Experts On Russia Say Donald Trump Is Wrong About The War In Ukraine
^{— Stuart Anderson · Forbes · Apr 27, 2025}

From the article ...

Russia’s threats to take over the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine go back to the times of Boris Yeltsin. Putin acted on those threats in 2003 trying to take over Ukraine’s Tuzla Island off the shores of the Crimea. The annexation of the Crimea in 2014 was explained by the threat from NATO, which allegedly planned to establish naval bases on the peninsula. In reality, it was a response to the Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity and determination to sign an association agreement with the European Union. By launching a war on Ukraine, Russia was not stopping NATO, which had refused to admit the country back in 2008, but was precluding the ‘escape’ of a former imperial subject from Russia’s sphere of influence. — Serhii Plokhy

Trump’s contention that Ukraine’s hope of joining NATO ‘caused the war to start’ is a claim that is often made, but one that doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Given that there was no serious prospect of Ukraine joining NATO between 2008 and 2022, it’s hard to see how Ukraine’s hope of joining NATO at some point in the future caused the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022. Nothing had happened in the previous 14 years to make it likely that Ukraine could join NATO anytime soon. I think most specialists on Russia and Ukraine agree that Putin’s key motive for the full-scale invasion was his desire to restore Russian political control over Ukraine—it wasn’t about this or that piece of territory. This reflects Putin’s oft-stated belief that Ukraine is not a separate nation and that it is an artificial state. Putin was motivated by imperial ideas about Ukraine, not by any fears of a security threat to Russia from NATO. It’s worth noting that Russia has literally thousands of nuclear weapons to deter an attack on Russian territory. It’s also worth noting that Putin seems untroubled by Finland joining NATO in 2023, even though they share a lengthy land border. In fact, Russia has moved troops away from the Finnish border to fight in Ukraine. — Brian Taylor

Putin hasn’t taken Ukraine because he can’t. To suggest ‘not taking all of Ukraine’ is a Russian concession is ludicrous. — Mick Ryan

The front line is not about to collapse. Despite AFU [Armed Forces of Ukraine] being largely pressed out of Kursk, the overall situation from Pokrovsk to Kupyansk improved. The implication being that Ukraine is not in a desperate situation requiring a rushed ceasefire under unfavorable terms. — Michael Kofman

Drones have indeed transformed the battlefield in Ukraine by providing accessible and affordable capabilities at a scale that did not previously exist. They are making it difficult to concentrate forces, achieve surprise and conduct offensive operations. — Stacie Pettyjohn

Following last night’s brutal assault on Kyiv, it’s clear Putin has no interest in peace. Time to answer Russia’s ongoing invasion in Ukraine with renewed American strength and give our ally the military support they need to win a victory for freedom.USUA https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-launches-massive-deadly-strike-kyiv-ukrainian-authorities/story?id=121113739 — Mike Pence · Apr 24, 2025

, they've been trying to demonize (and divide) Europe for a while, all part of the playbook.

Incidentally, it goes well with Vance's Munich tirade. :chin:

Maybe someone should round up comparisons.


<sup>Soviet/Russian World War 2 poster


Soviet/Russian World War 2 drawing</sup>

Directed youth militarization in Russia isn't new.

▸ Russia's youngest cadets (— CBS · Apr 23, 2014)

They've stepped up these efforts.

▸ How Russia Prepares Children In Occupied Ukraine For War Against Their Own Country (— RFE/RL · Dec 3, 2024)
▸ Extraction (— Jade McGlynn, Illia Riepin · Feb 11, 2025)
▸ Is Putin’s brainwashing of Ukrainians into Russians even a crime? (— The Economist · Feb 21, 2025)
▸ Russia’s forcible deportation and indoctrination of Ukrainian children (— Bergen Global CMI/UiB · Feb 21, 2025 · 1h:55m:2s)
▸ The children of Severomorsk are told that neighbouring Nordic countries support Nazism (— The Barents Observer · Apr 15, 2025)
▸ Teaching children to march and shoot: Russians prepare children in Mariupol for war with Ukraine (— Mariupol City Council / UNN · Apr 18, 2025)

Insidious.

The issue of Crimea's ownership has been resolved, Russia is not negotiating the integrity of its territory, Trump understands this, said Sergey Lavrov
^{— Zvezda via ZOV Mariupol News Feed · Apr 27, 2025 · 1m:11s}

So said Lavrov. (Or will Trump reconsider?)

Chinese coast guard says it seized sandbank in the South China Sea amid land tussle with the Philippines
^{— AFP/Reuters via ABC (Australia) · Apr 27, 2025}

Well, why not? Why couldn't China grab the island, when Putin seems to have gotten away with grabbing Crimea (in Trump and Lavrov's eyes at least)?

I kind of dismissed this at first, but it seems to hold up, though it's unclear to what extent.

Russia is ‘recycling’ wounded troops, sending some to the frontline on crutches
^{— Nick Paton Walsh, Darya Tarasova, Kosta Gak · CNN · Feb 22, 2025}

Aren't there laws or something against that?

North Korean Deployment in Kursk: A Window into the DPRK Military
^{— Lorenzo Fedrigo · Geopolitical Monitor · Mar 21, 2025}
Vladimir Putin signs decree calling up 160,000 Russians for military service
^{— Euronews · Mar 31, 2025}

Trump issues rare rebuke for Putin after Kyiv attacks
^{— Karl Sexton, Timothy Jones · DW et al · Apr 24, 2025}
'He's just tapping me along' — Trump admits Putin may not be interested in ending war on Ukraine
^{— Martin Fornusek · The Kyiv Independent · Apr 26, 2025}

Is Trump finally growing a spine? One might hope, though I wouldn't hold my breath.

Europe’s Defense Spending Puzzle Can Pay Huge Dividends
^{— Nathan Decety · Res Publica · Apr 23, 2025}

Europe is behind, except perhaps in some hybrid warfare.^† Ukraine is ahead in some areas (e.g. above). The Baltics and Poland are a bit nervous.

^{† caveat: it's easier for Russian operatives/propagandists to go to Europe and do something, than for operatives/propagandists to do much in Russia}

There's something vaguely eerie about these parallels ...

Furthermore, I expect the [country's] legal profession to understand that the nation is not here for them but that they are here for the nation, that is, the world, which includes [our country], must not decline in order that formal law may live, but [our country] must live irrespective of the contradictions of formal justice. From now on, I shall intervene in these cases and remove from office those judges who evidently do not understand the demand of the hour. — source

... unless I'm just seeing faces in the clouds. I'll go back to watching Disney now.

What's going on here?

1. Trump tariffs China and ups them to 34%
2. China doesn't do anything
3. Trump hikes tariffs to 84%
4. China responds with matching tariffs
5. Trump hikes to 145%
6. China responds with matching tariffs
7. Trump says he wants Xi to call him
8. China doesn't do anything
9. Trump says he's ready to "make a deal"
10. China doesn't do anything
11. Trump rolls back tariffs

Doesn't Trump have anything better to do?
On the other hand, maybe he should leave everything else alone.

Zaluzhnyi writes:

How drones, data, and AI transformed our military—and why the US must follow suit
^{— Valerii Zaluzhnyi · Defense One · Apr 10, 2025}

War gear is for anyone to own.
And, in the US, head over to Walmart, pick up ammo, and you have what you need to make your own drone attack force.

NATO has missed the drone revolution
^{— Anders Puck Nielsen · Logic of War · Apr 18, 2025}

Harvard is an Anti-Semitic, Far Left Institution, as are numerous others, with students being accepted from all over the World that want to rip our Country apart. The place is a Liberal mess, allowing a certain group of crazed lunatics to enter and exit the classroom and spew fake ANGER AND HATE. It is truly horrific! Now, since our filings began, they act like they are all “American Apple Pie.” Harvard is a threat to Democracy, with a lawyer, who represents me, who should therefore be forced to resign, immediately, or be fired. He’s not that good, anyway, and I hope that my very big and beautiful company, now run by my sons, gets rid of him ASAP! — Trump (verified) · Apr 24, 2025

Good grief. Someone will still try to justify that clown though. (I can't help but wonder if someone is whispering things in his ears.)

Continuing from Mar 10, 2025 ...

As shown by our victims’ stories today, Biden’s Department of Justice abused and targeted peaceful Christians while ignoring violent, anti-Christian offenses. Thanks to President Trump, we have ended those abuses, and we will continue to work closely with every member of this Task Force to protect every American’s right to speak and worship freely. — Pamela Bondi · Apr 22, 2025

By the way, Biden is Catholic, Trump is not exactly Christian.
The mentioned cases pale in comparison to Team Trump's goings and doings.
It's been argued that these efforts are attempts at a (forced) cultural revolution.

Apparently, the ceasefire/peace talks have been postponed.

Word on the street is that Team Trump was going to present the following in London:

• de jure recognition by the US of Russia's control over Crimea
• de facto recognition of Russia's occupation of most of Luhansk, parts of Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia
• guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO
• lifting of sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014

• a (vague) security guarantee from a handful of European countries, no US involvement
• return to Ukraine of a small portion of the Kharkiv region currently under Russian occupation
• ambiguous promises of reconstruction aid

Won't fly. And then Team Trump would likely blame it all on Ukraine (is my guess), still without standing up to Putin. Maybe that's why it was postponed.

Will be a very difficult late summer and fall — ssu

Also, there seems to be more focus on defensive weaponry, like detecting and shooting down incoming bombs and drones. With less (effective) weaponry to strike back, it's a precarious situation. Sufficient aid to put the invaders on the defense would help.

Inside North Korea’s vast operation to help Russia’s war on Ukraine
^{— Tom Balmforth, Mariano Zafra et al · Reuters · Apr 15, 2025}

Recently, Kryvyi Rih (Republic World, AP, Reuters) and Sumy (AP, Oneindia News, Al Jazeera) were the "sitting ducks".

^{(unknown veracity, but most seems consistent enough with whatever else)}

Trump Tower Moscow, Rare Earths and Geopolitical Perks: How the Kremlin Plans to Bait Trump Into a Grand Bargain
^{— Pyotr Kozlov · The Moscow Times · Apr 21, 2025}

Is Putin going for a Molotov-Ribbentrop type deal with Trump?
I guess it's up to the Ukrainians.
Europe better get its act together.

For can we really entertain the idea that the realist is conceiving the world as existing independently of his senses? — sime

Existentially dependent? The mind is doing the conceiving; self-reference; solipsism. Admit it. ;)

So it appears that "independence" in the context of minds, their ideas and the world are not independent at all, in any sense of the word. — Harry Hindu

It's just because our minds are parts of the world. Partaking in the world means dependencies of sorts.

You (decide to) call your dog, and it comes over: mind → world

Your dog comes over, making you happy: world → mind

So no, not independent.

US lifts sanctions against key Orbán ally accused of corruption (Apr 16, 2025)

Meanwhile Orbán is enacting... crackdown on non-government/foreign-funded organizations and media, so alleged threat to sovereignty can be (ab)used to silence critics; loss of Hungarian citizenship if they have other citizenship as well and allegedly undermine sovereignty; state of emergency can be declared indefinitely from the current maximum of 180 days; additional moves against trans-genders and homosexuals.

Room for corruption up, democracy and civil liberties down, political imposition against whatever cultural trend gets them fired up today, ...

Retardation pandemic?

This law is making its way in, but we'll see:

H.R.1526 - NORRA of 2025
^{— Darrell Issa · US Congress · Feb 24, 2025}

To me, it looks like more power concentration.

ACLU Responds to House Passage of H.R. 1526, Limiting Courts’ Ability to Rein in Abuses of Power
^{— Mike Zamore · American Civil Liberties Union · Apr 9, 2025}

Is Team Trump, or someone in his vicinity, setting up (prerequisites for) authoritarianism, or is there nothing to worry about here?
Having different branches of government, with their own power, is more democratic.

(as an aside, Season 6 of The Handmaid's Tale has started :wink:)

Hmm...?

China Deals a Blow to Donald Trump's F-47 Combat Jet Dream
^{— Brendan Cole · Newsweek · Apr 7, 2025}
US scrambles as China cuts off key minerals for fighter jets
^{— Boyko Nikolov · BulgarianMilitary · Apr 11, 2025}

Bold...

Newsom jumps into economic damage control
^{— Dustin Gardiner, Blake Jones · POLITICO · Apr 7, 2025}

Hmm...

Military contractors pitch unprecedented prison plan for detained immigrants
^{— Dasha Burns, Myah Ward · POLITICO · Apr 11, 2025}

Apart from the vague familiarity with...other things, wouldn't this run into legal troubles?

Information comes in via the sciences; what to do about it is political (or ethics).

Trump Administration Fires Hundreds of Climate and Weather Specialists
^{— Yale Environment 360 · Apr 11, 2025}

implausible climate threats, contributing to a phenomenon known as ‘climate anxiety,’ which has increased significantly among America’s youth — Team anti-woke

Will they shut down NASA's efforts as well?

, is that legal without proving the election was rigged?
Maybe the law no longer matters in the US.

, it's being given some further attention:

Ocasio-Cortez: Colleagues ‘should probably disclose’ recent stock purchases now
^{— Filip Timotija · The Hill · Apr 10, 2025}

Could just be "Trump’s loose lips and sticky fingers" I suppose. Insider trading is still illegal.

As an aside, , both the youtube and the Trump message it's referring to were from verified accounts of known public figures, so I'm thinking they're valid enough, despite being on social media. That's just my personal take, don't want to violate forum rules.

In addition to general communication, Internet social media seems to be an emerging secondary (perhaps toward primary) means of making news available; many major sources have verified presence. It's an evolving ecosystem. It's also poisoned by dis/mal/misinformation and other noise; that's a real problem with no easy, immediate solution.

Soybeans from Trump country will go up in price in the EU.

EU targets Trump’s red states with tariffs on US trucks, cigarettes and ice cream
^{— Giovanna Coi, Paroma Soni, Camille Gijs · POLITICO · Apr 9, 2025}

Targeted towards Trump voters. Will it make a difference?


On a separate note, I don't think Trump cares so much about a topic or cause, as he cares about taking the task + asserting himself + stomping someone or making big waves + getting credits applause cheers. And he'll roll with it, tossing weight around as he sees fit. Hostile towards whoever has criticized him, regardless of reason. If so, then there's a chance he could be won over to whatever cause (well, not any cause). I suppose there could be something more meaningful to him. His relationship with Putin is odd, if not suspicious. (end unsolicited assessment :smile:)

Hmm...

Ukraine captures two Chinese nationals fighting for Russia, Zelenskyy says
^{— Al Jazeera · Apr 8, 2025}

Will need outside verification. Would Zelenskyy make it up? Could they be Chinese mercs?

Putin just conscripted a slightly higher number than the last time.

Vladimir Putin signs decree calling up 160,000 Russians for military service
^{— Euronews · Mar 31, 2025}

They're not supposed to go to the frontlines. Maybe they're running low on bodies.

Should they be confirmed Chinese soldiers, what might be expected in response? Will Xi disown/deny them? Either way, there seems to be at least some justification for Ukraine's allies to put soldiers on the ground, though perhaps not that much.

My emphasis:

"For Fain, tariffs address a historic wrong. "We've sat here for the last 30 plus years, with the inception of [the North American Free Trade Agreement] back in 1993-94, and watched our manufacturing base in this country disappear," he said." --NPR link

Yep. — frank

That's just capitalism. Profit maximization. Capitalism has no care about patriotism/nationalism. What matters are cheaper labor / lower wages, competitiveness, less environmental regulations, less health + safety protection, buy lower / sell higher, profitable resources, etc. Marrying capitalism and patriotism/nationalism politically tends toward a more planned economy (like wartime economy :gasp: for a more extreme example), which will get many people's backs up.

The Daily Beast labeled this story "Rash Decision"...

Measles vaccination clinics hit by funding cuts
^{— Xavier Walton · The Hill · Apr 4, 2025}

Bulldozing without considering, clinics scrapped, health workers laid off, the heck are they doing? Seems like an RFK Jr thing, which may be coincidental. Shouldn't the government appoint someone who thinks?

Our thoughts are also with the measles-ravaged country America. I hope we are screening them before they come to Africa. — Elnathan John

:D

Another firing on questionable grounds...

Top US admiral at NATO removed amid Trump’s growing military firings
^{— Noah Robertson · Military Times · Apr 7, 2025}

Not loyal to Trump, "wokeness", DEI efforts, ..., have become reasons for firings.
RFK Jr stands out in demonstrating that merit isn't a reason to be hired.
Musk wrote "the woke mind virus will die" (though not YEC).
I'm wondering if they've considered the slippery slope they've taken.

'Alarmed': Ousted DOJ lawyer testifies she received late night 'threat' from ex-employer
^{— Sarah K Burris · Raw Story · Apr 7, 2025}

Activists on the weekend...

Angry protesters from New York to Alaska assail Trump and Musk in ‘Hands Off!’ rallies
^{— Dave Collins, Julie Carr, Fatima Hussein, Erik Verduzco, Nicholas Riccardi, Mark Thiessen · AP · Apr 5, 2025}

The CSDP doesn't come up much. Related:

EU finance ministers to discuss joint fund to buy and own defence gear
^{— Jan Strupczewski, Richard Chang · Reuters · Apr 7, 2025}

Due to Putin and Trump. Expect anti-EDM/Europe campaigns/rhetoric from the Kremlin. Expect haggling and bureaucracy. We'll see what comes of it.

It does actually make sense if you look at it from their ideological authoritarian perspective. — ChatteringMonkey

Might as well say it as it is.

FYI, a short correspondence regarding how individual US tariffs are determined, between James Surowiecki (journalist) and Kush Desai (The White House) (both social media accounts below are verified, I wanted to link original sources):

Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.

So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is. — James Surowiecki · Apr 2, 2025

No we literally calculated tariff and non tariff barriers.

https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations — Kush Desai · Apr 2, 2025

This is truly amazing. The Deputy White House Press Secretary is claiming that I'm wrong, and that the "tariff rates" on Trump's chart were calculated by "literally" measuring every country's tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers.

To prove it, he screenshots the formula the USTR says was used to calculate the reciprocal tariffs we imposed on other countries. And when you back out the Greek symbols, what is that formula? Trade deficit/imports - exactly what I said it was.

I don't know if the Deputy Press Secretary was misinformed, or is just being misleading. Either way, the Trump administration did not "literally calculate tariff and non tariff barriers" to determine the tariff rates it's imposing on other countries. As I said, it divided our trade deficit with a country by our imports with that country, and then multiplied by 0.5 (because Trump was being "lenient").

Oh, and if our trade deficit/imports with a country is less than 10%, or we have a trade surplus with a country, Trump slapped a flat 10% tariff on that country. — James Surowiecki · Apr 3, 2025

(the correspondence has additional comments/details if anyone cares)

I suppose the Trump team is free to determine/calculate whatever. Doesn't inspire much confidence. More importantly, what do you make of it?

, haggling, poor comms, people in people out, egos in the way, tip-toeing, ... I guess that's a lesson in itself.

Supporter high-ups, ministers, presidents, should have told Kyiv something in the spirit of ...

We'll give you what you need (implicitly including Wiesbaden work), provided that there will be no unacceptable civilian casualties. Internal transparency matters. Treating others well, friend or foe, will further incentivize us. The objective is an unoccupied Ukraine.

... and kept promises.

Catching up with some Zakaria interviews...

_{Fareed speaks with former Danish Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt. They discuss Vice President Vance’s recent trip to Greenland, President Trump’s desire to “purchase” the territory and the future of the US-Danish alliance.}

On GPS: Former Danish Prime Minister: ‘We have stood by America for decades’
^{— Fareed Zakaria · CNN · Mar 30, 2025 · 5m:48s}

Yep, Trump/Vance's statements just don't make sense, unless their motives lie elsewhere, e.g. natural resources. If it's minerals, then set up business with the Greenlanders.

_{Fareed speaks with Russian political philosopher Alexander Dugin, who is known to some as “Putin’s brain.” They discuss the growing alignment between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin – and the origins of Russia’s war on Ukraine.}

On GPS: Russian philosopher: ‘Putinism has won in the US’
^{— Fareed Zakaria · CNN · Mar 30, 2025 · 7m:29s}

Ough. The imperialism is hard to miss. Since Dugin's latest book is about Trump's second presidency, he must be a quick writer.

European defense is being taken seriously enough. Here's a half-hour report regarding some Estonian, Finnish, and Norwegian responses to the activities of Putin's Russia:

How Northern Europe is preparing for war with Russia
^{— Le Monde in English / youtube · Mar 15, 2025 · 30m:48s
(the original French report is pay-walled)}

Typical modus operandi of hybrid attacks mentioned in the report:

• set up social media groups, anti-Europe pages
• post stickers, flyers, conspiracy files
• organize fake protests (cost ≥ 500 €)
• cyberattacks
• bomb threats via email against schools, ports

The report is fairly recent. Additional resources have been allocated in some of these areas. I expect these efforts to continue/increase while Russia is on the offense.


Ukraine’s clandestine book club defies Russia’s push to rewrite history
^{— Peter Pomerantsev, Alina Dykhman · Guardian · Mar 22, 2025}

Micro-resistance to Russification?

75% of US scientists who answered Nature poll consider leaving
^{— Alexandra Witze · Nature · Mar 27, 2025}

3 out of 4 is high; actual numbers will be lower; packing up and moving isn't so easy, let alone to another country.
Still, some will be leaving due to the Trump administration, which might well turn out to be a(nother) loss for the US.
And, they're already deporting foreign students (2025Mar27, 2025Mar29), and some have cancelled studies in the US.
What a dumb mess.
Who does it all benefit anyway?

Trump is routinely reported as propagating 'disinformation' or 'making claims without evidence', but in plain language, he lies - repeatedly and prolifically, nearly every time he speaks. — Wayfarer

There's no doubt about the abundant dis/mal/misinformation.

Reporting on False or misleading statements by Donald Trump 4-5 years ago, which might already have been a record back then:

Reporter to Trump: 'Do you regret all the lying to Americans?'
^{— Shirish V Dáte, Brianna Keilar · CNN/youtube · Aug 14, 2020 · 4m:14s}
_{(apologies in advance if the CNN youtube goes against the rules, it's direct and relevant, though)}

When speaking with Trump followers, I found that some say "He's just trolling, you have to read him right", some dodge/divert or refuse to comment or turn my inquiry into a semantics game, some dismisses with a "They all lie" handwave (and fail to address the amount), some double down (into Alice's proverbial rabbit hole), ... I suppose Trump is free to lie, it's not illegal; it becomes a problem when lots of people (always) trust his word more than "mainstream media" or whatever. How to characterize this aspect of those people? Puzzling that it continues.


^{A standard phrase of his for years}

Following up on Sheremeta's comments posted Mar 28, 2025:

• Intimidate/threaten to gain power:
  Examples include Brad Raffensperger, Russell Bowers, Gabriel Sterling.
  Paramilitary or radical groups ready to help him?
• Consolidate power:
  He ditched JAG; there are other examples.
  Going by Project 2025? The Heritage Foundation?
• Establish police state:
  Raids, camps, deportations (crime is actually down).
  Insurrection Act? Jan 6 pardons?
• Constrain opposition:
  Overhaul of the Department of Justice and the FBI.
  Investigate/discredit district attorneys.
• Undermine free press:
  He's been saying "Fake news" for years.
  MSNBC, AP, Reuters have been hit.
  Many of his followers now just trust him.
  (By the way, he's also said "Rigged election" for years.)

Seems doubtful that he could come up with his moves by himself.
Anyway, I guess we'll see. (Though hopefully not.)

Your reality or my reality?  :chin: — Agree-to-Disagree

Earth doesn't become flat because someone thinks so.