, so you accuse others of sharing your own sentiment? Odd. :D Oh well.

There is no tiptoeing, there's a very clear objective to weaken Europe [...] — boethius

You changed the subject.

incidentally good news for the Kremlin — Sep 19, 2023

Russia says it sees growing friction between Ukraine and Poland, West
^{— Peter Graff · Reuters · Sep 22, 2023}

We see that there are frictions between Warsaw and Kyiv. We predict that these frictions will increase. As for Poland's weapons, being neighbours with Poland is not the most comfortable for our Belarusian comrades. The country is quite aggressive, does not shun subversive activity and interferes in internal affairs. But we and our Belarusian friends and allies are on alert against the background of potential threats that may come from Poland. — Pesky

I hadn't really expected the Kremlin to target Poland this way, whatever the tactic they're running with. Then again, insidious conspiracy theories come out of those people ← the top official at that.

if Ukrainian former lands is so important, why not send NATO boots on the ground to defend it? — boethius

That's not within NATO's mandate, is it? Others may not have such a charter, though. But, hey, maybe you're right, end the tiptoeing.

can't escalate are you crazy, Russia has nukes — boethius

... seems to often enough be put forth by those saying that Ukraine should capitulate.

He'd be wrong. It was an offensive. Not a counteroffensive, since there was no Russian offensive to counter; that had already ceased months prior. — Tzeentch

Uhm... I guess you don't call the invasion an offensive? It's the offense, what the Ukrainians are working to counter. :D In Putin's words, too.

It's just a buzzword now. It sounds flashy, and flashy sounding language might goad people into supporting senseless waste of human lives. — Tzeentch

Uhm... "counteroffensive" is a flashy-sounding buzzword...? :brow: Weird.

This is mumbo jumbo to me. — Tzeentch

Really? It's really quite easy to understand. :shrug:

Where do you get this stuff?

, there's likely always a bit of vote fraud. No material evidence of what the conspiracy theorists claimed, though.

These candidates lost badly, but now are claiming fraud
^{— Stephen Fowler · NPR · Jul 2, 2022}

My vote to just remain a no isn't based on any evidence. It's not based on any facts, it's only based on my gut feeling and my own intuition, and that's all I need. — Couy Griffin

I've often heard people claim that Trump won the 2020 election or that the election was rigged against him, but I never hear any of the details that convince people why they believe these things. — GRWelsh

They went by, or still go by, the likes of (ordered by timestamp) ...

Despite election results showing Biden win, Pompeo said he expects 'transition to a second Trump administration' (Deirdre Shesgreen · USA TODAY · Nov 10, 2020) — expectations

Press Conference: Election Whistleblowers Come Forward (Amistad Project via PRNewswire · Dec 1, 2020)

Peter Navarro releases 36-page report alleging election fraud 'more than sufficient' to swing victory to Trump (Andrew Mark Miller · Washington Examiner · Dec 17, 2020)

What’s the real evidence for 2020 Election Fraud? (John Berea · winteryknight.com · Jan 18, 2021)

Tucker Carlson Addresses 2020 Election Issues In Fulton County, Georgia (DEEP STATE [2] · Jul 14, 2021 · 6m:59s)

'I Personally Witnessed It': Witness Describes Seeing Voter Fraud To Alex Padilla (Forbes · Jun 9, 2023 · 4m:59s)

Georgia poll workers accused in Trump-backed conspiracy theories cleared of election fraud allegations (Lucien Bruggeman · ABC · Jun 20, 2023) — exonerated

Fish Tank Paradox; a simple explanation of how our elections are rigged using arithmetic. (Edward Solomon · Aug 14, 2023 · 1h:37m:56s)

Some of this stuff is lengthy, tedious, confusing, ambiguous, ... Venture down Alice's proverbial rabbit hole at your own risk.

There has been responses to much of this of course ^{(e.g. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10)}, but conspiracy theorists dismiss fact-checkers and whatever else, yet express certainty that the Clown won.

EDIT: my underworld informants slipped me another few sources :)

New "hybrid" voting system can change paper ballot after it's been cast (Salon · Mar 28, 2019)
An Election Security Disaster - Hybrid Voting Machines (Part 1: Dominion vs. The Experts) (Shugah Works · Apr 27, 2019 · 5m:21s)
An Election Security Disaster - Hybrid Voting Machines (Part 2: What's Behind This Deal?) (Shugah Works · Jun 2, 2019 · 6m:55s)
Exclusive: Philadelphia's new voting machines under scrutiny in Tuesday's elections (Reuters · Jun 1, 2020)
Georgia Havoc Raises New Doubts on Pricey Voting Machines (New York Times · Jun 11, 2020)
Laptop, USB drives stolen from Philly election-staging site (AP · Oct 1, 2020)

The sorts of things they went by or still go by

Whatever happened to that offensive, though? — Tzeentch

Tripping minefields?

↪ssu Define what 'Ukraine winning' looks like, and then explain how wasting thousands of lives on ill-advised offensives brings us closer to that end state. — Tzeentch

With a bit of luck, we're not talking an "end state", more like regress or progress, authoritarianism or democracy, etc. Ukraine and the UN have repeatedly said "No" to Putin's regressive Russia, to the bulging-by-land-grab of Putin's authoritarian Russia, etc. Can't have missed it.

Ukraine, Russia and the tense UN encounter that almost happened — but didn’t (Jennifer Peltz · AP · Sep 20, 2023)

You stop the war, and President Zelenskyy will not take the floor. — Edi Rama

(As an aside, Putin admits to Ukraine conducting a COUNTERoffensive, i.e. a response to the invasion by the Kremlin. Different from prior rhetoric, aside from the excuse.)

I'm vaguely reminded of ...

"If Russia stops fighting, the war ends. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends." (C-SPAN · Sep 22, 2022 · 11m:21s)
Planned walkouts from Russia’s speech and the elephant in the room: Inside the UN General Assembly (Emin Pasha · The Independent · Sep 22, 2022)

Nothing new though. Also, North Korea is worrisome, but maybe there's a bit of (unofficial) tension with the Kremlin?

:chin:

New York attorney general sends cease-and-desist letter to group accused of voter intimidation
^{— Anthony Izaguirre · AP · Sep 21, 2023}

non sequiturs [...] follow [...] therefore — Bob Ross

... are examples of deduction.

By “elaborate”, it seems (from your OP) that you are referring to laymen’s beliefs about God. — Bob Ross

Not exactly, no. We're talking what the Pope, priests, gurus, imams, pujas, etc promote (be it simple complex sophisticated renditions), the Avestan Ahura Mazda, the Vedic Shiva, the Biblical Yahweh, the Quranic Allah, etc, the currently prevalent, elaborate religious faiths, often mutually incompatible (as mentioned), what people out there actually believe and sometimes practise:

(typically involving lengthy stories, religious texts, divine intervention/participation, personal/divine revelations, personal deities, rituals, commands/rules, fate designations) — jorndoe

^{(link, link, link, IEP, SEP)} — jorndoe

By “idealized”, it seems to me that you are referring to formal theological arguments for God, is that correct? — Bob Ross

Maybe. I'd call them definitions, e.g. G is defined as a supposed 1^st cause (like Aquinas did), or "super-designer", or ... As to the mentioned gap, the kalam/cosmological argument, for example, does not derive the Biblical Yahweh, cannot particularly differentiate those "historicized" deities or "the unknown" for that matter (incidentally admitted by one of the foremost promoters of that argument). I suppose that's a characteristic of the "idealized" category, though "definitions" is a better word. (How would one go about practising religious faith in a supposed 1^st cause or "super-designer" anyway? Those apologetics don't derive the 10 commandments or Sun-prayer or much of anything.)

predicated off of idealism. — Bob Ross

There's been realism versus idealism threads before. Maybe it's time for another. Hit it, if you have something good, it's one of those things the forum is about. Roughly 4/5 contemporary philosophers go with realism. ^{2009, 2020} A topic in its own right, all the way back to Plato ... (Descartes) ... Berkeley ...

they are personifying God, which obviously makes no sense. — Bob Ross

I guess your take is more or less at odds with the entire elaborate category above? If my bare guess holds up, you'd have something in common with a few atheists:

I'm guessing atheism primarily is concerned with the former (elaborate), and agnosticism more found in the context of the latter (idealized) — both of which could be held by one person, and thus need clarification. — jorndoe

Sort of. Bad arguments for God, or simply ill-thought out metaphysical explanations of the world [...] — Bob Ross

Those mentioned above aren't arguments, just poor explanations. Some reasons were listed.

Hurricane Sally roamed about in Sep 2020.

3 years after Hurricane Sally, Pensacola is still struggling to rebuild
^{— Julia Jacobo, David Miller · ABC · Sep 18, 2023}

Now, even run-of-the-mill rainstorms are causing regular flooding in the city.

Residents are striving to stay in their water-damaged homes, while community planners are tasked with fortifying the city from future flooding -- not just from powerful hurricanes, but from everyday rainstorms that are now causing more nuisance flooding than in years past.

But the damage from Hurricane Sally, and the flooding that continues with the regular rainstorms in the years that have followed, threaten to throw her out of the historic home where she has lived since 2016.

More frequent hurricanes wreaking havoc is one thing, increasing flooding + water levels another.
I guess it depends on tides, the Moon, ocean currents, what-have-you — with more liquid water in circulation, some areas will see more flooding.

Some may find this a worthwhile read ...

Inside the Next Republican Revolution
^{— Michael Hirsh · POLITICO · Sep 19, 2023}

This land is your land, this federal government is your federal government. It’s not just the sole province of people in the metro D.C. area. Within 350 million Americans we can find genuine, intelligent, straightforward politicians to move things forward. — corrected Paul Dans quote

⁽²⁾ This just simply doesn’t entail that God doesn’t exist: it entails, if granted as true, that ‘world religions’ are false. Seems like a non sequitur to me. — Bob Ross

⁽⁵⁾ Again, this doesn’t entail God doesn’t exist. If someone were to argue that God exists because they were taught that traditionally by their family, then that is a bad argument for God’s existence. — Bob Ross

I didn't read those as deductive, but as evidence in support of the case. Though, I could of course have misread Christina.

That being said, these observations (evidence) can draw attention to the point in the opening post regarding elaborate versus idealized. God/god and religious faith can mean any number of things ^{(link, link, link, IEP, SEP)}, with varying responses. Regarding the elaborate, prevalent category:

It becomes difficult to see the point of a proof of God's existence when it is construed as a proof of an individual's existence. Does one use arguments to become acquainted with an individual? Either that individual exists or it doesn't, and experience alone can tell us which. The project of a proof of God's existence thus ironically comes to appear meaningless to contemporary philosophers of religion. — Theism and Atheism: Opposing Arguments In Philosophy (2019), Joseph Koterski, Graham Oppy

⁽¹⁾ I find that these terms are regularly deployed in vague and superficial manners, where either can be used to consistently and coherently explain reality: it just depends on how loose or precise the definitions are of them. — Bob Ross

I find "supernatural magic" and "G did it" to be non-explanations ^{(previously ... Nov 9, 2022 ... Jun 4, 2022)}. They could (literally) be raised to explain anything, and therefore explain nothing. When did such an explanation ever do away with ignorance/errors? Not themselves explicable, cannot readily be exemplified (verified), do not derive anything differentiable in particular, ... Replacing with "don't know" does not incur informative loss; not replacing is a termination along such lines of inquiry, a proliferation of ignorance.

Difficulties for Ukraine, division, incidentally good news for the Kremlin:

'Just can't sell': Ukraine harvests sunflowers as war blocks ports
^{— France 24 / AFP · Sep 18, 2023}
Ukraine says it will sue Poland, Hungary and Slovakia over food import bans
^{— Tom Balmforth, Pavel Polityuk, Anna Wlodarczuk-Semczuk, Anna Pruchnicka, Timothy Heritage · Reuters · Sep 18, 2023}
Farmers across Bulgaria protest against Ukrainian grain as EU divide grows
^{— Valentina Petrova, Stephen McGrath · AP · Sep 18, 2023}

Meanwhile, the regress continues in Russia:

Human rights in Russia have 'significantly deteriorated' since war - UN expert
^{— Emma Farge, Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber, Rachel More, Gareth Jones · Reuters · Sep 18, 2023}
Human rights in Russia have ‘significantly’ worsened since Ukraine war began, UN-backed expert says
^{— AP · Sep 18, 2023}

:chin: well, not unheard of, part of a modus operandi ...

A sneaky move at a Kremlin meeting may show why Putin took his time in eliminating Prigozhin
^{— Paul Iddon · Business Insider · Sep 17, 2023}

, maybe you didn't read it quite right, shuffling some words.

Activism (and possibly alarmism) can be a bona fides reaction, with scientific justification, and moral guts.

^{(As an aside, you may entertain whatever view you like; around here you'll have to justify them unless you just want to talk about yourself.)}

, climate activism (even alarmism perhaps) can be bona fides scientifically justified. Morally likewise. What of denialism/contrarianism then?

, well, in democracy, government is part of voters (or in voters' employ if you like). For that matter, voters could run for government, make a good enough case to "do the right thing" to get enough votes, or otherwise vote for someone who has done so.

FYI, Haugaard was in the Danish government 1994-1998:

Among his pointedly absurd campaign promises were: 8 hours of free time, 8 hours of rest and 8 hours of sleep; more tailwind on bicycle paths; promises of better weather; right to impotency; Nutella in field rations (which was actually implemented); and shorter queues in supermarkets — Jacob Haugaard (Wikipedia)

(Incidentally, brought up Sortition, which seems a neat idea, sort of.)

, as to a Putinian future trajectory, we can add their propaganda indoctrination oppression efforts (has come up before), which all taken together looks kind of Cold War'ish, not peace-friendly — regress.

Putin says Russia developing weapons based on ‘new physical principles’
^{— Tuqa Khalid · Al Arabiya · Sep 12, 2023}

John Brennan opines (re Trump) ...

Putin wants to salvage Ukraine loss by electing Trump: former CIA director
^{— Sarah K Burris · Raw Story · Sep 12, 2023}

Ekaterina Schulmann opines ...

Russian analyst predicts controversial decision by Putin post-election
^{— Henrik R · dagens.com · Sep 16, 2023}

Russian forces near Norway at '20% or less' than before Ukraine war, Norway's armed-forces chief says
^{— Gwladys Fouche, Sabine Siebold, Nick Macfie · Reuters · Sep 16, 2023}

On our border, on the Russian border, there is maybe 20% or less (Russian) forces left than it used to be before Feb. 24, 2022. If he believed that we were threatening Russia, he couldn't have moved on his troops to Ukraine to fight the war there. Russia knows NATO is not a threat because we are not intending to attack them. Otherwise they would have responded completely different to the accession of Finland. They have talked about it, but they haven't in physical terms. — Eirik Kristoffersen

Has come up before.

Russia threatens ‘military and political consequences’ if Finland, Sweden try joining NATO (Feb 25, 2022) → Russian Official Warns Finland, Sweden Against Joining NATO (Mar 12, 2022) → Ukraine War: Russia warns Sweden and Finland against Nato membership (Apr 11, 2022) → Russia warns of nuclear deployment if Sweden, Finland join NATO (Apr 14, 2022) → Russia threatens ‘retaliatory steps’ if Finland joins NATO (May 12, 2022) → Putin sees no threat from NATO expansion, warns against military build-up (May 16, 2022) → Putin says Finland and Sweden can 'go ahead' and join NATO but warned the countries against hosting the alliance's 'military contingents and infrastructure' (Jun 30, 2022).

Ukrainian NATO membership would primarily mean limiting Putin's Russia's military to do whatever, including land-grab (Jul 3, 2022; Oct 19, 2022).

Russia’s Stripped Its Western Borders to Feed the Fight in Ukraine (Robbie Gramer, Jack Detsch · Foreign Policy · Sep 28, 2022). Russia’s Reindeer Brigade Is Fighting For Its Survival In Southern Ukraine (David Axe · Forbes · Oct 7, 2022). (Is the Kremlin neglecting the CSTO (Jan 11, 2023)? Armenia (Gabriel Gavin · POLITICO · Sep 13, 2023)?)

If Putin's Russia were to assimilate a fifth of Ukraine, then their NATO-phobic argument would continue to apply to the remaining four-fifths of Ukraine just the same. If Putin's Russia was to assimilate all of Ukraine, then Putin's logic could equally be raised vice versa by Moldova Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia (Oct 13, 2022; Nov 26, 2022), and hence the EU. Open-ended, perpetual.

As mentioned before, NATO isn't that dire existential threat to the world's largest country. Buying into that verges a bit on gullibility. Conversely, grabbing that fifth of Ukraine could well make a difference to the Kremlin's geo-political-military power (and perhaps satisfy Putin (Sep 2016; May 2020)).

Peripherally (measles, not sars) ... London, UK ...

Unvaccinated pupils face 21-day isolation as measles cases rise
^{— Daniel Keane · Yahoo · Sep 15, 2023}
Unvaccinated children face 21 days in isolation after rapid rise in measles
^{— Sara Odeen-Isbister · various via MSN · Sep 15, 2023}

There is a definite religious zealotry to it all. Makes me all the more justified in rejecting it. — Merkwurdichliebe

Isn't that a genetic fallacy? No, not quite. Maybe ad odium? Or an association fallacy.

One explanation for the abundance of scientists who support for the official narrative is because there is not much of a career left for them if they go rogue. [...] — Merkwurdichliebe

Notice how the quote, or something similar, could be raised on any topic with a general consensus, to pseudo-level an unlevel world. Casting it as a truth-independent or conspiracy'esque game instead, has become trendy I guess. — jorndoe

Cool, here's an even more generic argument:

Scientists are not infallible, they are human like everyone else. [...] — Merkwurdichliebe

Science begone, the lot. Nothing to see here. Sort of p0m0'ish, too.

By the way, I already differentiated the people and the evidence they point at:

Alternatively, there's sufficient/overwhelming evidence of anthropogenic climate change. After all, scientists point at available evidence, not at "narratives" or "whatever people's opinions". — jorndoe

In my case, my conspiracy theory is called skepticism — Merkwurdichliebe

There are also round-Earth skeptics, E=mc² skeptics, germ skeptics, Moon landing skeptics, biological evolution skeptics, you name it. (skepticism ≠ denial ∧ skepticism ≠ post-truth)

One explanation for the abundance of scientists who support for the official narrative is because there is not much of a career left for them if they go rogue. [...] — Merkwurdichliebe

Alternatively, there's sufficient/overwhelming evidence of anthropogenic climate change. After all, scientists point at available evidence, not at "narratives" or "whatever people's opinions".

Notice how the quote, or something similar, could be raised on any topic with a general consensus, to pseudo-level an unlevel world. Casting it as a truth-independent or conspiracy'esque game instead, has become trendy I guess.

also mentioned biodiversity impairment, which is related — humans all over the place, population growth, deforestation, pollution, nature/wildlife displacement, extinctions, renewability, ...

Interview regarding Prigozhin:

Ivan Prieobrazhensky: After Prigozhin's death, Putin may attack Shoigu (via google translate)
^{— Tatiana Kolesnychenko, Ivan Prieobrazhensky · Wirtualna Polska · Aug 28, 2023}

Has themes from Game of Thrones or The Prince (like opportunism, heartlessness, meticulous calculation, assassination, ruthlessness, whatever means to justify ends, deniability, cynicism, all that).

(stumbled upon Wirtualna Polska, thanks )

Inventive...

Ukraine gets paper drones from Australia
^{— Daisuke Sato · Defence Blog · Mar 21, 2023}
Like a child's project, with profound impact: How cardboard drones can shape Ukraine war
^{— Madeleine Wedesweiler · SBS+AAP · Sep 6, 2023}

Payload: 5 kg
Wingspan: 2 m
Speed: 60 km/h
Range: 120 km
Price: US$3,500

If (half) a dozen of those can take out, say, a parked fighter plane, then it seems worthwhile for the defenders.

Russia-1 TV interview with colonel general Andrey Mordvichev sometime at the end of July 2023:

TheKremlinYap · Sep 9, 2023 · 1m:12s

^{— How long will the war last?
— I think there's still plenty of time to spend. It is pointless to talk about a specified period. If we are talking about Eastern Europe, which we will have to... Of course, then it will be longer.
— Ukraine is only a stepping stone?
— Yes, absolutely. It is only the beginning. I think that all kinds of ideologists and instigators of this war will not stop here.
— How long do you feel they'll have enough fervor for this offensive?
— Until the end of August. Their fervor will last until the end of August, and then there will be a short break. They won't accomplish much in the winter. By spring, I think it will all be over. The question is that we will have to respond to their offensive at some point in time. We have to liberate our lands. Unequivocally. It must be done, and we will have to do it.}

Might have been mainly intended for the general Russian population?

Either way, it goes well with earlier statements (The Guardian, AP, RIA) from Sergey Lavrov + team, and Oleksii Reznikov later echoed some of this (BI). What to make of Dmitry Medvedev's fiery rambling (AJ, The Hill, TASS) in this context? "Ideologist/instigator"? The Moldovans have been nervous for some time (RFE/RL, AP+VOA, WSJ, Reuters, Yahoo, WION, CNN). Incidentally, we've seen other expansive (and provocative) activities (ArcticToday, CNN, AJ, Reuters, CTV, NP) of the world's largest country.

A Putinian vision at work or something? What's your take anyway?

As I said before, the west is stupid if they are not worried about green policies damaging their economy. — Agree-to-Disagree

↪ChatteringMonkey, nature isn't particularly fair (or unfair) — Sep 6, 2023

... and doesn't care about human economy.

maybe fusion could be like a "magic bullet"? — Sep 6, 2023

It's a collective problem and up to humans to decide whether to do something or not.

, well, if ...

yes, damned if you do, and damned if you don't — ChatteringMonkey

... becomes a rationale for not doing anything, then it better be right.


Elsewhere, unrelated, not directly anyway...

Microsoft funding new approach for carbon removal
^{— Nick Robertson · The Hill · Sep 7, 2023}

Have a war, and, quick, an "election", ... :D

Moscow stages local elections in occupied parts of Ukraine
^{— Felix Light, Felix Hoske, Philippa Fletcher · Reuters · Aug 31, 2023}
Russia holds elections in occupied Ukrainian regions in an effort to tighten its grip there
^{— Yuras Karmanau, Dasha Litvinova · AP · Sep 8, 2023}
Ukraine and US condemn ‘sham elections’ in Crimea, Russia decries ‘meddling’
^{— Vikrant Singh · WION · Sep 8, 2023}

Alternate headline: "The Kremlin looks to expand regressive Russia to grabbed land."
I imagine they get lots of requests for comments from news agencies and others.
An open session with them and journalists from all over would be nifty.

Here, when you buy a SIM card for your phone, you immediately get an SMS from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and United Russia Party. [...] People are generally apolitical, inert, and know who will win anyways. — “Baska” · CNN · Sep 8, 2023

It comes alongside an effort to force residents in the regions to accept Russian citizenship, according to a report released last month by the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab. — Rob Picheta, Yulia Kesaieva, Vasco Cotovio, Svitlana Vlasova, Andrew Carey · CNN · Sep 8, 2023

, nothing can be done is a fairly substantial claim, not something we'd want to get wrong, right?

Partially confirms earlier speculation:

Russia’s African coup strategy
^{— Clint Watts · Microsoft Threat Analysis Center · Sep 1, 2023}

So, yes, damned if you do, and damned if you don't... — ChatteringMonkey

Such certainty...?
Well, unless sufficiently justified, the suppositions/scenarios above still apply to those "doomsayers", right?
^{(I mean ... "Suppose [...] What's the worst that could happen?")}
Incidentally, I know someone, not a climatologist, that, with a big sigh, says we're too late, but still have to try.
The Holocene extinction is another factor here; something that ought to be addressed.

, there are two suppositions/scenarios listed, where we could be a majority or enough to make a difference, like actors deciding on a path forward. What matters is in/actions decided upon. Sort of implicit in the suppositions.
(For completion, you're free to add the remaining couple or so scenarios/permutations — climate change or not × do something or not — they just didn't seem as interesting.)

, damned if you do, damned if you don't?
Hmm Didn't that come up earlier?

Putin claims West made Zelenskyy Ukrainian leader to mask "glorification of Nazism"
^{— Global News · Sep 5, 2023 · 1m:47s}

As far as the invasion goes, the concern (at least that I've commented on lately) is what Kyiv possibly could have done, is doing, to be deemed a Nazi rule — a Nazi rule is what the Putinistas have claimed, their public rationale, and it's bunk. I imagine Ukrainian Nazis are doing whatever such extremists do. Going by the report, those Azov folks ain't it (unless Mossad screwed up royally). — Dec 20, 2022

And now "the West" "glorifies Nazism"?

Give it up already. Got old some time ago.

, nature isn't particularly fair (or unfair). But maybe fusion could be like a "magic bullet"?

The source used by (I think, feel free to correct), briefly discusses strategies, solutions, consequences:

When will we run out of fossil fuels?
^{— Ama Lorenz · FairPlanet · Apr 30, 2023}

Just FYI, one of the numbers I was looking for was the net amount of available fossil fuels (over time). This would give an indication of net anthropogenic chemical/physical change of our shared environment, and then an assessment of net effects over time. ("Think we can burn all this accumulated stuff [...]".)

Anyway, I think only a minority of radicals demand immediate drastic political/societal change of the sort that destroys civilization, e.g. Ama Lorenz doesn't. On the other hand, I'd personally prefer not being among the generations of which our children's children say "they knew, and did nothing".

lots of people [...] are bitterly opposed to the level of change that is required — BC

I suspect that many people don't want to lower their standard of living despite the fact that there is evidence/consensus of anthropogenic climate change. — Agree-to-Disagree

Right, hence the failure in the second supposition above.
Ego-priorities — of those that will be gone soon enough, leaving our children's children...
Just don't be surprised if such moral failure is met with scorn.
But changing path doesn't mean everyone goes back to stoneage living.

Anyone have solid/reliable numbers for

• amount of fossil fuel deposits (let's say oil and coal)
• amount of fossil fuels burned by humans

since (or shortly before) the industrial revolution, something in that range?

I wouldn't expect much added to the deposits in this (geologically short) timeframe, but haven't come across solid numbers on available deposits. Numbers for burned fossil fuels since then are easier to come by, or estimates at least (Our World in Data). Graphing them out over time, should more or less be "opposite", the former going down, the latter going up, and adding them should more or less be constant over time in this timeframe.

There are cars, vehicles, machinery, houses, buildings, people, ..., all over the place, happily burning deposits in one way or other. Think we can burn all this accumulated stuff (geological timeframe) in a century or two without noticeable effects...? At least there's active research into fusion.



Suppose, for the sake of argument, that anthropogenic climate change, pollution and all that is a red herring, but we still do something about it. What's the worst that could happen? Longer oil supply? Less plastic in the oceans?
Suppose that anthropogenic climate change, pollution and all that is quite impactful, with consequences for future generations, and we do nothing about it. What's the worst that could happen?

We have not merely been given the world from our parents, we are also borrowing it from our children. — some African proverb I think

Trolls would have us do nothing about it, despite evidence/consensus of anthropogenic climate change, pollution, etc.

If Russia was truly fighting a defensive war, there would be large numbers of Russians expats going back to Russia. There wouldn't have been the brain drain that we saw happening when the mobilization was started. — ssu

Recruitments from prisons have come up prior.

We have no funding restrictions. The country and the government are providing everything that the army asks for. — Putin · Reuters · Dec 21, 2022

But some officials said the goal of attracting 400,000 contract soldiers this year is likely to be unrealistic. That’s roughly equal to the total number of professional troops Russia had before the invasion was launched on Feb. 24, 2022. — Bloomberg · Mar 24, 2023

As of late June 2023, Russia has been appealing to citizens of neighbouring countries with recruitment adverts for individuals to fight in Ukraine. [...] — UK Ministry of Defence · Sep 3, 2023

DECLARATION OF THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Cuba faces human trafficking operations for the purpose of military recruitment.

The Ministry of the Interior detected and is working on the neutralization and dismantling of a human trafficking network that operates from Russia to incorporate Cuban citizens living there, and even some from Cuba, into the military forces participating in war operations in Ukraine. Attempts of this nature have been neutralized and criminal proceedings have been initiated against people involved in these activities.

Cuba's enemies promote distorted information that seeks to tarnish the image of the country and present it as an accomplice to these actions, which we categorically reject.

Cuba has a firm and clear historical position against mercenarism and plays an active role in the United Nations in repudiation of this practice, being the author of several of the initiatives approved in that forum.

Cuba is not part of the war in Ukraine. It is acting and will act vigorously against anyone, from the national territory, who participates in any form of human trafficking for the purpose of recruitment or mercenarism for Cuban citizens to use arms against any country.

Havana, September 4, 2023 — Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Cuba · Sep 4, 2023

At a checkpoint between Kolotilovka (Russia) and Pokrovka (Ukraine) north of Kharkiv:

How Ukrainians are fleeing life in Russian-held territory
^{— Aya Ibrahim · Deutsche Welle · Sep 1, 2023 · 3m:28s}

Ukrainians in the occupied Donbas area (maybe others) apparently make their way to such border crossings, away from the frontlines. Those kids may still not be out of harm's way, though. Bumpy, yet in contrast to relatively nearby warring. At first, I thought that soldier on the right, at the start of the footage, looked like wearing a bomb (:grin:).

Such markedly different choices of words regarding governments (embedded links mine) ...

Even if Russia can't be considered an empire in the same way the US is, obviously there's plenty wrong with Russian rule for people wanting to resist it. — Tzeentch

"Dictator" is being kind. Absolute scum of the Earth, better? The fiery pit is too good for that man. — Tzeentch

I'm sure you can see why some suspect(ed) you of ... ehh certain autocrat/anti-democratic sympathies (and an axe to grind). Hereby encouraging you to whip up a new thread.

As far as Bostrom's argument goes ...

↪Zaneemia

It seems to me that if Bostrum’s hypothesis applies to us, it must also apply to those running the simulation, and so on to infinity. It’s simulations all the way down. — NOS4A2

, are those Molotov cocktails?

As to the former (Ukraine), I'm thinking that hate, unity, nationalism, patriotism grow easy during invasion, ongoing bombing, interrupted while trying to shed the shackles of the dominating neighbor.

As to the latter (Russia), those state-sanctioned, organized, systematic efforts carry a faint whiff of Hitlerjugend (and Soviet methods), which remains kind of ironic. Putin lashes out at West ‘cancelling’ Russian culture, says it reeks of Hitler’s Germany (TASS · Mar 25, 2022). If this is what the Kremlin means by "a multipolar world", then ... well, they're not particularly trying to go for a peaceful path forward. Regress. Looks like an indirect admission of lack of faith in the people. Hopefully, they'll see through it (and not get arrested).

Anyway, such differences in (going back to) school. And different still in, say, Norway and Canada.

Reports from the ground:

Ukraine's Kharkiv builds classrooms underground to protect students from missiles
^{— Vitalii Hnidyi, Max Hunder, Angus MacSwan · Reuters · Aug 30, 2023}
Media: Education Minister says 76% of institutions in Ukraine have bomb shelters
^{— Dinara Khalilova · The Kyiv Independent · Aug 31, 2023}
In wartime Ukraine, going back to school means preparing for air raids and huddling in shelters
^{— Olga Voitovych, Ivana Kottasová · CNN · Sep 1, 2023}

Not like when I went to school, fortunately. Kind of a testament to Kremlin efforts I suppose. Hopefully, some of those rooms will become tourist attractions instead, the sooner the better.

Meanwhile:

Russian students are returning to school, where they face new lessons to boost their patriotism
^{— Dasha Litvinova · AP · Sep 1, 2023}
Inside Putin's push to rewrite Russian history in favor of his war in Ukraine
^{— Yuliya Talmazan, Artem Grudinin · NBC · Sep 3, 2023}

Wow.

, yeah. It's when it turns dangerous/dehumanizing/detrimental that it becomes everyone's problem. For the time being, I'm not all that optimistic.