, he could start out smaller, taking over after Lukashenko. :D

, yeah, though it's hard to tell what might come of it.

he wanted to have a politically apathetic population and that is exactly what he got — Jabberwock

I am ashamed that I allowed lies to be told from TV screens, that I allowed Russian people to be zombified. — Marina Ovsyannikova (Mar 2022)

↑ source

FYI, here are two different feeds on the Wagner move, with analyses, commentaries, summaries and such along the way:

• The Guardian
• NBC News

, don't know, I guess we'll see. They'll probably bring out the heavy/opaque paint, tell some tall tales.

The convoy allegedly downed a handful of choppers + a plane, earlier threatening to do that sort of thing if attacked. A fuel depot was blown up to slow the convoy down. Another country doing something like that could have resulted in a declaration of war, depending. What does a Mil 35 chopper cost anyway? An Ilyushin 22 plane? (For that matter, what about a gang killing 20?)

Reportedly, the convoy had something in the range of 5,000 fighters, some 40-50 pieces of warware (led by a nasty creep), with a similar number of fighters in Rostov-on-Don, where Prigozhin apparently was. Prigozhin mentioned the number 25,000, perhaps referring to the number of soldiers available to partake should the need arise. By some estimates, Wagner has 50,000 mercenaries altogether as of typing.


↑ source

Would the (heavily armed) convoy be enough to confront his foes? Short-term I'm guessing yes, longer-term no, possibly depending on participation. Reportedly, Kadyrov's forces were useless in Rostov.

What could Prigozhin/Wagner hope to accomplish, though? Force changes in leadership of the Defence Ministry, and go on about business as usual? Letting frustrations boil over, maybe Prigozhin thought so, with a show of force, if his various allegations could be shown true. If recognized, there'd be some (wide-ranging) implications for all to see, including for the war. But, some things have steered towards "business as usual", with charges dropped, mercenaries invited to join the Russian forces, whatever.

According to Prigozhin, the events weren't about overthrowing the government, but about changing the Defence Ministry leadership.
Supposing he wanted (or had been part of) a coup, he might have gone about it much the same way though.
A "bull in a china shop"? A "concealed coup"? (plenty room for conspiracy theories here)
Putin "the spy" comes through as significantly more calculating than Prigozhin "the warlord-chef".
Either way, a bunch of consequential things has been said by Prigozhin and Moscow. Wagner allegedly downed three choppers. A fuel depot was blown up to slow down the convoy.
Going to take some bending to make it look favorable for the Kremlin.

Prigozhin: "I'll be back."

Chechen leader offers to help put down Wagner mutiny
^{— Andrew Osborn · Reuters · Jun 24, 2023}

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said on Saturday his forces were ready to help put down a mutiny by Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and to use harsh methods if necessary.

Those two should get a room.

Odd how Prigozhin apparently was pissɘd with the army leaders, but went about it by being threatening to lots more. And the 180° turns. (Is the Kremlin dependent on Wagner for the war?) Maybe more will come out.

Prigozhin: “ ‘Wagner-on-Don’ sounds good. ”

Putin: “ Sorry Shoigu, take one for the team. ” :death:

The Russian bombing of Ukraine out of Rostov is reportedly still going on, or at least continued after Wagner took over. I don't think Prigozhin is particularly into leaving the Ukrainians alone. Nasty piece of work.

In the Tavry direction, the Defense Forces liberated the territories near Krasnohorivka in Donetsk region, which had been occupied since 2014. The movement of our forces continues. — Oleksandr Tarnavskyi (Jun 24, 2023)

Maybe the Belgorod attackers will surface again.

But Beijing might see a bigger prize in playing kingmaker for [...] — Count Timothy von Icarus

:gasp: :fire:

Prigozhin apparently wants:

• to hang Shoigu and Gerasimov
• roughly unrestricted access to the resources of the Defence Ministry or otherwise full support
• for the Armed Forces to "carry their weight"

But has also ...

• called out dis/mal/misinformation coming out of Moscow / the Kremlin, contradicting them
• elicited a number of responses, including threatening, from the Russian top
• apparently exposed weaknesses in Putin's Russia

Prigozhin: “ Our special operation will just take a couple days. ” :D

Prigozhin is running a few lucrative businesses, including the Central African Republic.

It's all about following the money. You've got to understand that these private militaries, they need money to function, they need resources to function... We're talking about billions of dollars here, perhaps even more. — David Otto

Experts estimate Wagner's projected revenue for the timber alone to be close to $1 billion, while the potential revenue from the Ndassima mine — now run entirely by Wagner — is estimated conservatively at around $2.7 billion. — CBS · May 16, 2023

They have a good lot of re$ource$. Doesn't mean they can stride in and hang Shoigu of course. :)

Wasn't aware of Medvedev's "cult of victory" which was invalidated in 2012 just before the end of his presidency. Similar free/open critique/discussion today would be :up:.

Strengthening Ukraine is not tantamount to weakening Russia. The tsarist and Soviet past cannot be defined by Moscow alone. It is a past shared with other countries, whose perceptions differ greatly from those of the Kremlin. If Russia wants safe and stable borders, it should offer the same to its neighbors. — Rudolf G Adam

Russia and a return to Soviet-style central planning
^{— Michael Marder · The Japan Times · Jan 15, 2023}

I guess their efforts sometimes pay off, just takes a mob of loud anonymous creeps.

TV meteorologist quits after receiving threats and harassment over climate change coverage
^{— Rachel Ramirez, Laura Paddison · CNN · Jun 23, 2023}

Gloninger’s experience is not an isolated one.

@ChrisGloninger · Jul 16, 2022

The CNN article has various links.

this is not an armed rebellion, but a march of justice — Prigozhin (Jun 23, 2023)

Prigozhin has made accusations before.

The [Rostov] border guards came out to meet and hugged our fighters — Prigozhin (Jun 23, 2023)

, it was also reported elsewhere ...

Russian mercenary boss says Moscow's war in Ukraine based on lies
^{— Andrew Osborn · Reuters · Feb 23, 2023}
Wagner chief accuses Moscow of lying to public about Ukraine
^{— Pjotr Sauer · The Guardian · Feb 23, 2023}

The Defence Ministry is trying to deceive society and the president and tell us a story about how there was crazy aggression from Ukraine and that they were planning to attack us with the whole of NATO [...] — Prigozhin

Sort of echoed by some Russian soldiers (even if somewhat questionable) ...

Demoralised Russian soldiers tell of anger at being ‘duped’ into war
^{— Luke Harding · The Guardian · Mar 4, 2022}
Dmitry Mishov, Russian airman who defected, gives BBC interview
^{— Ilya Barabanov, Kateryna Khinkulova · BBC · Jun 12, 2023}

I am a military officer, my duty is to protect my country from aggression. I don't have to become an accomplice in a crime. No one explained to us why this war started, why we had to attack Ukrainians and destroy their cities? In the military no one believes the authorities. They can see what is really happening. They are not some civilians in front of the telly. The military do not believe official reports, because they are simply not true. — Dmitry Mishov

Putin might be in too deep. An exit would be :up: though.

Relevant:

Will we know alien life when we see it?
^{— Tina Hesman Saey · Science News Explores · Mar 28, 2017}
Would extraterrestrial life even be life as we know it?
^{— Richard A Lovett · Cosmos · Jun 3, 2022}
Will We Know Alien Life When We See It?
^{— Conor Feehly · Nautilus · Jan 5, 2023}

The old anthropocentrism won't do.

Say, some sort of being could have "slow" thought (and other) processes lasting millennia, and it might not really register with us. If the universe (as we think of it) was like a "living" being of sorts, then (apropos) light speed would set some limitations.

For that matter, way out in the speculative wild, we could try to envision what 4-dimensional space might entail (I'm not thinking string theories here). Analogous to us thinking of 2-dimensional space, a "UFO" could emerge as if from nowhere and apparently (but only apparently) vanish again. I guess we'd still expect a gravitational footprint and more indications, but who knows, we're out where the wild things are.

Anyway, it's open-ended territory. Anthropocentrism also tends to elevate what we know of as consciousness, though something "grander" might occur.

(end 2¢ late babbling)

1 year since Roe v. Wade was overturned: Abortion in the US told in graphics
^{— Mary Kekatos, Katie Kindelan · ABC News · Jun 22, 2023}

This year has seen 25 measures enacted restricting abortion access and 30 protecting and expanding abortion access, according to Guttmacher.

Swiftly swap time back a few decades, then slowly moving again...?
Then again, this is where Trump was president.

Goodie. (PTSD notwithstanding.)

West needs strategy to tie Ukraine aid to corruption progress, thinktank says
^{— Patrick Wintour · The Guardian · Jun 20, 2023}
EU says Ukraine is making progress with reforms and on track to membership talks
^{— AP · Jun 22, 2023}

Let's note down accountabilities of the invader while we're at it.

How to explain that the sunlight hits you at a speed of c whether you travel towards or away from the Sun (or sit still)? Instead, the frequency/wavelength changes, like blue- and red-shift. This stuff has been verified and not falsified experimentally a few times over, and has various implications (also checked, entanglement not excluded).

Does light, traveling at the speed of light not get affected by time dilation? — Sir2u

Good question. Would the "ultimate" dilation be "not aging"? Anyway, photons are usually said to not decay, but who knows.

The Lorentz transformation ( above) describes what the two observers agree about. They can use it to figure out what the other party sees.

If it eases with the centralized control, it will break up. If it would be more multicultural or give more autonomy to the regions, it would break up. Or so the Russian thinking of the present elite goes. — ssu

Yeah, hence the multiple/repeated nationalist appeals from their political top (plus some that include those "sibling" Ukrainians), their public "advertising", and the lenience towards nationalist extremists, contrary to somewhat more moderate voices/critiques getting the hammer. Some has come up prior in the thread, though there's likely more to it. The Ukrainians said "No" and the world by and large ack'd.

Reports from the ground

He wanted an adventure. He ended up in Ukraine’s most brutal war zone
^{— Christopher Miller · Financial Times · Feb 16, 2023}

We can’t know what will come tomorrow. So we live for today. Why not celebrate and have a party? Maybe there will be no tomorrow. — Igor Moroz

↑ Anton, Christopher (author), Igor


The Kremlin is on a roll

In latest crackdown on critics, Russia declares World Wide Fund for Nature ‘undesirable’
^{— AP · Feb 21, 2023}


, did you ever get to whipping up a fresh thread on that stuff?
(I didn't notice if you did anyway. But please keep the p0m0 at a tolerable level. :smile:)
May 18, 2023, May 24, 2023, May 26, 2023

It's narratives and turtles all the way down. — yebiga

Reads p0m0'ish. I'm guessing the Bakhmutians beg to differ.

Motyl opines:

Putin’s ‘Big Lie’ Might Be a Scheme to Exit the Ukraine War
^{— Alexander Motyl · 19FortyFive · Jun 19, 2023}

One might hope, but it runs contrary to their "new reality", so far anyway. Peskov's utterings are odd, though.

You will either defeat the enemy as a single fist with our Motherland, or the indelible shame of cowardice, collaboration and betrayal will engulf your family. — Maxim Ivanov (WION · May 30, 2023)

Meanwhile, there have been some rumors on the street that Russian extremists are (ever) on the move (has come up prior in the thread); they want to assimilate Ukraine.

Russia’s shifting far right: the war party
^{— Oleg Ignatov · Lowy Institute · Apr 5, 2023}
Russian ultranationalists think Putin's response to the Moscow drone attacks and border raids shows he's 'out of touch with reality'
^{— Chris Panella · Business Insider · Jun 1, 2023}

Not sure how much to put into this stuff, though it's clear enough that there are extremists that the Kremlin has not "censored" away (selective application). Medvedev's crazy public outbursts don't help; he doesn't seem into exiting either, but maybe he just parrots whatever (he thinks) Putin wants.

• Russia invades Ukraine (Feb 2014, Feb 2022)
• Russia bombs Ukraine throughout (more or less ongoingly)
• the international community repeatedly condemns the invasion and helps Ukraine
• Ukraine defends
• Russia annexes a fifth or so of Ukraine (altogether)
• others do not supply Ukraine with longer-ranging missiles
• Ukraine develops its own long-range missile (Jun 2023) allegedly
• Kyiv in talks with Western weapons makers about setting up production in Ukraine (Jun 2023)
• (...)

The invaders seem to have (had) some interest in nuclear facilities, Chernobyl, Zaporizhzhia. Maybe, as part of a longer-term strategy, they wanted to make it difficult for Ukraine to develop nuclear weaponry. External parties/countries aren't likely to supply Ukraine with some such. Though, if Kyiv had nuclear weaponry at its disposal, then the Kremlin would have to rethink.

The kinds of stories that perpetuate hate and lead to increased violence ...

She thought she was unshockable, then two castrated Ukrainian soldiers arrived (via archive)
^{— Christina Lamb reports from the Donetsk oblast · The Sunday Times · Jun 17 2023}

These good folk hit a few snags along the way ...

Ukraine updates: African leaders kick off peace mission
^{— various via DW · Jun 15, 2023}
On Ukraine-Russia trip, South African leader’s delegation stuck at Polish airport over arms permits
^{— Mogomotsi Magome, Vanessa Gera, Gerald Imray · AP · Jun 16, 2023}
African leaders greeted with explosions over Kyiv on peace mission to Ukraine
^{— Sarah Dean, Olga Voitovych, Nimi Princewill, Niamh Kennedy · CNN · Jun 16, 2023}
Ukraine tells African mission no peace talks with Russia before withdrawal
^{— Reuters via CNBC · Jun 17, 2023}
Putin meets with African leaders as Russia confirms nukes in Belarus
^{— Giorgio Leali · POLITICO · Jun 17, 2023}
Putin lectures African leaders seeking to mediate in Ukraine
^{— Kevin Liffey, Andrew Heavens, Andrew Cawthorne · Reuters · Jun 17, 2023}

... But the efforts are commendable, more please, even though it doesn't seem like more will come of it.

Damn dam situation

Photos: Flood Damage After the Destruction of Ukraine’s Kakhovka Dam
^{— Alan Taylor · The Atlantic · Jun 12, 2023}

The water level in the Kakhovka Reservoir was at a 30-year high

Unclear if reservoir water from breached dam can still be pumped to Zaporizhzhia, IAEA says
^{— Francois Murphy, Frances Kerry · Reuters · Jun 16, 2023}

Rescuers are braving snipers and racing time to ferry Ukrainians out of Russian-occupied flood zones
^{— Samya Kullab, Evgeniy Maloletka, Sam Mcneil · AP · Jun 17, 2023}

Ukrainians rescued from Russian-held flood zones in Kherson
^{— Billal Rahman · The Independent · Jun 17, 2023}
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8lu2ao

Outside a flooded Ukrainian city, specialists warily sweep the ground for hidden bombs
^{— Murray Brewster · CBC · Jun 17, 2023}

Mess :/ At least there are some international teams around

There's been comments on this stuff prior in the thread (e.g. Apr 24, 2023, Apr 23, 2023, Mar 20, 2023, Mar 2, 2023, Oct 30, 2022).

Russian officials say Black Sea grain deal can't be extended
^{— Gareth Jones, Mark Trevelyan, Nick Macfie · Reuters · Jun 16, 2023}

Uhm It's just the Kremlin standing in the way of the ships transporting food.
Matviyenko Putin Lavrov (maybe Ushakov?) apparently roam an alternate world.

Imagine, for the sake of argument, that the Kremlin controlled all of Ukraine('s grain + fertilizer + processing + transport).
With rubbish like the above coming out of the Kremlin, anything goes (including tactical hostage-holding).
Can always claim to try something else, and if it doesn't work out, blame everyone else.
Regardless, they may get away with it, though one could hope not.

Maybe it was just some (locally assigned) commander among the invaders that eyed the dam and thought it would cool to blow up? Afraid of the defenders?

Russian forces ‘highly likely’ behind attack on Ukrainian dam, international law investigation says
^{— Amanda Macias · CNBC · Jun 16 2023}
'Highly likely' Russia behind Ukraine dam collapse, international experts say
^{— Anthony Deutsch, Philippa Fletcher · Reuters · Jun 16 2023}

They dismissed the theory that a catastrophic dam breach could have been caused by mismanagement alone.

Some investigation participants:
• GRC, ICC, MJT
• Murdoch, Khan
Funding spans the US, EU, UK.

Ex-president dishing out threats... Calling opponent "the devil"...

Donald Trump threatens to prosecute Hillary Clinton
^{— CNN · Oct 9, 2016 · 1m:1s}


Presidential Debate - DT: Bc you'd be in jail! - Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
^{— ABC15 Arizona · Oct 9, 2016 · 36s}


Trump’s Threat to Jail Clinton Also Targets Democracy’s Institutions
^{— Max Fisher, Amanda Taub · The New York Times · Oct 11, 2016}

Trump team won't pursue charges against Hillary Clinton
^{— Jon Sopel · BBC · Nov 22, 2016}

11 times Trump threatened Clinton with prison
^{— CNN · Nov 15, 2017 · 1m:18s}
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2017/11/15/trump-clinton-doj-special-prosecutor-vstan-orig-bw.cnn

Whether ironic or not, the rhetoric/tactic wasn't new.

Captured Ukrainian soldiers face trial in Russia
^{— AP · Jun 14, 2023}

I'm sure those cooks are guilty of...something. Maybe even worse than Navalny.

, mistaken acronym, Ukrainian Floating Operatives.

Allegedly real (am not watching myself). :lol: The headline I mean. Defendant was arrested.



Fox News labels Joe Biden a ‘wannabe dictator’ during Trump speech
^{— Royce Kurmelovs · The Guardian · Jun 14, 2023}

Some news on the street about the present situation ...

NATO leader says Ukrainians are making progress and advancing against Russian forces
^{— Chris Megerian · AP · Jun 12, 2023}

Former Kremlin Official Says Putin Is Too Afraid to Punish the Wagner Group’s Prigozhin, Even After Public Name Calling
^{— Veuer via Dailymotion · Jun 13, 2023 · 1m:12s}

Blue and yellow flag, Russian dead attest to Ukrainian advance in south
^{— Vitalii Hnidyi, Max Hunder, Guy Faulconbridge, Vladimir Soldatkin, Peter Graff, Alex Richardson, Grant McCool, Angus MacSwan, Mark Heinrich · Reuters · Jun 13, 2023}


↑ Source

(, just FYI, the tankies thing wasn't specifically about the dam)

Russian propaganda is also trying to play the cui bono card. Their western proxies amplify that narrative: — SophistiCat

Although it is unclear who was responsible for the attack, last year, Ukrainian troops fired on the dam in an attempt to raise water levels downstream, and the military leadership had publicly contemplated destroying it altogether. — World Socialist Website

Those apologetics don't make much sense (to me anyway).
Socialists sort of promoting nationalist authoritatian oppressive degenerative capitalist Kremlin...? :brow:
Maybe they are just proxies.

Ukraine denounces Russian MH17 'rambling conspiracy theory' at World Court
^{— William Maclean · Reuters · Jun 12, 2023}

It [Dutch court] found that Russia had "overall control" over the separatist forces.

... has been implicitly confirmed by Russians anyway, no secret.
Definite answers about the MH17 tragedy may not be found, just a plausible consensus.


Chechen forces sign contract with Russia after Wagner’s refusal
^{— Al Jazeera · Jun 12, 2023}

Kadyrov's aspirations sort of coming to fruition?
Putin seems to stay silent on the Prigozhin-versus-Shoigu/defence-ministry thing.

Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam ...

Moscow and Kyiv blame each other for disastrous dam collapse in southern Ukraine
^{— Susie Blann, Danica Kirka, Edith M Lederer · AP via PBS · Jun 6, 2023}
Russia opens investigation after Ukraine shells evacuation point, kills pregnant woman
^{— TASS · Jun 8, 2023}
Russia shells Ukrainian city inundated by dam collapse after Zelenskyy visit
^{— Vasilisa Stepanenko, Jamey Keaten, Illia Novikov, Joanna Kozlowska, Elise Morton, Yuras Karmanau, Hanna Arhirova, Edith M Lederer · AP · Jun 8, 2023}
Who blew up the Kakhovka dam? Here are the three theories
^{— Brad Dress · The Hill · Jun 11, 2023}
Ukraine's Zelenskiy: Work has started on international investigation of dam breach
^{— Ron Popeski, Marguerita Choy · Reuters · Jun 11, 2023}
Kherson flooding: Ukraine evacuation boat attacked by Russia, killing three
^{— Alys Davies, Paul Adams · BBC · Jun 11, 2023}

Goodie, let's have some external investigators (just don't get in the way of the defenders moving to kick the invaders out :smile:).
If the ICC finds either to blame, then they'll likely deny.
If Kyiv is found to blame, then they have to answer to those from which they're getting aid (civil, arms).
If the Kremlin is found to blame, then they won't care much.

Also, the "Ukraine Crisis" thread.

An example of sorts over in this parallel post: Tiananmen 1989

Caught :)

Radio New Zealand investigates Russia-friendly editing of Ukraine articles
^{— Tess McClure, Luke Harding · The Guardian · Jun 9, 2023}

Not sure how funny this is in the scheme of things, but gave me a chuckle anyway.

"Take that, damn tractor!" :fire: :rage: :death:

Video shows Russia blew up a tractor instead of tank
^{— Marshall Ritzel · Associated Press · Jun 8, 2023 · 1m:8s}

Suppose, for the sake of argument, that the Kyiv attack had not been part of the Feb 24 invasion.

In terms of strategy, what might reasonably have been expected for north-Ukrainian/Kyiv forces? Moved to defend the east? Half go east, half stay to defend if also to be attacked there (north/Kyiv)? Stay put? What difference (if any), would it have made to the south/eastern parts of the invasion?

Each could be tediously analyzed and some implications drawn, while supposing that the Russian generals/strategists were informed/competent or not.

Animated gifs (somewhat large image files, so not going to attach):

• Phase 1, Feb 24 — Apr 7
• Phase 2, Apr 7 — Sep 5
• Phase 3, Sep 5 — Nov 11

In the absence of a critical media that challenges the policies of the government, the average distracted citizen, in any given land, becomes a vessel of prescribed thoughts. Western perceptions of Russia, tainted by decades of motion pictures portraying Russians as routine villains, infect the collective consciousness. — yebiga

There's a fair amount of critique of the US, coming from the US, documentaries, movies, interviews, whatever. Some were posted in the thread.

The West is envious of Russia? — Jabberwock

Might be the other way around? Or is that politically incorrect to say?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/ — neomac

For some reason, this doesn't really seem that surprising. (Ukrainian Floating Operatives.)

A diversion, most likely. — Tzeentch

How many troops did Putin need to take Crimea? — ssu

I'm experiencing déjà vu. :)

Zelensky asks for proof of invasion of Ukraine allegedly planned for February 16
^{— TASS · Feb 12, 2022}
Washington’s warnings that Russia is about to invade frustrate Ukrainians
^{— Matt Bradley, Veronika Melkozerova · NBC News · Feb 15, 2022}
EU 'did not believe' US warnings of Russian war
^{— John Silk · Deutsche Welle · Oct 11, 2022}

Well, whatever you do with the old stories, ...

¹⁸ I warn everyone who hears the words of the prophecy of this scroll: If anyone adds anything to them, God will add to that person the plagues described in this scroll.
¹⁹ And if anyone takes words away from this scroll of prophecy, God will take away from that person any share in the tree of life and in the Holy City, which are described in this scroll. — Revelation 22:18-19

(incidentally, self-entitlement/bolstering is one of the tricks of the trade)

Lazar gained a bit of fame or notoriety some decades ago when starting similar claims.
Types of claims generally easier to prove than disprove (due to their nature).
With grand fantastic stories like this, I'll need a wee bit more.
Maybe those people should take up writing novels?

Explainer: What would it mean if Ukraine joined NATO?
^{— Sabine Siebold, Charlotte Van Campenhout, Mark Heinrich · Reuters · Jun 5, 2023}

Despite not having been granted a MAP [Membership Action Plan], the country's military has taken major steps in transitioning towards NATO standards since Russia's invasion 15 months ago.
This process is set to accelerate as Kyiv gradually runs out of Soviet-built arms and ammunition, while the West trains Ukrainian troops according to NATO standards and rushes more and more advanced weaponry to the country.

Makes it sound like the aid also is part of preparations for Ukraine to join NATO, not just immediate defense.