Comments

  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    , from my interactions with some of those folk, I think some of your comments are fairly accurate.


    Maybe some. But otherwise evangelical types, Mormons, angry hardliners, ..., all the way through mad conspiracy theorists, ...
    My impression is that extremism is (getting) more common than I thought a few years back — note there are also intellectuals stoking the fires.
    In part, things seen before in the history books.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    I guess this has been abandoned.

    Geneva Conventions » Protocol I » Article 1 - General principles and scope of application:
    • 1. The High Contracting Parties undertake to respect and to ensure respect for this Protocol in all circumstances.
    • 2. In cases not covered by this Protocol or by other international agreements, civilians and combatants remain under the protection and authority of the principles of international law derived from established custom, from the principles of humanity and from the dictates of public conscience.
    • 3. This Protocol, which supplements the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 for the protection of war victims, shall apply in the situations referred to in Article 2 common to those Conventions.
    • 4. The situations referred to in the preceding paragraph include armed conflicts in which peoples are fighting against colonial domination and alien occupation and against racist régimes in the exercise of their right of self-determination, as enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations and the Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Co-operation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

    Geneva Conventions » Protocol I » Article 52 - General protection of civilian objects:
    • 1. Civilian objects shall not be the object of attack or of reprisals. Civilian objects are all objects which are not military objectives as defined in paragraph 2.
    • 2. Attacks shall be limited strictly to military objectives. In so far as objects are concerned, military objectives are limited to those objects which by their nature, location, purpose or use make an effective contribution to military action and whose total or partial destruction, capture or neutralization, in the circumstances ruling at the time, offers a definite military advantage.
    • 3. In case of doubt whether an object which is normally dedicated to civilian purposes, such as a place of worship, a house or other dwelling or a school, is being used to make an effective contribution to military action, it shall be presumed not to be so used.

    Geneva Conventions » Protocol I » Article 57 - Precautions in attack:
    • 1. In the conduct of military operations, constant care shall be taken to spare the civilian population, civilians and civilian objects.
    • 2. With respect to attacks, the following precautions shall be taken:
      • (a) those who plan or decide upon an attack shall:
        • (i) do everything feasible to verify that the objectives to be attacked are neither civilians nor civilian objects and are not subject to special protection but are military objectives within the meaning of paragraph 2 of Article 52 and that it is not prohibited by the provisions of this Protocol to attack them;
        • (ii) take all feasible precautions in the choice of means and methods of attack with a view to avoiding, and in any event to minimizing, incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians and damage to civilian objects;
        • (iii) refrain from deciding to launch any attack which may be expected to cause incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians, damage to civilian objects, or a combination thereof, which would be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated;
      • (b) an attack shall be cancelled or suspended if it becomes apparent that the objective is not a military one or is subject to special protection or that the attack may be expected to cause incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians, damage to civilian objects, or a combination thereof, which would be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated;
      • (c) effective advance warning shall be given of attacks which may affect the civilian population, unless circumstances do not permit.
    • 3. When a choice is possible between several military objectives for obtaining a similar military advantage, the objective to be selected shall be that the attack on which may be expected to cause the least danger to civilian lives and to civilian objects.
    • 4. In the conduct of military operations at sea or in the air, each Party to the conflict shall, in conformity with its rights and duties under the rules of international law applicable in armed conflict, take all reasonable precautions to avoid losses of civilian lives and damage to civilian objects.
    • 5. No provision of this Article may be construed as authorizing any attacks against the civilian population, civilians or civilian objects.

    After all, prior violation can be used as an excuse, civilian targets can be declared military targets, the words can be made to override the intent, ...
  • How do we decide what is fact and what is opinion?
    , ah, but you won't find any purely deductive dis/proof of solipsism.
    You might think that I'm just a figment of your mind — rude. :)

    Seems you've moved on from that, as noted by...

    Certainly this – what you describe here – is mind-independent, no?180 Proof

    :up:

    Anyway, differentiating fact and (false) opinion can sometimes take a bit of work.
  • How do we decide what is fact and what is opinion?
    , I guess we do away with errors, delineate propositions, build on what has worked, assess evidence + reason, ...
    Epistemic standards is a comprehensive area, yet even common sense is fine on occasion.
    Claims come in all "shapes and sizes", justification likewise.
    (In analogy, I wouldn't ask a blacksmith to do heart surgery, or a surgeon to craft a Claymore.)
    For an existential claim, I'd just start out simple ...
    • if you're referring to something extra-self, then show us something
      (existentially mind-independent, objective, applicable to us all)
    • if you're referring to something you have on your mind, then tell us about it
      (often enough existentially mind-dependent, subjective)
    • if extra-self, then explain your interaction therewith
      (that others may differentiate you and the claimed)
    Or something like that.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , without aid, Ukraine would eventually get rolled over by Russia.
    Conversely, if supporters went by "give them what they want if they stay democratic (and reasonable)" (just an amendable example), then the invaders would likely eventually get pushed out.
    Somewhere in between, who knows?
    In (and between) democracies, decisions like that aren't particularly typical, decisions aren't dictated by one/few, there are many voices, which is an advantage for autocracies here.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    NATO Spending by Country 2024 (World Population Review)
    Which Countries Meet NATO’s Spending Target? (Visual Capitalist)
    Map shows how much Nato members spend on defence after UK’s £75,000,000,000 boost (Metro)

    Some years ago, I think it was @BC asking why the heck Denmark needed a bunch of new upgraded F-16s anyway, something like that, a natural question at the time. Military expenditures (and conscription) had overall decreased over the years, but the (current) Kremlin's efforts changed that. The links above show what countries appear most concerned, by and large those in Russia's vicinity, or those seeking the opposite of being (re)enrolled under the Kremlin, or shedding the shackles of Russian dominance.


    Russia vetoes a UN resolution calling for the prevention of a dangerous nuclear arms race in space
    — Edith M Lederer · AP · Apr 24, 2024

    Hm

    Lukashenka Says Dozens Of Russian Nukes Deployed in Belarus
    — RFE/RL · Apr 25, 2024

    ☢ ... I was still looking at the Belarusian allegations against Lithuania. Also:

    Belarus reveals alleged plot to attack Minsk from EU
    — RT · Apr 25, 2024

    Something's off here. But, either way, the allegations are serious enough to require substantiation.

    I'm vaguely reminded of the weird Havana syndrome thing. Some investigators pointed at Russian operations, yet official statements from intelligence agencies explicitly said they couldn't support that hypothesis. The allegation is serious, requiring proportional/relevant substantiation, which wasn't available, hence no such allegation. :up:

    The Belarusian allegations require substantiation, and, if that doesn't materialize, then another explanation of the allegations. I've been unable to find anything anyway.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    The KGB of Belarus announced the prevention of strikes by drones from Lithuania on Minsk
    — TASS · Apr 25, 2024
    Belarus says it thwarted attack on capital by drones launched from Lithuania
    — Emelia Sithole-Matarise · Reuters · Apr 25, 2024

    This I don't find plausible. Fairly serious allegation. Doesn't really make much sense. (If anything at all, wouldn't they make a move on Kaliningrad?)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , in line with

    A peace may be so wretched as not to be ill exchanged for war.Tacitus (56 — 120)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    All hypothetical imperatives
    — Peter Neumann · ZEIT ONLINE · Apr 23, 2024
    The Chancellor spoke in Berlin on the 300th birthday of the philosopher Immanuel Kant. Olaf Scholz tried to counter the appropriation of Kant by Vladimir Putin.
  • Climate change denial
    Wildfire season roars to life in parts of central B.C.
    — Rhythm Reet · The Weather Network · Apr 21, 2024

    Bit early? Last year was bad enough.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Argentina asks to join NATO as President Milei seeks a more prominent role for his nation
    — AP · Apr 18, 2024

    Unexpected? (Maybe it can help with the Falkland debacle?)

    Aid to Kiev to make US richer, Ukraine more bankrupt — Kremlin spokesman
    — TASS · Apr 20, 2024
    The decision to provide aid to Ukraine was anticipated and predictable. This will make the United States of America far richer but will ruin Ukraine further, making more Ukrainians killed because of the Kiev regime.Peskov

    :D Same old crap.crayons
  • Ukraine Crisis
    W93 ← well, I saw this response coming, however unfortunate the circumstances :/
  • What Are You Watching Right Now?
    Godfather (1972)Mikie
    excellent moviejavi2541997
    Some day, and that day may never come, I will call upon you to do a service for me. — Don Corleone

    (... what I try to imitate (poorly) when someone asks me a favor)

    Just have to watch the sequel though after the original. :)
  • Is there a limit to human knowledge?
    I don't think there is anyone being an expert in all fields that has/had subject matter experts; maybe that indicates limits of sorts?
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    , believing literally ... a few 1000 years ago some people lived 900 years, there was a magical world flood some 1000s years ago, the supernatural Yahweh character spoke commands to the Moses character as a burning bush, Yahweh boomed to His tribe / Moses on Mount Sinai, Moses + 600000 wandered the desert for decades due to Yahweh's trickery ... really isn't smart. Myths, legends, stories, ... But of course anyone is free to believe whatever, that part isn't negotiable. Anyway, stuff for another thread (or not). (And what's with Yahweh being so selective (His special tribe etc) anyway?)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Republicans denounce Russia propaganda within their own party:
    https://www.aol.com/news/luxury-yachts-other-myths-republican-090000423.html
    neomac

    Yeah. Though I think it's been known for some time. (*cough* this thread has examples)

    Then again, there's an elected official that believes planet Earth, and the universe, is a few thousand years old, incidentally a colleague of Vance mentioned in the article. Real life beats dramatized comedy.

    Was just going over some analyses of seemingly influential dis/mal/misinformation campaigns, maybe I'll post something later. Will likely remain applicable for the foreseeable future.Mar 8, 2024

    ↑ Tedious. Linvill, Warren and team has done some, as mentioned in the article.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    and the fact that Ukraine is extremely corrupt (meaning people with power do bad things against the interests of the population)boethius

    Evidently, shedding the shackles of the dominating neighbor is no small task; they're trying though, and have shown willingness to reform in the middle of bombs exploding. The Kremlin wouldn't afford them much chance; some others apparently hardly would either.

    is complete bullshit. Another ridiculous misrepresentation.Mikie

    Chomsky aside, this sort of thing sure is represented around here. :D

    There were some rumors on the street that Russia is accruing much debt to China. Details are scarce, though. Anyone?

    Drones + missiles one way, planes + missiles the other:

    Exclusive: Iran sends Russia hundreds of ballistic missiles
    — Parisa Hafezi, John Irish, Tom Balmforth, Jonathan Landay, Steve Holland, Phil Stewart, Daniel Flynn · Reuters · Feb 21, 2024
    Russia Uses Iranian Drones In Intense Air Campaign Against Ukraine
    — Iran International · Mar 30, 2024

    Russian weapons help Iran harden defenses against Israeli airstrike
    — Joby Warrick · The Washington Post · Apr 15, 2024
    Russia's arms pact with Iran: Moscow pledges fighter jets and air defenses to Tehran including advanced missiles capable of shooting down US and Israeli stealth planes
    — Will Potter · Daily Mail Online · Apr 16, 2024

    And some weapons "rerouted":

    U.S. Government Transfers Captured [Iranian] Weapons [to Ukraine]
    — U.S. Central Command · Apr 9, 2024

    So, anyway, the war seems to roughly have drawn up ...
    ▸ Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Iran, China
    —versus—
    ▸ Ukraine, Europe, North America, South Korea, Australasia, Japan
    ... or something along those lines. So far at least. Much like certain someones' idea of a bipolar :smile: world. Whatever happens, might then see future changes accordingly. As of typing, North Korea seems a bit like a loose cannon or wildcard. Could they trigger something?
  • Ukraine Crisis
    While checking

    Undersea ‘hybrid warfare’ threatens security of 1bn, Nato commander warns
    — Miranda Bryant · The Guardian · Apr 16, 2024

    an old report came to mind

    Russia targets Netherlands' North Sea infrastructure, says Dutch intelligence agency
    — Anthony Deutsch, Bart Meijer, Hugh Lawson, Susan Fenton · Reuters · Feb 20, 2023
    Feb 20, 2023
    A Russian ship has been detected at an offshore wind farm in the North Sea as it tried to map out energy infrastructure, MIVD head General Jan Swillens said at a news conference.Jan Swillens

    Is a defense posture warranted?
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Criticizing one's own society is all cool, and important, except when it tends to tunnel vision (or Kremlin-blindness, apropos).
    Fault-finding in this area (politics social people history whatever) is easy, hence picking the right battles is also important.

    (I thought this stuff was fairly trivial, but maybe not?)
  • What Are You Watching Right Now?
    , haven't read the books; I'm told they're good. We've started watching the original Chinese TV version, "Three-Body". Like how it tickles the imagination, though my wife thinks it's a bit on the fantastical side. :nerd:
  • Israel killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank
    , my impression was that just about everyone knew early on. Besides, didn't some of those drones more or less fly over Baghdad, some over Syria, some over Jordan? (Did some skirt over Saudi Arabia or close?) Fairly long flight. I imagine they were detected by various systems, but maybe I'm overestimating what's in the area.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Weakening Russia is in our strategic interest.RogueAI

    I'd say a Ukraine that's not Russia is in most but the Kremlin's interest, including, if not especially, Ukraine's. Been covered already.

    but the CIA crafted a propaganda campaign both with Ukrainian intelligence and media as well as Western media and other governments.boethius

    Tell us more. Say, do you have some (good/solid) examples?
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , that's what I've been observing — tunnel vision, Kremlin-blinditude — that you write as if you

    really don’t have a clue about what’s happeningMikie

    by reducing the war to your mantra, certainly not what the Kremlin is for, against, and about. Say, take the one bit you did mention in your response, maybe you could expand a bit on who's for and who's against instead, and to what end? (try, you can do it, clue in about it, references abound :grin:) And the other bits, there are a few after all?

    lfphloq4admenn6y.png
  • Ukraine Crisis
    a good pretext for fighting a proxy war it wanted all alongMikie
    Ukrainian people being caught up in this proxy warMikie
    It’s a proxy war between the US and RussiaMikie
    It is a proxy war between the US and RussiaMikie
    this proxy warMikie

    That's it? What the Ukrainians wanted has nothing to do with it? Irredentism and Putinian Russification have nothing to do with it? Democracy versus (regressive, proliferative) authoritarianism has nothing to do with it? Fears aired (repeatedly) by the Baltics, Moldova, the UN, whoever, are irrelevant? Regularly issuing threats to, and railing against, two or three or so largely democratic continents, while cozying up with North Korea, China, Iran, is irrelevant? Concessions, appeasement, setting precedence for others to make note of, is of no consequence? Ultimately confirming the Kremlin's rhetoric·shamming·stories·propaganda·aggression·whatever, in appearance and action, is of no consequence? Land grab? ...?

    Well, that's a remarkable (and regrettable) example of tunnel vision — incidentally, the sort of thing readily conducive to bias. :D

    Putin mocks planned Ukraine conference and says Russia won’t accept any enforced peace plans
    — AP · Apr 11, 2024

    Maybe cold war music like Allman is an earworm of Putin's. :)


    EDIT: forgot a couple links
  • Ukraine Crisis
    This can be intrepeted many ways, but I think the new entities refers to the Oblasts annexed.ssu

    That would be my guess, though based in part on the words being used: Reuters · Dec 13, 2022

    :cough: pseudo-legalized land grab
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Russian ambassador sees no return to previous format of cooperation with Finland
    — TASS · Apr 6, 2024

    Everything here will depend not so much on Helsinki, which has largely lost its independence in making decisions on foreign policy, but rather on the general policy course being pursued by Washington and Brussels toward Russia.Kuznetsov

    Seems to me that "lost its independence in [...]" is a wee bit exaggerated, albeit part of the story-telling. Say, Finland's border thing came from the Finns, not Washington/US or Brussels/EU. The Finns can likewise choose and decide other defense-related things themselves. Besides, Finland is free to leave NATO, though not free to not have Putin's Russia as a neighbor.

    Kuznetsov blamed senior Finnish politicians for almost completely dismantling cooperation with Russia.TASS

    Right, the Finns and the Kremlin, not the US or the EU. Is "almost completely dismantling" (again) exaggerated?

    there will be no return to the previous format of cooperation now that Finland has joined the aggressive military bloc [of NATO]Kuznetsov

    ... seems like the Kremlin dismantling? Speaking of "aggressive", leaving Ukraine be, would go a long way to solving the Kremlin's grievances, it's kind of the central thing here, without which Finland and Sweden likely wouldn't have sought NATO membership.

    As regards the situation around Ukraine, Finland has clearly joined `the party of war against Russia until they win’ here. Of course, we cannot but respond to potential decisions by the Finnish government in this sphere. Specific steps will be developed depending on real threats that these actions will pose to our security. The Finns cannot but realize that such a major provocation will not be left without a Russian response.Kuznetsov

    Going by actions·statements·rhetoric·regress·posturing·Russification and whatever efforts (of which some have heard enough), the Kremlin is the larger threat compared to NATO, at the moment, by a long shot. Had NATO demanded (or even suggested) that Finland prepare to invade/attack Russia, then I doubt the Finns would have been so keen on seeking membership, though they might have sought other strong alliances, which the Kremlin could label "aggressive" "major provocation" just the same.

    can all defense be narrated as offense, can all defensive measures be cast as threats?Apr 8, 2024

    Going by prior NATO nuclear weaponry placements, I wouldn't really expect much in Finland. Belarus, bordering Latvia·Lithuania·Poland·Ukraine·Russia, on the other hand, has reportedly received nuclear weaponry from Russia. Then there's Russia's own placements (and posturing).

    Surely you must understand the Kremlin has legitimate concerns about NATO troops in its historical sphere of influence?

    Albania: Hardly
    Bulgaria: Hardly
    Czechia: Hardly
    Estonia: Hardly
    (East) Germany: Hardly
    Hungary: Hardly ?
    Latvia: Hardly
    Lithuania: Hardly
    Poland: Hardly
    Romania: Hardly
    Slovakia: Hardly ?

    Moldova: Help
    Ukraine: Help

    Finland: Hey
    Sweden: Hey

    Anyway, not much new here. The Kremlin has visions; too bad for the Ukrainians that they got in the way of that.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Here are some military numbers plotted out, three graphs are about NATO, two global/general.
    An overall rough trend was down-slope until about 2014, then up.

    k4t32ds8mwsl7icy.jpg

    e12sfyvtz9m3rbzs.jpg

    nnhpmg558d07nok4.jpg

    3sfo7ffod9wb8gwh.jpg

    5dc3k7j7vffzxhxb.jpg
  • US Election 2024 (All general discussion)
    I normally expect world leaders to be reasonably reliable. Not perfect or anything, but reasonably reliable, fairly measured, engendering some minimum trust in what they say, at least giving some reasons to respect as a representative. Some measure of decency and bona fide utilization of smarts accordingly can also help. Whereas old Joe isn't the best, there's a baseline that the Clown doesn't meet. Anyway, that's just my vague inconsequential opinion.
  • The American Gun Control Debate
    It was touch and go there for a while but Cletus made it home from the fast food restaurant alive. He’ll bring more weapons the next time.Steven Leser · Apr 9, 2024

    j84ftyp5f85or41a.jpg
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , the Kremlin deciding to lay ☢ waste to Finland (or Ukraine) would be bad for Russia/ns. The Kremlin would have to harbor madness of sorts to go down that path, and there weren't even any threats of invading Russia, despite their cries about a "dire existential threat".

    If standing up to them is "the abyss" (as in "not to be done"), then think about what you've forfeit. ssu mentioned deterrence having gone out the window, and it goes further than so, as history indeed tells us.

    People can figure such stuff out on their own, without somehow having been tricked by the US.

    By the way, I don't think the Kremlin needs an invitation in particular, they're quite capable of coming up with their own.

    (As an aside, while sympathetic to pacifism, there's more to it. If a nefarious aggressor (warmonger) invades, and a third demands capitulation ("peacemongers"), and the rest demands to fight back ("warmongers"), then the "peacemongers" still stand to benefit in case the warmonger is repelled. That's fine by me (personally) I suppose, but might not be considered so in general.)
  • US Election 2024 (All general discussion)
    How do these people get elected for office?

    God is sending America strong signs to tell us to repent.

    Earthquakes and eclipses and many more things to come.

    I pray that our country listens. :pray:
    Marjorie Taylor Greene · Apr 5, 2024

  • Ukraine Crisis
    A brief timeline of events:

    2010 Jan 17	·	Ukrainian presidential election
    2010 Feb 7	·	election runoff (Yanukovych, Tymoshenko)
    
    2013 Nov 21	·	Euromaidan starts
    
    2014 Feb 18	·	Revolution of Dignity starts
    2014 Feb 22	·	Euromaidan ends
    2014 Feb 23	·	Revolution of Dignity ends; organized unrest in Donbas starts
    2014 Feb 27	⚔	Russian troops ("little green men") start seizing Crimea
    2014 Mar 18	·	Russia annexes Crimea
    2014 Mar 31	·	Kharkiv Pact annulled by the Kremlin
    2014 Apr 6	⚔	insurgents seize government buildings in Donbas
    2014 Apr 12	⚔	Donbas war starts; platoon under Girkin (Surkov) seizes Sloviansk
    2014 May 2	·	organized unrest in Donbas settles down
    2014 May 25	·	Ukrainian presidential election (Poroshenko)
    
    2019 Mar 31	·	Ukrainian presidential election
    2019 Apr 21	·	election runoff (Zelenskyy, Poroshenko)
    
    2021 Jan 1	⚔	ongoing scattered insurgent attacks in eastern Ukraine
    2021 Nov 10	·	the US reports Russian military buildup near Ukrainian border
    
    2022 Jan 17	·	increasing Russian troops in Belarus; increased separatist strife in eastern Ukraine
    2022 Jan 25	·	Russian military exercises in Crimea and southern Russia near Ukraine
    2022 Feb 10	·	Russo-Belarusian military exercises start
    2022 Feb 20	·	Russo-Belarusian military exercises end
    2022 Feb 22	⚔	Russian "peacekeeping" troops enter Ukraine
    2022 Feb 24	⚔	Russia invades northern, eastern, southern Ukraine
    2022 Sep 30	·	Russia annexes Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia
    
    2024 Jan 1	·	Russia occupies roughly a fifth of Ukraine
    

    In retrospect, what might have been different from early on?

    Some factors ...

    • the Kremlin likely planned for a while, multipronged too
    • democracies tend to act slowly/hesitantly, autocrats are less bound
    • the Kremlin takes initiatives (attacks), others react (less proactive measures)
    • divide and rule strategies have worked, and can work, well for the Kremlin
    • international peacekeepers in Ukraine didn't seem appropriate/feasible
    • early unrest had appearance of mere/internal domestic conflict
    • tiptoeing around Russia
    • Kremlin-anxiety (not the Moldovan kind here, but) nuclear in particular
    • an effective (internationally implemented) Ukrainian no-fly zone would risk direct confrontation with Russia
    • China has likely been supplying the Kremlin with intelligence including satellite, reliable intelligence matters all around
    • western countries have already been accused of neo-colonialism/imperialism, meddling, war-mongering, you-name-it
    • Russia has occasionally been promoted as all-but "invincible", though Russia was never itself threatened with invasion here
    • can all defense be narrated as offense, can all defensive measures be cast as threats?

    (It's worth noting that more or less all implemented measures have been met with criticism.)

    ▸ Crimea apparently took everyone by surprise. Hardly a fire was shot err hardly a shot was fired. In response, international supporters might have helped Ukraine with resources to counter the takeover (no secure Russia-Crimea land-bridge at the time). The Black Sea Fleet could have faced noticeable risk.

    ▸ The early insurgency might have seen international peacekeepers or more international involvement. Sufficient attention (and international presence), perhaps including mediation, could potentially have affected the course of events.

    ▸ In response to military buildup, international supporters might have quickly helped Ukraine with substantial defensive resources. Sufficient preparations·measures could have made a difference, including to the later grain and Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant situations.

    ▸ International military exercises (presumably not under a NATO umbrella) in Ukraine might have deterred the Kremlin from escalating aggression. NATO exercises in the neighborhood have been held with little response from the Kremlin.

    ▸ Perhaps more comprehensive upfront analysis·coverage·awareness of Kremlin and other story-telling from early on could have affected discussions·debates·back-and-forths·dis/agreements·re/actions etc. Ukrainian sovereignty, sentiments among non-NATO'ers (Moldova, Austria, Georgia, Ukraine, etc), NATO'ers to-be (Finland, Sweden), NATO'ers (Poland, the Baltics, Germany, etc) and NATO'ers no-longer-to-be (none as of typing), and other relevant topics could be included.

    ▸ Sustained, but specific, international propaganda·attention·exposé on Putin (say, at least after being named TIME Person of the Year in 2007), including directed at China, might have had some effect. Kremlin efforts (and their effects) have been seen.

    Lessons learned? Not learned?
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , double down insisting on teaching select parts of US history? :grin:

    (2023Mar21, 2023Dec17 - no sainthood there, but no matter)

    Resume the analysis/sub-thread?

    Is it then your assertion that the Kremlin had no (reason to) care about this (E+D) and implications — it was no concern of theirs?Apr 4, 2024

    Since you appear to only have eyes on the US here — other things being "regrettable" :grin: — was E+D then thought :up: / :down: by the US, would/did they act on/against that? (I suppose, in general, it can differ among US administrations)

    Actually, what would or did whatever different parties do with that, with what they wanted, and why? (though it can vary/change, especially in democracies)

    (↑ still part of the analysis)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    FYI, some election-related events (tass)(rferl)(csmonitor)(bbc)(politico)(nytimes)(bbc)(wired) around the Euromaidan / Dignity Revolution commotion (2013 Nov — 2014 Feb), in chronological order (though durations vary):

    2014 Apr 11 · Russian authorities (Chaika) pass materials regarding Yarosh to Interpol
    2014 Apr 12 · a full platoon under Girkin (Surkov) seizes Sloviansk in early Donbas war
    2014 May 22 · CyberBerkut attacks and disables Ukrainian election system
    2014 May 23 · Ukrainian election system restored
    2014 May 25 · Ukrainian presidential election
    2014 May 25 · Malware removed from election system that would have rendered Yarosh winner (37%) over Poroshenko (29%)
    2014 May 25 · Russian Channel One declares Yarosh winner (37%)
    2014 May 26 · CyberBerkut attacks Ukrainian election infrastructure, disrupting tally collections
    2014 May 29 · Poroshenko wins Ukrainian presidential election (55%)
    2014 Jul 25 · Interpol issues wanted notice for Yarosh at request of Russian authorities
    2016 Jan 2 · Yarosh apparently no longer on Interpol's wanted list

    Coincidences? ... Planned? ... Curious.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , so, using the thread to air other grievances? I suppose that could explain the Kremlin-blindness here. (Say, how to differentiate from an anti-US campaign? No matter.) You might fire up a fresh opening post to express them, perhaps what to do. (check this :smile:)


    :grin:

    ... and part of the war and factors into decision-making.

    Resume the analysis/sub-thread?

    Is it then your assertion that the Kremlin had no (reason to) care about this (E+D) and implications — it was no concern of theirs?Apr 4, 2024
  • Ukraine Crisis
    The problem with these people is that they've fallen hook, line and sinker for a story of American exceptionalism.

    They view Russia through a lens of unending cynicism (and I would argue that is reasonably appropriate), but fail to realise America functions in exactly the same way.
    Tzeentch

    Well, that's kind of odd, since you've repeatedly railed on just about the evil US, with

    (and I would argue that is reasonably appropriate)Tzeentch

    being a rare exception. :D Countless comments have been repeated about others than invader and defender, shooting blame from the hip, presenting plain speculation as plain fact, finger-pointing, positing mala fides, what-have-you. (Actually, wasn't "Everyone bad" established long ago?)

    I guess you (and certain others) leave it to others to pick up the slack, or the thread could go monotone, perhaps as far as going pro-Kremlin circle or indistinguishable therefrom.

    But, hey, let's for a moment run with your "the same" then, and differentiate by other means:

    Looking at other Russian neighbors, who want to see Ukraine become like another Belarus? :down: Another Baltics? :up: (What about where to raise kids?) Pick your poison?Apr 2, 2024

    Maybe I'll call failure to recognize such like ↑ "Kremlin-blindness". Unless they're too obvious to mention?

    Resuming the analysis (sub-thread):

    Is it then your assertion that the Kremlin had no (reason to) care about this (E+D) and implications — it was no concern of theirs?Apr 4, 2024
  • Ukraine Crisis
    , that's not what Dignity (or Euromaidan for that matter) was about, though it was about looking west (democratic EU) rather than north (Putin's Russia, Yanukovych), oligarchs, government corruption + power abuse, repressive laws, police brutality, human rights violations (← mentioned a few times); they didn't protest about UA's right to seek NATO membership. Is it then your assertion that the Kremlin had no (reason to) care about this (E+D) and implications — it was no concern of theirs?

    , keeping it real: you've presented your Nord Stream hypothesis as plain fact, when it is plain speculation.