For those of you too lazy for close reading:
First question for any paper: what is it trying to do?
(1) The paper is trying to highlight that current climate science/sustainability management treats severe global socioeconomic impacts as an edge case (A), that management strategies thus advocated are short term bodges
given the plausibility of severe global socioeconomic impacts of climate change within our lifetime (B), and because of (A) and (B) it is now time to consider
alternative strategies which adjust or adapt to the plausible reality of such changes (C).
Second question for any paper: how does it try to achieve this?
(2) It surveys contemporary climate science to assess the
plausibility referenced in (1), finding that such large changes are consistent with its reviewed literature, evincing (A). Moreover, it does a literature search for climatology or sustainability management looking for people analysing adjustment or adaptation strategies
given severe global socioeconomic impacts from climate change within our lifetime. It doesn't find much literature explicitly on it, and doesn't find much literature which treats these scenarios as plausible, evincing (B). Given (A) and (B), investigating (C) seems sensible. So he proceeds to investigate (C).
Investigating (C), he takes the approach of trying to isolate
why there are holes in the scientific literature corresponding to (A) and (B) - which has psychological and institutional components, he summarises:
Have professionals in the sustainability field discussed the possibility that it is too late to avert an environmental catastrophe and the implications for their work? A quick literature review revealed that my fellow professionals have not been publishing work that explores, or starts from, that perspective. That led to a third question, on why sustainability professionals are not exploring this fundamentally important issue to our whole field as well as our personal lives. To explore that, I drew on psychological analyses, conversations with colleagues, reviews of debates amongst environmentalists in social media and selfreflection on my own reticence. Concluding that there is a need to promote discussion about the implications of a social collapse triggered by an environmental catastrophe...
he then begins to analyse what he sees as relevant information for adjustment or adaptation:
I asked my fourth question on what are the ways that people are talking about collapse on social media. I identified a variety of conceptualisations and from that asked myself what could provide a map for people to navigate this extremely difficult issue. For that, I drew on a range of reading and experiences over my 25 years in the sustainability field to outline an agenda for what I have termed “deep adaptation” to climate change.
So first thing,
the article is not predicting an extinction event, the argument does not require strong commitment to the reality of an imminent extinction event - though that is
consistent with the broad aims of the paper - it predicts socio-economic upheaval on a large scale. As it puts it in the introduction:
Instead, this article may contribute to future work on sustainable management and policy as much by subtraction as by addition. By that I mean the implication is for you to take a time to step back, to consider "what if" the analysis in these pages is true, to allow yourself to grieve, and to overcome enough of the typical fears we all have, to find meaning in new ways of being and acting.. That may be in the fields of academia or management - or could be in some other field that this realisation leads you to.
If the author thought his research strongly supported an
extinction event, I doubt he would put this emphasis on
adjustment to massive socioeconomic upheaval. The paper is even called 'Deep Adaptation' for Christ's sake, and the title of the section he reviews the climatological literature in is 'Apocalypse
Uncertain'. He does however make an effort to portray an extinction event as emotionally relevant:
It is a truism that we do not know what the future will be. But we can see
trends. We do not know if the power of human ingenuity will help sufficiently to change the environmental trajectory we are on. Unfortunately, the recent years of innovation, investment and patenting indicate how human ingenuity has increasingly been channelled into consumerism and financial engineering. We might pray for time. But the evidence before us suggests that we are set for disruptive and uncontrollable levels of climate change, bringing starvation, destruction, migration, disease and war.
We do not know for certain how disruptive the impacts of climate change will be or where will be most affected, especially as economic and social systems will respond in complex ways. But the evidence is mounting that the impacts will be catastrophic to our livelihoods and the societies that we live within. Our norms of behaviour, that we call our “civilisation,” may also degrade. When we contemplate this possibility, it can seem abstract. The words I ended the previous paragraph with may seem, subconsciously at least, to be describing a situation to feel sorry about as we witness scenes on TV or online. But when I say starvation, destruction, migration, disease and war, I mean in your own life. With the power down, soon you wouldn’t have water coming out of your tap. You will depend on your neighbours for food and some warmth. You will become malnourished. You won’t know whether to stay or go. You will fear being violently killed before starving to death.
These descriptions may seem overly dramatic. Some readers might consider them an unacademic form of writing. Which would be an interesting comment on why we even write at all. I chose the words above as an attempt to cut through the sense that this topic is purely theoretical.
I suspect that
good responses to the article would deal with its 'theory of adaptation' and possible socio-economic organisational strategies that might work irrespective of the doomy-gloomy plausibilities.
Oh, and just for
@frank, firstly:
The World Bank reported in 2018 that countries needed to prepare for over 100 million internally displaced people due to the effects of climate change (Rigaud et al, 2018), in addition to millions of international refugees.
if the World Bank, that well known cabal of green anarchist zero-growth environmental activists, is informing us of the need to prepare for Bad Times, we (by that I mean our betters) should probably take it seriously. If that doesn't suffice there are two slightly methodological sections called 'Our Non-Linear World' and 'Looking Ahead' which cover why the paper takes a more qualitative/integrative approach over the use of quantitative models.
The observed phenomena, of actual temperatures and sea levels, are greater than what the climate models over the past decades were predicting for our current time. They are consistent with non-linear changes in our environment that then trigger uncontrollable impacts on human habitat and agriculture, with subsequent complex impacts on social, economic and political systems. I will return to the implications of these trends after listing some more of the impacts that are already being reported as occurring today....
The impacts I just summarised are already upon us and even without increasing their severity they will nevertheless increase their impacts on our ecosystems, soils, seas and our societies over time. It is difficult to predict future impacts. But it is more difficult not to predict them. Because the reported impacts today are at the very worst end of predictions being made in the early 1990s - back when I first studied climate change and modelbased climate predictions as an undergraduate at Cambridge University.
I'm sure if you actually went through a proper
error-propagation over all the combined climate data and tried to estimate the societal effects, your resultant models would have crazy high future error - and they should, because the future of nonlinear complex systems is really hard to pin down in numbers -, but if you change your frame of questioning a bit; why should the need for such error propagation and an integrated quantitative model of everything the paper touches on stop us from
trying to plan to adjust or adapt to the horrible possible circumstances consistent with those models? They shouldn't... that's the real point of the paper.
That is the position from which its interesting questions are tackled. It looks at various psychological factors in depth, and some institutional ones. It's only from that position does its title and intended contribution to discourse actually makes sense.
Given the climate science we discussed earlier, some people may think this (current) action is too little too late. Yet, if such action reduces some harm temporarily, that will help people, just like you and me, and therefore such action should not be disregarded. Nevertheless, we can look more critically at how people and organisations are framing the situation and the limitations that such a framing may impose. The initiatives are typically described as promoting “resilience”, rather than sustainability. Some definitions of resilience within the environmental sector are surprisingly upbeat. For instance, the Stockholm Resilience Centre (2015) explains that “resilience is the capacity of a system, be it an individual, a forest, a city or an economy, to deal with change and continue to develop. It is about how humans and nature can use shocks and disturbances like a financial crisis or climate change to spur renewal and innovative thinking.” In offering that definition, they are drawing on concepts in biology, where ecosystems are observed to overcome disturbances and increase their complexity (Brand and Jax, 2007).
So please, if you want to put this research in bin with the Mayan Apocalypse and Millenium Bug, do so, but politely leave it out of the thread (personal opinion, not moderator opinion).