Comments

  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    I hope you realize Trump is a populist, not a libertarian.

    So you think he's taking it too seriously. Does that mean you'd prefer to let nature take its course? I guess that would reduce social security outlays.
  • Bernie Sanders
    But as you saw, Bernie is very close with Biden in national polls and fairs well in battleground states as well. So it is a little riskier, but not by much.Xtrix
    The differences between Bernie and Biden are numerically small in the battleground states, but in my mind, the significance is magnified by the context: Trump can win each one of those states. If he wins the 3 biggest (Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan), he will win the election. He won those 3 in 2016. This makes me more nervous than does the coronavirus. Despite the low probability I will die if I get it, I'm taking the recommended precautions (social distancing, hand-washing, etc). Analogously, I'm taking precautions against Trump's being reelected.
  • Bernie Sanders
    No worries, bro.
  • Bernie Sanders
    Although I went too far when I claimed Bernie was unelectable, the fact is that the data suggests he's got a lesser chance than Biden. Do you agree that it's reasonable to take that into account when voting in the primary? IOW, if my top priority is to get rid of Trump, it makes the most sense to nominate the guy more likely to win.

    On the other hand, if someone's top priority is to move toward a more just social system, one might choose to take more risk and vote for Bernie. I'm not going to tell them it's wrong to take that risk, but I would like them to be aware that they ARE taking that risk.
  • How will Bernie supporters vote if Biden is nominee?
    As of now, 22% of survey respondents have said they will not vote for Biden if he's the nominee. This implies you disagree with Bernie's asessment of Trump, as he stated it in the debate (see below). Why do you trust his judgment in other matters, if he's so wrong about this?

    Bernie said:

    "[It is] unacceptable for Trump to be “blabbering with unfactual information which is confusing the general public...Trump is the most dangerous president in the modern history of the country. ...“The United States cannot deal with a president who is a pathological liar, who is running a corrupt administration, who obviously doesn’t know the Constitution, who believes he is above the law, who is a racist and a sexist and a homophobe."
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    How does everyone feel about Trump's handling of the pandemic? Is he rising to the occasion? This article was published 2 weeks ago:


    Trump’s Playbook Is Terribly Ill-Suited to a Pandemic


    "Americans should all hope [Trump] succeeds in mitigating the danger posed by the virus, though there are reasons to fear he is not up to the task. The new pandemic is a challenge for which his playbook seems uniquely unsuited.

    "The Trump crisis playbook to date has involved bullying both political allies, to keep them in line, and potential opponents, to prevent them from talking. It has involved lying. It has involved the deflection of attention onto other matters. It has involved attacking the attackers, spinning conspiracy theories about and spawning investigations of the investigators. It has involved bombastic dismissals of serious issues as the latest “hoax” or “witch hunt” or instance of “presidential harassment.” And it has involved endlessly reminding people that the economy is humming along and their 401(k) plans are doing well.

    "But a virus, unlike a Republican member of Congress, cannot be bullied. It doesn’t care about the president’s poll numbers. Nor does it pay any mind to whether the president describes his own handling of its presence as perfect."
  • Bernie Sanders
    Yes, and please do.

    You're right about turnout -- that's harder to predict. My "hunch" tells me that enthusiasm matters, but that doesn't seem to be panning out for Bernie with younger voters (who he wins 80% or so of).
    Xtrix

    This website shows the importance of the most populous swing states. It shows there to be 12 combinations of these states that can result in a Trump win. So I examined the most recent polls from those states. It indeed shows Biden has a better chance to beat Trump than Bernie (details below). You convinced me to focus solely on the polls, and they indeed show Biden has a better chance. Can you now accept that?

    Florida (29 electoral votes) Trump beats both, but Biden (49-51) has a more realistic chance than Bernie (47-53). Florida is a must win for Trump (Florida is in 11 of the 12 winning combinations for Trump), so it's a big deal to have a chance there.

    Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes)- polls are mixed as to who wins, but all polls show Biden winning by a higher margin than Bernie, or losing by a lower margin. 7 of the 12 Republican win scenarios depend on Pennsylvania; it's winnable, but not a sure thing.

    Michigan (16 electoral votes) lots of polls; some show advantage for Bernie, some for Biden. Michigan is in 8 of the 12 combinations for a Trump win.

    North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Trump wins some polls, loses others. Biden wins by greater margin than Bernie, or loses by a smaller margin. (NC is in 7 of the 12 Trump winning combinations). Winnable, but not a sure thing.

    Arizona (11 electoral votes) Biden has better margin than Bernie in 2 of the 3 recent polls.

    Wisconsin(10 electoral votes) Negligible difference between Bernie and Biden.
  • Bernie Sanders
    Bigot?creativesoul
    Yes, because you assume that the company that employed me (note the past tense; I'm retired) defines my political deology. Here's some other things about me:

    I grew up poor. My dad was a cook in a diner, my mom was a grocery store clerk. I was able to go to college because my father was over 65, and at the time, there was a social security benefit for children of retirees if they were in college (Reagan killed this BTW). I knew college was my way out of poverty, so I took advantage of my opportunity and got a degree in a field that was well-paying. The job opportunities in Houston are predominantly in the oil business. I have no regrets. The object of the game was to get out of poverty. I did. What's wrong with that? Is that not part of your vision?

    I never forgot where I came from, and how I got out of it: government assistance, and I'm both angered and saddened that the opportunities available to me to climb out of poverty have disappeared. Cost of college and health care are barriers that keep the poor chained to their circumstances.

    That would explain the push for Biden and the attempt to portray Bernie as 'unelectable'...creativesoul
    I have given my honest analysis. I may be wrong. Xtrix provided some cogent reasons to think I might be. You have just been an asshole.
  • How will Bernie supporters vote if Biden is nominee?
    Bernie could easily inform the black voters of how the DNC has been horrible for them, as well as the RNCcreativesoul
    Great idea! He could tell them, "What have you got to lose?" Hmmm...that sounds vaguely familiar.
    Ross Perot got nearly nineteen percent against Bush Sr. and Clinton.creativesoul
    Perot got zero electoral votes. Hillary won the popular vote 48% to 46%. The election will be won in the swing states.
  • Bernie Sanders
    Finally, I live in Texas, and worked for an oil company 33 years. — Relativist


    That would explain the push for Biden and the attempt to portray Bernie as 'unelectable'...
    creativesoul
    Bigot.
  • Bernie Sanders
    You make some good points, so I'm reconsidering. I'll review the latest polling in swing states and see what they tell us.

    One thing that doesn't seem to be measurable is voter turnout. e.g. Turnout by African Americans was the difference in Obama winning and Hillary losing. On this measure, Biden's popularity with blacks is important.
    Xtrix
  • Bernie Sanders
    Trump will surely spin, but as you said: who cares about facts? If facts matter, then lies matter.
  • Bernie Sanders
    And of course he actually hasn't delivered, but that doesn't matter.ssu
    Which of those items did he not deliver on at least in a qualified way? To be clear, I'm not a fan of the deliverables.
  • Bernie Sanders
    But I think in your case the evidence is being ignored for a more speculative and "instincts"-based justification.Xtrix
    What evidence am I ignoring? I haven't ignored the polling, I just don't think a raw reading of the polls tells the whole story - note how variable they are. This suggests a higher degree of error in them than the statistical analysis suggests. I'll give you more background on my position.

    The 1st general election I voted in was 1972. I was a big-time fan of George McGovern. He was very liberal, and very popular among young voters like me. We believed he would change the course America was on. I was so enamored of his message that I was convinced he could win. Nixon trounced him election 520 to 17 electoral votes. There are parallels to Bernie: appeal to the young; ideologically far from the center. And supporters who think with their hearts instead of their heads.

    It's hard for an extremist to win on either side (and I don't use the term pejoratively). Goldwater was an extremist Conservative, and he got trounced. I think it's because most people fear the unknown, and radical change entails lots of unknowns. I've heard from political scientists who back this up. This is the coventional wisdom. It could be wrong, but it makes no sense to dismiss it on the basis of wishful thinking - and I see lots of that in Bernie supporters (that comes out in some of the post in this thread).

    Finally, I live in Texas, and worked for an oil company 33 years. Consequently I know a lot of Republicans. Some of them aren't happy with Trump, but they're downright scared of Bernie. Most consider Biden safe and acceptable. This is consistent with what I've read and heard from never-Trumper Republicans in the news. I've heard no Republicans express the converse view, that they could live with Bernie, but not Biden.
  • Does free will exist?
    I would argue that there are 3 things that enforce your actions. Beliefs, Desires (or wants), Mood. None of which are your choice.chatterbears
    Your beliefs, desires, and mood contribute to making you who you are. Your choices are therefore a product of you, and you alone.

    It's true that you (your beliefs, desires, moods) were caused, but you weren't intentionally caused, whereas your misdeeds are intentional acts - and it is this intentionality that makes you morally accountable. Your DNA and environment were not product of deliberation, and choice making.

    You chose the misdeed from among a set of options, and you knew your choice was morally wrong. This makes you blameworthy. Blaming your mama, no matter how bad her parenting, doesn't get you off the hook, because you own your choices.

    You would not have done the misdeed had you been more mindful of the harm it would cause, or taken the consequences more seriously. The memory of your guilt will have changed you. You will have learned from your mistake, and because of this learning you will not repeat it. If you abandon the notion of blameworthiness, you will be rationalizing continuing bad behavior. You are a moral agent because your moral beliefs can influence your actions. You have both the knowledge and freedom you need to do the right thing. Your DNA and past environment had no such freedom, and their respective consequences were not the product of moral deliberation.
  • Bernie Sanders
    If people were used to voting based on policy, Hillary would've won.Benkei
    Trump's promises were appealing to some: a wall paid for by Mexico, a Muslim ban, tax cuts, replacing NAFTA, withdrawing from the Iran deal, and most important of all: judges who would strike down Roe v Wade.

    Trump delivered on all those (more or less). So the people who liked those policies then, love Trump more than ever. That's his base (roughly 35% of the electorate), and they aren't going anywhere. I bring this up to remind everyone that just because you and I like Bernie's policies doesn't imply they appeal to everyone. They won't appeal to Trump's base, and it's irrelevant whether they appeal to the (roughly 35% of the electorate) who will vote for any Democrat. The war will be won by battling for that middle. That's true regardless of who the Democratic candidate is.
  • Bernie Sanders
    You believe the DNC is conspiring against Bernie by disseminating the notion that Bernie isn't as electable. What evidence do you have of this? Bernie's electability was an issue during the debates. Candidates like Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Steier, and Bloomberg made an issue of it... — Relativist


    All of whom immediately endorsed Biden after securing just about the same amount of delegates as Bernie found himself behind after super tuesday.
    creativesoul
    Which makes perfect sense if they truly believed a moderate had a better chance than Bernie, and they accepted the fact that they couldn't be the one.
  • Bernie Sanders
    The third party run would result in a Bernie presidencycreativesoul
    :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
  • How will Bernie supporters vote if Biden is nominee?
    Regardless... electability quite simply is an unknown.creativesoul
    Sure- we can't KNOW who is more electable, but we can and should make a best guess.

    Bernie destroys Trump in a national debate. He would make him look like the fool that he is.creativesoul
    Trump says stupid things every day. There's so many of them, that a few more won't change anyone's opinion of him. Trump WILL twist the "socialist" label, and lots of people will fall for it. He'll pounce on the high cost of Bernie's programs, just as did his Democratic debate opponents. More voters are likely to be swayed by nonsensical one-liners ("Crooked Hillary", "brain dead Bernie") than by reasoned arguments. It will be painted as "our side" vs "communism" (Trump has already called him that).

    He'll do the same thing with Biden, of course. I just don't think the debates will make much difference to voters. No one voted for Biden because of his strong debate performances. They voted for him because he's moderate and they believe he's got the best chance to win (regardless of whether you believe it. It mattered to the ones who believed it).
  • Bernie Sanders
    You're right about the hard data, and I admit I'm giving you my sense of things - my opinion. Nevertheless, I provided the reasoning behind my opinion. You may disagree with my analysis, but you haven't actually shown I'm wrong.

    You believe the DNC is conspiring against Bernie by disseminating the notion that Bernie isn't as electable. What evidence do you have of this? Bernie's electability was an issue during the debates. Candidates like Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Steier, and Bloomberg made an issue of it. Trump has signalled a preference to run against Bernie- and it's not because he likes a challenge. So it's not some novel fiction that was invented as a last ditch effort to stop Bernie. It was made an issue early on. I think it's right and I gave my reasons for it. That shows I decided it on my own and that I'm not just parrotting a DNC official as a tactic to hurt Bernie's chances. I'm not anti-Bernie; I'd prefer him over Biden. But that preference doesn't blind me to what I consider the obvious.

    Given that I formed my own opinion, and that it seems a reasonable opinion, I'm not all surprised others have drawn the same conclusion. Why can't you accept that possibility? You don't have to agree that Biden is more electable to recognize that it's not an unreasonable opinion. Given that, there's no good reasons to imagine a conspiracy theory. Conspiracies do happen, but most conspiracy theories prove to be fantasy.
  • How will Bernie supporters vote if Biden is nominee?
    I hope Biden selects a younger, healthier, more functional Vice PresidentBitter Crank
    That's inevitable. The alternative is a corpse, and I don't think they're eligible.

    My current prediction for VP: Kamala Harris
  • Bernie Sanders
    The election ought be post-poned due to the corona virus.creativesoul

    It's funny that you mention that, because just this morning, I mentioned to my wife, "I bet Trump postpones the election due to the coronal virus". I was half joking, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if this comes to pass.
  • Bernie Sanders
    They win, and they do so by telling the inconvenient truth to the American people.

    In doing so, they will have helped created a well informed electorate.
    creativesoul
    I admire your optimism.
  • Bernie Sanders
    I don't care to debate who's the best person for the Presidency.


    What an odd thing to say given the context...

    :brow:

    What are you doing here then?
    creativesoul
    I was discussing electability. Did you overlook this statement? --
    Here's why I think Biden has a better chance to beat Trump than does Sanders:...Relativist
  • How will Bernie supporters vote if Biden is nominee?
    I live in a solid blue state so I usually vote 3rd party (usually Green) because to do otherwise would be to throw my vote away. If the Democrats ever nominate a candidate that at least moves them in the right direction, like Bernie, then I'll vote for them as a reward.

    But f I lived in a swing state, I would vote for whoever go the Democratic nomination just to stop the Republican candidate (so long as those nominees continue to stand for the things their parties generally stand for), so I answered "Biden" in this poll.
    Pfhorrest
    I live in Texas, a heavily red state. But there is at least a small chance that Texas will go for Biden. If Texas goes that way, Trump is likely to lose in a landslide. That would make me very happy, so I will do my little part to help that possibility happen.
  • How will Bernie supporters vote if Biden is nominee?
    I created this poll because Bernie supporters were disputing my claim that Biden had a better chance of getting elected than Bernie. If Bernie supporters vote Trump over Biden, Biden will lose. But if they'll vote for Biden, even begrudgingly, they don't have much basis for disagreeing.

    This does not mean Biden would make the better President. Some folks in that thread seemed to take it that way.
  • Bernie Sanders
    Care to address what I actually wrote? I mean, I know your personal straw targets are easy kills, but come on man...creativesoul
    You haven't addressed what I wrote, and I don't care to debate who's the best person for the Presidency. I'm primarily concerned with who's the worst.
  • Bernie Sanders
    You offered a very long list of fucking irrelevencycreativesoul
    I agree my list is irrelevant to your choice of whom to vote for.

    Bernie runs as an independent and during the national debates clearly makes the case regarding how both parties have caused everyday average Americans harm by virtue of acting upon the best interest of corporations when their interests conflicted with the average everyday American's.creativesoul
    He can certainly do that, and it will guarantee Trump another 4 years.

    None of this has anything to do with the issue I was defending: that Biden has a better chance of beating Trump than Sanders. Perhaps Bernie is the best possible person for the Presidency - I haven't disputed that. As I said, I'm just counting votes. The count is relevant to anyone who believes removing Trump is of paramount importance. Since you'd embrace a 3rd party run for Bernie, it sounds like you consider Biden and Trump as equally bad. That's your privilege. I'm not trying to convince you otherwise.
  • Bernie Sanders
    Relativist: If Bernie does that, who will this convince to vote for him?

    Anyone and everyone who wants to know what has actually been going on in the American government for the last fifty years that has caused the quality of everyday average American lives to plummet the way that it has.
    creativesoul

    In other words...Bernie supporters. You really aren't grasping what I'm saying. I'm not judging Bernie, or his desired policies. I'm counting votes. Bernie supporters are already counted, and so far - there haven't been enough of them.

    Do you want someone like Trump who has no concern whatsoever beyond his own image and wealth? Do you want someone like Biden who does not have a clue how to fix all the problems facing the people he has convinced to vote for him? Not a clue
    I get it: you want people to vote for Bernie. It's too late for me, the Texas primary is over. Do what you can to get that message out to voters in the states that haven't yet had their primaries. If the choice is as obvious as you believe it to be, then it shouldn't be a problem.
  • Bernie Sanders
    So, your argument is that because doing the right things will scare too many Republicans who do not want to do the right things, that we ought not do the right things...creativesoul
    I'm not saying that at all. I'm just counting votes, and you're mistaking that for being anti-Bernie or anti-Bernie ideas, or campaigning for Biden

    No matter how much Bernie supporters love his ideas, and no matter how right they may be, they each provide a maximum of 1 vote. You
  • Bernie Sanders
    Well, since you asked...

    You left out all of the most important stuff.
    ...Which candidate actually has a good grasp upon the root problems(actual legislation over the last fifty or so years) that have caused so so many poor Americans to become disillusioned with government altogether?

    ...Which candidate was on the right side of history in the moment?

    ...Which candidate acknowledges these problems and is willing to do everything it takes to get them corrected... even if it is a long road?
    .
    ...Which candidate can explain these problems and their solutions to everyday Americans in clear and understandable terms?
    creativesoul

    You're giving a list of the things Bernie supporters love about Bernie. It seems to me that you think these things are so wonderful, that surely many people will see it as you do and vote for him. I'm not saying they AREN'T wonderful, but what evidence is there that those items will bring in votes that Biden won't get?
  • Bernie Sanders
    We'll see how people vote in my poll. But for now, I'll summarize my position, and the counters that I've seen.

    Here's why I think Biden has a better chance to beat Trump than does Sanders:
    1) The vast majority of Bernie supporters will vote for Biden, so few of those votes will be lost (I'm testing this with the poll I posted).
    2) Biden's moderate policies will attract more anti-Trump independents and Republicans
    3) Sanders policies will scare Republicans, and Republican-leaning independents - increasing their turnout (I'm not criticizing the policies, just noting that this backlash should be expected);
    4) The enthusiasm of Bernie's base was expected to drive high turnout, but this was didn't happen in the primaries, so there's no reason to think it will occur in the general.
    5) This is possible, but not certain: Biden is very popular with black voters, and therefore they may turn out in greater numbers if he's the nominee. Expect Obama to help a lot.

    Here's the counters I've received:
    1) Biden has dementia, and people will prefer a crazy man to one with dementia
    2) Bernie is very popular in Vermont (he's tops in the Senate for popularity among constituents).
    3) Most people want medicare for all
    4) Bernie's unique qualities (not status quo, real solutions, not half measures) will attract votes.
    5) Biden has liabilities that will be exploited by Trump (e.g. dementia; his record).

    Let me know if I left anything out.
  • How will Bernie supporters vote if Biden is nominee?
    That's good info. Thanks. I infer that Biden would get at least 75% of Bernie supporters. Possibly more because of the variety of issues with Hillary.

    Even so, what matters are the Bernie voters in swing states.
  • How will Bernie supporters vote if Biden is nominee?
    I tried editing it to add 'other' but that didn't seem possible. How about voting 'stay home' and clarify your position in a post?
  • Bernie Sanders
    Ohhhhh boy. I'm just gonna refer you right back to my original post in which I showed that Biden and Bernie are TIED as to who will vote for them over Trump.

    I'm sorry, but it really seems like you just don't want to understand what several people (so, phew, it's not just me!) here have been telling you.
    Artemis
    By "original post" are you referring to the one where you referenced the Newsweek article? It doesn't address the topic of who has a better chance betwee Biden and Bernie. Sure, Biden has vulnerabilities. It's an exaggeration to claim he has dementia, so if want to make a case you should avoid hyperbole. Bernie has liabilities too, and I've seen no acknowledgment. His liabilities are the polarizing nature of his policies. I wonder if you simply don't want to believe that, because of your passion for his policies. Bernie's policies turn more people off than does Biden's. Either of them can get the strong anti-Trump vote, so I calculate a net loss for Bernie.

    Here's the ultimate test for Bernie supporters: will you vote for Trump if Biden is the nominee? If no, then what makes you so sure others will do exactly that?
  • Bernie Sanders
    Because voters have been convinced that he can't win and isn't "electable."Xtrix
    I am one of them, and I see good reasons to think it's true, and haven't seen good reasons to think otherwise. Got any?
  • Bernie Sanders
    ust because they sound like they could be true, doesn't mean they are.Artemis
    Of course, but it makes it a reasonable belief. I'm awaiting reasons to believe it false. This isn't one:

    The metric cited is popularity with his constituents. Sure, he's a shoe-in to win Vermont. This has no bearing on whether he can win Florida or Michigan.
    His policies are also the ones that most Americans support.Artemis
    Will you vote for Trump if Biden is the nominee?
    My guess is that everyone who supports Medicare-for-All is going to vote Democrat, no matter who is the candidate.
  • Bernie Sanders
    That is a snowballing effect, but at the core of that snowball is that there are good reasons to believe Biden is more electable: as a moderate, he is more likely to bring in independents and never-Trumpers. Polling in swing-states consistently showed he had the bigger edge over Trump. By contrast, Bernie strikes fear in moderates and independents - this can drive up opposition voting.

    So make the case for Bernie- show why we should consider him more electable. No need to tell me how much you like him, or why. Explain the broad appeal you think he has. As I said before, the only rationale anyone has given me so far is that he'll bring out the vote, but if that's the case, why wasn't there greater turnout from his key demographic- young voters?