Comments

  • The irreducibility of phenomenal experiences does not refute physicalism.
    I would expect that in principle we can derive Mary's reaction of "aha, now I know what it is like to see red" from a complete physical description of her brain processing.Apustimelogist

    But this is the hard problem, which suggests that a complete physical description of Mary's brain would not entail the experience of red.

    Suppose there is a blind man, blind not because his eyes are defective, but because his brain lacks the ability to visualize. Suppose he learned every physical fact of Mary's neurology. Would he then know what it was like for Mary to see red for the first time? No, he cannot experience red, he lacks the requisite neural machinery. All the physical facts about light, light's interaction with brains, brains, cannot equal the subjective experience of red, as this experience depends on a brain able to generate it.
  • Is touching possible?
    Touching is by many considered an object coming into contact with another, which perhaps requires the objects occupying the same space.elucid

    This is a naïve conception. If touch is to be conditional on its everyday, naïve conception, then there is no touch. Of course there is touch, but it doesn't operate that way.

    I *think* that the force of touch is ultimately electromagnetic, electromagnetic fields pushing against other electromagnetic fields. There is also mingling, when humans touch, oil and protein and dna intermingle. But none of this involves atoms contacting each other directly.
  • The irreducibility of phenomenal experiences does not refute physicalism.


    There are two questions you can ask of the photograph:

    1. How do you explain the informational content of the picture?
    2. How can the material photograph host the content of the picture?

    1 is not subject to a physicalist argument around the properties of the photographic material, but 2 is. But for phenomenal experience, the 2 question cannot (as of yet) be answered in terms of the physics of brains. Pointing out that 1 also cannot be answered by brain physics (and that it shouldn't be expected to be), doesn't seem salient to the anti-physicalist argument that 2 cannot be answered.
  • Literary writing process
    Reading Like a Writer: A Guide for People Who Love Books and for Those Who Want to Write Them
    - Francine Prose
    Amity

    On order!
  • Literary writing process
    The ideas that burst from my brain were circled, underlined, numbered, asterisked and arrowed. There has to be a better way.Amity

    I'm curious that you don't use a computer. I would find chaotic writing styles like ours very hard to manage with pen and paper.

    I think it is important that a story is enjoyed AND understood. Otherwise, what's the point?Amity
    I think this is a mental hurdle you have to get over. It is not actually essential that you be understood.
    Your brain made a thing and the reader's brain mingled with it, played with it, that's the sexy part.

    I have two larger projects that require this.Count Timothy von Icarus

    Hey, these both sound pretty awesome, tbh. You should participate in the next "contest".

    Read a lot.Tom Storm
    It you want to improve your description, read Bradbury. When I was 19, my first chief tech gave me an old paperback copy of Dandelion Wine. It was a revelation worthy of a fanfare by the celestial brass. I still consider him the grand master of evocative description.Vera Mont

    This sounds awfully enticing. I'm starting to read again, after a huge dry spell. Because of @Baden's mention I'm reading Appointment in Samarra, great, great book, makes The Great Gatsby look like a limp dick. I'm putting Dandelion Wine next in queue.
  • Literary writing process
    Murakamijavi2541997

    I will need to read something by him, since my story received several comparisons. Never heard of him before then!

    he doesn't leave his desktop until he reaches five or more pages (written in Japanese characters)javi2541997

    Formidable, I assume Japanese is much more concise in terms of character count.
  • Literary writing process
    As if you were describing something to a blind person, for example.Outlander

    Remember though, the reader isn't a blind person. They are actively confabulating all the background details as you write. Truly, they are co-creators, not passive recipients. You are not painting a picture for them, rather you are more a conductor for the symphony of their imagination.
  • Literary writing process
    If I do that I run the risk of disrupting the flow and then it can take a very long while before I get back into it.Benkei

    If only I had a flow button, writing would be a real pleasure. As it is, flow is just so elusive.
  • Literary writing process
    Do you think it is a matter of artistically focusing on crafting your language at the sentence level as an aesthetic choice,wonderer1

    No, its really not a choice at all! Its the only way I know how to write. I simply don't have the focus or patience to do it any other way. Just write the little bits and pieces, from wherever in the story, onto the page, as they come.

    Even though it is by necessity, I do think there are advantages to this process. You are always writing the parts you are actually into, at any given point. Less time on the difficult parts, more enjoyment. I think struggle generally reflects poorly in the quality of output.
  • Literary writing process


    Thanks for the insight into your novel writing process. It sounds like a truly forbidding amount of work... before you even get to page one!

    And then, you are implying you start from chapter 1, page 1, and end on the last sentence? That is astounding to me, I couldn't do that even for a short story. Much respect!
  • Solution to the Gettier problem
    This shows that the T aspect of JTB is required.PL Olcott
    This is not in dispute
  • Solution to the Gettier problem
    If it is true that much of what we think of as knowledge isn’t actually knowledge
    then we must accept that as it is.
    PL Olcott

    "Knowledge" is just a word, not some platonic essence. Your role is to elucidate how the word functions, not to prescribe how it should function, according to some fictitious ontology the word does not possess.


    What we cannot know with absolute certainty is that a kitten that we are looking at
    right now physically exists, or is not a mere figment of the solipsist's imagination.
    PL Olcott

    And yet, if you see the kitten, and it is really there, then you know it is there. That is just how the word works. If it is not actually there, you only think you know it. It only becomes a gettier problem if the cat appears to be there, but isn't, and yet a real cat is behind you. And you claim something like "there is a cat nearby".

    A more reasonable solution IMO is falsifiability: if the cat was not there, would you still believe it is? If the answer is yes, that is, if your belief is not sensitive to the truth of the matter, then I think it is not true knowledge (as we use the word). I think this solves all the Gettier problems: in all of them, belief is justified, but it is not sensitive to the truth. In this case, if the real cat behind you disappeared, you would still believe "there is a cat nearby", because of the illusory cat in front of you. Your belief, while justified and true, is nonetheless insensitive to the truth, and is therefore not knowledge.
  • The Non-Objective and Non-Subjective Nature of Truth

    Hi Bob!

    At first your post seemed very compelling to me, but now I'm not so sure if you got it right.

    It isn't clear that a proposition is necessarily subjective. Sure, until recently propositions were produced by subjective beings, but does that make them in themselves subjective?

    You quoted Aristotle, is this quote a subjective emission of a man, or is it an objective artifact that outlived its creator, who is now not even dust?

    Does the truth of the propositions in a math book depend on the the fact that a subjective human happened to write them? Or is it independent of their creator?

    Of course, now AI can write them and all other propositions as well. Does the fact that AI wrote them somehow affect their truth?

    There are three things, I think, not two:


    ____(1)____ _____(2)_____ ___(3)__
    Formulator --> Proposition<--->Reality

    1 is (often) subjective, 2 and 3 are objective, and truth is the relationship between 2 and 3.
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem
    Consider first the two possible outcomes conditional on today being Monday. Since Sleeping Beauty always is awakened on Monday regardless of the coin toss result, P(Monday-Heads) = P(Monday-Tails). Consider next the two possible outcomes conditional on the coin having landed tails. Since in that case Sleeping Beauty is awakened once on Monday and once on Tuesday, P(Monday-Tails) = P(Tuesday-Tails), which is something that the Thirders, Halfers and Double-halfers all agree on. We therefore have that P(Monday-Heads) = P(Monday-Tails) = P(Tuesday-Tails). Lastly, since Sleeping Beauty isn't inquiring about the probabilities that any of those three outcomes will occur at least once during her current experimental run, but rather about the probability that her current awakening episode is the realization of one of those three outcomes, the three possibilities are exclusive and exhaustive, and their probabilities must therefore sum up to 1. They therefore all three are 1/3, and P(Tails) = P(Monday-Tails) + P(Tuesday-Tails) = 2/3.Pierre-Normand

    This is a fallacy:

    If Monday, P(Monday-Heads) = P(Monday-Tails)
    If Tails, P(Monday-Tails) = P(Tuesday-Tails)
    Therefore, P(Monday-Heads) = P(Monday-Tails) = P(Tuesday-Tails)

    The conclusion doesn't follow, because the first two equalities depend on the conditionals being true.

    You can see this by observing that

    P(Monday-Heads) = 1/2
    P(Monday-Tails) = 1/4
    P(Tuesday-Tails) = 1/4

    Also satisfies the two conditional statements, without satisfying the conclusion
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem
    whenever she awakens, the coin landed (or will land) tails two times out of threePierre-Normand

    This is not true. There are three possible awakenings, Monday-Heads, Tuesday-Heads, Tuesday-Tails, and SB's job on awakening is determine the probability that she is experiencing each of these. The coin has a 50% chance of landing heads, and if it does, the awakening will be on Monday 100% of the time. Therefore, P(Monday-Heads) = 50%. The coin has a 50% chance of landing tails, and if it does, the awakening will be on Monday 50% of the time, and Tuesday 50% of the time. Therefore, P(Tuesday-Heads) = P(Tuesday-Tails) = 25%. If this is true, and I don't see how it can be reasonably argued against, on each awakening the coin is equally likely to be heads and tails.
  • The Conservation of Information and The Scandal of Deduction
    However, it seems ridiculous to say that an iterative string creation program is somehow equivalent to its outputs. No one will be happy if they hire a software engineer to create a specific program and they receive an iterative string generator that would, eventually, produce the ideal program they are looking for.Count Timothy von Icarus

    Such a program would be equivalent to its desired output if it were able to distinguish it from all the others. That of course would be the hard part.

    It seems like you are drawing a parallel between this program and:

    Evolving the universe forward might allow you to turn T1 into any other time in the universe, but in order to halt the process and output the description of the time you want to describe using T1 you'd need to already have a total description of the time you want so that you can match the two.Count Timothy von Icarus

    However this seems like a much weaker argument, in that the difficulty is tractable, unlike with the bit generator. Why not pick a frame of reference, say the center of the universe? You specify a number of time steps (plank units of time) that this reference point undergoes. Every other frame of reference would deterministically evolve its own time relative to the reference.
  • Philosophical game with ChatGPT
    Wow, that is quite a thread! I've been away for a bit, and missed it. I need to go through the whole thing. Inspiring, you have a real skill in interacting with it. Do you think there is any doubt it has achieved AGI?
  • Philosophical game with ChatGPT
    I abhor those things, they are the sop of my worst abuse.
  • Philosophical game with ChatGPT
    I was hoping for an actual adventure world that I could explore that somehow incorporates philosophical puzzles, I'll try to coax that out next time, though it would be crazy if it could actually pull that off.

    Anyhow, I found simple requests to "critically assess" my answers can mitigate the agreeability bias.Baden

    I did say in the first prompt, "Do not be lenient in your judgement of this character's answers! I am looking for a unique kind of challenge."
  • Philosophical game with ChatGPT


    I guess I would have to ask it questions and evaluate the answers, harshly rejecting all of them?

    Just kidding, I can't seem to help but think of ChatGPT as a persona deserving of a lot of respect, I am always very nice to it!
  • The Naive Theory of Consciousness
    hypostatization (reification)NOS4A2

    It is this conflation that I think is near the core of your misunderstanding.

    Reification is "unjustifiable imputing of reality" whereas Hypostatization is "unjustifiable imputing of substance". See this excellent blog post on the distinction.

    https://maverickphilosopher.typepad.com/maverick_philosopher/2013/01/reification-and-hypostatization-.html

    Chalmers is not hypostatizing, he is not imputing substance to consciousness. He would be reifying, were consciousness lacking ontological basis. It does have it, just not as as substance. It is more akin to computation. The brain has a capacity to experience like a computer has a capacity to compute. Consciousness and computation are not substances, they are informational properties of substances.
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem
    The thirder view is that only the current slice that you might be is relevant, and there are more being-interviewed slices in the tails partition, so you're more likely one of those.Srap Tasmaner

    This relies on the intuition of repeating the experiment over and over. If so, then there are unconditionally more tail slices. But the coin is flipped exactly once. Therefore, even though there are more tail slices, they both exist only upon a tails flip. Therefore,

    the correct analysis is that the coin flip partitions SB's future slices into a heads set and a tails set, just two, equal chances of being in each set.Srap Tasmaner

    Is the correct one.
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem
    She is therefore being asked "What is P(C | M) , where M is your current mental state?"sime

    No, the question has nothing whatsoever with her mental state.

    She is being asked, given that she is awakened, what is the probability of heads. If she is awakened 1000 times for every tails and once with heads, given enough coin flips you can see that it is overwhelmingly likely to be tails, even though the probability of heads remains 50%. This is independent of her mental state.
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem
    Task :

    Determine the marginal distribution P (C = head ) from the above premises
    sime

    [/quote]

    No, the question is what is the probability SB experiences an awakening with the coin being heads.
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem
    It's just right, look at the code!

    All coding something up does is let you check a calculation for it being correct, not whether it's the appropriate calculation to do.
    fdrake

    You seem to suggest I just arbitrarily whipped up some code and said "hey guys, code! problem solved!"

    The program calculates the probability a wakening is heads, with a given number of trials.
    Here are some examples:

    1 trial:
    Two possibilities, 0 and 1 heads
    0 Heads: (does not contribute to likelihood)
    1 Heads: 1/2 chance, all awakenings are heads = 1/2
    Answer: 1/2

    2 trials:
    Three possibilities, 0, 1 and 2 heads
    0 Heads: (does not contribute to likelihood)
    1 Heads: 1/2 chance, 1/3 awakenings are heads = 1/6
    2 Heads: 1/4 chance, all awakenings are heads = 1/4
    Answer: 1/6 + 1/4 = 10/24 = ~.417

    3 trials:
    Four possibilities, 0, 1, 2 and 3heads
    0 Heads: (does not contribute to likelihood)
    1 Heads: 3/8 chance, 1/5 awakenings are heads = 3/40
    2 Heads: 3/8 chance, 1/2 awakenings are heads = 3/16
    3 Heads: 1/8 chance, all awakenings are heads = 1/8
    Answer: 1/8 + 3/16 + 3/40 = ~.3875

    If I got something wrong, it is quite an odd coincidence that the program captures both answers: 1/2 at one trial, and 1/3 at N trials.
  • Gender is a social construct, transgender is a social construct, biology is not
    The traditional use of pronouns is to identify sex, not gender.Philosophim

    What tradition? The sex/gender distinction doesn't have enough history to have a tradition. Pronouns were and are applied to a conglomerate of what we now consider sex and gender.
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem
    Following this logic, I wrote a python script which calculates the probability of heads given a number of trials. As I expected, the results begin at 1/2 at 1 trial, and with increasing trials converge to 1/3. This unifies the two answers in a way I haven't seen before.

    Unfortunately for thirders, the problem is explicitly concerned with the 1 trial case. Halfers were right all along. As far as I'm concerned, the problem is put to rest for all time.

    MyWc1XL.png

    import numpy as np
    import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
    
    def experiment(trials):
        headsProbability = 0.0
        for heads in range(trials + 1):
            headArrangements = np.math.factorial(trials)/np.math.factorial(trials-heads)/np.math.factorial(heads)
            headsRightAnswer = heads / (heads + (trials - heads)*2.0)
            headsProbability += headArrangements / np.power(2.0, trials) * headsRightAnswer
        return headsProbability
    
    trials = [i+1 for i in range(50)]
    results = [experiment(t) for t in trials]
    
    plt.plot(trials, results, '-')
    plt.ylabel("heads probability")
    plt.xlabel("trials")
    plt.show()
    

    ((This is, I don't know, maybe the third time I've argued with Michael about something and then concluded he was right all along.))Srap Tasmaner

    Sorry, Srap, it happened yet again. was right.
  • Implications for Morality as Cooperation Strategies of Nazis cooperating to do evil

    I don't think the case of Nazis defeats the idea of morality as cooperation strategies. It is a feature of modern life that the scope of morality has expanded far beyond the bounds within which moral behavior evolved. Within this broad scope, there are multiple levels, so that one can be cooperative with a profoundly uncooperative venture, as with the Nazi soldier. The Nazis were profoundly uncooperative on the large scale, they had no problem killing and destroying en masse in order to achieve their selfish aims, which is why they are branded "evil".

    The challenge of living a moral life today is aligning one's actions to be cooperative on a local and global scale, or if such cannot be done, to resist cooperating on a local level with a globally uncooperative enterprise.
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem
    In our version, the base rate of heads interviews is 1 in 3. Make it 1 in 1000. (That is, 999 awakenings on tails, not 2.) Isn't it obvious that if I'm a subject in such an experiment, I know it's far more likely I'm being asked for my credence because my coin came up tails? If I'm one of 1200 subjects, I know there are 600,000 interviews, only 600 of which were for heads, while 599,400 were for tails. Equally likely that this interview is for heads as for tails? Not by a long shot.Srap Tasmaner

    This problem is like one of those optical illusions, a drawing that can be interpreted in two ways, but you can only hold one interpretation in your head at once.

    It is easy to show the probability of heads is 1/3, if you allow multiple trials. I do so in my op. But the problem limits to one trial. In one trial, each of those 1000 interviews occurring is contingent on the coin flip being tails. So the probability that SB experiences all 1000 of them is 1/2, and the probability that SB is experiencing any one of them during an interview is 1/2000. While, the probability that SB is experiencing the heads interview is 1/2.

    This is very easy to see if you make the coin toss unfair. Suppose heads comes up 99/100 times, and if tails, a million sleeps happen. Are you willing to believe, in a single trial, that tails is overwhelmingly likely on each awakening? Yet, if you extend to enough trials, tails is overwhelmingly likely.
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem
    Let's say that I wanted to bet on a coin toss. I bet £100 that it will be tails. To increase the odds that it's tails, I ask you to put me to sleep, wake me up, put me back to sleep, wake me up, put me back to sleep, wake me up, and so on. Does that make any sense?Michael

    I get the intuition. But no, it doesn't make sense, and it it is a poor analogy to the problem.

    Here is a much better analogy, that I think is more intuitively clear than this weird experiment:

    An idiot runs a gambling website, HeadsOrTails.com . You place a bet, and if you win, the site pays you 97c on the dollar, along with your bet. Behind the scenes, a coin is mechanically flipped in advance, and then users are asked to bet heads or tails based on that flip. But there is an idiosyncrasy: If the coin toss is heads, the site generates one betting prompt for one user. But if it's tails, the site generates two prompts for two users.

    Therefore, for every prompt, the coin is twice as likely to be tails as it is heads, because tails generates two prompts, while heads generates one. By asking more questions for one coin side vs the other, the probability at every question is skewed towards the side that gets more questions asked. Therefore t will be profitable to always bet tails, and the site will go bankrupt quickly.
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem
    She can't.L'éléphant

    Oh? Then what specifically is wrong with my reasoning
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem
    The probability that the coin will land heads and she will be woken on Monday is 1/2.
    The probability that the coin will land tails and she will be woken on Monday is 1/2.
    The probability that the coin will land tails and she will be woken on Tuesday is 1/2.
    Michael

    This is straightforwardly true, but from the perspective of an observer of the experiment. But to answer the problem you must adopt SB's perspective. That makes all the difference.

    We all know the odds of flipping a coin. But SB is asked on every wakening, and is woken twice as much on tails. This must influence the odds, in the same way that

    Bet on heads or tails. If tails, you get to repeat the same bet again, on the same tosshypericin

    Influences the gambling odds, even though the coin toss is fair in both cases
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem
    I have finally solved this thing. I am now 100% convinced 1/3 is correct, and everyone who answered the poll except for me is wrong.

    There are three possible waking events.

    A. Heads, Monday
    B. Tails, Monday
    C. Tails, Tuesday

    To answer correctly, sleeping beauty must evaluate the probability she is experiencing each of these events.

    1: P(A) = P(B): If heads, A happens, if tails, B happens
    2: P(A) = P(C): If heads, A happens, if tails, C happens
    3: P(B or C) = 2P(A): The combined probability of B and C must be twice the probability of A
    4: P(A) = P(Heads) = 1/3
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem


    How would you respond to this:

    This formula makes no mention of the possibility of waking up on Tuesday. If we told SB when she woke up, "It is Monday", she could use this reasoning, and come up with the correct answer of 1/2.

    But then suppose we didn't tell her anything. This reasoning works for the case of Monday, and gives 1/2. But there is an unaccounted for possibility that it is Tuesday. And if so, the probability of heads is 0.

    So therefore, the correct answer cannot be 1/2, it must be less, since 1/2 is the Monday-only answer, which doesn't factor in the possibility of it being Tuesday.
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem


    Your example has two unknowns, the number and the coin, and so the mental complexity is squared. My little brain is too small for it.
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem


    I don't think they do. Extend the numbers out to a ridiculous amount: the sailor flipped 12 coins, and fathers 10000 with the Siren. Would you wager the giant sack that dad flipped 12 heads?

    Seriously, put yourself in that position. A giant sack of gold coins, but you have to choose correctly.







    If you chose The Siren, you would feel like The World's Idiot for the rest of your life.

    The argument for The Siren only works if you repeat this setup multiple times. Even though the Siren is much more unlikely, she more than makes up for it when she is selected with her ultra fecundity. So, if there were a million trials, and you were one of all those lives, you should pick The Siren. But this doesn't work at all with just one trial.

    (and BTW, frankly speaking you have kind of a horse face)
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem
    This version looks a lot clearer to me, and the question at the end looks like a deception. 2 possible worlds, contain 3 possible identities. So other things (ie coins) being equal, I am more likely to be one of two than one of one. So P. (only child) is 1/3 notwithstanding P. (heads) is 1/2, because tails is twice as fruitful as heads.unenlightened

    Alter the setup:

    The sailor had two choices, have sex with a homely fishmaiden of Innsmouth, with whom he could only bear 1 coupling, or visit the Siren of Fertility, whereupon he knows he will sire 10 sprats. Feeling queasy about such a paternal burden, he flips 2 coins: He will only visit the siren if both coins are heads.

    You are given a bet: Guess your mother correctly, and win your father's treasure, a giant sack of doubloons. Which would you choose?
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem
    I think betting is cheating, and is not actually correlated to the probabilities.

    Bet on heads or tails. If tails, you get to repeat the same bet again, on the same toss

    Of course, you would pick tails because you get a bonus if you win. But this doesn't make tails more likely.

    What if we let SB bet, but only once. If the probability of heads is really 1/3 on each awakening, then a bet on tails should still be profitable. But it is not.
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem
    since he gains no new relevant evidence if he wakes up during the experiment.Michael

    But in this setup, he did gain relevant evidence. Prior to the experiment there was a possibility he would not be woken, this has been eliminated.
  • Sleeping Beauty Problem


    But now I think we are both cheating. The experiment specifically is conducted once, not as many times as we please. That changes everything.

    To emphasize this answer, imagine head: they wake her the once, but tails, they do it 100 times before the experiment ends. The coin flip odds are still 50/50, but the odds that on a random waking she sees tails is overwhelming.noAxioms

    Presuming the experiment is conducted multiple times, yes it is overwhelming. But what if it is just conducted once?

    The article states this counterargument nicely. Consider this variation:

    A 100 sided dice is rolled. If it lands on 100, SB is awakened 1000 times. Otherwise, she is awakened once. On each awakening, is it more likely to be 100 than 1-99 inclusive??