How does a story that makes no sense survive that long? — frank

Because we're neurotic apes and just part-time rational? Evidently, the elasticity/plasticity of our mental/cognitive lives establishes in such a way that we may be taught, believe, or defend (tooth and nail) false dogmas and fictional stories. Incoherence and incorrigibility make irrational bedfellows in our heads.

Or is Christianity a special case? — frank

Heck no. :)

Seems clear enough that Trump is eroding credibility/trust that will impact Americans in the future.

In Latest Attack on Media, Trump Sues Wall Street Journal Over Epstein Report (— Jessica Corbett · Common Dreams · Jul 18, 2025)

The baby-rants are part of the circus.

Who stands to benefit?

I'm guessing the US is a couple of Trump'ers shorter. Russia is a cannon-fodder richer.

American Joins Russian Army For Citizenship, Gets A Big Surprise Instead
^{— Ed Scarce · Crooks and Liars · Jul 15, 2025}

Specifically, DeAnna referenced LGBT material being taught to their children in schools as motivation for moving out of the US.

American Father and Vlogger Tricked Into Front Line Combat by Russia
^{— Nick Pehlman · Kyiv Post · Jul 15, 2025}

Unfortunately, he feels like he is being thrown to the wolves right now, and he is kind of having to lean on faith. — DeAnna Huffman

Importing North Korean soldiers, sending non-soldiers to war, ..., maybe they are running low.

Trying the logic again...

How about you persuade me that the universe revolves around the earth? — NOS4A2

Suppose that @Michael persuaded you thereof, then what would that show?
That words can persuade, sometimes they do, not that they always do.

Suppose that @Michael didn't persuade you thereof, then what would that show?
That words sometimes don't persuade, they don't always, not that they never do.

Are you looking for any of those implications perchance...?
It seems like you instead demand proof that there are words that will persuade you of whatever.

By the way, what'd you make of my comment yesterday (if anything)?

A farce:

BREAKING NEWS: Trump Asked Point Blank If Bondi Told Him His Name Appears In Epstein Files
^{— Forbes Breaking News · Jul 15, 2025 · 1m:29s}

Exclusive: NIH suspends dozens of pathogen studies over ‘gain-of-function’ concerns
^{— Jon Cohen, Jocelyn Kaiser · ScienceInsider, Science/AAAS · Jul 11, 2025}

If we won't learn, we deserve what's comin', right? :)

Back to the Future: Lessons Learned From the 1918 Influenza Pandemic
^{— Kirsty R Short, Katherine Kedzierska, Carolien E van de Sandt · Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology · Sep 10, 2018}

Vague, unsupported, low quality arm waving. — T Clark

Odd. That ↑ comment looked like a (low-quality) hand-wave to me. :wink:

, one must hear/read the words from someone before one can (mis)understand them, yes?

FYI, contours of NATO polls in Ukraine by various sources:



Some related events in rough chronological order:

Budapest Memorandum: signed 1994 Dec 5 — violated 2014 Feb
Euromaidan: 2013 Nov 21 — 2014 Feb 22
Revolution of Dignity: 2014 Feb 18 — 2014 Feb 23
Little green men incursion: 2014 Feb
Russo-Ukrainian War: 2014 Feb —
Russian occupation of Crimea: 2014 Feb 27 —
Russian annexation of Crimea: 2014 Mar 18
Donbas War: 2014 Apr 12 — 2022 Feb 24
Ukrainian parliamentary election interference: 2014 Oct
Russia demands NATO roll back from East Europe and stay out of Ukraine: 2021 Dec 17
Special military operation: 2022 Feb 24 —

The Kremlin has been exemplary in giving Ukraine incentive to keep seeking NATO membership, however unlikely in the foreseeable future.

But you refuse to say what would falsify it. — NOS4A2

... because what you ask is illogical.

verified an existential claim — there is persuasion etc by words — which you then requested to falsify.

In general, the logic is more or less... Existential claims are verifiable and not falsifiable. Universal claims are falsifiable and not verifiable. Persuasion by words exists — a verified existential claim. All swans are white — a falsified universal claim.

On another note, did my word-effect reasoning work?

Three different, short accounts:

Two foreigners detained for displaying Nazi symbols in Pechersk, Kyiv, - police. PHOTOS — Olena Gulayeva · Censor.NET · Jul 8, 2025
^{Police detained two foreigners for demonstrating Nazi symbols in the capital's Pechersk district.}

Public display of Nazi symbols in Kyiv: police detained two men — Yevhen Ustimenko · UNN · Jul 8 2025
^{In Kyiv, police detained two foreigners, aged 25 and 27, for publicly displaying Nazi symbols.}

Two foreigners walked through the streets of Kiev with Nazi symbols — EADaily · Jul 9, 2025
^{In Kiev, two citizens were detained who walked through the capital of Ukraine with Nazi symbols — one of them was holding a flag with a swastika, the other was wearing a T-shirt with the banned Nazi emblem.}

Why would they parade a Ukrainian flag with unmistakable Nazi symbols on it?

How to deal with military buildups?

The threat of Russia's force in Ukraine
^{— Sava Jankovic, Volker Roeben · Journal on the Use of Force and International Law · Oct 23, 2024}

We have examples of both hostile buildups and otherwise. The Russian buildup starting in 2021 near Ukraine was preparation for the all-out 2022 invasion (main topic of the article). The Feb 2022 Belarusian buildup was a Russia-Belarus military exercise, and not itself directly offensive. The NATO buildup in Lithuania, Jul 2023, was a summit. ... Hostile intent was denied for the three examples (2021 was a lie).

non-routine, suspiciously timed, scaled up, intensified, geographically proximate, staged in the exact mode of a potential military clash, and easily attributable to a foreign policy message, the hostile intent is considered present and the demonstration of force manifest

The most problematic aspect remains the reaction to military threats, which may depend on the determination of a threat and its (un)lawfulness, geopolitical considerations, and the overall position one takes on threats.

Besides, anyone can claim defensive measures are provocations (if not offenses). Anyway, the international community failed Ukraine in 2014.

Another one bites the dust. Your mileage may vary on some of the content:

Inside the far-left media that, backed by Moscow, Damascus, and Tehran, attacks Israel
^{— Nicholas Potter · Jerusalem Post · Dec 12, 2024}
Germany says Russia using media platform Red to sow discontent
^{— Rachel More, Miranda Murray, Madeline Chambers · Reuters · Jul 2, 2025}
German authorities: Russia supported Islamist portal in Berlin (in Russian)
^{— Nikita Oshuev · Deutsche Welle · Jul 9, 2025}

Seems inconsistent for the Kremlin to operate against Israel bombing Gaza, while at the same time bombing Ukraine, but their aims are of a different nature, not about bombed victims.

An article regarding some history for the so inclined:

A Piece of Theater: West German–Arab–Israeli Relations Staged by Intelligence Services, 1955–1967
^{— Tilman Lüdke · International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence · Jun 4, 2025}

, does this stuff work?

1. a person can (often enough) understand words from another person
2. understanding another person's words is an effect
3. words can (often enough) have an effect

1. a person can misunderstand words from another person
2. misunderstanding another person's words is an effect
3. words can have an effect

, something's off here. By offering these wordy arguments, are you trying to show that words can't convince?

The only alternative is the intervention of a large scale international peace keeping force. But the international community is not stepping forward. — Punshhh

As far as I can tell, neither the Palestinians nor the Israelis want something like a UN peacekeeping force. :/ Palestinians give reasons like dignity or whatever, and, apparently, the Israelis just don't want any interference. Meanwhile, Hamas extremists roam, and Netanyahu levels Gaza more or less indiscriminately (which is also extreme), ... Dampening and observing peacekeepers would be great, though, but maybe that's just me.

and

You said “co-created”. That implies two sources of creation. I think that is accurate. — Fire Ologist

Irrespective of the self-and-other distinction (or divide), would you not say that these are all parts of the same world?

General hostilities in the region have come up before:

Researchers home in on origins of Russia’s Baltic GPS jamming (— Defense News · Jul 2, 2025)

Chances of bona fide talks would improve if they didn't keep up these mala fide acts.

there are regularities in nature — Moliere

:up:

I guess we can take "laws of nature" to be abstractions/generalizations of sets of observations. We call them "laws" while they're verified, unless/until they're falsified. Sometimes we use falsification to delineate their domain of applicability.

No regularities seem chaotic. It would be difficult to learn from evidence (or experiences, assuming there could be any).

Anyway, the warrant of the scientific methodologies means that such laws are descriptive, not pre/proscriptive. The model isn't the modeled. That may seem feeble, yet science remains the most successful epistemic endeavor in human history; without science this comment wouldn't be communicated worldwide over the Internet in near real-time using complex electronic devices, we wouldn't have GPS to help us navigate, suffering from cholera wouldn't be all-but eradicated, we wouldn't be exploring Mars with rovers, type 1 diabetes would be a death sentence, ...

The laws are around because we come up with them. Maybe we could say that nature lends itself to description because of embedded similarities?

time would stop for all practical purposes because nothing would happen — frank

There'd be motion of sorts (undecayable photons) and perhaps simmering micro-chaos (quantum mechanics).

A question that sometimes comes up, is whether this situation could make something else come about, say, could the expansion separate particles and anti-particles from the background micro-chaos, so they don't cancel back into the background microcosm? Or, it's all just idle speculation and conjecture. :)

Maybe the US / Israel are planning further offenses in the Middle East.

Trump administration redirects 20,000 anti-drone missiles meant for Ukraine, Zelensky confirms (— MDAA · Jun 9, 2025)

US won’t send some weapons pledged to Ukraine following a Pentagon review of military aid (— AP · Jul 1, 2025)
Ukraine voices concern as US halts some missile shipments (— Reuters · Jul 2, 2025)
US halts weapons shipments to Ukraine over fears stockpiles are too low (— Guardian · Jul 2, 2025)

Heat death is a common extrapolation of big bang theories.
Here, the distant future is ruled by the lonely photon in deep cold, where (other) particles have long since decayed and black holes have evaporated.
The universe doesn't end as such, but keeps fading away, entropy ever converging on zero or whatever background energy / quantum foam.

Appearances of Azerbaijan sending the Kremlin a message:

A Russian media outlet is raided in Azerbaijan’s capital as tensions rise between Moscow and Baku
^{— Aida Sultanova · AP · Jun 30, 2025}
Azerbaijan arrests journalists at Russian state outlet as tensions with Moscow rise
^{— Nailia Bagirova, Dmitry Antonov, Lucy Papachristou, Andrew Osborn, Ros Russell, Ron Popeski, Sandra Maler · Reuters · Jun 30, 2025}

NEXTA also reports arrests, allegedly "members of two organized crime groups suspected of drug trafficking, moving narcotics from Iran, and cyber fraud".

Naturally, Ukrainians are cheering. :)

Great News! “Senator” Thom Tillis will not be seeking reelection. — Donald J. Trump · Jun 29, 2025

By now, it's clearly about Trump versus non-loyalists.
What does that mean for the voters, though?
(I imagine their kids are watching, too.)

Hm Wonder what Trump will say (if anything) ...

Russia captures key lithium deposit in Ukraine in move that could impact US mineral deal (— New York Post · Jun 27, 2025)

I (still) find this puzzling. We're talking people's health, not their favorite toy store. Some people will listen to or trust the administration rather than much else, plus the crap will fuel all kinds of nonsense, and that makes the administration recklessly irresponsible.

Democrats challenged RFK Jr. on vaccines. Fireworks ensued. (— Carmen Paun, Kelly Hooper · POLITICO · Jun 24, 2025)

RFK Jr grilled on vaccine policies and healthcare fraud in bruising House hearing (— Joseph Gedeon · Guardian · Jun 24, 2025)

Schrier says RFK Jr. should be held responsible for 'every death from a vaccine-preventable illness' (— PBS · Jun 24, 2025 · 4m:48s)


I'd hold the administration accountable, not just RFK Jr. Ordinary trust in any administration is (further) eroded. US citizens aren't beneficiaries. It's not about us-versus-them or Democrats-against-Republicans.

The deNazification/demilitarization demands are about Ukraine (minus occupied areas). Dead end aggressor demands.

• the Kremlin repeatedly said that Kyiv is a Nazi rule, which is decidedly false
• Russia has seen regress (for decades), Ukraine is trying and has seen progress (for years)
• on investigation, Russia turns out more extremist/Nazi infected than Ukraine, some of which have been or are in Kremlin employ
• Russia brought Putin's authoritarianism, colonization, and Russification to Ukraine
• Ukraine has been and is attempting to shed the shackles of the dominating neighbor

Putin has raised his "one people" rhetoric often enough. Maybe he even believes it, and thinks it's relevant. The Kremlin's hostilities extend beyond Ukraine (including mala fide statements).

Russia demands NATO roll back from East Europe and stay out of Ukraine (— Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber, Tom Balmforth, Andrew Osborn, Vladimir Soldatkin, Maxim Rodionov, Robin Emmott, Joanna Plucinska, Natalia Zinets, Steve Holland, Trevor Hunnicutt, Mark Trevelyan, Timothy Heritage, Frances Kerry · Reuters · Dec 17, 2021)

Appeasement politics:
Miseram pacem vel bello bene mutari (117)
Nunuku-whenua (1835)
Fallen Hero (1935-1941)
"Peace for our time" (1938)
Why die for Danzig? (1939)
The Failures of Appeasement (2013)

Ukraine repeatedly told the Kremlin "No", and most of the world concurred. Ukraine became a sovereign nation in 1991, de jure and de facto. Changing that isn't up to the Kremlin including by their own law.

Trump told the truth, and then Zelensky said that this is absolutely out of the question because Crimea is part of Ukraine, according to the country's Constitution... Russia does not negotiate the integrity of its territory. Trump understands this. — Sergey Lavrov · Zvezda via Mariupol News · Apr 27, 2025

If we did what everybody here wants us to do, and that is come in and crush them with more sanctions, we probably lose our ability to talk to them about the ceasefire and then who’s talking to them? — Marco Rubio · POLITICO · Jun 25, 2025 (“them” is the Kremlin)

They don't have much further to talk about. It's their way or the highway. Or deterrence. But the negotiation table remains open, a phone call away. I guess Rubio thinks they can "crush them with more sanctions". DeCriminalizing Ukraine includes deKremlinizing Ukraine.

Anyway, the repetition gets tedious. Now some 600 pages.

The "breadbasket" of the old USSR, Europe and beyond:

New Report Reveals Russian Campaign to Cripple Ukraine’s Grain Trade and Economy
^{— Global Rights Compliance · May 21, 2025}

This adds to previous reports, going back three years or so ^{(2022, 2022, 2022, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2023, 2025, ongoing)}.
Land-grabbing and colonization attempts, theft, entitlement and destruction.
Part hybrid warfare, part other-than-war, illegal, organized and systematic at scale, in Europe.
The less assertive the world is, the more the Kremlin will do.

Not really what anyone wants to see I imagine, yet more or less a consequence of the Kremlin's actions.

Germany is building a big scary army (archived)
^{— The Economist · Jun 4, 2025}

I'm not sure if these bits and pieces were posted before, but, anyway ...

"As to NATO enlargement, we have no concerns regarding the security of the Russian Federation."
— Putin, 2004 · via Die Zeit · via SAGE

"Crimea is a part of the Ukrainian state, and we cannot interfere in the internal affairs of another country. We must be aware of this."
— Putin, 2006 · via the Kremlin

"Crimea is not a disputed territory. There has been no ethnic conflict there, unlike the conflict between South Ossetia and Georgia."
"I think questions about such goals for Russia have provocative undertones."
— Putin, 2008 · TV interview via RFE/RL

"Donbas is certainly Russian-speaking, but there was no organised separatism in Donbas before 2014. It's not a region that had organised separatist aspirations before that."
— Huseyn Aliyev, 2024 · via France 24

... all part of the story.

Another observation:

Large, regionally variable shifts in diatom and dinoflagellate biomass in the North Atlantic over six decades
^{— Crispin M Mutshinda, Zoe V Finkel, Andrew J Irwin · PLoS One · Jun 4, 2025}

A couple of percent fall in plankton a year in the North Atlantic.
Plankton is part of larger food chains and plays a role in capturing carbon dioxide.

4. Donald Trump wants ... a US civil war ... — boethius

Isn't it more that the Trumpets (or many of them) want a cultural revolution?

RIP @Vera Mont :flower: You'll be missed

, yep could be. I'm guessing they don't want to see the Iranian regime fall, though.

Russia warns US against 'military intervention' in Iran-Israel war
^{— France 24, AFP · Jun 19, 2025}

Putin condemned Israeli attacks on Iran ... Meanwhile in Ukraine :brow:

A growing number of Iranians and pro-Iran people have been calling the Kremlin names (e.g. untrustworthy, traitor, useless), due to not helping. Maybe their warning is partly related to that.

If the Iranian theocracy falls, the Kremlin could be impacted: some drone supply, oil/money laundering lifeline (revenue), diplomatic shield, some satellite + intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance infrastructure, strategic outpost-foothold in the Middle East.

EDIT: added some potential impact to the Kremlin

Russian strikes kill 12 across Ukraine as G7 summit begins
^{— Marcel Gascón · EFE · Jun 17, 2025}

The Kremlin sending a message?

Report for Tuesday, June 17, 2025
^{— New York Times, Politico, Bloomberg, Reuters via The Cipher Brief · Jun 17, 2025}

Trump Renews Embrace of Putin Amid Ongoing Rift With Allies

Trump hints at no more US sanctions on Russia at G7 summit

Trump administration disbands group focused on pressuring Russia, sources say

Russia says U.S. has canceled next round of talks on easing tensions

Trump :up: s Putin and Netanyahu.

Innovation and testing grounds for tomorrow's warfare?

U.S. Support for Ukraine Would be Cheap at Twice the Price
^{— Doug Beck, Nate Fick · The Cipher Brief · Jun 11, 2025}

Would it be fair to say that duration is what all change has in common? And that some changes are simultaneous?
So, putting change first, i.e. going by change then trying to work out time.
Kind of rudimentary I suppose.

If so, then it might be possible to formalize duration as a metric, a positive number, and simultaneity as a relation, reflexive, symmetric, not transitive.
(Non-transitive because two simultaneous changes need not have the same duration, but I'm just throwing it out there.)

Time as an abstract could then be the pair — metric and relation — operating on change.
Don't know if that works, but it seems fairly close to what we do.

Finland accuses senior crew of Russia-linked vessel in damage of undersea power cable in Baltic Sea
^{— AP · Jun 14, 2025}

Their shadow fleet needs more attention.

RFK Jr. removes all members of CDC panel advising U.S. on vaccines
^{— Annika Kim Constantino · CNBC · Jun 9, 2025}
RFK Jr. replaced everyone on the CDC's vaccine panel. Here's why that matters
^{— Maria Godoy · npr · Jun 13, 2025}

More degradation. Will it cost lives? If so, then what?

Hegseth says the Pentagon has contingency plans to invade Greenland if necessary
^{— Lolita C Baldor, Tara Copp, David Klepper · AP · Jun 12, 2025}

Are they afraid that Greenland might be taken over by Russia or China?