Girkin's unit of mostly Russians has crossed the border and started the hostilities. — Jabberwock

Not just Girkin. Anyway, Surkov was reportedly one of the godfathers running covert Donbas operations.

I stopped reading the rest of your argument when you state that Ukraine is a 'democratic' country. No, it isn't. — javi2541997

There have been quality elections in Ukraine since 2014 — Nov 28, 2023

... whereas Russia has gone in the other direction, despite their wartime situation. (← more repetitions in the thread) Dismissing their efforts with a handwave, reeks of bias prejudice discrimination or something like that. But, maybe you're right, maybe they ought to look into legislative amendments on appointing military leaders.

, you're comparing that to Donbas...? Sure, there are some similarities, and then there are the differences. By the way, the Ukrainian separatists didn't get their way. Rather, by Kremlin decree, Donbas (and Crimea) swiftly swapped flags, UA → RU. (anyway, this stuff has come up a few times already, including whatever aspects/angles)

Israel — boethius

... is a mad mess and has been for a while.

, , I'd say "Poor move Kyiv"; seems like we concur?

(I don't think Zaluzhnyi ran for office, though, .)

, the Canada-Quebec and Ukraine-Donbas situations differ. Adding to 's comments, a difference that matters has come up a few times in the thread.

The Kremlin sent operatives into Donbas to organize propagandize stage insurge arm shoot for years (eventually culminating with the invasion). Standard playbook. Oddly enough, they employ extremists of the sort they claim to be after in the first place (2023Oct8).

If we suppose for a moment they hadn't done all that crap (including invade), then Kyiv would have to constitutionally recognize minorities as per EU requirements/standards, as part of their EU membership negotiations. And why wouldn't they? It's not like they're anti-Tatar for example.

But that's a bit late now. The Kremlin's ongoing :fire: efforts, have created animosity (2024Jan18, 2023Aug22) that will take a while to heal.

, I'm still not seeing how Moscow has been threatened with nuclear bombing (or invasion for that matter).
It seems more like they managed to come up with that by themselves (2023Dec31, Starovoyt), now apparently to the point of domestic school curriculum.
But, yes, recently there have been some military types (German, Polish, Nordic, Baltic) having aired concerns of them being attacked, however unlikely that seems (fearmongering of sorts).

:point: A question: why do Moldovans get nervous and jittery when there's talk of Putin? — Feb 5, 2024

Is Russia preparing kids for war? Moscow rolls out Soviet-era 'training' to teach children how to use weapons
^{— Srishti Singh Sisodia · WION · Nov 11, 2022}
Fundamentals of Security and Defense of the Motherland (en)
^{— To help the teacher · Nov 15, 2023}

This should bring back some Cold War memories, for some at least. It's worth noting that the only nuclear rattling lately has come from the Kremlin circle and North Korea, who appears to be partners. So, what's going on here? A "2nd cold war" path seems clear enough, though the rattlers haven't been particularly successful in provoking any such counter-rattling. Are those two attempting to reinvent the good old nuclear holocaust paranoia, to the point of domestic school curriculum...? Just your regular (warranted) updates to teaching kids? I don't know, except it doesn't seem random. Anyone have insights?

You state they "covered their bases" and answering that is a side track? Or then you could just answer directly but are deciding to side track? Or is my question a side track? — boethius

Let me stop you right there, and apologize for (now leading you onto) this ↑ side-track:

What bases? — boethius

irredentism and such has come up among others, promoted by the Kremlin circle as justification — jorndoe

(↑ see that? focus – "neutrality" – "what might we then have expected from the Kremlin" – "for an intact Ukraine" – please stick to the train of comments at hand)

When you say Ukrainian sovereignty shouldn't be controversial, well neither should Iraq's, Afghanistan's, Syria's, Lybia's, and so on. — boethius

Sure. Well, why did Imperial Japan lose out? (Nazi Germany?) I suppose we might consider when sovereignty is lowered by other concerns, though it could end up polluting the thread. This is where Putin-apologetics re-enter (apropos "like they covered their bases", e.g. irredentism).


Right, , anything unfavorable about Russia is a Western conspiracy. :D


Meanwhile in Georgia

President Grills Ivanishvili and GD in Final Address to Parliament, Offers to Mediate United Opposition Platform
^{— Civil Georgia · Jan 6, 2024}

More fingerprints.

Let me just note (again), NATO nuclear weapons in Ukraine was always and remains unlikely (≈ Oct 16, 2022). Russian nuclear weapons (and rattling) on the other hand... e.g. Belarus (Jun 17, 2023), right next door.

:point: A question: why do Moldovans get nervous and jittery when there's talk of Putin?

The part about Ukraine is simply not true though. Ukraine is one of the poorest nations in Europe and routinely rates among the worst for corruption and not particularly well on political freedom either. The most you could say about the difference between Ukraine and Russia is that the former has at least moved up, haltingly and with much backsliding, while the quality of Russian governance has mostly atrophied under Putin. — Count Timothy von Icarus

Yeah. There are various aspects to the situation. Ukraine freeing themselves from the dominating neighbor to the north + east isn't easy, to the point of war. 2023Jul22, 2024Jan2. They're trying (from bomb shelters or wherever) and has shown willingness to do so. Not an overnight thing though, especially with the Kremlin in the way.

What bases? — boethius

Hmm Shouldn't really need a side-track to (genuinely) try answering the inquiry. Anyway, irredentism and such has come up among others, promoted by the Kremlin circle as justification. But the Kremlin doesn't want Zelenskyy or his government in Kyiv despite having been elected, maybe it was different once. (Euromaidan...?)

The Kremlin has another weapon in its arsenal: Migration policy (archive)
^{— Caress Schenk · The Washington Post · Apr 11, 2022}
The War in Ukraine Is a Colonial War
^{— Timothy Snyder · The New Yorker · Apr 28, 2022}
Ukraine's Lightning Counteroffensive Has Russian Teachers Rethinking Plans To Work In Occupied Areas
^{— RFE/RL · Sep 17, 2022}
‘New Russia’ and the Legacies of Settler Colonialism in Southern Ukraine
^{— Olivia Irena Durand · Journal of Applied History · Dec 12, 2022}
Understanding Russia’s Actions in Ukraine as the Crime of Genocide
^{— Denys Azarov, Dmytro Koval, Gaiane Nuridzhanian, Volodymyr Venher · Journal of International Criminal Justice · Jun 13, 2023}
Russians actively change ethnic composition of occupied territories' population
^{— Iryna Balachuk · Ukrainska Pravda · Jan 4, 2024}
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2024
^{— Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Karolina Hird, Nicole Wolkov, George Barros, Frederick W Kagan · ISW · Jan 23, 2024}

If your question was what would Russia have done if a peace agreement was reached — boethius

Not "a peace agreement", but running with that peace proposal. ("something along those lines" → e.g. toss in a fresh Kharkiv'esque Pact or whatever)

I will let the time speak for itself and show how Zelensky acts afterward. Will he still be the angel we all wish to have as a friend? — javi2541997

No angels around.

Some posters seem to think Ukraine is variously a kindergarten or just another sh¡thole or whatever. :point: Either way, wouldn't it be :up: if Ukraine developed toward something comparable to, say, Estonia, Germany, Czechia, Spain?

Odd. Part of the wellness industry has spotted climate change.

Wellness influencers fueled pandemic misinformation. Now they have another big conspiracy in their sights
^{— Laura Paddison · CNN · Feb 4, 2024}

Meta, which owns Instagram, declined to comment. The company has policies to counter misinformation, including international teams of fact checkers which evaluate climate science content.

... and then censorship, free speech, suppression ... the usual. When such folk were chasing lizards and aliens in the desert, they might actually come across something interesting (by coincidence). :up: This seems a bit different though, no particular independent "Go look". Also exploitable by others.

Can't recall where I saw this treatment...

p) this sentence is false
is implicitly the same as
q) "this sentence is false" is true
and
r) this sentence
refers to the same by self-reference, so we have both
p) this sentence is false
and, via the above
s) this sentence is true
which is an ordinary contradiction, implying anything

In a way, implicity and self-reference allow unpacking a regular contradiction, which, if not much else, isn't as mystifying.

Some division. Some of the rhetoric seems familiar.

Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso withdraw from West Africa regional bloc ECOWAS as tensions deepen
^{— Chinedu Asadu · AP · Jan 28, 2024}

Taking a look at Moldova in the present context, there are plausible fingerprints of the Kremlin's grubby hands (modus operandi) across Moldova and Ukraine.
The Kremlin isn't that likely to go at NATO members (or non-expendable partners) the same way as Ukraine Moldova Georgia (at least not currently).
^{(since some posters are adverse to reports, I've just stuffed a bunch into an ignorable attachment; up to the reader to weed out/in whatever im/plausible)}

Attachment: moldova_russia.txt

To what end? (hence remains a pertinent question)
And why would anyone care anyway?
The Baltics have been supportive of Ukraine, and have their reasons, e.g. 2023Jul9, 2023Dec20, that might be applicable to Moldova just the same.

Reports evidence observations commentaries analyses opinions ...

• Moldova–Russia relations
• Moldova and the Russo-Ukrainian War
• 2023 Moldovan coup attempt allegations

, check things before you call them (Western) propaganda with a casual handwave.
(Since you make it personal, yep, I'm critical, though there's plenty of that already in this thread, I'll pick up some of the slack.)

Transparency International » Board of Directors (international)
Wikipedia » Corruption Perceptions Index » Assessments (critique)

Given the numbers above (36% is hardly admirable), I'm not convinced you checked or have any particular interest (other than dishing out "Propaganda!" when tickling your funny bone). Feel free to prove otherwise.

, that was a question, inviting responses (preferably evident/justified), it was even emphasized. :D Get your glasses, try again.

Corruption Perceptions Index 2023
(The Wikipedia article has a summary)
Somewhere around "the middle" you'll find Hungary and Moldova

Regarding EU support of Ukraine:

Viktor Orbán's interview with the French daily Le Point (in Hungarian)
^{— Orbán Viktor (interviewer Emmanuel Berretta) · Jan 30, 2024}

[...] Hungary is ready to participate in the solution of the 27, if they guarantee that we will decide every year whether we will continue to send this money or not. — Orbán

OK. But then things take a downturn...

[...] the European Union has moved more and more in an imperialist direction in recent years, especially after the withdrawal of the UK. It is a community of less and less sovereign states. More and more, regardless of what rights you have under the Contracts, what reasonable argument you give them, they try to force you to do something you don't want. More specifically: Brussels has been waging an ideological war against Hungary in recent years and is constantly trying to blackmail us.
[...]
I understand Ukrainians. I would like a huge amount guaranteed for as long as possible. I understand, but this is not a European interest. We have to behave differently in Europe. The Europeans also need this much money. In Europe, we are increasingly suffering from the poor performance of the economy. This money would be very useful for the European peoples, the French, the Germans, the Hungarians, the Poles...
[...]
At the time, I said clearly that we need Donald Trump in Europe. Because when Trump says "Make America Great Again" or "America First", it legitimizes us to "Make Europe Great Again" and "Europe First". Put Europe first, put France first, and put Hungary first. — Orbán

Russia says West understands ‘Ukraine project’ has begun to fail
^{— Burç Eruygur · Anadolu Ajansı · Jan 30, 2024}

A faint whiff of desperation or anger or something in Lapdog's distractions? Maybe things aren't going as well as others are led to believe? Anyway, who knows.

Russia lawmakers pass bill to confiscate assets of those who discredit army
^{— Al Jazeera · Jan 31, 2024}

Ouch. Say something un-Kremlin'y about the war → your house gone + jail? I imagine people in occupied Ukraine are feelin' it.

Rise and shine: Japanese moon probe back to work after sun reaches its solar panels (Mari Yamaguchi · AP · Jan 30, 2024)

Yaay :)

Oh look, another one :D

Romanian far-right leader lays claim on Ukrainian regions, Moldova
^{— Martin Fornusek · The Kyiv Independent · Jan 29, 2024}
Yasmina (Jan 28, 2024) of NAFO has unflattering words ...

, maybe Yasmina's word, "clown", is right. Anyway, so easy it is to lay claim to land.

Ukraine - Law 10288 (Amendments) (direct)
^{— EU's Venice Commission · Jan 22, 2024}
Ukrainian Parliament Amends Laws on National Minorities’ Rights
^{— Interfax-Ukraine · Kyiv Post · Dec 9, 2023}

The Kremlin sometimes take another approach to extend their authoritarian control (call it a variation of "neo-imperialism" or "neo-colonialism" or whatever), by setting up supposedly independent puppet regions, then accusing others of doing that (e.g. Medvedev, Starovoyt). Destabilization can be an action towards that, instability an excuse, immigration/deportation/etc a solidification. One advantage is deniability or distancing, though it doesn't always work well (e.g. Girkin). Nothing new I guess.

4. Russia has pressures to maintain a peace if Ukraine commits to neutrality and repudiates seeking NATO membership and cooperation. One such pressure is the diplomatic cost of breaking a promise, but there would be bother international and domestic pressures that would impose costs on Russia to reinvade. — boethius

Switzerland and Sweden have a tradition of neutrality, or at least had. Moldova has a constitutional neutrality clause, though sort of impaired by Transnistria. The Baltics have their own stories (2023Jul8).

Similar to what's come up before (2022Mar13, 2022Jul21, 2022Oct8, 2022Nov9), suppose that Ukraine had ... ▸ declared neutrality with respect to international military alliance memberships, formally on paper / constitutionally (2022Mar8, 2022Mar9, 2022Mar11); ▸ retained right to self-defense, e.g. from invaders (shouldn't be controversial), including foreign training and/or weaponry as the case may be; ▸ explicitly stated that others respect sovereignty, self-determination, freedom to seek own path (shouldn't be controversial); ▸ actively pursued EU membership, and perhaps sought other such cooperation ... Something along those lines.

The question is what might we then have expected from the Kremlin. Seems like they covered their bases, but what might have transpired then? — Sep 26, 2023

(↑ for an intact Ukraine)

With the Kremlin's swift sham referendums they kind of burned some bridges of their own, somewhat at least (if they care). There was a post-Soviet time when things were looking up, many wanted to cut military, create relationships with Russia(ns), trade, open offices in Moscow, what-have-you, but the emergence of Putinism gradually ended that, and now we're looking at a 2nd cold war.

Ukraine did want to be neutral. But as all of the East European countries starting from the Baltics, sooner or later they understood what Russia's plans would be... when it got it's act together. The Baltic states being tiny countries understood this from day one. Hence their objective to join NATO. — ssu

Yep.

For one, because of simple metrics like population and geographics — Tzeentch

Well, they've managed for a good while, almost surrounded by hostiles/unfriendlies in superior numbers on the ground. (Though not exactly all as efficiently as Entebbe 1976.) Looking back, I kind of get the impression that they built out a (modern) society in a desert, however discriminatory/thefty.

and secondly because Israel's treatment of the Palestinian people is giving its neighbors common cause against it. — Tzeentch

The fires have been going for a good while, not new, and those hostiles/unfriendlies have been and remain one reason for their zeal in the first place. But, yes, they're not helping any reconciliation. Third-party (neutral) intervention/involvement may be necessary, though seemingly rejected by both parties.

@schopenhauer1, are you making a case for ...



... ? :)

László Toroczkai: If Ukraine fails, we will claim Transcarpathia
^{— bt · Index · Jan 27, 2024}

Everyone, grab a piece, first come first serve! — László Toroczkai (paraphrased)

:D

Hence ...

Other Minds (SEP)
Solipsism and the Problem of Other Minds (IEP)
Solipsism (Wikipedia)
Solipsism (Uncyclopedia)

... because others' self-awarenesses are harder still to derive than the ground you walk on.

Anyway, maybe minds are parts of the world, not somehow apart therefrom. After all, mind can affect world, and world can affect mind, alike. Then self-knowledge is also knowledge of the world in part. The perceiver just doesn't have to become the perceived to perceive that.

Going by knowledge as justified true belief, one can know of things extra-self.

Another of Medvedev's rabble-rousing :fire: outbursts:

Why Ukraine is dangerous for its inhabitants

The existence of Ukraine is mortally dangerous for Ukrainians. And I don’t mean only the current state, Bandera’s political regime. I'm talking about any, absolutely any Ukraine.

Why?
The presence of an independent state on historical Russian territories will now be a constant reason for the resumption of hostilities. Late. No matter who is at the helm of the cancerous growth under the name of Ukraine, this will not add legitimacy to his rule and the legal viability of the “country” itself. And, therefore, the likelihood of a new fight will persist indefinitely. Almost always. Moreover, there is a 100% probability of a new conflict, no matter what security papers the West signs with the puppet Kyiv regime. Neither Ukraine’s association with the EU, nor even the entry of this artificial country into NATO will prevent it. This could happen in ten or fifty years.

That is why the existence of Ukraine is fatal for Ukrainians. They are practical people at the end of the day. No matter how they now wish the Russians to die. No matter how much they hate the Russian leadership. No matter how much they strive to join the mythical European Union and NATO. Choosing between eternal war and inevitable death and life, the vast majority of Ukrainians (well, perhaps with the exception of a minimal number of frostbitten nationalists) will ultimately choose life. They will understand that life in a large common state, which they do not like very much now, is better than death. Their deaths and the deaths of their loved ones. And the sooner Ukrainians realize this, the better. — Dmitry Medvedev · Jan 17, 2024

'A kind of trolling'. Why Zelenskyy needs decree on Ukrainian lands in Russia: Historian's view
^{— Danylo Kramarenko, Nataliia Direyeva · RBC · Jan 22, 2024}

:D There are certain...analogies to that decree signed by Zelenskyy; maybe that was part of Kyiv's thinking.

Ukraine-Russia war: Russian regions 'historically Ukrainian', Zelensky claims
^{— Tim Sigsworth · The Telegraph · Jan 22, 2024}

Today’s actions by Zelensky once again prove that our president is right about launching a special military operation. Ukraine is a puppet of forces that want to destroy Russia and take away its historical lands. — Roman Starovoyt

There is nothing to comment on because Ukrainians are Russians. — Dmitry Medvedev

Zelenskyy signs decree on Russian territories historically inhabited by Ukrainians
^{— Tetiana Lozovenko · Ukrainska Pravda · Jan 22, 2024}

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 22, 2024
^{— Riley Bailey, Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, Karolina Hird, George Barros, Frederick W Kagan · ISW · Jan 22, 2024}

Russia continues to weaponize its position on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to propagate several long-standing Russian information operations.

Russian officials and information space actors are attempting to further rhetorically justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by misrepresenting a decree that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed on January 22 concerning discrimination against ethnic Ukrainians in Russia. Zelensky’s decree does not establish any territorial demands upon Russia, as select Russian ultranationalists falsely claimed.

Russians and Ukrainians will live exactly like brothers and good neighbors — Sergey Lavrov

"It's the Kremlin's way or the highway." Some interviews/writings/speeches out of the Kremlin circle carry their authoritarian undercurrent. They seem to think (implicitly) that it's up to them to decide how "their subjects" (down to individuals) should live (perhaps up to government in general, according to them). With their self-entitlement, they extend that to the Ukrainians. If NATO-phobia led to the invasion, then what difference would grabbing Crimea + Donbas make?

:o Has that been confirmed? (cans)

EDIT

Questionable according to Ryan Mcbeth (Jan 23, 2024).
Not that Gaza is safe for children.

Unusual age distribution ...

Children make up nearly half of Gaza's population. Here's what it means for the war
^{— Linah Mohammad · NPR · Oct 19, 2023}

According to estimates for 2023, the number of Palestinians in Gaza aged 0 to 4 was 278,511. That year, more than half of Gaza's estimated 2.06 million inhabitants were below 20 years old. — Statista · Nov 21, 2023

, if it were to come to that (significant internal US instability/strife), then there'd be a wider impact as well. Authoritarian regimes would have a bit less to worry about (or to deter them), which, in turn, would come back to impact the US. So, strifers would invite this.

And Canada might build a border wall. :)

EDITED

Working? Better prepared now?

Virtual Hatred: How Russia Tried to Start a Race War in the United States
^{— William J Aceves · California Western School of Law · 2019}
Vladimir Putin’s plan to ‘tear the US apart’ during 2024 election exposed
^{— Charlie Bradley · Express · Dec 23, 2023}
Russia’s War on Woke
^{— Mikhail Zygar · Foreign Affairs · Jan 2, 2024}

Checking out on the highway, how many cars have just the driver, one person?
I'm guessing more than half, but things change all the time.
How many of the troubles can be put on the tragedy of the commons?

I still think Michelle Obama could be chosen at the convention, with Biden retiring. She would have my vote. — jgill

She comes through as "no-nonsense" personality-wize (if that means much). She's given no good indication of stepping up though, or what her programme would be, i.e. why to vote for her. I can see her as US president anyway.

, instead of posting a 33m:12s youtube by Campbell showing a talk by Bridgen, why not post whatever studies Bridgen was referring to? (There are better sources than either, in any case.)

Study and media summary

The Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Mortality: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-analysis
^{— James A Peters, Mohsen Farhadloo · American Journal of Preventive Medicine · Jun 14, 2023}

Montreal university study describes COVID-19 sanitary measures as 'generally effective'
^{— Laurie Trottier · CBC · Jan 21, 2024}

Meeting with veterans of the Great Patriotic War, residents of besieged Leningrad and representatives of public patriotic associations
^{— The Kremlin · Jan 18, 2023}

And here, on the Leningrad Front, representatives of many European countries participated in the siege of Leningrad and committed crimes.

Due to a certain tolerance and in order not to spoil relations, not to spoil any background of our relations with many countries, we have never spoken about this before. But this was not only in Leningrad, on the Leningrad front and during the blockade, it was everywhere. Just look at the Blue Division. Here, in Leningrad, on the Leningrad Front during the blockade, there were participants from all countries - from many, in any case.

But when you talk about the need to preserve historical memory, I have already said that I fully and completely support this. We will do this at the state level, we will do it persistently, including so that, as I have already said, nothing like this happens again.

Meanwhile, someone is deliberately oblivious to all these facts. As you may have heard, perhaps quite recently at the United Nations we proposed for voting a document condemning the glorification of Nazism. After all, 50 countries voted against it. Who could be against recognizing the glorification of Nazism as criminal? Well, what is it? This is not just some kind of historical or political amnesia. This is all being transferred here again, in our time. For what? In order to maintain such a common front based on the current political situation, put pressure on our country. So in this sense, unfortunately, little changes. This means that we must consistently defend historical truth and do what you suggest. This is what we will do. — Vladimir Putin

Putin suddenly claims that representatives of "many European countries" took part in the Siege of Leningrad
^{— Alona Mazurenko · Ukrainska Pravda · Jan 18, 2023}
(Also, the Road of Life, Finland Station. Oh, and Sisu. :wink:)

Poland Is ‘Next’ After Russia Wins Ukraine War, Putin Ally Says (Aleksey Zhuravlyov)
^{— Carley Welch · The Messenger · Jan 14, 2024}
Russia to allocate funds for search of Soviet, Imperial Russian property abroad
^{— TASS · Jan 18, 2024}
Putin Orders Hunt for Property of Russian Empire, Soviet Union
^{— Bloomberg · Jan 19, 2024}

A treasure hunt for imperial gold? :sparkle: Poland + Finland + Estonia + Latvia + Lithuania? :) Retaliation for frozen assets (and possible seizures)? :fire:

Anyway, the Baltics, Moldova, Poland, have been (and are) looking toward Moscow with some...discomfort, and looking westward with some consolation. Ukraine likewise.

, maybe old Joe had coffee :sparkle: the other day...? :)

Biden Accedes to Tougher Immigration Policy to Deflect Criticism, Secure Ukraine Aid (Tarini Parti, Michelle Hackman · WSJ · Jan 18, 2024)

I'm admittedly still not seeing it, Clown because Mexican border...? Maybe it's just me.

Thank you, Mr Surge the Borders President — jgill

I'm wondering though, would this be sufficient to vote Clown?
From my spot, nope, but I'm no Denverite.

Various people/groups have considered what might come to pass in case the Kremlin prevails, you can check the credentials of those below yourself. (What "prevails" means here is sort of contextual to their writings.) I've just summarized very briefly and incompletely. Much of this has come up prior in the thread. Apologies for the overlaps, some of their writings already do.

What if Russia wins? (Simon Kuper · Financial Times · Dec 21, 2023)

• reprisals, pro-Ukraine = anti-Kremlin, Ukrainian defense = terrorism, removals, oppression (some such already documented, non-hypothetical)
• whatever part of Ukraine that remains Ukrainian would remain in the Kremlin's crosshairs
• a quarter of all wheat exports would be Kremlin-controlled
• others are taking notes (China, North Korea, Venezuela, Azerbaijan, Russians (far-right'ers in particular)), can find encouragement rather than discouragement — also see The West’s Inaction Over Ukraine Risks Dangerous Conclusions in Moscow (Dara Massicot · Carnegie · Dec 18, 2023)
• NATO, the EU and Ukraine-friends seen as discredited across the board, suiting the Kremlin well

War Against Ukraine: What if Russia Wins? (Nico Lange, Carlo Masala · GLOBSEC · Nov 28, 2023)

• extremists fascists populists gain all around, division (and polarization) outside Russia (some such non-hypothetical)
• Ukraine unstable for the longer haul, Ukrainian defense = terrorism, Ukrainian animosity increasing, purges, oppression (some such already observed, non-hypothetical)
• instability → increased risk of wider warring
• the Kremlin gains from emboldened Russian nationalism and neo-imperialism
• "new security order in Europe" and elsewhere, others are taking notes
• also check the "Zeitenwende" speech (Olaf Scholz · Bundestag · Feb 27, 2022)

The High Price of Losing Ukraine (Frederick W Kagan, Kateryna Stepanenko, Mitchell Belcher, Noel Mikkelsen, Thomas Bergeron · ISW · Dec 14, 2023)

• the Kremlin will have gained confidence and likely more domestic support, plus extra land and resources, to further their war path

The High Price of Losing Ukraine: Part 2 — The Military Threat and Beyond (Nataliya Bugayova · ISW · Dec 22, 2023)

• others are taking notes, Ukraine's friends can be manipulated
• post-Putin Kremlin will likely be further authoritarian, nationalistic
• increasing steps to extinguish Ukrainian (and Belarusian) identity
• higher risks to Russia's neighbors
• environment where moral relativism further resurges and values further erode
• normalization of the Kremlin way (pulling wider regress)

What a Russian Victory Would Mean for Ukraine (Adrian Karatnycky · Foreign Policy · Dec 19, 2023)

• others are taking notes, revisionists emboldened to forcefully change borders / run campaigns
• European division; to appease the Kremlin or to rearm?
• reprisals, pro-Ukraine = anti-Kremlin, Ukrainian defense = terrorism, removals, oppression, systematic cultural cleansing, directed indoctrination
• higher domestic support, higher risks to others

Some of the writings are worst-case here and there. Some expectations are easily reasonable. Not much mentioned about the Russian regress explicitly, this would eventually encompass assimilated land (which, on the other hand, was mentioned).

As an aside, for an alternative comedic dramatization of the Stalin → Khrushchev transition, check The Death of Stalin (2017).

, it's doubtful that the Kremlin would start a nuclear world war. Casting long shadows on the other hand, well, it's what they do these days, and apparently intend to keep up.

The Suwałki Gap has come up a few times, e.g. 2024Jan14, 2024Jan17.

By the way, NATO has been (is) tiptoeing around Russia. There aren't many that wants to go to war, it's just that it's already happening with ongoing destruction and killing.

Fuelling conspiracy theories :D

Putin says past U.S. elections were rigged
^{— Maxim Rodionov, Mark Trevelyan, Kevin Liffey · Reuters · Jan 16, 2024}

In the United States, previous elections were falsified through postal voting ... they bought ballots for $10, filled them out, and threw them into mailboxes without any supervision from observers, and that's it.

Pukin has Trump's back. Well, maybe not exactly.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 10, 2024 (ISW Press)

Hmm Not optimistic ...

In this thread, I will explain why we are much closer to war with RU than most people realize and why our time window for rearmament is shorter than many believe. In my opinion, we have at best 2-3 years to re-establish deterrence vis-à-vis RU. [...] (— Fabian Hoffmann · Jan 14, 2024)

Germany preparing for Russia to start World War 3, leaked war plans reveal (— Chris Nesi · New York Post (and Bild) · Jan 15, 2024)


, I don't think you quite caught my drift with those couple comments. (Maybe try not to zoom in on individual verbiage while oddly forgetting the rest?)

Might be hard for you to acknowledge, but there's more to justification rationale motivation (hence cumulative explanation) than Machiavellian opportunism and glory and heroics. :D I guess thinking so is kind of telling. Impoverished. Except, makes better headlines. Worry not, yo' pal Putin stands up against unchecked imperialist expansionism of democracy. :up: "It's nefarious!"

Russia is building back its war machine. ^{(and other things by the way -me)} — boethius

Just imagine the horrors of peace. — boethius

:D

Any difference in response to the invasion (e.g. China, North and South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Hungary, the US, the UK, France, Poland, Romania, Finland, Sweden, the Baltics, ...) might just suggest (non)antagonism, (not) standing up, (non)apathy, or whatever else.

^{(fyi, embedded links can give refs/context, can help memory too :wink:)}

The EU is the best we can make — ssu

Maybe if there's a common, increasing clear and present danger...? At least some parts of Europe (like Scandinavia / the Nordics, the Baltics) typically tend to cooperate reasonably well. Not that this by itself will do, though.

Though, it is important to stress that even though I believe we should have a credible deterrent, we should not combine an arms build-up with antagonism towards Russia. A deterrent should have as its purpose stable relations between east and west. — Tzeentch

In the real world, there's a bit more to it

The Kremlin's authoritarianism regress oppression opacity irredentism posturing polemic bombing is indeed threatening, and anyone valuing democracy transparency freedom can be expected to respond — Jan 1, 2024

There should be antagonism towards that. There was towards the Third Reich. Was and is towards apartheid. And this. ... What would you think not standing up does? (Would that be cowardice, complicity, assent, something else?)

I think that will wake up finally Europeans put effort in their own defense industry. — ssu

Yeah, someone will get scrambling. I recall Obama (and others) suggesting as much. Plus, European countries will have to cooperate in some ways. The Gremlin has already more or less brought Russia into a war economy + path.

These folk comprise a fair percentage of Clown'ers...

45% of Americans Say U.S. Should Be a ‘Christian Nation’
^{— Gregory A Smith, Michael Rotolo, Patricia Tevington · Pew Research Center · Oct 27, 2022}

But they hold differing opinions about what that phrase means, and two-thirds of U.S. adults say churches should keep out of politics

A Christian Nation? Understanding the Threat of Christian Nationalism to American Democracy and Culture
^{— Melissa Deckman et al · PRRI / Brookings · Feb 8, 2023}

The rising influence of Christian nationalism in some segments of American politics poses a major threat to the health of our democracy. Increasingly, the major battle lines of the culture war are being drawn between a right animated by a Christian nationalist worldview and Americans who embrace the country’s growing racial and religious diversity.

Christ, Country, and Conspiracies? Christian Nationalism, Biblical Literalism, and Belief in Conspiracy Theories
^{— Brooklyn Walker, Abigail Vegter · Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion · May 8, 2023}

Like many, we were deeply affected by the sharp divisions, fueled by conspiracy theories, that arose around COVID-19 and the 2020 presidential election.
We noted that conspiracy theories related to both COVID-19 and the Big Lie gained traction in religious communities that tended towards biblical literalism and Christian nationalism, leading us to wonder if either of these two aspects of American religion (biblical literalism and Christian nationalism) were related to a broader tendency for Americans to think in conspiratorial ways.
Christian nationalism links being Christian to being American. In the view of many Christian nationalists, this linkage is threatened by secularization and other social changes. Biblical literalism is the belief that each word in the Bible should be accepted as God’s word spoken directly to readers, not to be filtered through religious elites.
Using survey data, we find that the sense of a threatened nation inherent in Christian nationalism and the anti-elite tendencies in biblical literalism amplify conspiracy thinking, and that the two have especially strong effects when they occur together. We conclude that Christian nationalist and biblical literalist support of COVID-19 and the 2020 election conspiracy theories are not a one-off; Christian nationalists and biblical literalists are likely to buy into future conspiracy theories, too.
We were surprised at the effect sizes we observed. When occurring together, biblical literalism and Christian nationalism had a much stronger effect than well-established predictors of conspiracy thinking, like education. It’s also important not to lump all religious activity together — religious service attendance was consistently associated with less conspiracy thinking.
We measured conspiracy thinking by respondents’ agreement with eight different conspiracy theories. Social scientists have developed other measures of conspiracy thinking that don’t rely on respondents’ knowledge of specific conspiracy theories. Replicating our models with one of these more general measures would certainly strengthen the findings.
Also, we can’t stop with diagnosing the problem — we need to think deeply about how Christian nationalists and biblical literalists might become less susceptible to conspiracy thinking. — Brooklyn Walker · Jun 11, 2023

(emphases mine)

Those figures seem like more than an insignificant fringe (to me). Lowering the numbers to, say, 15-20% of (possibly incorrigible) US voters still give a fair bloc of Clown supporters. Not sure what to expect if the Clown doesn't make it to the ballots, I guess it depends on who does?