Plus his data is all sourced. He's just giving the most clear and sensible interpretation.

Plus his data is all sourced. He's just giving the most clear and sensible interpretation. — Baden

Yep.

With just 102 cases, New Zealand is ordering a full month-long lockdown. This is the hammer. This is intelligence applied to policy. And this will work.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/kiwis-go-home-new-zealand-to-go-into-month-long-lockdown-to-fight-coronavirus

“The worst-case scenario is simply intolerable, it would represent the greatest loss of New Zealanders’ lives in our history and I will not take that chance.”

:strong:

@Hanover As I was saying about the lag. Now up to 5% from 0% and rising.

Well, that's just fuckin' sadly stoopid. :rofl: :sad: :roll:

Plus his data is all sourced. He's just giving the most clear and sensible interpretation. — Baden

A fine article. I noted one example that he gave, which was surprising:

But China’s is good too. The lengths at which it went to contain the virus are mind-boggling. For example, they had up to 1,800 teams of 5 people each tracking every infected person, everybody they got interacted with, then everybody those people interacted with, and isolating the bunch. That’s how they were able to contain the virus across a billion-people country.

This is not what Western countries have done. And now it’s too late.

Sounds incredible that China can put 9 000 people to track infected persons, but I believe it. When you just think that nearly all dangerous epidemics and pandemics have come from China, perhaps they really have had training, they have learned something and have an incentive to do something about this... especially as the country has become wealthy.

Some might remember my youngest indian was very sick after attending CES, a worldwide attended event in Las Vegas. 103* fever, dizziness, shortness of breath and he lost his sense of smell and taste.
Early January he was tested but without a COVID 19 test they ruled it as Influenza B but I doubt it was sent onto the CDC.
We have talked about herd immunity and if he did have it the other 14 students in his program got it.
I don't want him to be tested now because I am nervous about what they will want from him. 14 twenty something kids with herd immunity and do not do drugs or drink?
Worthy of studying for donors?

Oh wait, they're both bullshit. — Benkei

Are you keeping track? :razz:

With just 102 cases, New Zealand is ordering a full month-long lockdown. This is the hammer. This is intelligence applied to policy. And this will work. — Baden

With strong bipartisan support as well.

When you just think that nearly all dangerous epidemics and pandemics have come from China, perhaps they really have had training, they have learned something and have an incentive to do something about this... especially as the country has become wealthy. — ssu

I think that is right. From Pueyo's earlier article:

South Korea cases have exploded, but have you wondered why Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand or Hong Kong haven’t?

All of them were hit by SARS in 2003, and all of them learned from it. They learned how viral and lethal it could be, so they knew to take it seriously. That’s why all of their graphs, despite starting to grow much earlier, still don’t look like exponentials. — Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

They built a huge hospital in ten days. They staffed a ward with robots. They are way ahead of the game.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236777-coronavirus-hospital-ward-staffed-entirely-by-robots-opens-in-china/

Animations showing how the virus spreads with and without social distancing

When you just think that nearly all dangerous epidemics and pandemics have come from China — ssu

What? Who sold you this rubbish and why do you think this is true? H1N1 ('swine flu') was North and Central American. Zika was Brazillian. Ebola was North/West African. BSE ('mad cow') was UK. H5NX (bird flu variants) was largely of American and European providence. MERS ('camel flu') was largely Arabian. SARS, I grant, had its origin in China.

So the UK is locked down. We're only allowed to leave our houses for food, for exercise once a day, and if we can't work from home and our work is essential.

Yes, except they didn't say only if your work is essential. But only if the nature of your work means you can't work at home.

I miss the days where I was just worried about Brexit.

Yes, bring back the proroguing of parliament, those were the days.

Edit: If you look at Chart 13b - NPI Measures Per Country, you'll see that South Korea had very few travel bans and closures. That's because they were ahead of the virus in their testing and contact tracing

Also, their people are sensible and do the right thing when asked.

But I doubt they have in anyway defeated the virus, only managed to control it. Let's see how it fights back when they try to go back to business as usual.

With just 102 cases, New Zealand is ordering a full month-long lockdown. This is the hammer. This is intelligence applied to policy. And this will work.

Good on them, I almost moved there a couple of years ago, love the place. I just couldn't get used to all the rugby and beer, no antiques and the lack of culture.

It isn't easy, but South Korea (and others) have done it. — Andrew M

...and South Koreas death rate is 8 times higher than Japan, that has not done it. So that proves what?

They built a huge hospital in ten days. They staffed a ward with robots. They are way ahead of the game. — Baden

You believe news emanating from the CCP??

You believe news emanating from the CCP?? — Nobeernolife

We depend on you to tell us what to believe in. Or Scott
Adams.

You could literally livestream the building of the hospitals in Wuhan. Which I did. It was incredible.

Ok, how about gun violence? The reaction to gun violence vs coronavirus is down to mythology. I'll stand by that.

I think that the conversation moved on from here overnight. I can't think of another social scourge which has an equivalence to the pandemic. Simply because the pandemic is an exponential threat, so a stitch in time saves nine.

They built a huge hospital in ten days. They staffed a ward with robots. They are way ahead of the game. — Baden

This is true (well, I cannot verify that particular case, but the response has been huge). And this is the reason why we shouldn't be calm that China with it's huge population has had officially just few thousand cases.

SARS, I grant, had its origin in China. — StreetlightX

Start with the Black Death. Plus the "Asian flu" Influenza A H2N2 of 1956-1958, the Hong Kong flu (even if back then it was British). Yes, epidemics and pandemics emerge from various places, but the history of having to tackle these diseases are the reason why China has had to take for example zoonotic diseases far more seriously than for example Italy.

Except what you said was that 'nearly all dangerous epidemics and pandemics have come from China', which is and remains bullshit.

Fair enough. Didn't want to sound like Trump, but I guess it came out like that.

The intention was to say that they (the Chinese) have had to deal with these outbreaks and they have the resources to do that, hence they were more prepared than other countries.

Brilliant, the best cartoon I've seen in a while.

Do not waste my time with stupid comments like that. Next time I'll presume you're trolling.

It isn't easy, but South Korea (and others) have done it.
— Andrew M

...and South Koreas death rate is 8 times higher than Japan, that has not done it. So that proves what? — Nobeernolife

The deaths are due primarily to a spike in late February after a "superspreader" (patient 31) infected 43 people and the virus rapidly spread. The daily confirmed case count peaked three weeks later and has been dropping ever since - that's the evidence that comprehensive test-and-trace can work without needing lockdowns. See the timeline chart for details.

The Koreans I spoke too had voluntarily locked down because they were so scared. So, there's that too.

Coronavirus: US could become new epicentre of outbreak amid ‘very large acceleration’ in cases, WHO warns

Over 46,000 infections and 530 deaths recorded, putting America on course to overtake Italy in number of cases.

...

Authorities have suggested the US is on track to eventually overtake China’s nearly 82,000 infections.

Probably not a good idea for Trump to start easing restrictions.

The Koreans I spoke too had voluntarily locked down because they were so scared. So, there's that too. — Baden

Yes, definitely. I'm mainly thinking of the stringent travel bans and closures which are the most expensive measures.