(link injected by me)

Despite the all-encompassing crackdown on domestic civil society groups across Russia, curiously the Russian Imperial Movement continues to operate. — OSCE

... and Rusich ... :/ The invasion wasn't about that stuff anyway. A ruse, an excuse.

Extremists...

Secret Service Members Found To Be Part of Far-Right Extremist Group—Report
^{— Darragh Roche · Newsweek vis MSN · Dec 13, 2022}

2018 Chemnitz protests
^{— Wikipedia · ongoing}

Some reemergence lately...

White Crusade: How to Prevent Right-Wing Extremists from Exploiting the Internet (pdf)
^{— Christina Schori Liang, John Cross · GCSP · Jul 2020}

Anyway, warring breeds hate. I'm expecting some of that among Ukrainians.

:/

Meanwhile, Dnipro, Ukraine, Ukrainian soldier sips coffee amid firefight (52s). Certainly, coffee is a requirement in any civilized society, but... :D

The mercs are on the move they say.

US believes Wagner mercenary group is expanding influence and took delivery of North Korean arms
^{— Kevin Liptak · CNN · Dec 22, 2022}

In certain instances, Russian military officials are actually subordinate to Wagner’s command. It’s pretty apparent to us that Wagner is emerging as a rival power center to the Russian military and other Russian ministries. [...] It seems as though Mr. Prigozhin is willing to just throw Russian bodies into the meat grinder in Bakhmut. In fact, about 1,000 Wagner fighters have been killed in the fighting in just recent weeks, and we believe that 90% of those 1,000 fighters were, in fact, convicts. [...] It’s all about how good he looks to Mr. Putin, and how well he’s regarded at the Kremlin. In fact, we would go so far as to say that his influence is expanding. — John Kirby

Everyone knows that it’s been a long time since North Korea has supplied weapons to the Russian Federation. And no other such attempts have even been made. Therefore, these arms deliveries from the DPRK are nothing more than gossip and speculation. — Yevgeny Prigozhin

Allegedly, prisoners with "serious medical conditions" are fair game, and Navalny of all people.

Navalny: mercenary boss visited his jail to recruit for Ukraine war
^{— Alex Richardson · Reuters · Dec 21, 2022}

No one can deprive a person of the right to defend his motherland, his mother and his family by all available means. — Yevgeny Prigozhin

The foundations of law are being destroyed in Russia for the sake of a future defeat in a shameful war. — Alexei Navalny

With recruiting from state prisons, granting pardons, whatever, those groups (Wagner, Rusich, ...) are already plugged into the system. But how much of a difference are they making? Can they become a political force in Russia?

I guess talks are looking unlikely by either side at the moment.

Kremlin says no chance of Ukraine talks as Zelenskiy travels to Washington ^{(via jpost, alarabiya)
— Reuters · Dec 21, 2022}

Didn't really seem like there was much chance earlier, either.

The Ukrainian side needs to take into account the realities that have developed during this time. And these realities indicate that new subjects have appeared in the Russian Federation. They appeared as a result of referendums that took place in these territories. Without taking these new realities into account, no kind of progress is possible. — Dmitry Peskov (Dec 13, 2022)

Crimea Donetsk Kherson Luhansk Zaporizhzhia constitute something in the range of a quarter of Ukraine, where Russia occupies a bit less at the moment, a sizeable part of Ukraine.

Any takeaways from Zelenskyy's visit to the US, apart from PR I mean?
(At least it's good to see that disagreement is open/unblocked (unlike ...), e.g. Gaetz, Boebert, though I'll have to admit finding it strange why anyone would vote for Boebert.)

Ukraine welcomes 'transparency' from GOP scrutiny of war aid, ambassador says
^{— ABC News via MSN · Dec 18, 2022}

... The Ukrainians did prepare a bit.

One lever is that if Russia meets certain demands of the international community, such as withdrawing from the areas occupied since the beginning of the war, the sanctions imposed as a result can be suspended. We have to increase the diplomatic pressure so that exactly that happens. — Martin Schirdewan (Dec 22, 2022)

That might be a bit optimistic; seems doubtful that Putin + team would get into talks on that background.

EDIT: Putin commented ...

Putin says Russia wants end to war in Ukraine
^{— Mark Trevelyan, Peter Graff, Frances Kerry · Reuters · Dec 22, 2022}

Our goal is not to spin the flywheel of military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war. We will strive for an end to this, and the sooner the better, of course. I have said many times: the intensification of hostilities leads to unjustified losses. All armed conflicts end one way or another with some kind of negotiations on the diplomatic track. Sooner or later, any parties in a state of conflict sit down and make an agreement. The sooner this realization comes to those who oppose us, the better. We have never given up on this. An antidote [to the Patriot air defense system] will always be found. So those who do it are doing it in vain. It's just prolonging the conflict, that's all. — Putin

What stands out with the usual "unjustified losses", "prolonging the conflict", is that he could give the order now. Unless there are others (forcefully) expecting Russia to continue (and "crack" defense shielding), like people that ought to take up knitting. Maybe there's nervousness in the Kremlin about the Ukrainian support.

EDIT: Zakharova (peripherally) and Darchiev commented ...

Russia denounces EU for granting Bosnia candidacy status
^{— Daria Sito-Sucic, Tomasz Janowski · Reuters · Dec 23, 2022}

In the context of the current situation in the world and the West's expansionist line, it is obvious that this decision was primarily prompted by a task of the total geopolitical conquering of the region. — Maria Zakharova

Russian diplomat says NATO instructors must leave Ukraine before talks can start
^{— Edmund Klamann · Reuters · Dec 23, 2022}

No talks on security guarantees without recognition of true Ukrainian situation — diplomat
^{— TASS · Dec 23, 2022}

It will be premature to launch any serious negotiations on security guarantees in the context of Ukraine and the Euro-Atlantic region as long as weapons and funds are being pumped into [Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s] regime, as long as US and NATO servicemen/mercenaries/instructors remain in the country and unless certain practical developments on the ground are recognized. — Alexander Darchiev

Taken together: No foreigners (EU bad too by the way), no aid, a fifth is now part of Russia, period, Ukraine to be on their own (and no voice in the matter) subject to Russian plans.

Belarus restricts access to parts of region bordering Ukraine, Russia
^{— Lidia Kelly, Robert Birsel · Reuters · Dec 21, 2022}

... so, "anti-sabotage drills" starting Oct 11 in Belarus, Russian troops arriving Oct 15, Putin + Shoigu + military staff meet to discuss their "special military operation" on Dec 16, Putin visits Dec 19, Lavrov speaks on Belarusian TV (about Ukraine) Dec 19, ...

Putin says Russian army must tackle problems it has suffered in Ukraine
^{— Mark Trevelyan, Jake Cordell, Andrew Osborn, Hugh Lawson · Reuters · Dec 21, 2022}

... while subtly diverting/distancing ...

Maybe Putin is pushing Lukashenko's Belarus into the war? That'd be a significant escalation. Would it still be illegal to call it a war? Maybe Poland and the Baltics (and Ukraine) should annex Minsk because of the danger it poses. Wouldn't dragging Belarus in be seen as a weakness, though...? I guess it could be played as Belarus accusing Ukraine of whatever transgression.

And again the hubris of Ukrainians not having any role here... :smirk: — ssu

:up:

The murderer accusing his victims of a "lack of concern". :vomit: — Olivier5

:up:

Für Russland ist Selenskyj größenwahnsinnig: „Er sprudelt nur vor Ideen“ ^{(english via google translate)
— ZLIVE-NEWS · Dec 20, 2022}

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attacked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for his "lack of understanding of the seriousness of the moment and lack of concern for his people".

I don't personally think Lavrov is delusional, but this doesn't look promising. I suppose, if we're talking propaganda, working the Belarusians, then it does make some sense.

, well, those Azov folks befriended the Israelis, no one detained. I suspect they enjoy Israel's warmer clime for their visit.

Meanwhile in Germany:

German court convicts 97-year-old ex-secretary at Nazi camp
^{— Geir Moulson · AP News · Dec 20, 2022}

Did she make a run for it, in 2021, in her 90s? :grin: Anyway, a young peripheral at the time (and with her current age), she was given a mild sentence, no living in fear of harsh repercussions.

And, on the subject of Nazis, they simply don't bother to address the main stream media (bbc, vice, guardian, reuters) reporting on these organisations before this year, don't even try to explain where these Nazi's supposedly disappeared to, the mere fact that only the "extreme right" or the "extreme left" needs to be linked to making making the same point, and everything can be dismissed. — boethius

As far as the invasion goes, the concern (at least that I've commented on lately) is what Kyiv possibly could have done, is doing, to be deemed a Nazi rule — a Nazi rule is what the Putinistas have claimed, their public rationale, and it's bunk. I imagine Ukrainian Nazis are doing whatever such extremists do. Going by the report, those Azov folks ain't it (unless Mossad screwed up royally).

Seems a bit surprising with the Nazi thing an'all ...

Ukraine's Azov Regiment visits Israel: 'Mariupol is our Masada'
^{— Tzvi Joffre · The Jerusalem Post · Dec 20, 2022}

A ruse, an excuse.
Will the Putinistas keep it up?

Giles opines:

Opinion: Russia has shouted about escalation long enough
^{— Keir Giles · CNN · Dec 20, 2022}

There are effective NASAMS, however expensive, some have been delivered, more planned (the Netherlands, Norway, the UK, the US).
Of course, when Russia generously sprays missiles throughout, there will be damage; seems clear enough that it's an attempt to bomb/force/intimidate the Ukrainians into submission.
Where these weapons would mostly be for defense (shield, not an escalation), they can (and will likely) also be used for attacks, though, whatever the Russian response might be, if any in particular.

, the UK stopped being a global (colonial) power, the US retreated from Vietnam, the USSR pulled out of Afghanistan, ... I'm sure there have been bruised egos. Should Ukraine be intact sometime in the foreseeable future, Russia will continue on without, perhaps even a bit improved, maybe along the lines of what suggested. Hardly impossible or unheard of.

Some parallel developments, FYI

Council adopts decision not to accept Russian documents issued in Ukraine and Georgia
^{— European Council · Dec 8, 2022}

The Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim A.A. Khan KC, announces conclusion of the investigation phase in the Situation in Georgia
<sup>— Karim Ahmad Khan · International Criminal Court · Dec 16, 2022

• Russo-Georgian War (Wikipedia)
• Responsibility for the Russo-Georgian War (Wikipedia)</sup>

A couple of scattered, peripherally related news items ...

Russia sends St. Petersburg riot police to Mariupol to stop new protests
^{— Daniel Stewart · News 360 · Dec 16, 2022}

Someone, quick, the coast is clear, incite some bigtime protests in St Petersburg. :up: :grin:

Israeli-tied Moldovan TV channels halt Russia-Ukraine war reporting
^{— Reuters via The Jerusalem Post · Dec 17, 2022}

Ilan Shor, "the young one", is done with corruption/subversion in Moldova I guess.

Russia rejects Zelenskiy call for troop pullout, saying Ukraine must accept 'realities'
^{— Mark Trevelyan, Guy Faulconbridge · Reuters · Dec 13, 2022}

The Ukrainian side needs to take into account the realities that have developed during this time. And these realities indicate that new subjects have appeared in the Russian Federation. They appeared as a result of referendums that took place in these territories. Without taking these new realities into account, no kind of progress is possible. — Peskov

The sham annexations may have to break, one way or other.
If that causes collisions in Moscow, then so be it; if they don't break, then so be it as well.
I guess it's illegal to criticize in Russia; they can break, however. ^{(2014, 2022)}

Isn't that one of those unanswerable questions? If by "God" is meant "know-it-all" and such? :) Until omniscient, it's not really possible to answer.

Other than that (2m:22s)...

:D

Ukrainian man reunited with his rabbit after Russia destroyed his house
^{— Josh Milton · Metro News · Dec 14, 2022}

Gave me a chuckle

Putin says Russia may be fighting in Ukraine for a long time
^{— Mark Trevelyan · Reuters · Dec 7, 2022}

They consider Russia a second-class country that has no right to exist. This is the whole problem, the whole trouble. — Putin

, I guess I could repeat, though the thread is rife with repeats already. It so happens that some of the bolder Kremlin'ers say that Washington set up a coup and installed a Nazi junta in Kyiv, other of those folk say Russia need to liberate Ukraine from a Nazi regime. Sure, it's propaganda (good point :up: :wink:), because it's false, yet there you have their justification, what government officials and TV broadcast. (Already posted whatever sources, quotes, speeches, commentaries, propaganda, situation reports on the ground, comparisons, whatever.) The implication is that their supposed justification was a ruse, an excuse, plus there are additional reasons for this implication, outside of their propaganda — as (also) mentioned, you may inspect their actions. Hence the point, a ruse, an excuse. On the other hand, if you wish to justify what the Kremlin'ers claim, then you'll have to show the supposed Ukrainian Nazi regime (from memory, you ignored/declined that prior), that it's not propaganda after all. While rounding up what characterizes Nazi rule, I noticed some indicators that...nevermind, you'll just designate it all propaganda (again). :D

Zelenskiy shuts court, says Ukraine can fight graft, Russia at same time
^{— Dan Peleschuk · Reuters · Dec 13, 2022}

This story has drawn to a close. But the story of reforms continues – it continues, even in the time of such a war. — Zelenskyy

Ukraine's parliament enacts reform laws recommended by EU - Speaker
^{— The Jerusalem Post · Dec 14, 2022}

Such likes ↑ at least, look positive.

While reading ...

Exclusive: The global supply trail that leads to Russia’s killer drones (via MSN)
^{— Stephen Grey, Maurice Tamman, Maria Zholobova · Reuters · Dec 15, 2022}

I was vaguely reminded of ...

Stop funding Russia’s nuclear weapons
^{— Henry Sokolski; The Hill; Nov 13, 2022} — Nov 14, 2022

Florida, Hong Kong, in addition to US/EU funds going to Rosatom, ..., the plot thickens.

, if you think something's off then hit the report button/link. It's a small flag at the bottom of posts (hover → •••).

It's about the Ukraine crisis, not just your own take, though that's cool too, despite the occasional curious tunnel vision.
Some reports might suggest getting the diplomats scrambling immediately, others suggest some un/predictability factor of the Kremlin, other reports still may suggest whatever other things. Without data, there isn't anything to chat (or reason) about.
You keep ignoring that Putin, Pavlov, Solovyov, Patrushev, Medvedev, Chernyshov, with Peskov, Matviyenko, and others in tow, speak of liberating Ukraine from a Nazi regime (previous posts, all over actually) — a ruse, an excuse — fail. For that matter, it's pretty clear that Kremlin has no particular concern for the Ukrainians (also prior posts).
Anyway, I suppose we could designate it all propaganda, though government officials and public TV characters are influential enough, more so with the oppression in place and enforced.

I am happy you agree that Nazi's are indeed a problem — boethius

I'm glad too. Have you seen (indications of) Nazism here...? Fascism racism ... for that matter? Anyone belonging in Tzeentch's fiery pit?

We could also keep one line of the chit-chat purely on the military tactics, which would exclude speculation about ulterior motives and such.

Medvedev of the Russian Security Council:

Pseudo-Ukrainian rabid mongrels with Russian surnames, choking on their toxic saliva, declare that their enemy is located within the borders of Russia, from the West to Vladivostok. Rabies has no cure.
It is much more difficult for us - our enemy has dug in not only in the Kyiv province of our native Little Russia. It's in Europe, North America, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and a whole host of other contemporary Nazi-sworn places.
Therefore, we are increasing the production of the most powerful means of destruction. Including those based on new principles. — Dmitry Medvedev · Dec 11, 2022

Impressive

Photographers Kostyantyn Liberov and Vlada Liberova published a photo of the "graveyard" of shells that Russia fired at Kharkiv this year.
^{— Reserve Petty Officer · Dec 4, 2022}

Inside Bakhmut: The strange and senseless death trap draining Ukraine's tired army
^{— Justin Yau, Ben Farmer · The Telegraph · Dec 9, 2022}

More or less Prigozhin's and Kadyrov's free playground ...

wave of assaults carried out by Russian mercenaries and poorly-equipped reservists

Grotesque.

I'd suggest footage be broadcast all over Russia, well all over really, without propagandist editing that is.

EDITORIAL: The high cost of peace at any price
^{— Toronto Sun · Dec 9, 2022}

The editorial doesn't really make a whole lot of points, just the usual (which is not a dismissal of them).
Allowing the invaders to get away with it is too close to being complicit.
They'll learn from success, others (autocrats, despots, tyrants, dictators, whatever) will take note, and thus we may end up putting it off to our children (or their children).
It's not new and not that hard to understand; we ought to learn from history.
^{(Plato Tacitus Burke Mill Niemöller Wiesel)}
But, in this case, it's for the Ukrainians to decide, their homes (whatever is left of them), their self-governance, are on the line.

By Covid? — Tzeentch

By "The fiery pit" (and whatever else you have in store for people).

Lies and Vladimir Putin's political culture: "Intelligence Matters"
^{— Michael Morell, Andrew Weiss, Paulina Smolinski · CBS News · Dec 7, 2022}

Well, the (sociopathic) opportunism über alles is something Putin shares with der Führer.

Russia's Putin Vows More Strikes On Ukraine Energy Infrastructure
^{— Via NDTV · Dec 8, 2022}

I guess the Ukrainians aren't really allowed to try throwing the invaders out? Such goes Putin's rhetorical move. Not the best excuse. Destruction continues.

Slovakia compares negotiating peace with Russia to the dialogues with Hitler that led to WWII
^{— Daniel Stewart · News360 · Dec 8, 2022}

, Macron is "Absolute scum", belonging in "The fiery pit"? :D I guess, by your take, humans best go extinct, or at least be markedly decimated. Not quite a realistic outlook. Or maybe just another hyperbole.

He threatened the people of France for exercising their human right to bodily autonomy. "Dictator" is being kind. Absolute scum of the Earth, better? The fiery pit is too good for that man. — Tzeentch

Surely you jest.

Volodymyr Zelensky named TIME's Person of the Year 2022

2022 was year the horror of war returned to Europe (minor warning: graphic)
^{— Jill Lawless · AP News · Dec 8, 2022}

, bit trigger happy there?
I'd question McKitrick's take on the matter, hence asking.

Not quite sure what to make of this...

Opinion: The Parliamentary Budget Officer just debunked climate alarmism
^{— Ross McKitrick · Financial Post · Dec 7, 2022}

Either way...
Don't panic :up:
Get your (our) act together :up:

Ukraine war shows Europe too reliant on U.S., Finland PM says ^{(via Yahoo)
— Essi Lehto, Terje Solsvik, Nick Macfie · Reuters · Dec 2, 2022}

Finland’s prime minister acknowledges that «Europe is not strong enough».
^{— Daniel Stewart · News360 · Dec 2, 2022}

Well, there you have it.

The EU is riddled with babbling bureaucracy thumb-twiddling impotence sitting-on-hands — not going to cut it. For that matter, there's a fair amount of EU dislike within the EU already. The EU isn't about defense anyway.

A Russian autocrat isn't going to pay much attention to that, but surely might try to fuel it. And facing an individual European country won't faze them much either. Despots may just grab what they want, and roll over what they don't.

A cohesive European defense, on the other hand, preferably including the UK and Ukraine :wink:, might do it. The resources exist, at least.

Until then, NATO it is. And NATO, apparently, scares Putin.

, others have suggested that it goes both ways.

:up: Address the point they brought up (plus public awareness) — Dec 3, 2022

Macron’s idea of ‘security guarantees’ to Russia faces backlash
^{— Alexandra Brzozowski · EURACTIV · Dec 5, 2022}

French president Macron criticized for suggesting ’security guarantees’ for Russia
^{— Reuters via Al Arabiya · Dec 5, 2022}

Anyway, opening some talks would be :up:

State TV, Russia:

Putin Cronies Resort to Begging on Live TV Over War Failures
^{— Julia Davis · The Daily Beast · Dec 4, 2022}

I am amazed by our people—and I unfortunately know many of them—including those in very high circles, who are afraid of this and are scared to call things by their proper names because of what people over there may think. We could spit on what they think over there! People who are afraid of the Hague—listen, you should be afraid to lose, to be humiliated and be afraid to betray your people. Let me tell you that if we manage to lose, the Hague—whether real or hypothetical—will come even for a street cleaner who is sweeping the cobblestones behind the Kremlin. — Simonyan

There won’t be any Hague if this happens, there won’t be anything at all. The whole world will be reduced to ashes. — Solovyov

God forbid, we can’t allow it and don’t even say it out loud but suppose that suddenly something happens and our country is unable to achieve victory: then we should proceed from the premise that everyone with no exception will be held accountable—whether they are located within the Russian Federation or abroad. Those abroad will most likely be immediately arrested. Whether he is a collaborator of Putin’s regime or was just passing by, it doesn’t matter. All of us will be considered guilty. What’s at stake is not only the existence of the country, but also the carefree existence of every citizen of the Russian Federation—our future is on the line. In order to avoid the Hague tribunals, the initiation of criminal cases, compensation, reparations—in order to avoid all this, we need a total intensification of military actions, we have to squeeze and pressure them so much that they approach us about a truce or a peace process… Otherwise, they will insist on capitulation. — Skabeyeva

How can we sleep while knowing that we aren’t sharing and aren’t participating? Rich people should get a hold of themselves and remember that we can’t continue living the way we’ve been living since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. We have to restore social equality. I am calling on you, citizens: you have to share! Raise the taxes on the rich and the well-to-do people. What is there to be afraid of? Raise the taxes! — Simonyan

Good grief. Promoting paranoia to the masses? It's Ukraine that's on fire. Muscovite street cleaners aren't in the line of fire.

Larger Wheat Harvest in Ukraine Than Expected
^{— NASA · Dec 4, 2022}

However, Russia will likely reap the benefit of a significant portion of the close to 27-million-ton wheat crop, said Skakun. The analysis showed that 5.8 million tons of wheat was harvested from areas that were not under Ukrainian control. That represents a loss of at least $1 billion, Abbassian noted.

Looting, after a fashion?

Rebuilding Ukraine After Russian Invasion Will Cost $500-600 Billion, Says World Bank VP
^{— RFE/RL · Dec 4, 2022}

Costly.

Putin takes war to new level of 'barbarism,' U.S. diplomat says
^{— Tom Balmforth · Reuters · Dec 3, 2022}

Diplomacy is obviously everyone's objective but you have to have a willing partner. And it's very clear, whether it's the energy attacks, whether it's the rhetoric out of the Kremlin and the general attitude, that Putin is not sincere or ready for that. Putin has taken this war to a new level of barbarism, taking it into every single Ukrainian home as he tries to turn off the lights and the water and achieve what he couldn't on the battlefield. — Nuland

It is not for Nuland to teach the world - only the United States and NATO combined destroyed more energy networks than the United States destroyed by itself. — Zakharova

But...then that's an admission...? :o Bad rhetorical tactic, ma'am.
^{(two wrongs don't make a right, whataboutism, diversion)}

Notice how neatly this replays a particular narrative (while ignoring a few things of relevance) — with evil NATO, Nazis, etc, rousing anger — dancing (and yelling) to the tune of a particular dish of propaganda:

The USA Caused the War in Ukraine, and Only the USA Can End It
^{— Bryan Davies · CODEPINK · Nov 24, 2022}

Some have (and perhaps will) lap such colorific bias up without further ado. It's not that it's all plain wrong, more that it ignores too much, skips past a few things of relevance, expresses too much preconception, ending up with a story of wholesale blame-switchery. Had that "PINK TANK ~ BLOG" been posted a good while back, then it could perhaps have been said to provide a perspective surely worthwhile of consideration, but not any longer. At least they got one thing more or less right, in principle (if only Putin + team had taken that to heart):

NO WAR

Anyone can sympathize. And then get their feet back on the ground.

Macron says new security architecture should give guarantees for Russia
^{— Geert De Clercq, William Maclean · Reuters · Dec 3, 2022}

This means that one of the essential points we must address - as President Putin has always said - is the fear that NATO comes right up to its doors, and the deployment of weapons that could threaten Russia. That topic will be part of the topics for peace, so we need to prepare what we are ready to do, how we protect our allies and member states, and how to give guarantees to Russia the day it returns to the negotiating table. — Macron

:up: Address the point they brought up (plus public awareness)

(, I didn't really mean to argue, more like add some stuff :up:)

, using nuclear weapons would be bad for Russia as well as for others. Unless you think Putin doesn't care? The doctrine (if you want to call it that), is the mutually assured destruction thing. That's not quite the case here. No one has threatened with marching on Moscow ‡, let alone spraying nukes over Russia. It's the other way around, Putin's Russia has proven a real, present threat to Ukraine. Even if Putin ordered the (tactical) nukes in, I wouldn't expect a straight escalation to world war. NATO and others are more tempered than so. But Russia would definitely get attention, eyes-on, not in a positive way. This has been suggested both by Washington and Beijing, albeit in the usual political fashion.

, it's just that those formal annexations have become but a ritual, a performance to appease certain sensibilities. :/ Fake, a sham, an imposition. Just about everyone already knows, but that might not work on some mindsets, and hence the humbug sticks around.

When it comes to talks, which I'd think generally is seen as a positive thing, it seems that various parties say they're ready, serious, good to go, just say the word — except, only if what they bring to the table is already accepted. And so, no talks. Wouldn't be talks anyway, would be declarations.

As an aside, per se I'm not quite convinced that Crimea is as secured (Russian) as some. I guess it depends on Ukrainian support and such. Also, rumors on the street will have it that bomb shelters are being prepared in Moscow, despite no indication they'd have to be used. I suppose, if they want to waste resources (instead of using them for their "Ukraine project")...?

‡ Except Danilov perhaps, depending? Some have argued for political change, like doing away with the oppression, autocracy, shamming, rigging, but that's not the same.

These are our people — Putin

Except for the "Nazis" and those that don't want to be subjects... :D (the evil uncle that nieces and nephews stay away from comes to mind)

Putin Ally Blames Crisis on Rise of Black U.S. Music Stars He Calls ‘Descendants of African American Slaves’
^{— Allison Quinn · The Daily Beast · Dec 1, 2022}

Oleksiy Danilov opines:

Ukraine calls for «destruction» of Russia to prevent it from pursuing its colonial aims
^{— Daniel Stewart · News360 · Dec 1, 2022}

Not really helping. (Regardless of how in/accurate it is.) It'll just give reason to fear, and fuel the zealots. The fact remains that Putin's Russia invaded, is waging war, destroying, etc.

Hypothesis (just to write it out explicitly):

Putin + team want Crimea, at least. A secured Donbas would sort of help with connecting Russia and Crimea (Kerch is a bit skimpy). All of Ukraine would be :up:, and would connect Russia and Transnistria. Farms, resources, ..., go beyond geo/military gain. Stated/official reasons, rhetoric, various efforts, propaganda, etc, are means to that end.

Kyiv wants the invaders to leave and not come back. That includes the interference/insurgence in Donbas. (And quit the destruction.)

↑ consistent with observations, not overly complex/speculative, plausible

NATO renews membership vow to Ukraine, pledges arms and aid
^{— Stephen McGrath, Lorne Cook, Ellen Knickmeyer · AP News · Nov 29, 2022}

NATO's door is open. Russia does not have a veto. — Stoltenberg

If, as Stoltenberg hinted, NATO supplies the Kyiv fanatics with Patriot complexes along with NATO personnel, they will immediately become a legitimate target of our armed forces. I hope the Atlantic impotents understand this. — Medvedev

Zelenskiy Invites Musk to Visit Ukraine in Response to His Talk of Peace Deal
^{— Daniel Flatley · Bloomberg · Nov 30, 2022}

Putin + team requires/demands (Nov 11, 2022) ≈

^{• legal guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, signed ✓ and set in stone in Ukraine's constitution
• that Ukraine (the world?) recognize independence of Donetsk + Luhansk
• that Ukraine (the world?) recognize Crimea as part of Russia
• (Ukrainian surrender, demilitarization, deNazification has been mentioned a few times)
• (Moscow is not to be attacked :grin:)}

The former could likely be worked out without that much difficulty if Russia was to give a similar guarantee to leave Ukraine alone, what NATO membership would help with in the first place. The two latter more or less constitute a non-licet land grab (besides, Donetsk + Luhansk wouldn't be independent but more or less under Moscow control, a signature move of theirs).

Kyiv requires/demands (Nov 23, 2022) ≈

^{• apart from neutrality / some sort of UN oversight perhaps, Ukraine otherwise intact, free, sovereign, self-governing
• Russian military personnel in Ukraine to go home, and no Russian insurgency or other interference
• Ukrainians taken to Russia to be recorded and (allowed) to return home, first and foremost children and prisoners
• guarantees to be signed ✓ for all to see
• (compensation for destruction or similar has come up)}

Other items that have come up ≈

^{• investigation into war crimes, prosecution of war criminals
• (has Kherson + Zaporizhia been added to Donetsk + Luhansk?)}

Some requirements/demands are incompatible. Others could be pursued now. As far as I can tell, all of the items would have to be brought to the table, whether they'll be rejected, considered, approved or not. Otherwise it's not really genuine.

National state TV, Russia

Here is what one man wrote [to] me, someone by the name of Victor Rozumovsky: “Maybe it’s time to stop presenting lies as the truth. Stop deceiving people. Rational thinking people no longer believe any of this.” You know what Victor? If you are in Russia, we are going to find you. We will find out everything about you. You won’t know a moment’s peace. — Vladimir Solovyov

:D

Zelenska (visiting the UK), von der Leyen (fronting the EU), and UN are on the same page regarding war crimes ...

Zelensky’s wife given standing ovation by MPs while urging UK to be ‘leader’
^{— Liam Coleman · Metro News · Nov 29, 2022}

EU seeks tribunal to probe possible Russian war crimes in Ukraine
^{— Bart Meijer, Andrew Heavens · Reuters · Nov 30, 2022}

It's more doubtful what they can effectively do, though.
What could they do?
(Limit Putin's vacation spots some?)