I guess we could all be subsistence farmers. — T Clark
I would say "all" is an over-estimate. And here is where we would need to contrast the tech green promises vs the harsh ecological realities.
A few years ago, the agricultural idea that was believed to scale was "vertical farming". Converting city warehousing into racks of food growing under efficient LED lights and sensor-based watering and fertilising. A hyperlocal solution for urban communities.
But then reality bit. The staff to run these grow houses had to be paid double your immigrant farm worker. Disease ran rife as it doesn't respect the sterile rules of an artificial environment that lacks natural biodiversity.
Meanwhile other more ecologically-savvy agricultural practices – permaculture and regenerative farming – haven't scaled as they too directly challenge the Big Business status quo. But as things crash, they represent the knowledge that would allow the fortunate survivors to begin over from a more sophisticated level. More mouths could be fed in a more sustainable way.
In the 1970s, we were told that over-population would destroy the world. Now we're told that one of the biggest problems will be not enough workers. — T Clark
Both things can be true. All the young might be in Africa. But all starving. And all the old might be in clapped out Europe and Asia, and also starving.
This seems odd to me, given how much of the world sees the US as an unwelcome influence. Do we still think that US lead globalization is the solution we're looking for, or even a good thing in and of itself? Is globalization the scalable solution? I guess in some sense it has to be. One-world government? Continuing the de-Balkanization of the past 150 years. 500 years. 2,500 years. — T Clark
This is the issue. What ought the goal be? The Enlightenment seemed so right in humanistic principle, but became a victim of its own success. It gained the monopoly position in a world that had been socially diverse. An ethical monoculture was successfully produced with the US taking over from the UK as its self-interested standard bearer.
The 1992 Kyoto Protocol marked some kind of high point on this humanist project, and then that got overtaken by neo-liberal exhuberance – the financialisation of everything. The house was wrecked by the teenagers throwing a block party. The GFC saw Big Money bailed out and the resulting debts serviced by poor. Folk had a look around at where things were at and could predict a coming long stagnation and deglobalisation.
And we're going to run out of fossil fuels while we keep on finding and developing more. — T Clark
And then this. The US choose to continue growth at all costs. It had only propped up world trade and Middle East oil deliveries to get the world out of its cycles of European and Asian wars. US was its own well-resourced and well-populated continental market. It did not need world trade itself. It is uniquely blessed in its geostrategic position.
So if globalisation was collapsing, let it. The US began its post-GFC move towards a retreat behind its own walls. Funny money could fund the shale fracking and oil sands revolutions – so long at the environmental consequences could be kept out of the economic calculus. The US caught everyone out by becoming oil self-sufficient again and so really having no need to protect the world's shipping lanes anymore.
Shift the factories back from China and again a win-win for the US. Domestic jobs bonanza and China left to disappear down its own plughole.
A really big game is being played by the US that no-one ever seems to talk about openly. Under Trump, Biden and whoever is allowed to follow them. The idea is that is scaling is it is time to bunker down as a nation. Canada comes along for its resources, Mexico for its cheap labour. Japan, Taiwan and Korea get to pay to stay in the club. The UK and Australia are useful to a point.
Elon Musk and a relatively few entrepreneurs have changed everything. They took a bet on finding a way to make good environmental sense also make good economic sense. — T Clark
Please don't fall for this horseshit. The Tesla was the final nail in the coffin for any Green hope.
Right at the point where tech seemed to be delivering some kind of liveable future – electric bicycles and rideshare apps – we get Musk and his bloated dreams of how the future ought be. More cars. But now even faster on the acceleration and more toxic in their lithium mining and full lifecycle economics.
Doesn't apokrisis's scaling require central planning? — T Clark
No. Scaling is premised on the opposite. If an idea is "so good" then it will grow organically. It will self-organise its world.
But central planning does have to become some sort of guiding function that emerges as part of the deal.
The evolution of a body requires a devolution of its functions into a set of organs. A department of transport, of sanitation, of energy, of decision making. As things scale, they need to get hierarchically complex.
Planning is generally a good idea in life. And a good idea is what you want your society to be implementing over all its scales. The selling point of liberal democracy was that planning was going to one of those activities taking place over all levels – just as the nervous system might have a brain, but also reaches into every corner to allow all parts to contribute to "the plan". Even the gut turns out to be majorly connected to the brain in two-way relation.