need for compromise and a resolution to the problem, hence the remain vote is fraying

I would have accepted leave the day following the referendum up until Theresa May's first meaningful vote. Although I was critical of her failure to work across the house and was becoming reluctant by that point. From that point on, I have been vehemently remain due to the wrecking of our country by the Tory's. As we have descended into chaos and lashed out at the EU, there is no way I would support it now. You say you know someone who would vote leave know. Are they happy with this mess and to leave in this position of weakness and contempt for the EU?

Farage has just said he will not stand candidates in the seats that the Conservatives won in the last election. About 317 seats I think. He says it's because Johnson made a speech yesterday in which he leaned in the direction of a Canada free trade relationship with the EU. Apparently the Mail on Sunday turned the screws on Farage yesterday.

As an outside observer, I think populism played a key part to this whole debacle.
You see, populism is about making a divide, dividing people to be either part of the "common ordinary people" or then "the elites". The 'elites' were in favour of globalization, EU integration and "giving up independence". The 'elites' have totally forgotten the 'common people'. The 'elite' is evil. That is populism.

Yes, I hear you, if that is the definition then you are right. The cabal at the centre of the hard right faction of the Conservative party during the 1970's and 80's were developing into populists. But I don't think they were employing the populist strategies we are discussing here, of appealing to large numbers of people. Their strategy was one on one, although they were employing xenophobia memes. I saw it first hand at the time. It was traditionalist Tory politicians, who had grown up during the Second World War. They were simply spreading paranoia about what the goals or ambitions of the Germans are in their involvement in the EU, i.e. they would become the leaders of a European Empire. Also criticism of the French as being corrupt. This spread slowly for decades, before anti EU sentiment became mainstream, fuelled by worries about the growing numbers of EU migrants roughly between 2004-10. This last development is when Farage came onto the scene and adopted megaphone populism.

This includes BBC polling (albeit from mid-October) on whether leavers/remainers have changed thieir minds since the referendum (3rd graph down): Of those who voted leave, 6% are now remain. Of those who voted remain, 27% are now leave (mostly, assuming a deal is agreed)...

I did see that article, I left not sure what to think, other than the electorate had not moved significantly from what it was thinking in 2016. Also the graph you refer to was taken between 4-7th of September which was before the illegal prorogation of parliament. Before Johnson's disgraceful behaviour. I have heard of some people saying they won't support him after that. The other thing I noticed is that there were 5 options in the Pole, 4 were versions of leave and only one was a version of remain, I don't know if that might have skewed the result.

As I am embedded in the remain camp, it is difficult to judge what is happening in the opposing camp. I can speak for myself though. I voted remain, but would have been happy with a sensible deal and respectful alignment with the EU, while maintaining our international reputation and integrity. But for over a year now I have not been happy with the way the government has taken a wrecking ball to our institutions and reputation. So now I am vehemently remain.

Surely Labour's 2010 defeat was down to the crash and their spending almost bankrupting the country - also to the fact that no-one thought Brown was any good. The UKIP poll vote did not exceed 8% til 2013, when it went well into double figures.

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Yes, in hindsight I think you were right to pick me up on that one. It was the article I was reading which made me over egg the influence of Tony Blairs policy on EU migrants. Although I do think it played a part. Gordon Brown was atrocious.

This is the article, https://theconversation.com/the-huge-political-cost-of-blairs-decision-to-allow-eastern-european-migrants-unfettered-access-to-britain-66077

If MPs did echo the public views on every issue there'd be no point in having them! I've never believed that they should just parrot the views of their constituents. We elect them to use their experience and knowledge to govern on our behalf. If we're never going to accept their views can differ from the majority then we end up with government by referendum, which anyone can see would be absurd. The conclusion therefore is that referendums are a bad idea.

I agree, the decision to call the referendum was a tragic mistake, Cameron should have denied the Eurosceptics in his own party the opportunity. I think the problem was that for electoral reasons Cameron along with Blair before him had waived the idea of a referendum actually happening to bring Eurosceptics in line. This had the unfortunate effect of giving people the idea that it was going to happen and by the time of the 2015 election it became evident to Cameron that the momentum for a referendum had become irresistible. Perhaps he could have stopped it in the run up to the election, but he was complacent in the thought that he would be returned in coalition with the Lib Dems and they would block it, or he could hide behind them in denying it.

From the other side of the divide, UKIP had been thriving for a number of years on fears of immigration,due to the large numbers that entered following the accession of the A8 countries in Eastern Europe. The UK alone allowed unfettered access, expecting the other members to follow suit, but they didn't, they all imposed restrictions at the last minute. Thus the seeds were sown for the referendum in the mid naughties, which led to the defeat of Labour in 2010. By this time the strength of UKIP was threatening the Tory's and with the pressure from the hard right within the party, the cracks were beginning to show and the struggle to save the party began.

Ultimately they put party before country, which laid the blame for the Tory Brexit firmly at their door.

I think you misunderstand what leavers are all about. The idea that now they're better informed they'd vote to remain is flawed, as the unchanging Brexit opinion polls prove.

I don't think you can presume that all leavers are this hardline. A significant proportion are likely to be less decided and are either concerned about the behaviour of the government, or are waiting to see how the campaign goes before deciding. There is plenty of evidence for this in interviews with the public on the media.

exploiting the public fear of immigration and justiying the necessary counter-measures in the name of national identity. Populists don't care a fig for tradition or convention - which makes BJ one - the end justifies any means. Because their targeted voters are basically uneducated, populists can u-turn, contradict their previous policies and just smile whilst doing so; secure that their followers still trust them

I think this sums it up quite well, but what I have been trying to say is that this course has only been adopted by the Conservatives as a last resort. Putting Johnson into No10 was their last throw of the dice, their last ace card(or so they thought), after the failure of their "strong and stable" Theresa May. Also I think we only got to this point due to the clash of two democratic outcomes, the referendum result saying one thing and the elected MPs saying something else. Resulting in deadlock. Johnson is supposed to break the deadlock by adopting populism and somehow trying to bypass or hoodwink parliament, so as to implement the result of the referendum. So if the referendum had not been called British politics would have carried on as normal with no populism.

Unfortunately while being their greatest asset, Johnson is turning out to be their greatest liability. Today he was found to be burbling during a speech and swearing blind that there will be no checks of goods crossing the Irish Sea. This is clearly irrational and incoherent, as was pointed out by Chris Morris the BBC fact checker, today. Who pointed out that if there is going to be regulatory divergence, then the single market rules will require checks to establish compliance. Now Johnson said we won't carry out these checks, if the EU require it, they can do it. But the problem with this approach is that the border where the checks will be required is within the UK, i.e. The Irish Sea and this is not to mention tariffs either, which will require checks, in the UK.

The flaws in his deal are beginning to show.

Just a thought about Le Pen, I put it down to the rapid communication amongst the intelligentsia in France via "La Grande Conversation", who then adopted Macron as their representative in a remarkably short space of time. If only we had a grand conversation in this country, we wouldn't have got into such a pickle.

Nice article, chuckle.

Yes, the article does lean slightly in Favour of Labour, but I recognise that reality. It is one of the numerous means used by the right wing elite and media to discredit Corbyn. The privelidged elites really do seem to be scarred of something, their tried and tested ways of slamming Labour and keeping them out of power while they practice their wealth creation, only for people who are in the know, are failing, there is a younger generation coming through who aren't aware of the slamming and discrediting of the Labour Party on their performance in the 1970's. Ever since the Credit Crunch in 2008, it has been going wrong for the Tory's. The death nail being when they had a group lobotomy around 2014/15.

Interesting that Stormzy tweeted about Rees Mogg's comments about Grenfel, which went viral.

Its not populism, although populism played a part. If it were that simple Le Pen and others like her would be in office now. Trump got into power because when the populism struck the US population was already hopelessly divided and he was a brilliant exploiter of the media. Which he used to divide and rule.

In our country the seed of the Brexit phenomena was sown when we joined the common market in 1973 and had grown steadily among the Tory twits over the next couple of decades I know this because I was there as it was happening. The populism was exploited by Farage in a relatively small demographic. It's true that the Tory twits began defecting to UKIP, but it was not populism which infected them. They were already converted by the drip feed of the Tory poison administered by a group of hard right right wing Tory's. This gets quite murky when one starts looking at the power and wealth brokers behind the Tory's.

Johnson is an opportunist who found himself in the right place at the right time. I suppose one could call him a populist, but Cummings is working through social media primarily and any populism is consequential. Now like Trump, it is divide and rule. People against Parliament is Johnson's catch phrase, but I don't see it having all that much effect, because the decision to leave was taken at the beginning of the process in the referendum. He is having to use such tactics now due to the laughable incompetence of the government in leaving the EU in a sensible way. The man can't even lie straight in bed let alone lead a populist revolution.

I agree that populism as used by Farage capitalised on the fears of immigration and racism. I expect that he saw what the Tory twits were up to and thought that there was an opportunity for a snake oil salesman like him. To team up with them at some point, they don't seem to like him for some reason. I wonder why.

An interesting interview on Politics live today(BBC) with Anthony Seldon, who has written an in depth analysis of Theresa May's term in office. He describes her performance on Brexit as a failure because she not only made it into a party issue, rather than cross party, which was required. But a narrow sectional internal party issue. Resulting in the biggest self inflicted own goal in the history of British politics.

Quite, and compounded by the finality of the cut off date of the article 50 process. Our political process is not designed for such deadlines on profound constitutional issues. It's like trying to fit a square peg into a round hole, whereby if you don't fit it into the hole, by a point in time, you loose. Cummings knows that all he needs to do is distract you with jiggery pokery, including trashing the constitution and the economy if required, until the deadline is passed. It is despicable.

I think this discussion should be widened out to consider what is going on here, alongside the commentary and discussion of day to day events.

The reason I say this is because I am aware of a phenomena which is not being discussed in the media and by commentators. A denial amongst the chattering classes of the crisis. Also a consideration of the Tory project of the last 40 years and what it has done to our country.

I have noticed a denial of and failure to comprehend the depth of the crisis we have been plunged into. This became particularly acute during the row in the House of Commons the day the commons opened again after the illegal prorogation of parliament. Let me illustrate, Geoffrey Cox and Boris Johnson, both people with great booming voices of a privelidged tone. Stormed the chamber (metaphorically) in a contemptuous aggressive tone, accusing the members of trying anything to prevent the government in its efforts to respect the referendum (an untruth). Then proceeding to say that parliament was broken and could perform its purpose( an untruth). Followed by an attack on a group of parliamentarians who took the action to nullify the prorogation of 5 weeks (contemptuous of the Supreme Court and the constitution). When a few opposition members called them out for disrespectful insightful language and breaking the good chap philosophy of politics established in this country. They were shouted down in the most callous way as humbug and having contempt for parliament and the government(accusing the victims of their attacks as attacking them( the psychology of transference)).

In the media commentary afterwards journalists and MPs followed a line that the tempers and bad language were from all sides, the whole house needed to calm down etc, in reality they were in shock and denial of the abuse of the house that had just taken place by the government. This is when Ian Duncan Smith on behalf of the government, cursed and was spitting out expletives at the contempt of parliament for the government just trying to do its job(showing utter contempt for our politics and constitution).

People involved in this episode (who were not members of this gang of people who had lost touch with reality) were in shock and trying to calm things down and resume normality. This included doing what people do to deflate a bully in our society which is by saying there is heated language on all sides, if we all calm down this would include the bully calming down without lashing out any more.

This is the approach adopted by the people observing the outrage, as is human nature. But it fails to make the bully accountable for the damage they have done, or for them to stop bullying abruptly and behave correctly like everyone else.

Even now people are saying that the dishonest behaviour is from all sides and are failing to hold the bullies to account. While in the meantime the bullies carry on damaging our constitution, our country, our and their integrity and creating more crisis.

It is time for people of integrity to embrace the truth of what is happening here. The Conservative party is not anymore one of our 4 or 5 political party's vying for power in a descent and respectful( for our constitution) way. They have become this bully, they have no respect for, or integrity in, the institutions, the ways of doing things in our political system. The only reason that they are obeying the rules at the moment as we go into this election, is because it serves their purposes and is inline with their plan to hoodwink the population into doing what they want.

This is an abuse and attack on our country by a political party which has lost its way, lost all touch with reason and integrity. Which has been beset with infighting in which the dominant bully has risen to the surface and inflicted this erotic spasm on the country. It is time people call it out for what it is, rather than just thinking its business as usual.

the consensus that we'll all be better off, economically.

Yes, leavers have accepted now that we will take an economic hit, accept a Trump deal and cock a snook at the Europeans. So if Brexit is cancelled we can all feel the glow of economic prosperity friendship with the Europeans and cock a snook at Trump.

The principle of democracy is too important for us of the 'intelligentsia' to overrule the 'ignorant' masses

Don't forget the ignorant Toffs and middle class Tory's, they out numbered those masses and they brought about the flawed referendum to begin with. They should have known better.

So your reservations are with whether the Labour Party will be able to deliver their policies. Perhaps they will have problems here and there, government can be unpredictable and Brexit is a Gordian knot. I can't see much of a problem in their carrying out most of their policies and the reason why their critics can't see how they are going to pay for it is because they are wedded to the ideology of continuous reduction of taxes. It's simple, they will pay for a lot of it by raising taxes. As for Brexit, there is really only one way to resolve it with any kind of valid mandate and that is to have it decided with a referendum on precise choices.

What I am critical of the Tory's for is their contempt for democracy, constitution, parliament, the people, Europe. The fact that they are dishonest, deceptive, divisive. Their claims are nonsense and hollow, for example in Johnson's speech today he said once Brexit is done there will be hundreds of billions of pounds of investment in the country. I could quite easily continue for another page, but I will leave it at that. None of the opposition party's have sold their souls in this way.

Yes I do expect it from Johnson, I do get a bit angry with him though. It is interesting that you suggest Corbyn can't be trusted. Can you suggest what things he can't be trusted on? Also, you imply that he will talk nonsense, or ingage in Tory like tactics. Any example of that?

I agree with what you say about the Greens, but I don't think I can vote for them this time as I will vote tactically.

Johnson's opening campaigning speech today. His privelidged voice sounds irresistible, he has nailed that tone of benevolent optimism, that you hear from the most skilled salesmen. But what he is saying is a word salad of hollow sound bites floundering accusations and slurs about his opponents. Naive inaccuracies about the economic realities of a hard Brexit and the vast investments he is promising for public services. " come with me", as we bring the country back together in a wave of optimism and investment. Or "go with him" (Corbyn) into division, delay, chaos and incompetence.

Interestingly he accused Corbyn of collusion with Putin, while he is refusing to publish the extensive report into Russian collusion in the 2016 referendum and democracy through social media etc.

Its delinquency, this is what the Tory party has become. The decent Tory's have jumped ship and ERG stooges have filled the gap drunk on raw power.

The Tory gaffs are coming thick and fast today.

Works for me!

And for me. Mogg has gone viral now. Stormsy has said politicians actually are aliens. I agree that Mogg, Johnson and Co live on another planet.

Apparently, it's acceptable to call for people like that to be put down. You might imagine death threats are unacceptable, but it seems not.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/04/tories-back-candidate-francesca-o-brien-benefits-street-remarks-gower

Yes precisely, although when I read your post my first thought was that Mogg was eligible to be put down.

Sorry I must have rushed that post. I meant a meaningful vote on the new deal negotiated by Corbyn and his second referendum.

What I am referring to is that May's deal only required a meaningful vote because Keir Starmer had to demand a vote to secure it. It might not be required for Corbyn's deal, although the legislation will have to pass in the Commons.

Also Corbyn might be able to engineer a second referendum not requiring such parliamentary consent by having binding options on the ballot paper. Which the government would be legally required to implement. I'm no constitutional expert, so this might not be right.

An interesting side issue, which illustrates how out of touch members of the government are. Rees Mogg (mewling pencil), said on LBC yesterday that it was common sense that the people trapped in Grenfell Tower should have ignored the fire brigade and left the building. So in essence blaming the victims and undermining the integrity of the fire service.

But of course a person of such privelidge and high demeanour with a posh voice must be right.

Yes, an important story. The government will have read it and for some reason decided to sit on it. Typical of the ram it through policies of Cummings. The BBC will probably ignore it as it could bring the referendum result into doubt. Let's see if Channel 4, or Sky News pick it up.

As I said in an earlier post. No. Corbyn's renogiated withdrawal deal will include the customs union, single market etc, and for leavers be akin to no Brexit at all, so ref2 will not be viable..

It depends if there is a meaningful vote or what the balance of MPs in the house is after the election. Perhaps the referendum result will be binding. If Corbyn can get it through these hurdles there is no reason to presume that the electorate will choose the leave option. The mood and demographic has changed a lot since 2016.

In respect of Farage, there is a hard core of support who will not vote Tory, because it is not a true Brexit. I can't predict the numbers though. It's going to be unpredictable.

I hear Sinn Fein is doing a pro-remain pact now.

He's miffed, well I can understand that. I was expecting some sort of strategy from him. Even if he gets a pact,the Tory's won't grant him any seats, they'll ask him to stand down his candidates. At the moment he's set to split the vote and let Corbyn in. Perhaps that is a better outcome than having to gift Brexit to Johnson and eat humble pie.

Or is it world domination?

Yes and yes, I think unity and the social crisis is more important for Corbyn than how Brexit is resolved. Which Is evident in his speeches in the house over recent months. He refused to be drawn into the Tory Brexit psycho drama, not because he wasn't tempted, I expect, but because these issues are more important and pressing.

I agree about the super rich seeking to ride out the climate crisis, this may be contributing to the acuteness of neo-Liberalism.

Yes I can see how the cracks might be just on the surface, but as I see it there is an existential crisis in the Conservative party due to two factors. The demographic, they have very little support amongst the young, which runs into the consequences and concerns of a more bleak economic future over the next generation. The turning point as I see it was the financial crisis of 2008, they have been reeling from the fallout since then and the younger generation among their base has financial and social concerns which are outside the traditional remit of the party.

I can see them coalescing around the privelidged classes again once the dust settles, but probably smaller and struggling to get into office, as their base will have shrunk. Also if they have alienated some of their moderate base due to this sojourn to the right, their numbers will shrink more. I think a lot will depend on whether Corbyn gets into office, but I do see a swing to the left due to the state of the country.

Likewise I'm not that bothered about the populist right. I'm more concerned about the Conservative party turning in on itself and defacating on the rest of us. Why don't they go off into a corner and do it there, rather than taking a wrecking ball to our country. It's interesting when I look back to my political development. I started out a Tory, as a teenager, ushering Thatcher in to office, my house was the local conservative Election Day headquarters. I was a Thatcherite through and through, I only saw positive developments. Then from that day forward, we have inexorably drifted apart, until now they are reviled in my eyes. It's a two pronged attack, climate change, I went Green in the 1980's, and the social contract. Two things which don't seem to concern the Tory's, it just gets lip service.

This is not a climate change thread, but I am equally alarmed and feel powerless on this. There is a good Attenborough documentary at the moment, I think he spells it out very well.

I agree, it looks like divide and rule. The degree to which logical argument is meaningless can be evidenced by the outrageous behaviour of Johnson and the group around him and how the supporters jump to justify every action.

I can't work Farage out, he is the Tory's Achilles heal, but why is he gunning so hard? I can only come up with two alternative goals, one he is bluffing while holding a secret pact with the Tory's. Two he would rather be in the EU with Corbyn in power and retain his mantle as Mr Brexit. Rather than help deliver The prize while Johnson takes all the glory.

I can't see either of these as very plausible, so what is he up to?

I'd suggest that the best (and least gratuitousy confrontational) argument for Remain is that it's worth surrendering some sovereignty for frictionless trade with our near neighbours

Yes I agree with this, however I don't find the opportunity arises. The few people I know who voted leave don't discuss it with me and I avoid discussing it with them. We just pretend it's not happening. I suspect this approach is common place, a sign of the division. I find myself discussing it a lot with people I know who voted remain, I suppose we are simply reinforcing memes etc. We are all stuck in these positions relying on the media to mediate. Fortunately the TV media that we all watch is reasonably objective and impartial, with the biased media restricted to print media. I don't know what effect it is having on the constituency which will due to their particular demographic be important in determining the course we take, the swing voters in marginal seats "Workington man". They seem remote to most of us, on both sides, it feels as though we are in a boat without a paddle drifting towards a waterfall. We (99% of us) are powerless to prevent it happening and then we see on the TV Trump talking to Farage over the phone about how great Johnson is. The three stooges, Johnson, Farage and Trump, all duplicitous playing with media, populism and powerful divisive memes. Corbyn the only leader, potential leader who is trying to compromise and bring the country back together being smeared and discounted out of hand by both sides based on outdated prejudice about his policies and what he represents.

Someone in my position is well aware of what these three stooges are doing, what they represent and what motivates them. I don't see much concern for the country there.

Its easier, perhaps I could say the Flying Spaghetti Monster, an old friend of mine. One I have encountered after half a bottle of proseco.

Unicorn is appropriate to illustrate the point. What does the independent UK look like? Perhaps there are many images, some with one horn, some where the grass is greener. I remember Johnson saying something about " the sunlit uplands", " we can have our cake and eat it", I can't remember who said "the exact same benefits".