Sometimes justice is just unavailable. You don't give up on justice because of that, though. You keep struggling, because it might become feasible tomorrow. — Tate

Completely agreed.

What is feasible in the far future is fairly wide open. The world has significantly changed from the distant past, and it is reasonable to assume can be significantly different in the far future.

The complicated part is working backwards to what is actually effective to do today to contribute to a better feasible future.

And, as you say, just hanging on in case circumstances change is morally superior to giving in. Again, total agreement there.

Furthermore, even if the "most feasible" best option had a 1% chance of success (that our chances of extinction or AI enslavement or something was 99%) ... it's still the best option.

Feasible doesn't necessarily mean probable, just at least some chance of working and not delusional.

The best moral choice is whatever the "most feasible" option is. From a moral point of view, it does not matter how probable the most feasible way to achieve the best moral objectives are, only that other choices are worse.

How I conceptualised this when I was younger was that if I agree the goal of continuing humanity was paramount, if not "the" moral imperative certainly up there and should be compatible with other moral imperatives, then it does not matter if my actions extend the continuation of humanity a billion years, a million, a thousand, a hundred, a day or a second or a micro second.

If I say continuation of humanity is a good thing, then I must choose the actions that continue humanity (on some net present value probability distribution) a second than not. If that's just consuming less resources myself, the best I can do, then so be it. If I can contribute more, great.

Regretting the immorality of humankind is one activity. Trying to understand the world is another. — Tate

Agreed.

However, what I would add to that is that the only moral goals are feasible goals.

Political realism is not an anti-moral or even amoral perspective, it's simply trying to choose the best possible achievable outcome depending on one's morality. Of course what's real and what's moral is up for debate.

What is comfortable and easy is of course to ignore both subjects, and live in a fantasy that has nothing to do with reality, and care nothing for the troubles of others.

I agree. Putin could stop any time he wants to. He continues because it's benefitting him. — Tate

Yes, this is the political realism perspective.

The core problem with Western policy is that if you're not willing to go and fight with your own armies, then, by definition, it's not a moral imperative to fight the Russians.

However, by essentially weaponising the moralising to justify as much escalation as possible, within the bounds of the common sense political realism that a avoiding a nuclear war is the actual moral imperative in the situation, you end up with this strange beast of an aborted escalation: Ukraine is encouraged, financed, supplied to fight but can't win; sanctions are half measures (not to say full measures would be effective) and may very well hurt the West more than Russia; and no diplomacy is possible as each side has paid too high a cost to let go ... Russia of real land and Ukraine of their fantasies.

Of course, people can blame Putin for equal or larger moral failings all they want, but assuming Putin "wants to expand the Empire" then Western policies have essentially been a gift to Putin -- not doing anything about the neo-Nazi's secures domestic support for the war; encouraging Ukraine to enter total war and not negotiate allows Putin to make super minimum offers that, once rejected, justify doing things the hard way, and, of course, giving Ukrainians enough support to hurt Russia ... but not enough to win in any military sense, may indeed kill some Russians but it does not effect policy makers nor the eventual outcome much -- the Russians will extract their revenge later ... or right now in shutting off the gas.

As for the actual situation in Ukraine.

The West has backed off further escalation and current weapons supplies do not seem to even match consumption rates of ammunition. The soviet calibre seem to have run out or about to (according even to Ukraine) and the West has not even supplied sufficient NATO calibre replacements.

Unfortunately, even though the West has effectively given up on Ukraine and is working on deescalation, taking ascension of Finland and Sweden in NATO as some sort of Ukrainian victory, there seems at the moment no resolution feasible of the war.

All sides can be blamed morally for that, but it is the current reality.

Since the escalation cycle has been ended by the West, Ukraine has very low possibility of military victory of any sort nor potential for a stalemate.

The media focuses on disparity of one weapons system at a time, generally content when there is some at least symbolic victory of at least some of that system being sent to Ukraine, but all this is nearly entirely meaningless if Russia has overwhelming force in both quantity and types of systems (such as air power).

For sure, Russia has not matched Western expectations of casualties of personnel and equipment in fighting small militaries in the middle east, but it seems pretty clear now that taking casualties of equipment and people is not a problem for Russia in continuing the war, and Ukrainian losses are now even admitted by Ukraine to be far higher.

Sadly, Ukrainian leadership did not see the best time for a negotiated peace was at the start (or before) the war, and completely overestimated the effective control of popularity on social media to dictate Western policy: social media popularity dictates policy insofar as it happens to already be the chosen Western policy. I think the long social media campaign by Ukraine for a no-fly zone is the best example of that; political capital and intellectual energy was spent on that rather than diplomacy or other things certainly due to the belief that enough likes and calls for the idea would result in it's implementation (rather than just humiliating "yeah, no").

Without any realistic prospect of "defeating" Russia on the battlefield, nor with sanctions, and no political possibility of compromising (which, certainly, Russia can be blamed about as well in the current situation; just the difference is they are taking territory and don't need to care as much about compromise), and without further military escalation by the West, the war will unfortunately simply drag on until Russia runs out of steam to continue advancing, which could be soon or in years to come.

In parallel to the war, as further sanctions seem now completely off the table, and the political mood now is workarounds, the global economy will simply adapt to the sanctions situation making them less and less effective over time.

In short, prognosis is more war. Sadly.

Since the situation has not really changed, there's not much further to analyse.

As predicted, the West is calibrating its support to Ukraine for a slow loss (to avoid nuclear weapons being used), and, also as predicted, the shoulder launch missiles are not effective as a basis for counter offensives or defending artillery, and the conversation has nearly completely switched to artillery and range considerations with the euphoria of the flood of Javelines and imminent victory a distant dream.

Nevertheless, propaganda would certainly degrade the conversation and I think warrant at least responding to.

Kazakhstan is apparently taking an opportunity to sneak off?

Kazakhstan withdraws from CIS agreement on currency committee – UNIAN (Jul 10, 2022) — jorndoe

Zero reason to believe this means much of anything.

Just a few months before the war Russian special forces deployed to Kazakhstan to support the Kazakhstan government against a riot / coup attempt.

End of the bromance: why Xi is wary of going to Moscow (Jul 7, 2022) — jorndoe

We have zero clue what Xi actually thinks and the idea that what the West thinks morally about things (what seems to be called "politics" in this article) actually matters to Xi is farcical.

Furthermore, Russia has the second largest arms industry in the world and is trained on all its own equipment, has no shortage of equipment, and mostly Chinese arms are copies of Russian / Soviet designs (often under license). There is zero reason to believe Russia could even make any effective use of arms coming from China.

What Russia needs from China are industrial equipment, industrial services and IT services and systems, and as long as it can get this from China then sanctions have essentially no chance of causing any major disruption to the Russian economy (may cause a recession and lot's of inconvenience, but that's very different to critical capital equipments and infrastructure and industrial maintenance services being unavailable).

Chechen parliament speaker Magomed Daudov says that first and foremost, Chechen battalions in Ukraine are fighting a jihad to defend Islam. — jorndoe

You can find not only US state senators and congress people, but also at the federal level, who have said all sorts of absolutely crazy and un realistic things.

It would be maybe worth discussing if it was Kadyrov, but even then it doesn't really matter much either, if it's just sabre rattling and exaggeration and playing to his base.

None of this seems to have much relevance at all nor form part of any thesis.

If you just want to drop in little trivia or propaganda, supporting no argument just "lookie here" and "oh, over there", just go on twitter or write a blog.

And should I remind that some people on this thread seemed to be openly and triumphiantly believed Russia and enjoyed smirking at US alarms: — ssu

I've read the first few pages of the thread before the invasion, and I don't see anyone Triumphantly believing Russia.

Mostly people seem to expect the war will happen, and are worried of escalation.

I guess this phrase could be interpreted as "fizzling out" meaning the war doesn't happen.

I think this will fizzle out. US will back off eventually and pretend they didn’t (kind of like Vietnam). — I like sushi

... or ... or ... could be interpreted to represent exactly what's happening now.

I don't give a fuck about human life.
— Merkwurdichliebe

Some people here do, and they might found your cynicism offensive. Just so you know. — Olivier5

Says the guy who thinks NATO handing Ukraine a few Nukes under the table to nuke Moscow and St. Petersburg is A. a good idea and B. Russia would be like "oh my, you got us! the ol' nukes under the table ploy, plausible deniability, we can't retaliate, untouchable".

I'm not sure about that how much panic there is. It's just usually that when you don't have anything to say, any actual objections on the topic, anything to counter the arguments, some people then resort to ad hominems. — ssu

Oh, you mean ad hominems like:

↪boethius That you are a professional propagandist. — Olivier5

It's just a form of escapism from the resident FSB influencer here, i.e. boethius. Nothing more. — Olivier5

↪boethius I'm just pointing at what I perceive as an important difference between other "Ukraine antagonists" here and you: they are amateurs, while you're a professional, IMO. — Olivier5

As pathetic desperation of people that "don't have anything to say, any actual objections on the topic, anything to counter the arguments"?

Or ... not these ad hominems?

But if nuclear weapons are only to be used as an option for Russia if they feel an existential risk, then there's no risk. — Christoffer

... So when the use of nuclear weapons is inconvenient to your position, then there's simply no risk ... based on Russia's lying word about "existential threat" ... which is up for interpretation anyways.

In short, if Russia keeps its word (about policies it could change anytime anyways), according to you, then there's no risk?

The only one holding the cards here is Russia, if they want to annihilate themselves that's up to them, but even in their battlefield stupidity and imperial fantasies, they don't seem that stupid. — Christoffer

Ah ... I get it now, Russian's are stupid right up until the moment it's convenient to believe they aren't "that stupid" the moment that's convenient for you to believe.

Stay within your borders and fix your shit, until then we won't be fooled into some surprise attack, we will keep our guns aimed at our borders until you grow up from your toxic fantasies. — Christoffer

Maybe do some very basic geopolitical research.

Whether Russia invasion of Ukraine (to get water to Crimea and do other strategic things) turns out in the end to be a good idea or bad idea from a geopolitical point of view ... the "grow up" theory of international relations is new to me.

How did it apply to US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq ... or were you dismissively telling the US to "grow up" the whole time, and they finally listened and have "grown up" from their toxic fantasies of controlling middle east resources since retreating from Afghanistan last year?

They learned their lesson and now you are 100% behind these "adults" teaching the Kremlin trouble making "rebels" the same lesson?

Why would we let Russia ever get to the point of trying? — Christoffer

We agree there's basically zero danger right now or for the foreseeable future.

We agree that Russia may likely win in Ukraine, survive economically, rebuild its military stronger and better than it was before, and, therefore, could be a credible threat to Sweden at some point in the future.

Therefore, the risk of Russian military, economic and diplomatic victory over Ukraine should be taken seriously, and mitigated by joining NATO.

Even if all this we both agree on is true, the counter arguments are simply the same ones from the cold war, that being in NATO guarantees being targeted by nukes in a nuclear war, NATO having more land border with Russia increases (rather than decreases) the likelihood of nuclear war, which one is now a guaranteed nuclear strike target.

Of course, the rebuttal to that would be that major Finnish and Swedish cities are already targeted by nuclear weapons as Russia sees them as functionally part of the West anyways, in which maybe there is some marginal benefit to be in NATO anyways if Russia sees it that way anyways.

This argument can go back and forth.

The rebuttal to this rebuttal, that Sweden and Finland are already nuclear strike targets, is that the benefits are therefor only analytic edge cases and the optimum cost-benefit would be to reduce likelihood of nuclear war overall, which joining NATO increases rather than decreases.

To which is countered that more countries joining NATO lowers, rather than increases, chances of nuclear war, and so on and so forth.

If we're talking about some distant future where the context has radically changed and Russia wants and feels it can invade Finland and / or Sweden with conventional or even nuclear weapons, it's possible that NATO is a deterrent for that ... or it's possible that NATO is not a deterrent for that in this new future context. Indeed, being in NATO may actually increase the likelihood of an attack designed to demonstrate that NATO article 5 is not a credible deterrent anymore.

The general problem of nuclear weapons is that it's rational to cede to nuclear blackmail. For instance, if Russia dropped nuclear weapons on Finland and Sweden today or even the day after they join NATO, it still remains completely rational for the US, UK and France to not attack Russia with nuclear weapons, fearing a nuclear counter attack.

Which is why "madman theory" was developed by the Americans in the cold war, as the only way for nuclear deterrence to work (especially in covering other countries by your nuclear retaliation umbrella ... which Article 5 doesn't quite do), is that you are willing to do the irrational thing and launch nuclear weapons even if it is irrational to sacrifice most or all of your citizens that would not otherwise be harmed, due to a paragraph on a piece of paper.

Why the Western press calling Putin and the Kremlin insane is actually a strategically optimum favour (from a nuclear rivalry point of view, that we don't necessarily need, but NATO has insisted on us having), as it allows the Kremlin to play Kissinger's madman playbook without even trying very hard (American's had to spend significant effort to convince the Soviets they were cowboy crazy enough to launch a first strike if they woke up and felt like it).

Now they won't. Without Nato perhaps as a flank position for missile and weapon placement on Gotland when their military has been built up again, but now that we're about to join Nato they won't, which is the point. — Christoffer

Ok ... well then, when were they going to invade before?

And how does this concern for Finland and Sweden square with the idea Russia is losing in Ukraine?

If Russia can't even beat Ukraine, why would Finland and Sweden be in any danger at any point?

This morning, the CNN headline was basically "Ukraine reports Russia is taking heavy losses".

The headline right now is:

Ukrainian forces reach border near Kharkiv: 'Mr. President, we made it!'

Skipping over this front page, first headline news article starts with "A Ukrainian unit fighting north of Kharkiv says it has reached the Russian border. According to Ukrainian officials," with zero verification, aka. journalism of any kind, just whatever Ukraine says is reported immediately as front page headlines ... where have they "made it" too?

There's no reason to assume the Kharkiv positions are strategically important. It can be claimed that this is a prelude to strategic gains, that Ukraine is "about" to win, etc. but we've been hearing that every day for literally 3 months.

If Russia is intent on consolidating the gains so using only "contract" professional soldiers, and not conquer and passify Karkhiv with troops it doesn't have, then consolidating defensive lines makes sense, and these Ukrainian troops haven't "made it" to anywhere important.

They could invade Russia (let's just ignore there was plenty other parts of border to do that all this time) ... that then gives the Kremlin the mobilisation card (the Kremlin is so far playing by Russia's legal rules as far as possible).

Now, some "pro-Ukrainians" here seem to think that escalating further total war with Russia—even to the point of NATO slipping Ukraine a few nukes on the downlow to casually nuke Moscow and St. Petersburg—is a good thing.

That harming Russia, even if they don't lose but are just harmed according to our standards and not the Kremlins standards (which we don't even know how things are being evaluated), is justified whatever the cost to Ukraine.

People should really think longer, in my opinion, of non-Ukrainians holding this position that any and all harms to Russia, even nuking Moscow, is justified for Ukrainians to carry out, regardless of the cost to themselves.

A position that basically reduces to: Do what we want and cheer for, without any cost-benefit analysis of any kind, ever!! Do it!! Dot it for the vine!!

And you were able to deduce all this from your armchair?

Impressive. Most impressive.

When do you expect Russia will be invading Sweden?

Edit: BTW, I had some older friends over one of whom was a fighter pilot in the Dutch elite squadron and worked a lot with NATO. He still has contacts and it looks like a sure win for Ukraine now. — Benkei

I'm confused here. You say 'win' and then ask if they ought push for Donbass and Crimea. How's that a win? Russia comes in wanting control over Donbass and Crimea, it gets control over Donbass and Crimea. That doesn't sound like a win. What am I missing? — Isaac

Was about to post the same sentiment as @Isaac, just with also a map:



The black lines are what Russia controlled before the recent invasion, and Zelensky's own standard is removing Russia from all Urkainian pre-2014 territory, including Crimea, which no one seems to believe is going to happen (at least any time soon).

So ... where do these standards of Ukraine "winning" come from?

Now, jorndoe seems to believe the standard pro-diplomacy partisans such as my self have set for Russia is:

↪boethius, you continue to describe Putin's regime like an ("immune"/"untouchable") automaton bombing-machine, and, in that context, Ukrainians as meek humans (in contrast) that should just surrender. — jorndoe

And therefore anything less than this is Ukraine "winning" ... but, I have said repeatedly that Russians could have disastrous morale collapse any minute and be routed on all fronts, just as has been predicted since the start of the war by Western media.

It's still the case now, that Russians could be routed from all fronts.

However, as it stands, Russia has occupied and also passified a large chunk of territory; in particular, forming a land bridge to Crimea and also securing the water canal as Kehrson, which are pretty big strategic victories in the Ukraine theatre.

The only evidence for "strategic defeat" is simply ex-CIA type people saying so, in the context of current CIA people unironically saying Ukraine is "winning" the information war and the CIA is just an unbiased third party impartial investigative reporter of these events.

As for the actual strategic situation ... we still don't even know what the Kremlin is trying to accomplish strategically (other than, for sure, a land bridge and canal opening, which they's done).

For example, if the Russians wanted to bait Ukraine into a total war posture, that's happened.

Rather, seems the narrative is changing to Finland and Sweden joining NATO is strategic defeat of Russia, but if Russia wasn't planning to conquer Finland and Sweden then this doesn't really change much strategically, unless Finland and Sweden wanted to join NATO to then invade Russia ... but that seems unlikely.

What seems more likely, is that we are in a phase of the conflict where both NATO and Russia are convincing their respective audiences that their winning / have won.

This could be the prelude of de-escalation, which I would guess both NATO and Russia both want at this point ... or ... a lot more escalation, especially as it seems Ukraine--at least as represented by Zelensky--has no motivation to do.

However, it's unclear if Zelensky has any further escalation options, which would leave the conflict in a stalemate and not a "victory" for Ukraine.

The West portrays stalemate as a Russian "loss", but if the stalemate involves Russia sitting on the critical assets it wanted, the analysis doesn't make sense to me.

Currently, as the map above shows, there's only a small portion of the Dombas left in Ukrainian control, and the media has portrayed this small holdout as a Russian "loss" rather than conquering the rest of the Dombas as a Russian victory so far.

Of course, it would be a morale booster and show of strength for Russia to conquer that last piece of territory, but it hardly seems like a microcosm for the whole war.

Now, if Ukraine started to take strategically critical positions such as Kershon or then retake Mariupole (in particular when there were thousands of Ukrainian and Azov defenders), that would be one thing.

As it stands, considering the troop levels Russia committed to the conflict, the current results seem basically the maximum territory they could aim to conquer and passify ... and, just so happens, the "ambitious" side of the land-grabs experts were speculating before the war.

For, keep in mind, Russia has not mobilised to total war, which would vastly increase its war fighting capability but would have immense domestic political and economic consequences (Russians view conscription as solely for self-defence, and mobilising conscripts removes people from critical civilian roles that they were previously doing).

Which leaves a cost-benefit analysis of whether these Russian gains came at reasonable or unreasonable costs.

Ukraine, as immediately repeated by the Western press, claim that Russian losses have been excessive.

But we don't actually know.

Neither do we know Ukrainian losses.

Who is attritting who we don't actually know.

So... that leaves you getting your information from the Russians. Right. :snicker: — ssu

We've already gone over this: it's entirely possible both sides are engaged in propaganda and we should be skeptical of both. Once upon a time you mentioned yourself repeatedly the fog of war.

But I guess some will just continue with NATO bashing and telling how evil the US is. — ssu

Yes, if NATO baited Ukraine into a total war posture by:

1. Letting Ukraine believe it's going to be able to join NATO over an entire decade that Russia simply responded by preparing both to invade Ukaine and survive sanctions.

3. Keeping a "public" position that the door is open for Ukraine (lying to the whole world) rather than say the truth that Ukraine will not join NATO and so allow both Ukrainians, the region and international diplomacy a chance to deal with that fact. Yes, Zelensky is also a liar on this point, but he's only 1 with zero political experience in a severely corrupt system, whereas NATO is an entire institution made up of nation states that pretend to be the most moral agents with the best values and the least corruption on the planet. You can say "of course NATO won't say publicly the truth that Ukraine won't be allowed to join, that would be embarrassing!" but why would it be embarrassing? Only because NATO said Ukraine would be able to join, which turned out not to be true even according to NATO, so NATO is prepared to have tens of thousands of Ukrainians die rather than admit a mistake and tell the truth ... something it now says it's intelligence agencies have gone full hippy and and embraced radical transparency so you know everything that "leaks" is the god's honest truth and has nothing to do with any "information warfare" that, according to the CIA, it's the god's honest trust their helping Ukraine with and winning!

3. Providing enough arms and information support to maintain a total war situation in Ukraine ... but not intervention that would have a chance of actually defeating the Russians, for the sake of justifying sanctions that likewise won't defeat the Russians but happen to make American fracking profitable for the first time ... and maybe for the long term!

4. Encouraging Zelensky to reject peace terms (both through teasing things like a "no fly zone" and, seemingly, just flying to Kiev and telling him to keep fighting a la Boris Johnson, maybe with a little information warfare to prove Russia is "pure evil" on scant evidence sprinkled into the mix, as well as repeating everything he says as truth with zero criticism or scrutiny of any kind at a level reserved usually only for deities with respect to their zealots in relation to their priests) at each point of the war it seemed deescalation was possible. The first week had super light casualties and Ukraine did not topple, and there's no reason to believe Russia's offer (of the making the status quo before the war de jure) wasn't genuine, which exactly what "showing the will to fight" of a smaller power invaded by a larger power is supposed to accomplish: better peace terms than total capitulation while also avoiding the insanely massive harms of total war against a larger foe.

However, more importantly, NATO institutions, under US leadership, are currently the main instigators and maintainers of global ecological collapse.

This is no longer WWII or the cold war where there is some transcendental value (such as freedom and democracy) that the West represents and can excuse some "bad apples" and "mistakes" happening. Arguments, in the context of WWII and the cold war, I agree with in that context.

However, the health and safety of all ecosystems easily transcends freedom and democracy, which, through globalisation, we can also bring into question anyways (the West effectively governs vast areas of the globe without representations -- a very different situation to the largely isolationist America before WWII; which, granted still lot's to criticise such as the genocide of the native Americans, but we may nevertheless see pre-WWII American democracy as a better system than the alternative empires, monarchies and dictatorships, in particular the Nazi's and yes even the Soviets, that can't be said to be doing any better on the genocide front. Aka. the tribute system effectuated through the USD and asymmetric trade policies often implemented at the end of a barrel are taxation without representation, rendering the larger political system an Aristocratic one with geo-segregation of the aristocrats into clubs and quorums they call democracy; indeed, a nearly identical replication of the Athenian concept of democracy, rendering Western claims to that tradition far from ironic).

Now, we say Nazi's were evil for doing a genocide. Pause to think a little and keep in mind the Nazi's said they weren't evil but had just cause and from their point of view the "Allies" were evil.

The West destroys the whole world, perpetrates a genocide on all people's and the vast majority of life, and you think our pointing to that as obvious evil is caricature?

The only retort to this I ever hear is "well, yeah, maybe that's so, but the West has done good deeds in the past".

So have the Russians.

And, as for today, in terms of what actually matters, all life on earth, the Russians just so happen to be doing better than the West: they consume less—unintended moral dividends of centuries of inefficient economic systems—but, more importantly, Russian crude oil is far more ecologically friendly than tar sands and Russian gas far more ecological friendly than fracked gas. So, if we say our transcendent values (by no means perfect but "better") excused all misdeeds in WWII and the cold war (such as dropping nukes on civilians and then later agent orange and a long and fine tradition of torture), the Russian ecological policies (by no means perfect but likewise "better") stands to reason excuses all their miss-deeds according to our own moral system. If Vietnam didn't make US evil for these apologetic reasons of otherwise "doing better" on the transcendent planes of moralising, then the invasion of Ukraine likewise doesn't make Russia evil according to the Wests own dominant ethical system. The Russian's green hand washes its war hand, just as the West washed itself with a free hand in times long past.

Take your own advice: stop cheering the Russians and enlist on their side. Then you get to rape and torture innocent folks yourself rather than vicariously. — Olivier5

I'm not cheering the Russians.

I have no problem saying maybe Ukrainians have just cause, but also maybe the Russians have just cause, maybe neither has just cause or maybe both have just cause.

My position is a negotiated peace is better for Ukrainians, Russians, Europeans, Americans and the whole world, than continued warfare, and a negotiated peace requires discussion and compromise.

The people cheerleading Ukrainians to fight to the last, either as a fanatical gesture or bravery or then useful proxy to US power, which definitely seems your position, should either clearly state they are using Ukraine as a proxy to do their dirty work with minimum harm to themselves or then clearly state their hypocrisy of the Ukrainian fight essentially pure just cause, a moral imperative to fight the Russians as they are so evil, but not going to fight themselves.

I do not state the Ukrainians "should be fought". As an external party I the "should" statement that I view applying to myself is promoting a negotiated peace and criticising the government structures that take actions in my name (participate in the whole "democracy" thing rather than slink away from it like a coward).

You clearly state the Russians "should be fought" ... so ... go fight then.

You say Zelensky is a hero and wise and moral: hear his call to go and fight.

Otherwise, I'm pretty sure Dante missed a few levels to get to people "brave" on social media but cowards in the real world, for the simple fact social media didn't exist at the time.

Or, are people upset—literally labelling anyone that disagrees with them FSB agents and "propagandists", professional ... or amateur!?—because the entire internet isn't their safe space but they feel it should be?

A safe space they are flummoxed to see somehow the moderators haven't created for them but have kept things "low quality" ... well, if so, why engage in low quality debate?

And for those who don't think it's fair to talk about nukes ... as obviously Russia could just Nuke Ukraine and win that way and obviously no one would be saying Ukraine "won" anything if they get nuked, but, because recognising that makes the idea Ukraine can "win" nonsensical and the whole propaganda machine around Ukraine "winning" completely stupid, first do some of the most basic possible youtube research:



However, also try to square the idea Putin won't use nukes with the belief Putin is a madman, incompetent, war criminal.

If using nukes is a war crime ... then certainly Putin the war criminal won't be bothered by that?

If Putin is a madman ... then certainly using nukes in Ukraine, running the very small risk NATO would nuke Russia in return would be a mad thing to do?

If there's some "reasons" Russia shouldn't use nukes to win ... shouldn't a strategic incompetent not see such reasons and therefore mistakingly use nukes anyways?

What's even the argument?

That Putin is a blood thirsty erratic, cabin feverish barbarian ... but also savvy enough to know that Western media would "really not like him, like for realz this time, like totally, still have him at maximum Hitler level but, like, actually going to scold him a lot more now" if he used nukes in Ukraine?

Now, if the counter argument is that the talk of war criminal, incompetent and madman are all for propaganda purposes, just "simple myths" that Ukrainians need to keep fighting the good fight they are too simple minded to understand if it's for mythical purposes or not ... then what's the point of the existential proxy war with Russia again?

An existential war that stays a proxy war precisely due to the fear of nukes in the first place.

In other words: NATO won't support Ukraine with any actual skin in the game, boots on the ground, won't actually "stand" with an ally as it doesn't have the "will" to do so, but instead bends over backwards to keep buying Russian resources (not just gas and oil) ... and when questioned of why NATO isn't fighting itself the good fight it says must be fought, the answer is always quite clearly: nuclear weapons, let's not lose our heads!

However, when it's pointed out that Ukraine might get nuked due to NATO propping up a puppet to engage Ukraine in total war and reject all peace terms ... what's the answer?

Has NATO said it will nuke Russia if Russia nukes Ukraine because Ukraine is a friend, ally, a good country with a righteous cause that of course is accepted in NATO right away to benefit from collective defense in a meaningful way?

No, it has not.

Russia has a free hand to nuke Ukraine as far as any NATO comments are concerned, and NATO has absolutely zero reason to retaliate against Russia for an attack against ... well, not NATO, I think that's been made abundantly clear in all this: Ukraine is not in NATO, just doing what NATO wants.

So, if you think things through, if NATO is a "real friend" but just not a real friend, then the calculation is as follows:

Calculation 1:
Ukraine cannot actually win or it will get nuked, and even a stalemate may result in nukes, so Russia must be allowed to win, just with significant losses that are easy to calibrate by regulating the weapons and intelligence sent to Ukraine ... just, of course because we're nice people, not so significant that it may cause the Russians to say "fuck it, let's drop a nuke or two in order to save lives; just as the Americans did on Japan, and now their best buds!", but still, scrumptiously significant losses we can really lick our lips over and be proud.

Calculation 2:
Ukraine cannot be allowed to accept peace terms and so all behind the scenes negotiation between the major powers must be sabotaged by just providing a play by play in the mass media of anyone who does talk to Putin, as well as just publicly state all negotiation must go through Zelensky, who has zero political experience and is easy to manipulate and a reckless lose cannon anyways. Of course, massive amounts of propaganda is needed to make people believe that romcom level of political analysis and ethical arguments are serious diplomatic positions of nation-states.

Calculation 3:
Sanctions must be enough to hurt the Russian economy ... but ... just ... not ... quite ... enough ... that there's still not plenty of money rolling in so Russia is still better off winning the war slowly as we allow them to do, than use nuclear weapons. We're still paying Russia to not drop nukes at the end of the day ... unless ... if and when we want that to change.

Calculation 4:
What's so bad about Russia dropping nukes in Ukraine? We've got all these Ukrainians killed so far, what's the difference between more Ukrainians dying just with nukes instead of conventional weapons? You know, when we really think about needing to consolidate US hegemony over those still disposed to US hegemony, the hegemonied. Could anything else really bring us together better than the warm radioactive glow of Ukraine? For, like, is it just me, or when it's time to wind this thing down, wouldn't it be best to go out with a bang? Wouldn't Russia winning with nukes be a moral victory for us? If they are going to win, maybe it's best they win with nukes, so any reproachment between the US sphere of influence and whatever's happening over there in the East is no longer conceivable by our "allies" (which, obviously doesn't include Ukraine if everyone's thinking what I'm thinking, but, you know, the other ones).

Try peace-mongering Putin. :smile: (it's a "truth or dare") — jorndoe

Peace mongering is a play on words, which obviously escapes you.

Peace mongering is a term to describe this new inverted media landscape where people who advocate peace are doing the real violence to Ukraine.

That supporting war and weapons being pumped into Ukraine is just common sense and unquestioned support for Ukrainians, whether they be alive or dead. It's called propaganda ... or is the word "consensus". So hard to keep track of these things.

And where those promoting peace are now peace mongers and presented as literally wishing the death of Ukrainians for even thinking about ways to stop the war, those supporting war and violence, the more escalation the merrier, are now presented as basically "war hippies". The CIA itself has been "experimenting" with radical hippy transparency, just "sharing what it knows" with the world in pursuit of truth.

It's truly amazing how quickly people's brains can be rewired.

Be that as it may, I do not see what your links are attempting to show.

As has been said many, many times, if you think Ukraine is fighting a holy and just war and must and should be fought, whether they can win or not: go fight in said war you say should be fought.

And it is not a rhetorical question, many have "heard the call" and have gone.

Why do you press down on buttons of a key board, when you can be pressing buttons on a weapon system in Ukraine?

Yet you and and and others, are here prattling away as if the battle is really fought on social media.

But look around you, there is no actual fighting here, we are talking.

Which makes sense for people who believe that talking and ending the war through an exchange of words—words, also known as peace terms, that are obviously up for discussion in such a process—is preferable to more bloodshed.

However, I honestly do not get how it makes sense for those here that wish to fight the Russians ... but are not fighting the Russians right now ... despite their hero Zelensky inviting them to do so.

Why cheer on from a distance when you can partake directly of the cup of the glory of Ukraine? Taste death in all its nuance and horrid splendor?

And the Ukrainians aren't bending over. And are willing to use force to defend themselves. :shrug:
But, getting together at the negotiation table (or diplomacy) surely is desirable. Let's not try to stop that. — jorndoe

Sure, Ukrainian's can use force.

Obviously, Russians can also use force.

If Zelensky does not know how to do diplomacy in a non-farcical way, that's Ukraine's problem ... unless there is no reason to do diplomacy and farcical demands are simply to taunt the enemy. No need for diplomacy if you can get what you want by force. Totally coherent. Likewise for Russia.

If you want things to be resolved by force and not words ... why do you give us words rather than force?

What do you seek to accomplish with your words?

Clearly it's not a negotiated peace, so if force is the answer why add pathetic words to the internet rather than join your own force to that of Ukraine.

Or are you just noting that in a war of this kind one side will take some or all the territory of the other, and you're just admonishing such a process happening come what may.

We've been told Ukraine is "winning" in some way since a few days after the war started—that not losing in 72 hours was somehow "winning"—and now it's being said that sometime in June Ukraine will be able to "counter offensive" with heavy weapons (not ATGM's ... hmm, what happened to those being enough?).

If there is no reason to make peace, only demand total capitulation and continue fighting when that offer is rejected, then, sure, shrug, sigh: let them fight.

Ukraine can fight as you say, use the force it has. Totally accurate.

Russia can do likewise, use the force it has. Equally accurate. Just, a slight difference in that Russia has nukes.

So, if Ukraine did turn the tide sometime in June or later as we're being told now it will, what reason in that scenario do you propose for Russia to bend over, rather than have the "will" to fight with nukes as it has them and clearly can use them?

If your reasoning for Ukraines fighting is because they can, certainly your reasoning for Russia using nukes is because it can.

Choosing devastating war over diplomacy (even including concessions) is not the 'noble' choice. It's just fucking psychopathic. A sane nation does not escalate every conflict to full blown war just to 'teach them a lesson' — Isaac

... are we ... are we the peace mongers?

I'm just pointing at what I perceive as an important difference between other "Ukraine antagonists" here and you: they are amateurs, while you're a professional, IMO. — Olivier5

Ah yes, by promoting peace and being appalled at Ukrainians dying and children being traumatised (and also dying) and wanting the horrors of war to stop by some negotiated peace ... I am "antagonistic" to Ukrainians.

Wanting peace is the real violence in this sordid affair?

But remind us again, the advantages to Ukrainians of NATO fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian, and the disadvantages of dialogue and peace.

I haven't said anything about thresholds. Russians can be as nazi as they want to; no problem for me, as long as they don't invade their neighbours. — Olivier5

You're really asserting you have not supported the idea there are not enough Nazi's in Ukraine? Just fringe, Nazi's in every country, etc.?

Be that as it may, doesn't this also apply to Ukraine and their invasion of Dombass after they declared independence? Spearheaded by Azov battalion, isn't this Nazi's--granted, being as Nazi as they like--literally invading their neighbour's in Dombass?

What about these actions? Shouldn't Dombass have the right to self determination and to make defensive alliances with who they wish? Shouldn't Russia honour such alliance just as NATO should honour it's commitments to Ukraine if Ukraine was in NATO (which it isn't)?

You have all these ad hominem attacks against "Russians" such as:

The extreme nationalism, the invention of a grand national destiny, the banalisation of violence and love of brutality verging on sadism, a hatred for representative democracy, suspicion towards Jews, extensive use of propaganda, all these are quite typical. — Olivier5

Which ... noted, you seem to be saying here Nazi's were only "suspicious" towards Jews.

and,

It's happening now in Ukraine. Torture. Rape. Murder. That's what Russians do. Violence is the only language they will understand. — Olivier5

While also supporting Ukrainian "myth making" or whatever you want to call it.

How do we know these ad hominems against the Russians aren't likewise myths justified by the "need" to boost Ukrainian morale?

The extreme nationalism, the invention of a grand national destiny, the banalisation of violence and love of brutality verging on sadism, a hatred for representative democracy, suspicion towards Jews, extensive use of propaganda, all these are quite typical. — Olivier5

All these qualities can be in other forms of authoritarianism. Jihadist extremists I would say have all these qualities. You may quibble that something like "Islamic State" is not a "nation", but want to recreate a supra-national pan-Arabic caliphate ... well the Nazi's too had a "pan aryan" view of things and creation of a "Reich" far beyond the borders of the German "nation".

However, jihadist extremists, whether better or worse than Nazi's, represent a distinct ideology to Naziism. Authoritarian ideologies often share a lot in common ... doesn't make them the same thing.

But where have your goal posts even moved to?

How many Nazi's is too many Nazi's with too much power, is an independent and stand alone question.

Once answered, we can then evaluate if Ukraine has too many Nazis and also whether Russia has too many Nazis.

If Ukraine and Russia have too many Nazis, then maybe them fighting it out is a good thing for Nazis to die on each side, and it's very clever to pump in as many arms as possible to ensure as many Ukrainians and Russians die as possible: that both sides are wrong, and therefore it's good that they fight each other and maintained in mutually destructive combat forever: defeat the Nazi's in Ukraine by giving them the tools of their own demise.

It could be a coherent argument.

But, to make any argument about it at all, we need this threshold of too many Nazis. People, including yourself, have stated the threshold isn't met ... ok, should be easy to say what the threshold is then.

Maybe Wagner group is both Nazi enough and passes the hypothesized threshold, which people here claim to know but never deliver the goods.

Pointing out: the argument that just war justifies lies, that can always be repackaged as "myths", begs the question of whether the reasons for the just war itself is a lie ... is not "pro" anyone; it's first order analysis of what people say.

If the ghost of Kiev was a justified "information campaign" to boost Ukrainian and pro-Ukrainian morale ... maybe the just cause reasons for the war are likewise false and only myths. Certainly discovering the war is not just would be bad for morale ... so, can't have that if the war is assumed to be justified.

Which is the problem of the justified lie: why trust the reasons for that justice in the first place?

Where did you mention the fact that Putin is himself a Nazi? — Olivier5

I don't see the evidence for it ... and it seems incompatible with the idea Putin is a KGB soviet reactionary ... so I don't see how it's supposed to even fit in "information warfare" campaign.

However, noted that "anyone you don't like", such as Putin, can be called a Nazi without evidence for it. Lot's of flavours of authoritarianism, doesn't make every authoritarian a Nazi nor that other forms of authoritarianism can be bad in themselves, on their own merits, without also therefore being Nazis.

But people who literally tattoo swastikas on themselves and call themselves aryans and have SS symbols on themselves and their flag ... reported as Nazis for years by multiple media, big and small (that we're now told to trust, at least the big ones, on face value in their repeating what Ukraine says everyday), is "controversial" to call Nazi's today.

I tend to feel free, generally, and do not need your authorization for it. — Olivier5

Sure, great.

For instance, you've omitted the presence of a nazi-like ideology in Putin -- he's clearly a nazi himself -- and the fact that the Wagner group funded by Putin is headed by nazis. — Olivier5

This has not been omitted, but already been discussed. If Putin was too a Nazi, or supporting Nazi's, and so on, then that would only make him a hypocrite, not change the situation in Ukraine and the questions I've asked.

It's also been discussed at length that Naziism is a form of authoritarianism, but not all authoritarians are Nazi's, nor even, necessarily, bad.

Yes, it's an important part of it, of course, when carefully chosen. — Olivier5

So ... pointing out the Western media accidentally undermining it's own propaganda today (because no one got the memo that Azov battalion was "hands off" at the time, so people naively assumed Nazi's was a bad thing) ... is itself propaganda.

But ok, let's play your game, you say the material I post is carefully chosen, feel free to provide the things I've omitted to make the "true picture" according to you.

People then say "What Nazi's? What Nazi's? What are Nazi's? Who's a Nazi?"

I post our own Western media (who we're now told to believe on face value repeating "information warfare" of Ukraine) ... investigating these Nazi's.

Where as your response explaining these aren't the Nazis you're looking for?

Or then explaining your standard of what "enough Nazis" would be, and that what's in these videos is clearly "not enough of them"?

The backlash is people getting into severe cognitive dissonance which disrupts the war horny trance like state they were in previously, when they encounter the fact the "neo-Nazi" problem isn't some fringe skinheads in some seedy bar, but a whole institution.

Which, please pay attention to the "black sun" which doesn't even have any apologist "it's just a rune" or "ancient Sanskrit symbol" whatever explanation, but literally created by the SS for the SS. — boethius

And also discover, at least the US and Canada (... maybe not other NATO members like Germany, who are the experts on neo-Nazi's after all and arbitrate whether they exist or not in today's media landscape) exposed to be breaking their own laws, which was military aid was contingent on irregular forces not doing any fighting or getting any weapons or ammunition ... which journalists could just go debunk in like, a single day's investigation? — boethius

And discover ... that when people talk about this problem going back to 2014 ... there's times and BBC reportings on this very thing: — boethius

January First, is one of the most important days in their callender. It marks the birth of Stepan Bandera, the leader of the Ukrainian partisan forces during the second world war.

The rally was organized by the far right Svoboda Party. Protests marched amidst a river of torches, with signs saying "Ukraine above all else".

But for many in Ukraine and abroad, Bandera's legacy is controversial. His group, the organization of Ukrainian Nationalists sided with Nazi German forces [but fortunately we have modern Germany to tell us there's no connection!] before breaking with them later in the war. Western Historians also say that his followers carried out massacres of Polish and Jewish civilians.

[... interview with a guy explaining the importance of Stepan Bandera's birthday party ]

Ukraine is a deeply divided country, however, and many in its East and South consider the party to be extremist. Many observers say rallies like today's torch light march only add to this division [really?!?! you don't say...]. — boethius

Or discover this one which interviews the FBI talking about these terrorists training with Azov ... but ... wait, "the war on terror" doesn't extend to white terrorists training "oversees".

And has the quote (recorded on video) from one of the recruiters:

""
We're Aryans, and we will rise again
"""

But ... the president is Jewish and is allied with these forces, who don't even hate Jews all that much! So obviously you can have Nazi's if their friendly Nazi's (to your side). — boethius

This one's just adorable.
""" — boethius

Is reposting the Western media establishment own reporting your idea of "professional propaganda"?

I fear not 'opposing view points', although mass murderers and their apologists are indeed creepy. — Olivier5

Apologising for what?

I have pointed out, according to our own Western idea that appeasing the original Nazi's was a mistake and should have been proactively attacked (I agree), that, if this idea is true, some level of Nazi is enough to justify invasion. That this part of Russia's argument is of a valid form according to our own Western ideas.

I have then simply asked the question of how many Nazi's is too many Nazi's with too much power in Ukraine. If people believe that appeasing the Nazi's the first time was a mistake (even if they were not "a majority" of Germans, as is often repeated), then presumably it's a mistake now, and if there is not enough Nazi's in Ukraine, then such an argument presupposes knowing a level of too much Nazi.

I ask for this knowledge, people claim to have. I thirst and people claiming they have water give me nothing to drink.

People here say "yes, there are Nazi's in Ukraine, but not enough to justify invasion" ... well, ok, that's a statement that presupposes one can say what "enough" would be.

My own position on the subject is that we could likely debate the subject for decades (those of us who don't like Nazis).

Pointing out people have parts of their argument missing (what is "enough Nazi's"), is not apologist for Russia. Maybe there isn't enough Nazi's, but what is "enough" and how to measure it?

The rebuttal to this question is pointing out there's Nazi's in every Western country ... but that still doesn't answer the question, maybe then that's also too much and every Western country would be justified to invade.

In other words: analysis and criticism on a philosophy forum, of which people have opportunity and time to respond to and prove their point.

Ukraine's fighter pilots are vastly outnumbered by the Russians, and have become legendary - thanks in part to the story of an alleged flying ace called the "Ghost of Kyiv".

This hero is said to have downed as many as 40 enemy planes - an incredible feat in an arena where Russia controls the skies.

But now the Ukraine Air Force Command has warned on Facebook that the "Ghost of Kyiv is a superhero-legend whose character was created by Ukrainians!".

"We ask the Ukrainian community not to neglect the basic rules of information hygiene," the message said, urging people to "check the sources of information, before spreading it".

Earlier reports had named the ace as Major Stepan Tarabalka, 29. The authorities confirmed that he was killed in combat on 13 March and honoured with a Hero of Ukraine medal posthumously.

Now, the air force stresses that "Tarabalka is not 'Ghost of Kiev', and he did not hit 40 planes". — BBC

They've become legends! Thanks to lies that people believed, and their belief created the legend, but also didn't believe and actually co-wrote a new myth! ... Information Hygiene people! Because we care about the truth!

It's literally taking people for total fools a lot of this stuff.

Thanks for proving my point. — Olivier5

Proving what point?

Boethius is the true professional Putin-paid troll here. — Olivier5

You do realise that this is a pretty pathetic cope for someone afraid of engaging with opposing view points?

Or do you really believe you've made some sound argument based on zero evidence?

There are differences between them, though. Boethius is an FSB plant, no doubt in my mind about him, or he would not defend the bombing of civilians like he did. But @Isaac is just a confused, truth-abhorring cretin -- he is Gollum, not Sauron. — Olivier5

Where do I defend the bombing of civilians?

Pointed out a war crime (in the judicial sense and not internet-meme sense) requires a judicial process, is not "defending" bombing of civilians.

It just so happens that bombing civilians is not in itself a war crime according to our own Western definition; Western armies have bombed plenty of civilians since planes have been invented.

Likewise, pointing out Russia has nuclear weapons is not defending the use of nuclear weapons, just pointing out obvious facts and risks that should be taken into account.

Finally, pointing out that assuming just war justifies lying, that it therefore justifies lying about the reasons for the just war, is not defending one side or another.

My position, which has been consistent, is that my preference is peace and that only diplomacy will achieve that, for Ukrainians as much as for Russians or anyone else, and diplomacy requires understanding the other point of view.

Pointing out that the Western media repeating at face value obvious lies, like the ghost of Kiev, and then immediately praising Ukrainian information warfare and "myth making" the moment Kiev itself admits it's a lie, reduces the credibility of the Western media to zero -- that we're literally at the point of: "we're lying to you, but here why that's a good thing!" -- is not somehow incompatible with the idea that the Russians are also doing propaganda (which was already the object of a long discussion with people here refusing the idea that both Russia and Ukrainians and the US and EU are all engaged in propaganda, and whatever "seeds of truth" we can find and agree on, such as some Nazi's are in Ukraine, aren't "off limits" because it is inconvenient to the propaganda of one side or another).

Pointing out no one has actually made a coherent and complete argument explaining Ukrainian just war, that it is simply assumed by Ukrainian proponents, is not saying Russia has just cause either. As I mentioned: maybe neither has, maybe both have.

If just cause of previous wars are still debated to this day, sometimes many centuries if not millennia after they occurred, doubting the moral prescriptions of people who have zero hesitation to explain how they are lying as part of those moral prescriptions, and that's a good thing!, is pretty easy position to defend intellectually.

But, if you disagree, explain to me why it's right to believe Kiev's lies and also then immediately believe the truth that it was a lie when admitted but simultaneously believe it was right that they lied and to believe it was nevertheless true in a rewriting of my own memories that I was "co-creating" a necessary simplified myth all along.

Nazi party was founded in 1920, which is 2 years after the Finnish plane.

The Nazi Party,[a] officially the National Socialist German Workers' Party (German: Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei or NSDAP), was a far-right[7][page needed][8] political party in Germany active between 1920 and 1945 that created and supported the ideology of Nazism. — wikipedia

Additionally, it's a tiny party at the time, the symbol is a common and there would be no reason for anyone to believe the Finnish airforce is supporting some small party in Germany by using the same symbol.

It's only a "big thing" in retrospect after the Nazi's take over Germany and start WWII.

That there are Nazi sympathisers in Finland both leading up to WWII and during WWII and also after, I would not dispute. However, unlike Azov battalion, these Nazi sympathisers don't have their own institution and integration into the government.

However, this history seems largely irrelevant to the current situation (the current war is in Ukraine, the current government in Finland wanting to join NATO is very left and a long way from being far-right, the direct support for Nazi's in Ukraine comes from the US, and EU countries are simply lapdogs in this affair without much autonomy, so their internal politics is largely irrelevant in any case; the Finnish government supports Nazi's in Ukraine because they are told that's not true and told what to do, so that's the end of the political discourse about that; left or right doesn't matter and it's the same for nearly all EU countries).

In what? Do you read your own sources? The symbol had nothing to do with Hitler or Nazism. — Baden

Which, of note, Naziism had not yet been invented in 1918.

Hitler viewed Scandinavians ( + Finland) as "good aryans" and so borrowed a lot of nordic symbolism.

The basic Swastika motif not being particularly nordic though.

The swastika symbol, 卐 or 卍, today primarily recognized in the West for its use by the Nazi party,[1] is an ancient religious symbol in various Eurasian cultures. It is used as a symbol of divinity and spirituality in Indic religions, including Hinduism, Buddhism and Jainism.[2][3][4][5][6] It generally takes the form of a cross, the arms of which are of equal length and perpendicular to the adjacent arms, each bent midway at a right angle.[7][8] — wikipdia

The wikipedia lists almost the entire world under the heading "Historical uses".

Second, I wasn’t exclusively referring to the current scenario but also to the risks of escalation as one of your zealous fellows has warned all of us about — neomac

The risk is obvious.

Here are two experts discussing the very real risk of nuclear escalation, posted a few days after my comments:



The conclusion is exactly the same as mine, which is that currently only "taboo" in their words (but same concept as "breaking the ice"), is the main thing holding back use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

The other thing is that Russia is still making gains using conventional methods, and so does not "need" to use tactical nuclear weapons.

And if the situation is maintained (of steady Russian gains and occupying most of the territory it says is the goal), then there's no reason to expect Russian policy to suddenly change.

However, this is not a stable situation. The context could easily change.

To give an opposing point of view, that Putin is "bluffing", here is another commentator:



With a video literally called "Calling Russia's Nuclear Bluff".

In terms of world ending nuclear exchange, Russia isn't making that threat.

The threat is presented always in ambiguous terms, but it's pretty clear the threat to use nuclear weapons is in Ukraine, not against NATO.

As @ssu points out, the threats (or then just the nuclear weapons in themselves) have already dissuaded NATO from things like a no-fly zone and giving heavy weapons early game (to be seen if heavy weapons now are symbolic gestures or not, but clearly it was to Russia's advantage that NATO only supplied limited weapons and still only supplies limited weapons). Given the public holy furore, boots on the ground in Ukraine would have been extremely likely absent nuclear weapons. So the the very real threat of nuclear weapons has already deterred direct NATO involvement.

If Russia was to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, it extremely unlikely NATO would launch a world ending nuclear strike. People would be upset, implement whatever sanctions are left to implement, but finally accept it.

The danger to Ukraine is obvious. The danger to the world would be hyper charging nuclear proliferation.

One may postulate various geopolitical constraints, such as assuming China would be upset about Russia using nuclear weapons. However, these sorts of assumptions are tenuous. More conflict and tensions in Europe the less "pivot" happens in the East. We do not know what Xi thinks about things, or wants, now or in some new context.

From the current situation, where Russians forces have no easy way out, and are set to get pummeled for weeks on end. You are dreaming of a possible way out of this mess, and towards victory for Moscow. It will not happen, it's only a wet dream of yours. — Olivier5

Russia has nuclear weapons. Russia can use nuclear weapons to easily win battles. That is not a dream.

Claiming Ukraine will be given nuclear weapons by NATO or then could make their own nuclear weapons in a few months ... sounds familiar ... sounds really familiar.

Sounds exactly like:

From the current situation, where Ukrainian forces have no easy way out, and are currently getting pummeled for weeks on end. You are dreaming of a possible way out of this mess, and towards victory for Kyev. It will not happen, it's only a wet dream of yours.

It's just a form of escapism from the resident FSB influencer here, i.e. boethius. Nothing more. — Olivier5

You state NATO passing nukes to Ukraine to nuke Moscow and Saint Petersburg is not only plausible in some version of reality, but also that Russia would be just like "so clever" and that technically Ukraine launching NATO's nukes would matter in the slightest.

You state I'm a "FSB influencer" for saying things you don't like and have no rational response to.

Yet somehow I'm living a fantasy.

And escapism from what? Obviously Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons, and obviously from a military perspective it is completely rational to use a bigger bomb if you have a bigger bomb, and obviously the long list of political reasons that no one would be using Nukes anywhere that we could list only 3 months ago is getting thinner by the day.

How close are we to literally no political reasons left to dissuade from the use of nuclear weapons? I have not said, only that the required context maybe far closer than it seems.

Ignoring the obvious by simultaneously dismissing the risk, while also believing NATO would give Ukraine nuclear weapons in such a scenario is the escapism.

Russian nuclear weapons will basically halt any incursions into Russia proper by Ukraine. Putin doesn't have to keep large formations on his side of the border. — ssu

Exactly, in terms of military logic, it makes enormous amounts of sense, not only vis-a-vis Ukraine if they ever did successfully counter attack, but of any other bordering country to Russia ... would obviously think twice.

The Kremlin may also be start to be feeling there's a target on their back as we enter into ecological collapse, that they have what countries will be craving: arable land, water and energy ... and more than they had before.

There is now only political factors, in my opinion, preventing the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Political factors which seems less and less relevant as time goes by as far as I can see.

And Russian nuclear weapons have already done what they were supposed to do: have Joe Biden declare that under no circumstances US troops won't be deployed to Ukraine and NATO aircraft won't create a no-fly zone over Ukraine. — ssu

Agreed, standing up to a bully is only "heroic" if the bully can be beaten in a Hollywood style coming of age movie.

The truly powerful take what they want and are idolised for it.

... Take our friends the Americans ...

A tactical nuke would however put them in a position where they have nothing left in terms of diplomacy with the west. — Christoffer

You assume Russia needs diplomacy with the West.

... and that the current situation is the West handing out fig leaves or something?

Russia would solidify its existence as a criminal nation and they would probably not be able to heal any diplomatic ties for a very very long time. — Christoffer

According to "us", the West ... which, see point above, they may not care about nor their strategic partners such as China, India and co.

It's basically the nail in the coffin for Russia as a nation, slowly disintegrating down into a nation that's falling behind on any front. In 20 years, the world will have moved past them in every way, probably putting up defensive systems around the nation to block any attempts of nukes going out of it while the technological advancements outside of Russia will make them look like the stone age. — Christoffer

We're already discussed at length that affect of sanctions largely depends on the sentiment of the ordinary Russian, which as far as we know has consolidated around support for the war, as well as substitutes of all critical equipment and services from China, which as far as we know covers everything.

Many here argue for each nation to be responsible for their own development, that it's each and every independent nation's right to develop however they want. That also means that actions stretching outside of a nation can have consequences; that becoming an isolated nation is part of the internal development each independent nation is responsible for. No one is to blame for Russia's failures and how they're now treated. The rest of the world can choose however they want to interact with Russia and if they don't want to interact with them, then Russia has no right to demand anything. — Christoffer

I don't disagree with this.

Ukraine might continue to fight as long as there's material support from the west. They had massive morale going into defending their country and being able to push back the big bear Russia this much would seriously have boosted their morale even further, combined with the anger of the war crimes.

I don't think Ukraine will settle easily, they want justice for Russia's crimes and they might fight until every single Russian in Ukraine is killed, captured, or sent home. — Christoffer

"Morale" does not in itself win battles or wars.

... If you're suggesting settlement (peace terms) is the only possible resolution of the war (as nearly all wars end), then the optimum time to settle was in the early days, leveraging exactly that morale you mention to fanatically engage in chaotic total war.

Russia's reasoning doesn't matter, only their actions do. And if they use nukes, they can sit there and think that they're on top of the world, but their nation will become an isolated cesspool of decades-old technology in a nation just living through survival of national food supply and rusting cars with no actual progress. — Christoffer

Sure, maybe.

Tactical nukes won't be the same as regular nuclear weapons. — Christoffer

A tactical nuclear weapon is a regular nuclear weapon, only of smaller yield and delivery vehicle for use in battle, such as a cruise missile or even artillery shell. The word tactical simply connotes the design purpose to be aid in the winning of battles.

A strategic nuclear weapon, is an extension of as strategic bombing ... with simply a lot bigger bomb, and is not designed to win battles--delivery vehicles, such as ICBM's, may have minimum ranges of thousands of kilometres and minimum yields so large that there is no plausible battle situation where it would make sense to use--and are designed to change strategic economic factors like "cities existing".

I'm not sure what you're trying to say, but this is just a quick note for people who wonder what the difference between tactical and strategic comes from. The criticism of bombing cities to rubble far from the front lines was met with the rebuttal "it's strategic", and that nomenclature has stuck.

They continue to fail because they're stupid. Only stupid armies dig trenches in the Red forest. — Christoffer

If you put soldiers nearly anywhere they will start building trenches. It's unlikely this was some "battle plan" coming down from the top.

I honestly fail to see the Russian actions as "stupid". They may fail, now or then later as you say, but the decisions are clearly well thought out and not stupid. Ukraine has embarrassing failures as well, such as letting Russia capture "bio labs".

The consequences of the nukes in Japan should not be understated. It wasn't trivial, it was world-defining and there weren't any political or existential consequences imagined before the bombings as there were after the bombings. Historical context is very important here. — Christoffer

I did not say the use of nuclear weapons in Japan was trivial. It was, more than anything, the events that started the cold war that defined nearly the rest of the century.

However, the point of this example is that there can be a context in which ordinary people support the use of nuclear weapons. The justification of the use of nuclear weapons on Japan was to save American lives, and, faced with a equally fanatical enemy willing to fight to the death (for good reasons or bad) it may at some point make as much sense to Russians to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine for the same reasoning.

I am not saying that context currently exists, only it could be far closer than it seems.

But this isn't true, the majority is against Russia's invasion, as seen through UN's votes. — Christoffer

@Isaac already pointed out the face-value flaw in that metric.

However, more relevant metrics would be trade relations and sanctions and diplomatic pressure and sending arms to Ukraine all of which is a "West" thing. I.e. metrics of caring that actually matter and are not essentially symbolic due to Russia's security council veto in the UN.