I think it overlooks the fact that the US helped provoke this war, and that this is also a great opportunity to weaken an enemy by proxy — all under the cover of merely helping the underdogs who are being attacked by a madman. — Xtrix
I’m no fan of the US. I’ve avoided even travelling there for 25 years. But the US level of provocation was tiny compared to the level of Russian escalation.
Do you think the Obama and the Trump years somehow left Putin no choice? Or that Biden arrived and suddenly Putin saw a leader of cunning and flair? In poker terms, Putin had to go all in on whatever cards were in his hand?
Sure, Western media is going to frame events in the standard Hollywood tropes. The US has its own domestic audience to placate. And it has even had weak presidents like Bush jnr who seemed to believe his own “fighting for a free world” script.
But in this conflict, you can’t claim the US engineered events. And you can’t blame it for taking advantage if a cheap opportunity now presents itself.
Sure Ukrainians will suffer to restore their sovereignty. But that’s the game and how it works.
You might wish that humanity was somehow different from what it is. The first step would be to start by accepting it as it is with an accurate assessment.
The US doesn’t act benevolently at this scale. Russia and their ally, China, have been defying the international order, of which the US is in charge, and this is threatening to US hegemony. — Xtrix
I side with analysts like Peter Zeihan who stress that the US has always tended towards isolationism because of its geography. It just needs to secure Canada and Mexico as part of its North American hegemony and life is sweet. Anything more is gravy.
Trump was an incompetent and yet even under him the US made its major steps in this direction, weakening Nato commitments, signing targeted trade deals with Canada and Mexico, then adding in Japan, Taiwan and Korea as a sufficient bulwark against China. Russia was already fading from importance. The Gulf likewise was captive to the petrodollar. It owns a lion’s share of the US debt, and so had to suffer the Fed money printing the US out of its every economic hiccup, while also watching the US again become a hydrocarbon exporter through fracking technology.
So your geopolitical analysis builds in outdated neocon presumptions about the US’s self interests. Although that doesn’t mean that the GOP and even Hawkish democrats have necessarily caught up with that seismic swing back to a withdrawal from the wider world.
Yes, the US will defend its hegemony. It’s people believe that to be their god-given right. Every Hollywood movie is designed to reinforce the message in a nauseatingly crass fashion.
But the nature of that hegemony has changed. It doesn’t need to be the world’s policeman making the globe a safer and fairer place for even its smallest and weakest. Given climate change and technology advance, it is better off becoming the isolationist regime that always made the most self-interested geopolitical sense.
From the US view, Russia was already on death row. Let Europe and Asia suck its last drop of oil and gas.
China is also about to fall off its demographic cliff. Let it try to pivot to an economics of domestic consumption as the US pulls all its manufacturing back to cheap and reliable Mexico.
Of course it will take another 10 years for the whole US system to itself reorientate to this new reality. Trump couldn’t articulate the change. Biden only becomes convincing when he recycles the lines of his yesteryear training. This new logic of disengagement only perhaps becomes visible in events like the careless abruptness of his casting aside Afghanistan as an asset.
But anyway, judge events in Ukraine against a backdrop that has itself changed. A neocon analysis is so 1990s - even if it is true that large chunks of US institutional thinking might be still stuck in that time warp.
None of this is evident from the narrative you provide, however accurate it may otherwise be. — Xtrix
Hope I have shown that my narrative is based on the world as it is, even if that is also a world in transition.