As Putin himself said "all outcomes are acceptable"?
Western media takes it as a foregone conclusion that this was a "miscalculation" by Putin ... because it's played so poorly in the Western press and Western nations have flocked to offer moral support and a bit of hardware and economic sanctions.
However, the Kremlin has been preparing itself for this exact threat by the West since 2014, building redundancies for all critical systems and scaling up economic ties with China.
Of course, Oligarchs are punished via their Western assets ... but the Kremlin may not actually care about that, — boethius
Oh, and the most ludicrous, that "declaring" renewables are now a priority is sticking it to the Russians somehow. "In 50 to 100 years will be independent on Russian natural resources. Haha! take that Russia!". I work in the renewable energy sector ... and this idea is so insanely idiotic, it severely discredits every politician that repeats it. — boethius
The large size of Ukraine makes total occupation difficult / impossible, but, the large size of Ukraine makes a lot of land grabbing easy. For the same reason Russia can't easily occupy all of Ukraine, Ukraine cannot easily defend all of Ukraine. — boethius
The problem with the "boohoo commodity price increase global economic disaster; the war is such a terrible disaster" is that if you provide no incentive for Russia to participate in the global economy ... but are going to buy their commodities anyways, and China isn't going to leave a fellow tyrant hanging, then this isn't a "bad result" for the Kremlin. Certainly immoral to cause such a disaster, but if the world plays hardball with Putin ... what's the argument that Putin should play softball back.
And indeed, once the war is over and Western leaders are dealing with even worse inflation, people may not accept the argument "their suffering is necessary for Ukrainians to have prolonged a war for a true apex of virtue signaling on social media; literal victory through defeat" for long. — boethius
That’s why — (applause) — that’s why I came to Europe again this week with a clear and determined message for NATO, for the G7, for the European Union, for all freedom-loving nations: We must commit now to be in this fight for the long haul. We must remain unified today and tomorrow and the day after and for the years and decades to come. (Applause.)
It will not be easy. There will be costs. But it’s a price we have to pay. Because the darkness that drives autocracy is ultimately no match for the flame of liberty that lights the souls of free people everywhere. — Remarks by President Biden on the United Efforts of the Free World to Support the People of Ukraine
For the overall outcome on the war of all these measures, I personally don't see Russia losing.
Their strategy is pretty simple:
1. Keep pressure on all fronts.
2. Advance each day on weakest fronts
3. Avoid urban combat unless necessary
4. Cutoff all supply lines and wait things out
5. Build out their logistics methodically — boethius
"""
LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.
Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.
— Reuters
"""
There's zero reason to assume this offer isn't genuine.
Unless Ukraine has some way to "win", then Russia will simply implement these conditions by force. — boethius
I think Biden is actually leading the team right now and he wants to bruise Putin. — frank
The firehose of falsehood, or firehosing, is a propaganda technique in which a large number of messages are broadcast rapidly, repetitively, and continuously over multiple channels (such as news and social media) without regard for truth or consistency. An outgrowth of Soviet propaganda techniques, the firehose of falsehood is a contemporary model for Russian propaganda under Russian President Vladimir Putin. — Firehose of falsehood
I guess he was speaking on behalf of the Soviet Union. Wasn't also Ukraine a large part of it, or is just the Russian federation the only successor state of the Union? Just asking.. — ssu
I personally fear that the war will just continue for far longer even if a conclusion could be made earlier. — ssu
A dictator can interpret the "yes"-men behaviour of giving rosy pictures that then backfires as intentionally done deception. Add here that it really does seem that the Western intelligence did get tips about the invasion will make nearly anyone paranoid about the mole.I think Vlad is right to be nervous. It may be more serious than the FSB having just erred in their assessment.
The US had access to tiptop intel prior to the war about what was planned (even though few believed their predictions of an all out aggression, even in Ukraine). Possibly they were tipped from the FSB (or another source). And two weeks ago the Ukrainian side said they fought back a Wagner force aiming to kill Zelensky, thank to tips coming directly from the FSB. — Olivier5
Putin is a response to Western society's shift to the left, in this instance its influence on European nations. The modern media a vector for emotion can't but help depicting patriarchs as bad guys. When Putin is gone the Left will be all conquering its ultimate victory and goal symbolized with the elimination of the last male on earth. The 'x' chromosomes attempt to eliminate the mutant 'Y' complete. — Gregory A
“We have the president of Russia mentioned the N-word... the nuclear word,” Trump said.“The nuclear word is a very dangerous, dangerous word and it’s being thrown around very cavalierly.” — RT
Ok. Then I stand corrected.No, this was in 1997. So, he was specifically referring to the post Soviet era. — Baden
I understand that one has to be sceptical about Western media, however one shouldn't forget that:I just don't think there's been anything that would result in them not achieving their major objectives as outlined by Boethius. And their significance will be ovestated by our propaganda and understated or denied by theirs. — Baden
Neither side is yet, after a month, is really willing to cease operations and declare that their objectives have been met. Of course both sides will declare victory...but when and at what cost. Thinking that either side will abruptly now collapse isn't realistic.I'm on board with this. There is a solution there imo, i.e. acquiesce to basic Russian demands with maybe a bit of face-saving negotiation around them. — Baden
I think that NATO and US are far more timid than they were in the proxy wars during the Cold War. The Polish MiG-29 debacle clearly shows that. In truth if the fighters would have been painted to Ukrainian colours and flown by Ukrainian pilots to Ukraine wouldn't have resulted in WW3.The biggest danger though is that Zelensky hopes that the longer he draws out the war, the more there is a chance of some kind of accident or spark that gets NATO involved on his side. He may feel it's worth the gamble if he's painted himself into a corner of not accepting any loss of Ukraine sovreignty. — Baden
Capitalism is a wonder to behold. — Banno
So is Cynicism — FreeEmotion
I don't think he's on the same page as most European leaders though who are more in control of their messaging. — Baden
Kalashnikov's daughter, Yelena, unveiled the statue Tuesday at a square off Garden Ring Road, a busy thoroughfare in Russia's capital city. - Tuesday's ceremony included military music and a blessing by a Russian Orthodox priest, The Guardian reports. Russian Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky said the gun had become a "cultural brand of Russia."
Corruption in Russian defense is not limited to the military-industrial complex. It penetrates the political level as well, likely altering the incentive structure for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top security officials. Recent investigations show that top officials in the Russian Defense Ministry own property that significantly outmatches their income, pointing to possible involvement in corrupt deals.
Maintaining a luxurious lifestyle disincentivizes top security officials from giving expert advice that might disappoint the autocrat and cost them access to corruption networks. In the case of Ukraine, this would have meant the risk of reporting to Putin that the country he wanted to invade would put up a fight, that civilians were not looking forward to joining the “Russian world” and would likely greet troops with Molotov cocktails rather than bread and salt, as per local tradition. In this way, the corrupt loyalty of Putin’s top officials might have backfired and contributed to intelligence failures and erroneous risk assessments in Ukraine.
Of course, corruption in the Russian security sector does not predetermine the outcome of the war. Russia still has extensive capabilities and numerous troops to be thrown into combat. But whatever gains the military might make, they will have done so while battling the challenges caused by rampant corruption, from erroneous risk assessment at the top to expired military rations on the ground.
I understand that one has to be sceptical about Western media, however one shouldn't forget that:
a) Ukraine is a huge country, b) It has large armed forces, c) it has shown the will to fight and d) it is supported by a huge alliance and finally e) Russia isn't Soviet Union and hasn't the former's resources. — ssu
All the above facts make it totally possible that the outcome is a standstill with neither side reaching it's rosiest objectives. To assume that Russia will inevitably win and reach it's objectives is a long shot. — ssu
Neither side is yet, after a month, is really willing to cease operations and declare that their objectives have been met. Of course both sides will declare victory...but when and at what cost. Thinking that either side will abruptly now collapse isn't realistic. — ssu
I think that NATO and US are far more timid than they were in the proxy wars during the Cold War. The Polish MiG-29 debacle clearly shows that. In truth if the fighters would have been painted to Ukrainian colours and flown by Ukrainian pilots to Ukraine wouldn't have resulted in WW3. — ssu
And note that Zelensky would be all too happy about a "no-fly-zone" made up with Ukrainian manned Soviet legacy system (that would have been imported from NATO countries). — ssu
I think this war will go on far longer than anybody anticipated and be more bloody and ruinous for both sides than anybody thought. — ssu
At least Ukraine has the nice prospect of refurbishing all that old infrastructure after the "urban renovation" from the Russian Army and Air Force with Western aid. — ssu
For Russia this might be an ordeal like the Russo-Japanese war, which didn't go so well afterwards in the domestic scene for the Czar. — ssu
That is illogical.Sure, Urkainian total capitulation would have been the most rosiest outcome, but there is no evidence Russia's core objectives aren't exactly what it's stated, — boethius
OK, on what do you base this assumption on? That's the area where Russia isn't yet on the defensive an making some progress? Not yet an imminent collapse.will be accomplished with the collapse of the Dombas front (which seems to me in the process of collapsing). — boethius
Well, just like it worked with Finland both in the Winter War and the Continuation War. War of attrition does work.If Ukrainians cannot, regardless of the amount of ATGM's and Manpads poured into Ukraine, actually push the Russians back to their borders ... how does a war of attrition (in a "stalemate") work in Ukraines favour? — boethius
I don't think anybody considers it a win. Not even the future contractors that will build (again) Ukrainian cities after this war.I do not think any Ukrainian views this as a "win" ... and I fear Western generosity may run into all those "realists" after all, when it comes to pouring in tangible love rather than arms. — boethius
Jingoistic imperialism usually fades away after wars that have been failures. Don't forget that Putin views independent Ukraine as an "artificial construct". If those kind of delusional attitudes can be changed, that would be a good start.It's possible ... but, again, if this is the likely "cost" to the Russians, how does that help any Ukrainian? — boethius
So the issue of war being a racket is a far more clear in the Russian case. — ssu
Maybe they aren't on the same paragraph, but they're standing together on the same sanctions page, which are geared toward squashing the Russian economy flat. — frank
That is illogical. — ssu
OK, on what do you base this assumption on? — ssu
Well, just like it worked with Finland both in the Winter War and the Continuation War. War of attrition does work. — ssu
I don't think anybody considers it a win. Not even the future contractors that will build (again) Ukrainian cities after this war. — ssu
Jingoistic imperialism usually fades away after wars that have been failures. Don't forget that Putin views independent Ukraine as an "artificial construct". If those kind of delusional attitudes can be changed, that would be a good start. — ssu
And in a smaller economy, which is one tenth of the size of the US GDP, those Russian arms manufacturers are far more important that in the US for the US economy.Lol, no one who has looked at where the proportion of money - the only thing that counts - — StreetlightX
Russia's defense industry employs 2.5 – 3 million people and accounts for 20% of all manufacturing jobs in Russia.
And in a smaller economy, which is one tenth of the size of the US GDP, those Russian arms manufacturers are far more important that in the US for the US economy. — ssu
I wouldn't say that would be reason to assume they are collapsing.There's a lot fog of war and certainly anything is "possible", but while everything else has being going on in Ukraine, Russia has been bombarding and bombing the Dombas front for a month now.
There's a material and man-power degradation of these lines that is reasonable to assume is pretty severe.
There's also a psychological affect on these front line Ukrainian soldiers.
And then there is the fact that the Dombas line is 17 hour continuous drive from resupply in Poland but only 1 and half hour drive from Russia.
Of the news that comes from this area, it seems Russia has broken through in key places already. — boethius
Yet Finland existed, wasn't occupied. What else is there for Ukraine? Likely there won't be Ukrainian tanks on the Red Square either, so they can't "win" in the traditional sense.Finland accepted defeat to end the continuation war. Finland did not "win" against Russia. — boethius
Something was done, even if what the West did was to produce an extremely corrupt system which was totally unsustainable. One generation of women were educated, at least, now to face unemployment and being confided to the kitchen again. The simple fact was that Afghanistan couldn't in any way uphold such a government and a public sector (including the military) as it had without Western aid. It simply didn't add up. And hence when the Americans were constantly reminding everyone that they were going away ...and with Trump basically capitulated to the Taleban, then it was no wonder what happened.didn't see all that much actual building anything in Afghanistan these last 20 years ... definitely felt more like a destructive process more than an act of love, the advertised. — boethius
If you kill enough of them, they stop fighting. Curtis LeMay
Killing Japanese didn't bother me very much at that time... I suppose if I had lost the war, I would have been tried as a war criminal.
That was the era when we might have destroyed Russia completely and not even skinned our elbows doing it. — Curtis LeMay
And in a smaller economy, which is one tenth of the size of the US GDP, those Russian arms manufacturers are far more important that in the US for the US economy. — ssu
The real racket would be I guess the war in Iraq and Dick Cheney and Halliburton. Halliburton already became the largest construction company in the US during the Vietnam war ...because of the Vietnam war.Yeah, sure, and this has any bearing on the laughable claim that compared to the US, war as a racket is clearer in the Russian case. — StreetlightX
I wouldn't say that would be reason to assume they are collapsing. — ssu
Yet Finland existed, wasn't occupied. What else is there for Ukraine? Likely there won't be Ukrainian tanks on the Red Square either, so they can't "win" in the traditional sense. — ssu
The Kalevala (Finnish: Kalevala, IPA: [ˈkɑleʋɑlɑ]) is a 19th-century work of epic poetry compiled by Elias Lönnrot from Karelian and Finnish oral folklore and mythology — Kalevala, Wikipedia
Finnish Karelia was a historical province of Finland — Karelia, Wikipedia
Something was done, even if what the West did was to produce an extremely corrupt system which was totally unsustainable. — ssu
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