• Ukraine Crisis
    Some events in Putin's Russia's ☢ thing ...

    Feb 03: Russian missile systems arrived in Belarus, allegedly for exercises
    Feb 18: Russia (publically) announced strategic ☢ forces drills, Putin oversaw, included launches of ICBMs and cruise missiles
    Feb 19: Russian strategic ☢ forces ran exercises near Ukraine border, Putin oversaw
    Feb 24: Russia invaded Ukraine :fire: ("special military operation" :eyes:)
    Feb 24: In public speech, Putin raised ominous ☢ threat (also referring to the USSR by the way), warning anyone interfering with "consequences they have never seen", mentioned "several cutting-edge weapons"
    Feb 27: Televised, Putin ordered Russia's ☢ deterrence forces on alert ("a special mode of combat service")
    Mar 02: Lavrov said a third world war would be ☢
    Apr 14: Rogozin ("the Roscosmos troll") said on TV that he and Putin met regarding construction of superior missile systems
    Apr 20: Russian military notified of successful tests of new ICBM, Putin congratulated military, warns of weapon's superiority
    Apr 23: Rogozin said construction of 46 ICBMs (large, ☢-capable) on schedule, ETA fall
    Apr 25: Lavrov warned of serious ☢ third world war possibility
    Apr 27: Solovyov sort of threatened (or trolled) the UK with erasure by ☢ strike
    Apr 27: Putin threatened more or less whole world with swift and capable response to intervention, mentioned it's already been decided (like "set in stone")
    Apr 28: Simonyan (state TV) made a feature of Putin's resolve, other TV anchors threatened with ☢ destruction (boasting superiority), a bit echo chamber'y
    • Throughout, Russian forces have attacked/destroyed some Ukrainian ☢ power plants/sites, including Chernobyl

    Whatever they're thinking and/or planning, it's rather clear that Putin wants everyone to know, wants to deter/threaten/scare/bully everyone, like "Russia can and ain't shy of first ☢ strike".

    Timeline: The events leading up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Reuters; Mar 1, 2022)

    Regarding organized risk reduction:
    Putin just tested a new long-range missile. What does that mean? (Brookings; Apr 26, 2022)
    Kind of puts China in a bad light.

    More rattling:
    Kim jong Un warns North Korea would 'preemptively' use nuclear weapons (CTV News; Apr 30, 2022)

    (edited to add Reuters timeline, CTV article)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10762143/Ukraine-war-Russian-state-TV-says-nuclear-strike-probable-losing.html — neomac

    Either we lose in Ukraine, or the Third World War starts. I think World War Three is more realistic, knowing us, knowing our leader. — Margarita Simonyan

    Then impeach or replace — or at least pressure or talk to — your leader. Not just de-Nazification of the Donbas, but world war 3 (de-humanification of the world)?

    We will go to heaven, while they will simply croak... — Margarita Simonyan

    And that could explain the Fermi conundrum just like that. :pray: :ok: Should anyone be observing us, then they're staying way off our radar.

    Then again, Margarita Simonyan may just be parroting what Kremlin wants her to. Threat-propagation.

    I have zero moral judgement about Ukrainians murdering, in whatever way they see fit, Russian aggressors. — StreetlightX

    Others prefer differently. (But your apathy is noted. :up:)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    I also think it's misleading to claim they gave him the thumbs up. — Baden

    My impression was that Putin somehow managed to sell "safety and freedom for Russians in Donetsk and Luhansk" to Jinping, something like that, but I may easily be wrong. Do you think there's a "nervous" or "uneasy" relationship here?
  • Ukraine Crisis
    It sorta seems like a lot of people secretly want there to be at least one big war in their life that they can watch on TV. Peace is boring, [...] — _db

    :D

    Well, there are people trying to make a difference in the face of power extremism money madness ...

  • Ukraine Crisis
    If Putin nukes Ukraine, then Russia will get eyes-on (of the world), and send whoever NATO's way. It would further legitimize blasting Russia's military concentrations just the same. Might embolden Kim Jong-un too, who knows.
    At no point (until then), would Moscow have been particularly threatened, unlike Ukraine, hence Putin would have brought Russia into greater danger (perhaps also from China), whether of particular concern to him or not.
    The Ukrainians apparently aren't bending over, so now what? Get them to talk instead of bomb.
    This is how you threaten more or less everyone, using "world war 3" as a deterrence so you can do whatever:

    The risks now are considerable. I would not want to elevate those risks artificially. Many would like that. The danger is serious, real. And we must not underestimate it. — Sergey Lavrov (reported Apr 26, 2022)

    if anyone sets out to intervene in the current events from the outside and creates unacceptable threats for us that are strategic in nature, they should know that our response... will be lightning-fast. We have all the tools for this, that no one else can boast of having. We won't boast about it: we'll use them, if needed. And I want everyone to know that. We have already taken all the decisions on this. — Vladimir Putin (reported Apr 27, 2022)

    What's next?

    • List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War (Wikipedia)
    • Ukraine Support Tracker (Kiel Institute)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Why is this time so different? — frank

    "fool me once fool me twice ..."?
  • Extremism versus free speech
    Suppose that some organized team runs a campaign in our neighborhood, anti-semitism, Holocaust-denial, standing on a soap-box, perhaps going door-to-door passing out flyers, whatever.
    What would be the right thing to do?
    Tell them to "grow a heart", to get lost, call the cops, ...
    (This sort of thing can get increasingly problematic the younger the listeners.)
    If someone were to do that in our house, then we might get into a quarrel/skirmish, or we might show them the door, which sooort of is what Amazon (and Apple, Twitter, Facebook) has done, to return to Peter's article.
    Consequently, let's just say they'd be abusing freedom, that their particular speech isn't worth protecting (
    ↪Ciceronianus
    :up:), more like the opposite.
    That's not due to being against free speech.
    The slippery slope (
    ↪I like sushi
    ) is what makes it non-trivial.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    In my view, the US/NATO are as much to blame for this war as Russia. — Benkei

    The Ukrainian NATO membership threat again...? It's already been conceded both by NATO and Ukraine.

    Zelenskyy calls again for meeting with Putin ‘to end the war’ (Al Jazeera; Apr 23, 2022)



    That story at least came and went. The invasion is a snaffle, a grab (or attempted anyway), orchestrated by Putin, perhaps planned well ahead or otherwise simmering for a year prior.

    The digital onslaught, which Microsoft said began one year prior to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion, may have laid the groundwork for different military missions in the war-torn territory, researchers found. — Microsoft discloses onslaught of Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine (Reuters · Apr 27, 2022)

    Except, this time around (unlike the Crimean "military operation"), Putin got a bloody nose (and perhaps lost a bit of pride, who knows).
  • Extremism versus free speech
    That simple eh,
    ↪NOS4A2
    , black'n'white rule-setting, so unlike ethics?
    Examples to the contrary have been given, though.
    Reduction to a trivial rule doesn't quite work.

    ↪AndreasJ
    , speech isn't all propositional;
    ↪praxis
    showed as much.

    Freedom of expression is a starting point, but not really the end of it.
    (I kind of like true speech myself, but that's not the end of it either.)

    Returning to the article linked in the opening post, exposing hordes of crazies to the mad ramblings on Parler didn't sit well with Amazon, so they were told to go do their thing elsewhere.

    (edited for content)
  • Extremism versus free speech
    My emphasis:

    Free speech does mean speech is free from consequences, and it ought to be treated that way. — NOS4A2

    Too simplistic, there's more to the story, but it's not that free speech/expression ought to be ditched of course. (Once upon a time I'd have said that the only way to respond to speech is more speech.)

    There are no simple answers it seems, and, meanwhile, AA will continue to see (or claim) "Fascists" oppressing them. — jorndoe

    There can already be consequences. You might have to assume bona fides speakers, and soundly judging listeners, for example.

    ↪Agent Smith
    , right, it's not quite a trivial matter.

    Free speech no longer exists in our modern era. — javi2541997

    Sure it does; otherwise Chomsky would have been gagged. ;) Those things you mention haven't stopped/prevented Trump from speaking, they just took away his use of their platforms to do so (mentioned in the article).

    Fascism is an over used word — javi2541997

    :up:

    Anyway, Peters use verbiage like "a nexus of extremism", "has a problem with far-right violence", to describe Parler. Couldn't they have told their posters to chill out and discuss things (maturely)?
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Putin's Witches
    https://www.asianews.it/news-en/Putin's-Witches-55347.html     — neomac

    Good grief man. It's 2022. Not 22.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Haven't we just got through repeating in painstaking detail how Neo-Nazis are not justification for invasion? — Isaac

    Unless perhaps

    (headline) "Nazi Ukraine marching on Moscow" — jorndoe

    Currently, we have Putin's Russia invading/bombing Ukraine.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Funny how [...] — Isaac

    Ukraine has a Neo-Nazi problem. Putin used it (and specifically, US covering up their alliance with them) as a justification an excuse for the invasion. — Isaac

    Double standards, hypocrisy (straight from the initiator/invaders).

    Us then going ahead and doing exactly what Putin wants to say we do (denying the blindingly obvious Neo-Nazi issue) is playing directly into his propaganda. — Isaac

    "blindingly obvious" is sort of a weasel phrase here (slant, bias), but OK then, maybe it's time to secure extremist-infested Russian areas by force (call it, say, "an armed humanitarian operation")?

    Right, yes, there are extremists in Russia and Ukraine (and elsewhere). Edging towards stability + freedom and such might help with sidelining/decimating them? Heavy emphasis on the problem just in Ukraine (by Putin in particular) is out of proportion though, and it's not like (headline) "Nazi Ukraine marching on Moscow". Speculation: if the Ukrainian parliament had sessions discussing/addressing the problem, then Putin might just have found another excuse.

    • List of neo-Nazi organizations, • Racism by country, • List of white nationalist organizations, • Geography of antisemitism

    Combatants:
    • Attackers: Russia (led by Putin), Chechens/mercs/who knows, ...
    • Defenders: Ukraine (led by Zelenskyy), some volunteers/Belarusian separatists, ...
    Otherwise involved (in αβic order, incomplete):
    • Ukraine: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Poland, Turkey, UK, USA, ...
  • Ukraine Crisis
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/apr/19/ukrainian-workers-flee-modern-slavery-conditions-on-uk-farms — Isaac

    :o Seems the commenters agree — bad conditions and something ought be done. Those farmers doing unchecked capitalism (or being assholes) need slapping.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Thomas L Friedman opines (The New York Times):

    China and Russia Are Giving Authoritarianism a Bad Name (Apr 18, 2022)

    :D

    You can sit down now. — Putin to Naryshkin (intelligence chief)
  • The Penrose Bounce.
    No. That's exactly the point of gods. They give closure to the infinite regress. — Haglund

    Why? The diallelus applies just the same.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Yeah, kind of starting to think all the "NATO" "Nazi" "Putin is unstable" whatever stories are diversions or bullshit, and the invasion is a snaffle. (Or attempted, so far.)
    What more reason do you need? Coherent.
    Of course NATO would get in the way of that (baad for momentum), maybe even China could, and now, unlike Crimea, the Ukrainians sure have (baad for momentum). Roll into Donbas (good for momentum).

    another stage of this operation is beginning — Sergei Lavrov (Apr 19, 2022)

    Yeah, Sweden and Finland should join NATO. Might have a good influence there, too.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    ↪Benkei
    , such a deal would have to be negotiated by Ukraine (the invaded) and Russia (the invader). A bit hard to do with bombs falling (and the implied threat of ramping up military), despite concessions having been made in public for all to hear. Ironically perhaps, something nuclear missiles and NATO have in common is deterrence. Ukraine has neither, just ruined infrastructure, dead, etc, and apparently some war crimes committed. The ball's in the invader's court in that respect and has been for a bit.

    ↪Isaac
    , right, no such thing as simple here. The NATO thing was a primary concern though and has been conceded. Getting to the negotiation table is warranted (if that concern was genuine and primary in the first place). Otherwise... Peace was never in the cards? The invasion was inevitable? Long-term plan? :/ (I don't think rhetoric like "weak" and "decadent" is much of a rationale for war, just the usual hot air.) So far, Ukraine has lost infrastructure, people, freedom, but has kicked a good deal of invaders. Russia has lost soldiers, weaponry, freedom of press, trust/goodwill from several other parties, economics, but has inflicted damage on its targets, and is holding some areas.

    Completely unrelated, I'm rooting for Sergiy S Tkachenko, an accomplished Ukrainian typographer that's put together nifty fonts and such. Otherwise occupied at the moment, though.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    ↪Isaac
    , it's no longer news, and hasn't been for some time: No NATO membership for Ukraine (said both by NATO and Ukraine). It hasn't been an excuse for a while. Bombs are still going, though, which sort of makes the demand/excuse a bit suspect. And, going by rumors, Russia is ramping up military "operations" (convoys, conscriptions, whatever), instead of committing more to diplomacy/negotiations/assurances.

    So, the wretched nuclear ☢ (plus perhaps ☣ ⚗) scenario... The threat has been made by Putin and taken seriously enough. I doubt anyone wants to call him out on it, yet how far can the "hostage-taking" be taken? Where's the threshold (if any)? Presumably, Putin making good on his threats would be.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Edmund Adam writes:

    Analysis: Ukraine war: The history of conflict shows how elective wars ultimately fail (Mar 29, 2022)

    (Didn't take Crimea and such into account, though.)

    Going to be costly for Putin's Russia, ☢ rattling or not.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Jonathan Freedland comments:

    Putin still has friends in the west – and they’re gaining ground (The Guardian; Apr 8, 2022)

    Comparatively, there's a good deal more public self-criticism and soul-searching in the US than in Russia. A problem in the US is that it's kind of drowning, everything from all kinds of crud to intellectuals like Chomsky. In Putin's Russia, much like in China, they're oppressed (including heavy-handedly), whether covertly by (scared-offended) oligarchs or Putin or whoever. At least in the US, like in various European countries and Downunder and other places, people can launch scathing societal/political critiques. Russia's propaganda machine has the easier job, and a bit of help.

    (There are people in Freedland's article I'd have problems getting along with.)

    Putin denies Ukraine's self-determination (something that's part of UN's Charter in line with the human rights declaration). Rationale has been given, but activities, and lack thereof, seem to suggest other objectives?
  • Ukraine Crisis
    The machinery is operating :fire:

    Mar 6, 2022 · Patriarchal Sermon on Cheesefare Week after the Liturgy at the Cathedral of Christ the Savior (Russian Orthodox Church, in Russian)

    Mar 7, 2022 · Russian Orthodox Church Leader Blames Invasion on Ukraine's 'Gay Pride' (Newsweek)

    Mar 8, 2022 · Moscow patriarch stokes Orthodox tensions with war remarks (ABC News)

    Mar 9, 2022 · Blaming the Ukraine Invasion on … the Gays? (The Bulwark)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    It's not their lives. Zelensky (and his government) decide how to proceed. Western governments decide in what way to assist. Ukrainian children die. They didn't get a say in the matter. If you think that's moral, that's your lookout, but I don't see how. I don't see anyone asking the Ukrainian children if they'd rather lose both parents and remain governed by Zelensky, or retain their family and be governed by a Putin puppet. — Isaac

    Flirting with victim blaming?
    (Was about to type something about "bending over", but nevermind, we might be in mixed company.)
    That pragmatic approach is sort of understandable enough. Yet, don't forget that people have been (systematically) killed by the hands of empires that rolled in before. Poland (having taking over half the Ukrainian refugees in by the way) would be an appropriate example. (‡ below)
    Putin is to blame, unless he's mindless like the Black Death or something.
    Ukraine won't be joining NATO ← Putin's main demand met, and has been for a bit now.
    I guess a good 4 million has fled, and some are now returning, including children.


    ‡ Piotrowski's (2005) estimates of Polish World War 2 casualties:
     
    Poland’s population in 1939:
——————————————————————————————
• Ethnic Poles:     22,700,000
• Jews:              3,400,000
• Other minorities:  9,000,000
——————————————————————————————
=                   35,100,000

Poland’s World War 2 population losses:
———————————————————————————————————————
• Jewish:           3,100,000
• Ethnic Poles:     2,000,000
• Other minorities:   500,000
———————————————————————————————————————
=                   5,600,000

Included in these losses:
———————————————————————————————————————————
• At German hands:                5,150,000
• At Soviet hands:                  350,000
• At Ukrainian Nationalist hands:   100,000
———————————————————————————————————————————
=                                 5,600,000


    I'm vaguely reminded of ...

  • Ukraine Crisis
    I never said Ukrainians shouldn't be asked, did I? But when it comes to something that affects Russia, or any other country, then I think it is proper to ask the people of that country as well.

    I don't see why Ukraine should matter more than Russia who has a much larger population.     — Apollodorus

    Bombing affects Ukrainians.
    Ukraine won't be joining NATO (main demand met, and has been for some time now).


    By the way, I hear that some of the 4 million refugees are returning to Ukraine.

    Everyone there wants to come home. — Oksana
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Kremlin's website has been on and off for a bit, maybe they're getting hit by hackers.
    Sure hope they don't cause any plane crashes.

    Russia’s Aviation Authority Switches Back to Pen and Paper After Huge Alleged Cyberattack (Apr 1, 2022)

  • Ukraine Crisis
    But according to NATO propaganda, it’s OK for the EU to rebuild and expand the Roman Empire, but not for Russia to resist EU expansion …. — Apollodorus

    How about asking the Ukrainians? About Ukraine, you know, where they live (and are now bombed)? About what they want?
  • Donald Trump (All General Trump Conversations Here)
    Donald Trump Finally Admits Defeat: 'I Didn't Win the Election' (Newsweek; Apr 5, 2022)

    Took a while. Some of the Trumpists stick to the conspiracy theory, though.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Victor Satzewich writes:

    Analysis: The Russian diaspora isn’t showing much support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (Mar 17, 2022)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Kremlinologist — Punshhh

    Kremlinology is actually a word and a thing. How about that. :)

    (seems a bit close to criminology but nevermind)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    You do know there's a global socialist movement don't you? — Isaac

    you should whip up a new thread, e.g. "The victims of capitalism", something like that

    Maybe this is your kind of thing?
    I'm thinking that differentiating socialism and communism is needed.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Seems like Russian forces are failing at combined arms ...



    ... and are instead leveling civilian targets only to be taken out by drones ...



    Bad, both because civilian targets are destroyed :fire: :death: (civilians killed, houses, McDonald's ruined), and because the Russian leaders send their troops in to become cannon fodder :death: (when they could be at home doing less destructive things and have a Vodka). Seeing someone blown to pieces is kind of disturbing either way.

    Rumors on the street will have it that the Ukrainian forces have been supplied with Switchblades, which might work well for them.

    Putin has gotten Russia into a bit of a quagmire, stubborn Ukrainians with guns, sanctions interrupting the economy, ... He may have the upper hand in a more strategic sense, but has apparently lost out more tactically per se.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    @StreetlightX, you should whip up a new thread, e.g. "The victims of capitalism", something like that.
    Could easily be both historical and ongoing.
    Pretty sure I could learn a thing or two anyway.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Russia Will End Cooperation on International Space Station Citing Sanctions (Newsweek; Apr 2, 2022)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Should be clear enough that Russia has the military resources and location to do whatever here. They've already leveled a number of Ukrainian areas, including civilian/residential. In that respect, they're on the offense, invading, shelling, strategizing, sending people fleeing, doing whatever, certainly not particularly worried about Ukraine (or anyone) invading Russia.

    The Russian forces can retreat, resupply, regroup, add troops/weapons, re-attack (including bomb from afar), change objectives, more or less as they see fit, and keep doing that (indefinitely). We've already seen some of that.
    The Ukrainians can't, it's their homes, in this respect they're on the defense, a target that's stuck whether on the move or not, despite external aid. Their efforts would have to be quite effective to deter the Kremlin, let alone Putin's vision.

    Hence Russia has the upper hand kind of perpetually, unless something changes. Putin doesn't really have to go to meetings or comply with much, plus they have an impressive amount of nuclear ☢ weaponry to boast (and intimidate) with.
    I suppose their worries per se are sanctions, economy, and losing face, ...?
  • Ukraine Crisis
    ↪Isaac
    , just scanned the page you posted.

    the [lower-yield] US warheads were not a direct threat to Russian security but were concerning nevertheless — Russia says alarmed by US deployment of low-yield nuclear missiles (Feb 6, 2020)

    Concerning for sure, but not as concerning as Russia having amassed up close to half the world's nuclear ☢ weaponry all by themselves (and threatened to use them), making Russia the top ☢-dog in the world. Plus violating other nations' airspaces + whatever. Talk about provoking and pushing others.

    Apart from China perhaps, North Korea is more or less everyone's concern.

    Putin held a ceremony at the Kremlin to welcome 23 new foreign ambassadors to Moscow — Russia says alarmed by US deployment of low-yield nuclear missiles (Feb 6, 2020)

    More of this, please. And quit the bombing already. Ukraine won't be joining NATO anytime soon.

    Russia's security concerns have likely increased after going down the warpath ("special military operation", if you're in Russia, by mandate).

    I don't personally think that strongman :strong: Putin is losing it or paranoid as such, but we'll see how far he can push, provoke, oppress, silence, strong-arm, bully, bomb, invade, posture, threat, ... :fire: I kind of expect a fair bit.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    Russia has violated other nations' airspaces on several occasions, and when their warplanes fly with transponders off they might jeopardize civilian traffic. Russia has accumulated up close to half the world's nuclear ☢ weaponry, and has postured readiness (threatened) to use them.

    Why don't European nations start building up nuclear arsenals to match Russia's? Oh wait, that'd be provocation. :D

    Some nations instead take an opportunity to exchange liquor.

    :strong: Putin → :down:
  • Ukraine Crisis
    In the US, some go all the way with this part ...

    especially of a biased or misleading nature, used to promote a political cause or point of view — Baden

  • Ukraine Crisis
    Behind enemy lines:

    :fire: Russian warship destroyed in occupied port of Berdyansk, says Ukraine (Mar 24, 2022)

    Tightening things up:

    :zip: Putin Signs Law On Jail Terms For 'Fake' News On State Actions Abroad (Mar 25, 2022)
  • Ukraine Crisis
    FYI: Maps: Tracking the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

    Rambling on from NATO membership, another of Putin's demands — Donetsk and Luhansk becoming two independent states — seems more contentious. In that respect, if that was to proceed, I'm thinking that all Ukrainians throughout be allowed to freely attain citizenship either way (and relocate when they can, without coercion obstruction reprisals threats or whatever, I mean). After all, they're the people on the ground here, not Londoners and Muscovites. Un/reasonable?

    On a related note, I think that some of the commenters (and I don't entirely absolve myself) tend to hold official Russian rhetoric to a standard of truthfulness, rationality and consistency to which it does not hold itself. — SophistiCat

    I'm admittedly guilty.
  • Ukraine Crisis
    No NATO membership for Ukraine ✓ (main demand met and has been for some time now)

    Where's Putin?

    LVIV, Ukraine (AP) — For a month now, Russian forces have repeatedly attacked Ukrainian medical facilities [...] with at least 34 assaults — War Crimes Watch: Russia's onslaught on Ukrainian hospitals (Mar 26, 2022)

    AP News is usually taken to be reliable. Declaring the report fake or the like would require something material.

    Yeah...not really...looking good.

    Meanwhile "We're open again!" :victory: :)
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