Blablabla, just to change subject while still implicitly proving that such agreements are not ornamental at all! Catastrophic!

Congrats for your epic fail, dude! — neomac

I go to some length to explain that agreements coordinate actions between willing participants, and also solve catch 22 situation where one party is willing only if another party is too.

In the case of Russia evaluating NATO-Ukraine footsie, it maybe well aware that US promises such as:

“We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO,” NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told a news conference, reading from a communique agreed at a summit of the pact’s 26 leaders in Bucharest.

“That is quite something,” he added. — Reuters

Are meaningless insofar as promises go. Maybe US has zero intention of ever letting Ukraine join NATO.

However, that Russia knows what promises from a more powerful state to a less powerless state are worth, it cannot know what the US actually intends or will do if the circumstances change.

You have simply strawmanned my position with conflating the ornamental nature of guarantee with the idea no one ever does what they promise.

Promises can be kept between nations, but because the promising party believed at the time of the agreement and continues to believe that it was a reasonable promise to make and in their interests to keep it. Adding "guarantee" or other flowery language is of minor consideration.

For example:

There's been this bizarre historical revisionism that Ukraine should have held out for "guarantees" rather than settle for "assurances" in the "Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances".

Since these "assurances" turned out to mean nothing, the thinking is that people knew that at the time.

But what's the substantive actual meaning of "assurances" ... is it really "means nothing"? Obviously not, at the time assurances was meaningful.

It's only since these assurances turned out to be meaningless that "assurances" have become a euphemism for "nice things people say sometimes" in international political analysis.

If the assurances turned out to be meaningful in 2014 when Ukraine first started complaining about the "commitments" not being kept, then people would not go around today saying these assurances were meaningless, they would point to US and other signatory actions as clear evidence of the meaning of the assurances.

If a new agreement is struck and called "The guarantees agreement" and then the day comes where whatever is guaranteed should be fulfilled ... and it's not, then "guarantee" would be the new euphemism for what people say because it sounded nice at the time.

The last clause states: "6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments."

Which, notice the actual promise is only to "consult" ... but as far as I know these parties didn't do even that. Well what exactly is the meaning of "commitments" if all you're actually promising to do is "consult" about questions concerning them?

Any new agreement will be in the exact ontological and epistemological and legal status as the "Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances".

The mistake was not "ah, damn, if only we held out for the word 'guarantee', then Russia could not have invaded."

The mistake was not navigating political reality since in a competent and non-delusional way and believing NATO's promises were meaningful from Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, rather than consider the possibility that NATO may not be able to offer meaningful protection ... at least not from the destruction that has been brought to Ukraine so far.

I NEVER MADE SUCH A CLAIM, YOU LIAR, quote where I did! I just claimed that "security guarantees" (or equivalent) are neither "ornamental" nor "meaningless" and that it’s rational for Zelensky to pursue them based on the current geopolitical and historical circumstances.
That is supported by the quotations I previously reported. — neomac

I don't have time for the rest of your post just now, but I'd like to point out the reading comprehension that, perhaps, you could spend some time in the meanwhile to reflect on.

What do I say, that you literally cite just above your reaction?

Now, if you're saying Zelensky knows that security guarantees are only ornamental fluff to promises that will only be kept if it suits the promising party to keep the promise (aka. a nominal but meaningless promise), then I'd be happy to hear that Zelensky isn't delusional on this point of international relations. — boethius

Key words: "If you're saying".

It's called "if" followed by a "then".

It was honestly unclear to me what your position has evolved into with all the goal post moving around.

So, if your position is A, then B.

You can clarify that your position is "not-A", which you have done.

As for your position, you literally cite as evidence for your position ... evidence that supports my position, such as international law is a voluntary thing (so obviously guarantees also voluntary, which is the opposite of guarantees).

All you're discovering is that "guarantees" is euphemism for "trust us bro" (as I've been explaining) and, sure, it can be reasonable for Zelensky to get whatever promises and statements of trust he can in a deal, but "guarantees" are purely ornamental. If the US goes back on its word in the future (such as make certain "assurances" it doesn't give a shit about now), Ukraine will have no recourse. If Ukrainians complain "but I thought it was guaranteed" ... what's the answer going to be from the neocon appreciation brigade on reddit defending the US's position? "All is fair in love and war," or maybe "life's not fair, take care of your own security" etc.

In addition, you are discovering the nominal world can be very different to the real world of actual substance.

For example, I sell you a lemon, I guarantee you it's sour. You want to be sure so ask for that guarantee in writing, as you want it actually guaranteed and for some crazy reasons if the lemon turns out not to be sour you'll suffer incredibly high damages.

So, I go and write a contract and I call it the "Boethius lemon super promise hyper guarantee" and in this contract I write clauses that explain I am not liable for anything.

You read it and explain I'm not guaranteeing anything with this contract, and I respond "but it's got guarantee right in the title of the contract, you're crazy."

What do we learn, that simply calling something a guarantee doesn't make it a guarantee. If there's zero consequence for me delivering a non-sour lemon or even no lemon at all, it maybe a nominal guarantee as it's a contract with guarantee in the contract but in the real world of actual substance it is not a guarantee as there's nothing to keep me to my word.

Guarantee in the context of agreements refers to some actual consequence for not delivering.

In this case of US guaranteeing something to Ukraine, no such consequence would be there, so no guarantee is there in actual substance of the real things in the world.

Now, maybe US keeps it's word anyways, but maybe not.

Again, think about things for a few seconds. If you ask me for that lemon, and I say I'll get it to you but maybe not, and you say "man, I really need to be sure, can you guarantee it" and I say "zero problems guaranteeing it, I guarantee you I'll get you that lemon, but of course maybe not, things could shake out that way" and then you say "that's not a guarantee then!!!" and then I say "but I literally just said I guarantee it to you!! ... just, with the added information that maybe not, because nothing is actually guaranteed."

This is the kind of confusion you get yourself into if you mixup nominal ornamental things with real things in the world. There is a difference between calling something a "guarantee" and that thing being a guarantee in some substantive way.

More appropriate term that describes reality would be that what diplomats call "security guarantees" are actually in the real world of substance "security reasons". They maybe reasons to accept the deal, they may even actually happen, but they are not guarantees in some substantive contractual sense of guarantee.

I am struck by how quickly our good friend boethius here is prompt to lose the plot, or change the goal post. First he says Ukraine is part of no collective, then that the UN -- which includes Ukraine -- does not define itself as a collective, and when proved wrong on it, he then segues into the UN not currently operating as a collective... Well, it does and it does not, depending. — Olivier5

Proving what? A "collective" (as defined by the dictionary) has collective interests and collective actions and policies.

The UN is mainly a diplomatic tool for different actual collectives (called nation states) to meet and try negotiate opposing (rather than collective) interests. Of course, from time to time and on some issues all interests align, or sufficiently so, and there's collective action on that point. But to say the UN brings the US, Russia, Ukraine, China, Iran etc. into one "collective" one unitary political body, is absurd.

For example, contract the "United Nations" with the "United States of America". True, they both have the word "United" in their name, and, true, they both bring together different states into interaction and some shared resources and some collective actions, they even both have some sort of leader. However, the United States of America in an actual collective providing actual collective security to it's member states, and the United Nations is very much a different thing.

Collective is not a good word to describe the United Nations and even if it was is a terrible example of a "collective" in the sense of "collective security" that Ukraine is apart of ... because Russia too is apart of the United Nations.

It's almost unbelievable that that detail is lost on you guys. Bringing up the UN as a potential "collective" in which to invoke "collective security" (the topic of discussion) is just completely absurd as not only is Russia a member of the same "collective" but Russia is a far more powerful member with a veto on whatever the UN even tries to do on topics of security.

And then you accuse others of losing the plot?

Did you read my answer to that question, re. the tanks? Maybe we can stop asking queestions that have been answered already. — Olivier5

You mean:

I would think that the reasons for this are that tanks cost a lost of money, are in short supply, and you don't want the enemy to get hold of them. — Olivier5

That you believe this is sufficient explanatory power?

For the airforce support I believe an additional issue would be related to avoid escalating the war. — Olivier5

Escalating the war to what? A war Ukraine can win? And if there going to win anyways, just barely, why not have them win sooner and save plenty of lives?

Your position is that Ukraine can and will win ... but just barely after a maximum amount of preventable Ukrainian suffering, because if they won an inch faster that would be an escalation?

Just because folks have opinions and share them here, does not make those a form of "parroting" of anyone. ssu and @SophistiCat have been critical of Zelensky after the Polish missile incident, and that is evidently at a variance with Ukrainian propaganda. You guys don't like it when we disagree with you, fair enough, but we are not parroting the enemies of the folks you are parroting. — Olivier5

Anyways, just so people are aware:

If his country is attacked, it is totally logical for him to try to get as much assistance. That's the urge for a no-fly-zone earlier in the war. And because of the nuclear deterrent, that possibility was totally out of the question. Now later a gaffe that he has backtracked seems have you and Isaac all over for many pages describing the wickedness of the Ukrainians. — ssu

Is from @ssu and not my description. If you cite someone citing someone else, you should put in the effort to format things so that's clear ... at least retain the default behaviour which is still to copy the person's name and a dash, so it's clear it's a citation (just can't tell when it started without additional effort put into make your post clear).

However, as I mention previously, I will go over the entire discussion when I have time to verify if indeed pro-Zelensky proponents aren't changing their positions to just reflect or defend what Zelensky or Ukrainian intelligence is saying at the moment.

If you had spy satellites, you probably wouldn't feel manipulated. — frank

What?

So... you're saying Zelensky is just stupid enough to lie to people who would know he's lying? So it's not a lie?

... Also, I don't have spy satellites, many other parties that jumped in to support Zelensky assuming he had some basis for what he was saying, also didn't have spy satellites.

You're saying manipulating everyone else who doesn't have spy satellites ... we just don't care about them (like the Kurds ... and Afghanis ... and Iraqis ... and Georgians etc.)?

But, even if we ignore everyone else, what if the US administration, who saw what happened with their satellites as you say they would, and saw it was a lie, but felt too invested in Zelensky to contradict him, so go along with the story. That's not manipulation?

Even more alarming, what if the US administration, being the only other party with any information on what happened, decided it was a great lie that Zelensky is telling, suits US "goals", and they push the lie too. This wouldn't be manipulation on Zelensky's part because he has co-conspirators?

Robber: "I didn't steal anything, you caught me red handed! Jeesh!! It's not robbing if the people you're trying to rob can stop you! Everyone knows that!!!!"

I think you're following Isaac in doing your best not to understand that when you act to preserve your life in the face of a lethal threat, your actions can't be condemned, even if your actions result in the death of your attacker. — frank

This is not the issue. Zelensky isn't literally on the battle field kungfooing or whatever.

Forget about Ukrainians for a moment, forget even about the collateral damage that can obviously be unjustifiable, focus for a moment on a simple question: Is it in our interest to accept Zelensky lying to us?

Even if I thought it was reasonable for Zelensky (from his point of view) to manipulate me for his own benefit ... is it in my benefit to be manipulated?

Zelensky probably will use everything at his disposal to secure his goals. Since it's a matter of self-preservation, it can't be condemned. We'll all do what we have to do to survive, and for many, that extends to the political entities we're parts of. — frank

@Isaac has pointed out the basic problem with your statement.

However, I think even more revealing is the underlining self-contradiction in this sort of apologetics for Zelensky.

For, shouldn't Europeans also do what it takes to survive? Which may require throwing Ukraine under the bus in a deal for Russian gas?

Now, imagine this was the self-interested and self-preserving action, for the sake of argument, would you maintain your position that it cannot be condemned? even the most viscous stab in the back (we can even go wild and imagine Ukrainians literally falling off of our aircraft as we high-tail our embassy staff and special forces the fuck out of there). It's self preservation after all.

Yet ... how would this square with the West's own Churchillian ideals of defending freedoms and things? Just doing and saying whatever we need to manipulate the Ukrainians and secure our goals? Sending arms to fight the Russians when it advances our goals, cutting a deal and abandoning the Ukrainians when the circumstances change.

Do we accept the (good, Western) Afghanis and (good, Western) Iraqis, and Kurds ... and Georgians, are only allies of convenience as they are foreign enough (some of them brown!) whereas Ukraine, because they have hot woman to a noble Western sensibility?, gets special treatment and we'll even pursue their goals at the cost of our own?

First, in our exchange, you wasted all occasions to quote where Zelensky used the word "precondition" which would be relevant to your argument. — neomac

Why would this be relevant to my argument? The word precondition was already being discussed, the point of discussion was if Zelensky's precondition to negotiate were reasonable or not.

If you want a citation of Zelensky literally using the word precondition, here you go:

"We agreed that the Ukrainian delegation would meet with the Russian delegation without preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River," he said in a statement. — Reuters

Zelensky demands Russian troops leave Ukraine as precondition to diplomacy — The Times of Isreal

How does citing Zelensky using the word precondition or journalist reporting on his preconditions relevant to the argument here?

What is relevant here is that the word precondition was already being discussed, that was the whole focus of my point you were clearly trying to rebut.

"Precondition" wasn't referred to deterrence means nor nuclear weapons (this is your misunderstanding), but to considering the available deterrence means as a rational ground for pursuing any kind of security agreement by geopolitical agents. In other words, I was referring to a rational requirement. — neomac

Again, look where you've moved the goal posts.

You start off with bait-and-switch the meaning of precondition, which you were obviously using for the reason that it tied into the debate that was ongoing, not some maverick "off-book" and "I don' give a shit about your dictionary and I make my own rules, here's a new meaning for this word that server no pragmatic purpose to just randomly invent now with no explanation."

Next, what do you explain here? Exactly what I describe, that in order to remove the original meaning from your statement to not admit saying something false and foolish, you are saying nothing at all. US and Soviet Union considered "available deterrence means" in making agreements ... and so did everyone else, including Ukraine, in joining various non-proliferation treaties.

All you're saying is "agents" reason about things. Obviously they do. Moreso giant institutions that run entire countries.

But that's simply obviously not the point you were making. In using the word "pre-condition" and emphasising that Ukraine is in a different nuclear status, you were clearly rebutting my position and supporting Zelensky's intransigence.

If you were just chiming into say that people reason about things, just in a pseudo-intellectual bullshit way of speaking with "geopolitical agents" and all, then you would have made that clear: you would have said "of course, having nuclear deterrence isn't a precondition for anything, and I'd never mention the idea, but Ukraine may reason themselves to a peace deal or then reason themselves to continue fighting, both conclusion could be potentially reasonable hypothetically given everything that should be considered in making these kinds of decisions." In other words, if you were stating the obvious you would have said you were stating the obvious and then maybe explain something not obvious that follows from that.

This argument is perfectly consequential and in contradiction to the claim that the military cooperation between Ukraine and the West is "zero meaningful" from a geopolitical point of view. This war is proving exactly the opposite of such spectacularly dumb claim of yours. — neomac

What the hell are you talking about?

My point is that any promise to Ukraine by the West is meaningless in itself. The promise would be fulfilled if, later, it suits these powers to fulfil the promise. If, later, it doesn't suit these powers to fulfil the promise then it won't be fulfilled. There's alignment for now (for some arms, but "tut, tut, tut get your dirty hands of the shiny shit"), I'm just pointing out that if that alignment ever went away (such as happened with the Kurds) then no piece of paper is going to matter.

An obvious reality you seem finally to agree with.

WHO ON EARTH IS TAKING SECURITY GUARANTEES IN THE CERTAINTY SENSE? CAN YOU QUOTE HIM? — neomac

“There is only one goal (from Russia): to destroy our independence. There’s no other goal in place. That’s why we need security guarantees. … And we believe we have already demonstrated our forces’ capability to the world.” — Zelensky, quoted by CNN

Now, if you're saying Zelensky knows that security guarantees are only ornamental fluff to promises that will only be kept if it suits the promising party to keep the promise (aka. a nominal but meaningless promise), then I'd be happy to hear that Zelensky isn't delusional on this point of international relations.

RUSSIA IS CLAIMED TO SEE AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT IN HAVING UKRAINE AND GEORGIA WITHIN NATO, THIS WAS NO ACTUAL NUCLEAR THREAT (BECAUSE THEY DIDN'T HAVE SUCH WEAPONS, AND THE MEMBERSHIP WASN'T IMMINENT) NOR - AS YOU COULD ARGUE - GUARANTEE IN THE SENSE OF CERTAINTY THAT RUSSIA WOULD BE NUKED AFTER UKRAINE JOINED NATO OR AFTER INVADING UKRAINE FOLLOWING THE UKRAINIAN NATO MEMBERSHIP. HOW DO YOU INTERPRET THIS BEHAVIOR IF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS ARE JUST AN ORNAMENTAL AND NOTHING CERTAIN? — neomac

Russia doesn't only cite nuclear weapons as a threat from NATO, but forward deployed missile bases.

Tangible weapons systems in the real world owned and operated by NATO that require NATO membership to be deployed in your country.

Now, there was a de facto understanding after the ascension of the Baltic's into NATO that certain systems wouldn't be forward deployed in order to reduce tensions and the possibility of accidents.

NATO then forward deployed exactly those missile systems saying "something, something, Iran" even though that made no sense. Whether this was breaking a promise or not, clearly NATO's policy is to forward deploy threatening weapons systems.

The deployment of actual weapons systems is what matters.

If the Baltics were nominally in NATO but hosted no NATO infrastructure, then, yes, this isn't really a threat as no NATO attacks could be launched given this lack of NATO infrastructure to do so. It's a reasonable compromise to maintain a reasonable defensive posture: we won't forward deploy to the Baltics as we have no intention to attack you, but we will come to their aid if they are attacked.

Of course, once you do forward deploy military systems you are by definition threatening the people in range of those systems and the logic of a defensive posture goes away.

The apologetics logic about this is that Russia shouldn't view these forward deployed systems as a threat, even if there's no other reason for it, because in NATO's heart of hearts they're not "out to get Russia", that's paranoid delusion talk.

But, if the first reaction of the West to this war in Ukraine is that it's an opportunity to weaken Russia, a geopolitical rival ... then obviously NATO was indeed threatening Russia all along.

Now, being threatened by real weapons systems in the real world does not then justify any action, but it does make this story of "unprovoked attack" absurd propaganda. If you threaten me and I punch you in the face, I could definitely still be in the wrong and be convicted of assault, but it wasn't unprovoked.

But to focus on the central issue we've been discussing:

HOW DO YOU INTERPRET THIS BEHAVIOR IF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS ARE JUST AN ORNAMENTAL AND NOTHING CERTAIN? — neomac

I have said adding the word "guarantee" to a promise is ornamental. The texts of international agreements still matter for what they actually do: coordinate actions of willing participants.

If there's a peace deal and Russia wants to follow it, then what the peace deal says matters a great deal as they'll need to read it to implement it, and likewise other parties will see their actions and compare it to the deal to evaluate if the Russians are indeed intending to stick to peace (rather than attack again or then just not follow some parts of the deal as they don't feel like it, perhaps motivating others to not follow their parts of the deal that they only want to follow if Russia is doing their part).

This coordination of willing participants to a deal is not ornamental.

More importantly, real weapons systems in the real world is not ornamental.

The military relevance of Ukraine joining NATO would be forward deployment of NATO weapons systems to Ukraine, which would then be there fore decades and under conditions that today we cannot predict.

An analogy is that if I point a gun at you but assure you I don't intend to fire it. Well, even if that were true, maybe the situation changes and you want to fire it later, or then someone jumps out of a giant novelty cake in surprise and it startles you into firing it.

The NATO apologetics on this issue is that NATO weapons systems aren't a threat to anyone: obviously they are.

THE MEMBERSHIP WASN'T IMMINENT — neomac

But to focus on another error in analysis. Everyone says that the footsie between NATO and Ukraine, even if we do see NATO policy is to forward deploy under stupid pretext (like "Iran" needs to be defended from the Baltics ... no closer NATO country or US / NATO base to Iran is convenient for that purpose), didn't matter because Ukraine wasn't going to join NATO anytime soon.

How would the Russians actually know what's imminent or not?

And, take a step back and think about this form of apologetics, as it is premised on the idea that it would be justified to attack Ukraine if NATO promises to Ukrainian weren't meaningless ornaments.

However, I have not described promises in international relations as meaningless ornaments, only embellishing or trying to "lock in" the promise is, and can only be, ornamental. Promises are meaningful as people may actually intend to carry out the promise, and if that is the case then the exchange of promises coordinates further cooperative action ... just in no way guarantees things stay that way nor if one's belief in other people's declared intentions turns out to be a good idea in hindsight.

But what's asked in this apology is that we must view Russia's concerns about NATO weapons systems in Ukraine as unfounded and foolish, because we must obviously know that NATO's promises to Ukraine are meaningless.

But, if NATO, UKraine, Russia, and everyone else knows the promises from NATO to Ukraine are totally meaningless (of friendship and partnership and joining NATO presumably in a useful way before and not after being invaded and significantly harmed) ... what was the purpose of those promises in the first place other than simply to provoke Russia? Promises aren't going to happen, everyone knows that, so why make the promises?

Now, what we should demand of Russia in interpreting such information is one topic, but clearly if the only explanation available is an intent to provoke a war, we can certainly all agree that the NATO-Ukraine footsie game was of criminal intent on NATO's part: would not and could not protect Ukraine, only meant to provoke a war at the expense of Ukraine.

This is a pretty ridiculous canard, even by your standards. Nobody here repeats Ukrainian intelligence service material or whatever Zelensky says. — Olivier5

I have zero problem reading the entire thread and verifying your claim. Also, keep in mind that apologising for Zelensky is also apart of it ... which we just went through an example of:

If his country is attacked, it is totally logical for him to try to get as much assistance. That's the urge for a no-fly-zone earlier in the war. And because of the nuclear deterrent, that possibility was totally out of the question. Now later a gaffe that he has backtracked seems have you and Isaac all over for many pages describing the wickedness of the Ukrainians. — ssu

If Zelensky lied or had delusional requests (like a no-fly zone) then we're asked to just understand that he's fighting a war and doing whatever, zero expectations to make sense. If he's caught in a lie ... that's just a "gaffe".

I would think that the reasons for this are that tanks cost a lost of money, are in short supply, and you don't want the enemy to get hold of them. — Olivier5

How does this make any sense whatsoever? Again, exactly the apologetics for NATO policy I just described to avoid the inconvenient truth.

First, tanks are not in short supply.

[quote="List of currently active United States military land vehicles
;https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_currently_active_United_States_military_land_vehicles"]M1 Abrams – 5,000 active use. Approx. 3,000 stored[/quote]

And that's just the US tanks ... doesn't seem like tanks are in short supply.

Second, even if the tanks were in the short supply, one of the foundational justifications for arming Ukraine is so that Ukraine fights the Russians so we don't have to. So, if this was really the policy, you'd want to send tanks to do that fighting.

So you think NATO countries should support Ukraine with fighter jets and tanks? I mean, that's an option worth considering. — Olivier5

The question here is, if the support to Ukraine really is genuine, why hasn't that happened since day one of the war?

Western political leaders keep saying their objective is to support Ukraine with "whatever they need" to defeat the Russians.

If we both agree fighter jets and tanks would be useful in that effort, and training is only a temporary problem and totally irrelevant as the war could still be on years or decades from now, why hasn't NATO already started those programs to train, supply, workout the logistics for tanks and planes months ago?

Is my pointing this out anti-Ukrainian?

Or, it is just the reality that the West is using Ukraine for its own purposes, not Ukraine's purposes, and those purposes don't include actually defeating the Russians (otherwise their actions would be consistent with such a goal).

If that's the truth, objectives cannot be attained through military force (as NATO is holding back the support required to do that), then the alternative to indefinite war or a war that you lose, is compromise and make peace with the Russians.

What I have issue with is people who accept NATO isn't really supporting Ukraine enough to win (obviously we agree here jets and tanks are nice to have) ... but also support indefinite fighting or uncompromising diplomatic positions.

You can support an uncompromising diplomatic position, but that only makes sense (for Ukrainians) if you believe Ukraine can win, and therefore believe NATO is going to support that. But holding back weapons systems for no reason (if the goal is to actually defeat the Russians) is incompatible with the premise.

Thanks for the laugh. You’re the voice of Moscow here. Of course you are anti-Ukrainian. — Olivier5

Essentially your position, along with the other Zelenkyites, is that support for Ukraine means support for Ukrainian propaganda, and especially whatever Zelensky says. If he contradicts himself (which he does often) then it is incumbent upon us to understand why Zelensky would want us believing something one day and the opposite the next day. If he gets caught lying (such as making accusations without justification; such as these missiles, existence of Nazi's sporting the black sun in his entourage, or the basic historical facts leading up to the war) then we must understand that of course he was motivated to lie to us! It was to his advantage for us to believe whatever he says and he's fighting a war!

However, does just parroting whatever Zelensky or Ukrainian intelligence service say, benefit Ukraine?

Let's take an example. One "pro-Russia" view I was accused of early on, was my conclusion that Javelins and other man-portable-weapons would not be enough to win any major offensive or counter-offensive, that armour is needed for this kind of warfare. At the time, NATO had a no-armour policy, and the pro-NATO and pro-Ukrainian position was that of course Javelins are enough.

Now, many moons pass and it goes without saying that Ukraine needs armour to accomplish anything on the battlefield.

Well, what did the obvious lie (NATO certainly knew as well as I you need armour for this kind of fighting on this kind of terrain) accomplish?

Thousands of Ukrainians dead that maybe would be still alive if armour was supplied sooner.

And, despite it being now completely obvious to everyone that Ukraine needs armour to compete on the battlefield, NATO still maintains the policy of no NATO produced tanks ... well, why is that? NATO just want Ukrainians to die when superior NATO tanks could save them?

The excuse is that NATO tanks are different and it would require training ... ok, well, train them then. Considering this war could go on for years, the time it would take to train Ukrainians on NATO tanks doesn't seem all that relevant. Had things got started in February, seems to me that it would be quite easy to field several companies of Leopard 2 or M1 Abrams tanks. Sure it takes time, but it doesn't take more than 8 months to to train a tank crew, especially if they already have military and tank experience.

Of course, it doesn't feel good that NATO is holding back weapons and training, getting Ukrainians killed that could have had better protection, all while claiming to be fully supporting Ukraine's fight. But that's the obvious truth.

Worse, the substitute for NATO built tanks is Soviet built tanks, which NATO has been scrounging left and right to throw into Ukraine. Some of these tanks are incredibly outdated and basically a coffin on wheels. Of course, better than nothing, but not only is it simply hypocritical for NATO to hold back the good stuff, but what happens when Ukraine just runs out of tanks entirely?

The day Ukraine simply doesn't have tanks and Ukrainian lines start to crumble because of that, wouldn't be the optimum time for NATO to sigh and finally provide the NATO built tanks and training.

Pointing the policy is not genuine on NATO's part, is not anti-Ukrainian, it's just reality.

Now, the apologetics for this reality is that NATO doesn't want to provoke Russia too much, so can't "go crazy" and just supply anything that would be useful to fight a war and accomplish the stated objectives (we're not even going to talk about F-16s ... much less F-35s) ... but why would these weapons systems be too provocative? Obviously because it might allow Ukraine to obviously win ... so, what's the policy? Clearly not let Ukraine actually win.

What's the consequence of propping up Ukraine enough to fight but not with? A very large amount of suffering in the pursuit of objectives that cannot be accomplished.

Nonsense.

If his country is attacked, it is totally logical for him to try to get as much assistance. That's the urge for a no-fly-zone earlier in the war. And because of the nuclear deterrent, that possibility was totally out of the question. Now later a gaffe that he has backtracked seems have you and Isaac all over for many pages describing the wickedness of the Ukrainians.

It would be typical of Russian propaganda to say Zelensky has "in mind to go all the way to nuclear war". As if he was the instigator of this war. — ssu

Ah, ok, making false accusations in the context of a delusional "urge" to put the world on a path to nuclear war in order to get more assistance, is just a:

gaffe — ssu

Nothing to see here. All completely:

logical — ssu

The Nazi thing was and is a ruse. — jorndoe

Yes it was.

But notice how eagerly it was employed even on this thread by some very active participants. — ssu

Over 8 months ago I posted several reports by Western media (made before the war) investigating the Nazi's in Ukraine.

Are these Western journalists working for Putin? Just part of the ruse you're talking about?

If it's not a ruse ... well what is the ruse?

Why didn't yourselves or anyone who thinks the Nazi's aren't a problem explain why these reports aren't alarming, 8 months ago or anytime since?

At the time, the opposing view was that yes these Nazi's were a problem, there just wasn't enough of them to justify an invasion. I asked at the time, and several times since, what "enough Nazi's" would be; as to say there's not enough Nazi's with not enough power to justify invasion, implies some theory and analysis of where the line of too-many-Nazi's is and that the facts point to Ukraine being on the not-enough side of that line.

A simple question one would presumably need to answer to support Ukraine is fighting a just war, rather than using an unjust war (started in 2014 against separatist who have a right to self determination same as Ukraine) to build a fascist regime where all their political opposition is banned.

But, maybe you just forgot to respond to my comment and these reports I posted 8 months, and just require a friendly reminder to do so now:

The backlash is people getting into severe cognitive dissonance which disrupts the war horny trance like state they were in previously, when they encounter the fact the "neo-Nazi" problem isn't some fringe skinheads in some seedy bar, but a whole institution.

Which, please pay attention to the "black sun" which doesn't even have any apologist "it's just a rune" or "ancient Sanskrit symbol" whatever explanation, but literally created by the SS for the SS. — boethius

And also discover, at least the US and Canada (... maybe not other NATO members like Germany, who are the experts on neo-Nazi's after all and arbitrate whether they exist or not in today's media landscape) exposed to be breaking their own laws, which was military aid was contingent on irregular forces not doing any fighting or getting any weapons or ammunition ... which journalists could just go debunk in like, a single day's investigation? — boethius

And discover ... that when people talk about this problem going back to 2014 ... there's times and BBC reportings on this very thing: — boethius

January First, is one of the most important days in their callender. It marks the birth of Stepan Bandera, the leader of the Ukrainian partisan forces during the second world war.

The rally was organized by the far right Svoboda Party. Protests marched amidst a river of torches, with signs saying "Ukraine above all else".

But for many in Ukraine and abroad, Bandera's legacy is controversial. His group, the organization of Ukrainian Nationalists sided with Nazi German forces [but fortunately we have modern Germany to tell us there's no connection!] before breaking with them later in the war. Western Historians also say that his followers carried out massacres of Polish and Jewish civilians.

[... interview with a guy explaining the importance of Stepan Bandera's birthday party ]

Ukraine is a deeply divided country, however, and many in its East and South consider the party to be extremist. Many observers say rallies like today's torch light march only add to this division [really?!?! you don't say...]. — BBC

Or discover this one which interviews the FBI talking about these terrorists training with Azov ... but ... wait, "the war on terror" doesn't extend to white terrorists training "oversees".

And has the quote (recorded on video) from one of the recruiters: — boethius

We're Aryans, and we will rise again — totally not a neo-Nazi, according to the German government

But ... the president is Jewish and is allied with these forces, who don't even hate Jews all that much! So obviously you can have Nazi's if their friendly Nazi's (to your side). — boethius

This one's just adorable. — boethius

The UN is not a collective and doesn't define itself like that:

The United Nations is an international organization founded in 1945. Currently made up of 193 Member States, the UN and its work are guided by the purposes and principles contained in its founding Charter.
— boethius

The UN Charter, which starts with: — Olivier5

Key word:

guided — the UN

Not "bound to" or "for sure going to happen".

Or, in other words:

The code is more what you'd call 'guidelines' than actual rules. — Captain Barbossa

It's a nice charter the UN has there, very pretty, I honestly wish I had a charter just as pretty.

But how does the UN actually work (what it actually is) in it's own words:

the one place on Earth where all the world’s nations can gather together, discuss common problems, and find shared solutions that benefit all of humanity. — UN about page

Key word is "gather", making the UN more of a "gathering" than a collective action organisation, at least how they put it.

But, for the topic at hand, the UN is the worst possible example ... for, whatever you want to call it, Russia has a Veto, so it's pretty unlikely the UN will come to Ukraine's aid of "collective security" of the UN "collective", if you insist on calling it that anyways.

And, keep in mind I am not an anti-Ukrainain advocate. I don't like Zelensky, that's for sure, but I've made my position very clear that what I have issue with is NATO supplying arms to Ukraine in a drip feed manner that results in maximum loss of life, trauma, economic destruction for Ukrainians. Now, it harms some Russian soldiers too, and this is purported as a justification for the policy, but I disagree with that justification.

I'd be a lot happier if Ukraine did actually have real allies, was actually part of this "collective security" Zelensky is talking about, that there was a giant Cuban missile crisis standoff between the US and Russia before the war and some solution worked out that avoided war, using actual NATO power as leverage.

Problem is US and company simply didn't care about Ukraine at the time, and wouldn't have A. the balls and B. the "national self interest" to carry out such a policy before the war to the benefit of Ukrainians.

It was in the "national self interest" to keep teasing Ukraine about eventual NATO membership for the West's own purposes knowing full well it would never happen and the policy was not "charity", as some may call it, to Ukraine.

Sending arms after the war starts and hiding behind the "but, but, but the nukes" as an excuse to not let our "friend" Ukraine into our little club, despite flying their flag on our lawns, avatars and prestigious buildings as if we cared, is cowardice and not "standing up to Russia". Our policy may indeed harm Russia (though this is not "guaranteed"), but whether Russia is in fact harmed or not in the long run, the costs to Ukrainians (and poor people's around the world due to the knock-on consequences) suffered for our policy is absolutely enormous.

P.S.
I re-claim all I wrote, word by word: — neomac

Yes, go ahead and read your own words:

the deterrence means they both had (but Ukraine doesn’t have!), and this was pre-condition for the kind of agreements they could rationally pursue. — neomac

"pre-condition for the kind of agreements" and "but Ukraine doesn’t have!"

You are making a "pre-condition" difference between Ukraine and the US and Soviet Union. Why you use the word "pre-condition". You are simply so ignorant of international relations that you were simply unaware that non-nuclear powers, including Ukraine, "rationally pursued" in your pseudo-intellectual-bullshit way of speaking, the same agreements, so obviously having nuclear weapons was not a precondition for pursuing these kinds of agreements (the reality is in direct contradiction to your claim).

Any "rational agent" that was actually aware they were not describing a precondition related to the result of negotiating an agreement, would then obviously clarify that: followed by an actual meaningful point; such as: "Of course, the agreements between the US and Soviet Union weren't of a kind that having nuclear weapons was a precondition, but here's an example of such an agreement that a nuclear power would rationally pursue but a non-nuclear power like Ukraine wouldn't rationally pursue--since if I don't even have one example for my hypothetical ... I'd look pretty foolish ... almost, but not as quite as foolish as changing my position to basically describe how decisions are made generally speaking: pursuing something you want for some reason and also considering the situation and what you know about it."

You'd say "of course Ukraine and many other nations don't have nuclear weapons and pursued the same agreements, but 'thinking about it' is what I mean is a preconditon to agreeing; both the US, the Soviet Union and everyone else thought about nuclear weapons, wherever they are, before agreeing to the same kind of agreements; there's no meaningful difference I am pointing to."

But that's obviously not your point, your point is obviously that the US and the Soviet Union could enter some kinds of agreements contingent on actually having nuclear weapons and it would be irrational if they didn't have nuclear weapons, making it a precondition which is why you literally say precondition, and non-nuclear powers would therefore not pursue those kinds of agreements as they lack the precondition to pursue those kinds of agreements as rational agents, at least as they exist in your head.

As that's exactly what you say. You even emphasise this difference with an exclamation mark: "but Ukraine doesn’t have!" If what Ukraine didn't have made no difference (to the kinds of agreements it could rational pursue), you would have said "but Ukraine doesn’t have! but of course that doesn't matter for these kinds of agreements we're talking about!!"

I'm implying that if there is an unfortunate accident, let's say Russian aircraft shoots down a NATO aircraft of vice versa, things won't automatically escalate. — ssu

We agree here. If we are only considering Zelensky lying to us; I think what matters is the intention. Zelensky's intention is clearly to escalate tensions between nuclear powers in a way that he certainly has in mind may go all the way to nuclear war; either as a desirable thing or then just a risk he's willing to take.

An act of criminal defamation and fraud with intended damages.

Certainly Zelensky is so delusional as to think his words matter outside what is convenient to his backers, but I don't think we should minimise the intended consequences of his actions.

What you describe, if true, simply puts into sharp relief the extent of Zelensky's delusions, which we should take into consideration in our analysis that Ukraine is lead by an out of control maniac willing to cause extreme damages on false pretences and lying to us.

You're right, we should be very worried about what damages he can practically achieve out-of-the-blue given his unstable and delusional mental state, thinking two polish citizens killed by a missile could be anything more than raising a few eyebrows even if it was Russia. Now that he's discovered this particular plan doesn't work, and no one cares what he has to say about it, we should be worried about what reckless and damaging options are within his grasp.

- I said nowhere that I used the word precondition as Zelensky. — neomac

The thread is discussing Zelensky and his preconditions for dozens of pages. I write my views about it, which you then respond to in a way perfectly consistent with the discussion so far as well as what precondition means in the discussion so far and also in the dictionary.

Only after your point is wrong do you go on an endless "axchually" diatribe explaining how you use the word differently to make an empty point.

It's the most boring, bad faith, cowardly way to debate: retroactively dilute the meanings of words to most the goal posts of your claim to something so trivial and tautological it is not wrong ... but also just dumb if that was actually your original point and you're not lying about it now.

But you seem to take yourself for a clever chap, and it's far more clever to lie than to just be an idiot.

For your new story about the word to make any make sense at all, you're asking us to believe you were simply not following the discussion and just-so-happened to use the word in a different sense to make an empty point about how people generally make decisions (taking into account the situation; in this case who has nuclear weapons and who doesn't, although of course having nuclear weapons isn't an actual precondition for anything we've talking about as people without nuclear weapons do the same things).

Unfortunately for you what I claimed is very much consequential wrt what I argued since the beginning (and you misunderstood) and in line with standard understanding of international relations as applied to Ukraine:
Rasmussen characterized the proposed security pact as part of a long-term answer to the West’s long-standing challenge with Russia, rather than as an act of charity to Ukraine, as Washington tries to pivot more resources to geopolitical competition with China. “If we get this right, the security guarantees to Ukraine could fix the Russia problem, because it is in the interest of the U.S. to have a strong and stable Eastern European partner as a bulwark against Russian attacks.”
Volker said the best way to secure Ukraine over the long term was to focus on the country’s eventual accession into NATO, rather than working out an interim option. “It’s good to have this [Kyiv Security Compact] as an alternative that people can chew on,” said Volker, who also served as U.S. special envoy to Ukraine. “But when you start stacking it against actual NATO membership, and you start considering this as a possibility at a time when Russia will have been defeated and accepted to live within its own borders, NATO is better.” — neomac

Do you even understand what you are reading?

This is a proposal exactly in the understanding of international relations I've described: whatever the US does, now or in the future, is because it's in the US interest and no Ukraine. There's no charity towards Ukraine now nor in the future.

So first of all, what's the corollary to his idea? Well, if his theory turns out to be wrong for whatever reason, then the US would cease supporting Ukraine, and look out for number 1 as it always does.

You can also see clearly the ornamental nature of guarantee. For, if it stopped being in the US interest to carry out this plan, maybe the dust settles and Russia offers a good deal to keep Ukraine out of NATO and to cease arming it, the basic premise of the entire proposal is the US is going to do that: the only way for Ukraine to benefit from interaction with the US is if Ukraine's interest aligns with the US' interest and here's an idea for that in the long term. Consequence? If this alignment of interest were to break down for any reason, Ukraine would not be able to rely on these "guarantees" and would discover that the word guarantee in this context is purely ornamental.

"If we get this right, the security arrangements to start and are in no way guaranteed down the line to Ukraine could fix the Russia problem," is the exact same meaning as "guaranteed" in the context. Diplomats and political analysts like calling them guarantees, as it seems nicer.

As for the theory itself ... it's just really stupid.

Even according the author, you could only finalise this plan at "a time when Russia will have been defeated and accepted to live within its own borders, NATO is better".

But if Russia has accepted to live within its own borders after a long and bloody war and eventual "defeat", in some sense that doesn't involve actual defeat in Ukraine v Russia, then Ukraine can be slipped into NATO as Russia will be so weak as to be unable to oppose it.

However, if Russia has accepted to live within its own border ... why would it be "in the interest of the U.S. to have a strong and stable Eastern European partner as a bulwark against Russian attacks."

Why would a nation that has accepted to live within its own borders attack anyone?

But, I'm sure you have some new boring diatribe explaining how this proposal is self contradictory and stupid ... if words mean what they they say in the dictionary!!! But they obviously don't ever!!!

No. Even at the time there was no media panic. The out-of-the-blue engagement just raised eyebrowse. — ssu

So you would agree that Russia could employ nuclear weapons in Ukraine "out-of-the-blue" with zero fear of any US response.

... And you'd even make the stronger claim that our media wouldn't even be all too worked up about it, no worries, certainly no reason to panic, just raise some eyebrows at best?

As if?

The UN? OSCE? WTO?

Or is it that artificial countries run by neonazis aren't part of a collective? :smirk: — ssu

If also want to change the meaning of words around to make boring discussion, be my guest.

"Collective" is a strong word in political analysis, and Zelensky is clearly using it in exactly that very strong way of a collective strong enough to act in common military defence. "Collective security is under attack" is Zelensky's words.

Of course, he certainly would like to be part of the collective he's talking about, but isn't, and obviously you know that. Zelensky know's that too, so the next best thing would be being able to tell NATO what do do, which he tries in his statement.

But, even saying the obvious:

The UN is not a collective and doesn't define itself like that:

The United Nations is an international organization founded in 1945. Currently made up of 193 Member States, the UN and its work are guided by the purposes and principles contained in its founding Charter.

The UN has evolved over the years to keep pace with a rapidly changing world.

But one thing has stayed the same: it remains the one place on Earth where all the world’s nations can gather together, discuss common problems, and find shared solutions that benefit all of humanity. — UN about page

Certainly capable of collective action, but through this process of gathering together, discussing common problems and finding solutions.

The OSCE literally describes itself as a forum:

The OSCE is a forum for political dialogue — OSCE

And the WTO is quite clearly about trading and not any sort of collective action.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) is the only global international organization dealing with the rules of trade between nations. At its heart are the WTO agreements, negotiated and signed by the bulk of the world’s trading nations and ratified in their parliaments. The goal is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably and freely as possible. — WTO

Your examples are far from describing themselves as "collectives", much less any kind of collective that has mutual security and it would make sense to say "attack on collective security".

Of course, you can always join the game of bait-and-switch the meaning of words in order to say nothing and try to bore other participants out of participation. Does the UN involve a "collection" of nations, yes, is that collection a "collective" connoting a pretty strong political bond, far beyond a forum of dialogue, and presumed collective action? No.

Again, Oxford languages as the first result in searching "define:collective"

collective
/kəˈlɛktɪv/
adjective
done by people acting as a group.
"a collective protest"
noun
a cooperative enterprise.
"the exhibition showcases the work of art collectives from more than 20 countries" — Search engine search for Define Collective

Quote whatever you think was my original claim so I can claim it again and then you explain its meaning to me, dude. — neomac

I have little doubts you're actually in such a self-delusion, perhaps on some level vaguely remembering your original point and thinking it was a good one, but now completely within an emotional state that you believe you're rewriting your memories of this conversation is a "good trick" and you deserve a medal or something.

It's extremely boring, but I will entertain it further as my primary purpose on this forum is to develop methods against bad faith debate. Just boringly repeating your delusions is a common bad faith debate tactic, so let continue.

To cite the point under consideration again:

This is just foolish. At no point did either side threaten the other with a first strike nuclear launch if they broke or pulled out of any agreement.
The basis of diplomatic resolutions between the Soviet Union and the US was that each side saw it was in their best interest to avoid a large scale nuclear war, and each side was able to believe the other side believed that too, so some agreements could be reached.
— boethius

You misunderstood my claim. I was referring precisely to the following condition: “each side saw it was in their best interest to avoid a large scale nuclear war”. The best interest of both US and Soviet Union was calculated by taking into account the deterrence means they both had (but Ukraine doesn’t have!), and this was pre-condition for the kind of agreements they could rationally pursue. — neomac

Now, unless you're now claiming to have zero reading comprehensions skills, of your own words or anyone else's, at this point in the debate the word "precondition" had been the focus of discussion for several pages with a clear meaning; Zelensky uses the word and everyone in the discussion was using the word in exactly the same way, exactly how the dictionary describes it.

So, if you want to say now that you didn't read any of that, just happened to drop into the discussion completely randomly to say absolutely nothing, and just "accidentally" used the word precondition but in an unusual and meaningless way without any intention to reference anything in the debate you were joining, yes, zero reading comprehension would be one explanation. But, in that case you're unlikely to be able to comprehend your lack of reading comprehension through reading. It's also unlikely as you've been engaged in this discussion for a while, and clearly know the bare minimum of "what words mean" in order to take part.

The issue under discussion is "precondition" for negotiation (such as "trusting Putin" or "security guarantees" etc.). You are clearly a partisan to Zelensky jumping in to defend his claims to require preconditions to be met to negotiate, contradicting my claims to the contrary.

Your point is clear, Zelensky's preconditions can make sense even if the deals between the US and Soviet Union are a counter example (on the issue of trust), because there is a difference between them and Ukraine. They have Nuclear Weapons "but Ukraine doesn’t have!"

Which is a meaningful argument. Would make sense (if it was true) as a rebuttal to my claim, that there is a critical difference in the counter example and the situation at hand, supporting Zelensky's insistance on "precondition".

Now, you've moved the goal posts from "pre-condition" all the way to a tautology that in a deal about nuclear weapons the US and the Soviet Union took into account nuclear weapons (the idea, who has them, etc.) just like every other state, nuclear power or not, would do exactly the same, and actually having nuclear weapons was obviously not a precondition to agreeing to the deals that the US, Soviet Union and most non-nuclear states also agree to.

If you didn't think you were making a meaningful point, you'd make it clear that non-nuclear states of course "rationally pursue" the same kinds of deals and "not-having" nuclear weapons is a precondition for doing so (in the way you are using term), and that your use of "pre-condition" means absolutely nothing as the contrary to the precondition in question may result in the exact same actions, which is not what a precondition is (how it's described in the dictionary, how Zelensky uses it, how we were using it in this discussion about Zelensky's use of the term, until you retroactively invented a completely unusual and bizarre meaning that is obviously a lie, and boils down to the the tautology of a "a factor under consideration").

But, anyone who is actually a fan of reading comprehension can clearly see that the structure and meaning of your original claim was that having nuclear weapons was a precondition to enter agreements with untrusted parties and, therefore, it's not "rational to pursue" doing the same if you don't have nuclear weapons.

The intended purpose of your statement is to defend Zelensky's various preconditions as "rational to pursue" given Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons. An argument you continue to make, clearly arguing Zelensky understandably is going to want guarantees in any deal and taking issue with my claim that any "guarantee" will be purely ornamental (perhaps a nice ornament to have, but ornament non the less).

The original meaning is clear and it clearly serves an important function in your overall position that security guarantees are a "rational" precondition for Zelensky to seek out in any peace deal; whereas the US and the Soviet Union didn't require such guarantees in their various peace making dealings because they already had nuclear weapons.

Your original rebuttal to my claim makes perfect sense to support your position and serves a clear roll in the argumentation structure you've developed.

The problem you've encountered is that your position is false: nuclear weapons are not a precondition to enter agreements about nuclear weapons and, more importantly, security guarantees do not exist and cannot be invented to satisfy Zelensky's desire for guarantees (even if we can easily agree he'd want them if they could and do exist and provided to him in any agreement and, even better, as a precondition to even start discussing an agreement; just as we can rationally want a lot of things that don't exist or can't happen or then so unlikely to not-happen that it is functionally the same as can't happen; impossible desires that are actually completely critical to decision making, as often we do not know what is possible or not and to check the feasibility of something, that we'd want it if it were possible, is generally a "precondition" to going and checking, otherwise why would we care? The exception being when we desire it not to be true, as it would present a risk to us, but we go check the feasibility to evaluate our risk mitigation; but this is really the exact same thing that our desire is something not-be-true even it maybe or actually is true, and we are still desiring "A" despite its impossibility, just A is best described as a "not-B" and A is impossible because B is actually true).

The reason to believe the peace deal will work is if one believes things in the real world do and will continue to motivate all the key parties to follow the deal, and will have little to do with what the deal actually says (because, as you've pointed out yourself, international law is "voluntary based" system). The wording of the deal maybe necessary to coordinate willing participants, and some plans are better than others, but what the wording of the deal will not accomplish is keep any party to their word if they decide it's better not to (such as the US, EU, Ukraine, Russia).

Now, the boring response to explaining the obvious to you again will be "Yes! both nuclear and non-nuclear states rationally pursued the exact same agreements, but I was actually talking about counter-factual agreements that didn't happen but could happen that maybe nuclear states might pursue only because they have nuclear weapons and non-nuclear states wouldn't pursue because they don't have nuclear weapons, we can imagine the difference in nuclear status resulting in difference of diplomatic outcomes! The 'pre-condition' I pointed out, although not an actual pre-condition, could nevertheless be a condition that can be different and lead to different decision making outcomes."

Aka: "people take information into account in making decisions, and different configurations of information can lead to different decisions, even under the same rational framework; I have discovered, after hundreds of pages of discussing diplomacy and warmaking, a basic description of the decision making process: people have information and make decisions, and the information, like if you have nuclear weapons or not, is taken into account in making decisions. Do I get a philosophy medal now?"

Like "pre-condition" I guess. BTW "clear" in the sense that is obvious to you or in the sense that we should really care about? — neomac

Yes, precondition is also a pretty clear meaning, just like attack.

If you say A is a precondition for B, the meaning is not-A isn't compatible with B ... it was a precondition so it should definitely be there for there to be B.

Saying A is a precondition for B but likewise not-A is also a precondition for B, that's the exact opposite of the meaning of precondition.

Lookup precondition in a search engine results in literally:

precondition
/priːkənˈdɪʃ(ə)n/
noun
a condition that must be fulfilled before other things can happen or be done.
"a precondition for peace" — search engine search for precondition

Notice the strong words like "must" ... and absence of words like "optional" or "nice to have, but not like, an actual precondition".

... Notice the example the search engine produces from Oxford Languages ... "a precondition for peace".

Try harder to explain my own words to me then. Here I claim it again: The best interest of both US and Soviet Union was calculated by taking into account the deterrence means they both had (but Ukraine doesn’t have!), and this was pre-condition for the kind of agreements they could rationally pursue
What's the exact meaning of it again? — neomac

That's simply not your original claim, and if it is it means nothing.

Notice the tautological nature of your new claim, which is, seeing as you agree having nuclear weapons isn't a precondition to any agreement about nuclear weapons in anyway, that people just basically take into account information in making decisions. True for pretty much any decisions.

Ukraine doesn't deterrence means ... but also took that into account in negotiating accession to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

There's actually a long list of countries without nuclear weapons that have agreed by accession or ratification to the NPT, that you can consult at treaties.unoda.org.

So, countries having nuclear weapons is a precondition for these other non-nuclear states taking into account the deterrence means of themselves and other parties etc. etc. etc. in order to decide to agree.

All that's saying is the existence of nuclear weapons, or then their conception, is a precondition to an agreement about nuclear weapons, and people thinking it's a good idea to agree to the treaty (for whatever reason) is a precondition for actually agreeing. I.e. the tautology that if someone agrees to something ... they at least thought they had good enough reasons to do so at the time, why else would they agree. Certainly it's tautological for the "rational agents" you like to sprinkle here and there in these little exchanges.

By definition a rational agent does not do something they are entirely convinced a terrible idea in every way and in no way serves any of their purposes. Obviously. And that's all your saying: US and Soviet Union thought the NTP was a good idea ... as did all the other states that agreed to it who didn't have nuclear weapons.

You're attempt to water down your original claim, clearly trying to rebut my claim that trusting Putin was in no way a precondition to a deal with Putin, is just really boring at this point.

However, it's instructive because it's a good example for anyone following of how the "that's not what I really meant" defence works in terms of mental gymnastics the practitioner can engage in and likely genuinely believe on some level.

I'm sure Zelensky genuinely believes his meaning was not to try to escalate military confrontation between NATO and Russia without any evidence but was all entirely reasonable at the time and still is even if we have to stretch the imagination to the point of being stupid.

I see you understand the word "rationality" as arbitrarily as you understand the word "precondition". Still waiting for you to quote who believed in security guaranties in the sense of certainty. Try harder. — neomac

Shitting gold is not an arbitrary. Gold is worth a lot of money, it's rational to want money according to every economics text book I've ever read, therefore it's rational to want to shit gold if that were possible and safe. Arbitrary would be that I'm just as willing to defend "it's rational to want to be eaten alive by scorpions", which I'm not. I do not think it's rational to want to be eaten alive by scorpions; seems completely irrational.

The point of this example is that stating its rational for Zelensky to want something, such as security guarantees, is not the same as stating it's a rational expectation or even possible for Zelensky to get.

We can agree that it's a rational desire on Zelensky's part, without agreeing he has any way to meaningfully get what he wants nor agreeing that anyone can even offer what he wants. Even if Biden were to swear up and down on his own son's coke, Biden may not be there in 2 years and the next US president not only care nothing for whatever Biden promised by even actively hostile to Zelensky's interests.

Your phrase "look for" is, true to form, ambiguous. It's of course rational to be on the lookout for the satisfaction of desires, even if one does not expect them. If I desire magic to actually exist (despite zero evidence) I may rationally defend being on the "look out" for ferries that have magic dust, of a coke or similar kind.

Where we can start to seriously question my rationality is if I start to put resources into attracting these ferries that I have no reason to believe exist, just would very much like the coke ferries to be an actual thing.

Likewise, if I start to make decisions, spending resources, taking risks, leading thousands of my fellow citizens to their deaths, in my quest to uncover the true magic of ferries, having zero evidence they actually exist, then, the rationality of my behaviour is, at best, highly circumspect and people may come to question my decision making process.

So, if there is no "security guarantee" that can feasibly be made for Zelensky, he may rationally rather that not be the case, but to act based on the expectation of something that cannot be offered would then fall in the irrational category.

It's only rational to make a precondition that cannot be satisfied by any party an obstacle as another way to simply say "no, I refuse to negotiate, more war please" and otherwise irrational preconditions simply a way of trolling people.

That is the issue at hand; the actual debate that is relevant to the discussion and the situation in Ukraine and Zelensky's negoitation position.

Now, if you concede the central point of contention that there is no guarantee available other than ornamentation to an agreement no one expect to be followed a week after it's signed, if circumstances emerge that render the agreement no longer in the interests of the key parties to follow, then certainly there are better and worse deals and Zelensky would want to be as confident as he can Russia won't just reinvade (or then act in his rational self interest and just be concerned about his own immediate political future and wealth, maybe take a bribe to sell Ukraine out to maximise his profits of this whole enterprise; maybe crack open an econ-101 book and look out for number 1 like a boss), but there is zero way for anyone to meaningfully guarantee they'll do what they promise or Russia will do what it promises in such a deal.

The reasons to take the deal are:

1. The alternative is losing on the battlefield and the worse conditions being imposed by force without any further leverage to negotiate conditions.

2. One genuinely believes the parties involved will follow the deal anyways, even without any guarantees (that do not and cannot exist), and that circumstances will stay that way, at least long enough that it serves your own purposes in making the deal.

3. One has no intention to follow the deal oneself, it's all part of a 5D military-diplomatic maverick statesmen move to buy time, track down the coke ferries once and for all, fly off to never-never land, track down the lost boyz and do an insane amount of coke.

4. One has been bribed to sell out ones own country for the next best thing next to magic: the fucking money.

I wasn't arguing to support Christoff's understanding of Zelensky (I find Zelensky's attitude toward the missile incident questionable). I was arguing against the claim that Christoff committed a fallacious attack ad hominem. — neomac

Sure, but this defence still requires Zelensky's words as somehow unclear.

And, if we were only talking about "action must be taken", that's ambiguous enough, but the context is incredibly clear, specifically the word "attack" is incredibly clear without alternative meaning.

There's no system of goal post shell game that can be played to turn the meaning of "attack" into "maybe it was an accident, no biggey, nothing to see here" nor "actually, we should probably investigate where the missiles came from".

There's really no other meanings available.

Now, if despite Zelensky's meaning being perfectly clear, you nevertheless see no ad hominem, I do not really care about the ad hominem in itself, wasn't directed at me and I wouldn't care if it was, but the meaning of Zelensky's words claiming Russia has directly attacked NATO does seem to me relevant to discussion.

Now, I would agree Zelensky's words wouldn't cause NATO to do anything anyways, but it is important information about Zelensky's character or if he's in control of his own forces. In Zelensky demanding the data, what is clear is that neither Zelensky nor anyone under his command has any data that indicates any Russian missile they were chasing.

Maybe Zelensky believed his own commanders "in good faith" without asking for the evidence before accusing Russia of having killed two Polish citizens (because he follows the maverick shoot from the hip play book of the league of extraordinary statesmen), but, even if this was true, the commanders in turn have no evidence for their claim.

Now you may "understand" the lying, "given the circumstances", as @Olivier5 would defend, but that is an extremely naive understanding of the circumstances.

Even if the West would never cause a stir about such lying in public, no one appreciates being lied to and that may have serious consequences, perhaps accelerating the "ally fatigue" Zelensky has already been warned about.

Even a liar only wants us to believe their lies but does not like being lied to in turn. "We're all the fucking scum of the earth" is not a team building argument.

And what holds for US and Soviet Union doesn't necessarily hold for other countries not possessing such weapons, like Ukraine. — neomac

Your exact word was "pre-condition".

Pre-condition for what? A deal concerning nuclear weapons. What's the precondition again? Having nuclear weapons, in your rebuttal to my point that the United States and Soviet Union were able to come to agreements despite not trusting each other (that "trust", such as "trusting Putin", is not a precondition to international agreements and treatise and so on).

You simply are unable to read and understand your own words.

Now you've moved the goal posts from "pre-condition" to "rational requirement" to "taking into consideration" all the way to "what holds for some parties may not hold for all parties", which is in no way an analogue for "pre-condition".

Maybe just admit you made a completely ignorant argument because in your own mind it sounded good the idea that US and Soviet Union, having nuclear weapons, don't need to trust each other due to their deterrence of actually having nuclear weapons (even underlining that "Ukraine doesn't have!" said nuclear weapons, so the pre-condition doesn't "hold" for them) and, at the time, you were completely oblivious to the easy and obvious contradiction to such an argument being other non-nuclear states entered the same agreements, so obviously it's not a pre-condition to have nuclear weapons to agree about nuclear weapons.

I totally agree with you if and only if you totally agree with me that is perfectly and pragmatically rational for Ukraine to look for "security guarantees" or equivalent to hedge against the risk of Russian adventurism at Ukrainian expenses. — neomac

It's rational to want to shit gold (in a rectally safe way and not a "careful what you wish for way"). It's rational for Zelensky to want to be king of the world. So, if by "look for" you mean "desire", sure, it's rational to desire a lot of things that won't happen, even knowing they cannot possibly happen.

If by look for you mean some actual objective ... and you are now placing "security guarantees" in quotations to emphasise the ornamental meaning of the phrase in the context we're discussing, then yes, we do agree. But all you're saying is that Ukraine (if it wanted to get a peace deal) should seek as good a deal as it can get, which is obviously true.

The basic point of international relations I have been trying to instruct you about, is that a good international deal if by "good" we mean is actually followed and implemented, is one in which the parties involved carry out their promises because they remain actions they would want to do anyways in the circumstances that follow. All an international relations agreement accomplishes in practice is coordination between willing participants and very slight resolutions of catch 22's where each party would do the actions in questions (such as reduce their weapons stockpiles for their own reasons) but only if the other party was doing so as well (solution, a system of fly over's and other inspections to see the other party is doing what they promised, in which case we'll do what we promised).

Vis-a-vis a peace deal in Ukraine, the primary factor of believing Russia would not simply reinvade is because one believes Russia would not want to, an entirely reasonable belief if one does in fact believe this war was a disaster for Russia and was premised on a total victor in 3 days. If one believed they had this current scenario in mind in launching the invasion (perhaps not as their preferred scenario, but possible and accepted), and were willing to pay the cost to achieve what they have so far, then it stands to reason they may pay a similar cost to accomplish as much in the future.

To believe the US would supply arms again in such a future invasion, again, is to assume they see that, again, as a positive cost-benefit to themselves.

All sorts of things could be in a deal that (if people kept their word) may increase or decrease the cost to Russia of another war, but none of these would be in any sense a "guarantee", except in the ornamental sense of "trust us bro" and not in a sense of certainty nor some legal sense of a court holding a party to their promise (embellishing the legal consequences to compensate the arrogance of someone who "guarantees" and doesn't deliver).

However, the biggest problem to a peace deal at the moment is that Zelensky has made a completely uncompromising position for himself, to justify further fighting at all costs, and that compromising would immediately result in the problem (for Zelensky) that it's a worse compromise than what was available before (in any deal we can imagine the Russians accepting). Of course, the West may have accomplished what it wanted in dragging out the war and damaging Russia as you point out they are want to do, but Zelensky also has constituents not only in Western parliaments but also in Ukraine who may not see the logic for them in such a resolution to the conflict.

He simply argued that Benkei's understanding of Zelensky's claims wasn't obvious — neomac

But it is obvious.

Fist Zelensky Larps as a NATO member claiming an "attack on collective security", as if Ukraine is part of some collective.

This is the key phrase, claiming NATO is under attack.

Second he says "action must be taken", which is perfectly clear what that means in the context.

It's like me yelling "The building is on fire! Action must be taken!" (having no evidence of this), and when my actions cause damages, even lives by causing a panic, claiming that "aha! I didn't say what 'actions,' I could have meant just the situation should be investigated, my statement that was based on nothing verified, and there's no cause for alarm; it's not like I said there's a fire and people should panic or act based on that belief! Where do I say that!?!?!?!."

The only other interpretation available than Zelensky claiming Russia is attacking NATO and therefore NATO must respond with some militarily escalation of one form or another, would be that Zelensky is claiming an attack on collective security by Ukraine on NATO, because Zelensky ordered an attack on Poland that took Polish lives and, generally speaking, Ukrainian actions and reckless subterfuge is a menace to NATO and European welfare since 2014. But, I seriously doubt Zelensky meant an attack on collective security by Ukraine.

If his meaning was Russia, then everyone would understand he means Russia attacked NATO and therefore NATO must respond, at least somehow. If Zelensky does not want peace (requiring compromise and breaking all his extreme exaggerated promises of victory to the Ukrainian people and accepting a deal worse than what was on the table first week of the war), then his best option is escalation ... but he doesn't control the weapons so he can't escalate himself, he needs NATO to escalate.

I continuously denied that you literally understood my quotes and I still do ("taking into account the deterrence means they both had" is the "precondition for the kind of agreements they could rationally pursue" (like the NTP and prior to that the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty ). — neomac

You then make clear "that Ukraine doesn't have!"

It cannot be clearer that you are claiming the US and Soviet Union can make deals without trusting each other because of the nuclear weapons.

Saying "nuclear weapons" is a precondition to a deal about nuclear weapons, is a tautology. Obviously non-nuclear powers take into account the nuclear weapons of nuclear powers in making deals about nuclear weapons, as well. What else would you do? How do even propose a deal about nuclear weapons that does not take into account the nuclear weapons people do or do not have.

So either you're saying nothing at all, just that people have the idea of nuclear weapons in their head in making deals about nuclear weapons, or then you're saying something meaningful that would have been meaningfully connected to the point you are responding to: that actually having the nuclear weapons is "pre-condition" to making a deal about said nuclear weapons, as a substitute to the trust that gave rise to this discussion. A meaningful argument, just obviously wrong.

So what? There are three reasons your question is failing to take into account: — neomac

Again, reading comprehension.

We agree that the major reason for Russia to not reinvade is the cost of the war. For, if they could get Ukraine for free at no cost of inconvenience, I think we'd both agree they would do that.

So, the reason to not-invade Ukraine last February would be the cost of the conflict (sanctions, fighting and so on).

If there is a peace deal, the situation will be the same. The reason to enter a peace deal would be a bet that from Russia's perspective the cost of another war would outweigh the benefits and therefore they would not reinvade.

If we agree on this point, then we agree that this is in no war a guarantee.

If we also agree the US is not going to nuke Russia if they invade again (or at least not due to anything written on any piece of paper with the word "Ukraine" on it), then there is just no guarantees available. You can call something a guarantee; you can write down "the US will see to it that this deal is respected, that's a Uncle Sam guarantee!" but it's not a guarantee in any sense more than ornamentation added to the agreement for PR purposes. Wording and PR does have some consequence, it's not meaningless, just the US is not about nuke anyone simply due to PR optics of not-nuking them. They'll nuke Russia if they genuinely believe Russia is going to nuke them now or after some series of events they come to believe are inevitable. The decision to nuke Russia or not will have anything to do with any promises to Ukraine; I guarantee you that in the certainty sense of guarantee.

Now, you're whole list:

1. We are in the middle of the war so we don’t see the end of the war nor the full consequences of such war. The Soviet–Afghan War lasted 10 years, could anyone see the end of it and the following collapse of the Soviet Union while they were in the middle of it back then? No, because they didn’t happen yet.
2. Russia was complaining about NATO enlargement since the 90s, did Russia see NATO enlargement stopping for that reason? NATO/US can be as determined as Russia to pursue their goals in Ukraine at the expense of Russia. And since Russia, especially under Putin, took a declared confrontational attitude toward the hegemonic power, Russia made sure that NATO/US will deal with Russia accordingly as long as they see fit.
3. The end game for NATO/US involvement in this war doesn’t need to be to stop Russia or overturn its regime. But to inflict as much enduring damage as possible to Russian power (in terms of its economic system, its system of alliance, its capacity of military projection outside its borders, its its technology supply, its military and geopolitical status) to the point it is not longer perceived as a non-negligible geopolitical threat to the West. — neomac

Has nothing to do with my point. My point is simply that obviously Russia is willing to pay the cost of war with Ukraine under certain circumstances (such as circumstances that literally exist right now ... if they weren't willing, then they'd be withdrawing right now and the war would be over). Therefore, you could never reasonably assume such circumstances would not reemerge in the future regardless of any peace deal today. If there's no third party to keep Russia to its promise to not reinvade in the context of a peace deal (even ignoring the problem of why we'd believe such a third party would actually act), then there is simply nothing that can be remotely described as a guarantee of not being reinvaded available to Ukraine.

We may empathise why they would want such a guarantee in a peace deal, but it's simply not available. Therefore, if they want a peace deal, insisting on a guarantee in any meaningful sense (non-ornamental sense) is an irrational demand in negotiation, even more so an irrational precondition to negotiate in the first place.

What you list above has nothing to do with my basic observation that Russia is obviously willing to pay the cost of a war with Ukraine, has just happened and so may happen again. None of the third parties will be able to change this basic fact in any scribbling on paper process of whatever you want.

Of course, the alternative to a peace deal is more war, and in such a choice, as you say, maybe continued war is good for the West to "to inflict as much enduring damage as possible to Russian power".

However, if this damage is indeed significant, then it would be reason to assume that Russia would not restart a war that was so damaging. But, even if this is good for the West, is it good for Ukraine to be in a war forever with Russia and never make peace?

Since you can perfectly understand that there are implied and increasing non-negligible costs, especially when it’s matter of sunk costs and its psychological effects (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost#Fallacy_effect), talking about actual willingness or hypothetical willingness in conjectured scenarios doesn't suffice to reason about this matter. And for that reason I’m not sure that Russia could rationally want to aggress Ukraine again. — neomac

Agreements are about future scenarios and contingencies. If Ukraine is demanding "guarantees" ... guarantees for what? Obviously not being invaded again. That's the scenario being negotiated.

If the US is promising something, and for that guarantee to be meaningful, then that means asking the question of "would the US do this thing even if it otherwise wouldn't want to?". A promise is only meaningful if it actually compels you to fulfil your promise in circumstances you don't want to anymore.

Now, the answer to the question "Would the US intervene again in Ukraine even if it really doesn't want to, for whatever reasons, just because it promised Ukraine as much?"

The answer is: No, it won't.

It will just forget about the agreement under such circumstances, but more likely just negotiate the agreement in such a way as to not really promise anything anyways (because it can, as it has the leverage vis-a-vis Ukraine, so there's simply no reason to make potentially unfulfilled promises anyways).

Therefore, the reason for Ukraine to believe Russia would not invade is not any promise by the US, but simply the cost to Russia of another war being higher than the benefits. If the current war really was premised on the idea that it would be over in 3 days, and has been a disaster ever since, then obviously Ukraine has demonstrated it takes more than 3 days to conquer, so Ukraine can sleep easy with that fact being clear.

Can the agreement commit US to actions that further increase the cost of another war beyond simply fighting with the Ukrainians? Obviously yes, just I honestly don't see any interventions the US would reasonably do in a second war they aren't already doing (again, actions under which Russia is currently willing to wage war). More important to the subject matter, even if the US made such commitments, if the question is asked if anything holds the US to their word about those commitments (promises by the US are a meaningful guarantee), the answer is obviously no.

So, to summarise, not only is "guarantees" not a reasonable precondition to negotiate in the first place, but there is no guarantee that Ukraine can actually secure in any meaningful sense. Placing the word "guarantee" or "guarantors" on the agreement would have very slight PR differences on how any events would actually play out (such as a "super sorry bro" rather than a mere "sorry bro").

Of course, if you want to argue that more war is good for the West and good for Ukraine, then you need not justify Zelensky's unreasonable conditions (to talk peace), but just defend the actual decision of wanting more war and ignore Zelensky' bullshit or then justify it as clever trolling of his partners, the media and social media. It's not like the Western media is able to rationally critique anything he says, so he could literally say anything.

However, this configuration of Zelensky dictating what's true and false to the Western media is one of invitation and not power. What the CIA gives with its right hand, it can take with its left.

Zelensky's credibility can be placed at any moment at any level the US administration wants, without Zelensky having any say whatsoever in the matter.

US administration wants the world to doubt what Zelensky knew or didn't know, intentions behind his statements, about any missiles hitting Poland, paint him as a dangerous fool, done. US administration wants Zelensky to talk peace even if he doesn't want to because there is no peaceful end to the war compatible with the survival of his political career, and controlling billions of dollars of free money with zero accountability and zero "collect taxes and pay debts" requirements nor any governance services quality expectations by anyone ... or opposition media ... or opposition parties ... and win oscars for the performance ... is a pretty nice life style, literally a 2 day operation to have Zelensky start talking peace rather than "we will defeat the Russians".

That could well explain why they're now refusing to reveal their source. — Isaac

Could also be that Poland was gearing up for a big splash with "Russian missile!", and AP got the information when that was the actual plan.

Perhaps at the time Poland thought they could walk that back to "Russian produced" later, but then got cold feat when they realised that would make them look stupid, they have no idea how the US (not to mention Russia) would react to that, so better just stick to common sense justifiable statements navigating an event that could potentially lead to nuclear war between two super powers.

Poland's statements definitely look like they were originally written to say "Russian missile" but then someone added "produced" when they actually sat down and asked themselves if jumping out with "Aha! never said owned and operated by Russia!" later, was a good situation to be in.

The question is why the US would deliberately feed false intelligence to the press, then later deny the veracity of that information.

A split over strategy, perhaps? — Isaac

Definitely also a curious aspect of the case.

However, even it was a US intelligence official it may have been a legitimate leak of someone who legitimately didn't actually know. Also, it could have been just leaking what Poland then claimed that it was a "Russian produced missile", maybe AP even got the same info but left out "produced" for click bait effect.

In any event, doesn't need to have been any deliberate decision by the US administration. If it was a genuine surprise then some confusion is reasonable to go along with that on the US side. Intelligence agents may also have their own agendas, biases and sense of a lack of accountability anyways, opportunity to stoke tensions because why not. Has been known to happen.

There's also the circumstantial evidence to consider.

Missiles have been flying all over the place for over three quarters of a year, none of them falling in Poland, and shortly after Zelensky is warned of "ally fatigue" by the US ... "collective security" is directly attacked.

There is certainly motive and opportunity in any rational consideration of the evidence we have so far.

It seems unlikely that a stray modern air defense missile hits something it wasn't supposed to and also kills two people, across the border of a neutral country no less. Unlikely in terms of statistical probability, but also due to the fact that the S-300 system makes missiles self-destruct when they miss their targets. — Tzeentch

I had also been thinking about the odds on this. Poland is also in the opposite direction.

Of course, Russia has hit targets close the Polish border, so the setup isn't difficult to believe (of an AA missile chasing something towards the Polish border), but the odds of both AA missiles malfunctioning in addition to killing people rather than landing in some random field, is pretty low.

If it was done intentionally, sending two missiles would make sense if the story one has in mind is one was Russian and the other was chasing it. You'd want to do this for the plausible deniability that the Russian missile was missed by radar and so of course there's only the radar signature of the AA missile.

Two missiles is a liability if the US then insists neither came from Russia, as two not only malfunctioning at the same time but coming down in the same location and killing 2 people, creates this head scratching odds questions. Much easier to say one in a fluke than two. There's an old saying in Tennessee—I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, 'Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again.'

If it's a rational plan, you'd have to bet US actually wants to escalate to go with the plausible deniability story that no one can prove the second missile wasn't Russian.

If you have no reason to believe that, then it's just a desperate plan with significant risks.

More claims and conjectures and ornamental blablabla. — neomac

What I describe is not conjecture, but a potential scenario that makes clear the ornamental nature of any "guarantees" to any peace deal concerning Ukraine.

I am not "conjecturing" that this scenario will come to pass, but developing such scenarios is how decisions are made. Ukraine's concern about "security guarantees" comes from asking "what if Russia reinvades later anyways".

For the word "guarantee" to be more than an ornament would mean that the US et. al. would fulfil whatever it is they promised to do, or make sure Russia doesn't do, even if it's no longer their policy to do.

For example, if it's policy to want to pour arms into Ukraine if Russia re-invades for the same reasons they did the first time or then entirely new reasons, then they don't really need an agreement. NATO wasn't bound by treaty to pour arms into Ukraine in February, they did so because they wanted to.

Now, imagine things change and NATO no longer wants to pour arms into Ukraine.

Would the agreement itself compel them to act (such as supply arms again) just in order to keep a promise, even if it's in total contradiction to their national interests and policies at this future time?

If the answer is ... yeah, no, they'd just "look out for number 1" as they always do, then all this talk of "guarantee" is an ornamental sense, adds nothing to whatever the promise the guarantee is attached to, just embellishes the promise, which may have some consequences as far as embellishments (they maybe really very sorry for breaking a guarantee, truly regret it, rather than simply be just sorry and regret it, breaking a promise that was not also guaranteed).

They may have some excuse, like " 'assurance' means absolutely nothing", which would be likely the case if there's a peace deal as the wording will be such that nothing was really promised anyways, for the simple reason that the US doesn't need to. Or, if they really are breaking a promise but they just can't fulfil it (consistent with their policies at this future time) then they may just say that it's unfortunate but they can't afford to try to rescue Ukraine again ... or, they just say nothing and do nothing.

The reason to believe Russia won't just re-invade is exactly as you describe: it's costly.

Of course, they were willing to take this risk and pay this cost once, so that's not really a "guarantee" just the reasons they don't invade is that it's costly, and the reasons they do reinvade is ... it's costly but they're willing to pay the cost.

The whole point of fighting a more powerful state is to demonstrate that there's a high cost to the use of force, to then negotiate a resolution using that leverage that, sure, Ukraine maybe entirely destroyed by the end of a war, but it's still a big cost and hassle to Russia too.

This is what Finland did with the Soviet Union, demonstrate war isn't easy and then negotiate a compromise ... but somehow Finland is only a model on killing Russians and not their diplomatic efforts that they carried out consistently, continuously, reasonably and earnestly in parallel to the fighting.

I'm not interested in claims, I'm interested in arguments. — neomac

I argue these points at some length, literally cite the claims I'm rebutting that you just continuously deny ever making.

It hasn't deterred Russia right, but Russia is paying and might pay more. So I'm not sure that what you presume is correct. Russia now knows better the costs of its adventurism. — neomac

Do you see Russia stopping the war of their own accord?

No. So, obviously the cost of their adventurism is a cost they are willing to pay.

So, what would be the reason to assume they are not willing to pay the same cost in the future?

Not really any. So, "rationally" it would be nice to have some better reason, such as the US nuking Russia on behalf of Ukraine and being deterred that way. The only problem is there's no rational reason for the US to sign up to that, much less actually do when called upon.

Which is the core fallacy of Zelenskyites: that whatever is good for Zelensky to be true (at least according to him) we should also believe is true, or at least nevertheless support whatever he wants and is trying to get in saying whatever we agree isn't true.

A nice connection to the missile issue. Is Zelensky talking out of his ass? Zelenskyites: Sure, maybe. But that's just all rational decision making that we should support and encourage escalation, if that's what Zelensky wants, it's just clever to use the missile issue to try to escalate. You see, he "believes it" so it's ok to say what you believe even if you have no evidence for it.

Never made such a claim. Quote where I did. — neomac

I've quoted it back to you several times:

You misunderstood my claim. I was referring precisely to the following condition: “each side saw it was in their best interest to avoid a large scale nuclear war”. The best interest of both US and Soviet Union was calculated by taking into account the deterrence means they both had (but Ukraine doesn’t have!), and this was pre-condition for the kind of agreements they could rationally pursue. — neomac

Read your own words.

"this was pre-condition for the kind of agreements they could rationally pursue" and you even note "Ukraine doesn’t have!".

The meaning could not be more clear that it was rational for the US and the Soviet Union to "rationally pursue" these non-proliferation agreements, despite not trusting each other, because they both had nuclear weapons ... and ... "Ukraine doesn’t have!"

It cannot be clearer that your implication is that it would not be rational for Ukraine to enter the same agreements without nuclear weapons.

An argument that is clearly false, especially as Ukraine and many other non-nuclear states pursued and signed up to the very same agreements.

Since, you moved the goalpost from "pre-condition" (the word you use) to "rational requirement" to "taking into account".

Yes, obviously all parties took into account the nuclear weapons other parties had or didn't have in negotiating and agreeing to non-proliferation treatise.

If you're really saying now that what you really meant was that the US took into account the Soviet Unions nuclear weapons, vice-versa, and non-nuclear states did the same, everyone took into account stuff, it's just a farcical level of bad faith.

Security guarantees. — neomac

First, as a general principle, this is not a "precondition" or "rational requirement" as a state may surrender simply because they are losing.

Second, Ukraine will receive zero meaningful security guarantees in any peace deal with Russia, other than the ornamental meaning of "trust us bro".

Whatever Russia promises to do, and does not do, obviously nothing stops them, and there is no meaningful leverage NATO would have anyways that would actually stop them short of nuclear weapons, which obviously they won't be "deterring" Russia with concerning Ukraine.

We can be pretty sure of this because NATO has already applied maximum pressure of sanctions and arms supplies and this hasn't "deterred" Russia from their course of acton, so presumably if Russia invaded again then the reasonable bet is we'd (at best for Ukraine) just be back in this same situation; West angry about it, sanctions up the wazoo, providing arms ... and that's it.

Whatever US promises to do and doesn't do, there would unlikely be any consequences at all.

But whatever the consequences for breaking the agreement, they would not be "much" as some sort of contractual result.

The consequence for Russia of reinvading Ukraine would be war and likely sanctions and international pressure, perhaps from their own partners if it's a second time around of this mess for no reason.

This would be the reason to expect Russia to abide by a peace agreement, to avoid the negative consequences of war they have also experienced.

However, being nuked by the USA would not be a reason.

If there's a peace deal and then later war resumes, the reasonable expectation is that the parties to the agreement will do in the future whatever their policy is then in the future anyways.

For example, let's say in the future Europe's and US economy is really hurting, monetary crisis, real domestic problems, in addition to potential war with China invading Taiwan any moment, all sorts of messes all around the world, and they simply don't have the capacity for this same kind of conflict, pour in billions and billions ("carte blanch"), then what we would expect is that their policy then would be "sorry Ukraine, but you're on your own this time" regardless of what is written on any piece of paper.

If the policy in the future is not to intervene for reasons, then the answer about the agreement will be "yeah, well", as we saw about the Crimea annexation in 2014.

Why wasn't the word "assurance" meaningful? Well, it was just ornamental for and a stand in for "trust us bro". Why does a promise not matter because the word "assurance" instead of "guarantor" used to embellish it?

Because nothing actually legal is going on and the promises don't need to be kept, regardless of what words you use.

conditional on the rationality of the agent — neomac

I think the forum should nominate prizes for pseudo intellectual bullshit, and I nominate this phase.

Concerning Zelensky perspective I clarified my point: since Ukraine doesn't have nuclear weapons, the deterrence strategy available to Ukraine in negotiating with Russia (which has nuclear weapons) can not be like the one available to the US in dealing with the Soviet Union. Therefore Ukraine is rationally looking for alternatives (e.g. security guarantees, NATO membership and the like). — neomac

First, your idea that the US and Soviet Union entered non-proliferation agreements based on the idea they could deter the other from not breaking them with their nuclear weapons, is simply false. US and Soviet Union could sign a non-proliferation treaty one day, break it the next day, and the situation would just return to what it was before, neither would rationally (nor did in practice) consider nuking the other simply for breaking a treaty. They would nuke the other if they genuinely believed they were being or about to be nuked.

So, maybe think it through and see your delusion here about how the world works. Why would they nuke each other for breaking a treaty that was intended to lower the chances of nuking each other? Ok, treaty didn't work, situation returns to higher odds of nuking each other.

The US did not "use its deterrence" as a basis to believe the the Soviet Union would abide by the treaty. At no point did either party sign thinking the other would stick to the agreement or be nuked. The nuclear weapons, and their mutual fear of them, was what the negotiation was about (the common ground, common risk, they both wanted to lower), but not itself a way of "dealing" with the other party.

Read some history or maybe just think through the implications of what your saying.

As for seeking NATO deterrence because Ukraine does not have deterrence, this is certainly a rational desire, but it is not a rational diplomatic goal because NATO will never provide it.

There is no reason for NATO to nuke Russia if there is a peace agreement and Russia violates it vis-a-vis Ukraine. If Russia re-invades we'd just be back to where we are currently, there is no circumstances, and certainly no wording of any treaty, that would be some rational basis for NATO to nuke Russia for violating it.

Now, by all means, change your goal posts again to just "for Ukraine to agree, they'd need to be somewhat confident the agreement is better than the alternatives, and somewhat confident Russia would follow it due to a bunch of reasons".

For the sixth time, the general principle is the following: available deterrence means are taken into account by rational agents when engaging in negotiations. — neomac

That's in no way a "pre-conditon" in the sense Zelensky uses it, or the sense you clearly were using it.

Saying parties take information into account to make decisions ... is obvious.

The subject was if "preconditions" were reasonable, an example of a precondition mentioned by Zelensky and Zelenskyites here was "trusting Putin", I pointed out that's not a precondition to enter an agreement, parties (even states) that don't trust each other enter into agreements.

Your rebuttal to this was that US and Soviet Union had nuclear weapons, and "Ukraine does not have!" (Exclamation mark!) That this was a "precondition" in your words. So clearly some condition that made it reasonable of US and Soviet Union that Ukraine doesn't have so doesn't make it reasonable ... otherwise you would have stated "well, of course it's a precondition for the US and Soviet Union, a condition Ukraine doesn't have, but of course Ukraine could enter those same agreements without the precondition I'm talking about, especially because Ukraine itself signed some of the same treatise vis-a-vis nuclear weapons" but by then maybe you'd perhaps even realise "hmm, I'm either not making any sense whatsoever or saying nothing at all, certainly not rebutting Boethius' point".

Now, you've moved the goal posts to from the nuclear weapons being a "precondition" to the nuclear weapons being a "rational requirement" to now just "taking into account".

Obviously "rational agents" take into account what other agents can and cannot do.

You are saying absolutely nothing other than people make decisions based on the information they have, sometimes rationally according to your standard of rationality you're invoking.

So, where is the debate on this topic: obviously the "precondition" of Zelensky isn't some actual precondition that would prevent him from talking or agreeing to something, and if it's a "rational requirement" that would depend on a lot of things (such as if he can just go ahead and "defeat" the Russians or not, if the Russians can defeat him, if fighting for time or a better negotiation position later is worth the lives lost or not, if the Russian economy will collapse and Putin is ousted from power one way or another; in brief everything we've been discussing this entire thread).

Obviously decisions would be based on evaluating the situation and what one believes about the future, what people believe about intentions of people involved, trust and so on.

What Zelensky has been trying to argue is there is some basic short circuits around all that sober consideration of the circumstances that justifies his decision to have an uncompromising diplomatic position that would result in extended warfare into potentially the far future requiring Western support.

Now, we may see why Zelensky would want simple arguments that would justify his position to not compromise so his backers don't get angry with him. The subject under discussion is whether those simplistic arguments to basically not enter any discussion that may actually reach a compromise by invoking "preconditions" (such as won't talk to Putin, or US guarantees, or Russian forces must withdraw entirely, or won't offer any territorial concessions etc.) are "actual preconditions", as Zelensky presents them, or are just a way of saying he's not going to compromise and has no justification for not compromising, he's willing for another 100 000 of his citizen's lives "thrown into the abyss" (as apparently pentagon officers put it) simply to not compromise and perhaps not accomplish anything further militarily as perhaps everything they could reasonably accomplish militarily they have already done so (as another pentagon officer has apparently noted).

But, if there is some version of "precondition" that's not some vacuous tautology and is in some way connected to the subject matter (Zelensky's clear meaning and functional use of the term as justifying his decisions), then present an argument.

However, rebutting my point and then later explaining you literally have said nothing of substance whatsoever in relation to my point, just reminding us that decisions are in fact based on information the people making decisions have, or then at least "rational agents" base their decisions on what they know, you have literally said absolutely nothing.

I suspect you took pre-condition as "necessary condition" instead of "rational requirement", and "the kind of agreements they could rationally pursue" as suggesting a one-to-many generalization between one type of deterrence (nuclear weapons) and states (with or without nuclear weapons) instead of a many-to-many generalization between types of deterrence and states. You were wrong in both cases. In other words, I didn't claim that possession of nuclear weapons is a necessary condition for agreements between states (with or without nuclear weapons ). — neomac

Obviously it's not a "necessary condition" (which would obviously be false statement as that would mean it would literally not be possible to sign such an agreement). Necessary conditions would be things like "existing" as some deal making entity, and also "able to communicate" in order to engage in said deal making.

However, the fact that non-nuclear states both can for pretty clear rational reasons (of making the world as a whole a safer place and being unable to compete in the nuclear game anyways) and actually do engage in non-nuclear proliferation treatise, often the exact same ones as the nuclear powers, is pretty clear indication that your idea of a "rational requirement" is also obviously false.

Which, again, is what you state:

You misunderstood my claim. I was referring precisely to the following condition: “each side saw it was in their best interest to avoid a large scale nuclear war”. The best interest of both US and Soviet Union was calculated by taking into account the deterrence means they both had (but Ukraine doesn’t have!), and this was pre-condition for the kind of agreements they could rationally pursue. — neomac

Now, the meaning of this paragraph is clear, that you are arguing US and Soviet Union could enter these agreements somehow due to having nuclear weapons, a "pre-condition" (rational requirement if you want to change goal posts there), and you even specify "Ukraine doesn't have" ... what don't they have? The pre-condition, therefore Ukraine should not enter the same sorts of agreements.

Which links up with the fundamental issue under discussion, which is the level of certainty Zelensky should (or even can) have for signing a peace agreement. Zelensky has been demanding certainty (which is certainly rational to want) but phrasing things in absolute terms like "pre-condition" (you use this term because Zelensky uses this term), but obviously eventual certainty, guarantees, etc. are not preconditions to negotiate.

Of course, parties have reasons to agree or not.

If all you're saying is nuclear powers had reasons to signup to nuclear non-proliferation, and non-nuclear states had other reasons, obviously. Likewise, both the US and Soviet Union and other states would have their own evaluation of their confident other parties will follow those agreements, maybe try to find out about it to do something (such as the network of sensors and radiation testing to detect non-treaty nuclear tests) ... maybe try to break the agreements themselves.

All you're doing now is moving the goal posts from defending Zelensky's statements of "preconditions" (which simply don't exist, as you yourself note they are obviously not "necessary", which precondition would usually literally mean in that if a precondition wasn't necessary then obviously it's not a precondition) to removing all meaning from your original argument so as just to say "parties have their own reasons to agree to something", which is pretty common feature of agreeing to something.

There can be lot's of reasons to agree to something; one such reason is that you will lose the war anyways so there's no point continuing to fight, there's literally zero confidence the agreement will be followed but ... continued fighting no longer serves a purpose. In other words, the "rational requirement" of confidence a party will actually respect an agreement, can literally be zero but still rational to agree to.

Right, and I took the case of the US and the Soviet Union both as a way to illustrate this general point, and to compare it to the hypothetical case of Ukraine negotiating with Russia. — neomac

What general point?

Having nuclear deterrence was not a "pre-condition" to entering non proliferation treatise, as countries with zero nuclear deterrence (including Ukraine) enter the same agreements.

There are lot's of reasons to sign a treaty with another country, but that they are somehow guaranteed to follow the treaty is not one of them.

Presumably an agreement is good for both parties (otherwise why would both parties agree to it?) and the reason to believe the counter party will follow the agreement is whatever reasons for them to be in the agreement in the first place are really there and persisting (at least long enough for it to be worth it for your own goals; for example the non-aggression pact between the Nazi's and the Soviet Union).

However, there is simply no system of "guaranteeing" any party will actually follow any agreement.

In short, the alternative you are selling me is between “certainty” and “ornamental”?! Are you crazy?! — neomac

Please read.

There are two meanings to guarantee: certainty or then purely ornamental expression of confidence that is in no way certain.

If I guarantee you the sun will rise tomorrow or that we cannot time travel to stop the Ukraine war from happening, I truly believe that is certain and am using guarantee to express certainty. If I say I guarantee you'll have a great time at my party, that is obviously not certain and the word is purely ornamental; the meaning of the phrase "you'll have a great time at my party" doesn't really change if I add guarantee to it or not.

Likewise, if a company promises you something and doesn't deliver, you could sue them. Again, there would be little difference in such promises and their litigation with or without the word guarantee. The argument "aha! I said I would do it in the contract but I didn't guarantee it!" isn't a good legal argument. Words that emphasise but don't change meaning are ornamental in linguistics. Ornaments can still have consequences. For instance, if I say my promise is a "super duper, mega, no doubts, fantastico guarantee" and then don't deliver, judge will for sure not reward me for adding all these arguments to a promise, the basic legal decision would be about what the promise was and if I delivered it and what the liability is in the context. For embellishing my promise a judge may see it suitable to embellish the damages, but the decision would be about what was the promise, that I "super promised" doesn't really matter to the legal decision as such (did I promise, or didn't I, did I deliver or didn't I, was there good reasons for that, or not); a promise is a promise is a promise; adding "I guarantee it" to a promise doesn't change it's ontological or epistemological status.

In relations between states there is the additional problem that there are no judges that decide anything. Everything is "voluntary". So, in such a context, adding "guarantee" is even more ornamental than in private dealings, as you cannot even go to a judge and complain that this asshat not only promised and didn't deliver, but was an arrogant reckless idiot and claimed to be certain about it (so even more reason to not take mitigatory steps).

As I've described, the reason to assume other parties would follow the deal is not some legalistic reasoning that simply doesn't apply in a non-legal context, that the US "guarantees" something.

One maybe more or less confident a deal will be followed, but the evaluation has little to do with any legal wording or obligations (which simply don't exist in international relations).

So you think the Soviet Union would have gone fine on with unlimited weapons armament during the Cold War. One fifth going to defense spending wouldn't be enough? No. And on the other hand the West, which just was putting 5% into defense spending, it wouldn't have been detrimental to brush off any kind of talk of arms reductions and spending on other issues? Usually leadership of a country is rational, at least about it's popularity and survival. — ssu

By forced I really mean forced, and not "have really good reasons".

I think the Germans had really good reasons to agree to a surrender anytime before sending literal children to go fight in the front lines, but precisely since they weren't forced to surrender until Berlin was overrun.

Which was exactly my point, you can just not agree to things even if the alternatives are worse.

Not only you had a leadership that wanted Gotterdämmerung for Germany and Germans, but also because the Nazi government had no option. Remember Yalta. There was (luckily) the ability for separate peace for Finland, but that option wasn't open for Germany. Something that is a very good choice: if the allies would have stopped at the borders of Germany, it's likely that the Nazi regime would have survived and Germans wouldn't be such pacifists as they are now. — ssu

Are you really arguing the Nazi's government had no other choice than to send children to fight in the front lines?

Obviously they could have surrendered when the war was clearly lost and the outcome of occupation unavoidable. That's not what they want, but when you can't stop your enemy that's what happens.

I think that we are just arguing about just when a country needs to do a decision and when not to. I would just emphasize that a country that has started a war has gone to the extreme and doesn't back out of it's decisions for minor inconveniences. — ssu

I'm not even sure what we're arguing about.

The others were arguing there are valid preconditions for negotiating (such as "trusting Putin" or NATO will "guarantee" the agreement ahead of time, or Putin must no longer be president of Russia, or Russia pulls all forces out of Ukraine etc.).

Of course, nothing stops a party from throwing down preconditions as a negotiating tactic, but it's absurd to say that is some actual barrier of some kind. Obviously you can always negotiate without preconditions and this is the vast majority of negotiations. Lawyers even have an expression "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed!" and variations on that.

This whole preconditions thing is that whenever Zelensky doesn't want to negotiate, instead of saying he could but he won't, he says there's some reason he can't negotiate or then simply won't negotiate until such-and-such. People can defend such things as "good diplomacy" or that Ukraine will "win" so don't need talks and can just troll the media or whatever, but the disagreement here is people defending these arguments at face value; that there really is reasonable preconditions required for peace talks.

You can always ask for conditions to be met, either as a good faith gesture or then as a way to not-talk, but it's absurd to say you really can't talk due to this or that, unless there's some sort of actual practical barrier; which is obviously almost never the case between states.

Talks of course may not succeed but clearly parties to a dispute can talk if they want and see if there's enough common ground to work out a deal.

The alternative to talks is more warfare. If you don't need a deal, but can get what you want by force, then you don't need talks.

But the contradiction Zelenskyites get into is when they argue Ukraine wants a peace deal but refuses to talk, and not-talking is justified even if they really do want a peace deal.

The only position that coheres with wanting a peace deal is wanting to talk and try to work out a peace deal. The only position that coheres with refusing to talk is not wanting a peace deal that can only be achieved through talks, and therefore more war (which can be a reasonable decision if you believe you will get what you want at the end of more fighting).

Inventing some obstacles to talks, that is obviously not there, is just bad faith and ridiculous to anyone familiar with talking.

Dude, for the third time, you are mistaken about what I claim. I didn’t write anywhere that nuclear weapons is a “precondition of any agreement”. — neomac

You literally stated nuclear weapons were the precondition for the US and Soviet Union entering various non-proliferation agreements:

You misunderstood my claim. I was referring precisely to the following condition: “each side saw it was in their best interest to avoid a large scale nuclear war”. The best interest of both US and Soviet Union was calculated by taking into account the deterrence means they both had (but Ukraine doesn’t have!), and this was pre-condition for the kind of agreements they could rationally pursue. — neomac

Which was your example: "Ukraine doesn't have!" nuclear weapons.

But obviously even in your example nuclear weapons aren't a "pre-condition" (your exact words), because plenty of other non-nuclear states entered the same nuclear non-proliferation treatise.

It's late here, so I'll get to the rest of your comments tomorrow, but ... maybe spend that time to read your own words.

You literally state "this was pre-condition for the kind of agreements they could rationally pursue".

What was the "pre-condition"? "taking into account the deterrence means they both had".

Which is obviously contradicted by other non-nuclear states doing the same thing, so obviously nuclear weapons isn't a pre-condition for "the kind of agreements they could rationally pursue", as other actors pursued the same agreements without having nuclear weapons.

Therefore, in the words of my sweet, innocent legal colleagues: Quod erat demonstrandum!

What's the point of your post?

Why not post news snippets to news snippet aggregators on reddit or wherever?

If it ever becomes relevant to the discussion, you can then just link to your aggregated news snippets about it.