your righteous European sneering at American hypocrisy, is able to overlook their own and their own government's and nation's hypocrisy. What! Holland has hypocrites? No!

We great powers also are pretty much alike. Whether it was the British in their Empire, the French, Belgians, Russians, Germans or Americans, we generally exercise power similarly. We have the wherewithal to off-shore our requirements for a temporary torture chamber; we can pull off an invasion of Ukraine, Iraq, or Afghanistan if it suits their current needs. Taiwan, beware. The Netherlands can not. — Bitter Crank

This was not always the case. The Netherlands had an oversea empire in South Africa and Indonesia. They invented the apartheid system to rule it, primarily to avoid inter-racial sex and marriage. Their very long war against the independent-minded Acehnese became a war of extermination. Dutch troops wiped out entire villages and murdered civilians by the thousands. That's how they 'won'.

I am afraid Finland is not the model.

They applied pressure on all those dead civilians in Busha alright.

a criticism of grammar — boethius

Not my beef at all. I was just trying to understand your post better. My apologies about that.

This is certainly good news. Which port will they use to export it? — FreeEmotion

Odessa, when it's all over.

"I went to the shop yesterday, right. So, I'm in the shop, I pickup this bottle. I drop it and it explodes on the ground. I was so embarrassed." — boethius

What follows has the same meaning: "I went to the shop yesterday, right. So, I was in the shop, I picked up this bottle. I dropped it and it exploded on the ground. I was so embarrassed.

So you meant "was". Okay.

Kiev is arguably under siege. Few sieges in history are "perfect" — boethius

You mean ***was*** under siege? Ukrainian troops have retaken the entire Kyiv oblast.

Spring sowing forecast

The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture has given its forecasts for the sowing of crops that farmers will be able to carry out this spring: a total of about 13.4 million hectares could be sown, including cereals, maize, beet and sunflower, which is 3.5 million fewer than in 2021. Ukraine, known for its highly fertile black soils, was the world's fourth largest exporter of corn and wheat before the war.

It was written last year. I didn't bother reading it.

Putin’s preferred course of action, which focuses on undermining Zelensky and the current Ukrainian political environment in advance of Ukrainian parliamentary and presidential elections in 2023 and 2024 — FreeEmotion

Zelensky is now seen as a hero the world over and quite probably in Ukraine as well. Good job Vlad!

What you cite are not predictions. — boethius

You predicted the Russians would encircle and besiege Kyiv. They tried but couldn't. Now they are fleeing. Ha ha ha.

Now you are lying some more.

A liar who complains about propaganda. That's rich.

Because you wanted to score a cheap point on a message board?

"Which side to chose if any" means that one can chose no side. And of course you know that, and deleted it from the quote on purpose, to make it look like I was contradicting myself . Which I didn't.

You are a liar.

No, I just proved that you willingly distorted a quote of mine, and thus that you are a liar.

I know very well what @boethius meant, thank you.

The choice for other people, such as Europeans, Americans, Aseans, Africans or Oceanians, as organized politically through states, is about which side to chose, if any. — Olivier5

Next time, quote the whole sentence.

Okay, it can remain an established fact only for me, no problem.

I use the word surround rather than encircle, and use the word "pressure" rather than siege for a reason. — boethius

Why completing the siege of Kiev will change things considerably is that Putin is not insisting on taking the city, and if Russian lines (once setup around the city) cannot be practically broken from the outside, pressure will be pretty high to accept Russia's conditions of surrender. — boethius

Are you denying those censorship policies exist? If not, then on what platform do you expect experts contradicting the mainstream narrative to publish? — Isaac

Not a single Russian POW, soldier, officer or official ever said otherwise at the time, ie the onset of the war. And dozens have reported the delusion was widespread...

And yet he said it...

Mainly on this occasion it's because there simply isn't any unbiased access to sufficient expert analysis of Russian intentions. Assuming you're continuing your analysis of my approach, you'll recall I specified...

check they have no glaringly obvious conflict of interest
— Isaac — Isaac

What conflict of interest do Russian soldiers have, when they call their family and say in essence: "Our officers told us it would be a matter of a few days, but we are in this hell for X weeks now"?

Any information which might be considered pro-Russian has been censored, all social media sites are enforcing active bans, — Isaac

This a rather paranoid picture you got there. How come the mage @boethius can still post on TPF then?

I use the word surround rather than encircle — boethius

The other reason there's a pause is that Kiev has been nearly encircled, which means the affect of this will be tested diplomatically and also strategy rethought considering this strategic objective being achieved (consolidate, move forces around, decide and plan the next military operations). For example, Russia may decide Kiev is encircled "enough" and so dig in where they are now to focus on other objectives, or decide to storm the capital, or decide to fully encircle the capital. — boethius

Once Kiev is encircled the military, social and political dynamic will completely change.

Russians are going slowly by surely around Kiev, I would guess, precisely because that's where you may get a surprise counter offensive and your forces routed if you're not careful (as you say, no easy way to skedaddle if you have a 30km convoy on the highway, and a tactical retreat to regroup would be an embarrassment anyways). — boethius

They failed to surround Kyiv and could only shell its suburbs. They were stopped in their progression southward of Kyiv, and the Ukrainian leadership didn't flinch under pressure.

It is evidently because of this failure that they are now retreating from the area. They have lost hope to be able to achieve anything useful there.

Now they are going to try and hold on to the land bridge to Crimea against Ukrainian forces moving East and South. Let see how that goes.

And these criteria do not apply to "the Russians believed it would be a short and easy operation" because?

Feel free to quote what I actually say if you want to discuss what I actually say. — boethius

They've sent a 40 km armor column to simply surround Kiev, creating the required pressure on leadership to sign the deal they want, who will say they Ukrainians fought with honour, blah blah blah, but the bloodshed must end and the page must be turned ... sad, sad, sad ... end of speech — boethius

These predictions were completely obvious — boethius

What predictions did you even make that turned true? That the Russian forces would easily surround Kyiv?

How is predicting, 4 weeks ago, exactly what the Russians now do, bullshit? — boethius

LOL. The mage Boethius is with us.

Not totally certain what it means yet. In practice, how would you go about establishing the fact that the Russians thought it would be a short and easy 'operation'?

if Ukrainians deciding to continue to fight "for their rights" rather than accept the minimal peace terms offered weeks ago (no-NATO, Dombas independence, recognition of Crimea), simply resulted in immense suffering for Ukrainians, — boethius

That's the shortsighted view of a slave.

Fighting back can be worthwhile on the long term, just to make sure your aggressor get the lesson and never ever tries again to attack you.

what does that say about our respect for Ukrainian rights? — boethius

It says they have a right to defend themselves and we have the right to help them anyway we can.

'no-one is that stupid'. — FreeEmotion

You'd be surprised.

You got to give it to the Ukrainians : they are no-nonsense, business-like, pragmatic folks, and not so easy to impress. Here is the mayor of Melitopol berating his kidnappers, and his beef is essentially that they failed to prepared properly for the meeting....



Ukraine mayor says Russian soldiers who kidnapped him knew nothing about his country
March 31, 20224:42 PM ET
Eleanor Beardsley, NPR

PARIS — The 33-year-old mayor of the Ukrainian town of Melitopol was kidnapped by Russian forces in early March and held for five days. Now Ivan Fedorov is in France to bear witness to his town's occupation by the Russians, and he says the soldiers who interrogated him knew nothing about the town or Ukraine.

Fedorov appeared on French television channel BFM TV to describe what his town has been living through. The boyish-looking mayor said his town in the southern, Zaporizhzhia region woke up to war on Feb. 24, when missiles struck a military airport just a few hundred yards from some apartment buildings.

He said Russian forces are becoming increasingly aggressive because their plans for a lightning war didn't work out and his town's resistance has made them angry.

"They saw that the citizens were not welcoming them. To the contrary, people have been openly opposing the aggressor," Fedorov said.

"Citizens have been coming out — thousands at a time — in plazas and streets despite armed soldiers, and yelling, 'Leave our town!' I am amazed by their courage," he said.

On March 11 Russian forces put a black bag over Fedorov's head and took him away From Melitopol's crisis center, where he was working. The scene was caught on surveillance cameras.

Fedorov says he was held in a prison cell without his phone and unable to contact his parents. He told BFM interviewer Bruce Toussaint that he could hear people screaming as they were tortured in other cells.

Fedorov says he was interrogated by five Russian soldiers who were completely unprepared and knew nothing about Melitopol or Ukraine.

"They said they wanted to liberate the town from the Nazis and where were they, and I told them in my 30 years in this town I've never seen a single Nazi," Fedorov said.

He said that after that the soldiers told him they wanted to defend the Russian language.

"I told them 95% of us speak Russian already and nobody's stopping us, so there's no problem," Fedorov said.

After that, they told Fedorov they had heard that veterans of World War II were beaten during the last commemoration day.

"I told them I know these men personally, because there aren't many of them left, and they're treated as heroes," he said.

The mayor says he believes he was only released because his kidnapping was caught on camera and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for his liberation.

Fedorov said 29 other elected officials are still being held by Russian forces.

"We came to France and to the EU to tell people what Ukrainians are living through," Fedorov said. "And to counter this Russian propaganda, which is very strong."

So what were you trying to say?

Try to answer the question, if you can.

Well, you did not mention the necessity for a body of knowledge in your definition of an established fact. So I guess you would need to add that somewhere, without going into a tautology like : an established fact is part of a body of established knowledge.

Beside, there is a body of knowledge about beauty.

Your definition isn't working then, it is too close to that of a beauty contest.

The day all countries respect sovereignty, it will be a great day. As long as they don't, complaining about it is just hypocrisy. — Benkei

If your country was invaded by Germany or France, would you think that complaining about it is hypocrisy?

If a majority of your 'epistemic peers' agree that Merkel is the sexiest woman alive, by your definition then it is an established fact.

One which the overwhelming majority of my epistemic peers agree on. — Isaac

You mean, like in a beauty contest?