What is your explanation for existence? — Benj96

If there was a discernible explanation for existence, then that would exist too. There can't be another reason for it all, for existence. And... Nevermind. Self-explanatory, then? An analysis in modal logic can't deduce anything in particular that's (unconditionally) necessary, perhaps other than the basic logic (identity/non-contradiction) we started out with in the first place, which shouldn't be that surprising.

In absence of anything and everything, there can't be constraints, conservation (physics), prevention, etc, either. Not much to talk about it would seem, not even anything preventing something from coming about.

OK, well, this pursuit seems kind of odd. Might be more fruitful to instead try categorizing whatever does exist.

I'll just run with some eclectic sort of realism for now, pick a bit here and there that makes sense. We might talk about some things, like spacetime, objects, processes, ... It's one place to start anyway. Some like to chat about objective versus subjective, i.e. existentially mind-independent versus existentially mind-dependent, but that sometimes gets weird. Chaos versus order? Maybe we could also delineate/demarcate where such stuff makes sense and not. Onwards ontology...

, nah, just upfront, transparent, cooperative (regardless of the Frump thing going on).

I guess they have a point

:up:

(oh hey, good to see you back)

(reported elsewhere, adapted by me, as the topic has come up prior in the thread)

Ukrainians figure out how to take down Russian bombs:
On Dec 30^th the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces released its daily battlefield update, noting that their soldiers had shot down a significant number of Russian missiles and drones. Ukrainian forces were able to shoot down 58 cruise missiles as well as 23 unmanned aerial vehicles in a 24-hour period according to the General Staff. December was a difficult month for Ukraine as the country saw several major missile and drone attacks that not only damaged key infrastructure but also killed nearly a dozen civilians. On Dec 16^th a fresh barrage of missiles knocked out power in Ukraine and put the whole country under air raid alarm according to CNN journalists Olga Voitovych and Eliza Mackintosh.

They have set a goal to leave Ukrainians without light, water, and heat — Denys Shmyhal (Ukraine Prime Minister · Dec 16, 2022)

But Shmyhal also said something interesting, pointing out that Ukrainian air defense forces had shot down 60 of the 76 missiles fired at the country—a figure that has revealed a big change in the war. Whether it be with German-supplied Flakpanzer Gepards or with man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS), Ukraine has gotten very good at thwarting Russia's air campaign. Back in October of 2022 Russia's military strategists switched tactics and began targeting Ukraine's critical infrastructure as a way to weaken morale and collapse the country's will to fight. Russia's escalation initially worked well. One attack on Oct 10^th involved 80 missiles and 24+ Iranian Shahed kamikaze drones which killed 19 Ukrainians and wounded 100+ more according to the Atlantic Council.

nearly half of Ukraine's energy grid has been knocked out by recent Russian missile strikes — James McKinley (New York Times journalist · Nov 18, 2022)

Today Ukraine's energy grid remains fragile but it is still operating and still providing power to citizens because of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' ability to shoot down Russian missiles. Part of the reason why Ukraine has become so successful at shooting down Russian missiles is because of the equipment it has received from its Western allies. In early November, according to CBS News, Ukraine acquired its first shipments of National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems as well as its first Aspide Air Defense Systems.

The NASAMS systems had a 100 percent success rate in intercepting Russian missiles as the Kremlin continues its ruthless bombardment of Ukraine — Lloyd Austin (US Defense Secretary · Nov 16, 2022)

But it isn't just expensive equipment that has made a difference. Igla-S MANPADS have proven to be very adept at intercepting incoming Russian missiles. During the Dec 29^th attack, a MANPAD was filmed shooting down a low-flying Kh-101 cruise missile according to Tanmay Kadam of the Eurasian Times.

The missile was detected visually by a group of Ukrainian air defense personnel deployed in the zone of the flight of the missile, following which one of them fired on the missile from Igla MANPADS — Tanmay Kadam (Eurasian Times · Dec 29, 2022)

This wasn't the first time a cruise missile had been shot down by a Ukrainian soldier armed with a MANPAD. In October, Dmytro Shumskyi was credited with downing two Russian missiles in Chernihiv with an FIM-92 Stinger.

Questions:
How is this taken in the Kremlin? Should a change in their tactics be expected?
Seems clear enough that taking down the bombs have saved lives. Expensive, but surely worthwhile?

2022, June 14 — Hans Island is split between Canada and the Danish territory of Greenland. — Isaac

The infamous Whisky War. :)

2016, November 28 — Belgium and the Netherlands swap land near Lanaye and Oost-Maarland over the discovery of a headless body several years prior, which the Belgian authorities could not access without crossing Dutch territory. The border has been straightened out and now runs down the centre of the Meuse River.[6] The change took effect on 1 January 2018. — Isaac

The Meuse conflict was resolved easier than the San Juan wetland conflict, but at least Nicaragua abides by UN's verdict.

The list has a few items related to the USSR (past Kremlin rule).

To illustrate — Isaac

Moscow is further away still.

talk of Ukrainian agency and Ukrainian objectives is nothing but propaganda — Isaac

...? Nah.
Though, I'm wondering, is there an (implicit) argument against democracy ("majority dictatorship") here somewhere?

Controversies...

Putin Thanks Church for Supporting Ukraine Invasion in Christmas Message
^{— Evan Gershkovich, James Marson · The Wall Street Journal · Jan 7, 2023}
(↑ covers more than Putin)

Former Moscow-linked Church claims religious persecution as security raids heat up
^{— Scott McLean, Svitlana Vlasova, Matthias Somm · CNN · Jan 15, 2023}

Persecution of Christians in Ukraine?
National security concerns?
What's your take?

Seems unlikely that it's religious (to me at least), except politics has spilled into religious space with some force/fervor.
Perhaps analogous to...

Christians 'cannot stand idly by': Russian priest arrested after denouncing invasion of Ukraine
^{— Mike Thom · CHVN Radio · Mar 12, 2022}

Russia-Ukraine war: Priest detained for criticising Putin
^{— Aleem Maqbool · BBC · Jul 17, 2022}

Either way, persecution versus security, religious versus political, are easy controversies to raise, and derail.

So take the arbitrary border between Russia and Finland (1300 km or something).
One side of that line is ruled by a ruthless autocrat.
The other side is a democracy, observing fair respect for human rights.
As far as I can tell, the differences are stark enough.
(I suppose we might ask where people would prefer to relocate.)
So, the line may certainly be arbitrary in one sense, yet there's a clear enough political demarcation.
One of suppressive ruthless autocracy versus democracy and rights, and then some.
And that matters.
The otherwise arbitrary border also differentiates how people on each side live (or presently can live), and their trajectories, which matters in particular if one side wanted to take over the other.
In one sense arbitrary, in another not so much.

Sure, , just keep any tunnel vision at bay.
NATO has also helped dull national attention to defense.
Switzerland and Sweden have a tradition of neutrality.
Maybe those days are over?


, ah, the border-free no-nation world again.
Easy enough to understand, except we're not there.
I guess one might hope for a better humanity; thorough cooperation, participation, ethics of being part of the larger world, non-aggression, etc?
Was it Sanders that said something like "not us and them, it's all us"?
(Incidentally, I don't think Putin could be part thereof, not if wielding power at least.)
Anyway, the "Slava Ukraini" thing is clear enough in this case, a self-proclaimed (partial) identity, with "throw the invaders out" connotations.

Kremlin rule isn't really that...attractive...

Hundreds of Russian doctors sign open letter asking Putin to ‘stop abusing’ Navalny
^{— Elena Giordano · POLITICO · Jan 11, 2023}

Defiant Navalny has opposed Putin’s war in Ukraine from prison. His team fear for his safety
^{— Nic Robertson · CNN · Jan 13, 2023}

Germany calls on Russia to allow Navalny to receive necessary medical aid
^{— Alexander Ratz, Miranda Murray, Rachel More · Reuters · Jan 13, 2023}

The plot thickens further...

How was a Canadian engine used in an Iranian drone in Ukraine?
^{— Aron Reich · Jerusalem Post · Jan 13, 2023}

There's no such thing as a Ukrainian identity. Ukrainians identify in all sorts of different, occasionally completely incompatible ways. — Isaac

You mean in general, no such thing? If you mean the same in all respects, then sure. Yet, a good lot of Ukrainians have come together against the invader doing their "Slava Ukraini" thing or whatever. I'd count that (even if temporary) as a kind of Ukrainian identity marker or proclamation.

A potential badness here is hate engendered by the invasion. And slogans can become symbolic among extremists, partake in evolving into spurring whatever aggression, and so hate lives on, cycles of badness.

Anyway, Ukrainians have come together against the invader. They don't have to be the same in all or most respects to self-identify (and act) as such.

Europe isn't worried about their security. — Tzeentch

Err yes, Europeans are worried about security. Except, (collectively) they're kind of politically impotent in that respect.

There was a general air that Russia wasn't really much of a threat, which is changing to some degree. You'll find plenty of voices against the EU and cooperation (and NATO for that matter), which plays right into Putin's hands (hmm almost have to wonder if there's an influence there somewhere :chin:). Now watch European politics fumble about. :smile:

“You cannot pick and choose”
^{— Annalena Baerbock · German Federal Foreign Office · Jan 12, 2023}

Let's see then.

Maybe not that surprising.

Hacked Russian Files Reveal Propaganda Accord With China
^{— Mara Hvistendahl, Alexey Kovalev · The Intercept · Dec 30, 2022}

To the extent they're observable/quantifiable, effects might be interesting.

It's starting to look a bit like the CSTO is failing, in some ways at least.
Russia has been a sort of deterrent within the alliance against conflict, but now Putin's Russia is busy elsewhere (Ukraine), and apparently neglecting the alliance.

As far as power-strategies go, it's in Putin's interest to keep them in check, and, at the same time, have them "keep each other in check".
In principle, more small states are easier for Putin's Russia to "manage" (dominate), than few large states, as long as they don't work (too closely) together.

What might the Kremlin do (if anything)?
Laissez-faire could get out of hand I suppose. Unless 3rd parties intervene? But then...


(As an aside, it might be interesting to count/compare occurrences of "pro-Ukraine", "pro-Putin", "pro-US", "pro-whatever" in the thread.)

Some bare basics (observations):

("Everyone bad" —the thread :grin:)
Putin + team responsible for attacking. Kyiv responsible for defending.
Attackers decide actions for defenders to deal/contend with. Responsibility/blame uneven, asymmetric.
Attackers' background increasingly autocratic, suppressive, ... Defenders move toward more transparency, democratic standards, ...
Invasion/attacks multipronged, like conventional (e.g. artillery), intimidation/terrorism-like (bombing throughout, building instability, insurgency), cultural (e.g. re-enculturation, suppression), political (e.g. narrative-hijacking, annexations by fakery, land grab, propaganda). That's what the defenders then have on their hands, but have a good deal of foreign aid/support.

Argumentative commentary losing sight of this stuff is kind of suspect.

Putin + team more or less blame "the West" (a couple or so continents I guess), which they cast as out to destroy Russia, a dire existential threat. Kyiv cast Putin's Russia as a threat to Ukraine (and others), and wants them to leave.

These are some of their public rationales/justifications.

Curiosity and trust perhaps.
Didn't Morpheus mention something about control? Or power? Been a while.
These could be reasonable factors.

Judgment Day

, immunization can prepare the body to do away with the invader — the sooner the better — and hence
can decrease chance of mutations
can decrease transmission (showering/sanitizing can help too :gasp: oh and decreasing your exhaust on others)
can prevent death

But of course there's no magic bullet, no guarantees or certain stoppage, it's life, bathed in organics and other hazards. I guess every bit helps (if done (right)).

Fortunately, it hasn't been as dangerous as the 2003 outbreak, which had a 10% fatality rate, and we're fortunate that such a deadly mutation hasn't emerged in this round. — Oct 19, 2022

Some mutations in this round have proven wickedly good at getting around.

Investigations into origins have come up again recently. We'll see what comes of it.

Something that's received attention, is getting kids to do something bad, whether to themselves or other. (I tossed in a list of examples toward the bottom.)
With Internet anonymity, it's something anyone could do, regardless of location, age, whatever.
The topic is also related to bullying. If a kid isn't reading this stuff themselves, other kids in their circle might.
Some say it's purely the responsibility of parents to deal with, others add school teachers.
As far as I can tell, this is a fair case for proactive censorship. Something like, what good is a society that does not try to look after children and what they do?
Note, though, there are also positive examples, like this one:

Ice Bucket Challenge dramatically accelerated the fight against ALS (Jun 4, 2019)

Anyway, I'm guessing most would want this stuff minimized both via some sort of censoring and education. Arguments, informed opinions, ...?

_{Examples
U.S. says 82 youths have died in "choking game" (Feb 14, 2008)
Ingesting and Aspirating Dry Cinnamon by Children and Adolescents: The “Cinnamon Challenge” (May 1, 2013)
Factitial Dermatitis Due to the “Salt and Ice Challenge” (Apr 2014)
Mom believes son died from ‘choking game’ online (Mar 22, 2016)
Correction: The Choking Game on YouTube: An Update (May 17, 2016)
Teens are daring each other to eat Tide pods. We don’t need to tell you that’s a bad idea. (Jan 17, 2018)
‘Salt and ice challenge’ leaves teens with severe burns (Jan 26, 2019)
What Is the Momo Challenge? (Feb 26, 2019)
Current Trends in Social Media–Associated Skin Harm Among Children and Adolescents (Apr 2019)
Authorities warn of viral TikTok challenge causing fires (Jan 22, 2020)
FDA warns about serious problems with high doses of the allergy medicine diphenhydramine (Benadryl) (Sep 24, 2020)
Dangers of the TikTok Benadryl challenge (Jan 7, 2021)
TikTok, Tide Pods and Tiger King: health implications of trends taking over pediatric populations (Feb 2021)}

It's nothing but a transparent effort to smear the left (typically seen as well-meaning, if too ideological) by associating the with the far-right (more typically seen as 'evil', or at least very selfish). — Isaac

Still conflating what I wrote at least. Radicals is still the word here. And still not all. (Can't speak for others of course.)

, I kind of read 's comment differently:

Observation: Putinistas tend to be radicals ✓
Not: Radicals are Putinistas

(Rashists?)

Maybe I read it wrong.

Rafael's SPYDER defense system evolves to shoot down ballistic missile threats
^{— Yonah Jeremy Bob · Jerusalem Post · Jan 4, 2023}

Send some to the Ukrainians.

asking us to believe that despite (2) being true, (1) just happened anyway, by chance — Isaac

Well, it all goes further still ...

CNN Exclusive: A single Iranian attack drone found to contain parts from more than a dozen US companies
^{— Natasha Bertrand · CNN · Jan 4, 2023}

our position is very clear: Infineon condemns the Russian aggression against Ukraine. It is a blatant violation of international law and an attack on the values of humanity. [...] apart from the direct business it proves difficult to control consecutive sales throughout the entire lifetime of a product. Nevertheless, we instruct our customers including distributors to only conduct consecutive sales in line with applicable rules. — Gregor Rodehüser (Infineon)

While reading ...
Exclusive: The global supply trail that leads to Russia’s killer drones (via MSN)
^{— Stephen Grey, Maurice Tamman, Maria Zholobova · Reuters · Dec 15, 2022}
I was vaguely reminded of ... — Dec 15, 2022

Stop funding Russia’s nuclear weapons
^{— Henry Sokolski; The Hill; Nov 13, 2022} — Nov 14, 2022

Florida, Hong Kong, in addition to US/EU funds going to Rosatom, ..., the plot thickens. — Dec 15, 2022

The workings of capitalism, free/open enterprising, redistribution/resale, globalization, etc, ...
All it takes is one threat or aggressor (or fear), and we find ourselves in a predicament. I guess the fearful can DIY or pay others. If such initial threats could be done away with, or perhaps sufficiently minimized, then the predicament wouldn't be much of a concern.
The quote above, though, converges on conspiracy theory. Whether such a nefarious conspiracy exists or not, threats and predicaments persist just the same. :/
Don't forget tensions between democracies and autocracies/dictatorships here.

Exposed Outpost Russian Threats to Baltic Security and Transatlantic Responses
^{— Vasquez, Akturan, Shura, Li, Rajski, Sarkes, Castro · European Horizons, University of Chicago}

The war in Ukraine is all about democracy vs dictatorship
^{— Kacper Szulecki, Tore Wig · Review of Democracy, Central European University · Apr 9, 2022}

(don't think the Finns are into doing a land grab :grin: hey @ssu, up for grabbing Kaliningrad, or, heck, Estonia?)

Couldn't you just contrast real versus imaginary/fictional?
So fictions exist too, they're just not real?

Anyway, it seems like the opening post is more about temporality.
Other thread on the topic:

What's the big mystery about time?

, right, Russia with Crimea is in a stronger power position than without. And a land corridor helps.
That's disregarding Ukrainian defense/resistance, which weakens Russia.
I suppose something similar would hold for other areas; Crimea stands out for mentioned geographical-political-military reasons.
Russia without isn't doomed for destruction, though, but militarily (and resources-wise) weaker.

Hope both Ukrainians and Russians got into 2023 without too much carnage. Not sure if there are any here on the forum.

On the chess board, the frontlines haven't moved much recently, despite much blighting.

Roughly four questions of relevance ...

1. How is voluntary exposure to so-called "Western culture" destroying Russia? Is this up to Putin to decide for all Russians anyway...?
2. What has Kyiv done and continues doing to be labeled a Nazi regime? Needing to be liberated/assimilated by Russia, under Moscow/Kremlin control?
3. What dire existential threat is NATO to Russia? Say, is Russia doomed to destruction, can't go on, without Crimea being a part of Russia?
4. What warrants depriving Ukraine (the chance) to develop via (further democratic) self-determination/governance?

Inquiries (not answers), derived from public statements, including supposed rationale for war.

Putin uses New Year address for wartime rallying cry to Russians
^{— Jake Cordell, Kevin Liffey · Reuters · Dec 31, 2022}

• Blunt address on main family festival puts war centre-stage
• Putin casts war as fight for survival that requires sacrifices
• Russia is "defending our people and our historical territory"
• President accuses West of provoking conflict — Summary

Nothing new I guess, that's what he wants others to hear

• Nazis
• West out to destroy Russia
• existential fight
• historical territory (Ukraine)
• preserve Russia's greatness and independence
• call for nationalism

So, naught towards reconciliation/peace, more like the opposite :/

Russia says it is extremely concerned by Ukrainian missile downed over Belarus
^{— Jake Cordell, Kevin Liffey · Reuters · Dec 27, 2022}

This is an incident that causes extreme concern, not only for us, but for our Belarusian partners. — Dmitry Peskov

:D Meanwhile, Kyiv is extremely concerned about 1000s of missiles/drones having bombed (and continue to bomb) Ukraine regularly, leaving behind destruction (and deaths).

As far as I recall (unreliable), three stray missiles have originated from Ukrainian anti-missile/drone efforts, in each of Poland, Moldova, Belarus, though I'd sort of expect more that haven't been found (yet).

While stray missiles certainly is a concern, it looks like the Kremlin is attempting to divert attention. Not sure if they're trying to goad Belarus, though a more active Belarusian role would be in their interest.

2022 Russian strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure
^{— Wikipedia · ongoing}

National Bank: Ukraine’s GDP to fall by one third in 2022; Russian attacks on energy system imperil economy
^{— Dinara Khalilova · Kyiv Independent via Yahoo News · Dec 27, 2022}

, FYI, if you hover at the bottom of a post, you can click the three dots (•••) and then the flag (⚑), to report unhinged nonsense rants, whatever against the site guidelines. :up:

are neither support nor deductive proof — Lambert Strether

Yep, they're support. Not deductive proof, but support, yep. Not sure why you'd contradict that. Oh well.

Nazi — Lambert Strether

As far as the invasion goes, the concern (at least that I've commented on lately) is what Kyiv possibly could have done, is doing, to be deemed a Nazi rule — a Nazi rule is what the Putinistas have claimed, their public rationale, and it's bunk. — Dec 20, 2022 (765405)

Anyway, several references quotes observations whatever have already been posted in ↑ that regard. There's also a bit irony in that, given the claimants. :D

Neither Maria Lvova-Bulova's biased claims or [...] — Lambert Strether

What claims are they again...?

your denials of my very accurate denials — Lambert Strether

that actually describes you — Lambert Strether

has been yours — Lambert Strether

You're the one — Lambert Strether

You, however, — Lambert Strether

Tu quoque'ish.

ties to the American defense industry — Lambert Strether

Isn't that what we call a poisoning the well fallacy, this being a philosophy forum an'all?

, ye olde Nazi thing has been discussed already, keep up, e.g. comments 765405, 765255, 757789, ...

adopting orphans isn't kidnapping or genocide — Lambert Strether

Any Ukrainian children that has been taken to Russia, shipped off by/to someone they don't know, will have to be documented in sufficient detail and publicly, especially so that remaining family/guardians can find them. So far, Russian kidnapp...err authorities haven't provided much. Some Ukrainian parents/families have nonetheless managed to find their children — already documented in posted reports — examples.

, support yes (a fair amount at that), deductive proof no (if that's what you're looking for). If you just dismiss what's been reported with a casual handwave, then you haven't contributed anything here, which might be why some have used the t word.

Anyway, personally I'm not inclined to repeat yet again. (In particular not to someone that waltzes in and repeats/parrots old cruft yet again.) :) Have a good New Year. :up:

, there has been a few independent reports, sort of consistently for a while now, but it's just about impossible to figure out under the current circumstances. Returning them is part of Zelenskyy's peace plan. Seems likely that children were taken, and also likely some of the claimed numbers were inflated. Anyway, kidnapping is usually considered a serious crime.

Child abductions in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
^{— Wikipedia · ongoing}

Putin’s Advocate for Child Welfare Is Straight-Up Stealing Kids in Ukraine, U.K. Says
^{— Allison Quinn · The Daily Beast · Jun 16, 2022}

Canada sanctions Russian ‘architect’ of Ukraine child abduction scheme
^{— The Associated Press via Global News · Aug 25, 2022}

Children of war
^{— Alina Rohach · New Eastern Europe · Sep 12, 2022}

the Russian Federation is preparing changes to the legislation that will allow the adoption of Ukrainian children using a simplified procedure

"Now, they are ours". Russia and child abduction, the evidence of trafficking.
^{— Jean-Marc Adolphe · les humanités · Sep 19, 2022}

Ukraine parents ‘want their children back’ from Russia
^{— Al Jazeera · Oct 7, 2022}

How Moscow grabs Ukrainian kids and makes them Russians
^{— Sarah El Deeb, Anastasiia Shvets, Elizaveta Tilna, Lori Hinnant, Cara Anna, Erika Kinetz · AP News · Oct 13, 2022}

Russia abducting Ukrainian children, putting up for adoption in Russia
^{— The Jerusalem Post · Oct 17, 2022}

How a Mariupol father survived a Russian POW camp and traveled to Moscow to save his kids
^{— Svetlana Martova, Sam Breazeale · Meduza · Nov 4, 2022}

Russia's forced deportation of Ukrainian children is genocide with identifiable perpetrators
^{— Halya Coynash · Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group · Dec 9, 2022}

20 children abducted by the Russian Federation were returned to Ukraine: among them is the daughter of a servicewoman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
^{— Khrystyna Velychanska, Julia Sokolova · Fakty ICTV · Dec 17, 2022}

May have been posted before (in which case I apologize). This Reuters article was just published.

Explainer: What is Zelenskiy's 10-point peace plan?
<sup>— Lidia Kelly, Michael Perry · Reuters · Dec 27, 2022

1. Radiation and nuclear safety, focusing on restoring safety around Europe's largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine, which is now-Russian occupied.
2. Food security, including protecting and ensuring Ukraine's grain exports to the world's poorest nations.
3. Energy security, with focus on price restrictions on Russian energy resources, as well as aiding Ukraine with restoring its power infrastructure, half of which has been damaged by Russian attacks.
4. Release of all prisoners and deportees, including war prisoners and children deported to Russia.
5. Restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity and Russia reaffirming it according [to] the U.N. Charter, which Zelenskiy said is "not up to negotiations".
6. Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, restoration of Ukraine's state borders with Russia.
7. Justice, including the establishment of a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes.
8. Ecocide, protection of environment, with focus on demining and restoring water treatment facilities.
9. Prevention of escalation of conflict, and building security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic space, including guarantees for Ukraine.
10. Confirmation of the war's end, including a document signed by the involved parties.</sup>

The article has a few more comments. Unlikely that Putin + team will accept this plan.

Peripherally, regarding 2/5...

Larger Wheat Harvest in Ukraine Than Expected
^{— NASA · Dec 4, 2022}

However, Russia will likely reap the benefit of a significant portion of the close to 27-million-ton wheat crop, said Skakun. The analysis showed that 5.8 million tons of wheat was harvested from areas that were not under Ukrainian control. That represents a loss of at least $1 billion, Abbassian noted.

Exclusive: Crimea showers Syria with wheat, Ukraine cries foul ^{(via US News)
— Jonathan Saul, Maha El Dahan, Maya Gebeily, Nigel Hunt, Pavel Polityuk, Frank Jack Daniel · Reuters · Dec 19, 2022}

Hmm... :chin:

Wait, , didn't the thread already establish that "Everyone bad"?

Lavrov is just reiterating their ultimatum, i.e. it's not talks.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is looking at talks with UN as mediator.

Ukraine Wants Peace Summit At UN By End Of February
^{— RFE/RL · Dec 26, 2022}

Ukraine live briefing: Putin bans sale of Russian oil to countries involved in price cap; Kyiv seeks U.N. peace summit
^{— Kelsey Ables, Leo Sands, Sammy Westfall · Washington Post · Dec 27, 2022}

Putin + team is going to read the fineprint and opt out, is my guess, unless something changes.
Taking the reins would be pushing ahead with the proposal either way.

Russia's Lavrov: West and Ukraine Want to Destroy Russia ^{(via US News)
— Lidia Kelly, Michael Perry · Reuters · Dec 27, 2022}

Notice how Lavrov's rhetoric would apply the same if Russia was to assimilate those five oblasts.
Apparently they ignore that Russia will just have to make due without Ukraine (if Ukraine + supporters have their way)?
Russia without Ukraine is doomed for destruction...? Absurd. That would take quite a lot, though admittedly Putin ain't helping.

Further east ...

A Russian critic of Putin died after falling out of a hotel window in India
^{— Niharika Sharma · Quartz · Dec 27, 2022}

Hmm seems like a trend of sorts? Critique brings bad luck?

There's no such thing as a perfect social system; the more individuals, the more unhappy about something, that's just history and statistics, and homo sapiens.

Democracy itself is more about how rulers are picked than about what they do, though, and so they sort of become representatives empowered by a majority (at least in theory), which is also due to practical matters (some sort of temporary hierarchy if you will). They tend to promise different than what they (can) keep — a marketing type thing.

Any one person is outnumbered by two with a different sentiment/attitude. Individuals in a society could be ruled by organized thugs or a (transparent) democratic majority. Personally, I'll run with the least bad. Don't like democracy? Then just leave the ruling to me. ;)

However democracy is or might be implemented, the details, is another matter, and could be discussed/voted until kingdom come, is my guess.

(link injected by me)

Despite the all-encompassing crackdown on domestic civil society groups across Russia, curiously the Russian Imperial Movement continues to operate. — OSCE

... and Rusich ... :/ The invasion wasn't about that stuff anyway. A ruse, an excuse.

Extremists...

Secret Service Members Found To Be Part of Far-Right Extremist Group—Report
^{— Darragh Roche · Newsweek vis MSN · Dec 13, 2022}

2018 Chemnitz protests
^{— Wikipedia · ongoing}

Some reemergence lately...

White Crusade: How to Prevent Right-Wing Extremists from Exploiting the Internet (pdf)
^{— Christina Schori Liang, John Cross · GCSP · Jul 2020}

Anyway, warring breeds hate. I'm expecting some of that among Ukrainians.

:/

Meanwhile, Dnipro, Ukraine, Ukrainian soldier sips coffee amid firefight (52s). Certainly, coffee is a requirement in any civilized society, but... :D

The mercs are on the move they say.

US believes Wagner mercenary group is expanding influence and took delivery of North Korean arms
^{— Kevin Liptak · CNN · Dec 22, 2022}

In certain instances, Russian military officials are actually subordinate to Wagner’s command. It’s pretty apparent to us that Wagner is emerging as a rival power center to the Russian military and other Russian ministries. [...] It seems as though Mr. Prigozhin is willing to just throw Russian bodies into the meat grinder in Bakhmut. In fact, about 1,000 Wagner fighters have been killed in the fighting in just recent weeks, and we believe that 90% of those 1,000 fighters were, in fact, convicts. [...] It’s all about how good he looks to Mr. Putin, and how well he’s regarded at the Kremlin. In fact, we would go so far as to say that his influence is expanding. — John Kirby

Everyone knows that it’s been a long time since North Korea has supplied weapons to the Russian Federation. And no other such attempts have even been made. Therefore, these arms deliveries from the DPRK are nothing more than gossip and speculation. — Yevgeny Prigozhin

Allegedly, prisoners with "serious medical conditions" are fair game, and Navalny of all people.

Navalny: mercenary boss visited his jail to recruit for Ukraine war
^{— Alex Richardson · Reuters · Dec 21, 2022}

No one can deprive a person of the right to defend his motherland, his mother and his family by all available means. — Yevgeny Prigozhin

The foundations of law are being destroyed in Russia for the sake of a future defeat in a shameful war. — Alexei Navalny

With recruiting from state prisons, granting pardons, whatever, those groups (Wagner, Rusich, ...) are already plugged into the system. But how much of a difference are they making? Can they become a political force in Russia?

I guess talks are looking unlikely by either side at the moment.

Kremlin says no chance of Ukraine talks as Zelenskiy travels to Washington ^{(via jpost, alarabiya)
— Reuters · Dec 21, 2022}

Didn't really seem like there was much chance earlier, either.

The Ukrainian side needs to take into account the realities that have developed during this time. And these realities indicate that new subjects have appeared in the Russian Federation. They appeared as a result of referendums that took place in these territories. Without taking these new realities into account, no kind of progress is possible. — Dmitry Peskov (Dec 13, 2022)

Crimea Donetsk Kherson Luhansk Zaporizhzhia constitute something in the range of a quarter of Ukraine, where Russia occupies a bit less at the moment, a sizeable part of Ukraine.

Any takeaways from Zelenskyy's visit to the US, apart from PR I mean?
(At least it's good to see that disagreement is open/unblocked (unlike ...), e.g. Gaetz, Boebert, though I'll have to admit finding it strange why anyone would vote for Boebert.)

Ukraine welcomes 'transparency' from GOP scrutiny of war aid, ambassador says
^{— ABC News via MSN · Dec 18, 2022}

... The Ukrainians did prepare a bit.

One lever is that if Russia meets certain demands of the international community, such as withdrawing from the areas occupied since the beginning of the war, the sanctions imposed as a result can be suspended. We have to increase the diplomatic pressure so that exactly that happens. — Martin Schirdewan (Dec 22, 2022)

That might be a bit optimistic; seems doubtful that Putin + team would get into talks on that background.

EDIT: Putin commented ...

Putin says Russia wants end to war in Ukraine
^{— Mark Trevelyan, Peter Graff, Frances Kerry · Reuters · Dec 22, 2022}

Our goal is not to spin the flywheel of military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war. We will strive for an end to this, and the sooner the better, of course. I have said many times: the intensification of hostilities leads to unjustified losses. All armed conflicts end one way or another with some kind of negotiations on the diplomatic track. Sooner or later, any parties in a state of conflict sit down and make an agreement. The sooner this realization comes to those who oppose us, the better. We have never given up on this. An antidote [to the Patriot air defense system] will always be found. So those who do it are doing it in vain. It's just prolonging the conflict, that's all. — Putin

What stands out with the usual "unjustified losses", "prolonging the conflict", is that he could give the order now. Unless there are others (forcefully) expecting Russia to continue (and "crack" defense shielding), like people that ought to take up knitting. Maybe there's nervousness in the Kremlin about the Ukrainian support.

EDIT: Zakharova (peripherally) and Darchiev commented ...

Russia denounces EU for granting Bosnia candidacy status
^{— Daria Sito-Sucic, Tomasz Janowski · Reuters · Dec 23, 2022}

In the context of the current situation in the world and the West's expansionist line, it is obvious that this decision was primarily prompted by a task of the total geopolitical conquering of the region. — Maria Zakharova

Russian diplomat says NATO instructors must leave Ukraine before talks can start
^{— Edmund Klamann · Reuters · Dec 23, 2022}

No talks on security guarantees without recognition of true Ukrainian situation — diplomat
^{— TASS · Dec 23, 2022}

It will be premature to launch any serious negotiations on security guarantees in the context of Ukraine and the Euro-Atlantic region as long as weapons and funds are being pumped into [Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s] regime, as long as US and NATO servicemen/mercenaries/instructors remain in the country and unless certain practical developments on the ground are recognized. — Alexander Darchiev

Taken together: No foreigners (EU bad too by the way), no aid, a fifth is now part of Russia, period, Ukraine to be on their own (and no voice in the matter) subject to Russian plans.

Belarus restricts access to parts of region bordering Ukraine, Russia
^{— Lidia Kelly, Robert Birsel · Reuters · Dec 21, 2022}

... so, "anti-sabotage drills" starting Oct 11 in Belarus, Russian troops arriving Oct 15, Putin + Shoigu + military staff meet to discuss their "special military operation" on Dec 16, Putin visits Dec 19, Lavrov speaks on Belarusian TV (about Ukraine) Dec 19, ...

Putin says Russian army must tackle problems it has suffered in Ukraine
^{— Mark Trevelyan, Jake Cordell, Andrew Osborn, Hugh Lawson · Reuters · Dec 21, 2022}

... while subtly diverting/distancing ...

Maybe Putin is pushing Lukashenko's Belarus into the war? That'd be a significant escalation. Would it still be illegal to call it a war? Maybe Poland and the Baltics (and Ukraine) should annex Minsk because of the danger it poses. Wouldn't dragging Belarus in be seen as a weakness, though...? I guess it could be played as Belarus accusing Ukraine of whatever transgression.