There are bad actors self-identifying as trans to take advantage of vulnerable women. — Jeremy Murray

And the problem here - is it that they take advantage of vulnerable women, or is it that they are trans?

Let's make sure we are addressing the right issue.


A drug is not immoral. It's a drug. What's done with it might be. Do you think that the State ought legislate to override the professional decisions of a child's carers and doctors, as well as parents, with a general piece of legislation that cannot take into account the context in which that decision is made?

Hi Banno,

Not sure you are reading what I write. I have no problem at all with trans people. Those bad actors are making things worse for trans people. If you care about trans people, you should care about bad actors and bad science.

Do you think that the State ought legislate to override the professional decisions of a child's carers and doctors, as well as parents, with a general piece of legislation that cannot take into account the context in which that decision is made? — Banno

So, the gold standard of trans affirmative care works for trans people who are actually trans. As in, children, usually boys, who insist they are the 'wrong gender', have felt that way since they were young, and it has persisted for years.

As opposed to this new cohort, sometimes referred to as suffering from ROGD (another stupid label), who are often teenage females.

So, this much smaller OG trans demographic group COULD benefit from puberty blockers, although the long term health risks here are only starting to emerge in visibility.

But a whole bunch of people who are autistic, or gay, or lesbian, or just different, have been convinced they are trans.

So, yes. The state should prevent puberty blockers for minors, as we prevent drugs that fail to work, haven't been tested, etc. Iatrogenesis. First do no harm.

Your analogy is false. Puberty blockers are not 'neutral drugs'. They are fad science, with limited evidence, that is being applied to large populations would not have been candidates for the approach in the initial development of the methodology.

I can back up any statement I make on this issue if you'd like.

But can you actually make a fact-based argument for puberty blockers?

Respectfully, until you do, it will appear to me that you are simply espousing dogma?

Hey man, I'm looking for a thoughtful conversation on this issue. But you have to actually know the data, the science, the psychology, the history, etc. This is not 'just' a philosophical issue.

So hit me with a fact-based argument!

Not sure you are reading what I write. — Jeremy Murray

Oh, I read your reply. But I haven't read this whole thread, for obvious reasons. You are quite presumptive in your response. That to me does not bode well for your claims of being open to argument.

I didn't use an analogy. Drugs do not do anything until they are used, and it is that use that has moral import.

As you say, "this much smaller OG trans demographic group COULD benefit from puberty blockers", but you support their not having access to these drugs? I disagree.

Now there is a rather large and growing body of evidence concerning puberty blockers. If you think the evidence is not there for examination, then you are wrong. If you think that this philosophy forum is the pace to evaluate that body of evidence, then you are wrong again.

If your move is just the rhetorical one of calling evidence with which you disagree, "dogma", then there is no point in showing you the evidence.

Is there a consensus? No. This is quite a different thing to there being no evidence. And in the mean time we have cases where puberty blockers will help remit pressing and substantive problems.

If your move is just the rhetorical one of calling evidence with which you disagree, "dogma", then there is no point in showing you the evidence. — Banno

Not my move.

You have not presented any evidence. Nor have I. But I can back up any statement I have made in this thread with compelling evidence. Non-partisan evidence. Ask me for some, or present your own. Referring to evidence you are aware of is not presenting evidence.

Whereas every 'talking point' I've expressed is well documented.

Now there is a rather large and growing body of evidence concerning puberty blockers. — Banno

Okay, share it. Or ask for mine, and then we can compare.

I have seen a great deal of evidence to the contrary. I believe I have been following the issue longer than you have, simply because you aren't saying things that show an understanding of the issue beyond a moral stance of 'live and let live'. Obviously, I could be wrong in my assumption, as you were in assuming I dismissed your 'evidence' (not evidence) as a rhetorical technique.

I know the history of how this trans affirmative stance came to be, have worked with trans students as a teacher, had gender questioning kids come to me for counseling, a lapsed progressive that saw the group think take hold, threatening kids I care about. I have skin in the game, and decades of experience. Do you?

The burden of proof is either on you, or for you to request from me.

As it stands, I don't think you have 'proof'.

Prove me wrong. Seriously, I do want a good conversation on this, and, frankly, anything I bother to write about here on TPF.

I didn't use an analogy — Banno

You compared a drug to gender affirmative treatment. I guess you mean just a 'puberty blocker' in which case the correct phrasing would have been something like 'an untested drug with potentially negative side effects'.

You are quite presumptive in your response — Banno

Come on man. You 'presume' I dislike trans people. That is categorically a worse presumption.

Now there is a rather large and growing body of evidence concerning puberty blockers.
— Banno

Okay, share it. — Jeremy Murray

So the logic of your argument is much the same as that used to reject the fact of famine in Bangladesh: "You say thousands are starving, but can't name one".

Pretending that there is no evidence in support of the efficacy of puberty blockers is pretty poor.

I have seen a great deal of evidence to the contrary. — Jeremy Murray

Confirmation bias is an amazing thing.

I believe I have been following the issue longer than you have — Jeremy Murray

Presumptive. And a poor argument. I was professionally involved with Trans children for decades.

You compared a drug to gender affirmative treatment. — Jeremy Murray

No I didn't. You are confabulating.

You 'presume' I dislike trans people. — Jeremy Murray

I'm glad to hear you have "skin in the game", albeit from a distance.

I'm not seeing anything interesting accruing from this discussion.

Your analogy is false. Puberty blockers are not 'neutral drugs'. They are fad science, with limited evidence, that is being applied to large populations would not have been candidates for the approach in the initial development of the methodology. — Jeremy Murray

Isn't there a danger there that someone who is serious about gender reassignment down the road could benefit from puberty blockers at adolescence and we're taking away that option?

Isn't there a danger there that someone who is serious about gender reassignment down the road could benefit from puberty blockers at adolescence and we're taking away that option? — RogueAI

They give them in early puberty and the consequences are permanent infertility and sexual dysfunction. That's not a decision an adolescent, still working out who they are, should be making.

...the consequences are permanent infertility and sexual dysfunction. — frank

That's a bit like saying that giving blood causes Myocardial infarction. It happens, but not often.

Again, this forum is not the place to evaluate the evidence, and we are not the people to do the evaluation. Instant expert syndrome is at play here.

What we can conclude is that that there are issues, and urge caution. In both directions.

..the consequences are permanent infertility and sexual dysfunction.
— frank

That's a bit like saying that giving blood causes Myocardial infarction. It happens, but not often. — Banno

No, every male who takes puberty blockers will be permanently infertile and will never have an orgasm.

What we can conclude is that that there are issues, and urge caution. In both directions. — Banno

Puberty blockers will eventually be illegal everywhere.

every male who takes puberty blockers will be permanently infertile and will never have an orgasm. — frank

That's misinformation. Not wrong, but not quite right, either.

Puberty blockers will eventually be illegal everywhere. — frank

Or improved so as to avoid these complications.

But again, Instant expert syndrome is at play here.

I'm not seeing anything interesting accruing from this discussion. — Banno

That would be due to the lack of evidence. So here is some!

https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/yales-integrity-project-is-spreading

Do you know Jesse Singal's work? Perhaps some of the most important journalism on the subject happening now. He has paid a price for fearless reporting on this.

What is your opinion on the Cass report? In the above article, Singal outlines the results and the pro-affirmation communities dishonest responses to it.

If you do not know the Cass report, I think you are missing out on the most vital publication on the issue to date.

Here is more evidence. This one shows that this is not an exceedingly rare choice.

https://unherd.com/newsroom/over-5000-us-children-have-undergone-transgender-surgeries/

This is an opinion piece from a lesbian writer on gender non-conformity.

https://www.evakurilova.com/p/the-trans-movement-does-not-get-to?utm_source=multiple-personal-recommendations-email&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true

Here is a piece on detransitioners, who often report feeling pressured, or rushed into, a decision to pursue medical interventions.

https://nationalpost.com/news/young-detransitioners-abandoned?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Stokes%20longread%20eblast%20-%20SUBS&utm_term=NP_PAID_Current

Here is journalist Benjamin Ryan, a gay man, another critical observer on the subject. He too has been targeted by virulent attacks for pursuing honesty.

https://benryan.substack.com/p/how-common-is-detransitioning

It took me ten minutes to come up with this evidence, and I can go on.

Pretending that there is no evidence in support of the efficacy of puberty blockers is pretty poor. — Banno

There isn't any for the demographic group I've described repeatedly, this new cohort of people identifying as trans, as opposed to the much smaller cohort for whom puberty blockers could be beneficial, a point I have made repeatedly to you.

Questions for you:

-is there a difference between people who self-identify as trans today, and the people who did so prior to that convergence of smart phones and social media in the early 2010s?

-is there any proof that puberty blockers are safe, long term?

-what do you make of detransitioners, a growing cohort, one that we will see much more of in the years to come?

-how much time should be spent on trans inclusion in public schools? My premise is that we spend a wildly disproportionate amount of time on the issue, which tends to worsen, rather than improve, outcomes for trans people. (and, again, I can back this up if you want to see evidence).

If you have a more specific question, one that requires effort beyond posting links, I could research an answer.

But you have yet to provide any evidence at all. You just keep referring to the 'fact' that evidence exists.

The only way to prove me wrong is to prove me wrong?

Isn't there a danger there that someone who is serious about gender reassignment down the road could benefit from puberty blockers at adolescence and we're taking away that option? — RogueAI

Yes! That's what is so frustrating about this radical affirmative stance. The people who actually need the radical interventions have been subsumed into a group that is most likely NOT TRANS.

I mean, the value of the approach is what made it the gold standard in the first place. But it only works for people who used to be viewed as 'gender dysphoric'. Early onset (pre-adolescence at a minimum), persistent expressions of dysphoria, most often biologically male.

Plus, psychology is a 'hard' social science, not an actual science (or, at least, an actual science beyond its infancy). Correlation not causation. The replication crisis. Frankly, as a lay social scientist, I no longer trust social scientists.

They give them in early puberty and the consequences are permanent infertility and sexual dysfunction. — frank

The consequences are still not determined, but there is a substantial risk of both. Overstating the risks is not helpful.

I would argue that a few highly dysphoric, well-informed, well-vetted individuals should be making this sort of decision.

But a much, much smaller number than currently.

That's the thing. We already have the research to determine who is 'most trans'. There are two populations being discussed here. Legitimately trans people, and a bunch of people who have trusted clueless adults with well-meaning hearts and horrible historical legacies.

this forum is not the place to evaluate the evidence, and we are not the people to do the evaluation. Instant expert syndrome is at play here. — Banno

What good is philosophy if it does not help evaluate evidence? You might not be the person to do the evaluation, but a default to morally relativistic technocrats is moral failure in my eyes.

If you just want to spew philosophy, I know a bunch of Stalinists arguing with a bunch of Leninists down the street at the cafe.

Banno, I like you. You were one of the first people to welcome me to the forum. I engaged with you in that spirit.

If you care about trans people, you should want to engage with the best arguments that oppose your beliefs, no? I think I have presented some strong points. Do you have any?

You have worked with this population for decades, I would like to hear from that perspective, at least!

Or improved so as to avoid these complications. — Banno

In the clinics in the US and the UK, kids 13.5 years old would receive 2 therapy sessions, and then be approved for puberty blockers, gender affirming hormones, and surgery. By the time they were through, all the trans women they had produced were permanently infertile and sexually dysfunctional. This info is coming from whistle blowers who worked in the clinics. It was a disaster.

What good is philosophy if it does not help evaluate evidence? — Jeremy Murray

Would you have a philosopher evaluate your cancer biopsy?

It took me ten minutes to come up with this evidence, and I can go on. — Jeremy Murray

Why so long? Slow internet connection? If you would be an instant expert you might need to upgrade your network.

I can do it too.

A good argument for better health care. Not for rejecting gender affirmation outright.

A good argument for better health care. Not for rejecting gender affirmation outright. — Banno

A person will have to be an adult to transition. I'm not arguing for that. It's a fact. That's where we're headed.

It's a fact. That's where we're headed. — frank

And you know this... from examining a crystal ball?

This thread is shite.

And you know this... from examining a crystal ball? — Banno

Wait and see.

And if it turn out to be so, your were right - but if it turns out to be wrong, then you will point to some machinations on the part of those of ill will, or do-gooders, to explain why.

You win either way. Well done.

They give them in early puberty and the consequences are permanent infertility and sexual dysfunction. That's not a decision an adolescent, still working out who they are, should be making. — frank

But it is a decision their parents can make. Can we look at puberty blockers like certain drugs that have potential terrible side effects? Like chemotherapy? If I'm the parent of a trans adolescent who has been trans much of her life and is now suicidal over it, and the only thing keeping her going is the prospect of fully transitioning later on...aren't puberty blockers an option I should consider? You would take that away from me?

I'm not trying to win. To some extent, what happened was a failure of philosophers. They abandoned common sense.

Why so long? Slow internet connection? If you would be an instant expert you might need to upgrade your network.

I can do it too. — Banno

yeah, you quoted a google search. I quoted evidence I have read. Weak, man.

You say you care about trans people. So, show some evidence that that means more to you than having the 'right' position.

"Instant expert" is a pretty shitty ad hominem. Especially from the rhetoric police.

All you have to do is reply to ONE point of mine. But you can't / won't / somehow feel evidence is beneath you.

Share this thread with all the trans people you care about and ask them how they feel about the quality of your arguments. Perhaps you are uncomfortable with disagreement?

The 'shite' nature of this thread is coming from you.

common sense — frank

...is a prevaricating term.

But it is a decision their parents can make. Can we look at puberty blockers like certain drugs that have potential terrible side effects? Like chemotherapy? If I'm the parent of a trans adolescent who has been trans much of her life and is now suicidal over it, and the only thing keeping her going is the prospect of fully transitioning later on...aren't puberty blockers an option I should consider? You would take that away from me? — RogueAI

Absolutely. If she's suicidal, she needs to be in therapy. There is growing evidence that transitioning is not a solution to any mental health issues.

is a prevaricating term. — Banno

Yea, I'm such a prevaricator.

"Based on this review, there is an extremely low prevalence of regret in transgender patients after GAS."
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8099405/

Doesn't that suggest that transititioning IS a possible solution?

You came here to prove your point, not to discuss the topic. That's fine, if tedious.

What about prudence and restraint? Nuance? Context? Perhaps the wisest course is epistemic modesty: recognising complexity, acknowledging uncertainty, and striving for a response that does justice to both care and caution.

And in the mean time allowing some flexibility in order to accomodate the diversity of individual difficulties folk face.

Not blanket responses.

You came here to prove your point, not to discuss the topic. That's fine, if tedious. — Banno

That's how a lot of philosophy is done. People argue their points and update their beliefs afterwards. If I'm looking to have my mind changed, I'm going to try and prove whatever point I have and see if it withstands the other person's attacks.

Based on this review, there is an extremely low prevalence of regret in transgender patients after GAS." — RogueAI

This research looks at regret related to transition surgery for all ages.

Do you have research that focuses exclusively on the post transition suicide rate for individuals who transitioned during adolescence?

That's how a lot of philosophy is done. — RogueAI

Calling this thread "philosophy" is a stretch. More like mud wrestling.

And pretending that there is no evidence in support of the efficacy of puberty blockers is an act of bad faith.

Do you have research that focuses exclusively on the post transition suicide rate for individuals who transitioned during adolescence? — frank

No. What do you have?

You came here to prove your point, not to discuss the topic. That's fine, if tedious. — Banno

And yet you have no way to know if this assertion of yours is true. You can't know why I came here.

More evidence from me.

https://unsafescience.substack.com/p/the-last-four-years-were-the-most

To make it clear that this is not me googling a search and pretending I'm a big boy now, here's a quote from my link that gets at why I find your arguments not just 'tedious', but immoral.

The Tyranny of the Minority and the Spiral of Silence

Mill, it must be noted, is describing here a “tyranny of the majority,” whereas the “woke” social tyranny we have lately lived through and of which we are perhaps now breaking free may better be seen as a “tyranny of the minority.”

The economist Glenn Loury—writing in the Journal of Free Black Thought, the periodical of an organization some friends and I founded in 2020 to fight burgeoning woke racism and the tacit suppression in our public discourse of black viewpoint diversity—describes how a minority can exert tyrannical power over a majority:

German political scientist Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann coined a term that describes this phenomenon: the “Spiral of Silence.” In a spiral of silence, when holding a certain view entails a stigma, then, for fear of being seen as having that view, most people stay silent. Thus, the masses believe they are alone or in a small minority of people with the stigmatized view, when in fact they are indeed in the majority, one of the masses.

You, sir, are contributing to the "Spiral of Silence".

And, again, sorry to be tedious, but you could just refute me with actual evidence.

Your refusal to produce any makes my contention that you have none more compelling.

Based on this review, there is an extremely low prevalence of regret in transgender patients after GAS." — RogueAI

How could there possibly be evidence, when there are no studies trying to follow up on this issue? When proponents of affirmative care do not track their patients? (As if doctors track their patients anyways? As if ideologues would consider the data?)

It is likely impossible to even have such evidence of a social trend that only emerged a decade ago. That's not how social science works. But I can hit you with evidence on my point if you'd like?

And yes, I anticipate Banno's dumb argument - there have always been trans people.

What there has not always been is an explosion of non-traditional trans-identifying girls, immediately after the smart phone became a ubiquitous portal to anxiety.

There are a LOT of detransitioners, and this is group is only going to grow, exponentially. There will be lawsuits. People will lose jobs. The whole trans-affirmative industry is a house of cards, and I feel genuinely sorry for the true believers in the bunch - they are the ones who have landed on the wrong side of history.

All the evidence on trans suicide suggests that their are complicating factors, and that trans identity alone is not in any way causal. It will take me more time to find this evidence, since Google does not allow for this search.

But if you guys want some evidence against the idea that 'you can have a living son or a dead daughter', I can definitely find it with some time.