Again what is revealed is that a) NATO isn’t a rubber stamp for US policy, which again and again has disappointed Washington and b) a lot has happened since 2010.

After all Sweden is the other example of how NATO is an international defence pact and not simply the extension (rubber stamp) of US policy. If it’s hard for Sweden, it surely is for Ukraine.

Besides, in the next NATO summit we can observe if Sweden finally gets in and Ukraine gets the path to NATO. (When there is kind of cessation of hostilities)

Actually Putin’s weakness can change things.

Gender differences are trivial compared to the commonalities between men and women — Judaka

A good question then would be: What is left out when we dismiss both feminine and masculine traits of a human?

I think far too many human characters are defined as either masculine or feminine. Things like compassion, logical reasoning, basic feelings aren’t masculine or feminine.

According to Biden, Putin is losing in Iraq.

Clearly, there was a lack of will here, if not outright collusion with the mutineers. — SophistiCat

Surovikin was with Prigozhin in Syria and the two worked well together. Hence Surovikin is in jail. What is very likely true is that Prigozhin had at least people that understood him, which made him do his ”march” in the first place.

Then we shouldn’t forget that literally the vast majority of Russian army’s ground forces are engaged in Ukraine. For example, there are very few trioops on our border with Russia.

Putin’s purges are a natural outcome of the events. Needless to say how detrimental this whole episode is for the Russian military leadership, who should work as a team.

What is good for Ukrainians is that good generals are now out of the game and one of the most effective formations (Wagner) combat capability is now questionable.

Particularly puzzling is how it happened that Wagner was allowed to cross the border and capture a million+ city hosting Southern Military District headquarters — SophistiCat

Why would there be troops defending a city deep in Russia when Ukrainians are nowhere near Rostov? Air Defence unit perhaps could be found there, but they aren’t equipped to fight infantry. Thousands of Wagner mercenaries could take quite easily the Military HQ. Besides, immediately Prigozhin made it clear they wouldn’t interfere with the staff running the war in Ukraine. They didn’t start either to defend their buildings. Moscow was different.

Above all, this is an armed forces in a bad condition and not fully controlled. What comes to mind is Corazon Aquino’s Phillipines (1986-1992) where there were multiple military coups against her Presidency and how the military was punished for these: they weren’t. Hence not punishing mutinies or coups simply shows the leadership hasn’t got firm control over it’s armed forces. Once when a strong President was elected, Fidel Ramos, the former armed forces commander, the coups/mutinies stopped.

Of course Russia is different, but what Putin has done is that he has created competing militaries in the system: the Army, the National Guard etc. and then even private mercenary formations like Wagner (which isn’t the only one). and let’s not forget that Wagner has worked closely with the GRU and other intelligence services. Fine if it works, but when it doesn’t /hasn’t, Putin is in the terrible fix he is now in. And he can blame himself for all of this.

So now that the coup is ended, Wagner effectively disbanded, — boethius

Has it disbanded?

(the Guardian) The Wagner group appeared to be continuing some of its operations on Monday, with recruitment centres open and fighters returning to their bases

There's zero evidence that Prigozhin has any backers in any position of power at all — boethius

So why on Earth the weak timid response then from Putin and the references to 1917 and civil war? How many Russian politicians backed Putin when Wagner was marching toward Moscow? I myself don’t know that, so it’s an important question.

You seem to have the attitude of ”Everything is fine, there’s nothing to see, the Russian leadership has everything in control” as it obviously hasn’t got everything in control. Then when Wagner is truly disbanded and Prigozhin dead or in jail, then things are ”under control”.

And if the objective of Prigozhin was to capture the military leadeship (as WSJ writes), it is absolutely hilarious to deny that this wasn’t a coup attempt, because they weren’t going for Putin. Such mutiny is more dangerous than just soldiers protesting and not following orders (which usually defines a mutiny).

:100: :up:

Let’s think what a mutiny is: simply a force that disobeys orders or won’t follow orders is basically a mutiny. Seizing the military HQ in Rostov, shooting down helicopters and advancing towards the capital is a bit more than just than a mutiny.

Now the Wagner coup might have been planned as in 1991 that the leader isn’t deposed (just stays at his summer place), hence it might have been a surprise for Prigozhin how Putin responded. Now Putin is thanking the (loyal) troops of succeeding in avoiding a civil war. A moment of silence was given to the killied helicopter pilots.

CSIS doesn't seem to think his intention was a coup. — Tzeentch

Katrina Doxsee isn’t CSIS. And then everything said before and after doesn’t at all give your impression.

And then there is whar Putin has said about this. It was Putin that referred this to 1917.

1957, 1991, …1825?

In other words, there seems to be a hierarchy of accountability in societies based on factors such as wealth, class, culture, etc. that feeds into larger issues surrounding how agency is treated. — schopenhauer1

And naturally of ownership and staus in the community. For starters, people behave differently to things and propertty if they a) own it, b) if they rent it or c) if it’s public property. Or if it’s not their property, do they know whose property it is.

Then come crucial things like do you feel part of the community or is the ”community” just rich assholes who hate you.

This is just pure delusion. 25 000 troops without any supply lines or airforce or satellite intelligence and so on, are not going to defeat a million troops with supply lines and all the hardware and gadgets. — boethius

Well, Yeltsin needed only to climb on an IFV and give a speech. And then all those milloin of troops (then, actually million) and their official leaders couldn’t do anything.

The most dangerous issue for Putin was the reaction of the man in the street in Rostov applauding the Wagner troops. Yet Prigozhin found himself alone, so he naturally goes with the whimsical ludicrous lie of this just being a ”protest”.

Maybe the action was genuine, and Prigozhin hadn't anticipated that his protest against the top brass would be interpreted as an attempt at a coup. — Tzeentch

Yeah, maybe shooting down helicopters is just a form of protest.

After the war, Western Europe embraced US leadership, economic support, and military presence — yebiga

Exactly: the countries embraced it.

But those who fell under Russian rule didn’t, as is obvious.

If you have problems in seeing the obvious difference, it’s your problem. The only one embracing Russia’s military presence is a Belarussian dictator who needs those troops to hold on to power.

My guess is that Putin fled to Belarus, — unenlightened

It’s been said that Putin fled to St Petersburgh. Of course it’s a rumour. History will be written later.

What could Prigozhin/Wagner hope to accomplish, though? Force change — jorndoe

Humiliate those in power, I guess. The establishment was already trying to contain him and Wagner. And do notice the enthusiastic response he got in Rostov. The deal he got shows how weak Putin’s hand was: Putin might have been worried about forces joining Prigozhin. Not so remote possibility.

he has been building his brand for a long time. Or have you seen antbody else from the Russian leaders at the front, talking next to his fallen men about the casualties or wanting more ammo for his men?

Of course, he is ”loyal” to czar Putin. But his intentions should be clear…when he just wants to ”talk” to the military leadership.

Lol, wasn’t Trump?

Prigozhin can now tell the truth, like there was no genocide against Russians in Donbas by Nazi Ukrainians etc. If he survives, he can perhaps be the replacement for Putin. What better thing for future leader of Russia to have his own private army for starters.

I don't see what troops would have attacked Rostov — unenlightened

Wagner troops occupied a HQ in Rostov. Hence if forces would have been deployed against the Wagner forces, the likely place of combat would have been Rostov. Now the Wagnerites withdrew from there (with applauding civilians on the streets).

There already seems to have taken place one brief incident in Voronez before the deal was struck. Hence this was a very close call.

An unstoppable coup that suddenly stops, a civil war averted without hardly a shot fired - it looks like an elaborate theatre, but for what audience? and with what intention?

What next, pundits? — unenlightened

The coup was stoppable…but likely would have ruined Rostov and weakened Russia internally even more. Putin and his chef avoided that debacle, but this showed the internal weakness of Russia.

Basically now coup plots are possible… when people depicted as traitors can just return to their barracks and the leader can go to a friendly neighbour country.

This is the beginning of the end for Putin, I’d say.

Now the role of the Wagner group is really akward. Their usefullness is quite questionable.

Actually Putin referred to 1917 in his speech, so he is already using the dolchstoss argument.

Besides, Putin has now the perfect ”Dolchstoss” reason just why the war in Ukraine went bad. He can forget now Ukraine. Internal security is more important.

Russia is more closer to civil war and break up than ever. And even if Putin can contain the situation, the unstability of Russia should be evident to all.

Whatever the outcome of this, there goes any chance of a peace deal. — RogueAI

Quite the opposite. Russia can sign peace, just as made peace with Japan (during the Russo-Japanese war), with Germany (WW1) or Poland (Polish-Soviet war).

Why is it so hard to understand that this one of those disastrous wars Russia has started that has lead to internal strife and humiliation? Putin has been a disaster for Russia.

This is an important question perhaps only in sports. Otherwise the discourse reeks to a media frenzy, politics and at worst transphobia.

Testosterone is performance enhancing for female athletes. And of course that male athletes are stronger, quicker than female athletes. And notice other subtle things what the records show: look at how many World records are from the 1980's. With men, there's one. With women, there's four. In the 1980s growth hormones and and anabolic steroids, which mimic testosterone, were widely used and only later more tighter control were brought in.

Current womens world records in track & field:

100 10.49 Florence Griffith Joyner (US) Indianapolis, Indiana 7/16/88
200 21.34 Florence Griffith Joyner (US) Seoul, South Korea 9/29/88
300+ 34.41 Shaunae Miller-Uibo (Bahamas) Ostrava, Czech Republic 6/20/19
400 47.60 Marita Koch (East Germany) Canberra, Australia 10/06/85
600+ 1:21.77 Caster Semenya (South Africa) Berlin, Germany 8/27/17
800 1:53.28 Jarmila Kratochvílová (Czechoslovakia) Munich, Germany 7/26/83
1000 2:28.98 Svetlana Masterkova (Russia) Brussels, Belgium 8/23/96
1500 3:50.07 Genzebe Dibaba (Ethiopia) Fontvieille, Monaco 7/17/15
3:49.11p Faith Kipyegon (Kenya) Florence, Italy 6/02/23
Mile 4:12.33 Sifan Hassan (Netherlands) Fontvieille, Monaco 7/12/19
2000 5:21.56 Francine Niyonsaba (Burundi) Zagreb, Croatia 9/14/21
Steeple 8:44.32 Beatrice Chepkoech (Kenya) Fontvieille, Monaco 7/20/18
3000 8:06.11 Junxia Wang (China) Beijing, China 9/13/93

Current mens world records in track & field:

100 9.58 Usain Bolt (Jamaica) Berlin, Germany 8/16/09
150+ 14.35 Usain Bolt (Jamaica) Manchester, England 5/17/09
200 19.19 Usain Bolt (Jamaica) Berlin, Germany 8/20/09
300+ 30.81 Wayde van Niekerk (South Africa) Ostrava, Czechia 6/28/17
400 43.03 Wayde van Niekerk (South Africa) Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 8/14/16
600+ 1:12.81 Johnny Gray (US) Santa Monica, California 5/24/86
800 1:40.91 David Rudisha (Kenya) London, England 8/09/12
1000 2:11.96 Noah Ngeny (Kenya) Rieti, Italy 9/05/99
1500 3:26.00 Hicham El Guerrouj (Morocco) Rome, Italy 7/14/98
Mile 3:43.13 Hicham El Guerrouj (Morocco) Rome, Italy 7/07/99
2000 4:44.79 Hicham El Guerrouj (Morocco) Berlin, Germany 9/07/99
Steeple 7:53.63 Saïf Shaheen (Qatar) Brussels, Belgium 9/03/04
7:52.11p Lamecha Girma (Ethiopia) Paris, France 6/09/23
2000 Steeple+ 5:10.86 Mahiedine Mekhissi (France) Reims, France 6/30/10
3000 7:20.67 Daniel Komen (Kenya) Rieti, Italy 9/01/96

And shouldn't a holiday be based on our greatest triumphs, and not a reminder of our worst failings? — TiredThinker

Isn't overcoming your worst failings one of your greatest triumphs?

It's not that your celebrating your existing failings, like an "Holiday for income inequality" would be. Besides, what's so bad about self-flagellation?


(Of course the Capirotes of these Italian peninents would get the wrong message in the US)

Let's talk about women's bathrooms: — Hanover

Some would view this start of the OP the evidence of all things wrotten in our American(Western) culture. This is what holds interest in a Philosophy Forum in the 21st Century.

Ah, the decandence of our times, this joyful enjoyable decadence. :razz:

Yes, The idea of the Russian nation is very different from let's say the US.

And I think many Americans or Westerners simply don't understand this. They just assume that Russia is in many ways just like their own country.

Note that these countries represent roughly one-third of the people on earth. — yebiga

The British have fought with a lot more people of the World than Americans, actually. So the I guess the US isn't yet the baddest of them all. Leave that to the English. At least historically. :smirk:

We have become what the USSR was, — yebiga

You'll be there when the US invades a NATO country that is trying to leave NATO.

But for the while, the US isn't there yet.

Thus we are not witnessing an "NATO-US Conflict with Russia over Ukraine" what we are really witnessing is the opening gambit of an unprovoked Russian Imperialist expansion. — yebiga

Exactly.

The real problem here is that Russia has no other identity as a state than an imperial one.

Russia is not a nation state. And it fears, or it's leadership fears, that it cannot have any other identity than the imperial one, that it has to be tightly centralized or otherwise it would somehow face utter doom. If it eases with the centralized control, it will break up. If it would be more multicultural or give more autonomy to the regions, it would break up. Or so the Russian thinking of the present elite goes. Hence Russia totally failed in creating a Russian version of the British Commonwealth with CIS. Hence now tries to use military might.

And what is worse is that the leader of Russia thinks that the dissolution of the Empire, when the Soviet Union collapsed, is somehow repairable. That the whole collapse was an unfortunate mistake, something totally repairable and recoverable. Hence the talk about the "artificiality" of Ukraine as a nation. And now the talk of "Novorossiya" and how Crimea is part of Russia, something quite similar to 19th Century Imperialism.

This just makes Russia walk steadfastly towards a disaster. Just as the supporters of the last Czar argued that the solution was for the Czar to hold on to his power given by divine right and not give one inch to the heretic liberal "Western" reforms, because autocracy of the Czar made the Russia Empire so great, so are the same movements now restarted and preach of the greatness of Russia.

... but we agree that the goal here is not "Ukraine winning" in any military sense. — boethius

The unfortunate view that some leaders have is that the war goal is about "Ukraine not losing", but not "Russia losing". And before someone comments that Russia losing is absurd as if that would mean Ukrainian tanks in the Red Square, I would again refer to history: Russia losing like in the Russo-Japanese war, the Polish-Soviet war or in the first Chechen war. Or in WW1.

Though, if Kyiv had nuclear weaponry at its disposal, then the Kremlin would have to rethink. — jorndoe

Something that the Ukrainians can be bitter about.

That's true. And of course a dictator for life is very different from a US president.

And we shouldn't forget that many who vote for Trump aren't the ones wearing the MAGA hats. Just as many of those who vote for Democrats aren't the stereotypical American liberal.

Trump doesn't have the discipline or power over the media necessary to match Putin at that. — frank

He doesn't have to.

What Trump lacks his supporters simply dream to exist as his abilities. Total bumbling is 4D Chess, remember? And as every negative news article is part of the global conspiracy against him, he is then absolutely fabulous.

It's surreal, but it works up their audience (=Trump's base). I'm also amazed at how much mileage the GOP is getting out of the FBI 1023 form, and how it's been misrepresented. (see this thread). — Relativist

Unfortunately I cannot find it, but there was a great BBC documentary about how totally surreal the world of the media in Putin's Russia had become where people could not know facts from fiction and thus, how truth was meaningless and how the objective was to have the people confused. This documentary was made many years ago, far earlier than there was any Ukraine war. Then I had difficulties to understand the whole documentary: how can it be that Russians cannot separate fact from fiction?

In a similar fashion, I think Trump goes (and will go) into the surreal. Anything doesn't matter, there is no objectivity or truth or falsehood, it's all about just where you stand and if with whom you support, that is do you support Trump or are you against him. Everything is just a rhetorical attempt to get new supporters and hold the supporters you have. And that there cannot be any other way. As if objectivity and truth and falsehood doesn't exist.

Longer time goes when Trump isn't in jail, furthermore it is proof to Trump's supporters that everything is a political witch hunt, the giant liberal conspiracy against Trump. And that's Trump's line: everything is a witch hunt against him that isn't supportive.

I think the next US elections will be quite surreal.

The Dnipro is a natural defensive line.

In the age of pin-point accuracy weapons going over it is a difficult issue. Not impossible, but just difficult. For example in WW2, the Germans tried desperately to destroy the bridge over the Rhein at Remagen, but a bridgehead was established over the river. Germans made several attempts to bomb the bridge, if I remember correctly.

Russian propaganda is also trying to play the cui bono card. Their western proxies amplify that narrative: — SophistiCat

Lol. Yeah, let's go that cui bono -thinking here. So Ukraine starts it's counteroffensive, but then limits it's possible area of operations by 87 kilometers by blowing the dam, from where then Russians can withdraw forces to fight were the actual counteroffensive now is going on. And what about the 17000 evacuated, the enormous harm done to agriculture and electricity production of 1,4 TW annually? To a country that has as it's objectives to liberate the territory from Russians. That was also preferable to what? That Russia would look bad?

At least the good thing is that now Tucker is giving his bullshit just on Twitter.

Unfortunately I don't have much time for the forum just right now ... but who's ramping up manufacturing to replace this material? — boethius

As the Western countries aren't themselves in war, there isn't a huge "ramping up" of manufacturing. Basically only Poland is making huge investments in armament. Yet Western manufacturers know that if the war ends, then the market immediately shuts down. Hence the increase in production is only marginal.

Likewise, where will people get replaced from when Ukraine starts to run out of able bodies? — boethius

Ukraine isn't running out of able bodies. Do notice that counterattack has been quite local and limited. Ukrainians understand well that this war can go on for a long time. After all, it started in 2014.

The Ukrainian offensives makes zero sense and is only happening because it is part of the media narrative that promised there would be an offensive. — boethius

I wouldn't say it makes zero sense. First of all, to have the initiative in war is extremely important. If you remain passive and don't engage in the enemy, you are handing the Russians the advantage: they can choose where and when to engage.

Furthermore, if you didn't notice, what happened to the Russian "Winter Offensive"?

(The Guardian, 9th Feb 2023) Russia has launched a major offensive in eastern Ukraine and is trying to break through defences near the town of Kreminna, the governor for the Luhansk region said on Thursday.

Serhiy Haidai told Ukrainian TV that Russian troops had gone on the attack and were trying to advance westwards across a winter landscape of snow and forests. There had been “maximum escalation” and a big increase in shooting and shelling, he said.

Actually the Russians were in the same situation as the Ukrainians just few months ago. And that Winter Counteroffensive was forgotten as it didn't go anywhere. Likely what will happen with the Ukrainian counteroffensive is that it will take time. Both sides have their limitations. The simple fact is that the Russian armed forces have suffered severe losses of equipment and trained manpower in the war since February 2022. Such losses will take many years to replace and hence the Russians have to keep a reserve too.

Goodie, let's have some external investigators (just don't get in the way of the defenders moving to kick the invaders out :smile:). — jorndoe

I remember when the Yugoslav Civil war broke out, EU sent observers to observe "the cease-fire" dressed in white overalls. And then you had television footage of these white overalls running for their lives as they were fired upon.

The most likely culprit is of course Russia as it's totally logical for them to a) make the end of the Dnipro unpassable and b) then withdraw forces from there to plug the Ukrainian counterattack. The only thing now is that after WW2 blowing up dams has been a war crime. But obviously Russia doesn't give a damn. Or a dam.

* * *

Seems that three of the six Leopard 2 mine-clearing tanks that Finland gave to Ukraine have met their end. But in a war of attrition, you spend materiel. The side that is attacking will face losses, if it doesn't have superiority on the battlefield. Yet likely the counterattack will go on for weeks or for months.

Do we have a full description and understanding of reality? No. — Tom Storm

I definately agree. Somehow we cannot admit that we are in some issues as clueless as people in the 19th Century. And many things are still unknown to us that have questioned us for a longer time. I think especially then as science and technology had advanced, people really had the idea that humanity as gotten everything.

Yet as our knowledge has advanced in our history and especially in the last 400 years on a rapid pace, it's quite probable that it will advance also in the next 400 years. And people 400 years from now will look at us in many issues like we look at the knowledge level of people in the 17th Century.

Of course, interaction with extraterrestials, if it comes to that, will likely happen in the timeline of Centuries.

The interaction is the problem, basically. At least for now, to our present knowledge, the speed of light is a bit of an obstacle.

If we solve our "limitations in our understanding" and create the faster than light hyperdrives or teleportation, then there's a bit more to the subject of interaction with aliens.

As you said, that notion of "goldilocks" territory is something we can know. OK, how about hypothetical that the James Webb telescope or it's successors find that perfect planet on the goldilocks territory and get the chance to take a picture of it and it really looks like Earth, has all similar materials? Fine, but then what?

And it's more than 50 light years away. With even so close, it's really a long thing to try to interact.

Perhaps the question isn't about laws of physics, but increasing the age of humans then.

Or, do you think this is all malarky? — BC

The probability of there being other living beings in the universe is so high that I would say there are alien life forms, even advanced organisms alive right now when we discuss the issue here.

And except that, the vast majority of UFO stuff is malarky. Just look at the radius our radio waves have gone in the Milky Way:


Yeah, not many have had the chance to notice us.

In fact, as we know now what is in the forest (even the Christian fanatics accept that from biology), we (usually) don't believe in goblins and faireys and other magical creatures living in the forest next to us. But with UFO and outer space, there is a lot that we don't know. Hence it's the perfect place for us to put our superstitions and goblins and faireys -stuff to work. There is a social demand for this.

They had the same concerns though didn’t they? — I like sushi

Far more was it about money and old rights, I guess. Then there was more of the backdrop of the guild-system (that was being abolished) and the modern capitalist system was just becoming of age.

This is part of a declaration made by the Frameworck Knitters in 1st of January 1812:

Whereas by the Charter, granted by our late Sovereign Lord Charles the Seacond by the Grace of God of Great Brittain France and Ireland the Frame Worck Knitters are Impowre’d to breake and Distroy all Frames or Engines that fabricate Articles in a fraudilent and Deceitfull manner and to distroy all Frameworck Knitters Goods Whatsoever that are so made—And Whereas a number of Deceitfull Unprinciped and Interguing Persons did Attain An Act to be passed in the twenty Eight Year of our preasent Sovereign Lord George the third Whereby it was enacted that Persons, Entring by Force into any house Shop or Place to Brake or Distroy frames should be Adjudged Guilty of Feloney, and as we are fully Convinced that such Act was Obtain’d in the most Fraudilent Manner Interesting and Electionering manner and that the Honourable Parliment of Great Brittain was deceived the Motives and Intentions of the Persons Obtained such Act we therefore the frame worck knitters do hereby declare the aforesaid Act to be null and void to all Intents and Purposses, Whatsoever as by the passing of this Act Vilinous and Impassing persons Are Enable to make Fraudilent and Deceitfull Manifactory’s to the discreadit and utter ruin of Our Trade.

These people were seen as Luddites. Is it the same thing now? You be the judge.