Attempting to figure out China's stance towards Russia isn't the easiest. Various experts have various takes. (Shen Dingli goes as far as saying Russia will lose out in Ukraine by the way.) China's activities continue to suggest walking a cautious line that could go this or that way at a moment's notice.

Xi weighs up support for Putin after rebellion
^{— Amy Hawkins · The Guardian · Jun 26, 2023}
China unlikely to be worried by ‘weaker Putin’ post Wagner revolt
^{— Erin Hale · Al Jazeera · Jun 29, 2023}
Analysis-China's Ukraine peace talks gambit shows shifts amid hard realities
^{— Laurie Chen, Martin Quin Pollard, Greg Torode, William Mallard · Reuters · Aug 5, 2023}

Perceived common adversaries seem the main driver. After that, who knows. A Russian dependency on (or debt to) China could still be a factor. Pseudo-commitment?

What to expect from China these days in this respect?


Russia Invades Ukraine: A Timeline of the Crisis
^{— Madeline Fitzgerald, Elliott Davis Jr · US News · Jul 25, 2023}

Looks like Bayer agrees with @boethius, sort of, in a way, partially...

It's time for Zelensky to get tough with Biden - opinion
^{— Alexei Bayer · The Jerusalem Post · Aug 6, 2023}

Bayer suggests an opportunist angle/pressure, though it may not be quite that simple. There are all kinds of discussions back-and-forth, not just Biden making a phonecall and that's that. Maybe old Joe wouldn't take it that well either, who knows.

You might get it your way @Isaac:

Most say Congress should not authorize more funding for Ukraine: survey
^{— Julia Shapero · The Hill · Aug 4, 2023}

At least as far as US Republicans (and the Kremlin) are concerned.

Putin's Russia demonstrably instigates lengthy destabilization and land-grabbing campaigns. By assimilating a fifth of Ukraine, those folk ^{(Aug 2, 2023, Aug 4, 2023)} are auto-enrolled in such efforts.

910 of 58,000 Belarusian citizens, and 254 of 16,000 Russian citizens, were given a month to leave Lithuania or can appeal the decision in court:

Lithuania declares more than 1,000 Belarusians and Russians to be national security risks
^{— Liudas Dapkus, Yuras Karmanau · AP · Aug 4, 2023}

Lithuania borders Latvia (close ally), Belarus, Poland, Kaliningrad (Russian). Lithuania and Poland ramp up security with respect to Russia and Belarus.

The border/country-free world won't happen this year, @Isaac. I suppose Schengen was one small move in that direction. With leaders like the current Kremlin around, it seems less likely to form.

Forced Passportization in Russia-Occupied Areas of Ukraine
^{— Yale Humanitarian Research Lab · Aug 2, 2023}

Second, Russia’s occupation officials have imposed de facto restrictions on those without Russian citizenship that make it impossible to live in Russia-occupied areas without accepting a passport. These include denial of medical services, social benefits, the ability to drive and to work, and overt threats of violence and intimidation.
These efforts create a series of ultimatums for residents of occupied areas of Ukraine who did not choose to move to Russia, but rather saw Russia impose its control on them. The incrementally added restrictions on residents without Russian citizenship make it increasingly difficult for them to meet basic needs for, among other things, shelter, food, employment, and medicine. — Executive Summary

The Yale link above lists some of the Kremlin's law moves. Incidentally, straightforward land-grabbing citizen-converting imperialism. And sham.

Law Adopted that will Detain or Deport Residents Without Russian Passports
Starting July 2024, residents without Russian citizenship will be considered “foreigners” or “stateless”
Presidential Decree № 307 — Apr 27, 2023

2022 annexation referendums in Russian-occupied Ukraine
^{— Wikipedia}

, at least the greenery can't complain about CO₂ levels.

Being among generations where future generations say "They knew, and didn't do anything" isn't the best legacy...

...
Accident? (случайно) Incompetence? Not knowing there's a bit of tension at the moment?
Provocation? Russians have done some of that lately anyway.
Probing? Testing? If so, then they got some responses (though no Polish/NATO air appearance).

Who knows; I'm not sure it's easy to determine.

There have been some activities to do with Poland. Targeted by the Kremlin: exposed, made public (embarrassment?), crɘeǝpy crap, what's next?

Attacking Poland directly involves NATO directly; I doubt they'd want that (despite the tiptoeing around them).

, nah, we = voters

, well, personally, I've been increasingly worried about the environment since ehh the 1980s I think. :) (paralyzing panic doesn't help though)

, right.

By the way, if mercenaries (not a national army) attack Poland in some way, can NATO then identify a nation to hold accountable? I guess so.

Wagner Attack On Poland Will Be Treated As Russian Attack On NATO: US Ambassador To UN
^{— Parth Satam · The EurAsian Times · Aug 1, 2023}

Well, if they were deployed from Belarus (who hasn't exactly kept their presence/status a secret)...

Apart from spying and destabilization and such efforts, it seems unlikely that Belarus (or Russia) would attack Poland.

I suppose that's one way to snag up cannon fodder:

Russia is forcing Ukrainians from occupied Crimea and Donbas to fight in its invasion of Ukraine
^{— Halya Coynash · Human Rights in Ukraine · Mar 7, 2022}
Russia turns to Donbas conscripts to fill front lines
^{— Polina Ivanova · Financial Times · Jun 11, 2022}
Russia Pressing Men In Occupied Areas Of Ukraine Into Fight Against Ukrainian Forces
^{— RFE/RL · Sep 26, 2022}
Russia "officially" annexes Donbas on Sep 30, 2022
^{— Wikipedia}
Russia engaged in extensive effort to force Ukrainians in Russian-occupied territories to accept Russian citizenship, report says
^{— Jennifer Hansler · CNN · Aug 2, 2023}

Furthermore, unfortunate people are trapped between Russian and Ukrainian law:

Russia forced them to fight. Ukraine tried them for treason
^{— Kateryna Farbar · openDemocracy · Nov 16, 2022}

I'm guessing (conjecture on my part) that Ukraine / Ukrainian law is more amenable to un-trap those people. Ukraine also has an interest in acceptance into organizations that would look favorable on such amendments. Maybe the resident legal experts know something?

Poland busts another Russian spy network, this time around unveiling plans to attack Ukraine-bound trains. Lukashenko + Putin "mention" that Wagner would like to hit Poland (on more than one occasion). Wagner mercs train close to Polish border; Poland + Baltics nervous. Poland enacts controversial law to deal with Russian influence. Belarusian choppers enter Poland airspace. Russia posts about Poland taking over Western Ukraine. EU ready to close Belarus borders.

There's more to the story of course, yet seems to follow an old playbook.

Nyberg writes up some political history:

Russia, Ukraine, and Poland: The End of a Tragic Triangle
^{— René Nyberg · Carnegie · Jul 28, 2023}

(... also check the crɘeǝpy TASS post above)

Bit of a contrast in terms of Russia here:

Niger coup (reports from Jul 31, 2023): CNN, Forbes (Russian flags)
Georgian protests (reports from Aug 1, 2023): BBC, Business Insider (simmering Kremlin-hate)

Maybe they should get together? :D

Anyway, while going over all this...stuff, I sure hope Putin hasn't had more warring in mind all along.

Hard at work to "recruit" here:

Russia Takes Its Ukraine Information War Into Video Games
^{— Steven Lee Myers, Steven Lee Myers · The New York Times · Jul 30, 2023}
Minecraft and Roblox are being used to spread Russian propaganda to kids
^{— Michael Beckwith · Metro News · Jul 31, 2023}
Russian anti-Ukrainian propaganda had made its way into ‘Minecraft’
^{— news.com.au · Aug 2, 2023 · 2m:24s}

I predict it'll work, though to a limited extent.

Dubbed "the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly":

High sea surface temperature in North Atlantic
^{— Arctic News · Apr 22, 2023}

Rising temperatures threaten to trigger massive loss of sea ice (and loss of albedo) and eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Over the next few years, feedbacks threaten to start kicking in with increased ferocity and important tipping points threaten to get crossed, such as the latent heat tipping point and the seafloor methane tipping point.

Record-breaking North Atlantic Ocean temperatures contribute to extreme marine heatwaves
^{— Copernicus · Jul 6, 2023}

While the causes of the anomalous warmth across the northeastern Atlantic are still a matter of research, there are already several contributing factors to take into consideration. These include atmospheric circulation, air pollution and climate change trends.

Hmm... As an aside, I've come across a few that have mentioned they "game the system" for own gain (including on the forum), though on a much smaller scale (I assume). They good, those others bad...?


(my emphasis)

None of those are things we can do. That's the point. they're all things government can do.

Things we can do; — Isaac

4. vote differently (known as democracy :wink:)

But some folks work hard to vilify and stigmatize the word "socialism" and anything they can associate with that. One place to start, to put up a fight? :fire: (This wouldn't amount to vilifying and stigmatizing the word "capitalism" and anything that might be associated with that.)

A resident of the Sumy region kept a T-80 trophy tank of the occupiers in his yard for more than a year :shrug:
The Prosecutor's Office transferred the tank to the needs of the Armed Forces. — Bratchuk Sergey · Jul 30, 2023

Probably need a driver's license for those things. :D


"According to Russia's Duma Defense Committee ..."

Vladimir Putin Putting Together Network of Private Armies All Over Russia
^{— Veuer via Dailymotion · Jul 31, 2023 · 1m:12s}

... Hmm.


The recent bombings on the Russian side of the border, including Moscow, seem unlikely to have much direct impact on the war. Though, after a year of bombing destruction killing throughout the Ukrainian side ("Sitting ducks with some repellent"), maybe it shouldn't come as a surprise. They're not using gear supplied directly by NATO members, and are reportedly working with Rheinmetall, Baykar, and others to set up production in Ukraine. Ukraine → Moscow is a fair distance (say, ≈ 850 km). Were the drones launched closer by? What were they (e.g. "homemade", snagged Iranian drones, something else)?

Elon Musk refused Ukraine's request for Starlink that would help it attack Russian ships with exploding sea drones, report says
^{— Sinéad Baker · Business Insider · Jul 31, 2023}

Climate is less interesting because experts don't really disagree. — Isaac

Depends on what part. What, if anything, can/should be done is less clear.

The ongoing grain thing ...

Russia has not offered UN World Food Programme free grain
^{— Michelle Nichols, Doina Chiacu, Leslie Adler · Reuters · Jul 28, 2023}
Russian missile attacks leave few options for Ukrainian farmers looking to export grain
^{— Hanna Arhirova, Volodymyr Yurchuk, Courtney Bonnell · AP · Jul 30, 2023}

(FYI, Agroprosperis' homepage is in Ukrainian; there's a bit of information on wikipedia and elsewhere)

As if on cue, the Kremlin unveiled naval expansion St Petersburg.

Regress. :/ The Kremlin is increasingly hard to excuse here.

Donbas and Crimea — Isaac

Crimea — Isaac

Crimea — Isaac

We have lots more to go by (Putin's Russia itself, Chechnya, Georgia, trajectories and moves, regress and improvement), but I guess this stuff has already come up a few times in the thread. The Ukrainians (and the UN) said "No". The Kremlin might well have worsened life for Russians (at large), except, perhaps, for the Putinistas.


Kim Jong Un delivers an ultimatum to South Korea (including via whatever representatives): we'll be taking over the Gyeonggi and Gangwon provinces and everything north thereof, as per the map you received. In case of any non-compliance, we start nuking. Non-negotiable.

^{(The exact areas somewhat arbitrarily chosen. Surely an example of insanity at the helm, however unrealistic the scenario may be. There are some 50 million people in South Korea, a fifth of them in Seoul.)}

What to do?

1. Quick, pre-emptive strike.
2. Everyone on full readiness, anti-air systems, everything, pronto.
3. Broadcast surrender. Border guards (and others) stand down.
4. Don't do anything. Perhaps hope it's an organized hoax.

The military security situation in the area of the Korean peninsula, which has undergone a fundamental change due to the reckless military moves of the U.S. and its followers, more clearly indicates what mission the nuclear weapons of [North Korea] should carry out. I remind the U.S. military of the fact that the ever-increasing visibility of the deployment of the strategic nuclear submarine and other strategic assets may fall under the conditions of the use of nuclear weapons specified in the [North Korean] law on the nuclear force policy. — Kang Sun Nam (via The Hill · Jul 20, 2023)

I'll go with 2. Maybe I should have made it into a poll. Nah.

I'm wondering if there is a law against discussing/criticizing this:

Russian investigators call children as witnesses against their mother accused of discrediting army
^{— AP · Jul 29, 2023}

For that matter, is there a law against discussing/criticizing those war censorship laws?
Presumably they can't be used to enforce themselves.

Can anyone semi-informed imagine who might replace Putin, and what policy changes would result? Or am I only dreaming? — unenlightened

There are a few marginally better/worse in terms of democracy and transparency. Someone like Yashin might well give democracy a chance. Putin has consolidated a number of power positions, making such moves challenging, though.

The Economist has a "City liveability index"; Kyiv dropped close to the bottom in Mar 2023:



There seems to be a recognizable geographical distribution:

I'm darkly fascinated by this new trend for absolute certainty in the mainstream opinion. Ukraine, Covid, ... both shared this odd feature that even though solidly qualified experts in the respective fields disagreed, the lay populace were utterly convinced that only one side were right and the other were little short of murderers. — Isaac

Have you tried climate? Abortion? ... ← Some here considered little short of potential genociders? :gasp:
(hm "absolute certainty", more rhetoramble?)
The Ukraine war isn't quite as amenable to scientific inquiry anyway.

Angry Russia refuses to speak at UN meeting on its attacks on Ukraine’s key port city of Odesa
^{— Edith M Lederer · AP · Jul 27, 2023}

Speaking of angry: Jul 25, 2023.

Isolated Putin tries to shore up African support as Kremlin seethes over poor summit turnout
^{— Radina Gigova, Anna Chernova, Sophie Tanno, Nimi Princewill · CNN · Jul 27, 2023}

Didn't go all that well the last time either: Jun 18, 2023.
Accumulating "alternate world" type stuff? (Jul 11, 2023, Jun 16, 2023, Mar 4, 2023)

Putin woos African leaders at a summit in Russia with promises of expanding trade and other ties
^{— Vladimir Isachenkov, Cara Anna · AP · Jul 28, 2023}

Happy about free grain. Need more.

Umland opines

We’re going to need that Ukraine no-fly zone after all
^{— Andreas Umland · The Hill · Jul 27, 2023}

mentioning

• food production + export
• nuclear facilities
• civilian infra, bombings of noncombatants
• reconstruction

while restricting no-flight to those that are unmanned (unauthorized).
Going half the way?
Some of this stuff has come up in the thread before.

A thought experiment, if you will, turning the heat slightly up.

Suppose some mutations occur that are about as contagious/transmissible as the Omicron variant, about as dangerous as SARS-CoV-1 (the 2003 outbreak), where symptoms appear after 4-5 weeks, though some 25-50% turn out asymptomatic.

While this stuff remains unknown in the thought experiment, at first at least, what might we reasonably expect?

We have some data (including historical and also new) regarding propagation, medical establishments, medicine industries, general populace reactions, (emerging) policies, etc. These would be among the things where we could expect something.

I'm thinking the scenario is realistic enough, so, what might we expect, and how best to tackle such a situation (with partial/gradual knowledge along the way)? Say, what's a(n) (un)favored response/policy?

Personally, I wouldn't expect a tenth of the population wiped out, nor "1984". Tackling...not quite sure. (Looking to WHO guidelines is a starting point.)

EDITORIAL: Preparing for the next pandemic
^{— Toronto Sun · Jul 27, 2023}

↑ has comments

From a Wagner commander, otherwise unverified (translation by google):

In total, 78,000 fighters of the PMC Wagner went to the Ukrainian mission. Of these, 49,000 were prisoners from the camps. At the time of the capture of Bakhmut (May 20), 22,000 soldiers were killed, 40,000 were wounded. — Unloading Wagner · Jul 19, 2023

NATO says it's boosting Black Sea surveillance, condemns Russian grain deal exit
^{— Andrew Gray, Ron Popeski, William Maclean · Reuters · Jul 26, 2023}

Allies and Ukraine strongly condemned Russia's decision to withdraw from the Black Sea grain deal and its deliberate attempts to stop Ukraine's agricultural exports on which hundreds of millions of people worldwide depend. NATO and Allies are stepping up surveillance and reconnaissance in the Black Sea region, including with maritime patrol aircraft and drones. Allies noted that Russia's new warning area in the Black Sea, within Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone, has created new risks for miscalculation and escalation, as well as serious impediments to freedom of navigation.

Ukrainian port cities are "the latest casualities in this senseless, brutal war", ASG Khiari tells Security Council in briefing on Ukraine
^{— Mohamed Khaled Khiari · UN · Jul 26, 2023}
UN official says latest Russian attacks on Ukraine ‘signal a calamitous turn’
^{— Tara Suter, AP · The Hill · Jul 26, 2023}

These attacks targeting Ukraine’s grain export facilities, similarly to all attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure, are unacceptable and must stop immediately. I must emphasize that attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure may constitute a violation of international humanitarian law. We have now seen disturbing reports of further Russian strikes against port infrastructure, including grain storage facilities, in Reni and Izmail ports on the Danube River – a key route for shipment of Ukrainian grain, not far from Ukraine’s borders with Moldova and Romania. Deliberately targeting infrastructure that facilitates the export of food to the rest of the world could be life-threatening to millions of people who need access to affordable food. In the wake of Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Initiative, these latest attacks signal a calamitous turn for Ukrainians and the world. — Mohamed Khaled Khiari (UN)

Maybe they are "insane".
, it's not just about "freedom to vote". (= rhetoramble (again))

(I'll add some observations that are peripheral to the opening post, please let me know or remove if it veers too far off topic.)

A kind of mass hysteria:

Benny Hinn - Raw Anointing of the Spirit (1)
^{— Apr 8, 2010 · 10m:24s}
Kenneth Hagin Explosion In The Holy Ghost
^{— Jun 20, 2023 · 1m}
One Of The Most Powerful Move Of God In History - Rodney Howard-Browne & Németh Sándor
^{— Jul 19, 2023 · 5m:7s}

By and large harmless, though I find employing that to indoctrinate children deplorable.

Another kind of mass hysteria (also some history):

Sweden Quran burning: Protesters storm embassy in Baghdad
^{— Alys Davies · BBC · Jun 29, 2023}
Hundreds attempt to storm Baghdad’s Green Zone over Quran burning
^{— Al Jazeera · Jul 22, 2023}

These provocations are insensitive, triggering the sensitive like so is unmannerly rude — and outlawing it has no place in civilized society. Say, if some society has a culture and tradition of biting satire, then it's not up to someone else to impede on that. Likewize for critique of religions.

'Not everything that is legal is ethical': Josep Borrell condemns Quran burning and religious hatred
^{— Jorge Liboreiro · Euronews · Jul 26, 2023}

Hmm Stories that won't go away:

Burning of Qur’an in Stockholm funded by journalist with Kremlin ties
^{— Jennifer Rankin · The Guardian · Jan 27, 2023}
BRIEF: dr·dk reports that a Quran burning inspired Russian intelligence to stage fake protests
^{— various · May 7, 2023}
Sweden says it's target of Russia-backed disinformation over NATO, Koran burnings
^{— Simon Johnson, Johan Ahlander, William Maclean · Reuters · Jul 26, 2023}

Secretly using the sensitive to trigger anger/violence? Nothing new I guess.

Religions have impacts on others and therefore warrant some attention.

How to deal with an untrustworthy insane party that rules an armed country? Looks like it's not just Ukraine that has a problem here. Criminals and insane folks are sometimes restrained in some way. Really, what will they do next? Whatever comes to pass, I'm sure someone will be (are) taking notes.

So the US are sending 75 billion to Yemen too? Good news. — Isaac

No Sudan Somalia CAR Afghanistan ...? :/

More on the grain thing...

Analysis: Russia's Danube attacks tighten noose on Ukraine's grain sector
^{— Max Hunder, Jonathan Saul, Olena Harmash, Sybille de La Hamaide, Tom Balmforth, William Maclean · Reuters · Jul 25, 2023}
Anger grows in Ukraine’s port city of Odesa after Russian bombardment hits beloved historic sites
^{— Hanna Arhirova, Lori Hinnant · AP · Jul 25, 2023}

Hate and talks usually don't mix well. :/ The Kremlin isn't into talks anyway, just reciting demands.
Going to take some efforts to trust the Kremlin (with much of anything). The current folks anyway.

It's always about balance. Hundreds of thousands of lives, millions more at risk, for the sake of a few decimal place improvements on the human freedom measure is not balance, it's insanity. — Isaac

... instigated + ordered by the Kremlin. Do we have an insane government on our hands? :/
I guess, say, Litvinenko = a decimal point. (= rhetorical ramble)
How will the border/country-free world come about anyway?

Can anyone semi-informed imagine who might replace Putin, and what policy changes would result? Or am I only dreaming? — unenlightened

Another neighbor, Finland, doesn't seem to have had much impact against Putin, though. Why is that? — Jul 23, 2023

Some news briefs:

The Olenivka incident...

UN says Ukrainian POWs in Donetsk not killed by rocket, as Russia claimed
^{— Reuters · Jul 25, 2023}

The UN rights body, which said it has conducted extensive interviews with survivors and analyzed additional information, added that the incident "was not caused by a HIMARS rocket."

"Need more meat"...?

Russian lawmakers extend age limit for compulsory military draft
^{— AP · Jul 25, 2023}

Another one bites the dust...

Russia declares independent TV channel 'undesirable,' banning it from country
^{— AP via ABC · Jul 25, 2023}

It was removed from Russian cable TV systems in 2014 after conducting a controversial poll of whether viewers thought the Soviet Union should have surrendered in the World War II siege of Leningrad in order to save civilian lives.

I'm kind of thinking Putin outdoes John Gotti rather well, maybe even in outfit. :D

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark A. Milley Hold Press Conference Following Virtual Ukraine Defense Contact Group Meeting
^{— U.S. Department of Defense · Jul 18, 2023}
Inside a secret bunker, hear what soldier noticed about Russian soldiers
^{— Alex Marquardt · CNN · Jul 20, 2023 · 3m:28s}

Lots of soldiers in the Crimea area, rumors will have them gathering north of Kyiv as well.

Reportedly there are a few heavily mined Russian lines by now, perhaps put up when Wagner mercs (and newbies) were being sent to Bakhmut.



Might be worth noting how many defensive arms Ukraine has received, e.g. to take down kamikaze drones, etc. There's been much tiptoeing around Putin's Russia (hence they walk all over things like the grain stuff). Maybe the capable should start seriously talking about implementing a no-fly zone in Ukrainian airspace, iff the Ukrainian government wishes it.

Sending F-16s to Ukraine in fight against Russia would take 'months and months': Blinken
^{— Tal Axelrod · ABC · Jul 23, 2023}
A Russian fighter jet fired flares at a US drone over Syria and damaged it, the US military says
^{— Lolita C Baldor, Tara Copp · AP · Jul 25, 2023}

Then (if their government says so), any missiles violating that, warrants taking out the source of launch. Much like whatever other nation, here implemented by whatever coalition agreeing to help Ukraine. Once the Ukrainian skies are better cleared of offenders, civilians will be safer, the situation different, and more assessments warranted. That is, no tiptoeing inside Ukrainian airspace (if they want it so). If nothing else, that seems reasonable (to me).

if Putin's fears are even half justified, we can expect a likewise positive effect on pressure for change in Russia (including any stolen territories) from a free and prospering Ukraine next door — Isaac

Sure, if Ukraine was to fare well free from the Kremlin, and Russians observe, then that might help free the Kremlin from Putinistas. Asked earlier (I gave it some thought, but figured someone better informed might take it up):

Can anyone semi-informed imagine who might replace Putin, and what policy changes would result? Or am I only dreaming? — unenlightened

Another neighbor, Finland, doesn't seem to have had much impact against Putin, though. Why is that?

Folks, those numbers haven't been independent.

Yes, Ukraine has been wrestling to shed the regressing shadow of the dominant neighbor for a bit. Some progress has been made, and more pending (barring PTSD). — Jul 22, 2023

The protests were also about some of the elements those numbers are derived from.

They're more independent now, as the two countries have gone in different directions, despite the Kremlin's attempts otherwise, but they share much past, politics, overlapping culture, whatever it all is.

The Ukrainians somehow managed to create a momentum of change, which Putin + team ain't too happy about (irredentism has also come up).

There was a time, maybe three or so decades ago, when Russia seemed to head in a better direction, but that ended. :/ And now ...

Warring — the Kremlin invades + bombs Ukraine
Response — multinational political and defense action — Jul 22, 2023

Putin + team probably wouldn't be too happy about Belarus changing towards democracy, transparency, and all that (perhaps even seeking NATO membership :gasp:), either.

Just scrolled by ... :D

Encourage more war - "Putin is weakening and could be overthrown any minute, just a few more bombs and we'll be there."

Encourage political action instead of war - "Putin is strong, it would take many decades to overthrow him" — Isaac

↓ observations moreso than narrative (e.g. to proceed from)

Warring — the Kremlin invades + bombs Ukraine

Response — multinational political and defense action

^{(the "bombs" part includes food export by the way, "warring" party can make peace break out anytime, without much fear of invasion at that; the "response" part isn't exclusive-either-or like so, also repeated UN and Ukraine terms)}

Yes, Ukraine has been wrestling to shed the regressing shadow of the dominant neighbor for a bit. Some progress has been made, and more pending (barring PTSD).

Incidentally, there are some peripherals related to varying extents, e.g. Sweden, Armenia-Azerbaijan, North Korea, Germany, Poland.

↑ much already brought up earlier

Nothing further regarding this earlier comment?

The Kremlin really doesn't like Odesa.

Odesa, other Ukrainian port cities bombarded by Russia for 3rd consecutive night
^{— Samya Kullab · AP via PBS · Jul 19, 2023}

Ruining grain export and "retaliation" all in one?

Russia bombards Ukraine ports, threatens ships, jolting world grain markets
^{— Viktoria Lakezina, Vitalii Hnidyi, Peter Graff, Angus MacSwan · Reuters via MSN · Jul 20, 2023}

The aggressor is deliberately hitting the port infrastructure - administrative and residential buildings nearby were damaged, also the consulate of the People's Republic of China. — Oleh Kiper

Russian attacks kill one in north Ukraine, hit grain terminals in south
^{— Anna Pruchnicka, Kim Coghill, Timothy Heritage · Reuters · Jul 21, 2023}

Kiper said Russia had attacked with Kalibr cruise missiles that were fired from the Black Sea at low altitude to bypass air defence systems.

Not sure how, say, China can justify supporting this crap.

Yes. [...] — Isaac

OK, this goes well beyond any particular troubles in the world, and (I think) also answers

could use (or needs) some fleshing out — jorndoe

i.e. such a "border/country free world" would go towards

that no one cares which side of the border they're on — Isaac

except doesn't answer how such a world might/would come about.

EDIT: more explicit

removing the leader of a country and replacing him with a more egalitarian one [...] pursue (with the billions invested currently in war) replacing him with a better leader — Isaac

Yaay a suggestion, though it could use (or needs) some fleshing out.

By the way ...

so that no one cares which side of the border they're on — Isaac

Is this related to the "border/country free world" thing from earlier in the thread?

Continuation of earlier comments:

Russia to deem Ukraine-bound ships 'potential carriers of military cargo' from Wednesday eve
^{— Felix Light, Peter Graff · The Reuters · Jul 19, 2023}

Russia was also declaring southeastern and northwestern parts of the Black Sea's international waters to be temporarily unsafe for navigation, it said, without giving details about the parts of the sea which would be affected.

Evidently, it's not just Ukraine (and a couple of other hotspots) that has (and/or might get) a Kremlin problem. Doing this to try forcing their demands, you have to wonder what's next.

Will be interesting to see, but I guess only time will tell:

Opinion: With their leader still missing, who will control Wagner forces in Africa?
^{— Joyce M Davis · CNN · Jul 18, 2023}

Wagner mercs have reportedly (AP, BBC) camped up in Belarus, maybe in the range of 600 so far.

Their forces in Africa can't quite become Russian army just like that, at least I don't think they can, yet the Kremlin likely wants to maintain that presence.

Either way, they'll be wanting a fat paycheck.

My own opinion leans towards the US not being very serious. They have too strong an interest in continuing this war. — Mikie

Weighing blame...?

Their military support is good for the powerful arms industry, and there’s apparently little willingness to engage in serious peace negotiations. — Mikie

More than one topic I guess. The military-industrial complex (not just US, by the way), politics (like democracy versus authoritarianism), all that.

What will happen to food prices? [...] — RogueAI

Don't know exactly. Some estimates have been reported, didn't look good. Maybe other transport routes can be devised. (Or maybe the freighters can be protected by the Chinese navy. :wink:)

, lately, no negotiations, just the Kremlin stating demands, refusal.
Incidentally perhaps, now the same for the grain thing.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have grown increasingly distrustful, hateful. (PTSD?)

Handing the Kremlin control of all of Ukraine('s grain + fertilizer + processing + transport) doesn't seem the best (Jun 16, 2023, Jul 1, 2023).

UN asks Putin to extend Black Sea grain deal in return for SWIFT access, sources say
^{— Michelle Nichols, Kanishka Singh, Mark Heinrich, Diane Craft · Reuters · Jul 12, 2023}
Russian Agricultural Bank may be connected to SWIFT for payments under grain deal — source
^{— TASS · Jul 13, 2023}
Russia halts participation in Black Sea grain deal: Kremlin
^{— Al Jazeera · Jul 17, 2023}
Russia says decision not to extend Black Sea grain deal is final
^{— Patrick Wintour, Shaun Walker · The Guardian · Jul 17, 2023}

UN EU UK officials pointed out the hostage-holding-alike politicization of the situation by the Kremlin.
(Don't know about others, but I expected a deal of sorts to come through like it had in the past.)

'Dumpster fire' doesn't begin to describe American politics and the buffoons you people put in the White House. — Tzeentch

If "you people" means US voters, then, sure, a few US politicians are clowns, including RFK Jr. Clowns electing clowns? Let's get real. Democracy has room for circus politic(ian)s (as it should). And could get...interesting when voters fall for it.

What to make of crap like this, coming from a prominent politician?

RFK Jr. says COVID may have been ‘ethnically targeted’ to spare Jews
^{— Jon Levine · New York Post · Jul 15, 2023}
Robert F. Kennedy Jr: COVID-19 was specifically engineered to avoid harming Jews
^{— The Jerusalem Post · Jul 15, 2023}
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. answers question about anti-vaccine views | Conversation with the Candidate
^{— WMUR-TV · Jun 23, 2023 · 7m:15s}

Granted, it reads a bit like something from a movie, sort of alarmist:

Record heatwaves sweep the world from US to Japan via Europe
^{— Agence France-Presse via Times of Malta · Jul 15, 2023}

Propaganda coming hard and fast now, to prepare for climate lockdowns — Bob Batterson

Yet, the report has numbers, evidence, tangibles, unlike the conspiracy theorist.