Yes, although I would point out that the climb down will have to come from the UK side, because it is they who are not happy with the rules as laid out by the members of the market they are seeking access to. These rules are simple and practical trading terms, whereas the UK position is conflating some vague notion of sovereignty with these conditions, thereby falsely concluding that by agreeing to these rules, the UK will become trapped or enslaved somehow by the EU. This is entirely unreasonable, illogical and stupid. — Punshhh

I don't think you can describe the level-playing-field as trading terms, and that's what the Tories object to. The EU wants to force the UK to follow whatever rules it has now or in future on govt subsidies, environmental, wildlife and labour welfare standards etc. I think the Tory view is bone-headed, but it's an entirely consistent one to insist that these are political matters and that if it's to be a sovereign nation the UK should have complete control of them.

I think it's so that even if it's No deal on Jan 1st, the situation could be reviewed soon thereafter. So maybe we'll get a few months of tarifs and a swift reconsideration by both sides in the light of all the problems.
Otherwise, given how far apart and absolute the entrenched positions are, I fail to see how a deal can be reached. The climbdown needed by either side would be too large and humiliating, and would undermine their having pushed the negotiations this far.

I wonder if Boris's thinking is that to leave with no deal now will mean hardship, but he'll be able to blame some of it on Covid. In 3 years time it'll be water under the bridge and he can trumpet the opportunities of being a free country in the next election campaign. The EU have offered a no tarifs deal now, and only the risk of imposing them later if there's a disagreement about the playing field tilting. That sounds better now, but in the next election campaign amid Tory plans to cut burocracy to increase competitiveness it may harm Tory chances. So Boris is bolstering his own prospects long term. If the country's 2% per year poorer, well he'll say the Brexit vote showed people want freedom more..

I’m not so optimistic, but let’s see what happens tonight. Will Boris hand her the shit hamburger, or roll over to have his tummy tickled. — Punshhh

I'm starting to share your pessimism now. Does Boris really think he'll keep the red wall voters Tory with the Rule Britannia crap about sovereignty in the face of tarifs etc? Is he really going to reject any deal rather than risk backing down on sovereignty?
It strikes me that the only reason the fishing issue has not been put to bed already is that the level playing field stand-off on its own would not be enough to satisfy the tabloid readers and Brexiteers Boris is pandering to. To justify no-deal he needs at least 2 good reasons, and 1 of them must be understandable to the layman. So the level of disagreement with the EU is being exagerated for public consumption.
Maybe his Churchill delusion is now overcoming his common sense..

I could be wrong and he's more of a self-destructive ideologue, but I've seen nothing to change my mind yet. — Baden

No way. Boris is much more like Trump. He will do whatever it takes to hold on to power. If that means contradicting past policies, snubbing the right wingers in his party - as long as he thinks the tabloid readers see him as Winston Churchill - the saviour of Britain - and vote for him next time, he'll do it.

The analyisis now seems to be that the fisheries differences can be managed over time, and the level playing field simply needs an independent body to rule on future law changes by either party that lead to a divergance. This is not uncommon in trade agreements. So a deal is there to be done if both sides want one. Does Boris want one or the disaster of trade tariffs? Could he sell the 'taking back control' platitude to voters who'll see wholesale price rises, job losses and shortages in shops next year? No. But with even a compromise deal he'll still be able to sell Brexit itself as 'taking back control'. Some Brexiteers will moan he's sold out but they won't matter any more - certainly not by the time of the next election. That will do for Boris..

No sweat?!? I think there's literally buckets of sweat pouring out of the brows of a large number of people right about now. — Wayfarer

I'm guessing Boris isn't one of them.

So - this Sunday is the actual, final, drop-dead, once-and-for-all deadline. It seems there have been so many missed deadlines, so many moving goalposts, in this saga. — Punshhh

Is this Sunday the final deadline? We'll see. 4 weeks are still left and it's amazing how seemingly fixed barriers can move. Still, the fact that Boris is getting involved is indeed a sign. Remember the Brexit talks? He stepped in at the last moment and pulled a deal out of the fire, basically by removing one of his own red-lines. It's true that his support among Tories isn't as cast-iron as it was then, but he's a risk taker, so it's a precedent I suspect..

So even after - what is it - 5 years, it's still a cliffhanger. Deal or no deal? — Wayfarer

There will be a deal, no sweat. The failure would be too huge for either side to justify it. Both would be villified by their own supporters, and all their opponents. They'd be humiliated and taunts of 'resign' would be in the air. Only a few rabid Farragists would be happy.

Readers want what they are convinced to want — unenlightened

So they don't have the wit or desire to think for themselves. QED.

Twas ever thus I'm afraid. Doubtless you think Marx was right. Unfortunately he didn't understand human nature either.

It's a crime when it is engineered. Murdoch made sure that every 1 in 2 native English speakers in this world ends up a total moron by the age he or she can watch the tely. — Olivier5

"Engineered"? Murdoch simply sells papers by giving readers what they want, which is not challenging their ill-formed views and promoting fear of the unknown, but reinforcing them to promote outrage against the 'known' foreigners - simplistic stereotypes though they are.

"You can lead a horse to water..."

My take is: the crime of anachronistic nationalism. — Olivier5

Yes, but that's just a symptom of the even deeper crime; fear and ignorance, one that man will sadly never find redemption from. Of course - and even more sadly - it's not a crime really..

There was definitely a stand off of some sort in Downing St, Cummings and Cain either jumped, or were pushed during the same episode. — Punshhh

Yes, we havent heard much speculation about the background to that. I suppose Brexit is the most likely one as Cummings was such a die-hard Leaver. Boris though is a pragmatic politician and knows when to accept a partial victory. He's had few even of those recently!

I don't think there is going to be a debate for much longer about whether the Scots deserve a 2nd referendum; just whether the govt can get away with not giving them one. But as Sturgeon says, it's a lose-lose situation for Westminster, as the more they refuse, the more angry and insistent the independents will get, and the more of the undecided vote will swing their way.

but he is hostage to the ERG and the perception that the amount of sovereignty that would need to be given away at the last minute to reach the paper thin deal, is to much to countenance. Better to cut free with a no deal and have pure untarnished sovereignty, no matter what the chaos that will ensue. — Punshhh

Well I heard Peter Bone, who I think is ERG sounding quite upbeat about wanting a deal and expecting the compromises would be made. Anyway, with an 80+ majority Boris isn't in hoc to the ERG any more. A few zealots are standing up for the UK fishermen, just as Macron is for his own, but the money they make is so small compared to the no-trade-deal hit I can't see that swaying the decision.

Well commentators (and ERG MPs) are forecasting a trade deal in the next week. Time for EU members to ratify the deal is running down fast. Maybe Boris's loss of his US bum-chum has weakened his knees, and fear of Biden's retribution if he reneges on the Brexit deal has weakened his bowels.. As he puts his foot in it in a new way every day (yesterday he called devolution a disaster) he can hardly afford to fail now.

At first I thought all this business about the election being rigged was just another one of Trump's games. Now I'm thinking he's probably having an ego meltdown, while his family works quietly behind the scenes trying to bring him back down to Earth. — Hippyhead

I said this back on Page 50. :wink:

What all the populists have in common is that they call for radical change, and usually change along some simplistic model of the world.

Trumpism before Trump was Obama's "hope and change". — Echarmion

I don't see how you can equate anything Obama believed with Trump's world-view.

I think populists don't call for change. Just the reverse. They surf the wave of the conservative's fear of change. Brexit was not a change but a reaction to the changing nature of the EU, a wish to hold on to a notion of Britain from the past, before immigration and those Brussels burocrats started trying to control our green and pleasant land. That's why the retirement age voters went for it and the young did not.

In the same way Trump didn't call for change either, just a reversion to an America-first view that would have been the only show in town a few decades ago. It's the fear of change, and especially that threatened by globalism and climate change, that populists thrive on. Their supporters are usually those with so little imagination they can easily bury their heads in the sand instead of considering the effects of their wall-building. The word 'conservative' isn't used for no reason..

There is an alternative interpretation for the chain of events, which is that UKIP was elected by people wanting Brexit (=policy), and once that was achieved, support collapsed. Farrage, knowing this would happen, conveniently left beforehand. — Echarmion

UKIP support collapsed as soon as Farrage left it, which was well before the Brexit deal was signed. There was however a Brexit supporting govt by then so he thought his fight was won. When Teresa May failed to get her deal through parliament he realised it might not be, so at the election the in-coming Boris was forced to call he formed the Brexit party to keep Boris honest. Voters flocked to Farrage and not to UKIP, which still existed.

The followers of populists actually care for the policy, not the person. They care so much about the policy that they're willing to put up with anyone who gets them closer to that goal. — Echarmion

Sorry but I can't agree with that. The followers of populists follow the person as much as the policy. It's been said many times that Trump was policy-lite. His basic stance was of simplistic anti-immigration anti-leftie anti-foreigners tropes that anyone could understand. His rise was echoed by Farrage in the UK. When he left UKIP and politics altogether it collapsed. At the last election he returned and formed the Brexit Party, which stood in the election with no policies at all, except to achieve Brexit. Millions voted for him. The idea of Brexit was agreed to by many others, but only Farrage was liked and trusted enough to get the poll ratings. (His party ended up being irrelevant because Boris Johnson removed any point in voting for him by copying his Brexiteer stance.) Populists appeal to voters who are bamboozled by the complexity of policy, and they keep it in simple primary colours. They are usually political outsiders - as the voters believe themselves to be. These voters will probably not vote at all but just moan about politicians in general until a charmismatic figure comes along to galvanise and organise them.
Where was Trumpism before Trump? His right-wing views were (probably secretly) held by many, but only when he came along as the new Messiah who spoke their black-and-white language did voters wake up and flock to him.

I think Trump was a President his supporters simply believed to be more than he was. — ssu

It's called The Cult of Personality. People voted for him because they trusted him as one of their own. In the UK Nigel Farrage had the same appeal. He too came from outside the political establishment. Once Farrage left UKIP it floundered under several leaders. It is not as easy to replace these populist icons as it may appear. It's them, not their policies that voters trust.

What's driving this at a most fundamental level is the accelerating development of knowledge, which is driving social change at a pace faster than our ability to adapt. — Hippyhead

I'm not sure what you mean by this 'accelerated development of knowledge'. Technological progress? I agree with the sentiment, but in its place I'd claim globalisation is the driver. The established political classes really have no answer to the perils of globalisation for the blue-collar worker. If markets globalise jobs will migrate to whichever country can pay its workers least to produce the goods. This is the cause of the fear and growing xenophobia which manifests in working class voters. Trump's nationalism plays to this audience perfectly. Yes mainstream politicians have no answers, but in what ways are they corrupt?
Personally I think Biden may have hit a goldmine in pledging $2 trillion to fight global warming. This will mean jobs which cannot go overseas. Or are you going to import 10000 Chinese roofers to insulate houses? It should also allay some of the fears about oil/coal/gas jobs disappearing.

Furthermore, while I'm ranting, the insistence of SO MANY liberals on insulting rural and working class Americans is an act of pure stupidity. — Hippyhead

This insulting by the liberals like me is not what it may seem: nothing much can be done about human ignorance and emotionalism, so insults are pointless. The insult is aimed at the cynics like Trump who deliberately set out to exploit that ignorance and its consequent fear for their own ends. I'm not American, but the situation is just the same in the UK, where Boris Johnson has committed the same dirty deeds to get Brexit voted through, so I do understand how it works. As I said above, Biden seems to me to be making all the right noises so far to allay fears of job losses. I'm guessing that most of the fear of immigrants coming into the US is jobs based. Unlike the UK you have plenty of room to build to house incomers.

The lesson the GOP is going to take from this election is that Trumpite politics can garner support from a near-majority of the electorate. — StreetlightX

I'm not convinced. The popularity of Trump was down to his being a political outsider - ie not the Republican party. His personal charisma - as witnessed by a successful TV career - is considerable, whatever we think of his politics he is great at communicating with the uneducated and fearful conservatives of rural USA. One thing I have learnt from this election is that Democrats usually do well in towns, Republicans in the isolated rural backwoods. Someone else can come along and mimic his policies, but its his personal appeal that makes people abandon sense and follow the rubbish he talks. I think his will be a hard act to follow.

The Trump speech about having the election stolen from him was truly disgusting. It was a reckless attempt to incite his base to interfere with a fair election. It was a complete disregard for everything that makes America great, most fundamentally, that it is a democracy, subject to the rule of law.

The Biden victory speech was inspirational. I've got to think the contrast has caused many to reconsider. — Hanover

Absolutely. Trump is now saying he would accept a fair result, ie beginning to build himself a way to retreat. He has failed to rouse the rabble, partly because of Biden's statesmanlike patience and inclusiveness, partly too through there being no evidence. So all but the most bone-headed right-wingers are losing the anger needed to foment violence. I believe that's what Trump was counting on. Then amid the unrest he could talk about states of emergency, mobilising troops, suspending the democratic process, emergency powers etc. That's the classic way dictators firm their grip on power. It's heartening to see that the US's democratic roots run too deep for an unscrupulous scumbag like Trump to cut them.

So Trump sulks and plays golf as his defeat is announced. On his own course of course - he still rules there if nowhere else. And they ask if he'll make a concession speech for the sake of his own legacy and to ensure a smooth transition?
He'll go down kicking and screaming and insisting he won. Grace, class, style, decency, statesmanship, sincerity, honesty: all great qualities and he lacks every one. Surely the least suitable person ever elected president.
I'm waiting to see how he plans to find the 4 million votes he needs to rightfully win the popular vote too. In 2016 he set up a commission to find them. It was quietly wound down...

Hooray!
But still want Arizona/Nevada called, to be safe, and make any legal action pointless..

The reason certain states haven't been called is because they haven't counted enough of the ballots to be sure. — Hanover

Why are these last few states so slow to count? Most states finished counting on Nov 3rd/4th. Nearly 3 days later and some are still struggling. Is it because projected swing-states deliberately take greater precautions and count slower as a result?

Interesting to hear Trump's latest ranting video. As usual he accuses his opponents of doing precisely what he's doing himself in trying to corrupt the election.
He seems tired. I think his monstrous and obsessive ego is fighting possibly its last stand against the evidence that the world will no longer bow before it. Paranoia is not far from him already. However, if he seems to be losing the faith his once-fanatical supporters will desert him qucker than rats leaving the proverbial sinking ship. If as now seems likely the remaining results pile up against him and his empty legal challenges don't even get off the ground he could undergo a complete ego collapse. For such an ego-maniac that could bring on either insanity or suicide. All I have to say is it couldn't happen to a more deserving person.

Part of Trump's political genius is that he talks non-stop (thus dominating all forms of media) but you can never really know for sure what he's saying — Hippyhead — jorndoe

Yes. This works because he has millions of voters dumb enough to believe whatever he says. They don't understand politics, but trust him to look after their interests so they just cheer whatever crap he spouts. Note he never allows anyone to question him because allowing a questioner any comeback would deflate the garbage bubbes that issue from his ass.
The factless drivel re the election being stolen from the voters because some late votes might be allowed is a case in point. It's empty rubbish. I think he is trying to stir up the right wing militias to start violence if the count goes against him. The ludicrous stuff about the Supreme Court has been ignored even by Pence. He is the most abhorent President ever, a would-be dictator. He will do anything to steal ths election. You have been warned!
(I'm a Brit, and even I'm angered and appalled by this man!)

A Downing st spokesman has said this evening, that the talks are over. — Punshhh

Officially over, yes. The 2 sides seem to have fixed positions and both are unwilling to move. But with 6 weeks still to go there is room for informal initiatives. It wouldn't surprise me if Boris is pushing it to the brink in order to maximise his own gain from miraculously pulling a last minute deal out of the fire. With the increasing hits he's taking over his Covid policies he's badly in need of a distraction. I bet he'd love to 'save Christmas' again..

Almost unnoticed amid the Covid panic the trade deal talks deadline has passed with no agreement, and each side blaming the other for not moving. In their meeting the EU leaders did not exactly express confidence and optimism that the talks should keep going, but had no option but to agree to it. Is there now a mechanism for the EU to ratify a deal even if one is reached?
With von der Leyen now self-isolating it is surely obvious that the deadline should be delayed, but there's no way Boris will agree to that, so we'll presumably get a rushed conclusion and likely a flawed deal. Or no-deal..

My question remains: In what court will a judge(s) sit to hear this case?

I was wondering in what court the EU's legal action against the UK govt will be heard.. If it's the EU Court surely the UK can just say it no longer has jurisdiction as we've left the EU. If it's the UN Court its verdict might carry some weight..

The only problem is that most shop workers won't make good brickies or welders! As for butchers, I don't see why there is a shortage. Surely they're losing their retail businesses too.

And this is true. Nobody hates the vast swarms of tourists as they bring money to the country, as they create jobs for the local population. Yet if the foreigners are seen to compete with the local population for jobs, immediately emerges a resentment against the foreigners which we call xenophobia — ssu

Tourists don't stay, and they also tend to be wealthy, respectful and support local businesses. Those who come and 'take our jobs' are the ones hated by the Farage mob. I see today Boris has marked out our lack of brickies, welders and butchers; and there are calls for the govt to lower the immigration restrictions for these occupations post-Brexit. Like all populists he's quite okay with contradicting his earlier views. There should already be some Brexiteers thinking: 'Hang on...'.

I know the GF agreement's background. But in what way does the new bill threaten the agreement? It could be said that in the case of no deal it is the EU who will put up trade barriers between NI which is part of the UK still and Eire..

it's still a breach of the Good Friday agreement. — Benkei

I'm not clear on the Good Friday agreement. The US Democrats certainly seem to be up in arms about it. In what way does the new bill threaten it? The Bill is intended to stop the EU imposing trade barriers between UK and NI, I'm not aware if it prejudices the relationship between NI and Eire.

Anyway, I think BJ is banking on the whole EU affair being tied up way before he needs to worry about finalising the US trade deal. Cross one bridge at a time..

So is this Internal Market bill going to be stopped or what? — Professor Death

The House of Lords may block it. If not it looks to me like it will deliberately be delayed until after the Brexit trade talks are completed or collapse. Boris is going to hold it as an axe over Barnier's head in the talks. I'm not sure what happens if, as they're threatening, the EU take legal action against the UK govt in the meantime though..

Interesting that the EU are so angry with Boris that they're threatening legal action - not 'no deal'.. That could be seen as a sign of weakness by Boris; but Barnier is too smart to leave the EU open to being labelled deal-wreckers this early in the negotiating game of bluff.

Also, from the House of Lordds responses so far to the new bill it seems very unlikely that the govt will ever get it into law, so it could all be academic. Are the EU aware of this?

I think even most of the Unionists will see that a united Ireland in the EU is preferable to an isolated UK in chaos — unenlightened

It seems not. I heard a DUP MP interviewed last night and his view was effectively that anything that strengthens the links between NI and the UK is a good thing. Whether the Unionists can keep hold of power is another thing altogether though..

What strikes me is the total lack of fuss with which the govt made this announcement. I remember too that a year ago Boris kept insisting the EU departure treaty he'd negotiated did not necessarily mean greater customs checks and paperwork between NI and the UK, when everyone else could see it did. So I think this new bill was envisaged even back then, and Boris never meant to stick to what he'd just signed..

We are still awaiting the EU response to the bill. It should be fun!

By Brandon Lewis's own admission the govt is about to row back on the NI aspect the Brexit withdrawal treaty, in contravention of international law. As this will mean a total ruination of the UK's trust as a negotiator with the EU (and anyone else) we must assume the trade deal is dead; we'll leave without one and Boris will blame the EU. Quite how he justifies what being seen to be untrustworthy will imply for any future agreement his govt enters into remains to be seen. Maybe his populist instincts tell him his 'base' - (yes it's the Trump term for ignorant reactionary voters, looking more and more valid in the UK too..) couldn't care about such niceties as our national reputation as long as they get to keep the nasty foreigners out of our fishing grounds..

Somehow I can't see the government surviving to 31st December, or if by some miracle they do, they will sink shortly afterwards. — Punshhh

If Boris learned one thing from the Brexit negotiations last year it's that running the clock down focuses minds on both sides - and I suspect, his in particular. Expect much more activity as the October deadline for a framework deal approaches and Covid-19 pressures ease, but brinkmanship will be the main tactic again..

Even Yesterday in parliament it's remarkable how people can still appear to take anything the government says seriously. It's engrained I think. — Punshhh

That's the advantage of being in power. Even when you talk utter rubbish like Trump everyone has to take you seriously and respond as if you know what you're talking about.

Yes it has gone quiet, I expect the SNP are giving all their time to the Covid crisis and biding their time regarding Brexit. In the knowledge that Johnson and Co are so incompetent that it will be a bad Brexit, which will fuel calls for Scottish independence. Johnson almost daily insults the Scotts and discriminates against them. — Punshhh

Early on in the Coronavirus pandemic Sturgeon was reading off the daily figures and news at her briefings and looking impatient and bored, as if she wasn't interested in the whole thing. When the opportunity of the Scots diverging from Westminster policy arose she seemed to get her mojo back and now seems to be enjoying flexing her muscles again. Strange that..

I see there are Tory rebels who cannot share the govt's hypocrisy over the immigration bill, and its lack of financial help for foreign care-workers and NHS support staff. Populist Patel predictably takes the view that the Brexit vote's anti-immigration mandate is the greater force than the realisation Covid-190 has brought that care workers are underpaid and the whole care sector depends on immigration.
Those of us with a brain have long known that any new immigration system, whatever it sets out to do (or pretends to), will result in zero reduction in immigration. All those nasty incomers came here to do vital jobs that the Brits considered too low paid to bother with. The immigrant pay floor of ~ £25k p.a. is already starting to look laughably stupid, simply barring some of those the country needs.