Yes, and we still have not dealt with the subprime mortgage crisis. House prices are rising at the fasted rate for years and rental costs for those who aren’t fortunate enough to be on the property ladder are by far their largest expenditure.

Add to this rising interest rates and it could burst and this time it will not just be froth, but mass repossessions and bankruptcy.

She should have been advised that without an industrial strategy U.K. industry would be undercut through the development of globalisation and the rise of Chinese manufacturing.
Likewise the evolution of US style management ideology and its reliance on exploitation of employees for profit.

As a result we now have an economy and society ravaged by globalisation and deregulated business practices and offshore IT corporations. And stuck with an incompetent Tory party with only one strategy to remedy this situation, Austerity. Oh and further free market capitalism, now global. Which will embed the failure and crisis further.

Quite, I could never understand why Thatcher didn’t produce a sustainable industrial strategy. Had we not been in the EU she would probably have neglected farming too.
I can see interest rates rising again now, I can’t see how it can be avoided. And with our over-leveraged population, this is a dangerous corner to find ourselves in.

As I have said, the Tory’s are finished once they are demonstrably an economic failure. All they’ve got now is more austerity, this cuts the legs out from under the struggling public services, and social security, delivering crisis after crisis. Johnson’s trick of blaming failure on others will soon wear thin. Their solution to this is more free market involvement. But it always ends in crony gravy trains.

They might have been able to scrape by if Brexit had not happened. But now we have a chaotic hard Brexit it will compound all these problems and add a whole layer more on top.

He will increasingly become cornered into relying on raw populism, like Trump.

I can’t see any way back for the Tory’s for a decade, or more now. An opposition coalition will have to pick up the pieces and hopefully break the stranglehold of Murdoch et al and bring in PR.

Yes, in policy terms the gov is no worse than Thatcher. Although following 10yrs of austerity with another 10 to come, the effect on the institutions and services, affected is equally as stark/destructive.

Going back to the numbered points, the effect of political decisions by Tory’s and this gov to deliver a chaotic hard Brexit in itself is anti business, destructive to the economy and has trashed our international standing.
For anyone who has a modicum of interest in politics, presumably it has become clear by now that Tory’s don’t care about the poor, the wealth divide, or reviving sink towns and areas. They’ve had 10yrs to address these issues and have made the situation demonstrably worse. Now we have all this debt from The pandemic, it is clear there is going to be a further round of austerity, which will hit those on median and low incomes.

You write about the gov in a way that the promises they make might have some credibility, that they might just do what they say. I understand this as it is how political discourse has been conducted for decades in this country. But surely by now you realise that these promises are laughable, especially on levelling up, global trade and Green issues.

I agree with your thoughts about populism, it always falls down when people realise it is built on hollow promises, lies and division.

There is an interesting thread here listing the emerging issues with the unfolding Brexit, just to give a flavour.
https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/1407936175885754373?s=20

Well the difference between us then is that I see this as a significant departure from the norm and you see it as part of the normal rebranding of the Conservative party.

I agree with you about the rebranding and that the Tory’s will regroup with a new leader and develop a collective amnesia for what has happened in the past. The reestablishment of one nation Conservatism etc. This is a cyclical process which rinses and whitewashes the Tory’s, occasionally having an opposition party in power for a term or two (but only a moderate one, not socialists), before the return of our rulers rebranded, clean and fresh, ready to put their safe pair of hands on the tiller again.

My point is that this time they have lost the plot and gone to far. You do presumably accept that this is possible? That a ruling party can go to far, can break the system and the established cycle. If you agree that there is this possibility where do you draw the line, beyond which the cycle is broken? For me it is the trashing, demonstrable on the ground, of the core principles of One Nation Conservatism.
These are (not exhaustive)
Pro business.
A safe pair of hands with the economy.
Levelling up (the inclusion of the poor, or deprived groups)
Managing a moderate/constructive capitalism, entrepreneurship etc.
An ambassador for the important position and role of the U.K. on the world stage.
Governance of the highest integrity, reliability and honesty at home and abroad.

Now all of these principles has been trashed over the last 5 years. Indeed we now have Boris laughing at us as he does it with that petulant grin on his face as he blusters and waffles it away.

As I say there are two main drivers of this destruction.
The embracing of Brexit,
The adoption of manipulative populism

Since Johnson has been resident in No10, the proroguing of parliament, lying to the Queen, the vilification of the EU. The chaos and lies in management of various crises, The lying in plain sight, the mass corruption and misappropriation of public money during the pandemic etc has hammered home this destruction.

Is this all going to be whitewashed away while Starmer has a brief stint in Downing Street? Somehow I doubt it.

Then there is the demographic time bomb. The young just don’t get the Tory’s anymore. The gravy train in which the young turn Tory when they feel a bit of wealth and financial comfort has ended, or at least been drastically reduced. Young people don’t believe the government on the their lies about green issues, levelling up etc. Both which are going to become big issues over the next few years.
The other prong of the demographic time bomb is that their base is dying off of old age. They rely on comfortably off retired people who are insulated from the failings in the economy. But every year they die off by about half a million.

I see their days as numbered and I’m sure they have seen this as a possibility, hence their selling out to populism.

My rationale is that Tory’s have been in crisis following the growth of UKIP and the fallout from the financial crisis of 2008. Alongside these issues, the apparent success of Corbyn put the wind up em and their policy of austerity has started to attract criticism as a failed policy.

A generation of anti EU sentiment had matured among a section of their base and the parliamentary party. There was a steady stream of these Euro skeptics out of the party in favour of UKIP. This was partly responsible for the growing call for a referendum. In reality Cameron had little choice but to call the referendum because of this split. We don’t know what discussions and rows were going on behind the scenes

Whatever happened in the party, though resulted in the party offering a referendum and then embracing Brexit, following the result. Theresa May was continually pressured by the ERG, indeed she appeared to be far more scarred of them than the opposition. However a majority of Tory MP’s were openly in favour of remaining in the EU. By this point there were open rows in the party about what kind of Brexit should be delivered. May and the ERG quashed this repeatedly, splitting the party further.

By this point the issue was becoming polarised, the party and the population began to divide into leave and remain camps and serious discussion and argument increasingly became less and less possible as positions became entrenched.

Pro EU Tory’s found themselves in a position in which they had no choice but to back the government, whatever the government line. While the direction of Brexit was being steered by a small group at the top under intense pressure from a fanatical ERG. A handful of Tory MP’s could not accept this authoritarian line and others were thrown out of the party, the rest just kept their heads down and blindly supported the government whatever the dictat. As May’s Brexit began to founder a group of hardline anti EU Tory’s split from the May government and started to form behind Johnson. They recruited the vote leave campaigners and began to employ the populism which they had used to win the referendum.

This is where the Johnson camp crossed the line into ruthless populism. I’m sure that many Tory MP’s looked on in horror at these developments. But they had already sold their souls to this Brexit project and again put their heads down and kept quiet.

The fact that the government is now riding rough shod over the principles, values and integrity of the Conservative party and embracing power driven populism is a symptom of this crisis within the party. If there were no such crisis, there would be no populist coup. Onlookers and I’m sure party members can see the integrity of the party being torn up, that it is dividing the country and storing up untold social and political problems for the future. But feel powerless, or impotent to stop or moderate this rampant power grab.

It seems pretty psychotic to me.

Edit,
I thought I would add this article, which lays out the populism which the conservatives have embraced. A political strategy which trashes their reputation and reliability as a good/safe pair of hands in Governing the country. MP’s and supporters of the party, to an extent, have gone along with this, others haven’t and others feel betrayed.

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/06/17/boris-johnson-and-the-rise-of-make-believe/

I’ll reply tomorrow, I have explained my conclusion before, but as I know it is not agreed on by many, I will happily explain again.

The perfect storm is on the horizon. We have the three crisis happening at once. The effects of Brexit on trade with EU(fresh produce, just in time supply chains). The effects of COVID(massive economic upheaval) and now the knock on effects of the suez container pile up.
https://twitter.com/vivamjm/status/1405171792369627141?s=20

It feels as though we are about to go over the waterfall in a barrel. Just as we go into a third wave with the Johnson variant(Delta variant). Hold on tight and stock up on a few essentials.

Quite, I am ambivalent on the question of UK’s membership of EU in principle. But see the current situation as a train wreck and more about a psychotic episode in the Tory party, than any rational process about the UK’s position in world affairs.

In fact the train is shortly going to run out of track. Time to reach for the popcorn.

That article requires subscription to read. I wouldn’t support the telegraph because it is little more than a Brexiter pamphlet now.

Quite. I wonder where the philosophers congregate?

Yes, there aren’t any Brexit supporters now. I was being bold in my comment, party to flush out any Brexit supporters lurking.

Harsh words regarding the membership of a philosophy forum there. Surely there are plenty of amateur philosophers here.

You won’t find any Brexit supporters on a philosophy forum.

You give Johnson an inch, he will take a mile.

Anyway, any alternative to implementation of the protocol is no solution. Except, for NI leaving U.K. and rejoining IRL.
Perhaps you can describe such an alternative?

The problem for the EU is that if they make a concession the U.K. gov’ will grab it and ask for more while shouting even louder that the EU is bullying them and that the concession proves this. Because by admitting to the concession, they are admitting that the fault is with them.

Meanwhile Johnson is making hay in his culture war and EU blaming at home.

The best strategy for the EU, as is best in dealing with a bully, is to stand firm on what was negotiated. Because to concede won’t improve the situation, it will only deepen the crisis. It would give ammunition to those who seek to legitimise U.K. position and sully EU position. By dragging EU into a dirty slanging match.

Observers know who is the villain of the peace.

Things hotting up over NI protocol.
The government is squirming.

https://t.co/8fcBLs2SQH?amp=1

He added: "Devolution could work perfectly well if only the Conservatives were in charge in Scotland, which would make a triumphant success of it.

What you focus in on amounts to the same thing.
SNP are a failure, we know that they are now the dominant party, so by extension devolution is a failure because it has enabled SNP dominance.
Devolution would work if the Conservatives are in power in Scotland, well of course it would because they would also be in power in Westminster and they would conspire to keep the Scots happy while not enabling Scots to have a say in their affairs unless governed, viewed through a Tory lense.

I recognise the significance of the amendments to the Scotland act. It will be interesting to see if it has any teeth during the tussle over indyref2.

However I won’t be taking seriously anything spoken by a Tory after 2014. They have shown themselves to be disingenuous and self servingly devious after that.

I agree the abolishment of devolution is a not a policy, which I did not suggest, but the Tory’s will be looking to how they can bring Scotland to heal. An impossible task as far as I and many others can see.

In reference to the EU, the ambition of an ever closer Union has faded in recent years in the light of various crises. The development of EU wide policy has been a good thing for the Union as a whole and is focussed on means of cooperation in critical areas, rather than in any kind of arresting of political powers, or institutions. Also the UK has been free to negotiate opt out clauses and vetos.

So the criticisms and failures perceived in the minds of those in the UK about the EU are largely fabricated and have been groomed to transfer our own failures and inability to cooperate in the project of the EU onto the EU parliament.

This has been going on for many years and is fuelled by the right wing client press in the UK. Which has been drip feeding concocted and false narratives into the population for a generation.

If one is looking for genuine reasons for Brexit, it will inevitably lead back to the cancerous influence Murdoch. Alongside the failures in Blair’s government to manage the flows of Eastern European migrants following secession in 2004.

It is certainly not anything to do with the European Commission.

Now if we look at this Westminster/media bubble through the eyes of Scotland, particularly following the EU referendum. Is it any wonder Nicola Sturgeon is doing so well.

I’ve met some very Scottish people, more Scottish than I could have imagined, before I met them.

Your comparison of being ruled from Westminster being equal if not better than being ruled by the EU, in terms of freedoms of governance and autonomy, is absurd.

I am no expert on the powers Scotland has been given by Westminster, but it doesn’t give them much freedom. They still have to go cap in hand for most things. Just recently Jacob Rees Mogg said in the house that devolution is a failed project and that it is now time for its abolition. The same government has been saying in their anti EU rhetoric that we are controlled by the EU and that’s why we have to leave the EU. But in reality the EU is largely trying to regularise standards, regulations, tariffs and enjoy a customs Union between members. Allowing the establishment of the single market. Any notion of an EU superstate had receded years ago and of course we would always have had the right to veto.
Imagine if Scotland vetoed the abolition of devolution.

I understand your rationale, but remind you that this issue goes back at least 1000 years, in which there is a long history of the subjugation of Scotland by the English. We were led to believe that the act of Union which settled the matter was a voluntary Union of countries working together as one. Being voluntary, it is up to the people of member countries if they remain, or leave the Union.
Like you I wouldn’t want this to happen, I would gladly go back to how the world was before the referendum. But it was an act of constitutional upheaval which was inevitably going to have consequences. Something Cameron should have considered before calling the referendum.

Unfortunately we now have the circumstances where the break up of the Union is pretty much inevitable. Due to the clowns who have forced their way into Downing Street and are doing their Laurel and Hardy impersonation at our expense.

Looks like the debate has started.

Can Johnson say no?
If so, is it sustainable?

Thanks for linking to the channel4 article. Unfortunately I expect we will see more reports like that.

The double variant, and a triple.

Its the reality I’m afraid. Yes it is an unsourced tweet, but it describes a situation I have heard from a number of different sources over the last few days. There was a good discussion about it on Matt Frei’s slot on LBC yesterday (24th April, approx 11.30am).

There are people dying in the streets, cities with populations of millions where hospitals are in a state of collapse. Oxygen supplies all but exhausted. A black market for drugs which might help, etc.

Some harrowing stories come out of India.

https://twitter.com/akashstronaut/status/1385645544932929539?s=20

I couldn’t understand how India got off so lightly in the first wave. I was worried about them a year ago, I never expected my worst fears to come true a whole year later.

A catch up on Brexit Britain.
The trade situation is dire, small businesses are finding it expensive and with long delays, things getting lost etc, selling anything into EU. Larger companies are having to open warehouses, offices etc on the continent. Our imports are still not being checked, which is the only reason a lot of them are still coming in. Once they are following all the rules re’ imports, a lot will stop coming.
Good summary from Chris Grey.

https://t.co/MDaQlKMLNA?amp=1

Weird stuff.

I can only conclude that “infinity” is a figment of rational thought. Any notion that there is infinity other than this is beyond us to determine. Because everything about our existence indicates finiteness. I think there is confusion between endless sequences and infinite sequences. These may seem equivalent in thought, but when applied to existence they throw up weird philosophical conundrums. Suggesting they cannot realistically be applied in that way.

Index of business and jobs lost due to Brexit. This not exhaustive, but is a good illustration of the trends.
https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/the-digby-jones-index/

“Brexit is coming apart at the seams”

Good update by Chris Grey.
https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2021/02/brexit-is-coming-apart-at-seams.html

No, I don’t do anything like that, I’m mainly a cartoonist. The only other platform you’ll find me on is Twitter. #punshhh and I’m not the shady Russian on that tag, I’m the other one.

Oops, I should have said that the EU has banned the import of live shellfish from the UK. This will put the whole industry out of business.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/exclusive-eu-tells-british-shellfish-traders-that-a-post-brexit-export-ban-is-indefinite-not-temporary

The UK’s procurement was independent of the joint EU scheme. But this is nothing to do with Brexit, the UK would have been independent anyway if we were in the EU. The UK is more independent in this way. It was the experts in Oxford who made the vaccine in record time which presented the opportunity.

It is understandable that the EU reacted the way they did, it is an extreme global crisis. The UK government has been just as chaotic time after time. Also the reckless act of forcing the Brexit arrangements during a pandemic has destabilised relations between the UK and EU. This sort of thing will keep happening in the chaos. It was inevitable that there would be some delays in the EU vaccine procurement due to the size and number of countries involved. Within an hour of the triggering of article16 by an EU official the Irish prime minister and Von Deleyen on a conference call cancelled the action and defused the issue. Preferable to the headless chickens we have on this side of the channel.

I expect Johnson to trigger the same article any day now as the tsunami of Brexit chaos breaks. Today there are port officials in NI considering closing of ports due to aggression from couriers stuck due to NI protocol, making them unworkable. Today leaders of the fashion industry wrote to the PM saying that they are on the verge of collapse due to a total lack of preparation of any kind of agreement enabling fashion shows to go ahead, alongside a mountain of paperwork, just like the musician and artist crisis. Also the EU has just slapped a ban on tens of thousands of tonnes of shellfish which UK fishermen had to freeze, because they couldn’t ship them fresh, from being imported to the processing plants in the EU. All this chaos is going to explode at some point over the next few weeks.

Brexit dividends.

Yes trade with the EU has dropped by about half overnight. Different sectors hit as the penny drops. The fishing industry has virtually died and last week it was pig farmers and pork exports. When the sheep farmers go under in a few weeks the reckoning will start. mainstream UK media has kept quiet during January, you would think Brexit hadn’t happened.

Don’t be to hasty, I could give you a list as long as your arm of the political and administrative failures of the UK government in relation to Brexit. Including a threat from Johnson to trigger article 16 two weeks ago. Don’t forget who is the villain here.

Anyway the value of the EU is as an overarching agreement of cooperation and unity among the nations of Europe. Without it Europe would still be beset with squabbles, rivalries and even wars. Imagine the breakdown in relations between Britain and the EU multiplied 27 times. This is why the EU was created and in spite of its overbearing bureaucracy, it works and is a good foundation from which Europe can grow in mutual cooperation.

I recognised him when he said something about people having a few mega tonnes of nuclear weapons aimed down their throats. He said that before. I quite liked him, but I wasn’t exposed to the smut.

London has declared an emergency, I expect the army to be brought in now. I heard a virologist interviewed on the BBC just now saying that enough patients to fill a hospital are going into hospitals every day currently.

What I mean is I am of English heritage, but was born in Scotland while my parents were living there for only a few years, before moving back to England. While in the UK Scotland doesn’t have separate citizenship for Scots, everyone is classed as a British citizen. If Scotland becomes independent, I doubt I would have any problems in getting a Scottish passport.