Powerful actors will act powerfully, that's in the definition. So if they are not resisted powerfully, then the effect is consent to whatever it is they are doing. They will not wait for us to make up our minds whether we consent. They will not temper their force in line with our uncertainty. Least of all in war. — Isaac

:100:

Your and Tzeentch’s frustration to present your reasons in a persuasive way to your opponents leads you both to caricature your opponents’ views. This attitude is intellectually dishonest and repulsive to me. — neomac

You are projecting so hard I could point you at a wall to show off a PowerPoint presentation.


I don't need absolute certainty to be sure of something. Absolute certainty doesn't exist, and the pretention that such is necessary to take a strong stance towards something, that is intellectually dishonest, especially when that standard is applied one-sidedly to the narrative you happen to disagree with.


Moreover, outside of philosophical debate this type of approach to worldly affairs is, in one word, weak. We're dealing with actors that will take every opportunity to bullshit you, and here we are waiting for that distant moment when we arrive at crystalline certainty (a pipe dream) to call out said bullshit.

That's crippling insecurity masquerading as intellectual rigor.

As I said before, it's a sign of the times. Propaganda has so thoroughly gaslit and intellectually neutered citizens that now they need an "official" story to be sure of anything. Whatever happened to independent and critical thought?

I can't quite remember...@Tzeentch, do you have any recollection of 'veiled threats' coming from anyone? — Isaac

I do seem to recall something...

(December, 2021)



And...

(January, 2022)




But why would they ever do that? What could be the possible motive?!

Oh, I recall something about that too...

(2014)




It seems we have a public admission of intent and motive, and an independent investigative source providing a detailed account of events.

I just can't for the life of me figure out how this fits into the picture that Russia probably did it, and that the US certainly didn't do it. :chin:

Why on earth would we be contemplating theories which are merely "not impossible"? — Isaac

On a more serious note, we're seeing the effectiveness of plausible deniability at work.

If you give people who desperately do not want to face the obvious something to latch onto, they will. No matter how improbable it is.

As they say: man is not a rational, but a rationalizing animal.

Yet not impossible for someone without the training. — ssu

You don't know anything about diving, do you?

The telegraph seems to confirm a single (joint agency) source. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/07/nord-stream-pipelines-blown-pro-ukrainian-group-us-intelligence/ — Isaac

The incident had been variously blamed on Moscow, Kyiv, and, in one more outlandish theory, the CIA - ...

:rofl: I just can't.

Have we already forgotten about this?



Use your brains, people.

We now have an intelligence "leak" (officially sanctioned it seems) blaming private individuals. How likely is that really? Getting explosives? Planning? Skills? And no government involved? — Benkei

Private individuals delivering the equivalent of over a metric ton of TNT on underwater pipelines the location of which isn't publicly available and would require elaborate underwater surveys to accurately locate? In multiple locations? Detonated remotely? Without being detected in a body of water that is monitored 24/7 by multiple nations poised to hear a mouse fart?

Fucking zero.

Whether they're coming from Moscow, Beijing or Washington, propaganda narratives all have the same goal: further cementing their foothold in the minds of those who already agree, and sowing doubt in the minds of those who don't.

Among the citizenry of developed nations we see symptoms of this: a complete and utter lack of confidence in their own ability to tell right from wrong and fact from fiction.

This is in essence gaslighting on a societal level, exactly how it was used by the totalitarian regimes of the 20th century.

Damage control from Washington. I'm guessing they couldn't get a lid on Hersh's story, and they figured having a shitty narrative is better than having no narrative. Plausible deniability and all that.

I don't think I've ever seen such a shockingly blatant attempt at bullshitting the public in my lifetime.

The media utterly voids Hersh, and when "anonymous officials" report on "undisclosed information" about "anonymous groups" about which "much is still unclear" they're all reporting in tandem.

Please.

The only thing more concerning than this is the fact that there are people who will actually believe it.

Wouldn't have ended (supposed) Putinian NATO-phobia. Their arguments against NATO expansion would apply to the remaining Ukraine just the same. — jorndoe

No, it wouldn't have ended the mutual distrust, but it would have ended the war with Ukraine mostly intact, and it would have at least created a basis upon which nations could have gone into dialogue once again.

Most importantly, tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of lives would not have been lost.

The Ukrainians wouldn't have it, ... — jorndoe

It's the Americans who blocked the peace talks in late March 2022, when, according to Sachs' account, an agreement was already on the table.

... all the while Putin being hailed/encouraged as a victorious leader at home. — jorndoe

In the era of modern propaganda literally anything can be spun into a victory, so the idea that we can somehow "teach Putin a lesson" is naive.

This is what is called "personalizing" a war - making a conflict that concerns millions about our feelings towards individual people.

But perhaps more importantly, Ukraine is getting utterly ruined, and it, not Russia, will suffer the most from the West playing hardball.

Such flirting with complicity might have consequences, ... — jorndoe

If you consider peace talks and compromise to be equal to criminal complicity, I don't know what to tell you.

Ideal solutions don't exist, so the only choice is compromise. The alternative is never-ending war.

Just curious, are you an American?

I don't take Scott Ritter very seriously. — Tzeentch

Yudin, then? Others? (Just those assigning specific blame...?) — jorndoe

I agree with Mearsheimer's view that the West, most notably the United States, bears primary responsibility for this conflict, though it goes without saying the Russians bear a great deal of responsibility as well.

Oh boy, they must be getting desperate in Washington. Been a while since I had a laugh like this.

Yet he doesn't think... — neomac

I don't care about what Scott Ritter thinks. He goes around proclaiming Putin to be a great man and Russia being "on the right side of history", etc. I don't trust such a person's judgement. If you do, good for you.

Hersh's sources from the US intelligence services seemed to believe the drive on Kiev could have been a diversion. Hersh states that explicitly. Looking at the facts as we know them, I came to the same conclusion, and I do have the relevant academic background to develop my own general picture based on rudimentary data like troop numbers, movements, etc. That's good enough for me. If you're not convinced, that's fine too.

Then which other expert is explicitly supporting the "diversion hypothesis" as you do? — neomac

I never said any expert explicitly supports it. What I said was that Hersh's recent interviews lend credibility to the idea, since he states his sources from within US intelligence believed it.

He also gave the figure of 60,000 Ukrainian defenders, which supports the hypothesis.

If you're going to turn this into a repeat of our previous argument, I suggest you stop here.

Scott Ritter, a "diversion theory" supporter (I suspect it's him your first expert source)... — neomac

Couldn't be further from the truth. I don't take Scott Ritter very seriously.

Do you?

But the question I have for you, is, are you supporting Putin's war? — Wayfarer

Of course not.

Because it seems to me, that you're basically repeating Russian propoganda. — Wayfarer

That is because everything that contradicts the western narrative is automatically labeled as Russian propaganda.

All of what I said is supported by hard facts and expert opinions (which I will happily share if you're interested).


I'm laying out the painful reality of the situation, because cheerleading and sugar coating aren't going to change it, and the price of ignorance is paid every day by the young men dying on the frontline, and civilians suffering under the war.

Seems a stretch that the current situation was Putin's plan all along. (?) — jorndoe

I think Putin had hoped the West would back down after the initial invasion, and a negotiated deal could be struck. (Peace talks in late March/early April 2022 imply as much).

They may have expected the United States to back down, since the US cannot afford to bind itself in Eastern Europe with China being the real threat to its global influence.

When the US blocked peace talks, I think the annexation of Donbas and Zaporizhzhia was the plan B, and by and the large the Russians have been successful at turning the war in their favor. Ukraine is on western life support, and it's a matter of time before the continued pressure of war takes its toll.


Ultimately western support will only delay the inevitable. The type of aid Ukraine is receiving is not the type that can turn a losing war into a win (or even a stalemate for that matter). Handfuls of high-tech equipment don't win wars. They are barely worth setting up the elaborate logistical chains to get them operational in the first place.

The only reason these things aren't yet part of the western common sense is because of a relentless propaganda campaign.

For example, the defense on Kiev has been framed as a heroic Ukrainian defense and a huge failure of the Russian armed forces. However, the order of battle on the Ukrainian side was never disclosed which means it's hard to tell what exactly happened.
Recently, Seymour Hersh gave an interview in which he named the figure of 60,000 Ukrainian defenders at the battle of Kiev. Assuming that's true, and I suspect that it is (and probably the reason why the order of battle remains undisclosed), this means the defense of Kiev was a successful Russian attempt at diverting forces away from the east. The Russians attacked Kiev with ~21,000 troops. This is a small amount for a city as large as Kiev, but against a defending force of 60,000 there's simply no way this force was meant to capture the capital. One would have expected the Russians to aim for a local numerical advantage of at least 3:1, especially for the type of urban fighting the capture would have involved. This would have required roughly 180,000 troops - basically the entire Russian invading force.

In other words, the western media spin was pure bullshit to influence the public perception of Ukraine's chances in this war.


Let me end by saying, I find no pleasure in these hard facts. But ultimately it's in everybody's best interest, and especially the Ukrainians', that we don't harbor illusions. Young men are needlessly dying every day for a country that's clinging to futile dreams of victory.

When peace talks were started in late March, that should have been the end of the war.

So you agree that a European security cooperation that does not involve primarily the United States and the United Kingdom would be beneficial to Europe, and it's just the practical aspects that you are worried about?

I think an important aspect of NATO's behavior in regards to the war in Ukraine is being left unaddressed.

Who have been some of the biggest hawks from the NATO side?

The United States (the most influential NATO member by a mile-and-a-half) and the United Kingdom, both having been involved in the blocking of a peace deal that was on the table in April of 2022.

What do these states have in common?

They're both island nations, and they don't share the same security concerns that the countries on the European mainland do.

Odd, how we Europeans are letting countries who will not bear the full burden of war in Europe stoke the fires.


Therefore following statement:

Europe would be better off replacing NATO with a military coalition that involves only the countries connected to the European mainland.

The combined GDP of the European nations dwarfs that of Russia (the only geopolitical competitor in the region), so there's really no reason Europe should lean on the United States for their security.


Obviously the practical implementation of this is a whole other story. The European Union is a non-democratic abomination that needs to be replaced with something that is actually functional before this could ever happen, but lets leave that aside for now.

Don't you think it's a little odd to simply start stealing from rich Russians, when the story is that this is "Putin's war" that no one in autocratic dictatorship Russia actually supports? :chin:

You're beating about the bush.

If you're in favor of using coercion in order to make people change their behavior that's fine. But don't sugar coat it by making appeals to 'responsibility'. As I said, responsibility can only be taken up voluntarily. "Imposing responsibility" is just a euphemism for coercion.

That suggest that you believe the Southern slave owners were being responsible in the way they conducted their businesses. — praxis

It doesn't suggest that at all.

What if a business dumped toxic chemicals into a nearby river in order to avoid the cost of proper disposal and the pollution had a negative effect on the environment and the health of nearby residents, would that be responsible or irresponsible? — praxis

That would be irresponsible.

Responsibility can't be imposed by force. That's just coercion.

What kind of a ridiculous question is that? You want a normal conversation or what?

No.

You know that’s silly. If you actually believed that, I could go to where you live and take all your liberty by force, make you my slave, and because you’re philosophically opposed to forcing others to be responsible or whatever your hands would be self-tied and you would be a compliant slave. — praxis

To stop someone from assaulting another is not a matter of "forcing someone to be responsible". What kind of mental gymnastics is that?

Recently Seymour Hersh gave an interview in which he shared inside information about the view of the Ukraine war from sources within US intelligence.



At 19:58 Hersh goes into their view of the war, and how it differed from what the newspapers were publishing.

If we are to believe Hersh's sources, it turns out the idea of the advance on Kiev being a binding operation and not an attempt at capturing and occupying Kiev - an idea that I have posited multiple times in this thread - wasn't so far-fetched after all. In fact, it might've been exactly what took place.

Hersh names the figure of 60,000 Ukrainian defenders. The Ukrainian General Staff gave as their estimate for Russian troops attacking Kiev around 21,000.
This is essentially what I was already suspecting, and probably the reason why the Ukrainian order of battle remains undisclosed to this day, since it implies a successful Russian diversion, rather than the heroic Ukrainian defense it was framed as by the media.


The whole interview goes much further. It puts a bomb under the entire western narrative, which could already be seen cracking.

As Hersh said himself about his report on Nord Stream: all he did was dissect the obvious. And the only reason obvious things aren't said out loud is because of deafening US propaganda basically gas lighting the entire western world.


Anyhow, this is the umpteenth crack in the story. Can't wait to see the apologetics.

I don't know of any definition of "liberal" that isn't essentially about equality of some kind. — frank

I don't know of any that is.

But that's besides the point.

Most societies seek some sort of medium between liberty and equality. That doesn't change anything about the pursuit of equality being anti-liberal in nature.

Pursuers of equality calling themselves liberal are deceiving themselves and others. It's as simple as that.

Affordable healthcare isn’t responsible? Regulations aren’t responsible? Etc. — praxis

No, you're not getting my meaning.

Forcing people to act in ways that you perceive as benefitting the common good has nothing to do with responsibility. Responsibility is taken (up voluntarily by the individual), not imposed (through governmental threat of violence).

Civil Rights means the government is divided against itself. One part tries to protect equal opportunity, equality under the law, etc. from the other part. — frank

Sure, and I'm not saying that all equality bad.

But the pursuit of equality is anti-liberal by definition, so it makes no sense that those who campaign for ever more equality should call themselves liberal.


Ironically, both these cases remind me of Orwellian double-speak.

It seems to me modern progressivism is best described as pursuing ideals of (what I consider) extreme equality, and anti-capitalism, probably with (some form of) marxism as the alternative. — Tzeentch

And that's anti-liberal? — frank

Naturally. Wherever man is free, there exists inequality. The only way to make people more equal is to make them less free. The more equal people are made, the less free they are.

Moreover, the way governments make people equal is through the use of force. The more equal people are to be made, the more far-reaching governmental powers will have to be, and the more extreme their measures.

The question that never seems to be asked is what happens to all that power accumulation at the top.

Liberty requires responsibility and modern liberalism pursues that responsibility. — praxis

As for the first part, maybe so.

However, I don't think pursuing responsibility is what "modern liberalism" does. It simply tries to force people into acting in ways it considers "responsible" - that is not liberal. That is authoritarian.

Equality always comes at the expense of liberty, so the pursuit of it is by definition anti-liberal.

What ideals are you talking about? — frank

It seems to me modern progressivism is best described as pursuing ideals of (what I consider) extreme equality, and anti-capitalism, probably with (some form of) marxism as the alternative.

So, suddenly, in one generation, progressives turned into their opposites because... (enter bogeyman) wokism! — Baden

Not really.

Wokism is just a more racially-oriented, extreme version of the same ideals progressives hold today, and those ideals are a reaction to actual liberalism. To call oneself an anti-liberal however doesn't look very good, so the modern progressives kept the tag "liberal" while pursuing ideals which are profoundly anti-liberal.

Woke is clearly progressive.

Nowhere did I claim that "woke" is an umbrella term for progressivism.

"Typical tactics", "I understand what you're trying to do", "poisoning the well" - get a grip, mate.

But conflating the mad fringes of wokeness with progressives in general as Tzeentch has tried to do... — Baden

Stop replying to me if you're not going to make an effort at understanding my position.

You call Putin a liar in one sentence and take his word in the next.


Odd how that whenever it suits your narrative we should trust his word, and whenever it doesn't suit your narrative, he's lying.

15 years of protest against NATO expansion > Not a genuine expression of worry, but a carefully crafted lie.

Some war-time rhetoric > Not nonsense narratives meant to influence the public, but a genuine expression of his intentions.


You have to be pretty deep down the propaganda rabbit hole not to see this.

Also, "woke" is not liberal. It's progressive, though I would sooner call it regressive since it has effectively worked to dial back the clock on the role of race in society some 50 years. Alas, "woke" believes the changes they propose would benefit society, thus progressive is the proper term.

'Liberal' is just the label it inherited from the last wave of progressives, which had some right to call themselves liberals. Woke is just wearing it like a wolf in sheep's clothing.

What can be considered "progressive" these days is a counter-movement to actual liberalism, and is basically its polar opposite. It's attempts at controlling speech and people's thoughts are eerily Orwellian, and authoritarian to the very core.

"You will recognize them by their fruit."


As I said,

When I start looking at their actual effects, these "spontaneous" movements for "the betterment of society" seem to me premeditated attempts at spreading division, probably for the betterment of less than altruistic political agendas. — Tzeentch

What we're seeing today is the angry, radical, self-loathing Malcolm X approach.

I wish there were more Martin Luther Kings around.

Woke promotes racial segregation. Need me to repeat it?

I think Mearsheimer argued that the Kremlin decided Crimea is important enough for a Russian power position to grab. Maybe that's just part of it. Anyway, never mind me, carry on. — jorndoe

In a nutshell, this is basically it. Crimea is the prize here, however the connection a lot of people don't make is that a Ukraine in NATO (or otherwise allied with 'the West') would put Crimea in a permanent state of vulnerability since its only connection to Russia proper is the Kerch bridge.

This is why Russia chose to invade Ukraine. The first thing it did during the invasion was establish a land bridge with Crimea.

Much of Russia's conduct in this war, including what we know about the peace negotiations that took place in March 2022 point towards the securing of Crimea being their main strategic goal, either through annexation of parts of Ukraine, or through a negotiated deal.

I think he wanted to squash Ukrainian prosperity and block its efforts to join the EU. I think he also wanted to use the war to shore up his grip on dictatorship. — frank

I don't think either of these explanations hold much water, and basically exemplify the inability that is prevalent in this thread to see the Russians as anything other than cartoon villains.