I don't see anyone claiming this. — boethius

It's subconscious, I think.

And you seem to assume that the Russian side never makes any mistake, and that "everything is going according to plan". So the reason you are "struggling to see where this idea comes from that Russia is losing" is simply that you assume that whatever happens is a desirable outcome for the Russians.

So you think they are dumber than I think they are, because it made no sense to sacrifice the best Russian troops around Kiev just to make a diversion from the South, when the South was already occupied at the time...

I already explained my view on Russia's initial drive on Kiev. — Tzeentch

All you said was:

For one, with western backing it was obvious from the outset that taking Kiev would not end the conflict. Leadership of the war is not and never has been conducted from Kiev.

Secondly, taking Kiev (or any kind of full-scale invasion of Ukraine) would have made direct western military intervention a lot more likely - — Tzeentch

What was the purpose of sending -- and in effect sacrificing -- all these elites troops in the general direction of Kiev at the onset of the war,then? Their lives were spent in vain?

Indeed, excellent analysis, eg on why the dam was bombed.

A dictator for instance may find it difficult to fathom that killing Zelensky would not stop the resistance.
— Olivier5

I would turn that around, actually. Putin and his cronies aren't fools, nor is Zelensky, nor is the Pentagon or the EU leadership - they likely know a lot more than us. — Tzeentch

I see that my previous response was deleted. Oh my...

This has nothing to see with being a fool, and everything to do with being human.

Putin is a human being, not a god. He makes mistakes, and rest assured that there are things he cannot understand. You should not assume that what seems obvious to you necessarily seems obvious to him.

They tried and failed to capture Kiev and to kill Zelensky. Explain these facts, if you think they weren't trying to install a puppet regime.

For one, with western backing it was obvious from the outset that taking Kiev would not end the conflict. Leadership of the war is not and never has been conducted from Kiev. — Tzeentch

And yet, they tried to take Kiev and to kill Zelensky. Have you considered that what seems obvious to you may not seem so obvious to someone else? A dictator for instance may find it difficult to fathom that killing Zelensky would not stop the resistance. See what I mean? We are all prisoners of our world view. Putin's world view is hierarchical.

The soldiers and officers all thought it would be a walk in the park. That's what they say in any case.

The plan B was evidently to take Kiev and install a puppet regime. Didn't happen either.

Larger still are the Ukrainian regions the Russians failed to invade.
— Olivier5

The number of troops the Russians have deployed indicate they never intended to invade all of Ukraine. — Tzeentch

No, it does not. That is only your interpretation of it. The war goals of this "special operation" haven't been made public. My interpretation is that they expected a rapid Ukrainian surrender.

But not in Kherson, apparently. — Tzeentch

Too early to tell, but the Ukrainians have made progress there too, in blocking the logistics and regaining terrain.

It is significant because it means that the Russians can be beaten.
— Olivier5

You're implying that because Ukraine has shown the Russians can be beaten (lets put it in military terms - "is capable of offensive operations") Russia is losing the war. Seems like a jump to conclusions to me. — Tzeentch

Nope. I simply said that if Russia can be beaten in this oblast, it can be beaten in other oblasts. Do you understand now?

The Ukrainian forces took back some territory, but large parts of Ukraine remain in Russian hands. — Tzeentch

Larger still are the Ukrainian regions the Russians failed to invade.

Further, it shows the offensive halted at the first natural line of defense it encountered - the Oskil river. Why would that be?

Because the Russians blown up the bridges over the Oskil river while leaving, duh...

Why look at a map? It is significant because it means that the Russians can be beaten. If they can be repelled in Karkhiv, they can be chased from other regions as well.

I'm struggling to see where this idea comes from that Russia is losing, — Tzeentch

Your confusion is easily solved: it comes from them losing ground on the battlefield.

what Y can it offer in negotiations? — Isaac

None that I can think of, which is perhaps why they aren't negotiating, in actual fact.

the point of geopolitical analysis is to try to tease out what is more or less likely to happen — boethius

Sure. All I am saying is don't insult the future. Meaning, when you try and tease what could happen, do not assume that the future will necessarily repeat the past. Expect some surprises.

This is a broader issue than the war in Ukraine but the Ukrainian resistance, as a whole, has been one big surprise.

many things are possible — boethius

Exactly. And such is often neglected by people who think "inside the box".

I suppose the regime isn't ready to unleash Stalinist purges on its supporters. — SophistiCat

Yes, an official breakdown would be politically expensive.

Still, they could 'suicide' one or two of them, like they did to so many oligarchs. But then, Putin would be left with only the official reports, and he knows they lie.

Russian milbloggers must serve a purpose, otherwise they'd be dead.

Social networks are not reality, so fucking what? The point is that a better Russia could emerge from this war, IFF Russian forces lose the war. Of course, in theory a worse Russia could also emerge from it, eg if a leader even more nationalist than Putin gets to replace Putin.

Bottom line: the future is wide open, Ukraine can win and Russia can change. Enough with your pessimism.

However, the Ukraine-Russia situation is very different; pushing back Russia to its borders would not result in a situation such as Isreal and Mauritania where the persisting state of war could be said to be symbolic and there is no real threat. Russia would still be a considerable threat to Ukraine and could re-invade at any moment, the war would not be "over" and Ukraine would not have "won". — boethius

Putin's failure to invade Ukraine will probably lead to his death and/or replacement by someone else at the helm of Russia. Regime change, IOW. Perhaps the new Russian regime will be less Nazi than the current one.

Ukraine is not capable of invading and conquering Russia. That's what "winning a war" means. — boethius

By this measure, since Russia is not capable of invading and conquering Ukraine, Russia cannot win either.

I'd rather think this is only what it means for people who want to invade other people's land. But for people not bent on invading other countries, winning a war can mean something else, to be defined in each specific case. That is what people mean when they speak of "war goals": What is the specific objective of this specific war? It's not always about conquering and invading.

We don't actually know what Putin was trying to achieve with his war; he hasn't made his war goals public, afraid as he is to be seen as a loser. We will probably never know for sure. Somehow I doubt it was about invading some hectares of land.

↪ssu Pity poor boethius who thought this could never happen.
— Olivier5

What are you talking about? — boethius

You seemed to be of the opinion that Ukraine could not win this war. It can, and it will!

Kharkiv is simply not a strategically important offensive. — boethius

Foxes and sour grapes, again. When the Russian are booted out of Ukraine, you will say that Ukraine was not strategically important! :-)

Telegram actively evaded blocking. — SophistiCat

Thanks for this background. Still, couldn't they arrest the most negative milbloggers and send them to jail for 15 years?

rapacious boyars — Count Timothy von Icarus

You mean, corrupted generals and such? Those getting the ghost soldiers' pay?

On russian milbliggers, it baffles me that they are right now the world's only source on battlefield news.

Russian milbloggers — Count Timothy von Icarus

Interesting to note that, given the current news blackout from Ukraine, these Russian military bloggers have become our main source of info on what's happening on the front.

They are clearly well tipped by frontline informants.
Every one seems to assume they must have a pro-russian bias but some may still be 'catastrophists'.

One wonders why the Telgram platform isn't shut down or "policed". Maybe Putin too relies on them for info... :smirk:

He needs to decide fast, as training recruits takes time, and Ukraine has the initiative for once. Problem is, I guess they can't be sure that the average young, mobilisable Russian will not revolt or surrender if forced into this hell. There is a risk there.

We have already lost’: far-right Russian bloggers slam military failures
Military pro-war bloggers with frontline contacts offer rare insight into Russia’s performance on ground
Pjotr Sauer, the Guardian
Thu 8 Sep 2022 13.35 BST

“The war in Ukraine will continue until the complete defeat of Russia,” Igor Girkin, a far-right nationalist, grumbled in a video address to his 430,000 followers on Telegram on Monday. “We have already lost, the rest is just a matter of time.”

Girkin, a former Russian intelligence colonel who became a commander of the pro-Russian separatist forces in 2014, is arguably the most prominent voice within an increasingly loud and angry group of ultra-nationalist and pro-war bloggers who have taken to berating the Kremlin for its failure to achieve its tactical objectives as the fighting in Ukraine has entered its seventh month.

After Ukraine’s latest counter-offensive in the south and the north-east of the country, these bloggers – who have so far been granted a public platform denied to many – have intensified their criticism of the Kremlin, slamming the army’s inadequate performance in the war and urging Vladimir Putin to declare a full-scale mobilisation.

Pity poor @boethius who thought this could never happen.

You're most welcome.

I had rather imagined mean bullying, tasteless scorn wrapped in jokes. — spirit-salamander

Imagine away. Scientists are human beings like you and me. Some do scorn, others don't. In any case, to make fun of cretins is legit in my book. That'd be the reason God created cretins: to make us laugh.

Ukrainian counter-offensive upsets Russian forces near Kharkiv

It is in the east that the Ukrainian forces' counter-offensive is proving the most effective. They regained ground in the region, taking advantage of a weakness in the Russian defensive system.

By Emmanuel Grynszpan, le Monde
Posted today at 5:30 a.m.
https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/09/08/guerre-en-ukraine-une-contre-offensive-ukrainienne-bouscule-les-forces-russes-pres-de-kharkiv_6140648_3210.html

It had been expected for months in the south of the country, in the Kherson region. But it is in eastern Ukraine, near Kharkiv, that the Ukrainian forces' counter-offensive is proving most effective. Between Tuesday September 6 and Wednesday September 7, it broke through the Russian defense lines and advanced 15 kilometers. Images filmed by the Ukrainians and testimonies from both sides attest to this movement, which occurred in one of the least publicized areas of the front line which stretches over 2,000 kilometers.

It seems that the Ukrainians had previously identified a weakness in the Russian defensive system there and attacked by surprise. The idea would be to cut Izioum's main supply route. This Ukrainian garrison town, taken in March, is used by the Russians as a rear base to attack northern Donbass.

The influential Russian blogger Starche Eddy (half a million subscribers on Telegram) deplores that the Ukrainian army “has for the moment completely outclassed our command (…) . Izioum prepares for battle. We must now wish good luck to our soldiers, our veterans and our officers. The enemy will strike from the north and from the south (…) , the night will be hot” .

“Exceptional Audacity”

The breakthrough was made near the town of Balaklya, pushing Russian forces to the left bank (north side) of the Siversky Donets and Serednya Balakliika rivers on Tuesday, September 6. Ukrainian forces probably took Verbivka (less than 3 kilometers northwest of Balaklya) on 6 September. Geotagged images published that same day show Ukrainian infantry in the east of this city.

Several Russian sources have acknowledged the Ukrainian gains and report that the Russian army hastily demolished bridges east of Balaklya to halt the Ukrainian advance. The experts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in Washington, believe on the contrary that these destructions testify to the fact that the Russians were preparing for a retreat. The Ukrainian assault troops are now advancing towards Kupyansk, another crucial city for supplying the Russian divisions attacking the Donbass.

"On the Kharkiv front, the enemy launched [Tuesday] an offensive which he had been preparing for a long time, judging by the transfer of reserves, striking his main blow in the sector of the city of Balakliïa" , relates, on his Telegram channel, Igor Girkin (alias "Strelkov"), a retired colonel and former Russian warlord, who led the armed uprising in the Donbass in 2014 during the first months. Ukrainian army, this ultranationalist remarks "the exceptional audacity of the enemy attacks taking positions, penetrating them at high speed directly by means of armour, as a result of which [the] [Russian] artillery lost the ability to hit a enemy too close [its] positions” .

On Wednesday evening, the Russian forces seemed to have lost two additional localities (Baïrak and Nova Husarivka, south of Balakliïa). Moscow has probably cleared this area since the end of August to redeploy soldiers in the Kherson region, where the Ukrainian counter-offensive was clearly preparing.

Strikes on logistical nodes

Based on available obituary data on Russian soldiers, the ISW found that Russia elements of the 147th Artillery Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army deployed in the Kherson region no earlier than the end of August. “This is the first time that the ISW has observed elements of the Russian 1st Guards Elite Tank Army operating in southern Ukraine. Elements of the 147th had previously fought at Buchha and Kiev in March, and elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army were active mostly along the Kharkiv axis after the Russian withdrawal from Kiev. »

Begun ten days ago, the counter-offensive in the Kherson region is progressing more laboriously on a front 200 kilometers long. Here too, the Ukrainian forces have long sought weak points in the Russian system. The preparation was made by continuous strikes on logistics nodes coming from Crimea, means of transport, concentrations of troops and equipment, ammunition depots and command centers in the Kherson region.

Particular effort was made to methodically destroy the only two bridges crossing the wide Dnieper and, subsequently, the ferries used by the Russian army. The objective was to exhaust the isolated Russian army corps north of the Dnieper until, deprived of the necessary supplies, it was no longer able to resist.

“In the area of ​​the enemy bridgehead, [south of] the Ingulets River, the enemy continues to slowly but surely push back our units ,” laments Igor Girkin. According to his information, which matches that collected from pro-kyiv sources, the Ukrainian forces have taken four localities: Sukhoi Stavok, Bezimenne, Kostromka, Schastlivoie. “Such a deep advance by the enemy threatens to break through the front towards Tchkalovo, and further towards Berislav, with, as a result, a fragmentation of our units in this area” , he comments again on Telegram.

Clandestine actions

Pentagon Undersecretary for Defense Policy Colin Kahl also confirmed for the first time on Wednesday that Ukraine had launched its counteroffensive in Kherson and "inflicted heavy casualties on Russian forces . " Kherson is also the scene of frequent clandestine actions. On Monday, a vehicle bomb killed a local Ukrainian official collaborating with the Russian invader. This is the twentieth assassination or attempted assassination in six months. On Wednesday evening, the headquarters of Vladimir Putin's United Russia party in the city of Melitopol was blown up, an action claimed by Kyiv.

Moscow regularly postpones the holding of "referendums" intended to legitimize the annexation of Ukrainian territories. A few hours before the Melitopol explosion, the local boss of United Russia, Andrei Tourtchak, had announced that these consultations would be held on November 4. A date which corresponds to the feast of the unity of the people in Russia.

But, while the Ukrainians rejoiced to finally seeing their counter-attacks materialize on two fronts, a few false notes disrupted the day on Wednesday. In the Donbass, Russian forces managed to gain ground on two axes. In Piski (northwestern suburb of Donetsk), they took the "anthill" , nickname of an underground bunker gradually reinforced in 2015. The front in this area had hardly moved for eight years thanks to a line of defense very efficient Ukrainian. Further north, Russian forces captured the also heavily defended hamlet of Kodema, thereby breaking one of the last barriers to the town of Bakhmout.

I liked that. Here's one to match, though I couldn't find the lyrics.

Sure, but still there is an ideal of the scientist. A standard to which all scientists want and should adhere. Love of truth and objectivity, sobriety, modesty, contempt for money and fame, apoliticalness, being factually nuanced and fair, patience, more head-driven than emotion-driven, frankness and honesty, and much more are part of the ideal. Also very important is fearlessness. — spirit-salamander

Long list of superhuman qualities you got there. By this token, only God is a scientist. And yet, a lack of humor was not mentioned in your super long list. So scientists can poke fun at others, yes?

Many scientists took their view for granted and made fun of other views — spirit-salamander

There's nothing wrong with having some fun. Don't confuse scientists with robots.

They know, I know and you should know that anthropogenic global warming is real. Everything else is a distraction, meant to confuse folks..

my thesis is that we know very little about the interactions between the sun and the many layers of the earth's atmosphere. And very little about the processes in and between these layers. — spirit-salamander

That is true as far as you are concerned: you know indeed very little about these things. But others do know much more than you do, because they have studied those things.

Either way the human race will not die out due to climate change anytime soon (as in for thousands and thousand of years) — I like sushi

Thanks for the cristal ball gazing. Most reassuring, if you believe this kind of stuff.

great many so-called ‘Climate Deniers’ are simply questioning nutcases at the other end of the scale — I like sushi

Any example?

There are solutions to climate change. Many of them are under way. Those who believe it’s hopeless are entitled to think so — they may be right. But we can’t act on that basis. — Xtrix

One need not hope in order to undertake, nor succeed in order to persevere.
-- William I, Prince of Orange

Even if avoiding global warming is now impossible, realistically speaking, mitigating its worst aspects remains a useful task, and so is trying to slow down the phenomenon development so as to give us time to adapt.

The signed treaties have made some progress. The Montreal Protocol have almost eliminated CFCs and the Paris agreement for net-zero emissions. — L'éléphant

I am all for it, and lament the lack of US support for the Kyoto protocol. But my interlocutors were expressing concerns that the UN will replace national governments and force a global no-carb revolution. I don't think that's in the cards.

It is too late to stop global warming. The best we can do at this stage -- after two decades of disinformation by big oil fucked up people like you so that nothing be done to reduce CO2 emissions -- is to mitigate the worst effects, by radically reducing our CO2 emissions. But of course we won't do that either.

The next best thing we can do is try and adapt to climate change.