The problem is, any time anyone gay, non-binary, disabled etc does anything now, it gets labelled as "woke".
Are they supposed to just hide? Like they've had to do for most of the history of Christian and Muslim countries? — Mijin

One has to understand that the whole discourse about anything that involves especially sexual minorities has been hijacked by the politically driven culture war rhetoric. The whole culture war rhetoric spreads simply like a cancer and it dumbs down everything. Just like anything involved with feminism, DEI etc. And this goes both ways.

Referring to "woke" is a sign of this just as if someone argues that some Trump administration policy is "nazi". Or the American Eagle jeans campaign being nazi or whatever.

Try to have a reasonable smart conversation when people are just looking for dog whistles everywhere. It's very hard.

The US economy isn't slowing down, though. Not yet anyway. — frank

The US economy usually grows at around 1.3% in the first half of the year. It makes up for that in the last half. But yes, we're waiting for the full effect of the tariffs. So far, it's not as expected. It's actually a lot closer to what Trump predicted. — frank

Frank, one should remember just how GDP growth is calculated. Imports are subtracted from the equation, meaning that as imports to the US fall and as they now have fallen off a cliff, GDP grows.

Like the first quarter contraction wasn't indicative of a coming recession, the second quarter expansion is not a sign of a booming economy. Both readings have to do with Trump's tariff policy and the reaction to it. In the first quarter, it was a steep increase in imports in anticipation of upcoming tariffs that drove the GDP decline. As imports are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, a surge in imports actually hurts GDP growth, even if only in the short run. Conversely, imports declined at an annual rate of 30 percent in the second quarter, which in turn boosted GDP growth.

see U.S. GDP Growth Bounces Back as Imports Plummet

Now just ask yourself, is truly a huge drop in imports something that makes Americans better off? How about then having absolutely no imports of anything, starting from no coffee from abroad, no foreign cars etc? This would (with everything else being the same) also increase the GDP.

What's the irony of intelligence services simply doing their work?

A sex offender like Trump can easily have 'kompromat' here and there.

So Ghislaine Maxwell got a sweetheart deal, can go off from prison to work, something similar that Epstein himself got the first time in Florida. Well, Trump wished the convicted sex trafficer well and here we see what that well wishing in actuality means in Trumpland.



Trump really has taken the corruption and criminality down to Third World level in the US. That Trump was introduced to his showcase wife by Epstein seems to have hit a nerve too in the White House.

:rofl:

Great one.

Let's see how the talks in Alaska will go.

Not very hopeful as Trump is a very lousy deal maker, and there's still the possibility that Trump pushes Ukraine to a lousy deal and gives everything on a platter to Putin. Not likely, but still a possibility.

Wouldn't be the first time anyway ... — jorndoe

But wouldn't hit the soft spot anymore. Europeans don't take anymore the bullshit tactics as they did earlier.

Good point. If one coherent (whatever that means) interpretation can be produced it seems likely innumerable can be. This will call the legitimacy of all of them into question. There might be advocates of each of them.

This is one logical outcome. However I still intuitively feel that no coherent (whatever that means) translation can ever be produced. — hypericin

The largest outcome naturally is that we aren't alone as a 512-page book with obscure writing doesn't accidentally form just by accident in the universe. The real problem simply is that there's no way of knowing just what "the book" is about or what it is meant for. It can look like to us as a book, but that is the only thing we understand. We can just guess and this makes cracking of any code difficult.

Indeed we had to have the Rosetta stone to finally crack the ancient hieroglyphs. Even before we could assume what they were telling: praising the greatness of the Pharaohs etc. What else do you write in Temples etc? In this case, people would be having argument on just what is the whole function of the "book".

It looks like the military has joined the fray against the drug cartels, just as you predicted. — NOS4A2

Trump is a president that will do what he says.

Hope the US military will collaborate with Mexico, or it will be something like the US going after the Taleban in Pakistan earlier. The worst outcome is if the White House demands something "flashy" to come out of the operation or takes control over the operations, then the US can have another fiasco at their hands.

(BBC) Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has rejected the idea that the US might invade Mexico after news reports suggested Donald Trump had authorized the use of military force targeting drug cartels deemed terrorist organizations in Latin American countries.

“The United States is not going to come to Mexico with their military,” she said during a daily news conference on Friday. “We cooperate, we collaborate, but there will be no invasion. It’s off the table, absolutely off the table.”

* * *

Well, we just saw Ghislaine Maxwell being put into a minimum security prison after Trump's personal lawyer (now top DOJ official) went to talk to her. How convenient.



The Epstein case won't go away. More and more, I think it's really looking to be one historic conspiracy as the link to Israeli intelligence (or part of it) seems realistic. Otherwise Epstein's rise to have the ties that he had would be difficult to understand. And because both parties are involved and the US-Israeli connection is so delicate, likely the thing will be swept under the rug (as it has been now for years). Or then anyone referring to the link is accused to be an anti-semite racist.

I'm not sure how wokeness is different from an agenda of conserving grudges, as if we lost the momentum and are now losing all the gains from the Civil Rights Movement. We've landed back in the 1960s and the only way forward is to demand corporate virtue signaling. I'm detecting a lack of underlying meaning. — frank

What the Civil Rights Movement in the US fought for or labour laws in my view isn't anything to do with woke or wokeism. Just as isn't the shortly lived protests against Israel's actions in Gaza. The proponents of DEI surely might see them as the continuation or those that continue to further these past political struggles, but in fact they are not.

The US has a real political crisis with Trump's actions and is on the road for an fiscal, monetary and economic crisis ....sooner or later.

To effectively critique wokism you have to understand its philosophical underpinnings. — Joshs

The problem with this is that basically "woke" and "Wokism" is defined by those who reject the whole thing. It already is a critique. Many of those then accused of being "woke" never have thought to be "woke" and don't understand what is meant by it. Hence starting to look at the underpinnings is a bit difficult.

For example, Zizek isn't in my view at all woke. Yes, he may be close to post-structuralism in some views, but basically he is just a leftist intellectual who obviously totally clear about the negative aspects of Marxism-Leninism as he was born in Yugoslavia.

Wokism is just a collection of leftist overreactions and eccentricities. That's the actual punchline.

Anyway, when wokism is officially attacked by the Trump administration, the whole issue is beyond stupidity just like with the so-called culture wars. Good luck having an intelligent discussion about the culture wars.

I just love the now Trump is fighting with Rupert Murdoch.

I feel good for the Americans who don't like either of the two political parties running the US. With a hideous sex scandal involving TWO Presidents that represent both parties, It's so hilarious to see how the partisan hacks are incapable of discussing ALL the Epstein client list.

The thing that is different now is the mobility of capital. Companies or not beholden anymore to some place or community, but can shop all over the world and force favourable conditions from governments who are put into competition with each other.

So yes things tend to oligarchy, the question to me seems what kind of oligarchy. — ChatteringMonkey

Actually, the current globalized economy gives a rise to oligopolies.

What Economists love is a Perfect Market with Perfect Competition, which is extremely theoretical and basically only used because of the mathematical easiness of the model. Monopolies usually happen only by a state or government creating a monopoly. A Duopoly (market controlled by two companies) is rare if not nonexistent. Yet an Oligopoly, few large companies and corporations controlling the vast majority of the global market is the absolute norm.

Just pick any industry or service and you will find few giants ...and then local regional small companies. This happens both because of sovereign states are in trade packs, but also because one company/corporation cannot simply control all the markets everywhere. Natural monopolies don't emerge in reality. As the size of a corporation grows, so does all the inefficiencies of a large organization with bureaucracy, red tape, etc.

Once we understand that a globalized economy turns production and services to a market controlled by Oligopolies, then we can understand that the situation gives rise also to oligarchs assuming we have capitalism.

Perfect Competition is only a theoretical device, when you just look at what it would take to have a perfect market and perfect competition. Oligopolies are far more difficult to model.

You disappeared for a couple weeks there. — NOS4A2

Last time I wrote was two days ago, so couple of weeks is a bit of an exaggeration.

And having a summer vacation...

Did you finally find a little angle to exploit? — NOS4A2

Well, what do you think Patel and Bongino are doing to the credibility of the FBI with the turns and whims in the Epstein case?

Tzeentch finally discovered QAnon — frank

Lol, :snicker:

Well, QAnon is the classic way that every actual conspiracy is made so bonkers that no sane person can believe it. From starting that Epstein had ties to intelligence services to then believing in flat Earth. When you can link the two, then you can say everybody thinking that Epstein had ties to intelligence services is a Flat Earther. Right?

Let's just remember pizzagate... and the pizza place with the basement that wasn't.

Assuming it is true, it would explain a thing or two.

For the record, I think it is more likely true than not. — Tzeentch

I agree with you. I think it might very likely truly be true, the World is simply such a crazy place.

And years ago I remember one US media (I think it was saying that this is the last scandal that actually people want to be opened up, because it's of a bipartisan nature. With possibly two US presidents from opposing parties involved in the sex ring, this isn't something that either the establishment or the staunch partisan defenders of MAGA or DNC want to hear.

But ah, FBI Director Kash Patel and former podcaster and FBI Deputy Director Bongino are indeed making my FBI forecasts to be true (that Patel will really damage the FBI). First Trump attacks Iran, then this. :smile:

(CNN, Sat 12th July 2025) Deputy FBI Director Dan Bongino has told people he is considering resigning amid a major clash between the FBI and Justice Department over the continued fallout from the release of the Jeffrey Epstein memo, sources familiar with the matter told CNN.

This comes after a heated confrontation with Attorney General Pam Bondi over the handling of the case earlier this week.

The infighting over the case came to a head during a Wednesday meeting, which included Bongino, Bondi, FBI Director Kash Patel and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, the sources said. Bongino and Patel were confronted about whether they were behind a story that said the FBI wanted more information released but was ultimately stymied by the Department of Justice, they said.

It's so nice to now to watch the comments on the Epstein issue the present FBI director Kash Patel made when he was just the author of Trump children's books:



I'm just waiting when @NOS4A2 will come here to enthusiastically defend Trump. :lol:

A farce — jorndoe

Nope, reality of the Trump presidency. Which is something like a tragicomedy.

(the Standard, 16th July 2025) The family of disgraced British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell has said new evidence such as “government misconduct” could be used to challenge her imprisonment.

The 63-year-old was found guilty in December 2021 of luring young girls to massage rooms for paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein to molest between 1994 and 2004.

She was sentenced to 20 years in prison at the federal court in the southern district of New York (SDNY) in June 2022.

The US government has faced a backlash from President Donald Trump’s support base following words from Attorney General Pam Bondi that there was no evidence Epstein had a “client list”.

Just last year Maxwell lost the appeal against her sex trafficking conviction. But this year... it's the Trump administration, and Trump FBI, Trump DOJ.

So now when Trump is saying there's no Epstein client list, will Ghislaine Maxwell walk free and have evidence dropped?

Talk about where Trump & friends put the FBI and DOJ.

Yep, now it's time for the usual actions of the Trump administration.

And this is just his first year. I start to anticipate that we really can have the big "dollar crisis" during Trump's second term. Just have Trump being similar as he has been now for a year or two, with similar "Liberation Day" and TACO stuff going around.

In reality there's going to be just one thing that will really put Trump to a tight spot: the bond market, the absolutely crucial lifeline for the US government of selling treasuries. A lot has to be rolled over this year, and the debt will rise even with the additions of few trillions that the "Big beautiful bill" will give. (Which btw people won't feel the positive aspects as the tax cuts are basically extensions of earlier tax cuts)

As of July 03, 2025, total gross national debt is $36.22 trillion.

Debt held by the public is $29.03 trillion.
Intragovernmental debt is $7.19 trillion.

Assuming the average daily rate of growth over the past three years continues, the U.S. will reach $37 trillion by approximately December 02, 2025.

At that rate, an increase of another trillion dollars would be reached in approximately 194 days.

I would urge people to notice if the intragovernmental debt starts ballooning, or the treasury holdings held be the Federal Reserve. That would be a bad sign.



But just as long you can use the credit card, no worries...

You're right, I don’t consciously compute every problem I encounter. But that doesn’t mean computation isn’t happening. Much of the problem-solving is outsourced to unconscious brain processes. - So while I don’t deliberately compute everything, my brain is constantly computing - just not in a way that feels like "doing math". — Jacques

But this doesn't at all counter my point of there being uncomputable mathematics and hence uncomputable problems. Or to put it another way, undecidable problems where an undecidable problem is a decision problem for which an effective method (algorithm) to derive the correct answer does not exist.

So, while machines and organisms differ in origin and complexity, their internal workings are, in a deep sense, physico-chemical systems, and thus comparable under the lens of natural science. — Jacques

Again, this isn't at all an issue of vitalism at all or how related in a deep sense physico-chemical systems are. That isn't the question, the question is purely logical and of logic.

Here's where this goes wrong, and I'll try to make my case why it is so:

While subjectivity may not be computable at present, I assume it is in principle — Jacques

I don’t see why subjectivity, or anything else a human brain does can’t be modelled. — Punshhh

These two comments are quite close to each other. I reason that the thinking is the following: everything what either we or computers do is computation or can be modelled as computation, hence there is a correct model. Hence subjectivity isn't a problem (@Punshhh) or we could perhaps find the correct model in the future (@Jacques).

Here it is extremely important to notice just how negative self-reference works and how it creates a limitation and how it is related to subjectivity.

We could start with the observation: you can freely write anything you want, there is no limitation on what you write (yes, an administrator can ban you for some writings but that doesn't limit what you at first can write).

With negative self-reference we can show that there indeed is a limitation on what we can write, because we cannot do the following thing:

Write something that you never will write.

And obviously that is none of us can do: anything we write will instantly be part of what we have written, hence we simply cannot write something we don't write. Us writing them creates the "ownership", or the subjectivity, to the matter. It is something that we have written. And naturally we can reason that there is a set of writings, that we will never write.

The solution to this problem isn't just to assume a fourth person that could do this (who could write what we never write). For him or her (or it if it's a computer or AI) the limitation stands too on what they produce.

If you have understood my point so far, then one question could be: OK, what's the big problem here? Surely we can avoid this kind of logical trap.

The question is can we avoid this with every important question we would like to model or compute?

Because once any computation or model has impact to what the outcome is or what the correct model would be, the possibility of negative self-reference emerges. And many of the most important questions we have the models/computations can really have an effect on the outcome. Some can be handled and taken into account, but negative self-reference cannot.

Hope this will clarify my point.

While it's true that most people might share your opinion, it's worth noting that several prominent thinkers have argued that the brain—or even the human being as a whole—can be understood as a kind of machine. — Jacques

Do note the "as a kind of machine". Yes, we can talk for example about molecular machines in our body, but there still is a difference between living organism and an artificial motor human have constructed. But yes, we can generalize, so I also agree that we can talk about motors.

While subjectivity may not be computable at present, I assume it is in principle, given that the brain - a physical system effectively functioning as a (non-digital) computer - somehow gives rise to it. — Jacques

Wait a minute.

Do you understand the Turing's Halting Problem and the Church-Turing thesis?

First and foremost, there is uncomputable mathematics. Not everything in mathematics is computable. Period, end of story. Do not assume that everything is then computable ...in the future or anywhere.

You are making a mistake if you just assume that subjectivity may not be computable at present (and here the emphasis on computable), but in principle it could be. Well, if you put it that way, you are basically arguing that Turing is wrong (and actually Gödel with his incompleteness theorems too). Non-digital computer doesn't make actually any sense, if by digital you mean something relating to computers or to electronic technology that uses discrete values, generally zero and one. It would be like talking about unhuman humans (there are plenty of inhuman humans, but not unhuman humans). And discrete values don't have anything to do with this problem.

Do note that computation is a specific way to solve problems, the process of performing calculations or solving problems using a set of well-defined rules or instructions, following algorithms. We don't compute everything if we are presented with a problem. Or do you really compute every problem you find?

I’ve come to the conclusion that most media portrayals of AI developing "its own motives" are based on flawed reasoning. I don’t believe that machines—now or ever—will develop intrinsic motivation, in the sense of acting from self-generated desire. - I also reject the idea that humans possess some irreducibly mysterious cognitive abilities. Qualia, intuition, consciousness—they are all real phenomena, but I see no reason to believe they’re anything but products of material data processing. The brain, though vastly complex, is just a physical machine. — Jacques

Machines and living entities are a bit different (as I assume you know), but let's accept the very broad definition here and ignore the obvious physical differences between man made machines and living organisms.

Yet do notice the logical difference: AI is still a computer (or a network of computers) and acts like a computer, it follows algorithms robotically. A human can indeed understand the "algorithms" he or she is following, and then change them and have initiative because we can act as a subject. A computer cannot: it has to have in it's algorithms clear instructions how to deal in a situation where a human would use initiative, imagination etc. Yes, indeed AI can mimick humans very accurately, but it isn't thinking as we are, it's computing/calculating.

This idea reminds me of Turing’s Halting Problem: the impossibility of writing a general program that determines whether any arbitrary program halts. Turing showed that such a program would lead to a logical contradiction when applied to itself. Similarly, a human trying to model the human mind completely may run into a barrier of self-reference and computational insufficiency. — Jacques

I'm starting to think it's because we haven't understood simply how general the limitations what Turing's Halting Problem are to us. Computation is objective, but once you put in an element that is subjective into the equation, namely that the Turing Machine should take into account the actions of itself, we have the halting problem. When that self-reference is basically negative self reference, it's impossible to do this, hence the famous result.

Let me give you the most easy example of this:

Try to do the following: Write a reply to my post that you never will write.

Now obviously you cannot do it. Anything you will write obviously won't be in the category (or the set) of things that you will never write in your lifetime. Are there replies that exist that you won't write? Yes, obviously there are these kinds of replies as you don't live forever. Hopefully you can notice the negative self-reference in the above statement. Yet do notice also the subjectivity. Perhaps a friend of yours could fairly accurately describe what kind of reply you will give. For him or her, the modeling (of what your reply will be, if there is one) can be objective. But once it's you, there's no way out of it.

This similar problem came to discussion with @Sam26 in his [TPF Essay] Wittgenstein's Hinges and Gödel's Unprovable Statements where I brought up the difference with the objective and the subjective. I'll rewrite what I said in that thread:

Everything is about objectivity and subjectivity, actually. It's not merely a psychological issue, but simply logical. We can easily understand subjectivity as someone's (or some things) point of view and objectivity as "a view without a viewpoint". To put this into a logical and mathematical context makes it a bit different. Here both Gödel and Wittgenstein are extremely useful.

In logic and math a true statement that is objective can be computed and ought to be provable. Yet when it's subjective, this isn't so: something subjective refers to itself.

Hence between a computer (be it AI or whatever) and a human being, the logical difference might be more clear when we think of the difference from viewpoint of subjectivity and objectivity. A computer computes and cannot act as a subject, make decisions itself and go against the algorithms and "do something else" what isn't in the algorithms whereas we can understand our reasoning (basically our algorithms) and then come up with something new from them.

Yet note just how fixated we are with the false view that everything can be described objectively. The standard counterargument would be that we humans indeed are similar to computers, but the "algorithms" we use are somehow on a hidden layer of "meta-algorithms" that we cannot describe. Yet what this is basically just insisting on the view that everything can be modeled objectively and we just assume this meta-algorithms of us...without any explanation why. Yet there doesn't have to be at all any kind of "meta-algorithm" at all, it is just that subjectivity isn't computable.

When you think of it, this is like a cat going around a cup of milk that is too hot for it to drink as subjectivity (at least to me) brings up the question of consciousness and the hard problem of consciousness, learning, etc. Yet here to model these "problems" by showing that they are indeed mathematical and logical is beneficial.

I'm not entirely familiar with the halting problem, but your wording suggests a mistake in your reasoning. It may not be possible for some program A to determine whether or not itself will halt, but is it possible for it to determine whether or not some equivalent program B will halt? If so, even if I cannot model my own mind, I may be able to model your mind, and if it's reasonable to assume that our minds are broadly equivalent then that will suit our purposes of modelling "the human mind" in general. — Michael

Math and logic are precise. There you cannot wiggle your way off just by assuming something. Otherwise we can always just assume a "black box" that gives us the correct models to everything and not think about it more. I can also assume to have a "black box" that gives me a solution to every math problem. The problem with this thinking is that I have no specific answers, naturally.

And anyway, If not familiar to the halting problem, please look up this site about Self-Reference and Uncomputability. It shows how the halting problem (and Gödel's Incompleteness Theorems) are tied to self-reference and uncomputability. Let me remind you that one outgrowth of the Halting Problem was the Church-Turing thesis, a vague definition for computability. Computers literally compute.

And anyway, the problem here is that basically both you and @Jacques are part of the universe and you cannot just assume to look at the whole universe outside of it to get that truly objective viewpoint needed. Just look what physics turns into when measurements start having an effect on what is measured.

So now the Elon/Donald breakup has gone to the point where Elon is saying that he will create a new political party, the America party.

(Reuters) A day after asking his followers on his X platform whether a new U.S. political party should be created, Musk declared in a post on Saturday that "Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom."

Yet what's the credibility after the failure of DOGE to make any true impact (other than canceling USAID)? Quite laughable. At least the guy is as distracted as ever from actually running his companies, so I guess Tesla will continue to plummet.

Russian imperialism 1.01, the short version covering the past and the present:



Noteworthy comments from the interview:
-Empires fall when they try to bring on some kind of a democratization process or democratic reforms.
-The present Russia has now an expansionist regime which is more dangerous than during the Cold War when Soviet Union was basically just defending what it had in Europe behind the Iron Curtain and where the rest of the World was the playground for Superpower competition.

General hostilities in the region have come up before:

Researchers home in on origins of Russia’s Baltic GPS jamming (— Defense News · Jul 2, 2025) — jorndoe

For Putin's Russia, there is no line were actual hostilities start from their side, but just something that can be stretched as far it can be. Yet we have to understand that Putin has said that it is in war with NATO. And this guy usually means what he says.

I think we're talking past one another. I don't think Trump has any particular policy regarding the middle east. — frank

It seems so. We agree on this.

Perhaps the policy of Trump is be in the limelight at all times and make people/countries react to your actions?

- It has successfully controlled Middle-Eastern oil to such an extent that it allowed the US to take the world economy hostage via the petro-dollar. — Tzeentch

You have a strange idea of hostage situations, but anyway.

Very typical to totally forget and sideline here the House of Saud, which is very crucial to the whole thing. The House of Saud, once a British protectorate, then made good relations with the rising Superpower and finally made Saudi-Aramco purely Saudi owned, without a clash with the West as had happened with Iran. That the Saudis went with the dollar when Nixon got out of the gold standard was very crucial for the US. Even if there is hostility towards the US in the country (starting famously with Osama bin Laden), the partnership that hasn't any ideological or cultural ties has continued as a real example of realpolitik.

You, and many others, are operating under an assumption that the 'forever wars' had some envisioned endpoint of permanent victory. They did not. Talk of 'spreading democracy', etc. was just the figleaf.

Causing chaos and destruction was the whole point - except in those countries that willfully kowtowed before Washington and basically assigned themselves voluntarily to vassal status. — Tzeentch

This is the typical anti-American rant, that doesn't at all grasp the reality of how expensive wars are ...especially when you end up losing them, just like Vietnam or Afghanistan.

If this would be such an incredibly successful foreign policy towards a region, then wouldn't it then be better according to you that the US would have to bomb or occupy West European countries in order to "prevent regional powers from rising through classic 'divide & rule' strategies, and by destroying any West European country that started showing signs of prosperity and a sense of independence".

Oh, the US would be so better then...

Yet on the contrary, the US was OK with European integration and an EU to rise. Forget the Marshall Plan? Why was this so good according to your "divide & rule"? And this makes the US far different from classic imperialist countries like Russia.

In truth in the long run "divide & rule" is a constant uphill battle and a perpetual drain on the economy and resources of any country/empire. Thus after exhausting the prosperity in these quite mindless wars, then empires falter.

It's irrelvant. — Tzeentch

It's not irrelevant.

How did the Warsaw Pact countries then show their gratitude towards Russia after being former "allies" of the Soviet Union? Of course, these countries were no "allies" like NATO members are as the basic objective for the Warsaw Pact to exist was to reinforce the Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe. And in this role the Warsaw Pact acted very well in 1956 and in 1968. So them joining NATO when they had the opportunity just shows this. Putin's disastrous policies afterwards have just shown they were 100% correct and invading neighboring countries has just reinforced other European countries to see what kind of a danger Russia is.

US power in the Middle-East would be waning anyway as a result of the shifting balance of power, but the key here is that none of those enemies are capable of inflicting a real cost upon the US. — Tzeentch

The Taleban couldn't inflict a real cost upon the US, but it won the war and the US lost, just like in Vietnam. That's a fact. My basic reasoning here: when you have to bomb a country, you have already lost a lot, namely peace. Being in a dominant position and having peace is the true measure of success.

If you have to bomb, occupy countries and there is true resentment of your occupation (like in Iraq), that's not success. It isn't the worst defeat, but it surely isn't success. All I'm saying is that this train wreck cannot be described as an success in any way.

It's not wasted breath to vent your hatred of the USA. — frank

I don't have a hatred towards the US. The US has had a great foreign policy in the long run in Europe. When other countries voluntarily join your alliance, do want keep in it, and look for the US for leadership, that is true success.

But in the Middle East, two former ally countries of the US became it's enemies (Iran, Iraq), which the other one the US invaded (Iraq), and with a third country (Pakistan) the relations are now non-existent and nearly hostile, which can be seen from the crucial role Pakistan had in the Taleban defeating the US backed regime, which meant that the US lost the longest war it had fought.

Why do you say that above is this astounding remarkable success or "a well-established pattern"? It's not my hatred of the US that I "vent" this. It's simply the truth. Losing wars like in Afghanistan isn't what the US would want to happen.

Perhaps for Trump the Middle East with the Gulf States brazenly and openly giving bribes to him is what he is indeed the place that he is exited about. That Western democracies don't do this and cannot do this perhaps makes him irritated. Why this would be a good thing I don't know.

To make such a statement, one must first understand what the principal US goals have been in the Middle-East. In my view, it is first and foremost about securing access to cheap oil and denying stable land-based access to others (like Russia, China and India). Second, it has been to avoid any regional competitor to Israel from rising. (Note the role Iran plays in both of these) — Tzeentch

If your previous allies turn into your enemies, how do you think that would be a success of any kind?

This policy has been remarkably successful for decades. The US completely dominated the Middle-East, and successfully laid waste to the region at will. — Tzeentch

Bullshit. Laying waste to a region isn't anything successful. Having something like the occupation of Iraq isn't a success. US has now fought several wars in the region. It's simply a huge waste of money as the region is as volatile as before.

Having Western Europe in NATO and peaceful is what success looks like.

Just compare the UK and Saudi-Arabia as allies to the US. Which country is the US afraid of if there would be a revolution and the current regime would be ousted and a hostile to the US regime could get into power? Or how about Egypt? What if the Muslim Brotherhood takes power or an even more radical cabal takes over? How friendly are now the ties with the US and Iraq?

(Anti-US demonstration in Iraq in 2020)

The Middle East has been fucked up since the British ruled it. The US has not returned it to a state of organic ease and well being, but all they wanted was oil, right? — frank

Don't forget the French. Thanks to technological advances like fracking, the US isn't dependent on the Middle East anymore. So what's really the point?

The universe contains many laws which govern how the universe operates e.g. laws of physics. The question that is puzzling me right now is why are there laws in the first place and why is the universe not lawless instead ? — kindred

It's simply human behavior.

It comes from us being aware of our surroundings and simply from survival skills. Reasoning, logic and putting things into cause and effect is the method how we have become a totally dominant species in this World. Now we can harness everything, be they other animals, plants or natural resources to serve our species. Now I would argue that other animals do use also logic, can count up some number in a very rudimentary way etc., but they lack totally the systemic approach we humans have to this thanks to our advanced language system to communicate complex issues to each other. Whales and dolphins can communicate about things like where food is, but their "language" is a simply communicating tool.

Because this is the very useful way we model reality, we start calling things as "laws of nature". Yet in the end, it's simply the way we reason things.

The only thing that hasn't happened is for the entire narrative to collapse. People keep on believing the delusions, etc., but that's not actually something that will help the US going forward. Keeping people high on delusions and propaganda has a long-term cost, and all it is achieving is allowing the US to continue a defunct foreign policy. — Tzeentch

You are right. If US Middle East policy is looked on the long run, it really has been a train wreck. But people just don't think about it. Yet when you went from having CENTO, having nearly all the major regional players as your allies to then having "Twin Pillars" (of Saudi-Arabia and Iran) and then to the present, it's obvious that things have gotten just worse.

South East Asia shows how actually things can improve. The US has now ties with Vietnam. The Korean Peninsula is rather stable. It isn't involved in a shooting war in the area. Now it doesn't have such an alliance system as it has in Europe (SEATO simply failed), but the region is rather peaceful (apart of Myanmar).

The fact is that domestic politics overrides conventional foreign policy for the US especially when it comes to Israel. And Bibi understands this well, I'd consider him the only case of politician that can operate in the political realm of two countries.

So, basically the 12-Day War has turned out as a complete disaster for the United States and especially for Israel.

Neither of two possible goals (regime change and destruction of Iran's nuclear program) were achieved. In fact the war has made it more likely that in the long-term Iran's regime will survive and that it will get its hands on nuclear weapons. — Tzeentch

In the long run maybe, yet it wasn't a disaster. Iran isn't parading captured Israeli or US pilots. Nor are there pictures of IDF or USAF/USN aircraft being shot down.

It's like the Patriot missiles during the Gulf War. Back then the technology was still to poor and basically the Patriots didn't hit incoming Scuds at all, but the media portrayed a stellar kill score for the old missiles. And that was enough. The public didn't care about it later when it came to light that the Patriots back then had failed. With these strikes, history will tell us in the future, but then it will be an issue the public doesn't care about.

The real failure is that there is no peace is in sight for Israel and Bibi and the Likud party have basically accepted that. Israel is in a permanent war footing, and it will need similar large scale military operations in the future. And now the US is trusty sidekick for Israel.

And the MAGA-morons are still happy with Trump. The no-new wars in the Middle East will be forgotten and what will be promoted is that Donald Trump is the only President since Reagan that has fought with the Iranians (and selectively even Reagan's successful war, Operation Praying Mantis, will be forgotten).

Well my comment was regarding Western countries. It looks to me like any appearance of increased average prosperity is on account of increased debt. It seems that, in a world of diminishing resources that are becoming ever more costly to extract, we are borrowing against the (illusory) promise of increasing future prosperity. — Janus

Well, technological advances have kept up, so even if we already have experienced Peak conventional Oil many years ago, yet we don't have a crisis of diminishing resources. The resource crisis that people were counting to happen by using simple extrapolation models from the present didn't happen. What we have is a very problematic monetary system that is based on perpetually growing debt. When will that happen, who knows.

In fact, I would dare to say that our modern society is far more able to deal with global crises than civilizations were earlier. The Pandemic just few years ago is a case example. Yes, it has been always very trendy and hip to look at our future in a bleak and pessimistic way. Yet Oswald Sprengler wrote The Decline of the West in 1922. The decline of the West hasn't happened yet, I would say that the great catch up done by many Asian countries doesn't tell us that the West is declining. Even the US can survive two Trump administrations, I guess.

That said, how many economists today include the environment in economic reckonings as anything other than a range of "externalities'"? — Janus

Look, economists as fortune tellers forecasting the future can basically predict only 6 months ahead. In fact, it's great if they can agree on the economic cycle we are just now in. Changes in the environment take a bit more time to happen. Yes, summers are warmer than before, but all it takes is a few volcanoes to erupt and cause the temperatures to fall. That's the problem with forecasting: you can see the obvious long term cycles going on, but that doesn't matter if something else puts you into a totally different situation you have prepared for.

Hence we do have things like climate change, falling population growth and other issues that are quite clear and will happen, but forecasting what will happen simply depends on too many butterflies flapping their wings and creating hurricanes in the other side of the planet. Start from a butterfly like Donald Trump would not be a TACO and go through with "Liberation Day" tariffs.

Besides, human decisions have huge impacts on the environment and wildlife. Just to take one example: In the 19th Century whales were hunted to near extinction and whale had to be replaced with other oils as there simply weren't enough whales in oceans. Then in the mid 20th century whale population made a huge comeback in only a few years. What happened? WW2 and unrestricted submarine warfare all over the Atlantic happened. This had the effect that basically for the wartime years no whalers went out to hunt whales as they themselves would have fallen prey to German U-boats. Just like the Chernobyl nuclear disaster that created a wildlife refuge around Chernobyl, the environment reacts to our actions in ways that we haven't thought of.

(Bisons near an abandoned Belarussian village in the Chernobyl exclusion zone in 2016. Wildlife are able to reproduce before falling to the radioactivity of the place.)

During the post modern period, High Art lurched from one development to another culminating in conceptual art, which was nonsense asserted as High Art and grotesque perversions of modernism, asserted as High Art. — Punshhh

Well, the so called High Art has it's tendencies to go the extreme as @Count Timothy von Icarus gave us an example with "stuff like human excrement or menstrual blood thrown at a canvas with a paragraph on how it's attacking capitalism, the patriarchy, etc. attached".

Yet I don't think this is regression. It's simply art transforming to an institution that will desperately want to do something new ...and shocking! Perhaps it's like a political movement which at start had sound and justifiable objectives and an agenda, which the majority of people agreed on, has then an existential crisis, when these objectives are gained. Then comes the "next wave" of thinking and thinkers, the new generation, which is usually hijacked by radical ideologues. The next wave after that is even more silly. This has happened to feminism, when you compare modern feminism to the suffragettes. Yet it also has happened to liberalism, when one just thinks of the anarcho-capitalists and their take on just what an ideal libertarian society would be like.

True regression would really being of losing some technology or skill that previously was there. If that technology or skill lost isn't worthy to be kept up, that isn't so bad. But when it is something that people have enjoyed or have given a lot of value, then that is really bad.

We should notice that art is far more the parody many give it. Art isn't only the exhibitions and concerts that the hoi polloi doesn't have money or interest to experience. Pop music is one thing I think will be here to stay just like movie art, thanks to the 20th Century. Perhaps the problem today is that for example making music is simply too easy.

Trump ends sanctions against Syria. Hopefully they can utilize the moment for reconstruction and prosperity. — NOS4A2

At least here I can say that this is a good thing.

And also that Trump has gotten the 5% defense expenditure in NATO going forward... and he didn't leave NATO.

Of course, now governments are having think tanks on just what expenditure can be put into as being defense spending. (The Nordic idea of Total Defense will give lots to spend on).

So that's the rare positive feedback on Trump.

But now I guess the time to make those beautiful trade agreement before the "liberation" tariffs set in is coming to an end. And Trump has done... one with the UK?

This is not to say there wasn't a very real loss of knowledge. Civic engineering projects like the Roman roads and aqueducts arguably wouldn't be matched for 1,300 years, or at least 1,150. At the same time, the Byzantines erected churches that arguably best the great temples of antiquity during the "Dark Ages," and even when the Latin West was still culturally and economically backwards, its ability to dedicate a high chunk of GDP to cathedrals for generation after generation of construction (many spanning centuries), led to Gothic masterpieces that bested anything from antiquity or the Christian East. — Count Timothy von Icarus

What is interesting that both in the fall of Rome and the fall of Constantinople you have in both cases a huge logistical disruption of simply there being the incapability of feeding a huge metropolis. With Byzantium it was losing Egypt to the Arabs. After that the agriculture in the Balkans couldn't sustain a huge city as Constantinople had been. When the Ottomans finally took over Constantinople, it was a pale image of a city what it had been before with fields inside the city. Something like Detroit, perhaps.

I always love to put this graph up just to show the long term effects of when "All roads lead to Rome" wasn't anymore reality and how long it took for modern Rome to grow past it's former self in Antiquity (even if this graph talks about Istanbul, not Constantinople).

It should be noted too that progress and regression is not unidirectional. Europe today has great difficulty maintaining its great cathedrals (or say, rebuilding Notre Dame) because the skills required are almost extinct. There have been similar issues even in relatively short timespans, like highly classified military technology becoming "lostech" that no one knows how to maintain or recreate (e.g. the US nuclear modernization program's struggles, or efforts to return to the moon). This is actually a fairly common problem in the industrial sector, and it's also been a huge factor in Russia's inability to replace war losses. — Count Timothy von Icarus

I agree totally with this. Once some technology is replaced, the techonology does vanish if there aren't some historians or collectors that uphold the knowledge of the technology once the old engineers and users die. Fortunately in many things we do respect our earlier technology so much that have the understanding around. And hopefully that doesn't happen with things like art.

One great example to us is cars. The modern version of various computers on wheels run by batteries is somewhat easy to use. At least for us, who use computers daily. Cars 50 or 60 years old are easy for us also, but when we look at the first cars like the Ford T-model, many people would have severe difficulties in starting the damn thing without instructions (given here aptly by AI):

Here's a more detailed breakdown:
1. Prepare the car:
Engage the parking brake: This locks the transmission and prevents the car from rolling.
Turn the ignition switch off: This is crucial for safety during hand cranking.
2. Locate the hand crank:
The crank is a long, metal handle located at the front of the car.
3. Engage the crank:
Insert the crank into the designated slot at the front of the engine.
Ensure the crank is properly engaged before proceeding.
4. Crank the engine:
Use a strong, upward pull on the crank to turn the engine over.
Do not push down on the crank, as this could cause injury if the engine kicks back.
Some recommend using your left hand with your thumb outside the handle to avoid injury from potential kickback.
5. Adjust controls:
Throttle: The right lever on the steering column controls the fuel flow to the engine.
Ignition timing: The left lever on the steering column adjusts the timing of the spark plugs.
Choke: The choke lever (often a small rod) can be used to enrich the fuel mixture for starting, especially in cold weather.
6. Start the car:
Once the engine is turning over, you can adjust the throttle and ignition timing to find the optimal settings for the engine to run smoothly.
You may need to experiment with the choke to find the right mixture for your specific conditions.
Once the engine is running, you can release the hand crank.

That said, I am a great appreciator of contemporary art museums and I think the frequency of such work is vastly overblown. There is a lot of good stuff out there that is very creative. However, it is true that a lot of this very creative stuff also has a seemingly obligatory paragraph about capitalism or patriarchy attached to it, and that does seem to be a bit of a straight jacket on much (but hardly all) contemporary art. — Count Timothy von Icarus

Much less than the straight jacket that religious art was (or is still today).

Yes, indeed creativity and something new are things put on a pedestal in modern art in my view.

Culminating in the radicalism of modern art and now in the post modern era, High art has died. Ravaged and crucified by the modern and post modernists. — Punshhh

I wouldn't say that. Simply after the technique was basically universal, which any art school could teach, then the focus was simply to have other techniques than photorealism. That in the end you had modern art isn't at all a death of high art.

We should remember that Picasso painted also this, when he was still a child:



Or this, a portrait of his mother:


Hence we can assume if Pablo Picasso have lived Centuries earlier and he would have been able to follow a career of a painter, he would have also then been an able master.

To assume that once you have modern art that high art has died or degenerated is something that the Nazis were eager in believing. Personally I don't agree with them.

The Middle Ages and the Renaissance are categories encompassing many forms of art, including literature, poetry, architecture and music. Given the fact that Gothic architecture and polyphonic music were both born in the high Middle Ages, it is difficult to justify the claim that art as a whole ‘had fallen back’ during that period. — Joshs

Gothic churces are indeed awesome, yet what is totally obvious is that a feudal society simply doesn't employ artists as much as a more prosperous society that enjoys international trade and a high level of job specialization.

Don't forget Trump's war on international institutions, like the ICC and the UN.

In economics I'd say Trump is at war against international trade and globalization. The sad truth is that many are for this, when they would basically want more fair income distribution, not for higher prices and more inefficiency in the economy (by going against trade).

I'm not convinced that the visual arts, at least, regressed in the so-called Dark Ages. — Janus

Well, there was a time called the Renaissance, so at least people back then did think that art had fallen back in the Middle Ages. Only in the 19th Century we started to feel romanticized by the Middle Ages.

Art from Antiquity:


Art from the Middle Ages:


Renaissance art:


Why they call it "Renaissance" should be obvious to everybody. Of course now as we have modern art and cameras, even AI making pictures, hence difference isn't so evident. But back then before cameras, it was evident that some abilities had been lost. Above all, it should be noticed just how limited it was to few cities where the "Renaissance" happened. Just to show how Medieval the artists in the periphery were, here's a Finnish Church painting from the 16th Century made by a local Finnish artist.

This picture is from a Finnish Church painted in the start of the 16th Century:


This is from Italy at the same time period (actually, from ten years earlier), also a Church decoration:


Today we rarely understand the huge difference in the ability to paint as you can go to any country today and you will find artists that can paint photorealistic paintings. Take classes in your local art school, and many could be "masters" earlier... at least in the periphery. But back then, it really was only a few like Leonardo da Vinci and not many else.

I'm not economist, but I think that any apparent general increase of prosperity in the West over the last twenty years or perhaps longer is largely "smoke and mirrors". — Janus

We should stop gazing at our own navel and notice what huge transformation has happened in the World. Absolute poverty has decreased dramatically around the World. China is far more prosperous than it was fifty years ago as are many countries all over the World. The growth simply hasn't been so fast in the West as it has been in other places. Above all, one should note that we suffer more of the problem of income distribution where the rich have come far richer while the middle class and the poor haven't seen such increases in prosperity as the rich. Yet in absolute terms, absolute poverty has diminished even in the West.

I agree, we must always start from where we are. It seems to me that hankering for ancient, "lost" wisdom is a fool's errand, given that we may well be misunderstanding the contexts within which ancient literature found its meaning. — Janus

Well, I would be really happy if the book written by Zeno of Elea would be found and we could read thodr additional paradoxes that Zeno had found and in general something that the Eleatic School itself actually thought, because now we have only the writings of those who opposed the school. And naturally finding a part of the books from the Library of Alexandria that the Romans didn't burn would be fabulous. However it's unlikely that there would some totally unknown philosopher or mathematician who back then would have to the same conclusion if not have gone beyond Gödel's incompleteness theorem and would tell us something new that we are eager to hear. That is extremely unlikely.

Besides, we do know how that losing of knowledge happens in history.

Perfect example is how Antiquity turned into Middle Ages and what we call the "Dark Ages". Talk about a collapse in trade and in globalization. That's all it takes. Once North Africa couldn't feed Rome (as Vandals conquered it), then Rome's population started to shrink rapidly. Once that happened, then urban professionals like artists and engineers that relied for income from an advance economy simply didn't have any demand for their work. And then simply things like drawing, sculpture, engineering etc. simply regressed. When large administration became impossible, the logical solution was feodalism.

Earlier example is the Bronze Age Collapse. These historical developments and anything similar in the future can have a dramatic effect on our knowledge base. It might not be a societal collapse, but simply an economic collapse.

My favorite example of this is when an university professor, perhaps teaching the language that is spoken in country, has to have a second job as perhaps a taxi driver. This is reality in many Third World countries as universities simply cannot afford to pay a reasonable salary to their teachers. It's not reality yet in the Western World, but it surely can be. It sounds like a small difference, but in my view it's quite huge and tells a lot about the prosperity of the society itself.

But do you reference the 18th and 19th century in it's relatively peaceful international relations, such as between European powers not having yet discovered the true power of industrial warfare, or in its ruthless colonial competition aspects? — boethius

18th Century was a mess in Europe. A lot of wars and very unstable alliances. Yes, there wasn't yet industrial warfare, but there were the fighting and the armies roamed, that was total warfare. And so it had been even earlier.

Colonial competition started really in the 19th Century globally as then the technological advantage the West enjoyed was totally overwhelming. It was only Napoleon who first showed European technological superiority to the Ottomans, but do noticed that he was kicked out of Egypt. Only in the 19th Century was the Ottoman Empire "the Sick Man of Europe".

Is North Korea even so isolated now? — boethius

Good point, actually North Korea is the country which is now in a firm defense pact with Russia. The North Korean troops now fighting in Europe show this.

It's so wild that the US is now attacking institutions it created for its own benefit. — boethius

And it's actually the real reason why the Superpower status of the US is waning.

Especially the MAGA-morons don't understand that whole system was designed for the US itself and to especially benefit Americans! But no, the brainfarts of Trump, the great populist orator, have been taken as Holy Scripture and they truly think that all the international organizations are there to fuck Americans. And that international trade is bad. And they don't need that Superpower status, that somehow it isn't useful at all for them.