I'm very interested in what the hiking is like where you are. Here we are only allowed to walk in the vicinity of our house. I am surrounded by agricultural farmland. There is a nice nature reserve about 2 miles away. But I have plantar fasciitis at the moment so can't walk more than a couple of miles. It's such a shame, We would be going for long walks otherwise.

Hang on in there.
(not literally).


I'm not an alcoholic, I'm actually going the other way. So I might brew all that wine and then not drink much of it.

I heard the same and that it actually lingers after recovery. I'd sell your whiskey collection before it's too late.

Yes, but my local auction house is closed now. I do have a similar thought about antiques, they might become devalued for a generation, or permanently.

I brew my own wine and have planted about 30 vines recently, so will be self sufficient soon.

I have a similar experience, I live in a quiet place in the countryside. I work mainly from home and have plenty to do as it is a small holding. There are no reports of anyone in my local town having the virus, so life is normal, apart from most shops are shut and there are social distancing measures at the supermarket.The shelves are nearly empty though, so we have to be a bit creative at meal times. I will be growing most of my own vegetables over the next few months.

Our social calendar has been cancelled, but it's hardly noticeable, as there is still communication. My wife works for the government, so she will have full pay for the duration. I can still work, but don't need to.

My only hardship is not being able to buy flour, so will try grinding some of my chicken's grain in a coffee grinder. Also we cannot go travelling in our camper van for now.

People in the UK are talking about a loss of smell and taste as a symptom. Some people have tested positive with only this symptom. It makes sense, as this can be a symptom of the common cold.

trivial, but it really is frustrating to just want to be home, like just be at home, and then have to either make small talk, or awkwardly remain silent every single time you have to go to the bathroom or make a sandwich

I know that feeling, maybe the solution is to reach some degree of friendship with her. Through laughter, or mutual appreciation of something. I know that this might not be possible if there is some kind of personality dissonance.

"One has to undress from all the coverings, clothes, curtains, masks, and meaningless chattering that still stick to one’s being when one is severed from others."

Sounds like a meditative state.

Meanwhile Johnson returns to cabinet following his isolation.

New for this response, I expect.

Manufacturers are talking about a new kind of breathing device in the UK, called CPAP. Mercedes formula one team, are beginning manufacture. It provides pressurised oxygen, keeping the lungs inflated and aiding breathing. Also it does not need the patients to be sedated. It can be manufactured quickly and in volume.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52087002

Trump brags about his ratings, claiming stable genius in saving the American people from the Chinese virus. And snubs prince Harry, no special trade deal now.

Good day at the office.

A spike in Tokyo now, perhaps the lack of testing failed to pick this up.

Yes, but when and how are such countries going to assist poorer ones?

I don't think any government had any choice in the action they took, each developed country has gone the same way, except those where religion trumps all other considerations. There is some variation in the action, but the result is the same.

Regarding the tentative relaxation of the measures. I can't see any timely progress, as each time there will be another spike. Although there is great uncertainty about how this will pan out. Perhaps Italy will give us some hope soon.

India is very worrying, there are simply to many people in a mainly poor unresourced country.

My uni halls had single and shared rooms. I had a single thankfully.

I lived in a caravan next to a field of pigs, rather than pay rent and spent the money in the pub.

I agree with your concerns here, especially with the recent trends towards protectionism. I think more support for undeveloped countries will be called for once large numbers start dying in those countries. But, due to the rapid infection rate, it will be to little to late. Most developed countries are doing to little to late for their own populations already. We should look to how China, South Korea, Singapore etc for how to go about it.

I don't think we will be over the peak anytime soon, in the UK the experts announced yesterday that the lockdown is expected to last for at least 6 months, with only tentative attempts at relaxation of measures towards the end of this period. Personally, I expect it to be for a few more months than that before significant restrictions can be lifted.

While in these kind of lockdowns, developed countries won't be able to offer effective support to other countries experiencing difficulties. China may come to the rescue, but I doubt it, or that they may only be able to help a few countries.

I worry about Gaza, it's not going to be pretty, and who would help, would the Israelis end the blockade to help, I doubt it.

Sharing information is what will save us not destroy us. They’ll be conspiracy theorists as usual but the positives far outweigh the negatives imo.

We’re better off talking to each other. I cannot think of any situation where discussion and information sharing doesn’t have more benefits than deficits.

If there is a real chance of civil unreast, the authorities will control information. Also with panic, once you have let to cat out of the bag, you can't put it back in again easily. The public is still calm and sleepy, while worried and a bit alarmed, it won't take much to push them over the edge. In London the situation is fraught, a disgruntled population becomes more difficult to nudge into effective social distancing measures. Meaning you need the army on the streets. They will want to avoid this.

It might be time to consider the government control of information. This does usually happen during wartime conditions. For example, there is none, or very little mention of the conditions in Iran in the mainstream media, or many other less developed countries. Perhaps media becomes ineffective, or suppressed in such places. Our intelligence services might be aware of more severe outbreaks, but it is being kept secret from our populations, so as to prevent panic.

Also it has occurred to me how fragile the state of the food chain is in my country (UK), even now most supermarkets have many empty shelves and they are struggling to fill them. It is this bad with only maybe 50,000 infections (again, we don't know how many). What about when we get over a million and the key workers involved in this supply chain start to fall away (not to mention a staffing crisis in healthcare). Such problems could emerge in the media in a sensational way causing mass panic. By this point, it would have to become an army operation with rationed food supplies only available from specified depots.

There have been reports today of unreast and civil disobedience in Italy, as a result of the population being confined to their homes.

Hopefully, we are near the peak and once developed countries have got the spread under control in a manageable way. They will be able to develop resources and begin to donate them to the less developed countries and help them to get it under control, so as to reduce the adverse effects of an exponential growth curve in their countries. But this I fear is the optimistic view, from where I'm standing, we are not near the peak yet as there are only a few thousand infections in each country, out of millions. I think it is much harder to prevent spread than has been comprehended, without a total control of the population as we see in Wuhan.

The other reality is that less developed countries will become endemic and then, as you say, keep infecting travellers. Unless an effective vaccine is developed.

After the economic destruction do you think this event will stop people looking for quick, easy money or help oil the chainsaws and invite the miners in.

The economic plight from this could wreck and ruin far more than people seem to appreciate.

My remark was flippant, but there is a grain of seriousness in there, Bolsanaro (who presumably survived his infection) is fully intending to destroy the forests as it is, so I can't see it getting much worse.
In reality we have no idea, were this will end, or what will rise from the wreckage. A much smaller Global economy will reduce the rape of the planet a bit, as its full steam ahead at the moment.

China will end up far more dominant, I expect, so it's going to be mobile phone surveillance for all of us.

Wtf? I wake up to #Brazilcannotstop. Criminal.

Good thing, they were about to flatten the Brazilian rainforest and do maximum exploitation.

But I will suspect it will get worse before it gets better in the US. The populace is not the healthiest of communities and the underlying conditions are the biggest killer.

Quite, and the obesity and borderline diabetic epidemic is a liability.

So what do people think about Trump's new idea:

President Trump said Thursday that he planned to label different areas of the country as at a “high risk, medium risk or low risk” to the spread of the coronavirus, as part of new federal guidelines to help states decide whether to relax or enhance their quarantine and social distancing measures.
What regions is talking about? States? Lower level cities, communities and counties?

It's already to late.

A step in the right direction, in my opinion. I think a sort of juggling act between lockdown and tentatively opening the economy is the reasonable approach.

Do you watch unpartisan media at all? There are hotspots developing in all the large cities across the US, in a week they will all be overwhelmed like New York is today. This juggling you mention is the hope for a few months down the line when the first big wave has passed.

The argument is that we can take precautions—social distancing, hygiene, testing and protecting vulnerable populations—without having to end the livelihoods and enterprises of people throughout the globe. We certainly don’t need to do it based on the speculations and models of people who overestimate their ability to tell the future.

Yes, you pay them the equivalent of a universal income and put the economy into stasis. Then reboot it later.

The important thing is that you maintain social distancing, otherwise you are accepting that pile of bodies in the corner.

I don't dispute your reasoning, my take is different. Firstly I don't see the global recession as so destructive. Rather economies have been put on hold and should bounce back when the restrictions are lifted. The less developed countries are already poor, for them this will be a public health disaster, although I expect there will be some famine, where the agriculture was already in trouble due to climate change. The poor healthcare they have was already not being supported much by wealthier countries.

Secondly I don't think that by relaxing the social distancing measures now imposed by most countries, the depth of the recession would be reduced. We don't know yet how far the health crisis will go and as it is an exponential contagion, halting that growth will mitigate the worst effects of the rapid increase in infection. This is the reason why these countries have adopted these measures. Presumably their governments have been advised by specialists as to how bad it could be without action.

The only country we have as an example which has not imposed social isolation is Iran, but we don't have accurate figures coming out of Iran. Perhaps some reports will emerge soon as to how it has affected their economy.

As for the over/under reacting question. I think it’s extremely important to pay attention to the global implications of prolonged lockdown - especially for less developed countries who simply don’t have the economic fluidity to sustain the kind of blows nations like France, UK, Germany, South Korea and China can

I agree, the less developed countries are in for a rough ride for a few years. They are helpless and the West will not be in a position to help. Perhaps China will.

But in reality nothing anyone does is going to prevent this. Whether wealthy countries self isolate or not, it will not make any difference in the poorer countries, they are doomed regardless.

I don't see a problem with wealthy countries printing money, because this crisis will not result in uncontrollable inflation due to the way in which the economy is in life support. I can't comment on what will happen afterwards, hopefully people will realise that money is not the The be all and end all. The fact that real things and lives have been given a monetary value may have to change.

I am aware of your position and do agree in principle with some of what you say, but I don't want to get into a discussion about social planning around reproduction, aims, or demographics here.

It looks as though, as I said before, that nature is going to reduce the size of the population for us now. Also that this pandemic will shine a light on the corrupt practices hidden behind the cool aid.

Sky News has just reported that the epicentre in New York has overwhelmed the healthcare system and infections are increasing 5,000 per day. Meanwhile Trump's brain is self isolating.

There are reports of many hundreds requiring hospital treatment in London rising each day this week. The lockdown in London is much better now, but was introduced to late. It's only been effectively in place for 4 days.

actually agree with you, and them. But what this brings up is the whole point of the economic system. The "neoliberal" philosophy would say that profits, even for the very wealthy raises all boats (if we are assuming non-corrupt actors). Thus profits are the key to success for everyone, even (apparently?) in the midst of a pandemic.

This does work to a degree, but the greed of those who dwell near the top of the pyramid poisons the whole system eventually. This results in exploitative practices and systems and social norms designed to hold the people at the bottom (below that privelidged top layer) down and to remain subservient. This is followed by the development of decadence in the privelidged resulting in absurdities and arrogance from fools drunk on power and privelidge.

Which is just another way of saying they have no idea.

Iran has no idea.

So the world is going to stand around and let this happen to Italy?

Wow.

It's worse in Spain and a lot worse in Iran. I was listening to an epidemiologist earlier who had been estimating the extent of the epidemic in Iran. He concluded that it was actually a couple of magnitudes higher than they are letting on. Somewhere between 700,000 and 7 million cases. Apparently they have been observed digging massive trenches around the city at the epicentre, by satellite.

Agreed

Based on the numbers, the UK is about one week behind Germany and France. They seem to be taking the same measures those countries took a week ago.

Yes, although it is not enforced and a bit vague. I am pointing to London as a hotspot, it is still spreading freely, on the Underground, in shops, petrol stations etc.

I think the figure of 600,000 is an underestimate, because we don't yet know what the mortality rate would be were the virus to become concentrated in communities and the social effects that would have.

There have been reports that healthy doctors in China and Italy have died due to receiving a high dose on infection. Presumably the virus incubates more quickly in this case overwhelming the immune system before it has a chance to develop anti bodies. Where the virus becomes concentrated in a community there will be more cases of high dose infection, higher mortality and the resultant panic, in which people overwhelmed with fear will flee leaving the whoever is left to die. This social reaction has already happened in Spain in a number of care homes. Where dead people (presumably not dead when they left) were found abandoned by their care workers.

I'm not sure how your response relates to anything I've said. I'm not taking a position on whether some countries are or aren't over reacting. I'm just watching how this thing unfolds. I do however think that the virus will cause more havoc than many are considering. We haven't thus far observed a society where it has become endemic yet, that might not be a very nice place to hang out. And places where it does become endemic will have to be isolated from the rest of the global community. Unless an effective vaccine is produced.

The predicted spike in London is showing now with a rapid increase in confirmed cases and hospital admissions. And yet, the underground (metro) had packed commuter trains this morning. Packed with key workers and critical healthcare workers, presumably spreading it amongst themselves. The hospitals will be overwhelmed within a week.

Brilliant, the best cartoon I've seen in a while.

Ok, how about gun violence? The reaction to gun violence vs coronavirus is down to mythology. I'll stand by that.

I think that the conversation moved on from here overnight. I can't think of another social scourge which has an equivalence to the pandemic. Simply because the pandemic is an exponential threat, so a stitch in time saves nine.