Your meaning is clear -- my identity is a lie because I ought select from the binary on the shelf like everyone else so that we can get onto the important things — Moliere
or else you're just clearly playing the victim so you don't have to deal with the guilt of living in the global north but can instead play the victim of the people you sympathize with while simultaneously not realizing your material life depends upon their suffering. — Moliere
I've been trying to highlight how identity isn't a scientific concept, and that we utilize it not on the basis of our shared language, but on a day-to-day basis for understanding one another and ourselves. — Moliere
Since meaning is use, after all, new meanings are invented daily as we re-encounter new contexts. Every use of the word is itself a new meaning which isn't fixed by a Public Shelf of Meaning, but is instead invented as we provide charity for creative uses in new contexts. — Moliere
There's a sense in which identity is performance, and so it's not truth-apt. But that's not to say it's not real. — Moliere
I don't think the difficulties of specifying identity are unique to trans individuals, but have always been there -- it's just that this topic has highlighted these difficulties for people. — Moliere
if you belive that IMF cripples freddom, could you provide specific data how the IMF impacts the HFI? — Jabberwock
When I have pointed out the internal factors in Russia, such as political oppression, which might prevent that, you simply dismissed them. And now you are saying Ukraine cannot improve its HFI, citing economic oppression AND internal factors, which are suddenly important.
Are you even serious? — Jabberwock
the countries in the US sphere of influence are perfectly capable of reaching HFIs so high that they outperform even the US... How does constitute an argument that Ukraine should not join them? — Jabberwock
My support is that for the last year Russia has made very minor gains, while Ukraine had major gains. Ukraine has liberated half of the territory that Russia grabbed since 2022. — Jabberwock
To argue for peace you have to show there is a reasonable chance for an alternative. The very issue is that you refuse to do so. — Jabberwock
No, just crap negotiations are over, which you yourself acknowledge Minsk 1 and 2 were. As you said, we would have to do better. I do not how we are supposed to do that. You know, but will not tell. — Jabberwock
On the chart you have provided Russian exports are 'picking up' month to month, which means that they might have a good sale or two in one month (especially if the previous one was rather poor), but it is not indicator of recovery for the longer run. If you look at the 1Y, 5Y or 10Y graph, it always has smaller ups and downs (for every country), which is not indicative of the long-term trend. — Jabberwock
The fact is that Russian exports are overall lower than before the war and last year. — Jabberwock
if you can explain how the country that has apparently income at least 25% lower and expenses 40% higher year to year (or in any reasonable longer period) is doing great, I am all ears. You can also explain how a country that depends on the imports for a significant portion of its war effort can finance increased military spending when its currency is tumbling down. You might also tell me why Russia has classified most of its economic indicators, if it is doing well. — Jabberwock
we know current score for Russia, Ukraine and, say, Belarus, and we know current scores for countries which are no longer in Russian sphere of influence. The difference in HFI is rather significant, which might motivate Ukrainians to leave it. — Jabberwock
The difference is that at least some of the area might be deoccupied (and some already were), while your 'leaving them' would likely end in occupation of the whole Ukraine (and we have no idea when it might end). — Jabberwock
The issue is that non-violent means, negotiations and agreement were already tried and they did not work. — Jabberwock
So you believe trade deficit is equally hurtful for major exporters and minor exporters? You believe month to month is a better indicator of export rise than year to year or 5Y to 5Y? — Jabberwock
we have a prejudice in favor of situations where we perceive ourselves as free to act, or, better, that we filter out predictions that we interpret as curtailing our freedom to act. — Srap Tasmaner
Maybe you're right that we prefer the one we think we understand to the one we're clueless about.
But I still think there's some prejudice for perceived agency, and maybe it's just that people think "poverty doesn't take my freedom" because they don't understand it. — Srap Tasmaner
I don't want to relitigate the wisdom or necessity of lockdowns — Srap Tasmaner
the deep resistance some people felt, the revulsion for having their freedom curtailed, was accompanied by this message that they had much less agency than they wanted to believe, that if they went about their regular lives they would get sick and make others sick and it would just happen, not up to you, not a matter of choice. — Srap Tasmaner
Anti-natalism fulfils the first two better than any other policy. — unenlightened
I think perhaps one might better distinguish first violent from non-violent, and individual from national responses. — unenlightened
Maybe there's a similar mistake here: under an authoritarian regime, you have no freedom, no opportunity to control your fate; if you're poor but free, at least there's a chance you can do something. People do across the board refuse to believe that great, impersonal, historical forces affect them, so they reject the idea that poverty would be as deadly for them as a bullet. — Srap Tasmaner
I do not see skimming off the top as being a optimal way forward. — I like sushi
I suspect this skepticism is a luxury. The sovereignty of my nation is not in question. For some, achieving sovereignty is the necessary first step to securing freedom. — Srap Tasmaner
Why do you also think there's little to choose between being under Putin's boot and the IMF? Surely there's more room to maneuver against an enemy that puts you in debt than one that assassinates or imprisons you. — Srap Tasmaner
When they were communist states, they were more like Russia, so when they stopped, their HFI would increase (if it was assessed then). — Jabberwock
I think it is quite possible that Russia will not give up all the territories it has gained and Ukraine will not be able to get them back. As I said, the main point is depleting Russia's potential to the point when it is no longer capable of threatening Ukraine. — Jabberwock
And why would Putin use nuclear weapons? Free Ukraine might be a mortal threat in the future, using nukes would end his regime definitely and rather quickly. — Jabberwock
I am asking you to support it — Jabberwock
trade to GDP ratio — Jabberwock
year to year, or compare 2021 — Jabberwock
depend as heavily on trade — Jabberwock
several PPP indices — Jabberwock
No, there is passive resistance and underground resistance, and argument and demonstrative protest, and a thousand variations thereof, from labour strike to hunger strike and from assassination attempt to the whole repertoire of terrorism. — unenlightened
But the police themselves confront. overwhelm and arrest muggers, and do risk their lives. Otherwise they would have no authority to give any advice. — unenlightened
even the police do not advise giving up your home, your children and your neighbours to the muggers. — unenlightened
We cannot know the consequences of our acts in advance, nor the counterfactual consequences of alternative acts with hindsight. Gandhi suggested that Hitler could have been stopped by non-violent means but even he admitted it would have been difficult and costly — unenlightened
The policy of non-resistance has the highest authority — unenlightened
So in fact their freedom increased? — Jabberwock
now their HFI is quite high, much higher than Russia's. Thus is it reasonable to assume that if Ukraine stopped being 'just like Russia', as you claim it is now, and was more like them, HFI of its citizens would significantly improve. — Jabberwock
It would be sufficient to maintain a simmering conflict, as you wrote, not for a full-scale war effort which it is taking now. — Jabberwock
The conflict would be resolved by getting Russia to a point when Ukraine will be able to integrate with the West without Russia preventing it. — Jabberwock
Without addressing all the particular reasons for why this is not likely in this particular case — Jabberwock
trade deficit — Jabberwock
exports income — Jabberwock
current account — Jabberwock
ruble exchange rate — Jabberwock
it might be reasonable to turn e.g. to basket-based indices, such as Romir. — Jabberwock
where do the loan repayments come from? — LuckyR
There are many things we can do — any of them would be a start. Close these loopholes; wealth tax; higher corporate and individual taxes; higher capital gains tax; get rid of the social security cap. — Mikie
a diversity of ideas and opinions and stimulate new ways of looking at issues among the participants — Alkis Piskas
well-supported — Alkis Piskas
I'm not sure "teaching them a lesson" is the only other possible goal in refusing. I think there are times when people acknowledge that you might be able to take what you want from them, but you're going to have to take it, they're not going to give it to you just on the threat that you'll take it. — Srap Tasmaner
if a population could sustain a strategy of not complying, they raise the cost of control for the would-be boss, and that's rational, even if you can't be sure you're raising the cost enough to deter him. — Srap Tasmaner
After the communism Eastern European countries were in a rather poor state, with rather poor infrastructures, inefficient, seriously outdated industry, etc. Then they were in significant debt from the IMF (with significant part of it relieved) and they had 'imposed' pecuniary free market restrictions. It did not limit their freedom — Jabberwock
their freedom (i.e. HFI) soared. — Jabberwock
Well, at least we see Russia is running out of artillery, although slowly — Jabberwock
What you propose is wild and unsubstantiated hope that somehow Russia will leave Ukraine alone if we give them more and more, even though it has no reason to do so. — Jabberwock
It needs to be sustained at the level higher than Russia, which hurts economically much more. — Jabberwock
Sure, I have already said that strong ceasefire negotiations work. What is required for that, however, is some sort of conflict resolution. — Jabberwock
You cite hypothetical unknown assumed factors that would prevent Putin from starting the war. If that is so, I can cite hypothetical unknown assumed factors that would push Putin to war. — Jabberwock
do not expect that an argument that you are unwilling to support will get any serious consideration. — Jabberwock
these are only useful approximations -- even when they're descriptive not of a person but of a role we need them to play. — Srap Tasmaner
I'd like to be distinguishing here and there between 'cultural' and 'social' but without doing that I've been giving short shrift to the necessary social context. -- Sexuality is obviously a social thing even when it's not cultural (among other mammals, say). — Srap Tasmaner
That's a nice analogy, so what's wrong with it? — Srap Tasmaner
What that layer comes up with might be puzzling sometimes, not just to others but to ourselves, and obviously that's an opportunity for culture to step in and offer to tell you what you actually think or feel, since you're evidently confused. — Srap Tasmaner
Those inferences might be in some ways more nuanced and in some ways less -- they don't care how elegant or comprehensive or consistent the taxonomy we make out of them is. — Srap Tasmaner
it all seems too static, as if 'society' has a list of acceptable moves and you have to pick from those else you're speaking nonsense.
But exactly what we're talking about is creating the social capital you acquire by changing the rules of the game. — Srap Tasmaner
what we're talking about is creating the social capital you acquire by changing the rules of the game. — Srap Tasmaner
The stories we tell and the social moves we make may have to work with conflicting intuitions. I'm not going to be on board with sexuality being purely social, that just seems crazy to me. — Srap Tasmaner
Have you tried climate? Abortion? — jorndoe
It's not that people weren't somewhere on the gender-bender spectrum, it's that it has become acceptable in some circles to be yourself in that way. In another time people would re-express in various ways, but -- in the positive spirit of capitalism that Marx likes -- we've invented new social forms because it was profitable to do so. — Moliere
People really are different in their various ways of relating to their gender, their body, and their identity or gender-identity. — Moliere
the situation had changed quite much from what Peskov had suggested. — ssu
The only thing actually that China has done is that it has declared it won't tolerate the use of nuclear weapons. At least that's positive. — ssu
I wouldn't reach for guilt-removal/repression-expression as much as I'd reach for learned callousness -- people learn to be selfish and pursue their own needs. — Moliere
Let us check then the one sufficient indicator of human freedom there is: the Human Freedom Index. How those poor Eastern European countries opressed by the IMF (which practically financed their transition) and the free market practices of the EU are faring? — Jabberwock
I did not say it will be short and decisive. — Jabberwock
Rocket attacks on the cities are nasty, but they have little to no military significance. They might hinder formal acceptance into NATO, but they will not be able to stop Ukraine's militarization and informal integration. — Jabberwock
While the war is simmering, it will not be formally accepted, it will just be armed and informally integrated, like Sweden. There will be no security guarantees, just military assistance. The point is that Russia must be too weak to stop it. — Jabberwock
That is not 'just leaving them there', that already assumes successful negotiation of ceasefire with Putin on unknown terms. And not resolving the conflict at this point leaves him with enough potential to start trouble again soon. — Jabberwock
I assume that there are exactly as many factors that Putin would take into account in determining future military action that would prevent it as there are factors that would convince him to do it. — Jabberwock
If you are not interested in discussing support for your theory, why are you interested in discussing it at all? — Jabberwock
Is there even a side? Or are there a multiplicity of sides being generated in order to keep people coming back? — Moliere
I think it affects us all pretty equally. It's like when you learn there's this cognitive bias called such and such: just because you know about it doesn't mean you're immune to it. Even if you have a ritual, as I've outlined with absolute skepticism, the propaganda still effects feelings -- Propaganda works. — Moliere
I don't think anyone is playing victim either -- I think trans people are victimized through violence against them. — Moliere
I think of this whole thing as giving the lie to the libertarian (or anarcho-capitalist) worldview that trade and commerce and markets are natural and self-sustaining. They're not — Srap Tasmaner
Sorry, been a bit sick, so I respond only now, well later of the discussion: — ssu
it's now obvious that Russia doesn't have the ability to destroy the Ukrainian military, hence some kind of settlement between both sides has to be reached by both sides. Yet this depends on the military situation. If war is a continuation of politics by other means, then surely a political settlement of a war depends on the military situation on the ground. — ssu
In these kind of situation it's difficult to see the reasons just why a settled peace would have been possible. — ssu
Obviously people better informed than me thought it possible so that's good enough for me to consider it a reasonable option. — Isaac
Please give a reference to this or the source. — ssu
And do notice that both Republics are now part of Russia and Russia has annexed even more oblasts from Ukraine. — ssu
The real possible interlocutor would be China in this case, but it doesn't feel the urge to commit everything to find a solution. — ssu
This redefinition has even less to do with the conflict in Ukraine. — Jabberwock
Sure, if the war is short and indecisive. Then the conflict will still not be resolved. — Jabberwock
Destroying Russian's potential to wage war prevents it from further attacks for a longer time. If Russia is too weak to attack again, then Ukraine may join NATO which will prevent Russia's attack for much longer. The conflict is still unresolved, but Russia is unable to resolve it militarily. — Jabberwock
Although its armed forces have suffered significant casualties and equipment losses that will take years to recover from, they are still formidable. And as they demonstrate daily, even in their current sorry state, they can cause significant death and destruction for Ukrainian military forces and civilians alike. The campaign to destroy Ukraine’s power grid might have fizzled, but Moscow will maintain the ability to hit Ukraine’s cities at any time using airpower, land-based assets, and sea-launched weapons...In other words, no matter where the frontline is, Russia and Ukraine will have the capabilities to pose a permanent threat to each other. But the evidence of the past year suggests that neither has or will have the capacity to achieve a decisive victory—assuming, of course, that Russia does not resort to weapons of mass destruction
this is not about moving a front line, but joining by Ukraine the economic and military community which will put it outside of Russia's reach for a long time. — Jabberwock
That is absurdly false. Taking the southern coast would not be possible, if Ukrainians held Crimea and Donbas. — Jabberwock
But this is still irrelevant to the resolution of the conflict. — Jabberwock
The issue is that just 'leaving them there', unlike 'leaving them there and causing a regime change', does not resolve anything, and in particular, it does not stop the war. — Jabberwock
I am waiting for the competing factors. What are they? — Jabberwock
That is it? — Jabberwock
Lol. — Jabberwock
I have described it above: decreasing Russia's military potential to the degree where it is no longer capable of preventing Ukraine's accession to NATO and EU, which is the only 'assurance' it can get. Hopefully this results in Ukraine getting back its lands, but it is far from certain. — Jabberwock
capital "wants" people to be predictable because then you can plan profit flows, have workers show up on time, and so on. Or maximize engagement -- the propaganda machine automatically selects for any belief which will maximize engagement. — Moliere
This is how pronouns work. — Moliere
On the other hand, 'authoritarianism' as you define it now — Jabberwock
you can have a nice HFI in Crimea and still attack your neighbors — Jabberwock
no matter where the frontline is, Russia and Ukraine will have the capabilities to pose a permanent threat to each other
your argument stops being relevant to the resolution of conflict in Ukraine. — Jabberwock
Mine has the advantage of accepting the war on more advantageous terms, yours does not (because it involves ceding territories, which can be used as a staging ground for future wars, exactly as Crimea and Donbas were used). — Jabberwock
Are you saying that wars do not resolve conflicts? — Jabberwock
Do you believe those are the only two possible or the two most possible options? — Jabberwock
leave them there and fight to free the whole of Russia (including those regions) from tyranny, or expel them and continue Ukraine's progress toward the removal of tyranny in it's regions. — Isaac
the fact that Putin has already attacked Ukraine and annexed its territory, then threatened it with a war and started it does not give us any indication to what his possible decisions might be? — Jabberwock
what is your proposed peaceful solution to the conflict in Ukraine? — Jabberwock
No, I have explained for many posts before that relying on a single datapoint out of many is incorrect. I have talked about it over and over. — Jabberwock
Have you read it? — Jabberwock
The Economist Democracy Index — Jabberwock
RSF Freedom of Press — Jabberwock
Human Freedom index for 2008 — Jabberwock
Polity IV State Fragility 2009 — Jabberwock
Freedom in the World 2013 — Jabberwock
They all show that the situation in Russia and Ukraine is not nearly as comparable as HFI would have us believe. — Jabberwock
you switched from 'we have two options, peaceful regime change in the WHOLE OF RUSSIA and war' to 'freedom in Donbass can improve'. — Jabberwock
I have already responded: it would require to discuss it and reexamine your argument in view of it, just like i did with your evidence. — Jabberwock
it just means that the strategy you advocate likely does not prevent the war, just delays it. That is, the strategy you advocate likely leads to war — Jabberwock
That is a method toward solution, not a solution. It tells me nothing about how the conflict would be resolved. — Jabberwock
If you write 'there are two options', you typically mean that the options are reasonably exhaustive and exclusive. If there are more options to avoid the war, why not mention them? — Jabberwock
The idea that the only way to promote the freedom of the people of Donbas is to fight a bloody and destructive war to keep them under Ukrainian rule is ridiculous and ahistorical. Extraction from the yoke of tyranny has almost universally been won by the people, not governments invading each other.
For better or worse, Russia are now embedded in Donbas and Crimea. There are two choices; leave them there and fight to free the whole of Russia (including those regions) from tyranny, or expel them and continue Ukraine's progress toward the removal of tyranny in it's regions. — Isaac
we have a strong reason - i.e. previous Putin's conduct - to believe it is unlikely. — Jabberwock
I don't. Have I anywhere made the argument "just cede Donbas, do nothing else, and that'll work"? — Isaac
You wrote specifically:
The argument was subsequent to negotiation, and territorial ceding (which are the means by which the conflict might end). — Isaac
So that is what I go by. — Jabberwock
this evidence was used to argue that a peaceful regime change in Russia is likely, which was your argument (once) — Jabberwock
I have described very specifically why your support is inappropriate — Jabberwock
There is nothing political about including several indices as opposed to one. — Jabberwock
the single one given is an outlier. — Jabberwock
You have switch talk about changing regime (which is specifically required for the improvement of the situation, as you have yourself admitted) to talk about nebulous freedoms and insisted that improvement in the latter somehow impact the probability of the former. — Jabberwock
argued that it is sufficient to support your very specific argument about probability of peaceful regime change in Russia — Jabberwock
People in Crimea reaching higher HFI did not stop Putin from starting the other war, therefore it is not unreasonable to conclude that leaving people in Donbas to reach higher HFI will not stop Putin from starting another war for Kharkiv, Odessa or Kiev itself. — Jabberwock
i have accussed you of not engaging with counterevidence I have spoken about. — Jabberwock
If you are content with a solution that does absolutely nothing to resolve the conflict, so be it, but then it means (given your alternative) that the only other option to actually end the conflict is war — Jabberwock
you have failed to propose a peaceful path for resolving the conflict. — Jabberwock
If we have two choices: to go to the Italian restaurant for dinner or starve, and we reject starving, then there is no other option but to go to the Italian restaurant. — Jabberwock
So your solution is to cede territory and hope that the conflict MIGHT end. — Jabberwock
Putin was peacefully given Crimea and it did not stop the conflict — Jabberwock
Why think ceding Donbas would be different? — Jabberwock
You have just asserted that your cherry picking does not constitute fallacy, without explaining why it would not. That is the difference. — Jabberwock
you do not ask for clarity, you dismiss terms — Jabberwock
I'm asking how. What is this 'taking together' you think you're doing? Half way between the two? Biggest wins? What are you actually doing when you're 'taking together'? — Isaac
How? Explain what you think happens. Cato make mistakes. Freedom House make mistakes. You put them together, then what? The mistakes magically pop out? What happens to the mistakes when you look at both reports? You see the differences. How do you know which ones are mistakes/biases? Majority rules? Magic bias detector? — Isaac
...? Most likely? Where are you getting your probabilities from? — Isaac
'Likely', 'most likely'. Any idea as to the difference? — Isaac
What would constitute 'engaging' with them? — Isaac
The HFI is as good a measure of 'tyranny' as any. Short of you getting out your tyranny-o-meter, what could you possibly bring to bear to dispute that? — Isaac
Is it? How? — Isaac
And yet you still cannot tell me what 'engaging' is... — Isaac
What fallacy? You've still not explained how my data selection in this instance is a fallacy — Isaac
What exactly is the nature of Freedom House's 'challenge'? What exactly am I supposed to show to demonstrate having 'reflected' on it? — Isaac
I have talked extensively about the only piece of evidence presented by you and I am ready to talk about any other you would be willing to present (but you are not willing). You refuse to talk about evidence presented by me. That is the difference. — Jabberwock
Given that you explicitly reject the second choice (i.e. continuing the war), then you are committed to the first one — Jabberwock
Improving the HFI (even if likely, which your evidence does not show, because it can move both ways) does nothing to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. — Jabberwock
I believe that having a tight state control over protests, social gathering and social organization in general has a negative effect on probability of regime overthrow by peaceful protests, because all budding protests are dispersed immediately, often brutally, and their leaders are quickly taken out by the unfair judicial process, so the protests cannot gain momentum. Do you disagree? — Jabberwock
I think it's a pretty common distinction across languages, though my familiarity is European languages: English as primary with some studies in German and Spanish. So it's not the linguist's viewpoint. — Moliere
I don't think it an oddity at all though because patriarchy -- the patrilineal descent and control of property -- is a common among the cultures which utilize these languages. We mark distinctions which are important, and being able to tell who is going to own the stuff after I die is important. — Moliere
In real life, and not on the internet (which is different), any trans person I've known has been gracious towards me figuring out the customs they prefer.
Probably why I'm pro-trans. I've never really had a problem with any trans person I've met in real life. — Moliere
the internet, though, as I said earlier -- I really think it changes the way we relate, at least on the social media pages with algorithms designed to increase engagement no matter what — Moliere
I have given your four articles about the fallacy you commit. You either understand them or not. — Jabberwock
Yes, it seems all terms are amorphous to you. — Jabberwock
Well, even if you had a glance, you have refused to talk about it, which is about the same. — Jabberwock
Here you go: — Jabberwock
For better or worse, Russia are now embedded in Donbas and Crimea. There are two choices; leave them there and fight to free the whole of Russia (including those regions) from tyranny, or expel them and continue Ukraine's progress toward the removal of tyranny in it's regions. — Isaac
the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine requires overthrowing of tyranny — Jabberwock
I counted on your intelligence, did not expect that I have to spell it all out for you. — Jabberwock
If you misgender a cis person then you are corrected, right? — Moliere