I’ll remember that if I present their evidence against Russia.

You know the problem with evidence, like proof, is how do you prove it.

No, just the media reports and the Azov video.

There are reports of Sarin gas being dropped from drones over Mariapol last night(11/04/22).
I agree, NATO won’t act on this if it’s proven.

Yet now we do have that bloody civil war of the former Soviet Union.

This is what I’ve been thinking.
This war along with all the others involving previous members of the USSR are fallout from the collapse of the USSR.

I see EU, or NATO expansion as a side show to this. Although it might act as a catalyst. Also I expect the US is aware of this.

Asking price - Half a milion

Yes, one is less likely to indiscriminately bomb the second house.

I'd consider that a lack of imagination. Medieval peasants worked less than the average American and we're inexorably moving in that direction in Europe as well. By some measures feudalism would be preferable depending on what stage of capitalism you're living in.

This is a big subject.
Peasants in your part of the world may have had a nice life. They didn’t here, we lived under the brutality of our robber baron Norman overlords. We still haven’t shaken them off, they are still playing their robber Baron games.

Capitalism, or more pertinently, consumerism and technological advancement has had a calming effect on human society. It may have some unfortunate consequences, but we shouldn’t take the relative peace we have known for granted. Human history was more unstable before this development and with a larger global population could have become far more unstable.

It is quite remarkable that such a large population on the planet hasn’t descended into chaos and destruction before now.

It’s better than the alternative, as far as global peace and peace in Europe is concerned.
Remember the U.K. is a poodle in this, as always and with a clown in office.

That's because you're fucking crazy.

Just looked at your avatar, now that is crazy.

(One of my favourite films)

Oh, I missed out EU hegemony, I must have been distracted by something. Yes I’d opt for that all day long, of course.

I’m not sure the alternative to capitalism would have been any better.

Chomsky

Yes the the geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia continue to play out. Following the fall of the USSR this point was always going to be reached, the difference being just where the dividing lines will be on the map. It’s looking like a new iron curtain will divide east Ukraine. If NATO hadn’t expanded, a newly moneyed Russia would have.

What brought this to a head was the vast oil and gas revenues given to Russia. Have you noticed hundreds of super yachts turning up in exotic hideaways over recent weeks. Putin has a trillion $ war chest just sitting there in front of him. He has spent two years in covid isolation. This is not a surprise.

This could be the beginning of a new stable Cold War period. Although there is a much bigger demon looming over the horizon. Climate change.

I can already see the rich and powerful scurrying around before they get ready to abandon ship. In the U.K. we look on as our country is asset stripped by unsavoury characters. A smash and grab raid before the sh*t really hits the fan.

Going forward, which hegemony would you prefer, US, Russia, or China?

I know which one I will chose. I have a friend who was on the Greenpeace ship that was captured by Russia a few years back. Three months in a concrete cell in Murmansk in winter woke him up. He would probably still be there if it wasn’t the run up to the Russian Winter Olympics, when Putin pardoned them as a goodwill gesture.

There are a lot of analysts and commentators who conclude that Putin is a dictator. Certainly the failings of the military is not evidence to the contrary.

I’m equally outraged about the war crimes and starvation in Yemen. The horrors in Somalia, Sudan and now in Ethiopia. I was up in arms about the invasion of Iraq and the subsequent destruction of Syria. The fate of the Kurds is shocking. The list goes on.

I’m well aware of the problems caused by US foreign policy over the last 70yrs. Also how shamelessly the U.K. jumps when the US says jump.

The big story for me about the Ukraine invasion is how it is galvanising the EU and the awakening of Germany to the need to secure its own security. And that we might now have a new iron curtain constructed on the perimeter of Europe.

Because this is the rational and intelligent thing to do? I don't think these fears are founded. Putin threatening using nukes is to clarify NATO shouldn't get involved. What else would there be to it? What exactly did he say making you think he meant more?

I agree with you here but for different reasons. That Russia’s army is incompetent with poor equipment. They can’t even occupy Ukraine, so are not going to continue west.
I can’t point out where he said he would go further than Ukraine. But he has given long speeches in which he comes across as wanting to re establish the USSR.

But his proving himself to be a bare faced liar (100,000 troops just happen to be on military exercises on the Ukraine border, we have no intention to invade). His apparent irrational behaviour, the fact that many of his subordinates had no idea he was going to invade. The press conference where he humiliated his chief of staff. The long tables. This was interpreted in the West as someone unhinged with his hand on the nuclear button, who has just invaded a large country with a large army, which he can’t possibly hold, while insisting he wasn’t planning anything of the sort. This has crossed a line in Europe and we will now see a European army built and the awakening of Germany after 70yrs of passivism.

Regarding the mafia point. I refer to Frank’s answer. The mafia are business men, they strike deals and alliances. They had a common enemy with US after 9/11. They sell people services until they become dependent, while they grow rich and powerful and then come for their pound of flesh.

I don’t think the negotiations are likely to go anywhere as the two sides are worlds apart. The US getting involved would not help and could just cause a stand off.

I hear you about European countries not calling it out. The problem is they have been dependent on the US for security and now Russia for gas and oil. They are stuck in the middle and compromised from both sides. Ideally they would have provided their own security over the last generation and avoided becoming dependent on Russia gas and oil. In hindsight we were all asleep at the wheel while Putin was friendly, business like. We even thought he would form some sort of alliance with Europe. But quietly he amassed his forces, his wealth. He was going in the other direction. He fostered that dependency on gas and oil and now he is coming for his pound of flesh.

We know see that nato and EU expansion was becoming an existential threat to Putin. We were blind to it, under the guise of free choice, democracy, prosperity. All good things, but Putin saw it spreading his way. And if the Russian people wanted a piece of it, his grip on power might be threatened.

Hopefully you’re right, perhaps any scary variant which does emerge will not be all that bad as we become immune. I notice China is having a bit of a mare at the moment.

Prior to the invasion I was closer to your position. This changed in 25th Feb and especially when Putin threatened nuclear Armageddon with menaces. A line was crossed at that point, not just for me, but the leaders of all NATO leaders(Orban excepted). I don’t disagree that Putin and his gang are intelligent and rational. You only have to listen to Lavrov’s rhetoric, or the speech given by the representative of the Russian Federation at the UN today to understand that there is a sophisticated intelligent narrative on the Russian side. A narrative of victimhood(re NATO, or the West) and blaming Ukrainian failures (with US and Nato meddling) for everything happening in Ukraine including the war crimes. A narrative which is also drip fed to the Russian population.

The problem is what is going on behind this facade. Putin has absolute control and runs his country like a Mafia boss. He views and deals with his enemies with contempt and like the mafia, he pushes and threatens at every opportunity and takes full advantage of any weakness, or concessions. This situation has been developing for over 20yrs until now he has invaded a large sovereign country(an act of aggression) and threatened NATO countries with nuclear annihilation. Now we are waking up to the reality that he has a massive war chest, has built up a large army and is rampaging around ex USSR territories.

Now if we don’t stop showing weakness, or making concessions will this escalation just continue? If we do get involved, no fly zone for example, does the war just escalate. Either way it doesn’t solve the problem we are faced with. A tyrant.

He may become even more menacing and then at any time. just retreat to the Donbas, claim the special operation is complete and he will finish liberating the Russian speakers in that region from persecution. Or he might become more menacing and march across Macedonia, link up with Orban, just keep heading west. We just don’t know, all we see is a poker face. A Godfather, playing poker with us. Do we call his bluff, or show weakness and he wins another hand and more and more of the pot.

Yes like passing through the eye of a needle. I find it difficult to image such an outcome.

I can find you someone who has met Putin, but I don’t think it would help. Putin has a poker face, is an ace poker player. Those Kremlinologists who have met him have come to similar views. He must be judged by his actions. I’m not here to talk about Andrew Levi though, I’m here to discuss what Putin is up to and the tweet I quoted lays out the argument that he is the equivalent of a Mafia boss.

Forgive me, I wasn’t aware of discussion you were involved in with regarding the track record of the US.
I have no argument with you there. We do need to focus on the actor who has committed an act of aggression though.

It's also neither here nor there. If we want peace, if we want to stop the killing now, we need to go through the Russia that is now and the way it is under Putin. And secretly of course the wish for "fundamental change" is for Russia to roll over and accept US hegemony and pretend it doesn't have any interests or rights other than those that exactly align with what the UK/US want them to be.

So you are of the opinion that peace can be achieved with Putin in place? Provided he is held in a weak position, with some stability, I would agree with you. But this may not be possible and it might not work for him. Perhaps these acts of aggression are required for him to maintain himself in power and he would feel threatened if he is left weak. There are the problems of what might happen in Russia if it is relegated to a world pariah. He could then lash out in a more dangerous way, or the Russian people could react in some aggressive way. There is also the geopolitical considerations in which China could align with Russia and the world could divide into those states who are with Russia and those who are against.

For NATO, leaving Putin to get bogged down in Ukraine, depleting his forces until sanctions bite might have the best outcome. But this may involve the destruction of Ukraine, a sovereign state and war crimes on a massive scale. Can NATO stand by and watch this happen.

Andrew Levi co-led a UK diplomatic crisis response to Putin’s invasion of Georgia in 2008. I’m not sure what he’s done recently, but is occasionally interviewed in the media on the motives and ideology of Putin.
He arrived at his view of Putin during that mission and tried to warn the British government about Putin at the time and was largely ignored.

What I’m interested in is how this interpretation might inform an assessment of what Putin will do as the war escalates (if it does). I was thinking that if Putin is essentially a mafia boss, he is less likely to press the button than if he is a mad man, or a megalomaniac. But will retreat while claiming victory, justification and victimhood in relation to the enemy. That his primary motivation and goal is to remain in power and autocratic control of Russia. That invading his neighbours is part of that strategy

Now that Covid is endemic here in the U.K. and May we’ll be in other countries by now. Perhaps it’s time to consider if there is likely to be a deadly variant, or whether covid will fade away into fairly harmless variants.

A new variant has recently emerged in U.K,

A new Omicron variant has been found in the UK. XE is a "recombinant" i.e. a mutation of BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron strains.

What I find interesting is how the Putin’s behaviour can be viewed through the prism of a mafia boss. As opposed to a strong man, a mad man, a megalomaniac.

The author Andrew Levi is an experienced Kremlinologist.

Interesting thread, comparing Putin to a mafia boss.
https://twitter.com/AndrewPRLevi/status/1511000355781365767?s=20&t=3nD3A_OEWFEWX36lWBJEow

Indeed, sometimes one's choices don't matter to what happens eventually. On occasion the path forks and one's in a dilemma which one to take, one then does, after pondering deeply upon the options, only to find out later that both paths reunite farther down. Such things do happen. Makes me wonder if free will means anything at all!

Yes, so on this assumption some eastern mystical traditions are poor mystical practice. This is not to say that they are not excellent meditation, or mind control technique’s etc. The notion that anyone can achieve enlightenment simply by acting in exactly the correct way (as in the infinite monkey analogy) is misleading.

Also inline with the other replies I would suggest that infinity is a peculiarity of intellectual thought and cannot be applied to real world situations. For example a pendulum would decelerate & accelerate at infinite rates at the end of each swing. It might be possible to Map this mathematically, but in the real world it is clearly not what happens. Likewise I have yet to come across an example of infinity occurring, or applying to real world situations.

Well this infinite monkey analogy seems to have a malignancy about it.

But joking aside, what I was saying is that a being achieving a mystical goal, or enlightenment or whatever. Is as a result of the stage of growth they are at as a being*. So for example a mystic, or aspirant might practice really hard in a certain way and achieve enlightenment. But that that achievement was going to happen anyway, irrespective of the course of action of the mystic. That that course of action might be one of a set of behaviours exhibited by a being going through such an inevitable development in the growth of their being.

*I am working from the assumption that a being is in essence transcendent of the world, or some kind of immortal soul.

Or maybe they became more firm in the truth.

What truth are you referring to?

(I note no one else picked up this hot potato. Maybe it’s a good way into a discussion of mysticism)

Not merit, but growth.

I don’t know what JWST stands for?

I agree with Metaphysician Undercover here. Infinite time is a peculiarity of philosophy, along with the infinite monkey theorem.

Also I disagree with your point about random mystics achieving the goal eventually. As I see it and as it is taught in mystical traditions there is a path, or lifestyle. So if one puts one foot in front of the other on that path, one has achieved one’s goal. Or another way of viewing this is how an acorn becomes a mature tree. It is achieved one growth ring at a time, not all of a sudden by happenstance.

Perhaps by goal you are thinking about the realisation of nirvana. If such a state does indeed exist, then eventually every being would get there in varying ways.

Yes, the path from the person to the (true)self, put simply. I could elaborate, but it might not get us any further than that.

There is the issue of what the true self, or the Divine is and there is the issue of how the person gets there, if at all.

Agreed, but unfortunately you won’t find many folk on here who practice. In the absence of this practice it’s just words chasing their own tail.

Lots of detail around Omicron here.
https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-variant-post-1-were-fed-its

Yes I totally agree. It’s interesting that they don’t mention the so called problems caused by globalisation. Or in U.K. 42 years of Tory incompetence. But blame false enemies, which the educated can see don’t exist.

I do think though that there we’re issues with high rates of immigration between 2004 and 2016 and this made it easy for UKIP to employ xenophobia. However there were solutions to this issue without leaving the EU, but it would require competent government to achieve it. Tory incompetence wasn’t up to the job.

Yep.

Nice article, explaining simply the inevitable result of our Tory Brexit.

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/brexit-means-brexit-theresa-mays-slogan-was-truer-than-she-knew

I haven’t had time yet to watch the video. But I can answer the question it poses. Johnson can’t afford a trade war. He is becoming weaker and weaker and may become a helpless witness to an economic collapse of his own making.

I see this policy as a naive, incoherent day dream of a populist. It has some nice sounding phrases in it and it might be something which an enlightened society could achieve. But it is so out of touch with the reality in the U.K, that it smacks of insanity. Indeed the Tory government we have had for the last eleven years has moved us in the opposite direction, to a low wage, deregulated, over leveraged, imbalanced economy. With hollowed out and struggling public services and support mechanisms.

With the twin crises of COVID and Brexit, we are staring at an economic rollercoaster ahead of us. With a deluded, incompetent government in denial of the depth of the issues coming home to roost day by day.

Like a slow motion car crash, it’s difficult to avert one’s gaze.

Sorry, I’ve been busy on Twitter.
I’m fine, I’m insulated from Brexit fallout. I came to the forum today as this week is going to be important for the future relations between U.K. and E.U.

Lord Frost is getting ready to put an ultimatum to the EU tomorrow. There’s been lots of talk of a trade war with the EU over the past few days. Tory’s are ebullient in their brinkmanship, however they may be arrogant in thinking that the EU won’t turn the screws. There is talk in Brussels that it is time to hang U.K. out to dry for a while in the hope that it will bring them to their senses.

U.K. government is actually in chaos, scared of their electorate and being thrown from crisis to crisis. The E.U. Has been concerned for the U.K. economy and people, rather than seeking to punish U.K. in some way.

Major high energy use industry is on the verge of collapse due to the gas price having risen 10 fold, the government is still in denial about the depth of the energy crisis. To start a trade war at this point would throw the country into turmoil.

Watch this space, Chris Grey is worth a follow for a sober analysis.
https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/1447260026767396870

His blog from a few days ago.
https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/

Nicely put. I came across a phrase the other day, which conveys a lot about discovery and being in a few words.
“ you can’t become what you can’t see”

I think that the first step in dispelling the materialist delusion is to understand that there is a causal relationship between abstract ideas and physical things. The second step, is to understand that unlike simple processing, where 'processed' is the effect, in the case of abstract ideas, the ideas are the cause and artificial goods are the effect.

I wouldn’t describe it as “the materialist delusion”. But rather an ideology which doesn’t (from its own perspective) require a sentient being as the knower of abstract ideas. Take that knower out of the system and nothing has been lost.

I don’t think we as people who attribute a more fundamental role to the knower in this can dismiss this view. We are simply on the other side of the intellectual division between idealism and materialism. The other side of the same coin.

It is in a sub forum of politics and current affairs. It is a philosophical discussion of a current affairs issue.

Yes, although this happened many thousands of years ago. It is only recently that we have run out of new lands to colonise. And only recently that we have polluted the planet. We have to find a way to live sustainably quickly, or the ecosystem will do it for us. The later being rapid population collapse as has been happening to over dominant species for hundreds of millions of years. It’s all there in the fossil record.

Now that the effects of climate change are writ large we may have rapid political change in favour of Green party’s. Industry will adapt quickly as they prioritise providing what the market demands. The worry is groups or nations who turn against this imperative and exploit warfare to resist. Or become failed states in which there is no effective power structure, or capital to instigate the required change.

I am quite confident that China, EU, US and other Western developed countries will successfully adapt. South America is a worry along with India, the Middle East and other populous Asian countries. Smaller failed states are not so significant because as they fail their carbon foot print will fall. Although if they have forests, these will be cut down for fuel.Which is the problem with South America, the Amazon basin is already seeing climate collapse, which could turn the forest into desert.