Should we be worried, or should we just wait until a vaccination is developed so that we can irradicate it through a vaccination programme?
Or is this the beginning of a deadly pandemic? — Punshhh
Don't panic yet. There will be plenty of time for hysteria once people start dropping like flies, which hasn't happened so far.
Respiratory infections (almost always caused by one virus or another) are very difficult to control because they are so readily contagious. Alls it takes is one strategic uncovered sneeze on the bus, and presto, maybe 20 people are exposed before they can flee at the next stop. Or less dramatically, just breathing the same air for a while -- like on a plane, a bus, a small office, etc.
The mortality rate (= you're dead) for this virus is not astoundingly high -- maybe 1% or 2%, maybe a bit higher. That's not insignificant because it can mean hundreds of death per 100,000 cases. The mortality rate for the 1918 influenza epidemic was 20%; many millions of people died during that epidemic lasting around a year. Ebola and Marburg viruses, and some of the other newly emerged infections, have mortality rates over 50%. Untreated rabies has a 100% mortality rate.
So, while a pandemic of Covid-19 would not be a picnic, it wouldn't be the end of life as we know it, either. Of course, this virus has been active only since December -- far short of enough time for us to have any understanding of how it will behave in the future. The worst - case scenario would be that no effective vaccine is developed (which is unlikely) or that it will not have seasonality and be active throughout the year.
Most people are not going to be very sick at all. Older people (like... 60 and up) and people with weak immune systems of any age are likely to be the most common fatalities.
The dark side of all this is that no nation, however developed, is going to be ready for a bad epidemic. It's just not possible. For instance, if New York City had 30,000 serious covid-19 cases, it would not have enough hospital beds to handle a contagious infection. New York would have to do what China did -- put the sick people together in huge wards (not in hospital buildings) to provide care while not exposing every other sick person in the hospital to something which might well finish them off. The staff would have to dress for bio-hazard protection, which in itself makes work more difficult (like you get hot).
If there are many cases in a city, people will do well to self-quarantine--something more palatable to civil libertarians than forced quarantines. If you feel sick, go home and stay there. If you are very very sick, they can come get you in an ambulance. If you are not very very sick, try to cope on your own. If you are not sick and don't have to mix in public, then don't. Stay home. Fuck work. Capitalists will have to adjust to people not being able to maintain production.
This approach will work over the relative short run. People can't self-quarantine for weeks or months -- they'd starve, eventually. Might as well go out for groceries and take your chances.