Comments

  • Ukraine Crisis
    Rumors on the street will have it that Melitopol is sort of being turned into a (Russian) military base. I suppose there is a strategic importance here.

    Russia launches heavy air strikes across Ukraine as G20 leaders meet
    — Wilhelmine Preussen; POLITICO; Nov 15, 2022

    On and on they go, bombing destroying ... Apparently, they're not expecting to pay repairs. I'd hold them to that, though. The latest conditions from the Ukrainians ( :up:, Nov 15, 2022) don't mention that, not directly anyway.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    :up:

    Still, the Chinese leader, who before the war referred to Putin as his best friend, notably stopped short of asking Russia to withdraw, a key demand for Ukraine and its Western backers.China’s Xi warns Putin not to use nuclear arms in Ukraine · Stuart Lau · POLITICO · Nov 4, 2022

    I'm guessing the Taiwan situation plays a role.

    We cannot afford any further escalationLi Keqiang
    We have agreed that threatening nuclear attacks is irresponsible and dangerous. I have told President Xi the importance for China to exert its influence on Russia.Olaf Scholz

    Yaay :up:
  • Ukraine Crisis
    OK, enough mockery :D At least they have humor

    Nov 10, 2022

    Nov 12, 2022

    Nov 13, 2022
  • Ukraine Crisis
    I'm afraid I just don't understand what you're saying here at all.Isaac

    Too bad. Maybe I should mention that action is subsequent to figuring things out? Usually anyway. (I don't think Putin is manning the artillery in Ukraine these days. Sleepwalkers aren't part of the considerations.)

    I'm also not claiming that countries don't exist. I'm claiming they don't have a right to exist.Isaac

    Still not helpful. :D

    It's transparent and tiresome.Isaac

    All over the place here, "Flatten Moscow", ditching countries, rhetorical exercises, ...

    Anyway, am I then to understand that the situation with the children, by your take, is irrelevant, does not figure in any limitation wherejorndoe
    The limits are between what to tolerate and not to tolerate, what they may get away with and not get away withjorndoe
    ?jorndoe
    the situation with the children has come up among peace criteria and whatnotjorndoe
    That would be a response to my comment.jorndoe

    Still wondering if you're expecting everyone to agree (let alone Putin and the Ukrainians). Sometimes people resort to democracy.

    Speaking of flattening, crazies are everywhere (Nov 12, 2022) (again):


    Maybe they're just doing their thing for the heck of it.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    I can't answer that question because you've not answered my request for clarity on it. 'Tolerate' how?Isaac

    Say, is it acceptable to return the children? :up: Is refusal acceptable? :down: I don't see any good reason that the Ukrainians would tolerate that the Russian government and the pseudo-parents insist on kidnapping.

    the situation with the children has come up among peace criteria and whatnotjorndoe

    And so refusal might be a peace blocker, which really would be too bad. For that matter, is there a sufficient reason that anyone would let them get away with it? Already illegal in most places (for a reason). Could repeat your choice of words: "Disgusting".

    Anyway, am I then to understand that the situation with the children, by your take, is irrelevant, does not figure in any limitation wherejorndoe
    The limits are between what to tolerate and not to tolerate, what they may get away with and not get away withjorndoe
    ?jorndoe
    That would be a response to my comment.jorndoe

    I'm guessing most would be behind the Ukrainians here. And that would set out a limit, thereby answering my comment. Different from one you'd put forth? If this is descending into a rhetorical exercise, then I'm not all that interested, though there isn't a sub-forum for that.

    If peace negotiations have to agree to the legitimacy of the current political map in order to take place, then how are border changes ever legitimised?Isaac

    In whichever way? Countries are presently a political reality. As mentioned, you may deny that reality, that just isn't very helpful. Do you think you can convince the Russians and Ukrainians with such a side track? Besides, expecting agreement in all things is a bit naïve.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    It's not made so simply by you saying it.Isaac
    You (nor anyone else on this thread) have given absolutely no reasons why Russia would accept any terms at all, let alone the undoing of this 'repatriation' they've apparently just done.Isaac
    the situation with the children has come up among peace criteria and whatnotjorndoe

    ↑ A blocker, even if reasonable or to be expected? A recipe for no peace; probably more of those.

    I'm saying "wait for evidence" is the response to your question.Isaac

    And yet

    The answer would be the same.Isaac

    Anyway, am I then to understand that the situation with the children, by your take, is irrelevant, does not figure in any limitation where

    The limits are between what to tolerate and not to tolerate, what they may get away with and not get away withjorndoe

    ?

    That would be a response to my comment.

    Acknowledgement of the existence of spurious entities such as 'states' is not a requirement for peaceIsaac

    You can deny them all you like (maybe even come up with a better world without them of some sort), yet that's our present world. Simply dismissing them isn't helpful here. (Besides, you're starting to read like @NOS4A2. :wink:)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Stop funding Russia’s nuclear weapons
    — Henry Sokolski; The Hill; Nov 13, 2022

    :D Like a catch-22 with Rosatom sort of sitting comfortably in the middle. A good time to go green? (OK, with current tech that won't do, I think.) Switch to other import, gradually at least? Where will the produce end up if the imports are canceled? Either way, it seems capitalism and slowness to change have made the decisions for now.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    James Dubik opines:

    End the Ukraine war well
    — The Hill; Nov 13, 2022

    ↑ some of the same as you,
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , the situation with the children has come up among peace criteria and whatnot. Why wouldn't it? It's not idle ad hoc speculation here, in this thread. What you call context is indeed downplay/diversion. dismisses it as propaganda (and has done the same before). As an aside, according to Alina Rohach (Sep 12, 2022), the Russian machinery is being oiled with "legislation that will allow the adoption of Ukrainian children using a simplified procedure". In order to respond to my comment (limit'ry), you don't have to wait for evidence; presumably your response wouldn't change.

    Maybe a peace criterion could be a guarantee to return all such children otherwise unharmed no later than a month after a cease-fire? (Just tossing something out there.) Easily contrasted by auto-enrollment in organized Russian governmental machinery...
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , FYI, this thread is about the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    (Besides, the rest of the world matters too, and that does not mean Ukraine doesn't.)

    I take it then that you downplay that Ukrainian situation, "collateral damage accepted", nothing further to see here? Is that in/correct? To return to my comment, that would indeed be one response setting out a limit (or absence thereof perhaps).
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Bomb them too?Isaac

    You're going into ramble mode.

    Are the child abductions acceptable collateral damage, and so there's nothing further to be done here? (To show an extreme limit, I'm guessing no one would nuke Moscow due to this.)jorndoe

    Then I'm afraid the point you're making remains opaque.Isaac

    My point? I asked questions.

    You folk are reading extras into my comments here.jorndoe

    Try again.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , I updated the comment, but you were quick to type...a lot. Don't know if you want to update accordingly. :)

    Again, propaganda. Collateral damage to what NATO actions?boethius

    What propaganda? It's not about NATO in particular.

    seem to be implying that we're holding back some sanction we have availableIsaac

    I'm not in particular.

    What is this punishment you think we've been holding in reserveIsaac

    Punishment is your word. The parents/peers want their children back. Wouldn't you? If that's impossible, then so be it, I guess.

    You folk are reading extras into my comments here.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , OK, let me just pause you there for a moment (you're repeating).

    In case of good old-fashioned :death: genocide in Ukraine at the hands of the invaders, would deployment of NATO/Polish/US/Romainian troops directly in Ukraine be warranted? Would doing so be unacceptable due to a perceived threat of ☢ world war 3?

    In the current situation, are sanctions warranted, but Ukrainian support should be withdrawn towards forcing a peace deal where, say, Crimea and Donbas become parts of Russia, and that's then the accepted goal? Except, if the invaders were to (want to) absorb additional regions, would additional actions then be the way to go?

    Are the child abductions acceptable collateral damage, and so there's nothing further to be done here? (To show an extreme limit, I'm guessing no one would nuke Moscow due to this.)

    Those are examples you might say are warranted or acceptable, or where something else should be done (or not done). You'd (probably) want to add justification as you see them, but those are examples of limits. Where are they?

    The UN has made a principled statement about what's un/acceptable by vote, but has limited mandate of action:

    Resolution ES‑11/2 reaffirmed the UN's former commitments and obligations under its Charter, and reiterated its demand that Russia withdraw from Ukraine's recognized sovereign territory; it also deplored, expressed grave concern over and condemned attacks on civilian populations and infrastructure. Fourteen principles were agreed.United Nations General Assembly Resolution ES-11/2
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Why would there be limits in evaluating consequences?boethius

    Hmm? I'm not sure you read my comments right.

    The limits are between what to tolerate and not to tolerate, what they may get away with and not get away with, and this may be informed by perceived consequences of doing this-or-that or not doing anything. Gave some examples (not exhaustive).

    I'm not sure if would run with doing nothing (at all?) due to a perceived threat of ☢ world war 3. If so, then that would be one example of a limit. I'm sure others would entertain other limits.

    So, that's what limits was about. (You have any to recommend here?)

    As an aside, James Longman from ABC News posted some maps (Nov 12, 2022)...

  • Ukraine Crisis
    , so, while attempting to evaluate consequences, where would you set limits, and what to do about them? For example, what to do about the destruction, if you don't think they should get away with it?

    (Involves future conjectures and isn't quite simple. For one, you can't ignore the Ukrainians themselves, had they said "Let's shut down the government and have Moscow take over", then surely that'd be fine with most. For another, I don't think the child abductions can be swept under the rug.)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Question:

    How much should Putin + team be allowed to get away with scot-free?
    (Similarly, is there a point at which enough is enough and hands-on international intervention is warranted?)

    Assimilating and re-culturating all of Ukraine? Grabbing Crimea and Donbas? Plain old-fashioned genocide? The child abductions? Nuclear deployment? The destruction? All or none of the above? (there are a few options/limits here, these are just examples)

    Surely there are limits somewhere as to what can be tolerated, though I'm guessing it differs depending on who you ask including what the responses should be.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , I'm guessing they'll be partying the weekend over in Kherson, or some will anyway. Come Monday it'll be (back to the) hangovers.
  • What's the big mystery about time?
    Maybe time seems mysterious because we haven't come up with something simpler/satisfactory by which to explain time?

    Time (Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
    Time (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

    People sure have come up with a few ideas about time over the years (pun intended):

    • Zeno: motion is illusory
    • Aristotle, Hume: no change implies no time (an empirical perspective)
    • Kant: time and space are a priori (pre)conditions for all experience
    • McTaggart: bah, smoke and mirrors, nothing but illusion and humbug
    • Robb: time is a causal dimension of the world
    • Shoemaker: time without change is conceivable (and logically consistent)

    Whatever time may be, it seems to involve duration and simultaneity, so, a theory of time would have to account for those.

    • duration: it takes time to get to work in the morning
    • simultaneity: we get to work about the same time in the morning, as agreed prior

    Science tends to tie space and time together, at least in some respects. What about absence?

    • Suppose x is defined as not spatial, "outside of space". Then x is nowhere to be found. And x cannot have any extent, volume, area, length, or the like, not even zero-dimensional (like a mathematical singularity).
    • Suppose x is defined as atemporal, "outside of time". Then x can't be at any time. And there can be no duration involved, x cannot change, or be subject to causation, cannot interact, and would be inert and lifeless.

    Abstract Objects (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
    Abstractionism in Mathematics (Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

    In a way, objects (spatial) are to space what processes (temporal) are to time (and vice versa). Common, everyday stuff:

    • it takes time to get to work in the morning (duration)
    • work is elsewhere (distance)
    • we have our recurring phone meetings (simultaneity) as agreed prior (past)
    • we have a presentations room for visitors at work (place)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , according to the Kremlin, Ukraine is now occupying Russian territory, according to the Ukrainians, they've now taken Ukrainian territory back. Can't both be right. :)
  • A simple but difficult dilemma of evil in the world
    Man was given instruction to produce children in a sacred covenant of marriage and to live simply without extravagance. We chose (someone and enough did somewhere up the line) to overproduce, to try to become gods of this planet with machines and technology that produce all kinds of lethal and harmful things to us ie. hazardous byproducts, radiation, air contaminants, you name it, wage war on others for worldly purposes and visit places we were not meant to be (could be radioactive land, places at risk for natural disasters, etc), as well as change the way man was meant to live by social practices whose effects on society are still largely unknown (some people are on the computer or the XBOX staring at a screen for days or even weeks on end without seeing another soul- that can't be good?)Outlander

    Well, the Bible says lots of things.

    And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it: and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth. — Genesis 1:28
    And you, be ye fruitful, and multiply; bring forth abundantly in the earth, and multiply therein. — Genesis 9:7
    One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth for ever. — Ecclesiastes 1:4

    This part isn't quite right:

    Man was given instruction to [...]Outlander

    Non-Christians did and do outnumber Christians; Christians were and are outnumbered by detractors. The Biblical Yahweh somehow forgot to properly inform the majority of humanity. Instead, some were somehow informed by Dreamtime, Ahura Mazda, Shiva, etc, and some weren't. (These days, it seems commonly said that Allah informed Gabriel informed Muhammad informed ... or something.)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Creepy (also point 5 of Anders Åslund's conditions):

    Child abductions in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
    — Wikipedia

    Ukraine parents ‘want their children back’ from Russia
    — Al Jazeera; Oct 7, 2022

    How Moscow grabs Ukrainian kids and makes them Russians
    — AP News; Oct 13, 2022

    Russia abducting Ukrainian children, putting up for adoption in Russia
    — The Jerusalem Post; Oct 17, 2022

    How a Mariupol father survived a Russian POW camp and traveled to Moscow to save his kids
    — Meduza; Nov 4, 2022

    Are they trying to mitigate a demographic type problem or something?
    (They seem to have the machinery in place and running; I'm vaguely reminded of a recent TV show.)

    Earlier, I read those reports with a grain of salt, but they've been consistent for some time now.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    :D

    At the time of voting in the annexed regions:

    Either we win, or you lose. — Putin (para)
    Understood, sir. — Manager (para)

    Voting results:
    Donetsk ···· 99.2%
    Luhansk ···· 98.4%
    Zaporizhia · 93.1%
    Kherson ···· 87.1%
    

    Frankly speaking, I was not just happy, but surprised with the results of the referendums. [...] We've decided and I've decided for myself: it's going to be how the people say. And the results are more than convincing and absolutely transparent, beyond any doubt.Putin

    This is a subject of the Russian Federation, this status is legally defined and fixed. There are no and cannot be any changes here.The Kremlin said that the Kherson region remains a Russian region · Dmitry Peskov · Nov 11, 2022
  • Ukraine Crisis
    In Mar 2022, the Russian conditions for peace were apparently

    • recognition of Crimea
    • independence of Luhansk and Donetsk
    • de-militarization and de-Nazification of Ukraine

    NATO requirements might come from a proposal (a couple of documents) put forth by Russia in Dec 2021, some 7 years after Crimea, which includes

    All [30 or so] member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization commit themselves to refrain from any further enlargement of NATO, including the accession of Ukraine as well as other States
    The United States of America shall undertake to prevent further eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and deny accession to the Alliance to the States of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics

    A peace deal (or two, Feb, Sep) in 2022 explicitly with no Ukraine NATO membership was negotiated by Dmitry Kozak but ditched.

    So, what's the big deal with NATO anyway? Or, recalling some quotes (Putin et al), what existential threat did/does Ukrainian NATO membership pose against Russia?

    • NATO troops/military added in Ukraine could be seen as threatening
    • NATO membership would prevent/deter Russia from invasion (or similar)

    It's questionable whether the latter can pose such a dire threat.

    In 2022, no Ukrainian NATO membership seemed to go down in priority. (Recently, an intact annexed Kherson Oblast also seems to have gone down in priority.) Maybe it was all replaced with the Mar 2022 conditions above?

    Anyway, they seem noticeably keen on keeping Crimea Russian. Also a land corridor via Donbas in addition to Kerch. Not a lease on otherwise neutral ground or whatever, but secured Russian land, which any strong military would have gotten in the way of (and still might).
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Regarding the (alleged) Kherson retreat, DShRG Rusich, co-founded by Alexey Milchakov, posted:

    And a bunch of cotton wool sharply began to accuse us of provocation, cooperation with the SBU, and so on. And we just stated the obvious - the clowns from the Moscow Region did not learn how to fight normally in 8 months. The city was not destroyed even before the surrender (everything should have been blown up). But cotton wool is grabbing - they have enough excuses for clown AP channels (and channels of supposedly military specialists who are sitting in the rear). For us, this is another betrayal of the Russian people, who believe less and less that "Russia is here forever." What's the next goodwill gesture? Berdyansk or Melitopol?DShRG Rusich (Nov 9, 2022)

    Ironic that the Russian army has bloodthirsty neo-Nazis in their employ. Nothing new though I guess.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Scattered stories from the frontlines...

    Voices from the trenches: Ukrainian soldiers near Kherson share what they feel and fear
    — The Kyiv Independent; Nov 9, 2022

    Mad Dash to Flee Village Swarming With Putin’s Drunken Troops
    — The Daily Beast; Nov 10, 2022

    With cell phones being so common, a good deal of footage can be found of bombings, kamikaze drones, tanks exploding, and such. The destruction seems senseless.

    a more defensible position, from which they can bomb Kherson to the groundOlivier5

    Others reported the same. They don't seem all that bent on defending this "piece of Russia" (annexed). Maybe the severe threats are more ad hoc...?

    Analysis: Russia's planned Kherson retreat a double-edged sword for Kyiv | Via MSN
    — Reuters; Nov 10, 2022

    Putin makes top brass take the fall for Kherson humiliation – and that’s no accident | Via MSN
    — The Telegraph; Nov 10, 2022
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Just as a reminder in case anyone forgot.

    Chapter I, Article 2 of the UN Charter:

    1. The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.
    4. All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Downplaying some issues and "look-there" others seems to be Barbashin's main takeaway. Barbashin also noticed the subtle "justification" of Putinian politics, the autocratic un-democratic rule:

    Putin wants the world to forget Ukraine
    Anton Barbashin; Al Jazeera; Nov 3, 2022

    Seen that before, and history has. (Perhaps more among religious extremists.) Aligns with the anti-West rhetoric.

    What should we expect, though?

    Of course Putin wants the US to go away. That's not to say the US shouldn't, just that it might well be what Putin (really) wants for Christmas.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Moscow orders retreat from KhersonOlivier5

    They're apparently moving further east as well. Maybe trying to isolate the Melitopol region somewhat? It's unclear how many poorly trained soldiers are present, though.

    Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

    Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map

    Russo-Ukrainian War - Google My Maps
  • Ukraine Crisis
    don't buy for a second that he's actually concerned about NazisIsaac

    Don't think a whole lot do. Except perhaps in Russia, hard to tell. Either way, it keeps coming up from Putin and compadres.

    Fascism Comes to Ukraine -- From Russia
    Cathy Young; RealClearPolitics; May 21, 2014

    Its goal is to protect people who have been subjected to bullying and genocide by the Kiev regime for eight years. And for this we will strive for the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, as well as bringing to justice those who committed numerous, bloody crimes against civilians, including citizens of the Russian Federation.
    At the same time, our plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force.
    Full text: Putin’s declaration of war on Ukraine · Feb 24, 2022

    Can Ukraine have a ‘Nazi problem’ with a Jewish president?
    Shaked Karabelnicoff; Unpacked; May 15, 2022

    Anyway, if that can be scratched off, then their interest in Donbas was another from the get-go, and that was/is among their demands. And, if they had ulterior plans, then it'd be helpful to understand what they were/are, especially for decision-makers.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Russian Army Endorses Return of Soviet-Era School Military Training – Reports
    The Moscow Times; Nov 8, 2022

    Basic military training course to be added to Russian school curricula next year
    TASS; Nov 9, 2022

    Military training and "talking about important things" will take up 10% of the study time
    Novye Izvestia; Nov 9, 2022
    the introduction of such a subject in schools will allow for the systematic preparation of citizens for a possible confrontation with the enemySergei Mironov

    Soviet school kids were taught to assemble and disassemble Kalashnikovs. Now ‘Basic Military Training’ is set to return to Russian schools. Today one unhappy parent tells a Russian newspaper: “We should prepare our children for a peaceful happy life, not for war.”Steve Rosenberg · Nov 9, 2022

    Moscow's busy these days. Some years after 2023, Russia will be increasingly militarized, at least that's what it looks like.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    corporate opportunity to screw everyoneIsaac

    Does this really look that sinister to you...?

    Bayer plans to invest approximately $34.9 million (35 million euros) to boost the capacity of the company's seed processing facility in Pochuiky in Ukraine's Zhytomyr region.
    [...]
    Bayer has donated more than 40,000 bags of corn seed that will enable more than 1,250 smaller farmers to grow food.
    USAID and Bayer partner to support Ukrainian farmers and address the global food security crisis (Oct 11, 2022)

    I suppose maybe it is. I'd run with it, though. (Foodstuff, millions of children, ...)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    point about any dealIsaac

    The neutrality deal was to accommodate Putin's demands, "NATO threatening us", "deNazification", "demilitarization", that stuff. Their tune has changed some, and might continue to change.

    Russia declares expanded war goals beyond Ukraine's Donbas
    — Mark Trevelyan; Reuters; Jul 20, 2022

    As for the limits of the goals that we set during our special military operation, the President has outlined these goals, they remain unchanged. They will be achieved. Ukraine shouldn’t be a terrorist state that terrorizes its own citizens. It should not be a country that’s allowed everything, and whose impunity crosses all boundaries and leads to murders of journalists, political figures, and deputies of the Verkhovnaya Rada. It’s not only about the residents of Donbass, but about how Ukrainian nationalists treat peaceful citizens, as it is now happening in those areas of the Kharkov Region, and parts of the Zaporozhye Region, that they entered after our special military operation participants regrouped.Sergey Lavrov · TASS · Oct 11, 2022

    ↑ very careful not to suggest "war" by the way :smile:

    Conjecture on my part: If they thought it feasible, they'd grab all of Ukraine, and start re-culturation immediately. Down the line, who knows. On that angle, the demands are more like rationalizations for public consumption. The demands have become increasingly fake-looking (almost ridiculous), but decision-making and such depend on understanding their aims, which may not have much to do with peace anyway. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are being bombed throughout, not pretty.

    The neutrality thing addresses the demands, but if their aims are too different, then they wouldn't accept it, perhaps even as a starting point for talks.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    As usual, all kinds of speculation about what goes on in Moscow...

    Vladimir Putin is weakened and his opponents are preparing to strike
    — Alexey Minyaylo via Chris Brown; CBC; Oct 7, 2022

    Putin’s No-Win Trap
    — Kirill Rogov; Wilson Center; Oct 13, 2022

    What Could Bring Putin Down?
    — Daniel Treisman; Foreign Affairs; Nov 2, 2022

    Putin is losing his grip and facing regime collapse, says Russian KGB expert
    — Yevgenia Albats; The Sun; Nov 5, 2022

    Vladimir Putin's regime is being threatened 'from within', reveals Ukrainian official
    — Volodymyr Ohryzko via Luan Trimi; Oh My Mag via MSN; Nov 8, 2022

    Would be great (maybe). Not holding my breath though.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    going to take more than non-NATO membershipIsaac

    Right, like a formal neutrality agreement, involving external parties like the UN, NATO itself, whichever.

    already an agreementIsaac

    Except some number of their statements complain about that on their doorstep (been mentioned in the thread a few times by now). But, in a formal neutrality agreement, this would be put to rest.

    Does it look like Russia gives a flying fuckIsaac

    Whether they do or not, it would at least no longer be an excuse of theirs, it'd be credibly monitored by independent parties (like the UN).

    their naval base is currently in their territoryIsaac

    In a war zone. Not a neutral zone in which they'd have an agreement, a formal lease.

    This ship has sailedIsaac

    Don't give up so easily. Lives (and infrastructures) are at stake, right? Might take some time, but, hey, small steps.

    they can just stopIsaac

    Not if they wish to continue warring. It's proven costly.

    they're a lost cause as far as the 'Western' influence Putin fearsIsaac

    OK, so we're beyond NATO and a neutral Ukraine here. We're talking Putin against a couple or so continents. If that's his real actual beef, his reason for war bombing killing destruction, then he's already steered onto a path with a markedly larger conflict, not ending with Ukraine. That could be. Without some effort, I suppose we'll eventually find out, though I (personally) hope not.

    Do you think there's a significant opposition in Russia that would be satisfied by such an agreement?Isaac

    Don't know, but I'd be surprised if all of Russia is going all-out blood-lust. People have fled the country, some have tried avoiding getting sent to war, some poorly (or un-)trained new soldiers have reportedly surrendered to Ukrainians. Jussi Lassila's post from Apr 6, 2022 suggests less Russian enthusiasm than what meets the eye. But, hard to tell.

    I think Putin is one of the radicalsIsaac

    That's the bad part, where we might hope he's not a goner entirely. :/ There'd be no telling what's next.

    something more substantialIsaac

    The suggestion could be a start. Try getting China in on it. Something.
  • What exists that is not of the physical world yet not supernatural
    I'm not convinced "supernatural" has much meaning as such.

    If we were talking "supernatural magic" in fiction literature, then it could mean something like causing particular extra-self change by will alone, except maybe accompanied by rituals or something.

    The Book of the Dead, theurgy, the Key of Solomon, Enochian magic, telepathy, ...? (creative fantasies)

    Sort of similarly, I can't get a cab to go visit and shake Superman's hand, "Job well done, sir", but we can chit-chat about it just the same.

    0xr2dkled6ukitbr.jpg

    Back here in the world we inhabit/share, in what cases can "supernatural magic" not be replaced with "unknown" without incurring informative loss? In what cases have "supernatural magic" as an explanation done away with ignorance/errors? What does "supernatural magic" derive that's differentiable? For that matter, is there anything that "supernatural magic" couldn't be raised to explain? Such cases seem few and far between, if there are any at all.

    The verbiage would have to be exemplified and set out to have much meaning, yes?
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Al Jazeera reported (Nov 7, 2022; 3m:39s)...



    Zelensky sets terms for negotiations with Russia
    — Clyde Hughes; UPI; Nov 8, 2022

    Ukraine’s Zelensky Sets Conditions for ‘Genuine’ Peace Talks With Russia
    — Matthew Luxmoore, Laurence Norman, Marcus Walker; WSJ; Nov 8, 2022

    • compensation for losses
    • territorial integrity (per UN charter)
    • bringing war criminals to justice
    • guarantees against recurrence

    That's more or less four of Anders Åslund's six items: 1, 2, 3, 6,
    one of which (6) also was brought up by Oleksandra Matviichuk.

    (hey, mine is more future-oriented)

    Mykhailo Podolyak is skeptical...


    ‘Hundreds’ of Russians killed daily as Donetsk is ‘littered with bodies’
    — Nataliya Vasilyeva; Telegraph; Nov 8, 2022

    Civilians grabbed from Podmoskovye and shipped off to the frontlines? :/ Apparently, that's what those taken captive says.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Isn't that a bit hyperbolic, ? You wouldn't give them a chance to do some good, helping with Ukrainian foodstuff?
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , I don't know, ..., no NATO in Ukraine, a whole neutral country right there (the more the better?), no nukes in Ukraine, stability + some observers helping to prevent atrocities against minorities, one less staging area, one less geo-worry (check those eruptions elsewhere), their naval base on otherwise neutral grounds, a chance to show bona fides goodwill + potential for gaining international trust + rekindle relations, saving war resources (seems they already spent/lost quite a bit), possible cancellation of Sweden's + Finland's NATO applications, ease up some domestic tensions, sanctions easing up, a chance to exit the bad cycle/spiral, demonstrate resilience against the radicals for the world to see, less weeping mothers, decrease hate, picking the less risky/costly more stabilizing option, peace (in that area anyway).

    Actually, the option might as well be put forth. As a starting point at least, a way out. Try to get China behind it. Put the diplomats to work.

    But the Putinistas may not care. Might not be realistic. Can't say I'd be optimistic as it stands. At least everyone would know if that was the case.

    A blocker could be if the Ukrainians were to demand repairs or some such. Maybe the international community could step in, instead of Russia, don't know, it's all hypothetical.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , the scenarios you pitch against each other are both risky. :/

    How about reinstating the Kharkiv Pact with a neutral intact, otherwise free sovereign, Ukraine (though it could frustrate the extremists)?

    Say, having some UN observers or whatever scour about would probably be fine with most, including the Ukrainians. We're not talking Israel-Palestine here. Elections could be independently certified for some time. Maybe any internal conflicts could be addressed over time. People could get on with life.

    Did that ship sail?

    As an aside, this review makes the book seem interesting: How to Un-Rig an Election by Alberto Simpser