I think the US is operating under the assumption that Europe is already at risk of leaving the US orbit, because US power is waning and Europe is in potential a great power that is being artificially kept weak by US influence. (The famous NATO slogan that ends with "... and keep the Germans down" should have been understood to mean "... all of Europe down".) — Tzeentch
Agreed that it was the case.
The European Trans-Atlanticist elite are under heavy pressure from so-called "populists" in a political battle that is essentially between Trans-Atlanticist US puppets and European nationalists. — Tzeentch
Agreed that this is the case.
This is something that I have been stressing for a while now: Europe is a potential rival to the US, and as Europe shakes the US yoke, the US will start to treat it as such. — Tzeentch
I believe this defeat of Europe as a rival has been now accomplished, for the foreseeable future.
Russian resources were a foundational part of European power and that can't be simply brought back online. The gas will flow to China as well as power Russia's own industry. Likewise with the other long list of resources Russia has.
They blew up the pipelines precisely to make the point that things will never go back to the way they were, with the response from European leaders being "and that's a good thing" and then bowing even lower and kissing the ring even sloppier than ever before.
There's no going back from that. That was the choke point: accept the destruction of your own infrastructure as a chastisement for even daring to have once upon a time thought of independent foreign policy thoughts, or then stand of for yourselves and have a foreign policy. For, if you accept the destruction of your own infrastructure by a foreign power you have no foreign policy (total subjugation being defined in this context as not-a-foreign-policy).
There's no need for a war with Russia.
What better way to hamstring Europe going forward than to leave it with war on the continent as a parting gift?
That will only increase European dependence on American weapons and goods. — Tzeentch
The problem with this is that you can't easily rinse and repeat Ukraine with other European countries as they are all in NATO. So the US would need to exit NATO, which is still part of it's force protection and prestige.
A war with Russia could go nuclear, so that needs to be taken into consideration.
But probably most importantly a proper Russian-European non-nuclear war would still likely be a marginal affair. Neither side has the forces to conquer large parts of the other's territory. Russians can't just march to Berlin, Germans can't just march to Moscow.
So actually starting such a war, with the US walking away, would simply create exactly what you claim the fear is of Europe leaving the US sphere of influence. New leaders would come in representing this fact and simply make peace with Russia and do exactly all the things this plan is supposed to avoid.
The status quo and it's natural progression, however, of a new cold war, of the eternal Russian bogeyman, of constant tensions and sabre rattling while Europe remains starved of resources, floundering economically, domestic and inter-European infighting, nationalism on the small scale, all that would accomplish the goals you layout for the Unites States.
Brexit having been the first step in this process (whether orchestrated or simply a surprise geopolitical gift for the US), and the Ukraine war locking the process in.
For whom the war with Russia is important is the current European technocrats that went all in backing the war and justify the economic sacrifices, geopolitical sacrifices, Ukrainian sacrifices, infrastructure sacrifices by the hand of the US, by reference to a higher calling and set of ideals it's worth sacrificing so much for, that borders shouldn't ever change by force (Europe has always stood for that, it's a long tradition) ... ideals that were ironically also sacrificed during the same period in Gaza and Sudan.
So a lot of sacrifices and if you have nothing to show for your toil the only way to delay the day of reconning is to say you haven't finished toiling yet, being asked a progress report completely disrupts the flow state, you "got this", and so to come back later. We've all been there and now the EU elites are also there.
What better way to hamstring Europe going forward than to leave it with war on the continent as a parting gift?
That will only increase European dependence on American weapons and goods. — Tzeentch
Slow boil yes. But abrupt: fight the Russians alone, we out of NATO, but also keep buying our weapons, may not get the desires response.
The current situation of European moral indignation and outrage and sabre rattling
without any EU citizen needing to pay a direct cost of war so the virtue signalling can just keep going and intensifying like lighting off fireworks in a disco, without also these weapons systems ever being tested, is what maximized European purchase of US arms.
An actual war requires high volume commodity production of the basics, such as artillery shells. Why the West didn't provide that for Ukraine is because it's low profit, so just winding down stockpiles without a plan for continued protection is the high-profit, sophisticated Wall Street move.
What creates the need for high-end, high-sophistication, high-profit weapons systems (whether they work or not) is the continuous prospect of a war that never happens (and if that war never arrives then who's to say what weapons actually work).
In terms of arms profiteering we're in a sweet spot right now, no need to go making waves with all this "put bold words in action" immature talk.
It's a reasonable alternative theory, but I don't see the US giving up their hegemonic empire without a fight. — Tzeentch
We agree on the motivations, the question is capacity (and a lucid understanding and response to that capacity).
If China has simply got too powerful and US war planners and elites understand that, then they may in response retrench where they can and strive for a modus vivendi with China, which largely already exists with China.
I think the US has no real reason to let China develop peacefully in a process by which it will almost certainly surpass the US in power. The US is still powerful now, and it has many allies in the Pacific which can easily cut off Chinese access to sea trade (which is the staple of US policy vis-á-vis China). — Tzeentch
The problem is geographical. China is immense and politically consolidated to all its natural borders.
The exception being its border with Russia.
Hence the strategy in the cold war was to maintain tensions between China and the Soviet Union.
However, if there's no way to run that strategy again, mainly because China has way less to fear from Russia than the former Soviet Union (China's way stronger now and Russia isn't the Soviet Union), and Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons and seems clear they are both content to just do business, then the odd-man-out becomes Europe.
If Russia-China collaboration cannot be prevented, then the next best thing is to cutoff Europe from Russia and prevent pan-Eurasion economic integration.
Trade between China and Europe will become almost an impossibility, especially if the Europeans and the Russians are at war.
You can see how vulnerable the Chinese actually are in a hypothetical scenario where its trade cannot flow overland freely. This is of equal importance to why the US wants to see Europe and Russia at war. — Tzeentch
Some giant conflagration is possible to achieve these ends. I'm not saying it's impossible, but there's a lot of practical difficulties and the results are not guaranteed. It's a high risk gamble to have Europe fight the Russians and not help, they may just go make peace with the Russians. There's also a geography problem of exactly where this war would be fought.
War in the pacific I would argue is even less predictable.
So it's a high risk gamble with high risk consequences to US business and domestic effects also.
If, on the other hand, the Europeans and the Russians kept relations good enough to facilitate trade, Chinese goods could find alternative land routes via Russia.
The Russians through their conservative approach to the war in Ukraine are signaling that they understand this and are trying not to burn all bridges vis-á-vis European-Russian relations, basically meaning to normalize after the conflict in Ukraine simmers down. — Tzeentch
Agreed that these are the considerations.
The question is, however, whether the Europeans cannot be successfully goaded into some extreme actions that force Russia to act (for example, Kaliningrad), especially when we consider the European Trans-Atlantic elite holds all the levers of power and is basically carrying out American foreign policy no questions asked. — Tzeentch
This is an example of the geographical problems mentioned. Around Kaliningrad you can have of course some skirmish, even major skirmish, but the geography is not setup for extended indefinite warfare as with Ukraine. In addition to the complicating factor of nuclear weapons.
You could have a second Ukraine in Finland, but there's not really anywhere to go from Finland, you just reach the sea so it's not some existential risk to Europe. You could have a new contact line killing a lot of Finns to maintain that doesn't really move. Russia would have their defensive system and Finns would have one facing the Russians and there's not really any need for either side to go on major offensives.
EU leaders need this to happen in order to say they are still working on it, as mentioned above, and maybe the US (as a "faction majority" of US elites and war planners) also prefers it, but it's not a giant all out European and US war. In my model a new Finno-Russian war is optional. It's an enhancement but doesn't fundamentally change the dynamic as Russia can't really invade Western Europe through Finland, so would just be the slow attrition of Finns until they capitulate (which is the reason against having this war, is that eventually Finns would be worn down and capitulate, so you either need to accept that outcome from the start).
To be clear, I find this enhanced version of my model the most likely, as lot's of parties inside Russia also would want continued warfare after the defeat of Ukraine so starting with Finland would be continuation, not a departure, for the status quo. And if there's one thing we know about the status quo is that it likes to be maintained in its current level of comfort.
However, this scenario is very far from WWIII.
Once the powder barrel is successfully lit and the gears of war start churning, it will be too late for second thoughts and there will be no going back. That's what the US is going to be banking on. — Tzeentch
Definitely already happened with Ukraine, but that therefore does not mean all potential wars must be started.
There are forces working against the start of new wars.
For the record, I hope I am wrong. — Tzeentch
Agreed.