From a Wagner commander, otherwise unverified (translation by google):

In total, 78,000 fighters of the PMC Wagner went to the Ukrainian mission. Of these, 49,000 were prisoners from the camps. At the time of the capture of Bakhmut (May 20), 22,000 soldiers were killed, 40,000 were wounded. — Unloading Wagner · Jul 19, 2023

NATO says it's boosting Black Sea surveillance, condemns Russian grain deal exit
^{— Andrew Gray, Ron Popeski, William Maclean · Reuters · Jul 26, 2023}

Allies and Ukraine strongly condemned Russia's decision to withdraw from the Black Sea grain deal and its deliberate attempts to stop Ukraine's agricultural exports on which hundreds of millions of people worldwide depend. NATO and Allies are stepping up surveillance and reconnaissance in the Black Sea region, including with maritime patrol aircraft and drones. Allies noted that Russia's new warning area in the Black Sea, within Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone, has created new risks for miscalculation and escalation, as well as serious impediments to freedom of navigation.

Ukrainian port cities are "the latest casualities in this senseless, brutal war", ASG Khiari tells Security Council in briefing on Ukraine
^{— Mohamed Khaled Khiari · UN · Jul 26, 2023}
UN official says latest Russian attacks on Ukraine ‘signal a calamitous turn’
^{— Tara Suter, AP · The Hill · Jul 26, 2023}

These attacks targeting Ukraine’s grain export facilities, similarly to all attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure, are unacceptable and must stop immediately. I must emphasize that attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure may constitute a violation of international humanitarian law. We have now seen disturbing reports of further Russian strikes against port infrastructure, including grain storage facilities, in Reni and Izmail ports on the Danube River – a key route for shipment of Ukrainian grain, not far from Ukraine’s borders with Moldova and Romania. Deliberately targeting infrastructure that facilitates the export of food to the rest of the world could be life-threatening to millions of people who need access to affordable food. In the wake of Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Initiative, these latest attacks signal a calamitous turn for Ukrainians and the world. — Mohamed Khaled Khiari (UN)

Maybe they are "insane".
, it's not just about "freedom to vote". (= rhetoramble (again))

(I'll add some observations that are peripheral to the opening post, please let me know or remove if it veers too far off topic.)

A kind of mass hysteria:

Benny Hinn - Raw Anointing of the Spirit (1)
^{— Apr 8, 2010 · 10m:24s}
Kenneth Hagin Explosion In The Holy Ghost
^{— Jun 20, 2023 · 1m}
One Of The Most Powerful Move Of God In History - Rodney Howard-Browne & Németh Sándor
^{— Jul 19, 2023 · 5m:7s}

By and large harmless, though I find employing that to indoctrinate children deplorable.

Another kind of mass hysteria (also some history):

Sweden Quran burning: Protesters storm embassy in Baghdad
^{— Alys Davies · BBC · Jun 29, 2023}
Hundreds attempt to storm Baghdad’s Green Zone over Quran burning
^{— Al Jazeera · Jul 22, 2023}

These provocations are insensitive, triggering the sensitive like so is unmannerly rude — and outlawing it has no place in civilized society. Say, if some society has a culture and tradition of biting satire, then it's not up to someone else to impede on that. Likewize for critique of religions.

'Not everything that is legal is ethical': Josep Borrell condemns Quran burning and religious hatred
^{— Jorge Liboreiro · Euronews · Jul 26, 2023}

Hmm Stories that won't go away:

Burning of Qur’an in Stockholm funded by journalist with Kremlin ties
^{— Jennifer Rankin · The Guardian · Jan 27, 2023}
BRIEF: dr·dk reports that a Quran burning inspired Russian intelligence to stage fake protests
^{— various · May 7, 2023}
Sweden says it's target of Russia-backed disinformation over NATO, Koran burnings
^{— Simon Johnson, Johan Ahlander, William Maclean · Reuters · Jul 26, 2023}

Secretly using the sensitive to trigger anger/violence? Nothing new I guess.

Religions have impacts on others and therefore warrant some attention.

How to deal with an untrustworthy insane party that rules an armed country? Looks like it's not just Ukraine that has a problem here. Criminals and insane folks are sometimes restrained in some way. Really, what will they do next? Whatever comes to pass, I'm sure someone will be (are) taking notes.

So the US are sending 75 billion to Yemen too? Good news. — Isaac

No Sudan Somalia CAR Afghanistan ...? :/

More on the grain thing...

Analysis: Russia's Danube attacks tighten noose on Ukraine's grain sector
^{— Max Hunder, Jonathan Saul, Olena Harmash, Sybille de La Hamaide, Tom Balmforth, William Maclean · Reuters · Jul 25, 2023}
Anger grows in Ukraine’s port city of Odesa after Russian bombardment hits beloved historic sites
^{— Hanna Arhirova, Lori Hinnant · AP · Jul 25, 2023}

Hate and talks usually don't mix well. :/ The Kremlin isn't into talks anyway, just reciting demands.
Going to take some efforts to trust the Kremlin (with much of anything). The current folks anyway.

It's always about balance. Hundreds of thousands of lives, millions more at risk, for the sake of a few decimal place improvements on the human freedom measure is not balance, it's insanity. — Isaac

... instigated + ordered by the Kremlin. Do we have an insane government on our hands? :/
I guess, say, Litvinenko = a decimal point. (= rhetorical ramble)
How will the border/country-free world come about anyway?

Can anyone semi-informed imagine who might replace Putin, and what policy changes would result? Or am I only dreaming? — unenlightened

Another neighbor, Finland, doesn't seem to have had much impact against Putin, though. Why is that? — Jul 23, 2023

Some news briefs:

The Olenivka incident...

UN says Ukrainian POWs in Donetsk not killed by rocket, as Russia claimed
^{— Reuters · Jul 25, 2023}

The UN rights body, which said it has conducted extensive interviews with survivors and analyzed additional information, added that the incident "was not caused by a HIMARS rocket."

"Need more meat"...?

Russian lawmakers extend age limit for compulsory military draft
^{— AP · Jul 25, 2023}

Another one bites the dust...

Russia declares independent TV channel 'undesirable,' banning it from country
^{— AP via ABC · Jul 25, 2023}

It was removed from Russian cable TV systems in 2014 after conducting a controversial poll of whether viewers thought the Soviet Union should have surrendered in the World War II siege of Leningrad in order to save civilian lives.

I'm kind of thinking Putin outdoes John Gotti rather well, maybe even in outfit. :D

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark A. Milley Hold Press Conference Following Virtual Ukraine Defense Contact Group Meeting
^{— U.S. Department of Defense · Jul 18, 2023}
Inside a secret bunker, hear what soldier noticed about Russian soldiers
^{— Alex Marquardt · CNN · Jul 20, 2023 · 3m:28s}

Lots of soldiers in the Crimea area, rumors will have them gathering north of Kyiv as well.

Reportedly there are a few heavily mined Russian lines by now, perhaps put up when Wagner mercs (and newbies) were being sent to Bakhmut.



Might be worth noting how many defensive arms Ukraine has received, e.g. to take down kamikaze drones, etc. There's been much tiptoeing around Putin's Russia (hence they walk all over things like the grain stuff). Maybe the capable should start seriously talking about implementing a no-fly zone in Ukrainian airspace, iff the Ukrainian government wishes it.

Sending F-16s to Ukraine in fight against Russia would take 'months and months': Blinken
^{— Tal Axelrod · ABC · Jul 23, 2023}
A Russian fighter jet fired flares at a US drone over Syria and damaged it, the US military says
^{— Lolita C Baldor, Tara Copp · AP · Jul 25, 2023}

Then (if their government says so), any missiles violating that, warrants taking out the source of launch. Much like whatever other nation, here implemented by whatever coalition agreeing to help Ukraine. Once the Ukrainian skies are better cleared of offenders, civilians will be safer, the situation different, and more assessments warranted. That is, no tiptoeing inside Ukrainian airspace (if they want it so). If nothing else, that seems reasonable (to me).

if Putin's fears are even half justified, we can expect a likewise positive effect on pressure for change in Russia (including any stolen territories) from a free and prospering Ukraine next door — Isaac

Sure, if Ukraine was to fare well free from the Kremlin, and Russians observe, then that might help free the Kremlin from Putinistas. Asked earlier (I gave it some thought, but figured someone better informed might take it up):

Can anyone semi-informed imagine who might replace Putin, and what policy changes would result? Or am I only dreaming? — unenlightened

Another neighbor, Finland, doesn't seem to have had much impact against Putin, though. Why is that?

Folks, those numbers haven't been independent.

Yes, Ukraine has been wrestling to shed the regressing shadow of the dominant neighbor for a bit. Some progress has been made, and more pending (barring PTSD). — Jul 22, 2023

The protests were also about some of the elements those numbers are derived from.

They're more independent now, as the two countries have gone in different directions, despite the Kremlin's attempts otherwise, but they share much past, politics, overlapping culture, whatever it all is.

The Ukrainians somehow managed to create a momentum of change, which Putin + team ain't too happy about (irredentism has also come up).

There was a time, maybe three or so decades ago, when Russia seemed to head in a better direction, but that ended. :/ And now ...

Warring — the Kremlin invades + bombs Ukraine
Response — multinational political and defense action — Jul 22, 2023

Putin + team probably wouldn't be too happy about Belarus changing towards democracy, transparency, and all that (perhaps even seeking NATO membership :gasp:), either.

Just scrolled by ... :D

Encourage more war - "Putin is weakening and could be overthrown any minute, just a few more bombs and we'll be there."

Encourage political action instead of war - "Putin is strong, it would take many decades to overthrow him" — Isaac

↓ observations moreso than narrative (e.g. to proceed from)

Warring — the Kremlin invades + bombs Ukraine

Response — multinational political and defense action

^{(the "bombs" part includes food export by the way, "warring" party can make peace break out anytime, without much fear of invasion at that; the "response" part isn't exclusive-either-or like so, also repeated UN and Ukraine terms)}

Yes, Ukraine has been wrestling to shed the regressing shadow of the dominant neighbor for a bit. Some progress has been made, and more pending (barring PTSD).

Incidentally, there are some peripherals related to varying extents, e.g. Sweden, Armenia-Azerbaijan, North Korea, Germany, Poland.

↑ much already brought up earlier

Nothing further regarding this earlier comment?

The Kremlin really doesn't like Odesa.

Odesa, other Ukrainian port cities bombarded by Russia for 3rd consecutive night
^{— Samya Kullab · AP via PBS · Jul 19, 2023}

Ruining grain export and "retaliation" all in one?

Russia bombards Ukraine ports, threatens ships, jolting world grain markets
^{— Viktoria Lakezina, Vitalii Hnidyi, Peter Graff, Angus MacSwan · Reuters via MSN · Jul 20, 2023}

The aggressor is deliberately hitting the port infrastructure - administrative and residential buildings nearby were damaged, also the consulate of the People's Republic of China. — Oleh Kiper

Russian attacks kill one in north Ukraine, hit grain terminals in south
^{— Anna Pruchnicka, Kim Coghill, Timothy Heritage · Reuters · Jul 21, 2023}

Kiper said Russia had attacked with Kalibr cruise missiles that were fired from the Black Sea at low altitude to bypass air defence systems.

Not sure how, say, China can justify supporting this crap.

Yes. [...] — Isaac

OK, this goes well beyond any particular troubles in the world, and (I think) also answers

could use (or needs) some fleshing out — jorndoe

i.e. such a "border/country free world" would go towards

that no one cares which side of the border they're on — Isaac

except doesn't answer how such a world might/would come about.

EDIT: more explicit

removing the leader of a country and replacing him with a more egalitarian one [...] pursue (with the billions invested currently in war) replacing him with a better leader — Isaac

Yaay a suggestion, though it could use (or needs) some fleshing out.

By the way ...

so that no one cares which side of the border they're on — Isaac

Is this related to the "border/country free world" thing from earlier in the thread?

Continuation of earlier comments:

Russia to deem Ukraine-bound ships 'potential carriers of military cargo' from Wednesday eve
^{— Felix Light, Peter Graff · The Reuters · Jul 19, 2023}

Russia was also declaring southeastern and northwestern parts of the Black Sea's international waters to be temporarily unsafe for navigation, it said, without giving details about the parts of the sea which would be affected.

Evidently, it's not just Ukraine (and a couple of other hotspots) that has (and/or might get) a Kremlin problem. Doing this to try forcing their demands, you have to wonder what's next.

Will be interesting to see, but I guess only time will tell:

Opinion: With their leader still missing, who will control Wagner forces in Africa?
^{— Joyce M Davis · CNN · Jul 18, 2023}

Wagner mercs have reportedly (AP, BBC) camped up in Belarus, maybe in the range of 600 so far.

Their forces in Africa can't quite become Russian army just like that, at least I don't think they can, yet the Kremlin likely wants to maintain that presence.

Either way, they'll be wanting a fat paycheck.

My own opinion leans towards the US not being very serious. They have too strong an interest in continuing this war. — Mikie

Weighing blame...?

Their military support is good for the powerful arms industry, and there’s apparently little willingness to engage in serious peace negotiations. — Mikie

More than one topic I guess. The military-industrial complex (not just US, by the way), politics (like democracy versus authoritarianism), all that.

What will happen to food prices? [...] — RogueAI

Don't know exactly. Some estimates have been reported, didn't look good. Maybe other transport routes can be devised. (Or maybe the freighters can be protected by the Chinese navy. :wink:)

, lately, no negotiations, just the Kremlin stating demands, refusal.
Incidentally perhaps, now the same for the grain thing.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have grown increasingly distrustful, hateful. (PTSD?)

Handing the Kremlin control of all of Ukraine('s grain + fertilizer + processing + transport) doesn't seem the best (Jun 16, 2023, Jul 1, 2023).

UN asks Putin to extend Black Sea grain deal in return for SWIFT access, sources say
^{— Michelle Nichols, Kanishka Singh, Mark Heinrich, Diane Craft · Reuters · Jul 12, 2023}
Russian Agricultural Bank may be connected to SWIFT for payments under grain deal — source
^{— TASS · Jul 13, 2023}
Russia halts participation in Black Sea grain deal: Kremlin
^{— Al Jazeera · Jul 17, 2023}
Russia says decision not to extend Black Sea grain deal is final
^{— Patrick Wintour, Shaun Walker · The Guardian · Jul 17, 2023}

UN EU UK officials pointed out the hostage-holding-alike politicization of the situation by the Kremlin.
(Don't know about others, but I expected a deal of sorts to come through like it had in the past.)

'Dumpster fire' doesn't begin to describe American politics and the buffoons you people put in the White House. — Tzeentch

If "you people" means US voters, then, sure, a few US politicians are clowns, including RFK Jr. Clowns electing clowns? Let's get real. Democracy has room for circus politic(ian)s (as it should). And could get...interesting when voters fall for it.

What to make of crap like this, coming from a prominent politician?

RFK Jr. says COVID may have been ‘ethnically targeted’ to spare Jews
^{— Jon Levine · New York Post · Jul 15, 2023}
Robert F. Kennedy Jr: COVID-19 was specifically engineered to avoid harming Jews
^{— The Jerusalem Post · Jul 15, 2023}
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. answers question about anti-vaccine views | Conversation with the Candidate
^{— WMUR-TV · Jun 23, 2023 · 7m:15s}

Granted, it reads a bit like something from a movie, sort of alarmist:

Record heatwaves sweep the world from US to Japan via Europe
^{— Agence France-Presse via Times of Malta · Jul 15, 2023}

Propaganda coming hard and fast now, to prepare for climate lockdowns — Bob Batterson

Yet, the report has numbers, evidence, tangibles, unlike the conspiracy theorist.

My emphasis

offensive seems to have now concluded — Tzeentch

the offensive was — Tzeentch

Why do you think so?

which suggests heavily that NATO is not looking to get more military involved than it already is — Tzeentch

NATO members (and whoever else) are indirectly involved (no declaration of war / combatants). Why "heavily" though?

fool-hardly attempt — Tzeentch

Plausible enough, yet makes Prigozhin appear dumber than a fairly successful entrepreneur. Is he that out of touch? Does it stack up?

How Our Efforts to Bring Competition To Television Unknowingly Helped Create the Fox Disinformation Machine
^{— Preston Padden, Ken Solomon, Bill Reyner · Jul 12, 2023}

Reported elsewhere ...

Ex-Fox Execs Are Now Appalled By 'Disinformation Machine' They Helped Create
^{— Ed Mazza · HuffPost · Jul 13, 2023}
Former Fox executives express ‘deep disappointment’ for helping build ‘disinformation machine’
^{— Lauren Sforza · The Hill · Jul 13, 2023}

The "machine" and Dump share a category or something.

Opinion: Whatever happened to Mutually Assured Destruction?
^{— David A Andelman · CNN · Jul 6, 2023}

He would see this country burn if he could be King of the ashes — Lord Varys

↪frank Indeed, democracy is a bad system when most of the population is insane. — unenlightened

‘Resting,’ fired, believed dead: Russia’s missing generals reveal cracks in faltering military
^{— Tim Lister, Anna Chernova · CNN · Jul 13, 2023}

Surovikin — alleged Prigozhin supporter, whereabouts unknown, "on leave"?
Tsokov — RIP
Popov — airs complaints similar to Prigozhin's (Mishov), fired

Firing experienced commanders doesn't seem like a good idea. Might be smarter to take the noise as feedback? Anyway, who knows what's going on. Fear of mutiny, defection, public image? Whatever the case, there's additional evidence of Prigozhin's misgivings.

Maybe this angle will catch on?

Reinventing cosmology: uOttawa research puts age of universe at 26.7 — not 13.7 — billion years (at ScienceDaily)
^{— Bernard Rizk · University of Ottawa · Jul 11, 2023}

DOI 10.1093/mnras/stad2032

Rambling dude as usual (emphasis more or less like the original).

Preliminary results of the NATO summit.
Just like we thought:

1. Action Plan for Ukraine's membership in the Alliance (MAP) - cancel. Kind of take it faster.

2. Call country 404 to NATO. But they will accept - it is not known when and under what conditions.

Quite possibly never. And that's what realists in the Alliance are afraid to say out loud.

3. Increase military assistance to the Kyiv regime. Everything that is possible: rockets, cluster charges, airplanes.
The completely crazy West could not come up with anything else. Predictability of the highest level, to the point of idiocy. In fact, it's a dead end. World War III is getting closer.

What does all this mean for us? Everything is obvious.
The special military operation will continue with the same goals.

One of them is the refusal of the Kyiv Nazi group from membership in NATO, which we insisted on from the very beginning (which is impossible).

This means that this group will have to be eliminated (which is possible and necessary).

P.S. It was reported that Tokmok was shelled with cluster munitions. So, it's time to uncover our arsenals of these inhumane weapons. — Dmitry Medvedev · Jul 11, 2023

• nah, the Kremlin's invasion + bombery + all that brought wars closer, Ukraine told you "No", the UN likewise — leave Ukraine alone
• nah, Ukraine ain't ruled by a Nazi regime (actually, the regressing Kremlin is worse)
• Use of cluster munitions in the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Give it up already.

Wagner looking to expand their repertoire (☢ Voronezh-45)?

Wagner fighters neared Russian nuclear base during revolt
^{— Mari Saito, Tom Balmforth, Sergiy Karazy, Anna Dabrowska, John Shiffman, Phil Stewart, Polina Nikolskaya, Maria Tsvetkova, Anton Zverev, Christian Lowe, David Gauthier-Villars, Stephen Grey, Reade Levinson, Eleanor Whalley, Milan Pavicic, Daria Shamonova, Janet McBride · Reuters · Jul 11, 2023}

At a glance, it doesn't seem all that likely. Then again... Either way, Wagner could apparently have acquired materials from Voronezh-45 had they wanted.

Treisman opines:

Opinion: Welcome to the ‘looking-glass’ world of Putin’s Russia
^{— Daniel Treisman · CNN · Jul 10, 2023}

More "alternate world" type stuff (like Jun 16, 2023, Mar 4, 2023).

Deer spread COVID to humans multiple times, researchers find
^{— Alexander Tin · CBS · Jul 11, 2023}

DOI 10.1038 s41467-023-39782-x

AI and CRISPR Precisely Control Gene Expression
^{— NYU · Jul 3, 2023}

What to expect...?

, neat illustrations. The evolving universe might be the most intuitive, except if "evolving" already presupposes time.

NATO flexes muscle to protect Vilnius summit near Russia, Belarus
^{— Andrius Sytas, Sabine Siebold, John Irish, William Maclean · Reuters · Jul 8, 2023}

If Lithuania was alone, I would feel differently. — Edvard Rynkun, 67

If not for the NATO membership, things here could already be same as in Ukraine. — Elena Tarasevic, 55

"We are preparing for various provocations", border guard chief Rustamas Liubajevas said. He added that he feared waves of migrants at the border, or border violations, or military vehicles appearing at the border without explanation.

Seems unlikely that the Kremlin or Minsk cares much about NATO military presence, it's not like NATO is going to attack. Kaliningrad looks like a nice appetizer, though. :yum: j/k

Well, maybe democracy and all that isn't worth putting up a fight for? (Such a sentiment would certainly please dictators, theocrats, and such, to which the Ukrainians said "No" by the way.) What's in putting up a fight, though? Here it included things and moral concerns that can take a good while to mull over by a large number of mullets...err mullers:

US to send cluster munitions banned by over 100 nations to Ukraine after months of debate
^{— Natasha Bertrand, Haley Britzky, Jeremy Herb, Radina Gigova · CNN · Jul 8, 2023}
Ukraine says it won't use cluster bombs in Russia
^{— Olena Harmash, Vladimir Soldatkin, Ros Russell, Mark Potter · Reuters · Jul 8, 2023}
Use of cluster munitions in the Russian invasion of Ukraine
^{— Wikipedia}

Wagner chief walks free after armed revolt. Other Russians defying the Kremlin aren’t so lucky
^{— Dasha Litvinova · AP · Jun 27, 2023}

, a bit has been said (and speculated)

Prigozhin’s public support remains significant despite Russian propaganda efforts, polls show.
^{— Anatoly Kurmanaev, Julian Barnes · The New York Times · Jul 3, 2023}
↑ plausible

Wigs, guns and a giant sledgehammer: Russian media attacks mercenary chief over lavish home
^{— Yuliya Talmazan · NBC · Jul 6, 2023}
↑ plausible (no mention of Putin + palace on Russian state TV? :grin:)

Lukashenko Says Prigozhin Is in Russia, Not Belarus
^{— Valerie Hopkins, Anatoly Kurmanaev, Ivan Nechepurenko, Eric Schmitt, Paul Sonne · The New York Times · Jul 7, 2023}

We don’t follow his movements. We have neither the ability nor the desire to do so. — Peskov

↑ Peskov not really all that believable

No one from Wagner has visited barracks offered by Belarus, ministry adviser says
^{— Guy Faulconbridge, Kevin Liffey, Mark Trevelyan · Reuters · Jul 7, 2023}
↑ plausible enough (what's up, mercs in the wind, where, back in Bakhmut?)

Prigozhin’s fate remains unclear and it signals more trouble in Russia
^{— Jill Dougherty · CNN · Jul 7, 2023}
↑ Dougherty opines / offers analysis

:chin:

Misc news...

Xi Jinping warned Vladimir Putin against nuclear attack in Ukraine
^{— Max Seddon, James Kynge, John Paul Rathbone, Felicia Schwartz, Joe Leahy, Nian Liu · Financial Times · Jul 5, 2023}
Kremlin: We can't confirm report that China's Xi warned Putin against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine
^{— Mark Trevelyan, Andrew Osborn · Reuters · Jul 5, 2023}

He-said-she-said :D

‘You can never become a Westerner:’ China’s top diplomat urges Japan and South Korea to align with Beijing and ‘revitalize Asia’
^{— Nectar Gan · CNN · Jul 5, 2023 (some comments by Joel Atkinson)}
Don’t try to be like Westerners – China’s top diplomat
^{— RT · Jul 5, 2023}
China dismisses criticism of top diplomat’s comments appearing to push for race-based alliance
^{— AP · Jul 5, 2023}

No matter how blonde you dye your hair, how sharp you shape your nose, you can never become a European or American, you can never become a Westerner. We must know where our roots lie. — Wang Yi

Don't Yi's comments carry some implicit admissions/implications?
Not sure why Koreans and Japanese would want to "become Westerners" (they should feel free to do whatever, join the Uyghurs or talk democracy if that's their thing).
There are other reasons at play.
Apologies for the side-track.

Looks like the Kremlin is taking over Wagner's lucrative businesses.

‘It is like a virus that spreads’: business as usual for Wagner group’s extensive Africa network
^{— Jason Burke · The Guardian · Jul 6, 2023}

Putin Wants Fealty, and He’s Found It in Africa
^{— Roger Cohen · The New York Times · Dec 27, 2022}

This would effectively cement what one Western ambassador called the Central African Republic’s status as a “vassal state” of the Kremlin.

Today, the Wagner shock troops form a Praetorian Guard for Mr. Touadéra, who is also protected by Rwandan forces, in return for an untaxed license to exploit and export diamonds, gold and timber from virgin forests and from Russian mining interests in the country’s central region.

France this month completed the withdrawal of all of its forces from the Central African Republic. Six years ago, they numbered more than 1,600.
Asked about this decision, the French Ministry of the Armed Forces sent a statement blaming Central African authorities for choosing to work with a “nonstate actor, the Wagner Group, that regularly commits violence and abuses toward the civilian population and is a for-profit enterprise whose business model is based on the plundering of local resources.”

No longer quite a "nonstate actor".

Some recent moves:

Homemade or imported - France and Germany have different strategies on air defence systems
^{— euronews · Jun 29, 2023 · 2m}
Neutral Switzerland and Austria will join European air defense project
^{— AP · Jul 4, 2023}

Proceeding from the UN ^{Mar 2014, Feb 2022, Mar 2022, Mar 2022, Apr 2022, Oct 2022, Nov 2022, Feb 2023} ...

If Ukraine declares a no-fly-zone in their airspace (except for whatever they approve), then it's more or less settled, although there aren't any "higher authorities" to enforce that. Others may acknowledge or otherwise follow suit (like neighbors, the EU, NATO, the UN).

Sticking strictly to Ukrainian airspace, maybe it's time to take an enforced no-fly-zone seriously, bring it up seriously among those capable of doing so? Keep the Ukrainian skies (and just those) clear of uncleared attackers invaders bombers rockets, destruction from above?

What remains is risk assessment, implementation details, whatever. As far as I can tell, the only deterrent has been fear of what the Kremlin might do (risk assessment). We've now seen a year's worth of what the invader does, and the UN + the international community have spoken (repeatedly). Implementation details could likely be discussed for a long while, e.g. what if someone launches a surface-to-air missile against an enforcing plane? What say you? Forget it? Worthwhile taking up among the capable? ...?

, long ago, the thread established that all are bad. ;)

Motyl opines:

America’s leading ‘realist’ keeps getting Russia wrong
^{— Alexander J Motyl · The Hill · Jul 4, 2023}

On a backdrop of supposed NATO-phobia, deNazification, ongoing bombing of civilians, ...

Moscow says 700,000 children from Ukraine conflict zones now in Russia
^{— Lidia Kelly, Michael Perry · Reuters · Jul 3, 2023}

In July 2022, the United States estimated that Russia "forcibly deported" 260,000 children, while Ukraine's Ministry of Integration of Occupied Territories, says 19,492 Ukrainian children are currently considered illegally deported.

The Children Russia Kidnapped ^{(cache)
— Lauren Wolfe · The Atlantic · Jul 1, 2023}

Ulyanovsk and Krasnoyarsk (different regions) have a new political candidate:

"Merchant of Death" Viktor Bout, Russian arms dealer freed in swap for Brittney Griner, is running for office
^{— Haley Ott, Caitlin Yilek · CBS · Jul 3, 2023}

Mr. Bout said in a recent interview from his jail cell: “If you are going to apply the same standards to me, then you are going to have to jail all those arms dealers in America, who are sending the arms and ending up killing Americans…it’s a double standard. It’s hypocrisy.” — The Legal vs. the Illegal Arms Trade (Harvey Morris · New York Times · Apr 6, 2012)

Maybe he has a point there.

- "ordered" :)

Here we go again (again), on time ...

Russia's top diplomat Lavrov sees no reason to extend Black Sea grain deal (news version)
Russia's top diplomat Lavrov sees no reason to extend Black Sea grain deal (article version)
^{— Guy Faulconbridge, Michelle Nichols, Andrew Osborn, Grant McCool · Reuters · Jun 30, 2023}

The United Nations and Turkey brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative last July to help tackle a global food crisis worsened by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine - something it calls “a special military operation” - and its blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

If the Black Sea Initiative ceases to operate, we will provide grain deliveries of a comparable or larger size to the poorest countries at our own expense, free of charge. — Lavrov

If they can and are willing to send the food free of charge, then I'm confident no one will stop them. Free to go ahead. :up:

OK, as food exports go, there was a bit of commotion a few months back, but Poland Hungary Slovakia aren't likely to get in the way here. (WSJ · Sep 17, 2022, Al Jazeera · Apr 19, 2023.) :)

As mentioned, it's just the Kremlin standing in the way of the Ukrainian food shipments. Without Crimea, they might have less capability to do so, yet likely retain those food shipments (free of charge or not).

The (sort of) ultimatum put forth by the Kremlin seems to list two options:

• no blockade of Ukrainian food shipments: reconnect Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT; restart Tolyatti-Pivdennyi ammonia pipeline; resume supplies of agricultural machinery and parts to Russia; lift restrictions on insurance and reinsurance; unblock assets + accounts of Russian companies involved in food + fertiliser exports
• Russian blockade of Ukrainian food shipments; Russia exports some grain free of charge

The United Nations on Friday said it was concerned no new ships had been registered under the Black Sea deal since June 26 - despite applications being made by 29 vessels - and called on all parties to “to commit to the continuation and effective implementation of the agreement without further delay.” — Reuters · Jun 30, 2023

Russia signals end to Black Sea grain deal in July if demands not met
^{— EURACTIV and Reuters · May 26, 2023}

The ("outrageous") sanctions were put in place due to the (outrageous) invasion, hence of (other) relevance.

Ough.

Russia reducing its presence at nuclear plant, says Ukraine
^{— Luke Harding · The Guardian · Jun 30, 2023}

The agency’s chief, Kyrylo Budanov, has alleged Moscow has approved a plan to blow up the station and has mined four out of six power units, as well as a cooling pond. Last week Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said Russia was plotting a “terrorist attack”.

The Kremlin does have a thing with radioactives.

Comments in brief:

More Russians Questioning Putin After Wagner Revolt
^{— Veuer via NBC · Jun 30, 2023 · 1m:11s}

Maybe the blogger should ask whether the Ukrainians really are "our enemies". (Or were at least.) Speak up. The Kremlin is Russia's. Russia ain't Putin's.

‘Yevgeny Prigozhin will never be discussed again’: Russian media to erase all traces of mutinous warlord
^{— Andrew Roth · The Guardian · Jul 1, 2023}